Baltic Dry Index. 892 +03
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
“John Bull can stand many things, but he cannot stand two per
cent.”
Walter Bagehot.
After a five year denial trek through the
modern day equivalent of the Sinai, mainstream media has suddenly emerged out
of denial and into the reality that the unloved fiat euro is headed for
breakup. Moses Barroso had been hoping for something of a longer sojourn in the
Sinai. While stock markets everywhere make new bubble highs based on central
bank oceans of new cash and zero interest rate policies, in the real world we
are headed towards ruination. We have entered the final bubble.
At some point ahead the new bubble bursts.
Whether from the breakup of the Eurozone, the ending of QE forever and Zirp
forever, the collapse of Japan or war between Japan and China, or simply the
arrival of the next Lehman, everyman and his dog knows what’s coming next, just
not when. My money’s on the breakup of the Eurozone, with war between China and Japan a close
second. An unrepentant, militarising new government in Japan seems to want a
real war to go alongside its new currency/trade war against all comers.
Below, the case for a Eurozone disaster. Stay
long physical precious metals held outside of the European or American banking
system. When push comes to shove, who wants to get Cyprussed or MF Globaled.
There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history counts for
so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is
part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not
have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.
J K Galbraith
Brussels' power grab will break up eurozone - Saxo bank
The eurozone's financial sector will “drown” in “self-defeating” regulation, which will eventually "destroy" the healthy banks, as the single-currency bloc breaks apart, says the boss of Denmark’s Saxo Bank.
Lars
Seier Christensen, chief executive of Saxo Bank, said it was clear that the
eurozone would eventually break up as Brussels claimed even more power and used
it “ever more poorly”.
The
break-up of the 17-nation bloc could take shape in several forms, Mr
Christensen said, including the weaker countries leaving, which he believes
could be done for cheaper than the current and future bailouts.
Another
option could be the evolution of a multi euro-currency zone, where countries
with similar economic conditions grouped together, he suggested.
Perhaps
the less likely, but still possible, would be that Germany leaves the single
currency. The bank boss argued that as the bills begin to pile up for the
eurozone's largest economy, this option would seem an attractive solution to the
country’s citizens.
However, he said all of these option would “require rationality returning” to Brussels, which “does not seem to be on the cards”.
As a
result, he said he expected the eurozone to remain in recession for years to
come, with the likelihood that it would deepen into a depression.
“Forget
about recovery in six months, it will always be six months from now,” he said.
“Euro
denominated assets will remain unattractive, and downright dangerous, to hold
for years to come,” he added.
----“Cyprus was a template,” he said. “Expect not only bail-ins, which if defined clearly ahead of time could be part of the solution, but also outright confiscatory wealth taxes, disguised as solidarity payments.”
Mr Christensen said bank runs could start “instantaneously” as “normal” depositors that had worked hard to save up for their family viewed their mattress as a safer place for their money than their bank.
“Of course, the answer to bank runs is capital restrictions. Expect a lot more of that,” he added.
“They are always introduced as short term and temporary, but very hard to remove once in place.
More
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/10043597/Brussels-power-grab-will-break-up-eurozone-Saxo-bank.html
May 8, 2013, 8:31 a.m. EDTStodgy Netherlands is nation that’ll blow up euro
Commentary: Overindebted Dutch heading deeper into recession
LONDON
(MarketWatch) — Which euro-zone country is most deeply in debt? The profligate
Greeks, with their generous state-funded pensions? The Cypriots and their banks
stuffed with dodgy Russian money? The recession-hit Spaniards or the
boom-and-bust Irish?
None of
the above. Actually, it is the sober, responsible Dutch.
Consumer
debt in the Netherlands has hit 250% of available income, one of the highest
levels in the world. In Spain, by comparison, it has never gone above 125%.
The Netherlands has turned into one of the most heavily indebted countries in the world. It has slumped into recession and shows very little sign of coming out of it. The euro crisis has been dragging on for three years now but so far has only infected the peripheral nations within the single currency. But the Netherlands is a core member of both the euro and the European Union. If it can’t survive in the euro zone, then the game really will be up.
----It is blowing up in exactly the
same way that Ireland, Greece and Portugal did — except on a slightly longer
fuse.
Low
interest rates, set mainly to benefit the German economy, and lots of cheap
capital led to a property boom and an explosion of debt. From the launch of the
single currency to the peak of the market, Dutch house prices doubled, making
it one of the most overheated markets in the world.
Now that has crashed spectacularly. House prices are falling as fast as they did in Florida when the American housing boom turned sour. Prices are now 16.6% lower than they were at the peak of the bubble in 2008.
The National Association of Estate Agents predicts another 7% drop this year.
As a result, the Dutch are now sinking under a tide of debt. At more than 250%, household debt is even higher than in Ireland and 2 ½ times the level in Greece. Already one bank was rescued by the government, and with house prices still collapsing there may well be more to come. The Dutch banks have 650 billion euros outstanding on real estate that is rapidly falling in value — and if there is one thing we know for sure about the financial markets it is that when the property markets collapse, the financial system is not far behind.
More
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stodgy-netherlands-is-nation-thatll-blow-up-euro-2013-05-08?link=MW_popular
Next, more on the doubled over EUSSR. Ex-banker and
author Satyajit Das says at best “Europe faces a prolonged period of economic
stagnation as it works off its debt burden and undertakes major structural
changes to correct imbalances.” At worst, Europe heads off into splendid
isolation and autarky. An economic backwater, trading internally, getting rich
by taking in each other’s laundry. More likely is a split into a Germanic DM “eurozone,”
a “best of the rest, eurozone,” with the dangerous financial tiddlers like
Luxembourg, Greece, Cyprus and Malta, kicked out back to semi membership, until
they come up with some way of reducing their financial risk to the others. Stay
long physical precious metals. The euro has now become the most dangerous of
the fiat currencies to hold, even more so than the trade war Yen.
May 9, 2013, 12:02 a.m. EDT
Europe’s united states form an imperfect union
Commentary: Slow growth, burdensome debt create a continental divide
SYDNEY (MarketWatch) — The European Union is an open economy —
the world’s largest exporter and importer of goods and services. But escalating
sovereign debt and banking sector problems threaten to turn Europe inward.
If economic pressures lead to a shift to autarky, then the U.S., Europe
and China are likely to find closed economies a realistic policy option,
although for different reasons. This article looks at Europe, while subsequent
pieces will address China and smaller countries. A previous commentary observes
America’s
splendid isolationism.
Individual
European economies are modest in size relative to the U.S. But as a combined
entity the EU, including the 17 euro zone members that share a common currency,
constitute more than 25% of global GDP, making it the world’s largest economic
unit.
But
around 75% of EU trade is within member nations, aided by removal of trade
barriers and the common currency. For example, Germany, the EU’s largest
economy and one of the world’s largest exporters, sells more than 60% of its
products within the common market, much of it to other euro zone members.
Europe
has many of the requirements of a closed economy. The EU is largely
self-sufficient in food. As in the U.S., this is based, in part, on subsidies,
minimum price schemes and trade restrictions which favor farmers.
-----Yet the need for greater integration to deal with its debt problems may be the catalyst for the shift to autarky.
As a
single unit, the euro zone’s current account is nearly balanced, its trade
account has a small surplus, the overall fiscal deficit is modest and the aggregate
level of public debt while high is manageable.
But there
are significant disparities between individual members of the euro zone in
terms of income levels, public finances, external account and debt levels.
Greater integration would help resolve some of these variations.
However,
this would necessitate a net wealth transfer from richer nations to weaker
members. Stronger more creditworthy members would also have to underwrite the
borrowings of weaker nations. Currently, there is significant opposition to
such liabilities, predictably from net lenders such as Germany, Finland and the
Netherlands.
But
even without agreement on euro-zone bonds, de facto mutualization of debt will
take place. As more financing for weaker nations moves to official institutions
such as the European Central Bank and bailout funds, the commitment of stronger
countries, especially Germany and France, increases. They implicitly assume the
liabilities of weaker members of the euro zone.
----Irrespective
of its policy choices, Europe faces a prolonged period of economic stagnation
as it works off its debt burden and undertakes major structural changes to
correct imbalances.
During
this transition, Europe will be forced to focus internally, husbanding savings
and wealth needed to absorb the required large debt write-offs. Explicit or
implicit capital controls and trade restrictions are natural policy measures to
assist in this adjustment, marking a shift to a more closed economy.
Satyajit
Das is a former banker and author of “Extreme Money” and “Traders, Guns &
Money.”
More
We end for today with yet more zirp fuel to the stock bubble. This time
it’s South Korea joining in Japan’s new currency war to beggar they neighbour. But
zirp and QE forever is a game that does have an ending. Be it next month or
next year or the year after that, zirp and QE come to a bad ending. Zirp forever
and QE forever is a central bankster lie. In our new effort to recreate the
naughty noughties, we seem more likely to recreate the 1930s instead.
In central banking as in diplomacy,
style, conservative tailoring, and an easy association with the affluent count
greatly and results far much less.
J. K. Galbraith
South Korea Joins India-to-Europe Rate Cuts for Growth: Economy
By Eunkyung Seo & Cynthia Kim - May 9, 2013 6:02 AM GMT
The Bank
of Korea cut interest rates, following the lead of policy makers in Australia,
Europe and India
this month, as strength in the won and weakness in the yen dim the outlook for
the nation’s exports. Governor Kim Choong Soo and his board lowered the benchmark seven-day repurchase rate to 2.5 percent from 2.75 percent, the central bank said in a statement in Seoul today. Six of 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted the move while the remainder forecast no change. Kim supported a cut after opposing one last month.
As central banks around the world move to counter currency appreciation, the won’s 24 percent jump against the yen in six months is hampering South Korean exporters of autos and electronics and aiding their Japanese rivals. In Seoul, ruling New Frontier Party floor leader Lee Hahn Koo yesterday urged a “more active role” for the BOK, adding to political pressure that the central bank resisted last month.
“Japan’s policies must have played a very big role in today’s decision,” said Huh Kwan, a Seoul-based fixed-income trader at Korea Investment & Securities Co., one of South Korea’s 20 primary dealers. “The cut can be seen as action to ease a worsening impact on exports.”
More
Private-Equity Vultures Fattened by Abenomics Cash: Japan Credit
By Emi Urabe - May 9, 2013 3:56 AM GMT
Japan’s private-equity
funds, once disparaged as vultures, are attracting investments from banks flush
with cash from Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s stimulus. New Horizon Capital Co. is considering raising more money and extending a fundraising deadline because of demand from lenders, Chief Executive Officer Yasushi Ando said. Integral Corp. plans a second fund by the end of August. Buyout funds raised 92 billion yen ($930 million) last year in Japan, the most in three years and a 53 percent jump from 2011, according to data from Japan Buy-Out Research Institute Corp.
Lenders are responding to record excess cash and the highest volatility in sovereign bonds in a decade by returning to
investments considered too risky after the 2008 collapse of Lehman
Brothers Holdings Inc.
---- “Japanese financial institutions are seeking alternative investments because they can no longer rely on income from sovereign debt,” said Yasuo Sugeno, a senior researcher at Daiwa Institute of Research in Tokyo. “The megabanks, which were the first to turn to private equity, are now being followed by regional banks and trusts.”
Unprecedented Easing
The Bank of Japan decided on April 4 to double monthly bond buying to 7.5 trillion yen and lengthened the average maturity of the purchases by twofold to about seven years. The announcement sent Japan’s benchmark 10-year bond yield to a record low of 0.315 percent the following day. The rate surged to almost double that level in the same session and was down 1/2 basis point at 0.585 percent as of 11:55 a.m. in Tokyo today.
More
"When paper money systems begin to crack at the seams, the run to gold could be explosive."
Harry Browne
At the Comex silver depositories Wednesday final figures were: Registered 44.01
Moz, Eligible 119.97 Moz, Total 163.88 Moz.
Crooks and
Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
Yes it’s the banksters again. They can resist anything
except temptation. Below, yet more trouble for the “storm in a teapot dome,” JP
Morgan. “JPMorgan has said
it intends to defend itself and the employees, and that it disputes that people
including Masters acted inappropriately.” I have no idea as to who is right in
the coming FERC fight with the famous silver short, though their statement does
have the touch of boilerplate about it. Like infamous money launderer HSBC, and
the US law challenged UBS, these giant mega banks do seem to have an uncanny knack
for attracting misunderstandings. Could old JP silver perma-bear turn into the
next Lehman? Hopefully not.
Captain Bligh Squid had one-way
pockets. She would walk ten miles in the snow to chisel an orphan out of
tuppence.
With
apologies to P.G. Wodehouse and the Duke of Dunstable.
JPMorgan Says Energy Watchdog May Seek to Punish Units, Workers
By Dawn Kopecki & Brian Wingfield - May 9, 2013 12:43 AM GMT
JPMorgan
Chase & Co. (JPM), the biggest U.S. bank, was
warned by federal energy-market regulators that its personnel and two
subsidiaries may face claims stemming from a probe into bidding practices. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission staff told JPMorgan in March they may recommend the agency bring an enforcement case, the New York-based company said yesterday in a regulatory filing. Claims may include “alleged violations of FERC rules and the rules of certain independent system operators,” the lender said, without elaborating on the allegations.
The FERC has stepped up scrutiny of corporations as it wields policing powers that were expanded in the wake of Enron Corp.’s 2001 collapse. Agency investigators may seek to hold JPMorgan traders and commodities-unit chief Blythe Masters “individually liable,” the New York Times reported last week, citing a 70-page document the watchdog sent the bank in March.
The case focuses on eight “schemes” adopted by traders in Houston between September 2010 and June 2011, according to the newspaper. Traders offered energy at prices “calculated to falsely appear attractive,” prompting state authorities in California and Michigan to make about $83 million in “excessive” payments to JPMorgan, the Times cited investigators as saying.
While Masters, 44, was less involved with daily decisions, investigators said she got e-mails and presentations outlining the strategies, the publication reported, citing the document. JPMorgan has said it intends to defend itself and the employees, and that it disputes that people including Masters acted inappropriately.
More
“We're all islands shouting lies to each other across seas of
misunderstanding.”
Rudyard Kipling
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished April:
DJIA: +133 Up. NASDAQ: +139 Up. SP500: +170 Up. Another Fed bubble underway. But how high is
high enough?
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