Tuesday, 19 June 2012

Catastrophe Avoided, Armageddon Next.


Baltic Dry Index. 938 +14


LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

"Catastrophe is avoided for now, but we suggest caution," said Société Générale

E-F & G all voted but nothing much was accomplished, much less anything good. 55% of Greek voters voted against austerity, yet another weak austerity government is what Greece will get. Greece’s exit from the euro is delayed but not for long. Greece is now split generationally as well with the young largely voting for the opposition. Egypt voted but so did the generals, who voted to turn back the clock to hidden military rule. I suspect that a greatly destabilised Egypt will be the result. A further destabilised middle east region too, with another Egyptian revolution likely ahead.  In France it was a big win for the promoters of “sack the rich” wealth envy.  Old socialism is about to try to turn back the French clock to the late 1970s and 1980s. A new war with Germany looms to, though the French president would do well to remember another June 18th date in French history. Napoleon met his Waterloo at the hands of the British and Prussians. For now capital flight from Paris to Berlin, Geneva, London and New York is the likely immediate result. Stay long physical precious metals.

The old regime everywhere is passing, but nothing good yet seems to be emerging to replace it. Stay long physical precious metals, it is time to protect the family wealth.

Why did I take up stealing? To live better, to own things I couldn't afford, to acquire this good taste that you now enjoy and which I should be very reluctant to give up.

Greece, with apologies to Cary Grant. To Catch A Thief.

June 18, 2012, 4:15 p.m. ET

Greek Clash With Germany on Bailout Looms

Greece appears headed for a new clash with Germany over its rigid bailout program as the winners of Sunday's Greek election prepare to ask Europe for more time to cut public spending.Greece's conservative New Democracy party and its likely Socialist coalition partner, known as Pasok, are working on a proposal to ask other euro-zone countries for an extra two years to meet Greece's fiscal targets, officials involved in the preparations said. The request would mean that on top of the €173 billion ($218.7 billion) bailout plan agreed early this year, Greece would need an additional €16 billion in financing from Europe, these officials said.

The plan would present Northern Europe's creditor nations, led by Germany, with a dilemma. Europe is eager to help a new Greek government to strengthen popular support for the country's tough bailout program and to combat Greece's deepening recession. But German Chancellor Angela Merkel is also loath to increase the size of the Greek bailout, something that could split her fractious governing coalition in Berlin.
Ms. Merkel told a news conferences during the summit of the Group of 20 leading industrial and developing economies in Los Cabos, Mexico, that Greece's leaders "must fulfill their commitments quickly" under the bailout deal.

"There won't be any changes to the memorandum of understanding" setting out the fiscal and other overhauls that Athens must make in return for aid, she said.
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Greek agony drags on as Asphyxiation Bloc wins

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Economics Last updated: June 18th, 2012
Europe’s establishment is delighted by the victory of New Democracy and pro-asphyxiation bloc. This relief is unlikely to last much beyond today, if that.

Greece’s new leaders have a mandate from Hell. Almost 52pc of the popular vote went to parties that opposed the bail-out Memorandum in one way or another. There is no national acceptance of the Troika’s austerity policies whatsoever.

The hard-Left Syriza party of Alexis Tsipras is arguably more dangerous in opposition, now fortified with big bloc of seats in Parliament. He can lacerate the government without responsibility as the state sheds 150,000 public sector workers, a fifth of the total.

It was for this outcome that the Greece’s elected government was toppled last year in an EU Putsch. We now learn from ex-premier George Papandreou that this was "all Sarkozy’s fault".

France’s leader refused to let Papandreou call a referendum on the bail-out terms (which would almost certainly have passed), and Chancellor Angela Merkel went along with this shoddy act of EU colonialism. The EU threatened, in effect, to cut off Troika payments. The PASOK government was replaced by an EU-appointed technocrat.

A frightening precedent was set, and for no purpose. All the EU has achieved is to replace a truculent Greek parliament with one that is completely unworkable.

As for New Democracy, it cannot meet the terms of each quarterly Troika payment in the future even if it secures the support of PASOK socialists because the terms are – politically – impossible to meet.

Year after year of "internal devaluation" will drive unemployment to catastrophic levels before it breaks the back of the labour movement sufficiently to clear the way for drastic pay cuts. It is basically a Fascist policy. Mussolini pulled it of in 1928 under the Lira Forte policy, but he had coercive advantages.
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June 18, 2012, 10:01 a.m. ET

Spanish Yields Surge; Greek Relief Wanes

Spain's 10-year government bond yield soared above 7% and equities lost early gains as investors struggled to find much to cheer about in the slim victory for the New-Democracy party in the Greek election.

---- "Greek election results are unlikely to resolve euro-zone uncertainty," said Barclays. "Instead, the focus should shift to the June 28-29 EC summit, the likely renegotiation of the Greek austerity package, and to Spanish yields."

Spain's 10-year yield was recently 0.28 percentage point higher at 7.14%, while the corresponding Italian yield was up 0.14 percentage point at 6.07%, according to Tradeweb. Greece, Portugal and Ireland succumbed to bailouts when their government bond yields hit the 7% level. The September German bund contract was up 0.46 at 142.75.

Spanish banks were under pressure Monday as the focus shifted away from Greece—at least for now—and to other financially stressed nations, such as Spain and Italy

---- "Questions over the Spanish banking-sector bailout will persist, with clarification this week on how much will be requested—likely an amount somewhat larger than the €40 billion recommended by the International Monetary Fund, but below the €100 billion on offer from the euro area," said Standard Chartered. "In Italy, growing political strains and the risk of an early election are likely to underpin borrowing costs, while Cyprus may yet need a bailout as it faces an end-June deadline for bank recapitalization."
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Elsewhere, G-20 leaders slumming it in Los Cabos Mexico while toiling away at solving the world’s problems are proposing to give the Greeks some more rope. Cash and some way of stimulating the dying Greek economy might be more useful, than more rope tied to debt. But first this.  Much to the amusement of China and Russia, ex-communist, EC President Barroso opened up the European contribution to the latest G-20 junket, with a blast at American banksters and Great Vampire Squids. Stay long precious metals, the euro is now on borrowed time. So Mr. Barroso, which US banksters put a gun to Europe’s politicians heads, forcing them to create and then join the fatally flawed Bilderberger Euro project?  Why should Vampire Squids not make money out of Euroland’s failings, when they routinely bet against their Muppets, when not actually setting out to steal from them?

Old Ebenezer Squid had one-way pockets. He would walk ten miles in the snow to chisel a European politician out of tuppence.

With apologies to P.G. Wodehouse and orphans and the Duke of Dunstable

G20 summit: Barroso blames eurozone crisis on US banks

EC president says European leaders have not come to Mexico to receive lessons on how to handle the economy
Tuesday 19 June 2012
The opening day of the G20 summit was threatening to deteriorate into a fractious row between eurozone countries and other non-European members of the G20, notably the US, as EU commission president José Manuel Barroso insisted the origins of the eurozone crisis lay in the unorthodox policies of American capitalism.

As Europe's leaders came under intense pressure to act decisively to cure the euro's ills, and a campaign gathered pace to relax some of the austerity programmes laying waste to countries with unsustainable debt levels, Barroso said Europe had not come to the G20 summit in Mexico to receive lessons on how to handle the economy. Asked by a Canadian journalist: "Why should North Americans risk their assets to help Europe?" he replied: "Frankly, we are not here to receive lessons in terms of democracy or in terms of how to handle the economy.

"This crisis was not originated in Europe … seeing as you mention North America, this crisis originated in North America and much of our financial sector was contaminated by, how can I put it, unorthodox practices, from some sectors of the financial market."
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June 18, 2012, 9:54 a.m. ET

G-20 Plans Push for Growth, Again

Leaders to Urge Euro Zone to Turn Focus Away From Austerity in Order to Stem Turmoil's Impact on Global Economy

LOS CABOS, Mexico—Leaders of the world's largest advanced and emerging economies gathering Monday will find themselves largely where they left off last November in France, facing risks from Europe that threaten to cripple the global economy.

The stakes are higher this time for the Group of 20 nations, as both rich and developing economies are slowing in unison.

The leaders, however, don't expect to settle the latest crisis at this forum, just a day after elections in Greece and France, and with just a handful of the euro zone's 17 economies represented. Rather, they hope the discussions will continue into key gatherings of European leaders in the next two weeks.

The G-20 member nations, which account for two-thirds of the world's population and about 85% of global economic output, are expected to press for swifter and stronger action by European leaders to contain the financial turmoil and prevent the breakup of the currency union. Several nations also are pushing to steer the international focus away from budget austerity and toward other steps for spurring stronger growth.

---- If supporters of the international bailout manage to form a coalition government in Athens, the G-20 is likely to press euro-zone officials to adjust the rescue package to provide Greece with substantial breathing room—by extending the deadlines for hitting certain budget targets, for instance. Because the G-20 membership includes the leading members of the International Monetary Fund, which is participating in the Greek bailout, they could use the forum to set a course for giving Greece more rope.
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Banks are an almost irresistible attraction for that element of our society which seeks unearned money.

J Edgar Hoover.

At the Comex silver depositories Monday final figures were: Registered 35.86 Moz, Eligible 108.92 Moz, Total 144.78 Moz.   


Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Below, Europe hits the jackpot with another almost half a trillion US dollars to waste, propping up the one size fits all Bilderberger euro. But the rescue funds come with a price tag. No more French perverts running the IMF fiefdom. In fact no more failed European politicians at all, unless they happen to be Russian.

IMF wins pledges of $456bn for crisis fund

The International Monetary Fund has expanded its crisis-fighting fund to $456bn after 12 more countries, including powerful emerging market countries, pledged funding.

5:59AM BST 19 Jun 2012
In April, the IMF targeted $430bn to deal with the effects of the eurozone crisis on the global economy, with the UK promising $15bn, but only gathered firm commitments of around $360bn when the BRICS countries - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa - held back.

At the G20 summit in Mexico, BRICS leaders said they had "agreed to enhance their own contributions to the IMF" by $95.5bn.

The money came with a warning that things had to change at the Fund, long dominated by the now troubled economic powers of Europe and the United States, which is not contributing despite its huge voting power on the IMF board.

While Washington has insisted Europe has enough resources to resolve its problems itself, it is also clear that the deeply divided Congress is in no mood, given the US economic problems, to contribute rescue funds for others.

The IMF chief said in a statement on Tuesday: "Countries large and small have rallied to our call for action, and more may join. I salute them and their commitment to multilateralism. As a result, total pledges have risen to $456bn, almost doubling our lending capacity.

"With today's announcements by an additional 12 countries, a total of 37 IMF member countries... have joined this collective effort, demonstrating the broad commitment of the membership to ensure the IMF has access to adequate resources to carry out its mandate in the interests of global financial stability."

The $456bn is still below the $500bn the fund's own economists had said would be an adequate expansion of its crisis intervention funding, given the potential of more contagion in the troubled eurozone.
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"The great merit of gold is precisely that it is scarce; that its quantity is limited by nature; that it is costly to discover, to mine, and to process; and that it cannot be created by political fiat or caprice."

Henry Hazlitt

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished May:

DJIA: +71 Down. NASDAQ: +79 Down. SP500: +46 Down. All three indicators remain down but downward momentum is accelerating again after stalling earlier in the year.

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