Tuesday, 5 June 2012

Is It Over?


Baltic Dry Index. 904 

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

“The problem with fiat money is that it rewards the minority that can handle money, but fools the generation that has worked and saved money.”

“Adam Smith” aka George Goodman. The Money Game.

"As fewer and fewer people have confidence in paper as a store of value, the price of gold will continue to rise." "The history of fiat money is little more than a register of monetary follies and inflations. Our present age merely affords another entry in this dismal register."

Hans F. Sennholz

Global slump alert as world money contracts

Growth of the world money supply has dropped to the lowest level since the financial crisis of 2008-2009, heralding a severe economic slowdown later this year unless authorites rapidly take action.

The latest data show that the real M1 money supply – cash and overnight deposits – for China, the eurozone, Britain and the US has been contracting since the early Spring. Any further falls risk a full-blown global recession.

Clear signs of trouble are emerging in the US, until now the last bastion of strength. The New York Institute of Supply Management said its ISM business index – a proxy for business demand – flashed a "screeching halt" in May, crashing to 49.9 from 61.2 in April, where anything below 50 denotes contraction. 

Unemployment is rising again after grim jobs data for April and May, indicating that the economy may have fallen below stall speed.

Central bank governors and finance ministers from the G7 bloc are to hold an emergency teleconference call on Tuesday to grapple with Europe's escalating crisis. There is mounting anger in North America and Asia over the failure of the Europeans to use their vast resources to contain the brushfire in Spain.

The world money data collected by Simon Ward at Henderson Global Investors show that real M1 for the G7 economies and leading E7 emerging powers peaked at 5.1pc in November and has since plunged to 1.6pc in April. The data explain why commodity prices are falling hard, with Brent crude down to a 16-month low of under $97 a barrel.

China's money data are falling at the fastest pace since records began.

Global Manufacturing Growth Shudders Towards a Halt

Author: Edward Hugh  · 

As the Global report puts it, the main drag on global industry remains Europe, where the Eurozone and UK PMIs fell to three-year lows. PMIs for Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and Greece all signaled contractions. Ireland saw a modest expansion, while Austria edged closer to stagnation. But beyond this activity, Eastern Europe weakened, as it did in Asia and the Americas.

New business continued to contract, with the rate of contraction especially marked, according to the report, in the case of export orders. Manufacturers in Europe, China and Japan all reported reduced levels of new export business, while growth in new exports slowed sharply in the US.

With the world nervously waiting to see how the Greek election process pans out, and where the Spanish government will find the money to recapitalise the country’s banks, the slowdown in China is turning out to be a wild card, which simply puts negative feedback into an already difficult situation.

Most eyes at the present time are, however, firmly fixed on Europe, and in particular the Euro Area, where the seasonally adjusted Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell to a near three-year low of 45.1, down from 45.9 in April and little-changed from the earlier flash estimate of 45.0. The Euro Area PMI has now signalled contraction in each of the past ten months.

June 4, 2012, 6:47 p.m. ET

Crisis Makes Greeks Wait Even Longer for Pay

ATHENS—Henry Dunant Hospital, a gleaming, state-of-the-art facility in central Athens, is one of the best medical centers in Greece. But quality hasn't protected it from one of the most troubling trends of the country's economic crisis: a plague of late payments that threatens to drive Greeks deeper into an economic abyss.

The hospital's 1,150 employees, doctors included, have yet to be paid any of their 2012 salaries. Employees just received the final payment of their 2011 salaries at the end of May. The hospital, which is owned by the Greek Red Cross, owes tens of millions of euros to its suppliers and banks. It, in turn, is owed at least €20 million ($24.8 million) by the Greek government.

Henry Dunant is one of a sharply growing number of Greek institutions and companies that aren't paying because they haven't been paid. Many employees aren't receiving their salaries—certainly not on time and sometimes not at all. Businesses aren't paying each other. And the government isn't paying its suppliers or refunds owed to taxpayers.

"The only reason this hospital is open now is because the unpaid employees are keeping it open," said Anthony Rapp, a former manager of U.S. Air Force hospitals who is part of a new executive team brought in to save it. "What is happening in this hospital is a microcosm of what is happening in Greece."

Late payments have soared in Greece since the crisis began in 2010 and have become endemic over the past six months.

Between 400,000 and 500,000 of the country's two million private-sector employees working under contract haven't been paid in three months or more, according to the Greek government's labor-market inspector.
More

Eurozone debt crisis could spark bear market in US, Goldman Sachs warns

An escalation of the financial crisis in Spain or elsewhere in the eurozone could fuel a bear market in the US, Goldman Sachs warned.

A report said that although it was most likely that an election on June 17 would result in Greece remaining in the single currency, “financial contagion or crisis in Spain” could prompt a bear market.

Outlining mid-year forecasts, David Kostin, chief US equity strategist, said that should the crisis in the region worsen, the S&P 500 index could fall to 1,125. That would represent a 21pc loss compared with its 2012 closing peak of 1,419.04.

Mr Kostin said there were three key events in the short-term that could heighten investor uncertainty: the Greek election on June 17; the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee; and the US Supreme Court’s ruling on healthcare reform.

He gave a central mid-year forecast for the S&P 500 of 1,325, should there be no intensification of the eurozone crisis.

"Until government administrators can so identify the interests of government with those of the people and refrain from defrauding the masses through the device of currency depreciation for the sake of remaining in office, the wiser ones will prefer to keep as much of their wealth in the most stable and marketable forms possible - forms which only the precious metals provide."

Elgin Groseclose

At the Comex silver depositories Monday final figures were: Registered 35.74 Moz, Eligible 107.24 Moz, Total 142.98 Moz.   

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

"Finance is the art of hypothecating segregated client money from bank to bank  until it finally disappears."

With apologies to Robert W. Sarnoff.

MF Global chief Jon Corzine faces legal action over broker-dealer's collapse

Former MF Global chief executive Jon Corzine and other senior directors could be forced to pay customers millions of dollars under legal actions being pursued by the bankrupt broker-dealer's trustee.

In a report to the bankruptcy court, James Giddens, the trustee, said "claims of breach of fiduciary duty and negligence may be asserted against" Mr Corzine and other former top executives, including Henri Steenkamp, the ex-chief financial officer, and Edith O'Brien, former assistant treasurer.

Mr Giddens said he would decide within 60 days whether to sue directors for some of the hundreds of millions of dollars of MF Global's customer money that was lost in the firm's final hours last year.
JP Morgan, which acted for MF Global, could also face legal action. It has returned about $89m (£58m) of customer property and $518m of MF Global assets but Mr Giddens said he could sue the bank if an agreement over further returns was not struck.

"I have determined there may be valid claims against individuals and entities," Mr Giddens said. "In my capacity as trustee, I will make every effort to ensure that such claims result in the greatest possible returns to customers, whether those claims are pursued by my office or others.

"My investigation has concluded that management's actions, along with the lack of sufficient monitoring and systems, resulted in customer property being used during the liquidity crisis to fund the extraordinary liquidity drains elsewhere in the business."

The customer shortfall amounts to about $1.6bn. Many clients were individual investors and farmers who used commodities contracts as part of their normal course of business.

Mr Corzine, a former US senator and New Jersey governor who made his fortune as the head of Goldman Sachs, was the architect of MF Global's collapse, the report alleged.

"Gold bears the confidence of the world's millions, who value it far above the promises of politicians, far above the unbacked paper issued by governments as money substitutes. It has been that way through all recorded history. There is no reason to believe it will lose the confidence of people in the future."

Oakley R. Bramble

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished May:
DJIA: +71 Down. NASDAQ: +79 Down. SP500: +46 Down. All three indicators remain down but downward momentum is accelerating again after stalling earlier in the year.

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