Monday 24 March 2014

Cold War Heats Up.



Baltic Dry Index. 1599 -22

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

All treaties between great states cease to be binding when they come in conflict with the struggle for existence.

Count Otto von Bismarck.

Following the USA-German botched Coup in Kiev, that allowed Russia to get back the Crimea Peninsula virtually without firing a shot or paying a dime, we appear to be getting “conditioned” in the media, for a war with Russia over the Ukraine. What was supposed to have happened in Kiev, was that the Ukraine’s elected pro-Russian president would be forced into ceding power to the Parliament, becoming a token President until the next election returned the result Berlin and Washington wanted. A repeat election tactic often used in the EUSSR. The newly empowered Parliament would then be encouraged by America, the EU and NATO, financially and otherwise, to enter into an EU and NATO “association agreement,” as a first step to becoming a full member of both. Russian defence in depth would be compromised. In time, it would be the US Navy stationed in Sevastopol rather than the Russian Navy. Russia would then be salami sliced up over the coming decades.

The botched Coup ruined it all, there is now no legitimate elected government in the Ukraine, though that doesn’t matter for what comes next.  So now the War Party must do it the hard way, and condition a sceptical western public for a “war to save the Ukraine.” Stay long fully paid up physical gold and silver held outside of the USA and Great Britain. Sensible investors will not now hold unallocated gold in the London Bullion Market Association, where the likelihood of a default is high in any coming war. It’s sheer madness of course, but it seems that we all must now make preparations to financially survive the coming war. Poor Ukrainians and Russians, of course, must make preparations just to survive the coming war. Fiat currencies anyone, they’re what make forever war possible.

Anyone who has ever looked into the glazed eyes of a soldier dying on the battlefield will think hard before starting a war.

Count Otto von Bismarck.

Ukraine’s Top Diplomat Says Risk of War With Russia Grows

Mar 24, 2014 4:01 AM GMT
Ukraine’s foreign minister said the risk of war with Russia was growing as President Barack Obama prepared to travel to Europe amid calls from U.S. lawmakers for more Western support for the Kiev government.

U.S. officials said Russian troops are massed along virtually the entire Ukrainian border and have about doubled in number from when Moscow’s defense ministry first announced military exercises near Ukraine.

Ukrainians are prepared to “defend their homeland,” Foreign Minister Andrii Deshchytsia said in an interview broadcast yesterday on ABC-TV’s “This Week” program.

“This situation is becoming even more explosive than it used to be a week ago,” Deshchytsia said.

Obama is to travel to the Netherlands today on the first leg of a six-day trip. While focusing on diplomatic and economic tools, he has joined European leaders in warning of further consequences if Russia continues its incursion.

----Senator Kelly Ayotte, a New Hampshire Republican on the Armed Services Committee who was visiting Kiev yesterday, called for increasing sanctions on Russia and sending small arms and other military aid to Ukraine.

“What we can do is strengthen NATO’s presence, particularly in the countries surrounding Ukraine, and also provide assistance to the Ukrainian military,” Ayotte said in an interview with CBS’s “Face the Nation” program.

While there’s no need to consider American troops on the ground in Ukraine, Ayotte said, the U.S. should provide communications equipment, technical assistance and small arms.

----Representative Mike Rogers, a Michigan Republican who heads the House intelligence committee, said the Obama administration must reassess its thinking about Putin and give up on a reset of U.S.-Russia relations.

Putin “goes to bed at night thinking of Peter the Great and he wakes up thinking of Stalin,” Rogers said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” program, in an interview from Tbilisi, Georgia.

“We need to be a little bit tougher with Putin, or he is going to continue to take territory to fulfill what he believes is rightfully Russia,” Rogers said.

Senator Robert Menendez of New Jersey, the Democratic chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, called for an “urgent re-examination” of U.S. and European policies toward Russia in a March 22 speech at the Brussels Forum, an annual meeting of U.S. and European officials.

“In my view, Putin has miscalculated,” Menendez said. “He has reignited a dangerous, pre-1991, Soviet-style game of Russian roulette with the international community, and we cannot blink.”
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Leaders Gather on Ukraine as West Warns on Russian Troops

Mar 23, 2014 10:01 PM GMT
World leaders are gathering in The Hague to discuss tensions over Ukraine as Western nations express growing concern that Russia is massing soldiers on its neighbor’s border.

Leaders of the U.S., the European Union, China, Japan and others meet today, with President Barack Obama seeking to mobilize opposition to Russia’s incursion into Crimea. U.K. Foreign Secretary William Hague wrote in the Sunday Telegraph yesterday that Russia’s troop buildup means there’s a “grave risk” the crisis will deepen, calling the situation the “most serious risk” to European security in the 21st century.

As Russian President Vladimir Putin completed the annexation of Crimea and the two sides exchanged sanctions, attention shifted to whether Russia would seek to claim other parts of Ukraine. The Kremlin agreed to international monitors arriving in Ukraine for six-month mission to cool tensions in the worst standoff with the West since the Cold War.

----U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s top commander, yesterday called Russia’s troop presence at Ukraine’s border “very, very sizable and very, very credible.”

“We have to be positioned differently and be more ready,” Breedlove told a conference in Brussels. “We have continued to try to make a partner of Russia and now it’s very clear that Russia is acting much more like an adversary than a partner.”

U.S. intelligence and military officials said there are now Russian troops on virtually all of the country’s border with Ukraine. Some units have moved within 31 miles of the border, said the officials, who requested anonymity to discuss classified intelligence reports.

Russian troops in some sectors, including near corridors leading to major Ukrainian cities, have been reinforced with armor, attack airplanes and helicopters, the officials said. There are also signs that the troops are receiving substantial logistical support, which could signal preparations for sustained operations, they said.
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Keep British army in Germany to send message to Putin, says Lord Dannatt

Former military head calls for 3,000 extra troops to be recruited and based in Germany to tell Russia the West is not weak

Britain should make a “military statement” to Russia by retaining 3,000 soldiers in Germany in a reverse of planned defence cuts, the former head of the Army says on Monday.

Amid fears of further Kremlin land grabs in Ukraine, Lord Dannatt warns that with a “resurgent Russia” it is a poor time for the West to be “weak in resolve and muscle”.

He says in an article for The Telegraph that “greater military capability” must underpin diplomacy in crises such as those in Ukraine and Syria, and that maintaining a British presence in Germany would send that message.

As world leaders prepare to eject Russia from the G8 club of economic powers on Monday, the former Chief of the General Staff says that Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, will be looking beyond financial sanctions to see where “the real check on his actions might come from”.
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Russia Staring at Recession on Sanctions

Mar 23, 2014 8:01 PM GMT
Western sanctions are pushing Russia toward recession and the pain could intensify if U.S. and European leaders turn the screw over tensions in Ukraine.

Banks including state-run VTB Capital say the world’s ninth-biggest economy will shrink for at least two quarters as penalties for annexing Crimea rattle markets, curb investment and raise the cost of borrowing. Sanctions that have so far focused on individuals via visa bans and asset freezes may be expanded to target specific areas of the economy.

President Vladimir Putin sent his popularity surging to a five-year high by making Crimea a part of Russia again after 60 years and says he won’t be swayed by foreign retaliation. Even so, the costs of the decision are starting to unfold, with Russian stocks this year’s worst performers and the economy set to suffer more than the West, Mircea Geoana, Romania’s government representative for diplomacy and economic projects.

“We’re witnessing the start of a new geopolitical and economic Cold War and I think it will take at least two to three years to establish some sort of equilibrium,” he said. “The ones who’ll pay the bill for this aggression, no matter how popular and patriotic it looks, will be the Russian people because there’s a huge difference between the economic force of the EU and the U.S. and that of Russia.”

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Billionaire Sought by U.S. Holds Key to Putin Gas Cash

Mar 23, 2014 8:00 PM GMT
A detained billionaire who made a fortune as a middleman in Russia’s murky gas trade with Ukraine may hold the key for U.S. lawmakers seeking harsher sanctions against President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle.

Ukrainian Dmitry Firtash, arrested in Vienna this month on an American warrant for bribery and other charges, may hand over a treasure trove of information about deals involving Russian state gas exporter OAO Gazprom (GAZP) that the U.S. would consider corrupt, said Mikhail Korchemkin, a former analyst for the Soviet Union’s Gas Ministry in Moscow and founder of Malvern, Pennsylvania-based East European Gas Analysis.

After Putin seized Ukraine’s southern Crimea region, a U.S. Senate panel approved a bill on emergency funding for the country that would widen the scope of sanctions to include any Russian involved in “significant” corruption.

“This law would enable the U.S. to go after any member of Putin’s entourage,” Masha Lipman, an analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center, said by phone. “The point is to deepen the fractures within the Russian elite. The idea is to weaken Putin so he can be contained.”

----Firtash, 48, built his fortune as a broker of Russia's gas sales to Ukraine, one of Gazprom’s biggest export markets. He and a partner owned half of RosUkrEnergo, which was founded in 2004 and emerged as Ukraine’s sole gas importer in 2006 to 2009, between price disputes with Russia that led to supply halts and shortages across Europe.

Gazprom oversaw the other half of RosUkrEnergo, which Ukraine’s security service in 2005 said may be indirectly controlled by Semion Mogilevich, an organized crime suspect on the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation’s most-wanted list. Firtash has repeatedly denied any link between Mogilevich and RosUkrEnergo. A lawyer for Mogilevich, who lives in Moscow, said his client has never been in business with Firtash.

Still, the former U.S. ambassador in Kiev, William Taylor, said Firtash himself told him that he needed Mogilevich’s permission to get into the lucrative gas business with Gazprom, according to a secret cable to the Central Intelligence Agency that was published by Wikileaks and dated Dec. 10, 2008.
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24 March 2014Last updated at 06:12

Russian troops 'overrun Crimea's Feodosia naval base'

Russian troops have seized control of a Crimean naval base at Feodosia, the third such attack in 48 hours, Ukrainian officials have told the BBC.

Defence spokesman Vladislav Seleznyov said the Russians attacked the base from two directions using armoured personnel carriers and stun grenades.

He said they rounded up the Ukrainians and tied the hands of their officers.

Russia has taken over most of Ukraine's military bases in Crimea, tightening its grip on the peninsula.

A soldier at the Feodosia base told Reuters news agency that shots had been fired and confirmed that the base had been taken over.
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In other news, another red flag from China. What’s good for America’s goose may also be good for China’s gander.  As NATO sets out to fight Russia, with China settle old scores with Japan? A good foreign adventure might be just what the ailing Chinese economy needs.

People never lie so much as after a hunt, during a war or before an election.

Count Otto von Bismarck.

China Manufacturing Gauge Falls as Slowdown Deepens
By Bloomberg News Mar 24, 2014 5:53 AM GMT
China’s manufacturing industry weakened for a fifth straight month, according to a preliminary measure for March released today, deepening concern the nation will miss its 7.5 percent growth target this year.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics dropped to 48.1, compared with the 48.7 median estimate of 22 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News and February’s final 48.5 figure. Numbers above 50 signal expansion.

Chinese stocks rebounded from initial losses on speculation that weakening growth will prompt policy makers to reconsider their aversion to broad stimulus measures. Leaders face a balancing act of reining in credit expansion that’s fueled the risk of loans going bad, while averting an economic slump that raises the odds of higher unemployment.

“The old growth engine is losing steam,” said Chen Xingdong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas SA in Beijing, whose estimate of 48.0 was one of the three closest to the result
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The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood.

Count Otto von Bismarck.

At the Comex silver depositories Friday final figures were: Registered 52.86 Moz, Eligible 129.68 Moz, Total 182.54 Moz.  

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

No crooks or bent politicians today, just a reflection on an environmental accident 25 years on. I wonder how Fukushima will look 25 years on from 2011? Or the Gulf of Mexico after the Deepwater Horizon inept, uneccessary disaster? 

Exxon Valdez - 25 years after the Alaska oil spill, the court battle continues

Exxon Valdez, a massive oil tanker, foundered on rocks as it sailed out of port in one of the worst environmental disasters in history - affecting one of the most beautiful, wildlife-rich spots in the world. 25 years on, Joanna Walters has spoken to the coastguard, campaigners and residents about their memories of March 24, 1989

By Joanna Walters, New York 2:03PM GMT 23 Mar 2014
Mark Delozier remembers the crisp, clear night as if it was yesterday. He was a coastguard officer in Alaska when he got a call, just after midnight. 

"You need to come in. The Exxon Valdez is aground on Bligh Reef and leaking oil," the message said.

It was March 24 1989, a quarter of a century ago on Monday. The massive oil tanker had foundered on rocks as it sailed out of port, and was about to unleash one of the worst environmental disasters in history upon one of the most beautiful, wildlife-rich spots in the world.

As Mr Delozier steered his small boat towards the stricken vessel, the stink of oil fumes filled the air and gurgling gobs of crude bubbled up and leapt four feet out of the sea.

"I thought that with a spark from our engine we could explode, then it occurred to me that the Exxon Valdez herself might blow," he told The Telegraph.

He kept going, however, boarded the tanker safely and encountered its captain, Joseph Hazelwood, in the wheelhouse.

"I could smell alcohol. Spirits. It was in his breath, coming into my face, very strong," said Mr Delozier, who later testified about it in court.

Minutes earlier Capt Hazelwood had put an unqualified junior officer at the wheel and left the bridge. The ship, steering wide to avoid ice, failed to turn back into the shipping lane in time – and slammed into the reef.

The Exxon Valdez's hull ripped open, hours after leaving its namesake port of Valdez in south-east Alaska, and more than 11 million gallons of black crude gushed into the pristine waters of Prince William Sound.

Oil reached beaches 650 miles away. Killer whales, eagles, otters, seals and thousands of sea birds died excruciating deaths while Alaska's famous salmon and herring were ruined. The pictures of distressed animals expiring and grief-stricken locals trying to scrub beaches coated with toxic filth shocked the world.

The event is still seared into the minds of those who witnessed it, even a quarter of a century later. But the Exxon Valdez has left more than memories.

On the anniversary, state senator Berta Gardner is pushing for Alaskan politicians to demand that the US government forces ExxonMobil Corporation to pay up a final $92 million (£57 million), in what has become the longest-running environmental court case in history. The money would primarily be spent on addressing the crippled herring numbers and the oiled beaches.

Richard Keil, a senior media relations adviser at ExxonMobil, said: "The overwhelming consensus of peer-reviewed scientific papers is that Prince William Sound has recovered and the ecosystem is healthy and thriving."

But federal scientists estimate that between 16,000 and 21,000 gallons of oil from the spill lingers on beaches in Prince William Sound and up to 450 miles away, some of it no more biodegraded than it was at the time of the disaster.

----But if you poke around on many beaches, Exxon Valdez oil remains.

Gail Irvine is a scientist with the US Geological Survey, based in Anchorage, Alaska, who analyses oil along the coastline up to 450 miles west of Valdez, including national parks and wildlife preserves. The beaches were ostensibly cleaned up, but oil loiters stubbornly among rocks and between tide marks.

"The oil mixes with seawater and forms an emulsion. It's like mayonnaise," she said. "Left out, the surface crusts over but the inside still has the consistency of mayonnaise – or mousse."

Residual oil in Prince William Sound itself is more liquid and quickly fills a hole dug in the beach. Researchers were amazed when tests showed the oil has barely broken down.

Mussels on the rocks contain traces of Exxon Valdez oil. Before the spill they were gathered for subsistence by local Inuit villagers. They are still eaten by oyster catchers, brightly-coloured harlequin ducks and sea otters, with the latter also digging for clams.
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Fukushima water decontamination might be suspended indefinitely

via RT.com / March 20, 2014 / Treatment of radioactive water at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant might be indefinitely suspended after malfunctions crippled the water purification process and recontaminated thousands of tons of partially purified water, Japanese media reported.

The failure in the system, known as the Advanced Liquid Processing System (ALPS), is the latest setback in Tokyo Electric Power Co.’s (TEPCO) uphill battle to stockpile radioactive water, which is ballooning at a rate of 400 tons per day.

TEPCO said up to 900 tons of water, which had not been sufficiently cleaned in the ALPS equipment, flowed into a network of 21 tanks that were holding 15,000 tons of treated water. Not only have the 21 tanks been rendered unusable, but all 15,000 tons of previously cleaned water will now have to be retreated.

While efforts are underway to measure the full extent of the contamination, TEPCO officials said the problem was not noticed prior to March 18 because no abnormalities were detected in water sampled on March 14, Japan’s Asashi Shimbun daily reports.

“We never expected radioactive water to flow into the storage tanks,” Masayuki Ono, acting general manager of TEPCO’s Nuclear Power & Plant Siting Division, told the paper. “We should have been better prepared. We have no idea how long it will take to clean them if we decided to do so.”
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"Gold would have value if for no other reason than that it enables a citizen to fashion his financial escape from the state."

William F. Rickenbacker.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished February.

DJIA: +203 Up. NASDAQ: +353 Up. SP500: +255 Up. The new Fed bubble continues, what could possibly go wrong?

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