Baltic Dry Index. 836 - 05
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
Mine is the first generation able to
contemplate the possibility that we may live our entire lives without going to
war or sending our children to war.
Tony Blair.
We open today with mainstream media catching
up to what we covered last week. The EU
and China are about to start a hot trade war. The biggest casualty will be
German exports to China. With little love for Germany at present in the EU, for
most in Euroland it’s just collateral damage payback time. Welcome to the
increasingly dysfunctional EUSSR.
EU arms second front in China trade war with Huawei probe
The European Commission is poised to launch an anti-dumping probe against Chinese mobile companies Huawei and ZTE, opening a second front in its escalating trade clash with China.
The EU’s trade
police in Brussels secured support from all 27 commissioners for action last
week, and last-ditch efforts to reach a solution appear to have failed. “The
clock is ticking,” said an official.
Beijing
has vowed to retaliate, warning that people in glass houses should not throw
stones. China is already bristling over the Commission’s plans for sanctions on
€21bn (£17.7bn) of Chinese solar panels, the EU’s biggest ever trade case.
The move
has angered Germany, even though cheap Chinese imports have pushed Germany’s
top solar firms Q-Cells and Solarworld into bankruptcy or debt restructuring.
“It is a
grave mistake,” said German Vice-Chancellor Philipp Roesler. “German industry
is very concerned. I expect the Commission to do everything to prevent a trade
conflict.”
Trade
commissioner Karel De Gucht told Reuters that Huawei and ZTE are “dumping their
products on the European market”, threatening a strategic sector of European
industry. Both companies deny the claim.
---- The Commission has the power to act unilaterally, even if several EU states are luke-warm or oppose sanctions.
Germany
has different interests from France, Britain, Italy and Spain, since it alone
sells as much to China as it imports, with booming exports of machine tools and
luxury cars. China is the biggest market for Mercedes S-Class cars.
“At
present, there is an almost perfect symbiosis: China needs technology and
Germany needs markets,” said Hans Kundani, from Europe’s Council on Foreign
Relations.
Club Med
states have had far less success exporting to China, while their home markets
have been flooded with cheap Chinese goods that undercut their own mid-tier
industries.
More
Staying with China and the growing Great
Disconnect” from reality, busted and rescued
Bank of America says China’s trade surplus is only a tenth of the official
picture. Full speed ahead for the next iceberg and next Lehman. Stay long the
Fed’s super discounted physical precious metals. When this all goes wrong, as
it will, the Fed and the other Anglo-American led central banks will all be
scrambling to buy up what precious metals haven’t already been transferred out to Asia.
China Trade Surplus Seen by BofA at One-Tenth Customs Figure
By Bloomberg News - May 21, 2013 2:50 AM GMT
China’s trade surplus is one-tenth the official $61 billion reported so far
this year after accounting for fake transactions used to disguise hot-money
inflows, Bank of America Corp. says. The true surplus is about $6 billion, according to Lu Ting, Bank of America’s head of Greater China economics in Hong Kong. That would be the smallest for January-April since the nation posted a $10.8 billion deficit in 2004.
Lu’s calculations suggest the surplus shrank instead of tripling from a year earlier, a sign that global demand is restraining rather than boosting the world’s second-largest economy. Bank of America’s estimate underscores the size of possible discrepancies in the trade data, which has been disputed by analysts for four months, and broader skepticism about Chinese statistics from gross domestic product to jobs.
“Growth is weak in China now -- the overstated export growth means the real growth is slightly weaker,” said Shen Jianguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong. “We are expecting to see a fairly big drop in export growth in the coming months” as regulators crack down on so-called hot-money inflows, he said.
More
In more of the Great Disconnect, our world is
becoming ever more fractious, probably made worse by the aftermath of the near
collapse of the financialised casino economies of the fallen guru Greenspan
casino era. Below, Taiwan and the Philippines engage in their own very personal
trade war. Nothing good come from this in the end. With Uncle Sam pledged to
defend both, it will be interesting to see which side embattled President Obama
opts to come down on once this drags on into a shooting war. China will come
out on Taiwan’s side of course. One nation two systems, and all that. 2013 is
starting to resemble 1913, get long physical gold.
Of course very few in dumbed down Britain know of
rising tensions in East Asia. The very left wing, anti-Christian, anti-Jewish,
anti-American BBC, is off promoting the “burning issue of the day,” the EU
driven need for homosexual “marriage.” In that cause, Great Britain’s oldest
political party has begun its going out of business sale. The UK as we know it
might yet break up. Stay long physical precious metals. We have suddenly moved
back into increasingly unstable times.
"I think most people who have dealt with me, think I'm a
pretty straight sort of guy, and I am."
David Cameron, with apologies to Tony Blair.
Taiwanese Crew Hid to Escape Hail of Philippine Bullets
By Debra Mao - May 21, 2013 4:39 AM GMT
Taiwan fishing boat
captain Hung Yu-chi says he was at the helm in quiet seas on the last morning
of a six-day trip when he noticed a black dot on the horizon. Through binoculars, Yu-chi, 39, could see figures in orange on another boat, the color worn by both Taiwanese and Philippine officers as they patrol fishing waters claimed by each government. As the craft drew near, Yu-chi heard gunshots and realized the boat was from the Philippines. He shouted out to the rest of the crew on the Guang Da Hsin 28, including his father and brother in law, and increased speed.
“They were shooting by the time they got close,” his brother-in-law Hung Jie-shang, 42, said in a May 19 interview with him, Yu-chi and other family members at their home on Liuqiu Island, off the southwestern coast of Taiwan. “If we hadn’t run, we’d be dead.”
The family’s account of the May 9 attack that killed the 65-year-old patriarch, Hung Shih-cheng, has triggered a wave of nationalism in Taiwan, with President Ma Ying-jeou tapping the anger to put economic pressure on the Philippines to issue a formal apology. He has frozen the hiring of Filipino workers and told his people to stop traveling there.
The risk of deteriorating ties with its neighbor coincides with a slowdown in economic growth that saw Taiwan expand 1.5 percent in the first quarter from a year before, less than half the pace of the previous three months. Ma, who has served for five years, faces a 14 percent approval rating.
In question are the circumstances that led the Philippine patrol boat with 11 officers on board to fire as many as 59 shots on the 14-meter (46-foot) fishing boat. Taiwan and the Philippines have each claimed the vessel was in their waters at the time. Ma has rebuffed condolences offered by President Benigno Aquino and the offer of an apology conveyed through Amadeo Perez, chairman of the Manila Economic and Cultural Office in Taipei.
More
We end for the day with yet more signs of Merkel’s German
isolation in today’s fractured Euroland. The paymaster may call the tune, but Germany
gets more reviled with each passing week. Politicians in Germany seem tone deaf
to the rest of Europe. Continental Europeans now take every opportunity to dump
on Germany no matter what their German bought and paid for “leaders” pretend.
Continental Europe has never been more fractured since WW2. For more and more Europeans, the euro
simply isn’t working anymore. When the euro as we know it finally dies, all
fingers will point at Germany right or wrong.
"I will have no truck with a European superstate. If there
are moves to create that dragon I will slay it."
Tony Blair.
Germans blame Angela Merkel for poor Eurovision Song Contest performance
Germans
lamented their unexpectedly poor showing at the Eurovision Song Contest,
blaming Chancellor Angela Merkel's tough stance in the euro zone crisis for
their failure to win any points from 34 of the 39 countries voting.
Denmark's
Emmelie de Forest won the event, watched by around 125 million people across
Europe, with 281 points while German act Cascada was 21st out of 26 countries,
getting just 18 points from Austria, Israel, Spain, Albania and Switzerland.
"There's
obviously a political situation to keep in mind - I don't want to say 'this was
18 points for Angela Merkel'," said Germany's ARD TV network coordinator
Thomas Schreiber. "But we all have to be aware that it wasn't just Cascada
up there on stage (being judged) but all of Germany."
Merkel is
popular in Germany for her firm position during the euro zone crisis. But she
is loathed in parts of Europe for her insisting on painful austerity measures
in countries such as Greece, Spain and Italy in exchange for rescue packages.
"It's
unexplainable," said ARD expert commentator Peter Urban on Sunday after
Cascada singer Natalie Horler was 21st even though German media had touted her
as a favourite. More than 8 million Germans watched, a 44 percent market share.
"Is
it that people just don't like us?" Urban was asked on ZDF TV.
"There's some truth to that," he said.
"There
will be two German soccer teams in the Champions League final next week and
maybe people didn't want Germany to win Eurovision too."
Jobless Youth: Europe's Hollow Efforts to Save a Lost Generation
Europe
is failing in the fight against youth unemployment. While the German
government's efforts remain largely symbolic, Southern European leaders pander
to older voters by defending the status quo.
Stylia Kampani
did everything right, and she still doesn't know what the future holds for her.
The 23-year-old studied international relations in her native Greece and spent
a year at the University of Bremen in northern Germany. She completed an
internship at the foreign ministry in Athens and worked for the Greek Embassy
in Berlin. Now she is doing an unpaid internship with the prestigious Athens
daily newspaper Kathimerini. And what happens after that? "Good
question," says Kampani. "I don't know."
"None of my friends believes that
we have a future or will be able to live a normal life," says Kampani.
"That wasn't quite the case four years ago."
Four years ago -- that was before the euro crisis began. Since then, the Greek government has approved a series of austerity programs, which have been especially hard on young people. The unemployment rate among Greeks under 25 has been above 50 percent for months. The situation is similarly dramatic in Spain, Portugal and Italy. According to Eurostat, the European Union's statistics office, the rate of unemployment among young adults in the EU has climbed to 23.5 percent. A lost generation is taking shape in Europe.
More
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/europe-failing-to-combat-youth-unemployment-a-900621.html
Nazi Comparison: Berlin Calls Orbán Comment a 'Derailment'
Hungary's
controversial prime minister, Viktor Orbán, has angered Berlin by comparing its
policies to those of the Nazis. On Monday, Foreign Minister Westerwelle
rejected the comparison, saying it was "regrettable."
A statement by
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has sparked diplomatic tension with
Germany, with Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle
on Monday calling the quip a "derailment."
The tiff originated with a remark by German Chancellor
Angela Merkel on Thursday, in which she said Berlin would "do anything to
get Hungary onto the right path -- but not by sending the cavalry."
Her statement came after Peer Steinbrück, her Social Democratic challenger for the Chancellery in the upcoming national election, said that he could see Hungary being excluded from the European Union, given recent worrisome constitutional changes that violate EU law. It was also reportedly a tongue-in-cheek reference to a well-known statement by Steinbrück in which he encouraged tougher measures against Switzerland's tax haven policies, comparing them to Indians running from the "cavalry."
The irony, however, was
lost on Orbán, who on Friday compared Merkel's Hungary policy to Adolf Hitler's
1944 occupation of his country, though Hungary was technically a close ally of
Nazi Germany. "The Germans have already sent cavalry to Hungary -- they
came in the form of tanks," he said in a radio interview. "Our
request is that they don't send any. It didn't work out."
More
"When paper money systems begin to crack at the seams, the run to gold could be explosive."
Harry Browne
At the Comex silver depositories Monday final figures were: Registered 44.17 Moz,
Eligible 120.90 Moz, Total 166.07 Moz.
Crooks and
Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
In America, the scandal over the President’s
enemies list just keeps getting hotter. President Nixon and his plumbers stand
vindicated. When it comes to gaining and retaining power, “the illegal we do
immediately. The unconstitutional takes a little longer,” to quote Henry
Kissinger.
“Yes We Can!”
President
Obama.
Factbox: Four key questions in the unfolding IRS scandal
WASHINGTON |(Reuters) - Congressional and Justice Department investigators are examining the Internal Revenue Service over its inappropriate scrutiny of conservative groups that applied for tax-exempt status.
President Barack Obama, seeking to contain the fallout as he pushes his second-term agenda, has denounced the behavior as "outrageous." After a Treasury Department report last week confirmed the targeting by the IRS, the tax agency became the focus of a criminal probe by the Justice Department.
The report by a Treasury inspector general found that for 18 months starting in early 2010, IRS workers in Cincinnati, Ohio, used "inappropriate criteria" - such as the use of words like "Tea Party" and "Patriots" - to flag groups for extra scrutiny.
But the report left many unanswered questions:
* WHO DECIDED THE CRITERIA FOR THE EXTRA SCRUTINY?
The Treasury report said investigators "could not specifically determine who had been involved in creating the criteria." Asked who was responsible, Steven Miller, the outgoing head of the IRS, told the House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee on Friday, "I don't have names for you."
That comment led to more questions - over whether Miller knows who was responsible for the targeting of conservative groups and won't say, or whether he doesn't know. Look for lawmakers to press him on that point when he appears before the Senate Finance Committee on Tuesday.
More broadly, it is unclear whether government higher-ups are protecting lower-level workers in Cincinnati. The lack of clarity also may stem from genuine confusion about who was responsible in the Cincinnati office, which experienced significant turnover and included "acting" managers.
The key issue is whether the criteria used to identify tax-exempt applications for extra scrutiny were created by overwhelmed workers who were seeking to organize applications - or whether the effort was politically motivated. It is also unclear why, after IRS officials ordered the inappropriate criteria removed in mid-2011, similar criteria were imposed in January 2012 before being set aside again five months later.
* WHAT DID OBAMA AND HIS TOP AIDES KNOW, AND WHEN?
Republicans are accusing the White House of using the IRS to target political enemies and are alleging a cover-up. Such complaints are rooted in the notion that Obama or his top aides might have known about the IRS' targeting of conservative groups before the election last November, and kept it quiet.
It is clear that some senior aides to Obama - like many lawmakers on Capitol Hill and anyone who read the Treasury inspector general's website - knew well before the report's release last week that Treasury was investigating complaints that the IRS had targeted conservative groups.
More
Attention shifts to White House in IRS probe
WASHINGTON
| Mon May 20, 2013 7:14pm EDT
(Reuters)
- Two senior aides to President Barack Obama knew weeks ago about a watchdog
report on the U.S. Internal Revenue Service targeting of conservative groups, a
spokesman said on Monday, shifting the focus to the White House in a
fast-moving controversy.
White
House Counsel Kathryn Ruemmler was told on April 24 about an upcoming report by
the Treasury's Inspector General for Tax Administration (TIGTA) on the IRS
practice, for which an IRS official apologized on May 10, triggering the
controversy.
Soon
after she learned of the report, Ruemmler briefed White House Chief of Staff
Denis McDonough and other senior staff, White House spokesman Jay Carney told
reporters at a briefing.
In his
remarks about an affair that has become a major distraction early in Obama's
second term, Carney shed light on how Obama's inner circle learned of the
issue, but not on why low-level IRS employees began the targeting in the first
place.
Answers
about that core issue may emerge from congressional hearings scheduled for
Tuesday and Wednesday where key players are scheduled to testify on Capitol
Hill.
The TIGTA
report, formally released last week, prompted Democrats to blame bureaucratic
at the IRS for the scandal, while some Republicans alleged that the
administration abused its power in targeting conservative groups.
The
Treasury department's inspector general report found no evidence of that.
Carney reiterated that the White House did not attempt to influence the report.
"No
one in this building intervened in an ongoing independent investigation or did
anything that could be seen as intervening in that investigation," Carney
said.
Carney
said any White House intervention prior to completion of the TIGTA probe would
have been inappropriate. In any case, he said, there was no urgency because the
activity in question had stopped about a year earlier.
Last
week, Carney downplayed what Ruemmler knew about the report, which found IRS
agents had targeted conservative groups for extra scrutiny based on the use in
their names of key words, such as "Tea Party" and
"Patriot."
But on
Monday, Carney gave reporters a more detailed accounting. He said Ruemmler was
told on April 24 the report would address "line IRS employees improperly
scrutinizing ... organizations by using words such as Tea Party and
Patriot."
Carney
said: "While we had an indication of the likely findings, until the IG
finalizes his report, the findings and conclusions are subject to change."
He added,
"That's why we had to wait, appropriately, until the report was publicized
or published for the president to be able to review it and respond, as he did
very quickly."
Obama
fired acting IRS Commissioner Steven Miller on Wednesday and called the
inspector general's findings outrageous. The report found no evidence of
political motivation for the targeting or of any White House involvement.
There was
no White House intervention at any time into the contents of the report, Carney
said.
Obama has
come under pressure in recent weeks from controversies on three fronts - the
IRS scandal, the administration's explanation of last year's attack in
Benghazi, Libya in which the U.S. ambassador died and the Justice Department's
seizure of Associated Press phone records.
"The
White House still can't get its story straight," Brendan Buck, a spokesman
for House Speaker John Boehner said.
More
"A day like today is not a day for soundbites, really. But
I feel the hand of history upon our shoulders. I really do."
Tony Blair
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished April:
DJIA: +133 Up. NASDAQ: +139 Up. SP500: +170 Up. Another Fed bubble underway. But when to jump
off before it ends?
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