Baltic Dry Index. 1481 +04
LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
You've got a friend in me
You've got a friend in me
When the road looks rough ahead
And you're miles and miles from your nice warm bed
You just remember what your old pal said
Boy you've got a friend in me
Yeah you've got a friend in me
You've got a friend in me
When the road looks rough ahead
And you're miles and miles from your nice warm bed
You just remember what your old pal said
Boy you've got a friend in me
Yeah you've got a friend in me
President Obama, and the EU chorus with the Yellen Fedster’s, with
apologies.
The story so
far, after a botched US/German Coup in Kiev intended to get the Ukraine into
the EU and NATO, encircling Russia and fatally compromising Russia’s defence,
the outcome instead was that Russia got back the Crimea, stands poised to split
the Ukraine into at least two, and effectively controls three of the Ukraine’s
oil fields and all of its offshore oil wells. It also controls the port that
supports the offshore energy industry and the manufacturing plant and
infrastructure firms formerly supporting the Ukraine.
In response,
the west’s “Great Leaders” have screamed blue murder, appearing bravely on TV
threatening fire and brimstone. The reality of day one of the west’s tragic
fight back, was underwhelming. The EU imposed asset freezes and travel bans on
21 hapless Russians and Ukrainians, while the USA could only bring itself to do
the same on seven hapless Russians. Yesterday the Crimea declared itself independent
from the Ukraine, and asked to be annexed by Russia. Later today Russia is
expected to agree. At the end of the month, the Crimea intends to switch to
operating on the Russian Rouble and to switch to Moscow’s time zone.
With friends
like this, the Ukraine doesn’t need enemies. For now, Russia is still supplying
natural gas to what’s left of the Ukraine, though the Ukraine’s rump has no
means of paying for anything. There is a widespread rumour, that at the start
of the month the USA flew out of Kiev to America, all of the Ukraine’s gold
reserves. Cynics now think that Germany might actually get some gold back from
Uncle Sam. The rest of the world yawned, and went back to the only game in town
on QE forever and ZIRP, and went back to the business of buying inflated stocks.
Goosed probably by the NY Fed’s team of riggers and fixits, and front run by
the Fed’s Great Vampire Squid owners on Wall Street.
All right everyone, line up
alphabetically according to your height.
President Obama, with apologies to Casey Stengel.
Russia Sounds Alarm on Economic Crisis as West Imposes Sanctions
Mar 17,
2014 9:00 PM GMT
Russia’s economy is showing signs of a crisis, the government in Moscow
said as the U.S. and the European Union announced sanctions over the country’s
support for the Crimea region breaking away from Ukraine. “The situation in the economy bears clear signs of a crisis,” Deputy Economy Minister Sergei Belyakov said in Moscow yesterday. The cabinet needs to refrain from raising the fiscal burden on companies, which would be the “wrong approach,” he said. “Taking money from companies and asking them afterward to modernize production is illogical and strange.”
Even before the worst standoff against the West since the Cold War, Russia’s economy was facing the weakest growth since a 2009 recession as consumer demand failed to make up for sagging investment. EU foreign ministers yesterday agreed to freeze assets and impose visa travel bans on 21 Russian, Crimean and former Ukrainian officials, while U.S. President Barack Obama imposed sanctions on seven Russians.
More
Putin Orders Approval of Accord on Crimea Accession to Russia
Mar 18, 2014 7:09 AM GMT
President Vladimir Putin said he supported a request from Ukraine’s
breakaway region of Crimea to join Russia after recognizing the Black Sea peninsula as an
independent state. Russia should sign a treaty accepting Crimea’s accession, according to an order signed by Putin and published on a government website today. He is scheduled to address lawmakers and regional leaders at 3 p.m. in Moscow to discuss Crimea, which voted on March 16 to join Russia.
The move signals Russia won’t back down from annexing the territory after U.S. and European Union imposed sanctions on Russian officials and threatened further measures to dissuade Putin from taking Crimea. Russian stocks and the ruble added to gains yesterday after the penalties were announced as investors speculated that the immediate effect would be muted.
More
March 17, 2014, 4:40 p.m. EDT
U.S. stocks rise; S&P 500 positive for the year
Yahoo rallies as Alibaba begins IPO process
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S.
stocks finished Monday with strong gains as investors shrugged off the narrow
scope of EU and U.S. sanctions following the vote in Crimea in favor of leaving
Ukraine.
Investors instead focused on
better-than-expected economic data, including industrial production and
manufacturing activity in the New York region. However, stocks rose amid the
lowest trading volumes this year.
More
Asian Stocks Rally With Nickel on Russia Sanctions
Mar 18, 2014 6:20 AM GMT
Asian
stocks rebounded, with the the regional index rising from a five-week low,
and nickel surged toward a bull market as investors weighed the impact of
sanctions against Russia.
Gold retreated a second day before the Federal
Reserve begins discussing monetary policy today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5 percent by 3:17 p.m. in Tokyo, climbing from the lowest close since Feb. 7. Japan’s Topix index jumped 1 percent to snap a four-day rout. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures were little changed. Nickel climbed the most in two weeks as an export ban by Indonesia and the risk of further penalties for Russia’s actions in Ukraine raised supply concerns. Gold and silver slid at least 0.5 percent.
More
With complacency
back everywhere and the Fed’s final bubble rapidly inflating again, what could
possibly go wrong?
Never make predictions, especially about the future.
Casey
Stengel.
Chinese Developer Bonds Sink in Secondary Trade Amid Collapse
Mar 18,
2014 5:23 AM GMT
Some 66 percent of new Chinese developer dollar-denominated bonds sold this
year are trading below their issue price amid the collapse of a private real
estate company and news the housing market is cooling. About $6.3 billion of notes in the U.S. currency sold by property companies including Guangzhou R&F Properties Co., KWG Property Holding Ltd. and Shimao Property Holdings Ltd. (813) have fallen in secondary market trade, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Prices on Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. (1638)’s 2018 8.875 percent debentures dropped to a seven-month low yesterday while Shimao Property’s $600 million of 8.125 percent notes due 2021 and sold to investors at par in January were trading at 97.646 cents on the dollar.
Demand for developer debt is waning after government officials familiar with the matter said yesterday Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. doesn’t have enough cash to repay 3.5 billion yuan ($566 million) of debt. The value of home sales in the world’s second-biggest economy fell 5 percent in the first two months of the year after local governments stepped up measures to curb rising prices. The 7.5 percent economic expansion targeted by China this year would be the slowest since 1990.
More
China Developer With $567 Million Debt Said to Collapse
Mar 17, 2014 9:39 PM GMT
A closely held Chinese real estate developer with 3.5 billion yuan ($566.6
million) of debt has collapsed and its largest shareholder was detained,
government officials familiar with the matter said yesterday. Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. doesn’t have enough cash to repay creditors that include more than 15 banks, with China Construction Bank Corp. (939) holding more than 1 billion yuan of its debt, according to the officials, who asked not to be named because they weren’t authorized to discuss the matter. The company’s majority shareholder and his son, its legal representative, have been detained and face charges of illegal fundraising, the officials said.
The collapse of the company, based in the eastern town of Fenghua, adds to concern of strains in the nation’s real estate sector and comes less than two weeks after the first bond default by a Chinese company. Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology Co.’s inability to repay its debt may become China’s own “Bear Stearns moment,” prompting investors to reassess credit risks as they did after the U.S. securities firm was rescued in 2008, Bank of America Corp. said March 5.
More
China Home-Price Growth Slows in Big Cities on Tight Credit
Mar 18, 2014 4:13 AM GMT
Chinese new-home price growth slowed last month, led by the four cities the
government defines as first tier, amid tighter credit to rein in excessive borrowing
and individual city measures to curb property prices. Prices in Beijing and the southern business hub of Shenzhen each rose 0.2 percent in February from a month earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said today. That was the slowest pace since October 2012. They added 0.4 percent in Shanghai, the smallest increase since November 2012, and gained 0.5 percent in Guangzhou. Prices climbed in 57 of the 70 cities tracked by the government. That compares with 62 in January.
“Overall, we see the property sector as
becoming increasingly a major and more real risk to growth and financial
stability this year,” said Dariusz Kowalczyk, a senior economist and strategist
at Credit Agricole CIB, in an e-mailed reply to questions on the data.
More
"As fewer and fewer people have confidence in paper as a store of value, the price of gold will continue to rise. The history of fiat money is little more than a register of monetary follies and inflations. Our present age merely affords another entry in this dismal register."
Hans F. Sennholz
At the Comex
silver depositories Monday
final figures were: Registered 52.52 Moz, Eligible 129.94 Moz, Total 182.26 Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
No crooks or scoundrels today, today Bloomberg tries its hand at good old American pseudo-science analysis of President Putin’s motives in regaining for Russia the Crimea. Next week what the tea leaves and chicken entrails say to Bloomberg.
I cannot
forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery
inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national
interest.
Winston
Churchill. October 1, 1939.
Putin’s Motives Rooted in History Remain a Mystery Abroad
Mar 18, 2014 4:49 AM GMT
As tensions between Russia and the West grew more heated with Vladimir Putin’s rapid move yesterday to recognize Crimea as an independent state, his actions and motives remain opaque to U.S. and European officials.
Some in the U.S., including former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, have dismissed the Russian president as “delusional” or intent on recreating the Soviet Union. Others, including former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, see President Putin taking his strategic cues from Adolf Hitler’s 1930’s playbook to undermine Eastern European stability and the post-Cold War order.Current and former intelligence officers, such as Eugene Rumer, say the keys to understanding Putin’s decision-making lie in Russian history and in his mission to create a Eurasian Union. Rather than rebuilding the Soviet Union, they say Putin is acting on a long-standing goal to create a buffer zone to counter the encroaching West, an ambition that suggests Crimea may be just an initial step. They warn that he may see Western attempts to punish Russia as further provocations.
“After several rounds of NATO expansions, after the U.S. developing extensive relations with some other countries in the Soviet Union, Russia feels it has every reason to push back and expand its sphere of privileged interests, primarily in the territory of the Soviet Union,” said Rumer, a former U.S. national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia who’s now at the Carnegie Endowment, a Washington policy group.
“The idea isn’t to recreate the Soviet Union, but to surround Russia with a series of compliant satellites, and there is no greater prize in that pursuit than Ukraine,” Rumer said.
Fellow Brookings scholar Fiona Hill, co-author with Gaddy of “Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin,” argues that the Russian president, a 61-year-old former KGB officer, is best understood as a composite of multiple identities that stem from his and his country’s past experiences. His views, they say, “have deep roots” in several centuries of Russian political thought.
“This is why Putin’s actions in Ukraine are broadly popular in Russia -- among both the ‘patriotic elites’ and the general public -- and have resulted, in February-March 2014, in a significant surge in his approval ratings,” Hill writes in a March 16 Brookings paper.
History also helps explain Putin’s distrust of the West, said Talbott, who describes Moscow as “a paranoid with real enemies.” Over the centuries, Russia has had to contend with marauding Mongols, Viking incursions, Napoleon’s destruction of Moscow, and Hitler’s siege of Leningrad.
That 900-day assault claimed the life of Putin’s older brother. While Vladimir Putin wasn’t born yet, the loss and suffering loomed large in his family’s experience.
---- His family’s ordeal in World War II, she writes, “fits neatly into Russia’s national historical narrative -- where Russia constantly battles for survival against a hostile outside world. Every calamity and great sacrifice reaffirms Russia’s resilience and its special status in history.”
In light of that siege mentality, “the attitude of Russian leaders going back to the czars has been the best defense is a good offense,” Talbott said, “so Russia will continue to gobble up territory, so hostile forces by definition are going to be farther and farther away.”
Josef Stalin considered it Russia’s right, earned with as many as 27 million deaths helping defeat Nazi Germany in World War II, to project his buffer zone all the way to the heart of Europe.
More
The first rule of
Coups, however unwise, is you’ve got to succeed. The second rule of Coups is to make sure that
your Coup doesn’t get taken over by fanatical other parties. This ought to be
lesson CIA 101. Someone, somewhere in Washington, forgot the history of the Russian
revolutions of 1917, if they ever knew them at all. In March, the Duma ousted
the autocratic Christian Tsar and formed the Russian Provisional Government. The
Soviets (workers councils) let it think it was in control. When the Provisional
Government opted to prolong the war with Germany, the Bolsheviks and the Soviets
used their Red Guards to seize power, quickly establishing the Cheka to crush
dissent. Who got it so wrong in Kiev?
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished February.
DJIA: +203 Up. NASDAQ: +353 Up. SP500: +255 Up.
The new Fed bubble continues, what could possibly go wrong?
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