Wednesday, 24 October 2012

Squaring the Circle.



Baltic Dry Index. 1109  +72

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

For other nations, utopia is a blessed past never to be recovered; for Americans it is just beyond the horizon.

Henry Kissinger.

For more on squaring the circle, scroll down to Crooks Corner, where continental Europe is setting out to build the “Soviet Union lite.” A worker’s paradise no, a banker’s hell yes. By driving out banking competition and local advantage, and retaining too big to fail, Europe is setting off down the road to become a quaint backwater of past achievements. The discredited Nobel Peace Prize for Europe will soon have the emphasis on a different meaning of peace.

Day two of the US Fed’s deliberations, but just two weeks out from the US election, Mammon’s Popes can hardly suddenly start rocking the boat. Many are probably updating their Resumes, just in case “change we can believe in” actually happens. My guess is that they are probably focused on the period after the election, and how to bring about some compromise that vanquishes the dreaded “fiscal cliff.”  With the election passed, whatever the result, Washington minds will be more focused on more than just the spoils of office.

The absence of alternatives clears the mind marvelously.

Henry Kissinger.

Fed to keep buying bonds despite firmer U.S. growth

WASHINGTON | Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:49am EDT
(Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve appears intent to stick to its bond-buying stimulus on Wednesday, having already indicated it would take more than a modest show of economic strength for policymakers to begin taking their foot off the gas.

The Fed unveiled a third round of bond purchases last month to try to rev up a sluggish economic recovery despite a looming presidential election that some thought might deter action.

Now analysts believe the central bank will wait until at least December to make any changes to its current plans to buy $40 billion of mortgage debt per month.

"With the election in two weeks, the Fed will be in a self-imposed quiet mode this week," said Stephen Stanley, an economist at Pierpont Securities, in Stamford, Connecticut. "Look for a statement that has no more than marginal language changes."
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Dow cutting jobs, closing plants as growth slows

NEW YORK | Tue Oct 23, 2012 11:18pm EDT
(Reuters) - Dow Chemical Co, the largest chemical maker in the United States, said on Tuesday it plans to cut 5 percent of its workforce and shutter 20 plants as part of a restructuring program aimed at countering a slowing global economy.

Dow and other chemical companies face slipping demand for products around the world. Rival DuPont slashed its earnings forecast and announced 1,500 job cuts.

"The reality is we are operating in a slow-growth environment in the near-term and, while these actions are difficult, they demonstrate our resolve to tightly manage operations..." Andrew Liveris, Dow's chairman and chief executive, said in a statement.

The company, which hopes to save $500 million a year, said the cuts would result in a loss of around 2,400 positions worldwide.

Among its planned plant closings, Dow will shutter a high density polyethylene facility in Belgium, a sodium borhidrate plant in the Netherlands, and a manufacturing facility in Midland, Michigan.
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Now back to the sadness of Spain. To bailout French and German banksters, plus just about every bankster in Spain, the Spanish population is about to get crucified on a German cross of renewed austerity. The sad part is that it can’t work, not without also sorting out Italy and persuading France to drop national suicide.

Debt crisis: Europe ratchets up grip on Madrid

The EU-IMF Troika in charge of Spain's €60bn (£48bn) bank rescue is to demand much tougher action by the country's authorities to clean up toxic debts, risking a clash that could deter Madrid from requesting a full sovereign bail-out.

BNM Mare Nostrum, and other mid-tier "Group 2" banks such as Popular, Caja 3, and Liberbank, have little chance of tapping the markets to cover most of their capital deficits, according to Troika officials.

They are also losing patience with the glacial pace of cuts at Bankia and other nationalised lenders such as Catalunya-Caixa and Banco Valencia, according to the Spanish newspaper El Confidencial.

Brussels fears a repeat of the fiasco at Bankia, which had to be rescued just weeks after its recapitalisation plans had been approved. "We have had too many bad experiences with financial restructuring in Spain to be sure the plans will work this time," said one official.

Some of the banks are assuming large capital gains on assets that are in fact deeply underwater, and are counting on a 20pc rise in the IBEX index of stocks by the end of the year.

Madrid may see the escalating demands of the Troika as a foretaste of what could happen if Spain requests a sovereign rescue from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the pre-condition for the European Central Bank to start buying Spanish bonds.

Premier Mariano Rajoy is hoping to secure a bail-out with minimal conditions under a "precautionary credit line", but this is illegal for countries that have lost market access.

German lawmakers have warned that the Bundestag will impose tough terms which may include cuts to public sector jobs, a neuralgic issue in Spain.

Yesterday the Bank of Spain said the economy had contracted by 0.4pc in the third quarter. This was less than expected but may have been distorted by a rush of sales before a rise in VAT last month. "The worst of the contraction is still to come," said Ricardo Santos from BNP Paribas.

Mr Rajoy's task keeps growing. Eurostat has ruled that the budget deficit was 9.4pc of GDP last year, not 8.9pc. The deficit this year is now likely to be 7.3pc, a full percentage point above the target. The deficit in the social security fund also reached a record 1pc of GDP, as unemployment of 25pc erodes the contributor base.

----The yield spread on Spanish 10-year bonds over Bunds – the "risk premium" – punched back above 400 basis points, while the IBEX slipped 1.64pc, as optimism from last week's EU summit faded. Investors have begun to home in on comments by German chancellor Angela Merkel that the ESM will not carry the legacy costs of Spain's banking crisis.

The burden will instead fall on the Spanish state. This will be 4pc of GDP on official estimates, or nearer 10pc if the pessimists are right about the true scale of property debts.

----The region of Madrid said on Tuesday it was shelving a bond auction until markets brightened. The move came after Moody's downgraded five regions, including Andalucia and Catalonia, citing "large debt redemptions" in the final quarter of this year. It expects further regional bail-outs in 2013, raising fresh problems since the €18bn regional fund is exhausted.
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We end for today with more socialist nonsense in Euroland. What Euroland’s peasants and banksters need now is more taxes, thinks one of three EU Presidents Barroso.  And not just any old tax, but a financial transaction tax, championed by France. That France is interested in national suicide is strange enough, but the contagion seems to have infected Germany, Italy and Spain and the six dwarfs,  Austria, Belgium, Greece, Portugal, Slovakia and Slovenia. London, Switzerland, New York, Singapore, are about to get an early Christmas gift. Stay long precious metals, continental Europe seems to have succumbed to a delusional a death wish.

Whatever must happen ultimately should happen immediately.

Henry Kissinger.

Financial transaction tax will 'raise billions', says EU Commission

The European Commission has backed plans for 10 countries to impose a financial transaction tax (FTT), claiming the controversial levy will “raise billions of euros of much-needed revenue”.

Jose Manuel Barroso, president of the commission, rebuffed complaints made by other member states – most vocally Britain – and said he was “delighted” that the group was pushing ahead with the plan.

Mr Barroso said the legal requirements and conditions had been met and he did not believe the tax would undermine the single market if it were imposed across limited parts of the European Union. “I am delighted to see that 10 member states have indicated their willingness to participate in a common financial transaction tax,” he said. “This tax can raise billions of euros of much-needed revenue for member states in these difficult times.”

Mr Barroso added: “This is about fairness – we need to ensure the costs of the crisis are shared by the financial sector instead of shouldered by ordinary citizens.”

Germany, France, Italy and Spain are leaders of the group that have told Brussels they are willing to sign up to the tax, and are backed by Austria, Belgium, Greece, Portugal, Slovakia and Slovenia.

A leader does not deserve the name unless he is willing occasionally to stand alone.

Henry Kissinger.

At the Comex silver depositories Tuesday final figures were: Registered 36.93 Moz, Eligible 104.89 Moz, Total 141.82 Moz.  


Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over. 

Today, the EU attempts to square the circle. Deep in a man-made, Bilderberger, failing  fiat currency hole, the EU’s unelected Eurorats keep digging. Once upon a time in Europe, it was only the German army that fell apart once the “master plan” broke down, rigidly sticking to  the failing script. Germany’s weakness  now seems to have infected all of continental Europe, rigidly sticking to a failed Bilderberger euro master plan, long after it stopped working for most of Europe’s hapless serfs, tying itself in ever greater convoluted bureaucracy all to prop up a one size fits all failing euro.

Below, Reuter’s writer puts a rosy spin on the latest trouble with the proposed new European banking union. Another writer could just as easily spun the article on the ever more Alice in Wonderland absurdities needed to try to get the EU’s latest lead balloon off the ground. Lost in space in all of this debacle, whatever happened to competition? Europe doesn’t need some behemoth new, dead hand banking bureaucracy, running every bank from the Baltic to the Atlantic to the Med. Europe needs genuine banking competition, without too big to fail guarantees, with Adam Smith’s invisible hand leading the way. Instead the EU seems determined build a failed “Soviet Union lite” in continental Europe.

If you don't know where you are going, every road will get you nowhere.

Henry Kissinger.

EU to mull plan to bring non-euro states into bank union

BRUSSELS | Tue Oct 23, 2012 7:02pm EDT
(Reuters) - European Union countries will examine a plan this week to allow the ECB to supervise banks in states outside the euro zone alongside those within the currency area, according to an EU document that lays down limits on the central bank's role.

Last week, EU leaders agreed to build a new system of supervision led by the European Central Bank, as a step towards a banking union where chiefly euro zone countries would jointly back problem lenders, in a move to underpin the currency.

But the plan has sparked concerns among the 10 countries in the wider European Union that do not use the euro that they will be indirectly affected by the ECB's new supervisory powers and put at a disadvantage, whether they join the scheme or not.

For the framework to become reality, diplomats must first find a way to accommodate countries outside the euro zone, such as Sweden or Denmark, who may want to join the scheme.

On Tuesday, EU officials circulated a document outlining one way to break the impasse, by establishing a supervisory board within the ECB, a body that would play a role in supervising lenders and where non-euro zone members would have a vote.

"This helps square the circle for non-euro countries," said one EU official. "It is an effort to find equal treatment."

In the draft legislation obtained by Reuters, officials make clear that the final say is with the ECB although it must explain itself if it rejects a decision by the supervisory body.

"The ECB will take all the key decisions," said a second EU official.

This may worry a country outside the euro zone such as Hungary, which wants equal representation if it is to sign up. Granting this is legally difficult, however, because the central bank answers only to the 17 members of the euro zone.

As a concession to those worried that the ECB's new remit will be too wide, the document fences off the central bank's powers from those of each country's agencies.

It says national supervisors should "carry out regular operational tasks" in monitoring banks, while the ECB focuses its efforts on systemic banks and those lenders which have been bailed out. Again, ultimate authority would rest with the ECB.

The banking union would have three major steps: the ECB takes over monitoring euro zone banks and others that sign up; a single fund is created to close down and settle the debts of failed banks; and a comprehensive scheme to protect savers' deposits is established.

The new supervision should pave the way for the new euro zone rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), to directly inject capital into struggling banks, such as those in Ireland.

Britain and all other members of the European Union must give the green light to the banking union before it can go ahead, an approval that could be delayed or withheld if their concerns are not addressed.
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Each success only buys an admission ticket to a more difficult problem.

Henry Kissinger.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished September:
DJIA: +66 Up. NASDAQ: +88 DOWN. SP500: +85 Up. All three indicators had reversed from down to up, but now the NASDAQ has reversed again to down. While not unprecedented, it is a warning sign a that the July reversal from up to down is about to fail.

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