Baltic Dry Index. 1043 -05
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
"The great merit of gold is precisely that it is scarce; that its quantity is limited by nature; that it is costly to discover, to mine, and to process; and that it cannot be created by political fiat or caprice."
Henry Hazlitt
With mainstream media still leading with the super-storm
Sandy that hit the Northeast USA, and its aftermath, we will let them cover the
big story. Obviously having one of the world’s leading financial centres greatly
impaired, is going to have an impact on the global economy in the short term,
though this isn’t the time to be focused on that. Still it would be nice to
hear from the Fed that their gold vault on Liberty Street stayed dry.
Today we cover Asia and Europe. Better news from
Asia if not yet good news, but we’ll take any positive news we can get. The
economy’s of China, South Korea and Taiwan, all appear to have stopped
declining, although one swallow doesn’t make for a summer. Japan though is
still reeling from the Chinese consumer boycott of Japanese goods, in their
Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands dispute with China. But if a sustainable recovery in
Asia is getting underway, how long before the giant inflation gets underway?
"Of all the contrivances for cheating the laboring classes of mankind, none has been more effective than that which deludes them with paper money."
Daniel Webster
Asian Data Signal Slowdown Easing From Korea to Taiwan: Economy
By Shamim Adam, Debra Mao and
Eunkyung Seo - Oct 31, 2012 3:52 AM GMT
The worst of the declines in Asia- Pacific economies may be moderating, as Taiwan
resumed growth last quarter, South Korean production climbed for the first time
in four months and Singapore’s jobless rate fell. Gross domestic product in Taiwan grew 1.02 percent from a year earlier, after a 0.18 percent decline the previous quarter, a report showed today. South Korea’s industrial output rose 0.8 percent last month from August on stronger car and electronics sales, while Singapore’s unemployment rate eased to 1.9 percent, the lowest since the first quarter of 2011.
China’s economy has shown signs of rebounding this quarter, boosting the outlook for the region’s exports. While Asian stocks rose today, the recovery in growth may be constrained by Japan’s persistent slump and limited expansions in the U.S. and Europe, sustaining pressure for policy stimulus in some Asia- Pacific countries.
“We may be seeing a bottoming in Asia but there won’t be a strong recovery in the short term, given the global environment,” said Edward Lee, a Singapore-based economist at Standard Chartered Plc
More
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-31/taiwan-economy-recovers-as-exports-improve-on-chinese-demand.html
But in European news it was more of the same old story of deepening disaster. Stay long physical precious metals against the breakup of the European Monetary Union. It’s now not a question of if, but when and how.
"Sooner or later both the Greek population and international creditors will tire of fighting a losing battle, leading to a break-up of the currency union as Greece pulls out, probably followed by other countries"
Douglas McWilliams, chief executive of the Centre of Economics and Business Research.
Spain sinks deeper into recession in third quarter
Spain has slipped deeper into recession as the financial crisis and austerity weighs on the embattled country’s economy.
The
Spanish economy shrank by 0.3pc between July and September, marking the fifth
consecutive quarter of contraction.
Spain is
buckling under the pressure of a large deficit and a property crash that has
left its banks struggling under a mountain of bad loans.
Swingeing
spending cuts and tax rises have stifled investment and have left consumers
without the money or the will to spend.
The
third-quarter data from Spain’s national statistics office was a first estimate
of GDP with no detailed breakdown. Despite the decline, it reflected a slightly
better performance than the 0.4pc fall in GDP economists had predicted.
However, economists
said the figure was likely to have been flattered by consumers bringing forward
purchases to beat the VAT rise in September, partly veiling a weak consumer
backdrop.
“Domestic demand likely contracted sharply again, despite
some spending being pulled forward ahead of the VAT hike,” said Greg Fuzesi,
economist at JP Morgan.
BBVA’s Quarterly Profit Slumps as Real Estate Purge Continues
By Charles Penty - Oct 31, 2012 7:12 AM GMT
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA), Spain’s second-biggest bank, said
third-quarter profit fell 82 percent as it continued to purge soured real
estate assets. Net income fell to 146 million euros ($189 million) from 804 million euros in the same period a year earlier, the Bilbao, Spain-based lender said in a filing to regulators today. That missed the average 186.4 million-euro estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 11 analysts.
BBVA said it has completed two-thirds of the provisioning charges needed to comply with government orders to Spanish banks to recognize losses on real estate that piled up on their balance sheets after the property market crashed. Higher profit from Mexico and South America helped to cushion a 532 million- euro nine-month loss from Spain, which still accounts for about 60 percent of BBVA’s lending.
More
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-31/bbva-s-quarterly-profit-slumps-as-real-estate-purge-continues.html
Hungary plans to offer passports to investors buying its debt
Buy our debt and get a European passport, is the latest plan from Hungary's politicians to shore up its balance sheet.
Politicians in Hungary plan to grant a European passport to investors willing to spend at least €250,000 (£202,000) buying up the recession-hit country’s government debt.Under proposed legislation, foreign investors who buy special “residency bonds” would receive preferential immigration treatment. Politicans have suggested buyers would be granted permanent residency and, ultimately, Hungarian citizenship – entitling them to live and work across the European Union, including the UK.
The plans, backed by the ruling Fidesz party, are targeted at Chinese investors, party member Mihaly Babak told a Hungarian newspaper.
“The condition of a preferential process is the purchase of €250,000 worth of bonds with a five-year maturity,” he said. “We can attract capital from the so-called Third World this way and also finance reducing state debt.”
EU Convenes on Greece as Samaras Coalition Squabbles
By Marcus Bensasson and
Stephanie Bodoni - Oct 30, 2012 11:01 PM GMT
Euro-area finance chiefs will try to shunt Greece’s bailout plan back on
track today as officials split on whether the country needs another debt
writedown and Greek politicians squabble over further austerity measures. With recession biting, policy makers are again seeking ways to keep Greece in the euro and avert an exit that former Deutsche Bank Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann said would cost “several hundred billion” euros. Finance ministers will hold a conference call at 12:30 p.m. Brussels time and may release a statement afterwards.
European officials are grappling over ways to fill Greece’s financing gap two weeks before a decision is due on whether to give the country a further round of emergency funds. While German Chancellor Angela Merkel has signaled her desire to stand behind Greece’s euro membership, Prime Minister Antonis Samaras’s coalition is still at odds over the steps needed to secure more money.
---- Policy makers are trying to work out a plan that will cut Greek debt to 120 percent of gross domestic product by 2020 from about 144 percent now amid the worst recession in a generation. Failure to hit the debt target could see the IMF withdraw aid, sparking another wave of speculation about Greece’s future in the euro.
---- In Greece, politicians are still haggling over the measures needed to clinch a new bailout agreement. Samaras yesterday said that negotiations on a new austerity package had been completed, sparking criticism from his coalition partners who said divisions still remain.
Democratic Left, which has said it will support the budget, yesterday reiterated opposition to proposed labor reforms. Pasok leader Evangelos Venizelos said talks on the deal will continue up to a Nov. 12 meeting of euro-area finance ministers
More
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-30/eu-convenes-on-greece-as-samaras-coalition-squabbles.html
Britain 'sorely needed' in EU, says German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has urged Britain to remain strongly engaged in the European Union, responding to a tide of Euroscepticism that Berlin fears could sweep London towards the exit.
6:45AM GMT 30 Oct 2012
Mr
Schaeuble's plea, delivered during a visit to Oxford University, came days
after British Foreign Secretary William Hague mapped out a very different
vision of a much looser EU in which Britain would opt out of many policies.
Chancellor Angela Merkel
said she
would visit Britain, an "important partner", for talks with Prime
Minister David Cameron next week, Reuters reported.
"In
my view the British voice is sorely needed in this [European] competition of
ideas," Mr Schaeuble,
known for his passionately pro-European views, told a mainly academic audience
at Saint Anthony's College in Oxford.
"I
firmly believe Europe would be the poorer without this input to our debates.
Britain should retain and regain a place at the centre of Europe because this
will be good for the European Union."
Ms Merkel
echoed his comments on Monday evening at a gathering of members of her
centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU) in the northern German town of Schwerin.
----"They [the British] are for free trade, for greater competitiveness, so they are a very good partner."
Berlin
has long valued London's free-marketeering influence in the EU as a
counterweight to France and other states that take a more protectionist line
and favour state intervention in industry.
But
Germany, the EU's biggest economy, has grown increasingly frustrated with the
Eurosceptical instincts of Cameron and the bulk of his Conservative lawmakers.
To
Berlin's dismay, Mr Cameron has signalled he wants to use the eurozone crisis
and the moves it has fostered towards much closer integration between the
area's 17 member states to negotiate a much looser relationship between Britain
- which does not have the euro - and the EU.
More
Most British people are keen to remain in
a European free trade zone; and most EU states are keen to keep us there,
because we buy from them more than we sell to them to the tune of £40 million
per day.
Daniel Hannan Conservative MEP.
At the Comex silver depositories Friday final figures were: Registered 36.97
Moz, Eligible 104.85 Moz, Total 141.82 Moz.
Crooks and
Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
Today, more on
Europe’s seriously bent banksters. Click on the UBS link for a letter on
how
not to fire UBS’ professional gamblers.
Banks are an almost irresistible attraction for that element of our society which seeks unearned money.
J. Edgar Hoover
UBS bankers in London head for the pub after being turned away at office door
UBS bankers in London were turned away from their offices on Tuesday and handed a letter putting them on "special leave", just hours after the Swiss bank unveiled a radical restructuring to axe 10,000 jobs.
It was
only when the UBS bankers had their passes refused that they realised they
could be out of a job. Instead of being allowed into the bank’s City
headquarters the traders were whisked to special offices on the fourth floor
where they were handed an envelope containing details of the redundancy
process.
“It was
like a scene out of the Village of the Damned up there,” said one of the
bankers.
“They
said we would be getting two weeks paid leave and then we will be told what is
to happen. I expect we’ll just get a call from human resources or lawyers
telling us how much we are worth. We won’t be able to talk to our bosses.”
Turned
away from their offices, the bankers congregated in The Railway Tavern, one of
the only pubs in the area to open at 8am.
“We were
banging on the door,” said one. “Today is for drinking, tomorrow is for
thinking about our careers,” added another.
----Although the bank failed to detail who many of its 6,500 London-based employees would be lost, scores were not allowed into the bank today, instead being placed on “special leave.”
“Dear
colleague,” the private and confidential letter started. “You will not be
required to continue to perform you current duties at this time…”
The
impersonal letter and the manner they were treated was seen by some as an
insult, by others as a natural result of current economic and political
conditions.
“It is
about regulation, about politics, Switzerland demands the highest capital
ratios, around, 18pc,” explained one of the bankers who asked to remain
anonymous.
“They are
just shutting down the capital intensive side of the business. Switzerland has
lost all appetite for risk.”
UBS Fixed-Income Capitalulation Boon for Deutsche Bank
By Annette Weisbach and
Nicholas Comfort - Oct 30, 2012 11:01 PM GMT
Global investment banks such as Barclays Plc (BARC) and Deutsche Bank AG
(DBK) will probably increase their market share after UBS AG (UBSN) decided to
scale back its investment bank in the face of higher capital requirements. UBS announced an unexpected pretax loss of 2.87 billion Swiss francs ($2.7 billion) for its investment banking arm yesterday and job cuts totaling 10,000 across its business. Deutsche Bank reported an eight-fold surge in its pretax profit from investment banking, and revenue from the business at Barclays may climb 23 percent when it reports today, Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN) analysts said
More
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-30/ubs-fixed-income-capitalulation-boon-for-deutsche-bank.html
The monthly
Coppock Indicators finished September:
DJIA: +66 Up. NASDAQ: +88 DOWN. SP500: +85 Up. All three indicators had reversed from down to up, but now the NASDAQ has reversed again to down. While not unprecedented, it is a warning sign a that the July reversal from up to down is about to fail.
