Monday 11 June 2012

Spain Down, Italy Next.


Baltic Dry Index. 877 +05

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

'Humpty Euro sat on a wall:
Humpty Euro had a great fall.
All the King's horses and all the King's men
Couldn't put the Euro in its place again.
'

With apologies to Lewis Carroll.

Spain, which all last month its Prime Minister and Finance Minister were denying a need for a bailout, agreed at the weekend to be bailed out by Germany with a 100 billion loan for its banks. (Are France, Italy and the rest, really good for their share of the EFSF?) In reality the final amount won’t be known until after the Spanish banks are audited, but it’s believed about a 100 billion euro will do for now. Piling more debt on Spain will buy time, but it won’t solve Spain or Euroland’s euro problem. Club Med needs to devalue against the north and reform their economies and lack of tax paying systems. Neither can happen trapped in the German austerity union. And so with a relief rally underway in Asia’s stock markets, attention will soon turn to looking at Italy, although the French election yesterday giving the Socialists parliamentary control, final results next week, (plus the Greek election,) will rocket France into vying with Italy as to becoming the next Spain. At the very least, serious capital flight will now take place from France. As someone once almost remarked, a hundred billion euro here, a hundred billion euro there, and pretty soon you’re talking real money, although that was before the Great Nixonian Error of 1971 ended “real money.”

Mark Rutte, the Dutch finance minister, said that any plan to issue loans to Spain via the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) would have to subjected to a parliamentary vote. Finland is also likely to demand a vote of approval.

Below the stranded Costa Europa this morning, with the Spanish deck now at the waterline, all eyes are on the next deck up. Interestingly, if the Spanish bailout funds are to come from the EFSF, Finland wants some Spanish collateral for its contribution. With “operation twist and a half” ending in America this month, the Bank of England pretending that the UK doesn’t need more Quantitative Easing to rescue the falling UK economy, France and Greece still to vote next weekend for anti-austerity fantasy parties, and China looking like it’s come down with a bad case of European contagion, June 2012 looks like becoming the month that 2008 returns.

'When I use a word,' Prime minister Mario Rajoy said, in rather a scornful tone, 'it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.'

With apologies to Humpty Dumpty and Lewis Carroll.

Debt crisis: Spain bows to €100bn bank bailout

Spain paved the way for a €100bn (£81bn) bail-out of its stricken banking sector on Saturday night as European leaders moved to bring a halt to the continued economic malaise hurting the eurozone.

The troubled country – the fourth-largest economy in the eurozone – said it would ask for a capital injection once the full extent of its banking problems were known.

In an early-evening speech in Madrid, finance minister Luis de Guindos said it would request assistance “for those banks that need it”.

He denied that it was a rescue of the Spanish economy as a whole, but rather “financial support” for the banks concerned.

Mr De Guindos said the amount eventually requested would depend on the capital required by banks, plus a “significant margin”. Euro area finance ministers confirmed that the amount could be up to €100bn.

The Spanish government has hired consultants Oliver Wyman and Roland Berger to undertake audits of the entire banking system’s capital requirements. Their reports are due by the end of June.

In addition, another series of audits – to be conducted by accountants KPMG, PwC, Ernst & Young and Deloitte – will look at each of the major banks in turn. Only once the reports are complete will the formal request be made.

------The funding for the capital injections will come from the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), the eurozone’s rescue fund. However, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will have an oversight role.

Spain reaction: 'This is a rescue for the rich. The poor will only get poorer'

It has become a common sight at Bankia branches across Spain since the banking group became the first last month to declare it needed a massive injection of funds to shore it up.

Mobs of angry citizens storming branches, banging saucepans and chanting slogans in noisy protests at the plan to rescue Spain's most stricken banking entity while the population suffers deep austerity measures and struggles against disappearing credit-lines.

But as Spaniards woke up today to the news that the EU had given their banks a lifeline of up to €100bn there was optimism that, at last, something had been done to stop the rot.

"Spain, finally, will be rescued," screamed the frontpage of Spain's leading daily newspaper El Pais
"Tragedy for the moment has been averted."

Even as pundits struggled to explain the about turn by the government which had insisted even hours before the announcement that no such request would be made, Spain's embattled Prime Minister claimed the agreement as a personal victory.

----While acknowledging that a "line of credit" had been opened up for Spain's financial system, he accepted that the country's deep economic misery would worsen. "This year is going to be a bad one," he said.
That warning will only add to the public outrage at the disastrous state of Spain's banking sector which has brought the nation to its knees. Co-ordinated groups have been taking simultaneous action at bank branches in cities across Spain, mobilised by social networks, to find a voice against what many view as the scandal of banking mismanagement.

"Why should they rescue the banks when our children are starving?" screamed one placard outside a Bankia branch in Madrid's Plaza de Celenque during a protest at the weekend.

Many protestors have already lost their homes due to foreclosures and complain of the generosity towards the banking system while they are left without aid. Spaniards are slamming the 'impunity' of the bankers as details of pay-offs to former senior executives further enrage those struggling to pay their bills and suffering deep cuts in public spending.

Finland Wants Collateral for Spanish Bank Aid From EFSF

By Kasper Viita - Jun 9, 2012 10:00 PM GMT
Finland will demand collateral for its share of emergency loans to shore up the Spanish banking system should the money come from the euro-region’s temporary bailout fund, Finance Minister Jutta Urpilainen said.

“It remains undecided whether the bailout will be granted via the temporary facility, in which case Finland will require collateral,” Urpilainen told reporters in Kokkola, Finland, yesterday. The other alternative is to grant the loan through the European Stability Mechanism, the “permanent crisis mechanism, which will provide better security for taxpayers” and won’t result in demands for extra guarantees, Urpilainen said.

Euro-area finance ministers agreed to bail out Spanish banks in a rescue worth as much as 100 billion euros ($125 billion) after the country’s access to market funding narrowed. The exact amount will be decided after an audit of the nation’s banks is complete later this month, Urpilainen said

Finland demands collateral for payments from the European Financial Stability Facility, the temporary rescue fund, because it lacks a preferred creditor status. The ESM’s preferred status and the rules on private-sector burden sharing in case of default mean the permanent fund is less likely to incur losses, Finnish Finance Ministry aide Martti Salmi said yesterday.
More
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-09/finland-wants-collateral-for-spanish-bank-aid-from-efsf.html

Debt crisis: €100bn bailout could backfire on Spain

Spain's €100bn bank bailout could backfire on Madrid by destabilising public finances and hampering the country’s access to capital markets, experts have warned.

Prime minister Mario Rajoy today hailed the deal with Brussels as a “victory” for Spain and the eurozone, but analysts said it was unlikely to convince financial markets for long. Mr Rajoy’s claims that Spain’s public finances would not be impacted were disputed, even though the details of the deal have not been released.
“A bail-out is a bail-out, Spain, sorry,” said Steen Jakobsen chief economist of Saxo Bank, arguing that the liability for cost will be added to Spain’s public debt, even indirectly.

Open Europe, the London-based think tank, said if Spanish banks take up Brussels’ offer of €100bn in loans, Spain’s public debt would grow by around 10pc.

“If this is a victory - finally dealing with a glaring problem after four years - then we don’t want to see a defeat,” said Raoul Ruparel of Open Europe.
More

Europe's democracies must not subcontract their destiny to the Bundebank

Europe has lit the fuse on an economic and financial bomb. The rescue package for Spain cannot plausibly be contained to €100bn once it begins, given the subordination of private creditors and collapse of global confidence in the governing structure of monetary union.

Italy must guarantee 22pc of the bail-out funds, even though it cannot raise money itself at a sustainable rate. 
You could hardly design a surer way to pull Italy into the fire.

Citigroup warned over the weekend that Italy’s economy will shrink by 2.5pc this year and another 2pc next year as the fiscal squeeze starts in earnest, with grim implications for debt dynamics. Public debt will jump from 121pc of GDP to 137pc by 2014.

“The situation could rapidly become critical, because the country is highly vulnerable if the sovereign debt crisis persists or intensifies. A significant further rise in yields would deepen and extend the recession and accelerate the rise in the debt/GDP ratio, triggering a worsening vicious circle. We expect that Italy will have to request help,” it said.

The world is uncomfortably close to a 1931 moment. Italy’s public debt is the world’s third largest after the US and Japan at €1.9 trillion. There is no margin for political error.

Economic Worries Euro Crisis Hits German Exports

6/08/2012
The German economy has seemed surprisingly resistant to the ill effects of Europe's financial crisis. But an April drop in exports suggests that Europe's largest economy may not be immune after all.

For much of 2010 and 2011, the German economy seemed immune to the euro crisis raging around it. Now, however, it looks as though those days are over. Several indicators show that dark clouds are gathering over the country's economic output. The latest of those came on Friday.

According to data released on Friday by Germany's Federal Statistical Office, exports fell by 1.7 percent in April in comparison with March. The fall, while expected, was twice what most economists had forecast. It marks the first time in 2012 that German exports have fallen. In total, Germany exported €81.7 billion ($102 billion) worth of goods in April.

The data revealed that Germany can no longer count on the strength of growth in developing countries to offset the euro crisis. Exports to euro-zone countries mired in debt crises fell by 3.6 percent in April. Even though exports to non-European countries actually grew 10.3 percent in the month, demand from China and India has slowed, and German companies are worried.

"German companies have the feeling that foreign demand is not as dynamic as before and that the global economy is entering a weak phase," Dekabank economist Andreas Scheuerle told the conservative daily Die Welt. Still, he added, the main problem was more local. "The weakness is coming from the euro zone, where the debt crisis is not only taking the form of budget plans and savings programs, but it is also creating more uncertainty about the economic situation that's being reflected in weaker investment."
More

My guess is that the relief rally will be temporary and soon give way to reality. The Euro is disintegrating before our eyes and this latest fix fixes little and buys little time.  Either Euroland now quickly goes on to become a real “United States of Europe,” dropping national sovereignty along the way, (and national football teams?,) something Europe’s voters are unlikely to embrace, or the never ending crisis will simply go getting larger and more costly with each botched attempt at a fix. Eventually it flies apart anyway, destroying a whole lot of European wealth in the process, and negatively impacting the UK and the rest of the world economies. Stay long physical precious metals against this eventuality. June 2012 will probably go down in history as the month that the 2008 crisis returned, and the Great Nixonian Error of fiat currencies became terminal.

Mario Draghi took the book and looked at it carefully. 'That seems to be done right —' he began.

'You're holding it upside down!' Alice interrupted.

'To be sure I was!' Mario said gaily as she turned it round for him. 'I thought it looked a little queer. As I was saying, that seems to be done right — though I haven't time to look it over thoroughly just now

With apologies to Lewis Carroll.

At the Comex silver depositories Friday final figures were: Registered 35.74 Moz, Eligible 107.74 Moz, Total 143.48 Moz.   

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