Baltic Dry Index. 1412 -84
LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
Isn’t
Manual Labour a Spanish waiter? And Hertz van Rental a Dutch artist?
Anon. How to get kicked out of the EU.
We’re saved!
Saved once again! Saved by those devilishly clever Iberian oilmen, the
“European Texans” with the European “Californian coast.” Champagne corks were
popping all across Euroland on Wednesday, when man-made global warming, looney
leftist, UK Guardian newspaper, reported
that newly discovered oil off Spain might generate 250,000 jobs by 2065.
Reporting on the manna from heaven report published by auditor Deloitte, the
Guardian gushed that Spain could become a gas exporter, just like President
Putin’s doghouse Russia, though we might have to wait until 2031. By then, if
it’s God’s will, I will be 81 or 82, and unlikely to care much if Spain
replaces Russia in holding the EUSSR to ransom.
Below, the
news that stopped President Putin dead in his tracks, Wednesday. Now will he
give back the Crimea and swear fealty to Washington and its King Barry Obama
the Good, and his bag carrying, Pantomime underboss, U-turn Cameron the Bad?
Q:
How many Spaniards does it take to change a light bulb.
A:
Just Juan
Spain's oil deposits and fracking sites trigger energy gold rush
Spain's oil deposits and fracking sites trigger energy gold rush
Major offshore oil discoveries and prospects for shale gas
extraction are generating excitement – and resistance
Wednesday 26 March 2014 16.02 GMT
Spain is already the world's largest olive oil producer but now it's looking to a very different kind of oil to pull it out of economic decline: petroleum.The discovery of two significant offshore deposits, and prospects for fracking in many areas, have triggered a black-gold rush, with demand for exploration permits up 35% since 2012.
A report published this week by Deloitte says the oil industry could create 250,000 jobs and constitute 4.3% of GDP by 2065. The report is based on an estimate of 2bn barrels of oil and 2.5bn cubic metres of gas.
The oil companies estimate that the deposits in a series of oilfields off the Canaries, the latest of which was confirmed last week, amount to 500m barrels of crude.
Deloitte predicts that Spain could become a gas exporter by 2031 while producing 20% of the oil it consumes.
With 6 million people unemployed and an economy that shows only feeble signs of recovery, the Spanish government seems ready to brush aside environmental concerns and give the green light to the oil companies.
These are led by the Aberdeen-based oil and gas exploration company Cairn Energy and the Anglo-Turkish firm Genel Energy, headed by the former BP boss Tony Hayward. So far, 70 licences have been granted to explore both shale gas and conventional resources.
The main offshore deposits lie between Lanzarote, in the Canary Islands, and Morocco, and in the Bay of Valencia, close to Ibiza. As both the Canaries and Ibiza are places of great natural beauty whose principal industry is tourism, there is intense opposition to the plans.
Opposition is so fierce in Ibiza that the Eivissa diu no (Ibiza says no) movement has succeeded in creating a united front across the entire political spectrum, taking in environmental groups and hoteliers, and has won the support of celebrities such as Kate Moss, Sienna Miller, Fatboy Slim and Paris Hilton, who wrote on Instagram: "Don't let them ruin one of the most beautiful islands in the world." The record producer and rapper Puff Daddy described the plans as "a disaster on every level".
More
Next up,
Japan. Does history repeat? On Tuesday next, Japan is about to find out when
their sales tax jumps from 5 percent to 8 percent. One last weekend of manic
shopping ahead to beat the coming sales tax hike.
March 28, 2014, 2:01 a.m. EDT
Japan steps off the tax cliff Tuesday — Can it survive?
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — The
year was 1996. Japan had gone from a rising economic superpower to a nation in
decline, mired in what would be known as “The Lost Decade.”
And yet a recovery seemed just
around the corner, as most economic indicators were popping back up to levels
last seen during the heyday of the 1980s boom.
The late Ryutaro Hashimoto was
prime minister at the time, and with an eye to shoring up Japan’s finances, he
decided to raise the consumption tax — a sort of national sales tax that covers
almost all goods and services — by two percentage points to 5% at the start of
the new fiscal year in April 1997.
The result was unmitigated
recession, dashing any hope that Japan would quickly return to its rapid growth
of the previous decade. And while some of this was likely due to the Asian
financial crisis that broke out several months later, the tax hike has taken
much of the blame. Until recently, the idea of another consumption-tax increase
was inextricably linked to the idea of economic retreat.
Unfortunately, Japan is also
facing a huge public-debt load, at around 225% of annual GDP in 2013. Also, the
nation could really use a corporate-tax cut — the Nikkei Asian Review cites
data showing Japan’s effective corporate-tax rate is well above that in the
U.S., U.K. and France, and is more than double what Germany charges.
To cut the debt and to pay for a
possible easing of the corporate tax at some point down the road, Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe is set to raise the consumption tax for the second time in
Japanese history.
And not just one hike either:
While the rate will go to 8% from its current 5% on Tuesday, the government is
planning another hike to 10% in October 2015 if all goes well with the April
increase.
But will Japan’s economy survive
the shock?
More
While we
wait for Spain’s “Texans” to get on with saving the EUSSR and the world with a
new era of cheap oil and gas by 2065, we close for the week noticing that
America is about to run out of soybeans, thanks to rising demand for pork in
China, while this year’s Spring planting season in America looks likely to get
off to less than a stellar start in much of the northern grain belt. Not to
worry though, we can always rely on the Ukraine, Brazil, and Argentina for
wheat and soybeans, right? Plus QE Forever and ZIRP to put meat and potatoes on
our plates, a chicken in every pot.
Below, a
food inflation crisis is brewing. Will McDonald’s have to put steak on the
menu?
“He [your candidate here] had just about enough intelligence to open his
mouth when he wanted to eat, but certainly no more.”
With apologies to P. G. Wodehouse.
Chinese Pigs Eating Soybeans Cut U.S. Supply to 1965 Low
Mar 27, 2014 2:49 AM GMT
In the 60 years that Ursa Farmers
Cooperative has been loading Midwest soybeans onto boats along the Mississippi
River, business has never been this good.
Barge convoys are heading south
along the world’s busiest inland waterway to New Orleans export depots at a
record pace as demand surges from pig farmers in China, the largest pork-eating
country. Soy stockpiles in the U.S., where farmers harvested the third-largest
crop ever just six months ago, are the lowest relative to demand in at least
five decades, fueling the second-biggest rally in prices to start the year
since 2005.
“Our soybean supplies will be
empty by the end of April,” said Scott Meyer, grain department manager at the
Ursa, Illinois-based terminal owner, which loads about 35 million bushels of
crops annually. “Chinese demand for soybeans was a lot stronger than everyone
expected this year.”
---- Stockpiles of soybeans on March 1 probably dropped to 987 million bushels (26.9 million metric tons), the smallest for this time of year in a decade, according to the average of 30 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Reserves will be equal to 30 percent of estimated annual use and exports of 3.319 billion bushels, the lowest ratio for this time of year since at least 1965, U.S. Department of Agriculture data show.
The agency will update its quarterly crop-inventory estimates on March 31.
Since Sept. 1, shipments of U.S. soybeans jumped to 39.7 million tons, up 22 percent from a year earlier and almost reaching the government forecast for 41.64 million tons for the entire 12 months ending Aug. 31, according to the USDA. Two thirds of those shipments ended up in China, the biggest buyer, with exports reaching 26.494 million tons, topping the previous record of 24.464 million tons three years earlier.
Pork production has surged 38 percent in China since 2000, now accounting for more than half of global output, as the nation’s expanding economy boosted incomes and people were able to afford to eat more protein. To feed the world’s largest hog herd, livestock producers import U.S. soybeans that were as much as $7 a bushel cheaper than Chinese supplies in January, based on cash prices in the Gulf of Mexico.
“Chinese demand for U.S. beans was so strong, so early that it simply depleted supply,” said Randy Mittelstaedt, the director of research for R.J. O’Brien & Associates in Chicago. Compounding the inventory drain was better-than-expected demand from Europe, hoarding of supply by Argentine farmers and a smaller crop in India, he said.
---- The outlook for Brazil’s crop has been reduced after hot, dry weather in the east and too much rain in the central growing region in February. After predicting a 90 million-ton harvest in February, Brazil’s government forecaster, Conab, said March 12 output will be 85.4 million.
Farmers in Argentina, the biggest
shipper of soybean meal and soybean oil, withheld supplies until last month,
waiting for a devaluation of the peso against the dollar. Many store soybeans
to hedge against inflation as they are paid in pesos at a dollar value by
exporters and processors. Chicago soybean-meal futures are up 13 percent this
year.
More
Corn, soybeans look to extend gains as weather threatens planting season
March 26, 2014, 12:44 PM
AccuWeather.com predicts that lingering effects of the winter will cause
planting delays. That may mean further price gains for corn and soybeans, which
are already among the bigger gainers in the commodities market — up around 12%
each this year.“While the South will be right on schedule weather-wise for prime planting with looming frost concerns, delays will become more and more likely with every mile heading north,” AccuWeather said in its Spring 2014 Planting Forecast report issued Wednesday.
“Damp soil leftover from winter, melting snow and lagging temperatures mean a lot of places are going to have a slow planting period across the Midwest, northern Plains and the Great Lakes,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dale Mohler said.
With corn CK4 -0.26% and soybeans SK4 -0.21% being the largest crops in the Midwest and the Plains, which are planted typically in April and May, one of the most influential factors in when to plant is soil temperature, and “soil temperatures must be warm enough to support whatever crop you are planting,” Mohler said. For corn that’s 50 degrees Fahrenheit or above and for soybeans it’s 54 degrees Fahrenheit or above, he said.
But after the harsh, record-breaking cold and snow, meteorologists are concerned that with the ground still frozen in the Ohio Valley and Upper Midwest, it may take longer for the frost to thaw out of the ground and that could keep soil temperatures lower longer, AccuWeather said.
This spring is also the second in a row with a severe drought for western Texas through central California and that’ll take a toll on the planting season too, the weather forecasting service said.
“This time last year farmers were already in the field,” said Mitch Kasper, managing principal with Midwest AG Investors, but in the Midwest, “with cold weather this week, and 20-30 inches of frost in most areas, we are in danger for a very late planting.”
“The root systems need time to mature before the hot summer weather hits,” he said. “Late planting makes the plants much more likely to be damaged later in the season.
March 27, 2014, 9:18 a.m. EDT
10 things steakhouses won’t tell you
These days, it’s distressingly rare to get a meal that’s well done
Got beef?
Despite the sluggish economy and warnings about the health consequences of
eating too much red meat, steakhouses have more than held their own in recent
years. For 2014, sales in the premium steak-restaurant category are projected
to grow 3.2%, compared with 2% for the broader full-service chain-restaurant
category, according to market researcher IBISWorld. Moreover, some steakhouse
chains have been in expansion mode: Since the mid ’90s, the Capital Grille,
which is part of the Darden DRI -1.22%
family of restaurants, has gone from just a handful of locations in the
Northeast to more than 50 spread across 20-plus states.
The
problem with all this growth? There are concerns there may not be enough
quality beef to go around, given that the best steakhouses typically serve
USDA-graded prime, which accounts for just 3% of the total supply in the
country. What’s more, the boom undermines the idea of steakhouses as unique
destinations for special occasions. “It’s a sea of sameness,” says Mat
Mandeltort, a veteran restaurant professional who’s a manager with Eby-Brown,
an Illinois-based food-service company.
More
March 18, 2014, 9:38 a.m. EDT
Tomorrow’s hamburger may cost as much as today’s steak
Beef prices expected to rise through 2016
Beef: It’s what you
can’t afford for dinner — for years to come.
Retail
beef prices have climbed once again. From January to February, the prices that
consumers paid for meat, poultry fish and egg climbed 1.2% (and over the past
12 months, 4%), according to government
data ; that’s compared with 0.4% (and 1.4%) for food overall. The data
shows that urban consumers paid an average of nearly $3.56 per pound for 100%
ground beef.
What’s
more, experts say that climbing beef prices are here to stay. The USDA’s
Economic Research Service projects that beef prices will rise faster than almost anything else this
year. Don Close, a cattle economist with Rabo AgriFinance says he thinks prices
this year could rise 7% to 8% and roughly the same amount in 2015. Kevin Good,
a senior analyst at cattle research firm CattleFax, says that “higher prices
will continue through 2015 or 2016.”
Good says that ground beef may
see especially steep price hikes. He thinks that while steak retail prices
could climb 5% to 10% in 2014, ground beef could climb 10% to 15%.
So what’s with the sky-high beef
prices? The bigger beef bills have been partially due to the fact that the
cattle herd in the U.S. — the largest beef producer in the world — fell to an
estimated 63-year low, according to a Bloomberg survey.
More
Where's the Beef
At the Comex
silver depositories Thursday
final figures were: Registered 53.18 Moz, Eligible 127.66 Moz, Total 180.84 Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
As Great Britain stumbles and bumbles its way towards a Scottish
independence referendum later this September, they should have called in Vlad
the Bad to organise one of the instant ones, we present a poem from the history
of the Irish Home Rule debacle of the 1880s.
It is
never difficult to distinguish between a Scotsman with a grievance and a ray of
sunshine.
P.
G.Wodehouse.
United Kingdom they fancied
wouldn't do.
To please some grumbling Irishmen they split it in two.
Two little kingdoms, but then the Scots, you see,
Claimed their ancient throne and rights, then there were three.
Three little kingdoms but then one more,
For Welshmen claimed a Parliament and then there were four.
Four little kingdoms wouldn't do it all!
One of them was too big; the others were too small.'
And this is the price we'll pay
Take a lesson from your history.
'Divide and conquer is the game we play.'
And this is the price we'll pay.
'All across Great Britain ancient hates revived.
Cornwall wants to rule herself, and then there were five.
Five little kingdoms, but London in a fix,
Raised the 'Southern English' flag and then there were six.
To please some grumbling Irishmen they split it in two.
Two little kingdoms, but then the Scots, you see,
Claimed their ancient throne and rights, then there were three.
Three little kingdoms but then one more,
For Welshmen claimed a Parliament and then there were four.
Four little kingdoms wouldn't do it all!
One of them was too big; the others were too small.'
And this is the price we'll pay
Take a lesson from your history.
'Divide and conquer is the game we play.'
And this is the price we'll pay.
'All across Great Britain ancient hates revived.
Cornwall wants to rule herself, and then there were five.
Five little kingdoms, but London in a fix,
Raised the 'Southern English' flag and then there were six.
Miss J E
Clarke of Eynsham - A poem in Judy Magazine for Girls 28 August 1889.
Right now the yes campaign is still stuck in the 30 percents. Sounds to
me like Scotland’s “Wee Eck” needs to call in Russia’s Vlad.
“Say
what you will, there is something fine about our old aristocracy. I'll bet
Trotsky couldn't hit a moving secretary with an egg on a dark night.”
P.G. Wodehouse.
Have a great Spring weekend everyone. In the UK it’s time
to move the clocks round the house.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished February.
DJIA: +203 Up. NASDAQ: +353 Up. SP500: +255 Up.
The new Fed bubble continues, what could possibly go wrong?
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