Wednesday, 17 October 2012

The Disunited States of Europe.



Baltic Dry Index. 981  +40

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

"Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly, and applying the wrong remedies."

Groucho Marx

But all accounts of the US media pundits, President Obama won the second debate, but weakly on points. But is it likely to make much difference with the US voters? Can either candidate really get America off QE forever? What happens in the rump Congress?

We open today with EU paymaster Germany demanding a pound of flesh from all of the Eurozone underlings. I believe Germany has a word for such lesser peoples. In collateral damage yesterday, Germany embarrassingly trashed the EU’s joke President Herman Van Rompuy. If it wasn’t for the money, he probably wouldn’t turn up for  tomorrows fight. Tomorrow’s grand punch up in Brussels promises to be more interesting than usual, albeit completely irrelevant to saving Club Med and the euro.  Developments in France and Italy have changed the game. Stay long physical precious metals, the euro’s going down no matter who wins at the Battle of Brussels. The only open question is how much of continental Europe’s wealth will get destroyed before Europe’s Clown Princes face up to reality. The euro isn’t working for most Europeans anymore. Forcing euro-serfs into Germanic slave state is never going to work, no matter how hard the Clown Princes try.

"A politician needs the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year. And to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn't happen."

Winston Churchill.

Germany shocks EU with fiscal overlord demand

Germany has stated its exorbitant price for keeping Greece in the euro and agreeing to mass bond purchases by the European Central Bank.

There must be an EU “currency commissioner” with sweeping powers to strike down national budgets; a “large step towards fiscal union”; and yet another EU treaty.

Finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble dropped his bombshell in talks with German journalists on a flight from Asia, and apparently had the blessing of Angela Merkel, the chancellor. “When I put forward such proposals, you can take it as a given that the chancellor agrees,” he said.

Officials in Brussels reacted with horror. “If that is the demand, they are not going to get it. Nobody in the Council wants a new treaty right now,” said one EU diplomat.

“We’ve got the fiscal compact and quite enough fiscal discipline. Not even the Dutch want a commissioner telling them how to tax and spend,” he said.

The new demands risk another stormy summit in Brussels on Thursday, pitting Germany against the Latin bloc. The last summit in June ended with an acrimonious deal in the small hours on a banking union that began to unravel within days.

Mr Schaeuble said the currency chief should have powers similar to those of the EU’s competition commissioner, a man “feared around the world”.

The competition Tsar is the arch-enforcer of the EU machine, with powers to launch dawn raids, deploy SWAT teams, and block mergers on his own authority.

----Mr Schaeuble poured scorn on counter-proposals by EU president Herman Van Rompuy, including a first step towards debt pooling through joint “eurobills”. The term “Fiskalunion” in Berlin has a specific meaning: more power to police the affairs of debtor states. It does not mean debt mutualisation or a joint EU treasury. Germany has so far refused to cross this Rubicon.

Michael Link, the country’s Europe minister, said Mr Van Rompuy’s plans are dead on arrival. “When you make proposals that are simply unacceptable for certain members, this will only give the impression of division. You can phrase it any way you like, 'treasury bills’, 'debt-redemption funds’ or 'eurobonds’, this type of debt issuance will not fly with our government. We have always said this very clearly.”

The comment invited a barbed retort from his French counterpart, Bernard Cazeneuve. “Well, for us, it is 'yes’, just as clearly,” he said. Such an open rift between Germany and France on the eve of a summit is rare.

October 16, 2012, 9:42 p.m. ET

Greek Coalition Duo Reject Labor Moves Proposed by Troika

ATHENS—The two junior partners in Greece's coalition government vowed Tuesday to vote down labor changes demanded by a troika of international inspectors, indicating a fresh delay could arise in finalizing a multibillion-euro austerity plan needed to open the path for the country's next aid-tranche payment.

Democratic Left party chief Fotis Kouvelis said after a three-hour meeting of leaders of the three parties constituting the government that changes demanded by international inspectors will "flatten labor rights" and "further feed the recession." "Democratic Left categorically rejects and won't vote for any measures that the troika is demanding in connection with labor relations and rights," Mr Kouvelis said.

An official of the socialist Pasok party, the other junior partner in the coalition with the conservative New Democracy party, said that Mr. Kouvelis' support was a precondition for his party to back the labor reforms.

The party leaders' meeting follows a day of difficult talks between Greece and the troika that included at least two separate negotiating sessions as each side took time off to confer with their respective chiefs. Although talks appear to have stumbled, negotiations will continue late Tuesday in an attempt bridge the gaps ahead of Thursday's European summit.

The statement by Mr. Kouvelis is seen as reflecting the hard bargaining of the newly elected government that came to power in June.

International inspectors are pushing for a fresh round of hugely unpopular labor reforms, such as the reduction of compensation paid to sacked private-sector workers and dropping automatic pay rises after three years of employment.

Greece has been locked in negotiations with a delegation of inspectors from the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank—known as the troika—since early September over the two-year austerity plan.

Oct. 17, 2012, 2:41 a.m. EDT

Spain faces diplomatic hurdles over aid: WSJ

MADRID (MarketWatch) -- A day after a Spanish official said the country was considering asking for a new credit line that would open up the path for European Central Bank purchases of its bonds, German officials reportedly said they see no signs the country is closer to asking for aid, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy reportedly reassured German Chancellor Angela Merkel in a phone call on Tuesday that Spain isn't close to making the request, the newspaper said, citing persons familiar with the matter. As well, diplomatic tangles are complex, the paper said. While Italy continues to urge Spain to apply in the hopes that it will ease market pressure on its bonds, Germany is worried it might have the opposite effect. On Tuesday, Moody's Investors Service kept Spain's sovereign-bond rating at investment grade, [Baa3] but assigned a negative outlook to the rating.
Link.

Oct. 17, 2012, 1:02 a.m. EDT

The next euro storm is in Italy

Commentary: Berlusconi may campaign on anti-euro platform

LONDON (MarketWatch) — One thing should have been learned for certain during the almost three years the euro has been in crisis. While the markets are getting worked up over one issue, the real trouble is usually brewing somewhere else.

Right now, Spain and Greece are occupying everyone’s attention. Investors want to know when Greece will be bailed out yet again, and whether Spain will finally call on its partners in the euro zone for help.

But the next storm will be in Italy.

Why? Because the People for Freedom party of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi is taking an increasingly strident anti-euro position. If it goes into next year’s elections campaigning against the single currency, it could cause a meltdown in the financial markets.

Italy has the third largest sovereign bond market in the world. It will only take a hint of the country coming out of the euro EURUSD +0.45% for that market to go into panic mode — and that will create vast losses right across the financial system.

It would be very hard to describe the euro as a lucky currency.

-----But in one respect at least it has led a charmed life. In none of the 17 member states has there been a credible political party campaigning for its break up.

True, there have been anti-euro parties. In Finland, the nationalist True Finns have campaigned against the currency. In France, the far-right National Front has argued for the return of the franc. In Ireland, Sinn Fein has gained in the polls by opposing the austerity program, while not actually rejecting the euro. But none of those are parties that most people would ever consider voting for. There have not been any politicians fighting for support from mainstream voters fed up with the euro.

But that is starting to change — and that may be the most significant thing happening to the euro zone right now.

Interestingly, the challenges are coming from billionaires —perhaps because they are outside mainstream politics, and their wealth gives them an authority on economic issues that other politicians find hard to match. In Austria, the Canadian-Austrian auto-parts billionaire Frank Stronach has launched a campaign for next year’s elections. He is campaigning on a platform of restoring national currencies and is already scoring up to 10% in the polls.

But the more dramatic developments are in Italy. Elections are due to be held by April next year after Berlusconi was removed last year and replaced by the unelected technocrat Mario Monti.
Italians are likely to go to the polls in an angry volatile mood. The economy will shrink by 2.5% in 2012 as the austerity demand by the euro bites. Italy had scarcely grown in the decade since it joined the single currency

More

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-next-euro-storm-is-in-italy-2012-10-17

While we await tomorrow’s highly charged gathering of Europe’s elite, we end for the day with a glimpse behind the scenes at Goldman Loots and Sacks. A preview of the must buy book for any Muppet who was Goldman client in the decade of the noughties.

“Call it the Goldman Sachs test. If this is something Goldman would do to its clients, don't do it."

Felix Salmon.

A culture of bullying and greed: Wanted - interns for Goldman Sachs...

Must be prepared for dawn interrogations and ritual humiliations. Bring your own stool (chairs not provided). And don't, whatever you do, get the boss's lunch order wrong

Back on 12 June 2000, as the dot-com bubble was deflating, young Greg Smith was all puffed up, clutching his "extra-large coffee" and looking up "at the formidable tower that housed Goldman Sach's equities trading headquarters" in New York. "Holy shit," he thought, as he arrived for the first day of his summer internship at the Wall Street bank.

More than a decade later, on 14 March 2012, not long after a different financial bubble had burst, the remark may well have risen in a hush over the Goldman dealing room as wide-eyed traders poured over an opinion piece in The New York Times. Title? "Why I'm Leaving Goldman Sachs". Author? Greg Smith.
"Today is my last day at Goldman Sachs," Mr Smith proclaimed. Over 12 years, he said, he had understood what made the bank tick. "And I can honestly say that the environment is now as toxic and destructive as I have ever seen it."

Now, Mr Smith, who had risen to become a Goldman executive director and head of the firm's US equity derivatives business in Europe, the Middle East and Africa before quitting, is preparing tell us the full story. According to reports, his biting commentary on Goldman won him a book deal and a cool $1.5m (£930,000) advance, with the product of his labours, imaginatively titled Why I Left Goldman Sachs, set to hit the shelves on 22 October.

----With a toe in the door, Mr Smith was issued with a folding stool and a "big orange ID badge" on a "bright orange lanyard" – status markers to remind an intern that he or she was mere "plebe, a newbie, a punk-kid". "It was innately demeaning," he says, recounting how interns had to carry around the stools "at all times because there were no extra chairs at the trading desks".

The internship itself was demanding. "You came to work at 5:45 or 6:00 or 6:30 in the morning," Mr Smith recalls. Goldman interns were put through two "Open Meetings" a week, where "a partner would stand at the front of the room with a list of names and call on people at will with questions on the firm's storied culture, its history, on the stock market".

----Smith also recalls the treatment handed out to an intern after a managing director ordered a cheddar cheese sandwich and was presented with a cheddar cheese salad. The boss "opened the container, looked at the salad, looked up at the kid, closed the container and threw it in the trash". "It was a bit harsh, but it was also a teaching moment," Mr Smith writes.

More

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/a-culture-of-bullying-and-greed-wanted--interns-for-goldman-sachs-8214070.html

One of the queries Quakers are asked to consider, is: "Do you maintain strict integrity in your business transactions and in your relations with individuals and organizations? Are you personally scrupulous and responsible in the use of money entrusted to you, and are you careful not to defraud the public revenue?"

Probably why there a no Quakers on Wall Street.

At the Comex silver depositories Tuesday final figures were: Registered 38.02 Moz, Eligible 104.14 Moz, Total 142.16 Moz.  


Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over. 

Today, Citigroup. Though the stock rose after the abrupt surprise departure of the two top corporate officers at the extend and pretend bank, history suggests that there’s nothing good about such forced exits. I won’t pretend that I follow Citi closely or that I have any insight into why yesterday and why in such melodramatic fashion, but my instinct tells me that somewhere in Citi a very large out of control fire is burning, one that was probably soon to go public. When a mega-bank board suddenly hits the panic button, you can pretty much bet that it isn’t a stock to buy. Americans have yet another reason to stay long precious metals for the foreseeable future.

Oct. 16, 2012, 11:30 a.m. EDT

Pandit quits Citigroup, shocks Wall Street

A day after the bank reported earnings, the CEO abruptly resigns

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Vikram Pandit’s stormy tenure at Citigroup Inc. ended with perhaps the biggest shock of all.

Pandit took Wall Street by surprise early Tuesday, announcing he would immediately step down as chief executive officer, as well as leave Citi’s board.

Pandit’s deputy John Havens, who was president and chief operating officer at Citi, also departed.
Havens said he had planned to retire at year-end, but Pandit’s resignation brought his decision forward.
Both the timing and the manner of the departures puzzled observers.

The announcement came just after 8 a.m. Eastern in the middle of bank earnings season, only a day after Citi announced positive third-quarter results. Though its profit fell due to one-time charges, its underlying earnings were considered good; the stock closed up 5.5% Monday and buoyed the financial sector. Though Pandit was on Citi’s earnings call, there were no comments that hinted of his coming departure.

Such was the secrecy of the move that despite Pandit’s and Citi’s high profiles, no media organization got the scoop on the announcement either. In early August, The Wall Street Journal reported that Michael Corbat was “a lead contender” among candidates who could one day replace Pandit. On Tuesday, Corbat was named as Pandit’s successor.
More

"Finance is the art of passing customer segregated funds from hypothecation to hypothecation until it finally disappears."

MF Global, with apologies to Robert W. Sarnoff

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished September:
DJIA: +66 Up. NASDAQ: +88 DOWN. SP500: +85 Up. All three indicators had reversed from down to up, but now the NASDAQ has reversed again to down. While not unprecedented, it is a warning sign a that the July reversal from up to down is about tofail.

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