Baltic Dry Index. 861 -11
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
'My name is Sherlock Holmes. It is my
business to know what other people don't know.'
For more on the activities of the diplomat Fogle,
who has been filling up a whole lot of comedy time on Russian TV, scroll down
to Crooks Corner.
We open today with the good news. There’s plenty of
oil in North America with the best still too come. Japan’s new currency war is
working for Japan in spades for now. Beggar thy neighbour is good.
'There
is nothing like first-hand evidence.'
Sherlock
Holmes.
U.S. Supply Shock to Push Non-OPEC Oil Growth by 1.9%, IEA Says
By Jake
Rudnitsky - May 14, 2013 9:00 AM GMT
Crude from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will
increase by 990,000 barrels a day annually to 2018 as U.S. tight oil output
continues to boom, according to the International
Energy Agency. Non-OPEC supplies are forecast to grow to 59.3 million barrels a day in 2018 from 53.3 million last year, or 1.9 percent a year, the Paris-based energy adviser said in its medium-term oil market report today. The U.S. will add 2.8 million in liquids production, accounting for nearly half of the growth and 420,000 barrels a day more than in the IEA’s estimate in October.
“North America has set off a supply shock that is sending ripples throughout the world,” IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said in a press release accompanying the report. “The good news is that this is helping to ease a market that was relatively tight for several years.”
The tight oil boom in the U.S. unleashed by hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, boosted output last year to the highest level since 1995 and could help make the world’s largest oil consumer energy independent by 2020. New North American supply will hurt growth in OPEC’s production capacity and could slow global “megaprojects” as investment tilts toward the U.S., the IEA said.
U.S. output will reach 11.9 million barrel a day in 2018, while Canada will add 1.3 million of liquids production over the next five years as the country taps its oil sands deposits, the IEA said. Growth in Canada may be limited before 2016 due to a lack of pipeline capacity.
The U.S. will overtake Russia as the largest non-OPEC
producer in 2015 as Russian liquids output will climb 30,000 barrels a day to
10.76 million barrels in 2018. Confusion about the country’s tax policy and
planned incentives to develop new areas could delay greenfield production,
according to the IEA.
More
Japan's first-quarter growth spurt shows early benefits of Abe's policy gamble
TOKYO |(Reuters) - Japan's economy expanded at a rapid clip at the start of the year, the first hard evidence that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's sweeping stimulus is beginning to rouse consumers and businesses into action even as risks loomed in the horizon.
Corporate investment, seen as an essential ingredient of a sustained recovery, fell for the fifth consecutive quarter though analysts expect improved business sentiment will eventually translate into more spending.
Gross domestic product rose 0.9 percent from the previous quarter, against the median forecast of a 0.7 percent rise in a Reuters poll of 24 analysts.
That translated into an annualized 3.5 percent growth, the fastest in a year, and topped a 1 percent rise in the fourth quarter, cementing a turnaround from six months of contraction in 2012.
---- "Personal consumption was really strong and exports did better than expected. Stock gains and expectations for higher salaries are driving consumption now," said Hiroaki Muto, senior economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co. in Tokyo.
More
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/16/us-japan-economy-gdp-idUSBRE94F01020130516
Next, the UK’s outgoing head of the BOE declares
economic victory. Any setbacks from here are all to be the incoming Canadian’s
fault. With mission accomplished declared, the BOE’s King seeks to get out of
town fast, covering his tracks.
'It
is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to
twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.'
Sherlock
Holmes.
King Declares U.K. Recovery Is in Sight as Outlook Raised
By Jennifer Ryan & Scott Hamilton - May 15, 2013 12:40 PM GMT
Bank of England Governor Mervyn King declared a U.K.
recovery is now “in sight” as he presented his final forecasts with an improved
outlook for the economy.
In the central bank’s quarterly Inflation Report and King’s last before he retires in July, officials predicted that growth may accelerate to 0.5 percent this quarter from 0.3 percent in the first three months of the year. They also raised projections for the next three years. On inflation, the central bank sees it peaking at 3.1 percent in the third quarter of this year, lower than expected in February.
“Of most significance today is that there is a welcome change in the economic outlook,” King said as he presented his 89th press conference at the central bank in London. “This hasn’t been a typical recession, and it won’t be a typical recovery.”
More
Now the bad news. The famous US self-sustaining
economic recovery just turned iffy, and just might not be real after all. But
it’s no reason to upset the Fed’s final bubble. Euroland’s recession deepens
with Germany now getting ready to join in. The Cyprus bank depositors template
that wasn’t, actually is. From Brazil to Japan, what’s yours in the bank is
actually ours, anytime the errant banksters need a taxpayer bailout.
“when you
have eliminated all which is impossible, then whatever remains,
however improbable, must be the truth.”
Sherlock
Holmes.
Industrial Production in U.S. Falls by Most in Eight Months
By Shobhana Chandra - May 15, 2013 2:22 PM GMT
Industrial production declined in April by the most in eight months,
reflecting broad-based cutbacks in U.S. manufacturing
(IPMGCHNG) that show factories will provide little support for the economy.
Output at factories, mines and utilities fell a more-than-forecast 0.5 percent after a revised 0.3 percent gain in the prior month that was weaker than previously reported, a report from the Federal Reserve showed today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for a 0.2 percent decline. Manufacturing, which makes up 75 percent of total production, unexpectedly fell 0.4 percent, the third drop in four months.
----“Manufacturing
activity could be fairly tepid over the next few months,” Millan Mulraine, an economist
for TD Securities USA LLC in New York, said before
the report. “We could see a downward adjustment to output. Companies are
limiting orders. Overall demand has weakened relative to the first quarter.”
More
Euro-Area Recession Deepens as Slowdown Exceeds Estimates
By Angeline Benoit - May 15, 2013 12:24 PM GMT
The euro-area economy shrank more than economists forecast in
the three months through March, extending a recession to a record sixth quarter
and increasing pressure on the currency bloc’s leaders to spur growth.
Gross domestic product in the 17-nation euro zone fell 0.2 percent
after a 0.6 percent decline in the previous quarter, the European Union’s
statistics office in Luxembourg said today. The median of 39 estimates in a Bloomberg
News survey was for a 0.1 percent contraction. From a year earlier, the
economy shrank 1 percent. The slowdown has spread to the euro core. The German economy, Europe’s largest, expanded less than forecast in the first quarter. France slipped into a recession and Italy’s contraction exceeded estimates. The European Central Bank cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low of 0.5 percent this month and President Mario Draghi said the ECB is ready to act again if needed.
The first-quarter contraction “reinforces pressure on the ECB to come up with further measures to try and support euro-zone growth,” said Howard Archer, an economist at IHS Global Insight in London. “An interest rate cut to 0.25 percent looks ever more possible, while the ECB will also continue to look into the case for a negative deposit rate and ways of getting more credit through to smaller companies.”
More
France in double dip recession one year into Hollande's presidency
France, the second largest economy in the eurozone, entered recession in the first quarter this year - its second in four years, helping drag the eurozone into its longest recession on record.
By Denise
Roland 8:35AM BST 15 May 2013
Gross
domestic product contracted 0.2pc, after shrinking the same amount in the last
quarter of 2012, the official INSEE statistics office said on Wednesday. A
technical recession is defined as two quarters of negative growth.
Continued contraction in France factored significantly in the 0.2pc decline seen across the eurozone as a whole in the first three months of the year, dragging the bloc into its longest recession on record with six straight quarters of falling GDP.
GDP also fell across most of southern Europe. The Finnish and Dutch economies shrunk in the quarter, too.
Continued contraction in France factored significantly in the 0.2pc decline seen across the eurozone as a whole in the first three months of the year, dragging the bloc into its longest recession on record with six straight quarters of falling GDP.
GDP also fell across most of southern Europe. The Finnish and Dutch economies shrunk in the quarter, too.
----Speaking on Europe 1 radio, Mr Barroso said there was a tendency in France to see new developments in the world as a threat rather than an opportunity and said that opposing globalisation was "whistling in the wind".
INSEE
also revised down the fall in purchasing power for French households in 2012 to
0.9pc instead of a 0.4pc fall forecast in March.
Household
consumption contracted for the first time since the second quarter of last year
despite higher spending on energy due to a particularly cold winter.
French
growth has been sluggish, hit by record unemployment and falling household
demand, the key driver of the economy
More
Below, more countries adopt the Cyprus template.
Good news for the industry of safe makers.
Cyprus
would be used as the model for future bailouts.
Jeroen
Dijsselbloem. Dutch Finance Minister and Chairman of the Eurozone Finance
Ministers.
Euro-Style Bail-In Plan Means Bondholder Wipe-Out: Brazil Credit
By Raymond Colitt & Matthew Malinowski - May 15, 2013 2:26 PM GMT
Brazil is drafting rules that would wipe out some creditors of failing banks
in an effort to avoid taxpayer rescues, echoing European proposals to make
bondholders shoulder more costs after three bailouts in as many years. The central bank said May 6 it had prepared a draft of a “bail-in” proposal that would impose losses on holders of subordinated and unsecured bonds in case of insolvency and use their investments to revive the lenders. The measure would boost funding costs for the nation’s investment-grade banks, which currently pay a near record-low 3.77 percent on average to borrow dollars in the bond market, according to Carlos Thadeu de Freitas Gomes, a former central bank director.
The
proposal, similar to one being considered by European Union lawmakers, comes
after seven Brazilian banks became insolvent in the past three years and the deposit
insurance fund
spent 3.8 billion reais ($1.9 billion) to rescue Banco Panamericano SA. The
rules would clarify risks for investors, save taxpayer money, and shield policy
makers from political pressure to rescue lenders that took excessive risks,
even as it pushes up costs for financial firms, said Freitas, now the chief
economist at the National Commerce Confederation.
More
“Don't
talk, Dijsselbloem. You lower the IQ of the entire street every time you open
your mouth.”
Sherlock
Holmes. (Anderson surely!)
At the Comex silver depositories Wednesday final figures were: Registered 43.90
Moz, Eligible 121.61 Moz, Total 165.51 Moz.
Crooks and
Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
No crooked banksters or great vampire squids today.
Today it’s the turn of the Moscow based, CIA special agent 00-Oh, and his
rather old fashioned, comical, brand of spy craft. I Spy and Culp and Crosby it
aint. It does rather seem that he was compromised
from the start. In keeping with the modern, kindler, more gentle way of dealing
with botched post cold war spying, US “diplomat” Fogle is being kicked out of
Russia, presumably for some urgent retraining. The Russians seem particularly
incensed at being sent such an unpromising secret agent. Since there aren’t
many other postings for a not so secret agent fluent in Russian, agent Fogle’s
next posting might be somewhere like Mongolia, Zimbabwe, Greenland, or the
Republic of Nauru.
“An ambassador has no need of spies; his character is always sacred”
George Washington.
CIA agent 'detained in Moscow': his 'letter' in full
Russia's Federal Security Service has released a photograph of a letter that it claims contains instructions on spying for the United States.
The FSB said the letter was found on US diplomat Ryan Fogle, who they claim is a CIA agent caught trying to recruit a member of one of Russia's special services.This is the Associated Press' translation of the typewritten letter shown on Russian state television channels:
Dear
friend,
This is
an advance from someone who is very impressed by your professionalism and who
would greatly value working together with you in the future. For us, your
safety is of the utmost importance, so we have chosen this route to make
contact with you. And we will continue to take steps to secure your safety and
keep our correspondence secret.
We are
prepared to offer you $100,000 and discuss your experience, expertise and
cooperation, and your payment might be far greater if you are prepared to
answer some specific questions.
Additionally, for long-term cooperation we
offer up to $1,000,000 a year with the promise of additional bonuses for
information that will help us.
To
contact us again, please open a new Gmail account, which you will use only for
communicating with us, in an internet café or a café with a WiFi connection.
When signing up, do not use any personal information that could be used to
identify you and the new account. So do not offer any real contact information,
i.e. your telephone numbers or other email addresses.
If Gmail
asks for your personal information, please, start the registration process
again and try not to give them any information. After you register the new
inbox, send an email to the address unbacggdA(at)gmail.com, and then check the
inbox again exactly one week later to see if you have received our reply.
If you
register the new email account in a café with a netbook or another device (for
example, a tablet), then please do not use your own device with your own
personal data on it. If possible, you should get a new device to connect with
us, for cash. We will reimburse you for the purchase.
Thank you
for reading this. We eagerly await the possibility of working with you in the
near future.
Your
friends.
Russia surprised by 'crude, clumsy' US spying
A senior adviser to Vladimir Putin has said the Kremlin was "surprised" by the "extremely crude and clumsy" attempt of an alleged CIA spy to recruit a Russian security services officer.
Presidential
aide Yury Ushakov made the comment as a recording was released in which the
supposed US intelligence officer, Ryan Fogle, can be heard telling his
potential recruit that he "can earn up to one million dollars".
Mr
Fogle's comical disguise and old fashioned spy arsenal drew worldwide attention
when his arrest was reported by Russian media on Tuesday.
He was
seized red-handed in Moscow the previous evening as he tried to recruit a
counter-terrorism officer with an offer of $1m (£650,000), according to the
Federal Security Service (FSB).
The
alleged CIA officer was said to be working under the guise of a diplomat at the
US embassy in Moscow. US media said he had been working at the embassy since
2011.
While Russian
officials have played down the likelihood of diplomatic fallout with
Washington, Mr Ushakov said that "to say the least, we are surprised by
the extremely crude and clumsy recruitment" attempt.
He said
Nikolai Patrushev, the Russian national security chief, would travel to the US
later this month, possibly carrying a message from Mr Putin to President Barack
Obama.
Dmitry
Peskov, Mr Putin's spokesman added: "It (the attempted recruitment) does
not contribute to the future process of strengthening mutual trust between
Russia and the United States and putting our relations on a new level."
Michael
McFaul, America's ambassador to Moscow, was called in for a dressing down at
Russia's foreign ministry over Mr Fogle's actions.
Russian
media reported on Wednesday that Mr Fogle may have been trying to get
information about Tamerlan Tsarnaev, the deceased Boston Marathon bomber who
had roots in the violence-stricken republics of Chechnya and Dagestan.
Mr Fogle
was likely trying to capitalise on new contacts made between the US and Russian
secret services after an American team visited Dagestan last month, according
to Kommersant newspaper. The FSB has said the person he tried to recruit was an
experienced Russian counter-terrorism "warrior" focusing on the North
Caucasus Islamist insurgency.
State
television released fresh details of the sting, including a recording of the
alleged US spy apparently talking into a telephone and offering his target a
large sum of money.
A voice,
speaking in accented Russian, can be clearly heard saying: "I think it's
worth meeting today, it's not possible tomorrow, only today ... it's worth it,
as I said, you can earn up to $1 million."
Mr Fogle
was later wrestled to the ground by "the Object" – the man he was
trying to recruit – as they met at midnight in a Moscow suburb, reports
claimed.
The
seemingly hapless Mr Fogle was shown on television dressed in a blond wig, and
said to be carrying a "spy kit" including a spare wig, a compass, a
Moscow map, a torch, several pairs of glasses and two penknives. He was also
allegedly in possession of a letter offering a $1m yearly retainer for sending
unspecified information to US handlers.
In a
further development, an FSB officer appeared on state television in silhouette
with his voice distorted to claim the US had ignored warnings to stop spying
after a different CIA operative was ejected from the country in January.
More
Fogle
took his revolver from his drawer and slipped it in his pocket. It was
clear that he thought that our night's work might be a serious one.
Holmes
surely!
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished April:
DJIA: +133 Up. NASDAQ: +139 Up. SP500: +170 Up. Another Fed bubble underway. But when to jump
off before it ends?
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