Baltic Dry Index. 883 +08
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
“By
preferring the support of domestic to that of foreign industry, he intends only
his own security; and by directing that industry in such a manner as its
produce may be of the greatest value, he intends only his own gain, and he is
in this, as in many other cases, led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his
intention. Nor is it always the worse for the society that it was not part of
it. By pursuing his own interest he frequently promotes that of the society
more effectually than when he really intends to promote it.”
Adam
Smith. The Wealth of Nations, 1776.
For more on Adam Smith’s quaint 18th
century notions, scroll down to Crooks Corner for more on invisible hands 20th
century style.
The Greek slave making troika, yesterday
promised Greeks another 31.5 billion euros of new unrepayable debt, but first
they must implement 89 missed targets by October 18, and credibly demonstrate
some ability to meet the new troika targets. It would take a miracle even
before the IMF came out yesterday warning of a deepening global slowdown,
especially in the 17 members making up fantasy Euroland.
Since the Greek government will go broke
without the 31.5 billion and no one will believe anything they say about
implementing 89 missed targets in 10 days, the troika either seems to have
decided to force Greece out of the Eurozone, or lose their last shred of
credibility by coming up with some contrivance to give Greece the money by
pretending something has changed. With the global economy slowing, led by
Euroland itself, Greece has no way of meeting any new agreed targets set by the
troika barring a miracle. If Greece or the troika has a fairy godmother, now is
the time for it to appear.
As seen from London, not only is Cinders not going
to the ball, but unless Cinders leaves the troika’s script immediately, Cinders
never gets “to live happily ever after.”
In this Greek version of Cinderella, except for a few tax exempt Greek
shipping magnates, Cinders and everyone else trapped in the hellhole of
bankster Europe, gets to eke out a miserable existence of sackcloth and ashes.
And all to bailout Europe’s fat cat banksters. Stay long physical precious
metals.
Below yesterday’s miserable developments. The
only “good news” yesterday, ratings agency Moody’s gave the underfunded ESM a “triple-A”
rating but immediately put them on negative watch, a coded way of saying it’s
not real. October was ever the favoured month for crashes, and this October the
troika seem to have set up the biggest European car crash of all.
“No society can surely be flourishing and
happy, of which the far greater part of the members are poor and miserable.”
Adam Smith.
IMF Sees ‘Alarmingly High’ Risk of Deeper Global Slump
By Sandrine Rastello - Oct 9, 2012 5:39 AM GMT
The International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecasts as the euro
area’s debt crisis intensifies and warned of even slower expansion unless
officials in the U.S. and Europe address threats to their economies. The world economy will grow 3.3 percent this year, the slowest since the 2009 recession, and 3.6 percent next year, the IMF said today, compared with July predictions of 3.5 percent in 2012 and 3.9 percent in 2013. The Washington-based lender now sees “alarmingly high” risks of a steeper slowdown, with a one-in-six chance of growth slipping below 2 percent.
----“Confidence in the global financial system remains exceptionally fragile,” the IMF said. “Bank lending has remained sluggish across advanced economies” and increased risk aversion has damped capital flows to emerging markets, it said.
More
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-08/imf-sees-alarmingly-high-risk-of-deeper-global-slump.html
October 8, 2012, 9:15 p.m. ET
IMF Cuts Euro-Zone Growth Outlook, Sees Big Risks
The euro zone's economic contraction this year will be deeper, and its recovery next year weaker than previously forecast, the International Monetary Fund said Monday.In its twice-yearly World Economic Outlook, the Fund said it now expects the combined gross domestic product of the euro zone's 17 members to fall by 0.4% this year, and grow by 0.2% next. In July, it forecast a contraction of 0.3% this year, and a rebound of 0.7% next.
The Fund warned that a recovery next year will require the euro zone's policy makers to contain the currency area's fiscal crisis and make progress toward fiscal and banking integration.
It also said that should policy makers fail to make such progress, the outlook could be much worse, with previously strong economies such as Germany contracting, and weaker economies such as Italy and Spain shrinking by as much as 7%.
----However, the Fund warned that policy makers must overcome a number of obstacles, including mounting popular discontent with austerity programs and high levels of unemployment.
"Serious risks remain...posed, for example, by rising social tensions and adjustment fatigue that raise doubts about adjustment in the periphery or by doubts about the commitment of others to more integration," the Fund said.
The IMF expects seven of the euro zone's 17 members to experience economic contraction this year, falling only slightly to six in 2013.
It now expects Italy's economy to shrink by 2.3% this year and 0.7% next, having in July forecast contractions of 1.9% and 0.3%. It expects Spain's economy to shrink by 1.5% this year and 1.3% next, having previously expected contractions of 1.5% and 0.6%.
But it expects Greece to suffer the largest declines in output, of 6.0% this year and 4.0% next.
More
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444024204578045250542980508.html?mod=WSJEurope_hpp_LEFTTopStories
“All money is a matter of belief.”
Adam Smith.
EU-IMF give Greece 10 days to 'implement' reforms
Greece's international creditors on Monday gave Athens an October 18 deadline, the date of the next European Union summit, to "implement" reforms in exchange for fresh financial assistance.
12:41AM BST 09 Oct 2012
"We stressed that before the next disbursement Greece clearly and
credibly should demonstrate its commitment to fully implement the programme -
and 89 prior actions from March should be implemented by the 18th of October at
the latest," Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker said at the close of
talks with finance ministers from the 17-nation single currency area. The scores of "prior actions" involve major privatisations and a whole swathe of reforms to labour markets or bureaucratic red-tape.
Juncker said that after being debriefed by the Troika of international lenders - the European Commission, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank - "we were pleased to hear substantial progress has been made on Greece, specially in the last days."
But before the next disbursement of €31.5bn from a €130bn second package of loans for Greece, talks between Greece and the troika must be finalised, he stressed.
"On Greece more work needs to be done," added IMF managing director Christine Lagarde. "Acting means acting, not just speaking," she said at a press conference.
A day before German Chancellor Angela Merkel lands in Athens, Lagarde, whose IMF inspectors are considered the hardest-line figures in the Troika, said "the list of prior actions has to be implemented."
More
Oct. 8, 2012, 5:06 p.m. EDT
Moody's gives ESM its triple-A rating
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Moody's Investors Services
said Monday that the newly approved European Stability Mechanism, Europe's
permanent bailout fund, has been given a long-term issuer rating of Aaa with a
negative outlook. Its creditworthiness is based on the creditworthiness of the
ESM's member states and the anticipated low leverage, Moody's said in a
release. The negative outlook reflects the negative outlook on all but one of
the Aaa-rated member states and guarantors, including Germany, France and the
Netherlands.
Link
Oct. 8,
2012, 5:20 p.m. EDT
Moody's cuts Cyprus rating on bank weakness
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Moody's Investors Service
said late Monday it downgraded the bond ratings on Cyprus to B3 from Ba3
because of difficulties in the island's banking sector. Moody's has a negative
outlook. Moody's downgraded the rating mainly because its foresees the
government will have to substantially increase the amount of support it gives
to its banks. "In Moody's central scenario, the three largest Cypriot
banks will require more than EUR8 billion in capital (equivalent to over 47% of
GDP) from the government to replenish their core Tier 1 capital to 10%,"
the rating agency said in a note.
Link
Labour was the first price, the original
purchase - money that was paid for all things. It was not by gold or by silver,
but by labour, that all wealth of the world was originally purchased.
Adam Smith.
At the Comex silver depositories Monday final figures were: Registered 40.51 Moz,
Eligible 103.45 Moz, Total 143.96 Moz.
Crooks and
Scoundrels Corner
The bent,
the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, fact is
stranger than fiction. The wonderful world of suspicious coincidence. God, or someone, certainly works in mysterious
ways. Adam Smith’s “invisible hand” at work, or someone else’s hand at the Ford
Foundation?
“Resentment seems to have been given us by nature for a defence,
and for a defence only! It is the safeguard of justice and the security of
innocence.”
Adam
Smith.
October 9, 2012, 11:55 AM
IST
Geithner Pops Into Old School in New Delhi
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner this morning visited the American Embassy School in New Delhi, where he spent a year as a fifth grade student in 1971-72.Mr. Geithner, like President Barack Obama, spent a sizeable chunk of his childhood overseas.
Peter Geithner, his father, was posted to New Delhi by the Ford Foundation as deputy representative for India, Nepal and Sri Lanka.
Before India, Mr. Geithner had already lived with his family in Zimbabwe and Zambia, where his father worked for the U.S. Agency for International Development. He later lived in Thailand in a peripatetic childhood that is more common today but was less so in the 1970s.
The American Embassy School is an independent day school that was founded in the 1950s in the heart of India’s diplomatic area. Other notable alumni include Hollywood actress Uma Thurman and Hannah Simone from the U.S. sitcom “New Girl.”
Mr. Geithner’s father worked for a while with Mr. Obama’s mother, Stanley Ann Dunham, both of whom were with the Ford Foundation. Ms. Dunham worked on micro-credit programs in Indonesia for the organization and Mr. Obama, who is the same age as Mr. Geithner, spent four years at two local schools in Jakarta between 1967 and 1971.
A spokesman for the U.S. Embassy said that Mr. Geithner visited his former elementary school Tuesday morning. After, Mr. Geithner met Indian Finance Minister P. Chidambaram for the third annual meeting under the U.S.-India Economic and Financial Partnership rubric. A news conference with Mr. Geithner and Mr. Chidambaram is scheduled for 1 p.m.
He will be in Mumbai, India’s financial capital, on Wednesday to meet Reserve Bank of India Governor Duvvuri Subbarao, before heading to Japan for the annual meeting of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund.
Link.
“The
rich...are led by an invisible hand to make nearly the same distribution of the
necessaries of life, which would have been made, had the earth been divided
into equal portions among all its inhabitants, and thus without intending it,
without knowing it, advance the interest of the society..."
Adam
Smith. The Theory of Moral Sentiments
1759. Obsolete Greenspan 1987.
The monthly
Coppock Indicators finished September:
DJIA:
+66 Up. NASDAQ: +88 DOWN. SP500: +85 Up. All three indicators had reversed from
down to up, but now the NASDAQ has reversed again to down. While not
unprecedented, it is a warning sign a that the July reversal from up to down is
about to
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