Baltic Dry Index. 1621 +51
LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
Democracy is beautiful in theory; in practice it is a fallacy.
Benito Mussolini.
We open this
Friday with Japan off celebrating the Spring equinox, and Goldman getting a late
case of the jitters over China’s wobble. Whatever will the Muppets think? Buy
more!
"Those entrapped by the herd instinct are drowned in the deluges of history. But there are always the few who observe, reason, and take precautions, and thus escape the flood. For these few gold has been the asset of last resort."
Antony C. Sutton
March 20, 2014, 2:58 a.m. EDT
Goldman Sachs cuts China growth estimates
MADRID (MarketWatch) -- Goldman Sachs
has slashed its 2014 growth outlook for China to 7.3% from 7.6%, citing recent
trade and consumption-data disappointments. In a note dated Wednesday,
economist Li Cui and others said the government's reform agenda poses risks on
both sides, and March data will be important for early signs of recovery.
"We expect the government to navigate through another mini-cycle this
year, though with some tolerance of slightly lower growth than the official
target of 7.5%," said Cui. For 2015, Goldman expects growth of 7.6% versus
a prior forecast of 7.8%. Inflation, meanwhile, is seen at 2.6% for 2014, versus
a prior view of 3%, while its 2015 outlook on inflation is unchanged at 3%. The
Chinese government's official growth target for 2014 is 7.5%. Goldman joins a
string of other investment banks that have recently downgraded growth forecasts
for the country.
Next, the EUSSR
gets cold feet over sanctioning Russia. Playing lackey to Yankee Doodle Dandy increasingly
comes with a European cost. Europe’s courts aren’t quite as compliant as Uncle
Sam’s, and demand a higher standard of proof too. Still, while it won’t force
Russia out of the Crimea, it’ll soon be gold rush time for Europe’s lawyers. Polonium
tea anyone? Sadly in our new lawless 21st
century age, politicians on both sides of the Atlantic are going to come under sustained
media pressure to “do something” about Russia and the Ukraine. It’s going to be
a long weekend.
Just how successful
will Her Majesty’s weak coalition Government be in running Arsenal and Chelsea
Football Clubs, and anyway can they pass “the fit and proper person” standard
to own a Premier League football club, let alone two?
All within the state, nothing outside the state, nothing against the state.
Benito Mussolini.
March 20, 2014, 11:23 p.m. EDT
EU wary of imposing harsh sanctions on Russians
Successful legal
challenges against European Union sanctions over the past year have made
the bloc wary of taking aggressive actions against Russian businessmen and
companies as it works to contain Moscow's ambitions in Ukraine.
EU
leaders meeting in Brussels on Thursday agreed to apply asset freezes and visa
bans on 12 more Russian officials, but stopped short of penalizing any powerful
oligarchs or companies.
By
contrast, the U.S. earlier Thursday slapped sanctions on four of Russia's most
influential businessmen and a bank, saying that penalties could apply to anyone
who "has acted for or on behalf of, or that has provided material or other
support, to a senior Russian government official."
German
Chancellor Angela Merkel said legal concerns were the main reason leaders had
avoided targeting people outside Russia's political and military circles.
"We
in Europe are bound to having an obvious connection to Crimea-i.e. the offense
that is at the base of the sanctions. That's a different legal situation from
the U.S.," she told journalists after the meeting.
Concerns
over legal challenges to EU sanctions have increased over the past year after
the bloc's courts struck down financial sanctions against several individuals
and companies.
"The
Europeans are terrified of being challenged in court. The Americans aren't so
afraid of that," said Bill Browder, an American investor who has been a
stern Kremlin critic since his lawyer, Sergei Magnitsky, died in a Russian
prison in 2009.
In
July, the European Court of Justice, the EU's highest court,
said the bloc had to lift an asset freeze and travel ban on Saudi businessman
Yassin Qadi.
Mr.
Qadi had been included in a United Nations sanctions list shortly after the 9/11
attacks for allegedly financing al Qaeda-a claim that he repeatedly rejected.
The
court said the EU didn't provide enough evidence to prove its allegations and
had violated Mr. Qadi's right to property, a fair hearing and independent
judicial review.
"The
same principles that were established in the Qadi case will apply here,"
said Guy Martin, a partner at London-based law firm Carter Ruck, who
represented Mr. Qadi.
In
September, another EU court struck down sanctions decisions against seven
Iranian banks and shipping companies following a successful challenge by Iran's
Bank Mellat earlier in the year.
The
court ruled that the EU hadn't provided evidence the entities were tied to
Iran's nuclear program or were state-owned. But Brussels has now either
appealed the decisions or brought the firms under new sanctions.
A
European diplomat involved in crafting the sanctions against Russia said the
Qadi ruling, combined with the successful Iran cases, makes it more difficult
to bring extensive sanctions against Russians as the court will demand a higher
level of proof.
A
second diplomat said Germany, Italy, Spain and Finland were among the states
that raised legal concerns in EU sanctions talks.
Those
states have asked EU institutions to more closely examine legal risks, he
added.
The
EU has "to draft [Russian sanctions] carefully and keep these decisions in
the back of their mind," said Maya Lester, a sanctions lawyer at London
firm Brick Court Chambers, who cowrites the "European Sanctions"
legal blog.
Over
the past year, sanctions lawyers have also opened another front in their fight
against penalties and sued individual EU member states for damages for their
role in getting them on the bloc's sanctions list.
Until
now, individuals and companies had been limited to requesting damages from the
institutions that sanctioned them, claims that were generally limited to having
their legal costs repaid.
Suits
against national governments could bring about much bigger damage claims. Last
month, Iran's Bank Mellat, which had successfully fought off EU sanctions, then
sued the U.K. Treasury for some $4 billion in compensation for alleged lost
business.
In
its claim filed with London's Commercial Court, Bank Mellat argued the U.K.
government was liable for damages because it asked the EU to target the bank.
More
U.S. Targets Putin With Sanctions Against Gunvor Oil Billionaire
Mar 21,
2014 1:44 AM GMT
Barack Obama has
thrown a counterpunch at Vladimir Putin. The U.S. Treasury Department yesterday imposed sanctions on Russian oil billionaire Gennady Timchenko -- and alleged Putin has a direct financial interest in Gunvor Group Ltd., the businessman’s energy-trading company.
While Gunvor said that Timchenko had already sold his entire stake to his partner, Torbjorn Tornqvist, the U.S. action could still make oil producers, traders and banks reluctant to do business with the company, affecting billions of dollars of physical and derivatives contracts.
---- With 2012 revenue of $93 billion, Gunvor is one of the world’s largest commodity traders, employing more than 1,600 people and sourcing crude from more than 35 countries. Run from Geneva, Timchenko, 61, and fellow billionaire Tornqvist created Gunvor in 2000 to handle Russian crude shipments.
“Timchenko’s activities in the
energy sector have been directly linked to Putin,” the U.S. Treasury Department
said in a statement. “Putin has investments in Gunvor and may have access to
Gunvor funds.”
More
Gunvor Says Timchenko Sells Holding to Partner Tornqvist
Mar 20, 2014 7:50 PM GMT
Gunvor Group Ltd. said billionaire co-founder Gennady
Timchenko sold his entire stake in the oil trading company to partner
Torbjorn Tornqvist, in a transaction designed to prevent a disruption to its
operations. Tornqvist now holds 87 percent of the company, with senior managers controlling the rest, Gunvor said in an e-mailed statement today. There are no outside investors, the company said. The deal was done yesterday, according to the statement.
More
Roman Abramovich should face sanctions, says Vladimir Putin critic
Alexei Navalny, a leading critic of Vladimir Putin, says sanctions should be aimed at billionaire “oligarchs” with close links to the Russian president.
By Matthew Holehouse 9:40PM GMT
20 Mar 2014
David Cameron and Barack Obama were
facing calls on Thursday night to take financial action against Roman
Abramovich, the Chelsea FC owner, over Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
A prominent Russian opposition
politician said Western governments’ response to the Crimean crisis should include
seizing the assets of wealthy Russian businessmen, including Mr Abramovich and
Alisher Usmanov, a major shareholder in Arsenal FC.
So far, Western sanctions imposed
in protest at Russian aggression in Ukraine have fallen on Russian politicians
and officials.
But Alexei Navalny, a leading
critic of Vladimir Putin, said the sanctions should be aimed at billionaire
“oligarchs” with close links to the Russian president.
In an article in the New York Times, he called for
action against a list of businessmen including Mr Abramovich and Mr Usmanov.
Neither man has any public
connection to Mr Putin or the Russian government.
Mr Abramovich declined to
comment. He is understood to consider himself a private citizen with no
connection to the Russian government, meaning there should be no question of
sanctions being applied to him.
The White House on Thursday night
imposed sanctions on at least half the names on Mr Navalny’s list – including
Mr Putin’s right-hand man, Sergei Ivanov. However, neither Mr Abramovich nor Mr
Usmanov faces any action from US authorities. Nor has Britain taken any action
against them so far.
More
We end on a
sign of a coming war. Stay long fully paid up physical precious metals, held
outside of the larcenous reach of John Bull and Uncle Sam. Both have form, as
they say. There never was a problem a politician or a bureaucrat couldn’t make
worse. America’s botched Coup in Kiev at the moment, looks all too likely to
end up in war.
It would be so nice if something made sense for a change.
President Putin, with apologies to Alice and Lewis Carroll.
Companies in Russia Urged to Dust Off Evacuation Plans
Mar 20, 2014 2:24 PM GMT
U.S. companies with operations in Russia should
prepare for growing tensions by reviewing evacuation plans, tightening
cybersecurity and being alert for a spike in anti-American sentiment, according
to corporate-security analysts. Non-essential travel to the country should also be delayed, said Brian Michael Jenkins, senior adviser to the president of the RAND Corp., which is based in Santa Monica, California, and provides research to governments and companies.
Executives “have to anticipate some kind of cyber-assault,” Jenkins said in an interview. And they should be aware of graffiti or other signs of “palpable increase in anti-American sentiment” and be prepared to evacuate personnel.
U.S.-based companies are the largest source of foreign investment in Russia, primarily in technology and financial services, according to a 2013 report by Ernst & Young. Business interests in the nation have expanded after Russia joined the World Trade Organization in 2012, the report said.
---- While companies with investments in Russia, such as General Electric Co. (GE) and Boeing Co. (BA), are growing concerned, advisers say the current problems don’t warrant exiting the market.
“For now, everybody is holding their breath,” said Charles Hecker, global research director at Control Risks, a London-based group that says it helps companies operate in complex or hostile environments.
If U.S. sanctions ramp up, or the Ukraine crisis intensifies, the political tensions might pose a significant commercial threat to those companies operating in areas with greater political oversight, such as energy, he said.
---- Maurice Taylor, chairman of industrial tire maker Titan International Inc. (TWI), said he is watching the dispute closely. In October, a partnership of his Quincy, Illinois-based company, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and a Russian government fund invested $115 million to buy a Soviet-era tiremaker in Russia.
Taylor said he’s not sure how U.S. actions may impact his plans to make Voltyre-Prom more efficient and export tires to former Soviet bloc countries.
“There is no such thing as a perfectly safe deal,” Taylor, 69, said in a telephone interview. He said he plans to travel to Russia next month.
More
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-20/companies-in-russia-urged-to-dust-off-evacuation-plans.html
Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of state and corporate power.
Benito Mussolini.
At the Comex
silver depositories Thursday
final figures were: Registered 52.86 Moz, Eligible 129.98 Moz, Total 182.84 Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
'Curiouser and curiouser. The tale of the London Whale that became
a Canary. Did J.P. Morgan fire Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout, just to get them
out of easy to extradite UK? They wouldn’t do that would they. Who knew what
and when, in Manhattan, and what did they do after they knew?
Grout’s lawyer,
Marc Weinstein, said Grout had returned to his native France not to flee
authorities but because he could no longer afford to live in London after
getting fired from J.P. Morgan. He took up his parents’ offer to move to their
family’s country home, the lawyer said.
Trader charged in London Whale debacle fires back at U.K. regulator
March 20, 2014, 10:50 AM
Javier Martin-Artajo stands accused in J.P. Morgan’s London Whale trading
loss, but he keeps coming out swinging.The trader last week filed a claim against the Financial Conduct Authority, a U.K. financial regulator. It’s not clear exactly what his claim might be. As Bloomberg News points out, the FCA did fine J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. JPM -0.10% over the $6.2 billion trading loss, but its report didn’t mention Martin-Artajo by name. The FCA’s website merely says that he has filed a claim, and that a hearing has not been set. His lawyer, Bill Leone, didn’t immediately return a call for comment.
Whatever the case, it’s the latest
indication that the London Whale scandal — which is coming up on its two-year
anniversary and has cost J.P. Morgan dearly in the form of fines, regulatory
trust and other headaches — is hardly harpooned.
Martin-Artajo, along with another
former J.P. Morgan trader, Julien Grout, also faces a civil lawsuit in the U.S.
from the Securities and Exchange Commission, and a criminal lawsuit from the
Justice Department.
Both agencies are frustrated that
the men are still in Europe and haven’t appeared in the U.S. to face the
claims: Martin-Artajo is in Spain, and Grout in France. The SEC has called the
men “fugitives from justice,” sought access to their personal email accounts,
and said the two men shouldn’t get access to evidence that the government has
collected.
Both men are fighting the
charges. They’ve laid blame on Bruno Iksil, the so-called London Whale, who is
cooperating with the government.
Their lawyers have also disputed
descriptions that they are hiding from the law. Leone, Martin-Artajo’s lawyer,
said in a hearing this year that the trader did not flee London for Spain after
he learned of the charges, but was in Spain because he has family there and is
a citizen. Martin-Artajo presented himself to Spanish authorities “to initiate
and conduct extradition proceedings,” Leone said at a hearing this year.
At the same hearing, Grout’s
lawyer, Marc Weinstein, said Grout had returned to his native France not to
flee authorities but because he could no longer afford to live in London after
getting fired from J.P. Morgan. He took up his parents’ offer to move to their
family’s country home, the lawyer said.
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/03/20/trader-charged-in-london-whale-debacle-fires-back-at-u-k-regulator/
Another weekend and likely a long one for Messrs Obama, Cameron and Merkel.
Don't just sit
there like a bump on a log, do something, anything! Press something. To
placate the shrill screaming from the war party, over the botched Coup in Kiev,
Curly, Moe and Larry must now put the
toothpaste back in the tube or die trying. Have a great Spring weekend
everyone. What could possibly go wrong next week?
"Were we to be directed from Washington when to sow and when to reap, we should soon want bread."
Thomas Jefferson
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished February.
DJIA: +203 Up. NASDAQ: +353 Up. SP500: +255 Up.
The new Fed bubble continues, what could possibly go wrong?
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