Saturday, 23 June 2012

Another Wasted Week.


Baltic Dry Index. 978 unch  

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable.

Alexander Solzhenitsyn

They came, they talked, she conquered. And to add injury to insult Germany’s football team kicked Greece out of the euro. If only they all would give up on impossible, unworkable, rescues and focus instead on the only solution that will work, short of Europe abandoning too big to fail and going back on to an internal gold settlement system. That solution, of course, is the other Eurozone members forcing Germany and its tiny allies out of the existing monetary union and establishing their own monetary union of the north. It won’t happen of course, and so the never ending European monetary crisis will drift along until it all falls apart in an epic European, wealth destroying, break up.

Below, the latest failed mini summit in Rome. Not to worry though, there’s yet another European summit coming up on June 29th.

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit (debt) expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit (debt) expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

Ludwig von Mises

Debt crisis: Angela Merkel defies Latin Europe and the IMF on bond rescue

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has shot down calls for full mobilisation of the eurozone's bail-out funds to halt the raging bond crisis in Spain and Italy, ignoring unprecedented pleas for action from the International Monetary Fund.

"Each country wants to help but if I am going to call on taxpayers in Germany, I must have guarantees that all is under control. Responsibility and control go hand in hand," she said after a crucial summit of the eurozone's Big Four powers in Rome.

Mrs Merkel -- or La Signora No in Italy -- doused hopes of a break-through on proposals by the "Latin Bloc" leaders of Italy, France, and Spain to deploy the funds (EFSF and ESM) to cap the bond yields of "virtuous" countries vulnerable to contagion, or to recapitalize banks directly to take the strain off sovereign states.

"If I give moneystriaght to Spanish banks, I can't control what they do. That is how the treaties are written," she said, before racing off to Danzig to tonight for Euro 2012 quarter final between Greece and German..

Christine Lagarde, the head of the IMF, warned before the summit that the eurozone is under "acute stress" and at risk of a downward spiral.

"The viability of the European monetary system is questioned. There must be a recapitalisation of the weak banks, with preferably a direct link between the EFSF/ESM and the banks, in order to break the negative feedback loop that we have between banks and sovereigns."

She called on the European Central Bank to back-stop the financial system with "creative and inventive" measures to fight the crisis.

Italy's premier Mario Monti put the best face on events, insisting that the Big Four leaders had come together at the birth place of the European Project to do whatever it takes to shore up monetary union.
"The euro is here to stay and we all mean it," he said, switching from Italian into English to send an emphatic message to markets and Anglo-Saxon world.

For all the rhetoric at Rome's Villa Madama -- a Rennaissance retreat of the Medici family designed by Raphael -- the trio of Latin leaders seemingly failed to shift German Merkel one inch in the direction of debt pooling or genuine fiscal union.

The contrast between pro-forma talk of "more Europe" in the Roman hills and the festering reality on the ground in austerity Europe was not lost on those at the summit. Across the Tiber, much of Rome was paralysed by a bus and metro strike, evidence of the growing resitance to the harsh fiscal squeeze imposed by Mr Monti's technocrat government.

French president Francois Hollande did not hide his frustration, warning that France would not accede to German demands for a step-change in EU integration until Berlin puts the neuraligic issue of shared debts on the table. "There will be no transfer of sovereignty without greater solidarity, " he said acidly.
More

Bundesbank Swipes at Draghi as European Fault Lines Deepen

By John Fraher and Gabi Thesing - Jun 23, 2012 12:01 AM GMT
The Bundesbank opposition to the European Central Bank’s plan to help ailing financial institutions is its latest swipe at the crisis-fighting efforts of Mario Draghi’s central bank.

As Spanish banks scramble for collateral to use in the refinancing operations that are keeping them afloat, the Frankfurt-based ECB said it will cut the rating thresholds and amend eligibility requirements for some asset-backed securities. While the move will give stressed banks greater access to ECB liquidity, it may also increase the amount of risk on the central bank’s balance sheet.

“We’re critical of this,” Bundesbank spokesman Michael Best said yesterday. In terms of collateral, “we won’t accept what we don’t have to accept,” he said.

The criticism highlights one of the fault lines dividing European officials as they struggle to end a crisis threatening to rip the currency union apart. As Draghi’s officials scramble to put together policies that will fight the latest stage of the turmoil, German policy makers are emphasizing the dangers of pursuing unorthodox policies that potentially put taxpayers on the hook for future losses.

----Looser collateral is the latest issue to divide Europeans days before a summit that Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti said must succeed or risk a bond-market selloff.

----In February, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann wrote to Draghi warning of the risks the ECB is taking in lending more than 1 trillion euros ($1.3 trillion) to banks. The ECB’s Target2 system, which calculates debts between the euro region’s central banks, shows that the amount owed to the Bundesbank has soared as Germany helps fund the region’s most indebted nations.
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Below, yet another reason to think that the European Monetary Union ends badly, and soon. With temperatures approaching 100 in Athens, more than just German tourists will be giving Greece a pass this season.

Risk of Greek blackouts increases as traders cut or halt power supplies

Power traders in at least four countries have reduced or halted electricity exports to Greece due to non-payments, helping to force market prices sharply higher in a potential blow to struggling industries and raising the risk of blackouts during the tourist season.

Reuters 5:18PM BST 22 Jun 2012
With Greece deep in crisis, power grid operator LAGHE owes foreign and domestic suppliers 3 27 million euros ($410 million), a court document obtained by Reuters showed, as its revenue falls due to the recession and a refusal by many Greeks to pay their bills.

Trading sources said that at least four trading companies in Switzerland, Italy, Bulgaria and Germany have either lowered or cut off sales to Greece due to high credit risk and delays in payments over the past 2-3 months for power they sold.

"We have stopped power sales to Greece," said Claus Urbanke, head of new markets at Statkraft, a Nordic utility which trades electricity throughout Europe.

"We have quite considerably reduced volumes in order to control risk exposure in Greece due to the delays of payments by the market operator," said a Swiss-based trader.

The traders asked not to be identified or their companies named as they are not authorised to speak to the press.
More

"Sooner or later both the Greek population and international creditors will tire of fighting a losing battle, leading to a break-up of the currency union as Greece pulls out, probably followed by other countries"

Douglas McWilliams, chief executive of the Centre of Economics and Business Research.

At the Comex silver depositories Friday final figures were: Registered 35.88 Moz, Eligible 110.49 Moz, Total 146.37 Moz.   

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of state and corporate power.

Benito Mussolini.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished May:
DJIA: +71 Down. NASDAQ: +79 Down. SP500: +46 Down. All three indicators remain down but downward momentum is accelerating again after stalling earlier in the year.
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