Thursday 11 October 2012

The End of Opel.



Baltic Dry Index. 875  unch.

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

"Gold was not selected arbitrarily by governments to be the monetary standard. Gold had developed for many centuries on the free market as the best money; as the commodity providing the most stable and desirable monetary medium."

Murray N. Rothbard

We open this morning with more signs of slowing in Asia, and the massive decline in sales of Japanese goods in China hasn’t yet shown up in the official figures. The accelerating global slowdown, finishes off any attempt at rescuing Club Med. For more on the global slowdown, scroll down to Crooks Corner and a massive red flag coming from Hong Kong. Stay long physical precious metals. The usual government response to an impending crash is to electronically print more new money than a Costa Concordia of drunken sailors can spend.

"The paper standard is self-destructive."

Hans F. Sennholz

Korea Matches Brazil Rate Cut as World Growth Stumbles

By Eunkyung Seo and Cynthia Kim - Oct 11, 2012 5:24 AM GMT
South Korea cut interest rates hours after Brazil as economies around the world shield themselves from the risk of a deeper slowdown driven by weakness in China and austerity measures in Europe.

Governor Kim Choong Soo and his board in Seoul today lowered the benchmark seven-day repurchase rate to 2.75 percent from 3 percent, a decision predicted by 13 of 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Brazil’s Selic rate fell by the same amount to a record low 7.25 percent.

----South Korea’s central bank lowered estimates for the nation’s expansion and Kim said the rate reduction reflected “deteriorating conditions.”

“Central banks need to be in an easing mode at least until early next year,” said Masamichi Adachi, a senior economist at JPMorgan Securities in Tokyo and a former central bank official. “We still have a lot of uncertainties centered on the European debt crisis, the U.S. fiscal cliff and China’s slowdown.”

----Gary D. Cohn, the chief operating officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., told Bloomberg Television today that the world economy is in a tough place and lacks leadership. In another sign of weakness in Asia, Japan’s machinery orders fell more than economists forecast in August, declining 3.3 percent, a Cabinet Office report showed today.

The Bank of Korea lowered its forecast for the nation’s growth in 2012 to 2.4 percent from a July estimate of 3 percent. The economy will expand 3.2 percent next year, and the inflation rate this year will be 2.3 percent, it said, lower than an earlier prediction of 2.7 percent.
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Now back to the sadness of Euroland, where global events are fast making Europe’s bodged serial rescues futile. Nothing but devaluation can now save the likes of the PIGS, Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain. Currently plan B is a meeting in Malta of the newly formed Latin block, France, Italy, Spain and Portugal, designed to gang up against Germany at the next leader’s summit. Long gone are the days of the pre-meeting stitch up between France and paymaster Germany.  

S&P downgrades Spain's credit rating

Rating agency Standard & Poor's has downgraded Spain's credit rating by two notches, warning that the deepening economic recession is limiting the government's options

By Rebecca Clancy 10:23PM BST 10 Oct 2012
S&P warned that rising unemployment and harsh austerity measures are likely to intensify social unrest and cause further friction between Spain's central and regional governments.

"The downgrade reflects our view of mounting risks to Spain's public finances, due to rising economic and political pressures," said the rating agency in a statement.

"In our view, the capacity of Spain's political institutions (both domestic and multilateral) to deal with the severe challenges posed by the current economic and financial crisis is declining, and therefore, in accordance with our rating methodology (see "Sovereign Government Rating Methodology And Assumptions," published June 30, 2011), we have lowered the rating by two notches."

The downgrade to BBB- from BBB+ late on Wednesday leaves Spain one notch above "junk" status. S&P also attached a "negative outlook", which warns of a possible downgrade in the medium term.

S&P said it would downgrade the country's debt status further if political support for Madrid's reform agenda weakens, if eurozone support fails to prevent Spain's borrowing costs hit unsustainable levels or if debt tops 100pc of economic output or debt payments surpass 10pc of general government revenues.

The rating agency also expressed doubts that all of the eurozone countries would give their backing to 17-nation bloc's attempts to recapitalise Spain's troubled banking system, which S&P said would force the country's debt burden to "balloon".
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IMF fears 'credit shock' in Spain if Rajoy blocks rescue

The International Monetary Fund has issued a veiled warning that Spanish bond spreads could surge to a record 7.5pc and push the country into a deeper crisis if premier Mariano Rajoy continues to drag his feet on a bail-out request.

The fund said sovereign debt woes were spilling into the broader Spanish economy, risking a “pernicious feedback loop” for private companies. The danger is another bout of capital flight combined with a “credit shock” as banks deleverage drastically to meet higher capital ratios.

Olivier Blanchard, the IMF’s chief economist, said Madrid was courting fate by trying to muddle through without a bail-out – and without the tough terms it would bring – now that borrowing costs had fallen on hopes of bond purchases by the European Central Bank.

Mr Blanchard said investors had most likely anticipated a rescue by the ECB and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). “If so, we can’t be sure that yields will stay low for much longer,” he said.

The IMF said capital flight from Spain reached €296bn (£238bn) in the 12 months to June, or 27pc of GDP. 
It matches the intensity of “sudden stop” crises seen in emerging markets.

Banks in Spain, Italy, and the EMU fringe cannot easily make up the shortfall by turning to the ECB because they are short of usable collateral.

----The fund said Europe’s failure to flesh out promises for a banking union – needed to break the “vicious circle” between banks and states – risked a violent credit crunch, slashing an extra 4pc off output in southern Europe next year. Most economists say a shock of this magnitude would push Spain into a death spiral.
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Europe Dispensing Wrong Fiscal Medicine in Koo Warning

By Simon Kennedy - Oct 11, 2012 12:29 AM GMT
European policy makers are dispensing the wrong medicine by tackling the euro-area’s fiscal ills with austerity, according to Richard Koo, chief economist of Nomura Research Institute.

The budget cuts and structural reforms prescribed to nations such as Spain by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi are in Koo’s eyes akin to the treatment of diabetes sufferers, who must eat carefully and exercise to improve their long-term health.

The trouble is Europe’s cash-strapped peripheral countries have the economic equivalent of pneumonia, which is more deadly and is best beaten by ensuring ample nourishment, said Koo. To the 58-year-old former Federal Reserve economist that means greater fiscal stimulus if the euro crisis is to end soon.

“The patient can have both, but doctor has to cure the pneumonia first even if the treatments contradict those required for the diabetes,” Koo said in an interview in Tokyo yesterday. “In Europe, austerity is the only game in town.”

The advice goes to the heart of Koo’s theory that like their Japanese counterparts in the 1990s, policy makers in Europe are failing to see that their region is suffering from a “balance-sheet recession.”

That’s when the end of an asset boom cripples companies and households with debt they need to minimize and leaves them with little desire to borrow and spend even with rock-bottom interest rates. Koo’s solution is to offset private sector savings with government spending, the opposite of what Merkel and Draghi are advocating in the euro-area, where Spain is mulling whether to become the latest country to request a sovereign bailout.

“If governments do nothing, economies enter a deflationary spiral,’ said Koo. ‘‘When you look around Europe you see balance-sheet recessions.’’
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We close for today, with yet more sign that Euroland’s unsalvageable. A one-size currency doesn’t fit all anymore, if it ever did. The world is awash in over capacity in auto production, nowhere more so than in the United States of Europe, especially in France, Germany, Italy and Spain. But France has just ordered it unhappy, loss making, metal bashers to keep on bashing. Ordering Peugeot, not to even think about laying off workers and closing down plants.  Good luck closing down anything in Italy. So that just leaves doomed Spain and paymaster Germany. Der Spiegel gives the kiss of death to GM’s 150 year old Opel division. I sense a German bailout coming up.

The End Might Be Near for Opel

By Thomas Tuma 10/10/2012
The situation is grim for the European car market, even for previously thriving premium brands. But things look particularly gloomy for Opel. Thanks to stiff competition and an undeservedly poor reputation, the GM subsidiary has reached a low from which it might never recover.

---- In 2009, Opel's American parent company, General Motors (GM), filed for bankruptcy and dragged its German subsidiary dangerously close to the financial brink. That sparked such an uproar that people were screaming all the way to the Chancellery in Berlin for the government to intervene. Siebrecht and the other dealers were even willing to back a so-called rescue company so they could buy a stake in the troubled carmaker. Things haven't improved much since then.

---- In the fall of 2012, the carmaker is relying on government-subsidized programs to avoid layoffs by reducing worker hours, a number of plants are threatened with closure (the Bochum facility in particular), sales have plummeted, there are fears of billions in losses and Opel's market share is nose-diving. In 1995, the figure was 16.5 percent; today, it stands at 7.1 percent.

---- Nearly all car manufacturers have run into difficulties again: Peugeot, Citroën, Ford and Fiat. Even BMW and Mercedes are losing ground. Early last week, the company bosses met with Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin and complained that they needed a few billion euros in state support to break into the market with their electric cars.

That is, however, the least of their problems. The real quandary is that production capacity in Europe's automotive plants far outstrips people's desire to buy. That's hardly surprising in crisis-stricken countries, such as Spain or Italy. But it's also the case in France and even in Germany. Only a few years ago, nearly 16 million new cars were sold each year in Europe. This year, European sales will drop to below 12 million units.

The market "appears to be saturated," says Kurt Kröger, a major car dealer in Hamburg who has been the owner and CEO of Dello GmbH for the past quarter of a century and boasts annual sales of €400 million, including with Opels. He expects next year will entail "significant structural changes among manufacturers and dealerships," which is a polite way of saying that they are all headed for a crash.
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Of course Club Mad plus Germany, could try discounting the unsold vehicles for a loss in America, Mexico and Brazil, but that’s called dumping, and they all have domestic industry to protect. Dumping internally is called cash for clunkers, and does at least have the merit of getting less efficient older cars off the roads. But France, Italy and Spain have no money, with the last two already on dubiously legal ECB life support. France will get there next year on current old socialist policies. To any reasonable outside observer, the one size fits all  monetary union has become a failure. It is neither desirable nor possible to keep it operating in its present form. Europe’s voters now see this, even if it’s politicians wilfully can’t. As the seasonal slowdown commences in the populous northern hemisphere, things are only likely to get much worse. Plan A is to just get past the US election, then I suspect, it becomes everyman for himself.

A large Bank is exactly the place where a vain and shallow person in authority, if he be a man of gravity and method, as such men often are, may do infinite evil in no long time, and before he is detected. If he is lucky enough to begin at a time of expansion in trade, he is nearly sure not to be found out till the time of contraction has arrived, and then very large figures will be required to reckon the evil he has done.

Walter Bagehot. Lombard Street. 1873

At the Comex silver depositories Wednesday final figures were: Registered 41.11 Moz, Eligible 103.30 Moz, Total 144.41 Moz.  


Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over. 

Today, a big red flag from Hong Kong.  While global retailers scramble to pay silly rents for the chance to sell trashy bling to mainland Chinese tourists, bling may be out now that China’s housing boom has turned into a bust. Ominously “Colliers International analysts said Hong Kong landlords have recently cut asking prices on retail leases by 20% to 30%, as shop owners were “turning conservative,” according to a report Wednesday in the South China Morning Post.” Looks like a top to me. Stay long physical precious metals for the coming bust.

Oct. 11, 2012, 1:54 a.m. EDT

Hong Kong’s million-dollar retail rent challenge

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Reaching the Chinese consumer may come at the ultimate price in Hong Kong, where U.S. apparel makers are waging a very expensive retail arms race for hearts and minds.

In what amounts to a brand-building gamble just as China’s growth rate is beginning to cool, recent store openings in the city by Abercrombie & Fitch Co. ANF +1.43%  , privately held Forever 21 Inc. and The Gap Inc. GPS -0.22%  come with costly property-leasing arrangements that retail experts say will consume much of the profits — or even result in ongoing losses — for these outlets.

Abercrombie & Fitch, which opened a flagship central Hong Kong location in August, is reportedly paying around $1 million per month to lease retail space in an area renown for luxury-goods shopping.
Gap too has a location in the expensive central district, opened in November of last year, although its rental terms weren’t made public.

For its part, Forever 21 launched a store in the nearby Causeway Bay neighborhood in January, reportedly paying $1.4 million a month for premises in the pedestrian-friendly fashion district anchored by a Japanese department store and karaoke bars.

---- Allan Zeman, chairman of Lan Kwai Fong Holdings Ltd. and local business magnate, says foreign brands have been piling into Hong Kong, in some cases paying “crazy” rents, all in a bid to reach the mainland Chinese consumer.

“It shows the public you’re this hot brand, you’re special,” Zeman said. He doubts that brands such as Abercrombie & Fitch ever had the intention of showing a profit, given the amount of revenue needed to pay the rent.

Zeman, who in the 1970s established and later sold a company that sourced clothing in China for export to Canada, says these high-profile locations are likely loss-making in an effort to create lasting impressions with new consumers rather than seek short-term profits.

---- Hong Kong, widely considered to be China’s most international city, is also regarded as an important staging ground for brands, particularly apparel and luxury-good makers who one day hope to make a success in China.

One reason is the sheer number of China tourists that stream into Hong Kong: So far this year, around 2.7 million mainland tourists crossed into Hong Kong per month on average, a rise of about 15% from last year, according to HSBC.

About 1 in every 4 dollars exchanged at retail locations can be linked to the mainland shopper, a total of about $10 billion to $13 billion last year, according to HSBC.

Many China tourists come ready to splurge on branded goods that have the seal of authenticity and which are up to 20% cheaper than the same items sold in mainland Chinese cities.

But recent signs of waning shopping interest on the part of China tourists could pose problems, according to retail experts who point to softening spending and shifting preferences.

Sales were disappointing during the key Golden Week holiday which ended Sunday, as visitor numbers and spending declined for first time since the peak of the financial crisis in 2009.

---- The spending decline, reflected mainly in cooling interest for high-end items such as luxury watches and high-end fashion, could also be an early signal of a new trend in which mainland shoppers are becoming more thrifty.

UBS analyst Carl Berrisford said he advised clients last year to exit retail themes tied to mainland Chinese consumers in the belief that the sector’s growth rate had peaked after years of rapid gains.

---- Average outlays by China tourists even appears on track for contraction in coming months, according to Berrisford, who cites the apparent topping-out of China’s housing boom as one reason for the decline in spending.

---- But one plus for retailers from the falling trend in shopping is an apparent softening in the market for retail space.

Colliers International analysts said Hong Kong landlords have recently cut asking prices on retail leases by 20% to 30%, as shop owners were “turning conservative,” according to a report Wednesday in the South China Morning Post.

---- Daiwa Capital Markets economist Kevin Lai sees trouble brewing.
Soaring retail rentals is symptomatic of Hong Kong’s growing inflation problem, according to Lai. who worries that the city is being whipped along by excess credit that fuels a boom/bust bubble dynamic..
Mounting cracks are appearing, according to Lai, who points to data showing Hong Kong had a current-account deficit in the second quarter, its first since 2009.

“The costs are eating into everybody’s income, everybody’s profit,” Lai said, adding that he fears a sudden crash could knock 40% off equity and real-estate values.
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A permanent Governor of the Bank of England, ECB, the Fed, PBOC, would be one of the greatest men in England, etc. He would be a little 'monarch' in the City; he would be far greater than the 'Lord Mayor' [ your choice here.] He would be the personal embodiment of the [Bank of England;]  he would be constantly clothed with an almost indefinite prestige. Everybody in business would bow down before him and try to stand well with him, for he might in a panic be able to save almost anyone he liked, and to ruin almost anyone he liked. A day might come when his favour might mean prosperity, and his distrust might mean ruin.

With apologies to Walter Bagehot. Lombard Street. 1873

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished September:
DJIA: +66 Up. NASDAQ: +88 DOWN. SP500: +85 Up. All three indicators had reversed from down to up, but now the NASDAQ has reversed again to down. While not unprecedented, it is a warning sign a that the July reversal from up to down is about to fail.

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