Liberation Day Or Depression Day 2.0? MAGA V MEPA?

Baltic Dry Index. 1587 -11          Brent Crude 74.50

Spot Gold 3120               US 2 Year Yield 3.87 -0.02  

US Federal Debt. 36.672 trillion!!!

"As fewer and fewer people have confidence in paper as a store of value, the price of gold will continue to rise. The history of fiat money is little more than a register of monetary follies and inflations. Our present age merely affords another entry in this dismal register."

Hans F. Sennholz

Trump Tariff Day has arrived, with the Great Man himself at 4 pm Washington time, due to share with the rest of the world, what tariffs will be imposed, on whom, and what the Great Man thinks will be the beneficial results.

I suspect the effect on the global economy will be a repeat of the 1930s global economy, but with masses of rapidly unserviceable corporate, consumer and national debt.

Far from being a masterplan to Make America Great Again, dinosaur Graeme, thinks it more likely to Make Everyone Poor Again.

But first we have to see what the Grate Great Man actually says.

Asia-Pacific markets mixed as Trump administration prepares to roll out fresh tariffs

Updated Wed, Apr 2 2025 12:03 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Wednesday as investors brace for U.S. President Donald Trump to roll out fresh tariffs this week.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 traded 0.10% higher while the Topix declined 0.55%. South Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.30% and the small-cap Kosdaq lost 0.47%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 traded 0.26% higher.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was flat while mainland China’s CSI 300 added 0.15%.

India’s Nifty 50 gained 0.45% at the open.

U.S. stock futures moved higher as Wall Street awaits the expected rollout of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Wednesday.

Overnight in the U.S., the three major averages closed mixed. The S&P 500 added 0.38% to close at 5,633.07 while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.87% and ended at 17,449.89. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 11.80 points, or 0.03%, to settle at 41,989.96

While markets are likely to be volatile in the near term, UBS analysts expect news flow to become “more positive” toward the second half of the year.

“We think investors can use market swings to build long-term exposure. Investors should therefore consider taking advantage of market dips to buy into broad U.S. equities and companies exposed to AI,” the investment bank wrote in a note.

Asia-Pacific markets live: South Korea inflation

Factories Shrink, Treasury Bets Rise on US Uncertainty

April 1, 2025 at 11:16 PM GMT+1

US factory activity contracted in March for the first time this year and prices accelerated sharply for a second month as the drumbeat of higher tariffs reverberated through the economy. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index declined 1.3 points last month to 49, according to data released Tuesday.

Readings below 50 indicate contraction and the figure was slightly weaker than the median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists. At the same time, the group’s price measure increased to the highest since June 2022. Over the past two months, the gauge has increased 14.5 points, the most over a comparable period in four years.

With Donald Trump pledging more tariff turbulence Wednesday and the rest of the world primed to retaliate, options traders are betting Treasuries will extend their rally ahead of any details on the president’s “reciprocal” tariff plans. Evidence that investors are girding for new tariffs is accumulating as the once churning US economy begins to stumble under the weight of Trump-driven uncertainty.

Investors tend to buy Treasuries when they believe growth is going to slow and eventually force the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy. A popular haven in turbulent times, US government bonds have also drawn buyers following weeks of tariff-fueled volatility in stocks and other assets.

The preparation for more economic damage can be seen in everything from big options wagers on lower Treasury yields to expectations of deeper-than-expected cuts from the Fed reflected in interest rate-linked derivatives. Lopsided demand for call options—which are used to bet on higher Treasury prices—is another important indicator. The premium investors are paying for calls relative to put options stands at its highest level since August 2024.

“There is a large group of people in the marketplace that are putting much more emphasis right now on a recession than an inflationary episode without a recession or at least a slowdown,” said Thierry Wizman, global currencies and interest-rate strategist at Macquarie Group.

Factories Shrink, Treasury Bets Rise on Uncertainty: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg

Trump’s tariffs in numbers: The biggest losers amid escalating US trade war

1 April 2925

World leaders are bracing for an escalation in the US trade war with Donald Trump set to unveil a swathe of tariffs on imported goods.

The US president is set to announce a string of fresh tariffs on so-called “Liberation Day” in an effort to increase homegrown production and reduce trade imbalances.

The changes are set to range from levies on countries buying Venezuelan oil to reciprocal tariffs on countries with “unfair taxes” on US goods.

But some countries will be hit harder than others, with a handful already bearing the brunt of Trump’s trade war.

What are the tariffs and who is impacted?

All countries worldwide which trade with the United States are at risk of facing tariffs on Mr Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day”.

The United States imported around $3.3 trillion in goods from abroad last year, and latest reports from the Washington Post claim the White House has drafted tariffs “of around 20 per cent on most imports to the United States”.

As it stands, existing tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada and China, as well as on imported steel and aluminium, plus a new 25 per cent tariff on vehicles and parts., will cover at least $1.4 trillion-worth of goods, according to the Tax Foundation.

But that value of imports hit by taxes will increase with a series of reciprocal tariffs to be announced by Donald Trump in the coming hours, plus levies on Venezuelan oil importers, and possible undefined tariffs on agricultural products from overseas.

“To the Great Farmers of the United States: Get ready to start making a lot of agricultural product to be sold INSIDE of the United States,” Mr Trump announced on Truth Social in early March. “Tariffs will go on external product on April 2nd. Have fun!”

Mr Trump had warned “all countries” will be affected by the looming reciprocal tariffs - although a statement alongside his Presidential Memorandum in February suggested that countries which either have a deficit in trade with the US – meaning that they export more than they import – or place higher tariffs on US products would be targeted.

The memorandum stated that these “unfair” taxes on US goods cost American firms over $2 billion each year.

But as of Tuesday evening, it is still unclear which countries will be hit by the latest round of tariffs, and to what degree, and so economists are unable to estimate the value of trade impacted.

Instead, US treasury secretary Scott Bessent singled out a “top 15 per cent” of countries that trade heavily with the US and impose high tariffs and barriers to imports - but would not name them, or give more detail on what the percentage figure was for.

Another member of Mr Trump’s National Economic Council said that the administration was targeting countries that were in a trade deficit with the US; amounting to a total goods trade deficit of $1.2 trillion in 2024.

Countries that export more to the US than they import include China, the EU, Mexico, Vietnam, Ireland, Germany, Taiwan, South Korea, Canada, India, Thailand, Italy, Switzerland, Malaysia, Indonesia, France, Austria, and Sweden.

The most likely scenario is countries across both groups will be affected, with Trump’s memorandum directly calling out France, Brazil, Canada, India, China, and the EU as a whole.

Despite not being in a trade deficit, the UK may also be affected, with the White House including value-added tax (VAT) in its list of “unfair, discriminatory, or extraterritorial taxes imposed by our trading partners on United States businesses, workers, and consumers”.

UK efforts to negotiate a deal with the US for exemptions continued into Tuesday night.

More

Trump’s tariffs in numbers: The biggest losers amid escalating US trade war

Tariffs will likely raise much less money than White House projects, economists say

Published Tue, Apr 1 2025 4:03 PM EDT

President Donald Trump says that tariffs will make the U.S. “rich.” But those riches will likely be far less than the White House expects, economists said.

The ultimate sum could have big ramifications for the U.S. economy, the nation’s debt and legislative negotiations over a tax-cut package, economists said.

White House trade adviser Peter Navarro on Sunday estimated tariffs would raise about $600 billion a year and $6 trillion over a decade. Auto tariffs would add another $100 billion a year, he said on “Fox News Sunday.”

Navarro made the projection as the U.S. plans to announce more tariffs against U.S. trading partners on Wednesday.

Economists expect the Trump administration’s tariff policy would generate a much lower amount of revenue than Navarro claims. Some project the total revenue would be less than half.

Roughly $600 billion to $700 billion a year “is not even in the realm of possibility,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s. “If you get to $100 billion to $200 billion, you’ll be pretty lucky.”

The White House declined to respond to a request for comment from CNBC about tariff revenue.

The ‘mental math’ behind tariff revenue

There are big question marks over the scope of the tariffs, including details like amount, duration, and products and countries affected — all of which have a significant bearing on the revenue total.

The White House is considering a 20% tariff on most imports, The Washington Post reported on Tuesday. President Trump floated this idea on the campaign trail. The Trump administration may ultimately opt for a different policy, like country-by-country tariffs based on each nation’s respective trade and non-trade barriers.

But a 20% tariff rate seems to align with Navarro’s revenue projections, economists said.

The U.S. imported about $3.3 trillion of goods in 2024. Applying a 20% tariff rate to all these imports would yield about $660 billion of annual revenue.

“That is almost certainly the mental math Peter Navarro is doing — and that mental math skips some crucial steps,” said Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Yale Budget Lab and former chief economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisers during the Biden administration.

That’s because an accurate revenue estimate must account for the many economic impacts of tariffs in the U.S. and around the world, economists said. Those effects combine to reduce revenue, they said.

A 20% broad tariff would raise about $250 billion a year (or $2.5 trillion over a decade) when taking those effects into account, according to Tedeschi, citing a Yale Budget Lab analysis published Monday.  

There are ways to raise larger sums — but they would involve higher tariff rates, economists said. For example, a 50% across-the-board tariff would raise about $780 billion per year, according to economists at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Even that is an optimistic assessment: It doesn’t account for lower U.S. economic growth due to retaliation or the negative growth effects from the tariffs themselves, they wrote.

Why revenue would be lower than expected

Tariffs generally raise prices for consumers. A 20% broad tariff would cost the average consumer $3,400 to $4,200 a year, according to the Yale Budget Lab.

Consumers would naturally buy fewer imported goods if they cost more, economists said. Lower demand means fewer imports and less tariff revenue from those imports, they said.

Tariffs are also expected to trigger “reduced economic activity,” said Robert McClelland, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

For example, U.S. companies that don’t pass tariff costs on to consumers via higher prices would likely see profits suffer (and their income taxes fall), economists said. Consumers might pull back on spending, further denting company profits and tax revenues, economists said. Companies that take a financial hit might lay off workers, they said.

Foreign nations are also expected to retaliate with their own tariffs on U.S. products, which would hurt companies that export products abroad. Other nations may experience an economic downturn, further reducing demand for U.S. products.

“If you get a 20% tariff rate, you’re going to get a rip-roaring recession, and that will undermine your fiscal situation,” Zandi said.

There’s also likely to be a certain level of non-compliance with tariff policy, and carve-outs for certain countries, industries or products, economists said. For instance, when the White House levied tariffs on China in February, it indefinitely exempted “de minimis” imports valued at $800 or less.

More

Tariffs may raise much less than White House projects, economists say

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Food inflation in UK continues to edge up in March

Tue, 01st Apr 2025 01:00

(Alliance News) - Food inflation continued to edge up in March, despite retailers doing "all they can" to avert pressures bearing down on the industry, figures show.

Food prices overall are now 2.4% higher than last March, up from 2.1% in February and above the three-month average of 2%, according to the British Retail Consortium-NIQ shop price index.

Ambient food inflation saw the biggest increase, to 3.7% from February's 2.8%, with alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages both recording price increases because of duty changes and the hangover from high global sugar prices.

Fresh food prices are 1.4% higher than a year ago, a slight dip from February's 1.5%.

Shop prices overall are 0.4% cheaper than last March, a slowing on last month's 0.7% decline, driven by clothing and footwear falling into double digit deflation as a result of weak consumer demand.

BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said: "Retailers continue to do all they can to protect customers from the cost pressures bearing down on the industry.

"Prices fell for most non-food categories, which kept year-on-year overall shop prices in deflation, but at a reduced rate compared to February.

"With retailers bracing for significant extra costs which kick in later this week as a result of the Budget, inflation will likely accelerate in the coming months.

"Along with new packaging taxes later this year, retailers will be shouldering an additional GBP7 billion in costs. It is crucial that the Employment Rights Bill and business rates reform don't further inflate costs and increase red tape."

Mike Watkins, head of retailer and business insight at NielsenIQ, said: "There is competition on the high street as retailers look to pull in reluctant shoppers with seasonal promotions.

"However, with upwards pressure on prices, retailers may also need some focused price cuts to help footfall in the run up to the late Easter."

Food inflation in UK continues to edge up in March | Financial News

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

Study estimates current Moderna vaccine 53% effective against COVID hospitalization

Stephanie Soucheray, MA  March 31, 2025

A preprint study posted late last week on the server medRxiv reveals that the current Moderna COVID-19 vaccine is 53% effective against COVID-19–related hospitalization and 39% protective against medically attended COVID-19 over a median follow-up period of 57 days.

The study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, evaluated the effectiveness of Moderna's updated vaccine targeting the KP.2 variant at preventing hospitalizations and medically attended COVID-19 illness. Outcomes among recipients of the vaccine were compared to people who did not receive any 2024-25 COVID vaccine.

The retrospective matched cohort study used electronic health records to determine vaccinations from August 23, 2024, through December 24, 2024, and with follow-up through December 31, 2024. Overall, 465,073 KP.2 vaccine recipients were matched 1:1 to unexposed adults.

---- Lower protection in those with underlying conditions

Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was 52.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 34.8% to 65.8%) against COVID-19–related hospitalization, and 39.4% (95% CI; 35.0% to 43.5%) against medically attended COVID-19 over a median follow-up of 57 days.

Adjusted VE against COVID-19–related hospitalization was 53.1% for adults 50 years old or older, 53.2% among adults 65 years old or older, and 46.5% among adults with at least one underlying medical condition. Adjusted VE against medically attended COVID-19 was 41.2% for adults ages 50 years old and older, 46.7% among those 65 years old or older, and 40.4% among adults with at least one underlying medical condition.

More

Study estimates current Moderna vaccine 53% effective against COVID hospitalization | CIDRAP

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Sodium-iron battery startup to challenge Li-ion for extended storage

By Abhimanyu Ghoshal  March 31, 2025

We've long relied on lithium-ion batteries for long-term energy storage, but they can be expensive to produce and maintain over the years. California-based startup Inlyte wants to offer a scalable alternative with its sodium-iron battery tech, and it'll soon manufacture cells to showcase its benefits.

The idea behind sodium-iron batteries has been around for decades. Beta Research, an outfit in the UK, pioneered this technology back in the 1970s for use in electric vehicles, but it didn't take off – and lithium-ion took the lead instead. Several years later, Stanford graduate Antonio Baclig chose to run with sodium metal halide battery designs in his effort to create a utility-grade energy storage solution, and launched his own firm to commercialize it.

Inlyte looked at Beta Research's work developing this tech and acquired the latter's team and facilities. In 2023, the startup raised US$8 million in seed funding to pursue its ambitions. Now, it's inked a deal with Horien Salt Battery Solutions to scale up production of sodium-iron batteries at a facility in the US, and bring these long-duration storage batteries to market.

The big draw of sodium-iron batteries is in the name: they're made of two highly abundant materials, which means they could cost as little as $35 per kWh when manufactured at scale. That's a fraction of what you'd pay for lithium-ion batteries, which are around $139 per kWh.

Sodium-iron batteries are also durable, can operate and be safely shipped in any climate, pose low fire risks, and promise between 6-24 hours of energy storage. In comparison, lithium-ion storage batteries generally offer about 4 hours of storage duration.

Inlyte has also demonstrated its cells managing over 700 cycles with no loss in energy capacity, and claims a battery life of at least 7,000 cycles, or 20 years. That could give lithium-ion-based storage options like Tesla's Megapack a run for their money.

By partnering with Horien, Inlyte hopes to throw open the doors to its first US-based battery factory by 2027. The company has already been testing its tech at a pilot plant in the UK; manufacturing in the US with Horien's expertise could accelerate its ambition to commercialize its cells and sign up customers in the near future.

Source: Inlyte via PR Newswire

Sodium-iron battery startup to challenge Li-ion for extended storage

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

“The problem with fiat money is that it rewards the minority that can handle money, but fools the generation that has worked and saved money.”

“Adam Smith” aka George Goodman.

Germany’s Gold. EU Retaliation Nears. Biden’s War On Russia, NYT.

Baltic Dry Index. 1598 -04          Brent Crude 74.94

Spot Gold 3145               US 2 Year Yield 3.89  unch.  

US Federal Debt. 36.668 trillion!!

Of all the mysteries of the stock exchange there is none so impenetrable as why there should be a buyer for everyone who seeks to sell.

John Kenneth Galbraith

It is April Fools Day, will the stock casinos today make fools of the buyers or the sellers?

Today’s stock casinos action might not matter much anyway, depending on what happens on Trump’s “Liberation Day” tomorrow.

The days after tomorrow don’t look to good either.

Brussels is considering the possibility of using a full arsenal of measures, including restricting the access of American companies to the European market and public tenders. This was reported by a source of El País in the EU.

Then there is Friday’s US March jobs report, where for the first time, the DOGE layoffs and cutbacks might start to show up in the figures although that’s more likely to happen in the April jobs report.

All in all, a good time to join Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway in sitting out events in cash.

Look away from that soaring gold price and rising crude oil price now.

Asia-Pacific markets rise after key Wall Street indexes gain overnight

Updated Tue, Apr 1 2025 12:14 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets climbed Tuesday, after two key Wall Street benchmarks rose as investors awaited clarity on U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff rollout.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.91%, after the Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates at 4.1%, in line with expectations, as the country heads to the polls on May 3.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 pared earlier gains to trade flat, while the broader Topix index was up 0.12% in choppy trade.

Japanese markets fell into correction territory in the previous session, with the Nikkei 225 falling 4.05% to end the day at a six-month low.

The Kospi index advanced 1.66% while the small-cap Kosdaq surged 2.88%.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 was up 0.29% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index increased 1.06%.

China’s Caixin PMI for March came in at 51.2, compared to the 51.1 reading penciled by economists in Reuters’ poll, and slightly higher than the 50.8 reading in the previous month.

India’s benchmark Nifty 50 rose 0.1% in choppy trade at the open while the broader BSE Sensex dropped 0.42%.

U.S. futures slipped as investors awaited clarity on Trump’s upcoming tariff plans.

Overnight, two of the three key benchmark indexes on Wall Street ended the session in positive territory.

The S&P 500 clawed back earlier losses on to end the session higher. The broad market index added 0.55% to close at 5,611.85. At one point, it fell as much as 1.65% and traded 10% below its record.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.14% and closed at 17,299.29. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 417.86 points, or 1%, to settle at 42,001.76.

Asia markets live: Stocks rise

U.S. stock futures slip as investors await clarity on Trump’s upcoming tariffs: Live updates

Updated Tue, Apr 1 2025 12:23 AM EDT

U.S. stock futures slipped on Tuesday morning as the market awaited clarity from President Donald Trump regarding his tariff policy rollout.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 112 points, or 0.27%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.36% and 0.41%, respectively.

On Monday, the S&P 500 and the blue-chip Dow posted gains for the session. The broad market index added 0.55% on Monday, while the 30-stock Dow jumped 1%. The Nasdaq Composite slid 0.14% for the session.

Stocks were shaken in the first quarter of 2025 by mounting uncertainty around the new Trump administration’s economic tariffs. As recently as Sunday, Trump said that his “reciprocal tariffs” plan would “start with all countries.” Investors had been hoping for a narrow approach toward administering the levies.

Traders will likely receive further insight into the situation on Wednesday, April 2 — when many of Trump’s duties are slated to go into effect.

Stocks ended the first quarter with losses, as the S&P 500 posted a 4.6% decline and the Nasdaq dropped more than 10% in the period — the worst quarterly decline for both indexes since 2022. However, the future may be brighter heading into the second quarter, especially given the S&P 500′s rebound during Monday’s session, according to Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

“We saw the retest today; we might get a little bit of a bounce here. We want to buy while we’ve got a pullback,” he said Monday on CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime.” Consider that the broad market index at one point traded 10% below its record high on Monday, but ultimately made a comeback from the drop.

“We’re expecting some broadening out in both earnings and just stock performance this year,” Wren said. “We don’t think it’s going to be another year where you’ve got a handful of stocks leading the charge.”

On Tuesday, traders will watch out for March’s manufacturing data alongside February’s job openings and construction spending reports.

Stock market today: Live updates

U.S. Stocks Post Worst Quarter Since 2022 on Threat of Trade War

Tariff uncertainty and a flagging tech trade drag the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lower to start 2025

Updated March 31, 2025 4:37 pm ET

Worries about tariffs and the economy sent the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to their worst quarters since 2022, a setback that is pushing some investors overseas. 

The Trump administration’s whipsaw rollout of a tariff fight with America’s biggest trading partners has analysts trimming forecasts for economic growth and lifting estimates for inflation. The tech trade that carried indexes to new highs is fizzling. Investors big and small have been shifting bets to Europe—where new spending plans could jolt a lethargic economy—and beyond. 

Monday’s action highlighted the volatility pummeling markets in recent weeks. U.S. stocks opened sharply lower following a global selloff overnight, before an afternoon rally carried the broad index to its largest intraday recovery in more than two years. 

----The S&P 500 is struggling to claw its way out of a correction after falling 10% from its February record. The tumultuous quarter has left the U.S. stock benchmark down 4.6%, far behind the gains of indexes overseas. The dollar has weakened, leaving investors wondering if the pullback from investing in U.S. assets heralds the start of a long-term regime.

It is a far cry from the end of 2024, when the S&P 500 capped a second consecutive year of more than 20% gains. Cooling inflation had allowed the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates three times in a row. Election Day victories by President Trump and congressional Republicans seemed to presage tax cuts, deregulation and boom times ahead.

Few money managers are ready to proclaim an age of European dominance. But some are considering the possibility that years of middling results from the continent’s stock markets could give way to sustained strong performance.

While European stocks have long been cheaper than U.S. shares relative to companies’ earnings, the continent’s sluggish economy and less tech-oriented market had turned off many investors. 

Now, with the U.S. warning Europe not to take its military protection for granted, Germany and other countries have announced major increases in defense spending that some economists think could jump-start the region’s economy. 

Investors are rushing to get in on the action. The Stoxx Europe 600 index has outpaced the S&P 500 by 9.8 percentage points so far this year, its largest quarterly lead since the start of 2015, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Among defense stocks in Europe, Rheinmetall in Germany has more than doubled while Thales in France has climbed 77%.

More

U.S. Stocks Post Worst Quarter Since 2022 on Threat of Trade War - WSJ

Next, where’s the gold? More specifically, where’s Germany’s gold? Is the trade war about to turn nasty?

German Conservatives Raise Alarm Over $113 Billion in Gold Held in New York

31 March 2025

For decades, Germany’s gold reserves stored in the United States have been considered a pillar of postwar financial stability. But with over €100 billion in bullions still sitting in the vaults of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, that confidence is starting to crack.

As reported by Digi24, conservative lawmakers in Berlin have renewed calls for greater scrutiny—and even repatriation—of the 1,236 metric tons of gold Germany holds in the U.S., as political instability and executive overreach under President Donald Trump stir fears about future access to the reserves.

Shadow of Trump fuels anxiety

Germany maintains the second-largest gold reserve in the world, with 37% of it still abroad in New York. That arrangement, once considered prudent for international liquidity and monetary security, is now seen as potentially risky in a shifting political climate.

“Of course, the question arises again now,” said CDU lawmaker Marco Wanderwitz, who first requested an inspection of the vaults back in 2012. Fellow CDU member Markus Ferber echoed that concern, urging Bundesbank officials to personally inspect and document the bullion.

Recent speculation about Trump’s willingness to override traditional legal boundaries—combined with remarks from his key adviser Elon Musk demanding audits of U.S. gold reserves—have only added fuel to the fire

Bundesbank reassures, but memories linger

Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel attempted to calm concerns in February, telling reporters, “We have a trustworthy partner in the New York Fed… It doesn’t keep me up at night.” Yet the issue is far from new. A similar wave of concern in 2013, sparked by populist pressure, led Germany to repatriate gold held in Paris.

Currently, more than half of Germany’s gold is stored domestically in Frankfurt, with smaller portions kept in London and New York. But as fears over Trump-era unpredictability grow, so too does public and political pressure for the Bundesbank to consider bringing the rest home.

German Conservatives Raise Alarm Over $113 Billion in Gold Held in New York

EU Commission may close European market for US goods - El País

31 March 2025

The EU is preparing a response to the US duties. Brussels is considering a complete market closure for American goods, El País reports.

The European Union is preparing to retaliate against the introduction of new duties by the Donald Trump administration, which will come into force on April 2.

Brussels is considering the possibility of using a full arsenal of measures, including restricting the access of American companies to the European market and public tenders. This was reported by a source of El País in the EU.

The new US customs tariffs, which Trump calls "reciprocal," could seriously affect trade relations between the two sides of the Atlantic.

According to the US administration, the annual volume of imports and exports between the US and the EU reaches 900 billion euros, with a trade balance of 235.5 billion euros in favor of Europe.

In response, the European Commission is considering tough measures, including imposing tariffs on American goods, restricting access to European financial markets, and even banning American companies from participating in EU-funded projects.

At the same time, European capitals, including France, Italy, and Ireland, are calling for a cautious approach to avoid a full-blown trade war.

Despite the escalating situation, Brussels continues to try to negotiate with Washington. The EU is even offering some concessions, including lower duties on industrial goods and increased purchases of American liquefied natural gas.

However, if the US does not abandon the new customs restrictions, Europe is ready to act without red lines.

Europe's reaction

During his recent visit to the United States, French President Emmanuel Macron advised his American counterpart, Donald Trump, not to start a trade war with Europe. Instead, he urged him to focus on China.

The French President also made it clear to Trump that Europe would not be able to increase defense spending, as demanded by the United States, in the event of a trade war.

In addition, the EU promised to respond to Trump in the event of a trade war. For several months, the EU has been working on a set of potential retaliatory measures in case Trump imposes tariffs, although the details of the list were closely guarded. Afterward, an EU spokesperson said the bloc would react strongly if Trump imposed tariffs.

Kaja Kallas, the EU's foreign policy chief, says that if the United States and Europe start a trade war, it will be China that will be laughing.

EU Commission may close European market for US goods - El País

In other news.

South Korea, China, Japan agree to promote regional trade as Trump tariffs loom

Published Sun, Mar 30 2025 3:23 AM EDT

South Korea, China and Japan held their first economic dialogue in five years on Sunday, seeking to facilitate regional trade as the three Asian export powers brace from U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

The countries’ three trade ministers agreed to “closely cooperate for a comprehensive and high-level” talks on a South Korea-Japan-China free trade agreement deal to promote “regional and global trade”, according to a statement released after the meeting.

“It is necessary to strengthen the implementation of RCEP, in which all three countries have participated, and to create a framework for expanding trade cooperation among the three countries through Korea-China-Japan FTA negotiations,” said South Korean Trade Minister Ahn Duk-geun, referring to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.

The ministers met ahead of Trump’s announcement on Wednesday of more tariffs in what he calls “liberation day”, as he upends Washington’s trading partnerships.

Seoul, Beijing and Tokyo are major U.S. major trading partners, although they have been at loggerheads among themselves over issues including territorial disputes and Japan’s release of wastewater from the wrecked Fukushima nuclear power plant.

They have not made substantial progress on a trilateral free-trade deal since starting talks in 2012.

RCEP, which went into force in 2022, is a trade framework among 15 Asia-Pacific countries aimed at lowering trade barriers.

Trump announced 25% import tariffs on cars and auto parts last week, a move that may hurt companies, especially Asian automakers, which are among the largest vehicle exporters to the U.S.

After Mexico, South Korea is the world’s largest exporter of vehicles to the United States, followed by Japan, according to data from S&P.

The ministers agreed to hold their next ministerial meeting in Japan.

South Korea, China, Japan to promote regional trade as tariffs loom

Key Takeaways From NYT's Secret History Detailing US 'Shocking' Involvement In Ukraine War

Sunday, Mar 30, 2025 - 09:55 PM

It is years too late and alternative and independent media had already done so much work on exposing the reality, including 600+ page books which have been published, but the New York Times on Sunday is out with a lengthy report on The Partnership: The Secret History of America’s Role in the Ukraine War.

Up until very recently, mainstream media gatekeepers wouldn't so much as admit that a proxy war has been unfolding from the very start of the conflict in Ukraine. This even after the so-called paper of record had earlier in Feb. 2024 acknowledged that the CIA had built 12 "secret spy bases" in Ukraine to wage a shadow war against Russia going back to 2014. 

Again, it comes much too belatedly, but now with Ukrainian forces clearly losing the fight, the Times admits that the prior Biden administration was far more involved in being embedded on a military and intelligence level with Ukraine than was previously made public by official sources.

The report is a deep dive into the "extraordinary partnership of intelligence, strategy, planning and technology" that became Zelensky's "secret weapon" in countering Russia. It begins by describing that within two months of Putin sending his army across the border, Ukrainian generals in civilians clothes were being secretly whisked away for high-level war planning sessions at US bases in Germany.

"The passengers were top Ukrainian generals," NY Times describes of men taken by a convoy of unmarked cars from the Ukrainian capital to Western Europe. "Their destination was Clay Kaserne, the headquarters of U.S. Army Europe and Africa in Wiesbaden, Germany. Their mission was to help forge what would become one of the most closely guarded secrets of the war in Ukraine."

The report makes clear that US commanders were much more inter-woven into Ukrainian operations than known, to the point of 'shocking' some NATO allies. In essence many counter-Russia operations happening on Ukraine's battlefields were simply run from the base in Germany. 

"But a New York Times investigation reveals that America was woven into the war far more intimately and broadly than previously understood," the report continues. "At critical moments, the partnership was the backbone of Ukrainian military operations that, by U.S. counts, have killed or wounded more than 700,000 Russian soldiers. (Ukraine has put its casualty toll at 435,000.) Side by side in Wiesbaden’s mission command center, American and Ukrainian officers planned Kyiv’s counteroffensives. A vast American intelligence-collection effort both guided big-picture battle strategy and funneled precise targeting information down to Ukrainian soldiers in the field."

Notably, this is essentially US officials and the NY Times also admitting that the Kremlin has all along been right when it insisted this was never really simply about Moscow vs. Kiev - but that NATO countries have militarized Ukraine and weaponized it against Russia. President Putin and Kremlin officials have been fiercely complaining about US intervention all along, but this was dismissed in the West as merely 'propaganda'.

Below are some key excerpts from the very lengthy NY Times report, with subheadings and emphasis by ZeroHedge...

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Key Takeaways From NYT's Secret History Detailing US 'Shocking' Involvement In Ukraine War | ZeroHedge

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

US consumer spending rises in February, but falls short of expectations

31 March 2025 

Consumer spending in the United States rose in February but fell short of economists’ expectations, as households cut back on dining and travel while grappling with rising costs and economic uncertainty.

Figures released by the US Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that consumer spending climbed by 0.4 per cent last month. This followed a downwardly revised 0.3 per cent decline in January and was slightly below economists’ expectations of a 0.5 per cent rebound.

The data suggests that American households remain cautious about non-essential purchases. Spending on restaurants, hotels and motels dropped sharply by 15 per cent, while expenditure at non-profit institutions also slumped by 15.8 per cent — likely impacted by federal funding cuts as President Trump moves to shrink government spending.

However, the overall picture was supported by stronger sales of durable goods, including motor vehicles, furniture, and household equipment. Non-durable goods such as food and beverages also saw a modest rise, while services spending edged up 0.2 per cent.

The weaker-than-expected rebound in spending comes amid mounting pressure on US households from rising prices and concerns over the economic outlook. Economists are increasingly warning that a series of tariffs imposed by President Trump could push inflation higher, particularly on imported goods.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that inflation had begun to rise, “partly in response to tariffs,” and warned that further progress towards the central bank’s 2 per cent inflation target could be delayed.

In the 12 months to February, core inflation — which excludes food and energy — rose to 2.8 per cent, up from 2.7 per cent in January.

The Fed, which tracks the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index as its preferred inflation measure, left interest rates unchanged last week, maintaining its benchmark range between 4.25 and 4.50 per cent. Financial markets currently expect the Fed to resume rate cuts in June, but analysts are growing more sceptical.

Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics, said the spending figures support the view that the Fed may hold off on rate cuts this year. “Admittedly, officials are likely to be concerned by the evidence of slower consumer spending growth, but we suspect that is partly due to the unseasonably severe winter weather,” he said.

With inflation still running hot and consumer sentiment fragile, policymakers will be watching closely for signs that demand is cooling — or whether further interest rate adjustments may be needed to keep inflation in check while supporting household spending.

US consumer spending rises in February, but falls short of expectations

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Factbox-Airlines that have updated their lithium battery policies

31 March 2025

SEOUL (Reuters) -Several airlines have updated their guidance on carrying lithium batteries onboard. The batteries are in devices such as cellphones and e-cigarettes, and can malfunction to produce smoke, fire or extreme heat.

In 2024, three incidents of overheating lithium batteries on planes were recorded globally every two weeks by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, compared to just under one a week in 2018.

Aviation has long recognised the batteries as a safety concern, and rules are periodically tightened in response to accidents. 

AIRLINES IN SOUTH KOREA

In January, an Air Busan plane was consumed by flames while preparing to depart South Korea. Investigators have not issued a final report into the cause of the fire, but the transport ministry said on March 14 that a power bank was the possible cause.

Air Busan was the first to change its policies to disallow power banks in overhead cabin bins, saying passengers should keep them on their person, to more easily spot any problems. 

From March 1, South Korea tightened rules for all South Korean airlines, including keeping power banks and e-cigarettes with passengers and not in luggage bins, and not charging devices onboard.   

AIRLINES IN HONG KONG

Hong Kong's aviation regulator said local airlines from April 7 must not allow passengers to use or charge power banks during flights, and they must not be stored in overhead lockers.

On March 20, a Hong Kong Airlines flight departing China was forced to divert due to a "suspected hand carry baggage fire" in an overhead compartment.

Hong Kong's Civil Aviation Department said on March 24 it was "highly concerned about recent safety incidents suspected to have been caused by passengers carrying and using lithium battery power banks (power banks) on aircraft".

Hong Kong-based carrier Cathay Pacific said it would implement the new regulations, adding that it recognised the importance of continuous improvement in aviation safety. The airline had earlier told Reuters it would not change its guidelines out of concern it would be hard to enforce and "may lead to negative unintended consequences".

AIRASIA

AirAsia, a budget airline owned by Malaysia's Capital A, said it will ban the use and charging of power banks on flights from April 1. Power banks must also be stored in the seat pocket or under the seat, and not in overhead compartments.

"These measures align with global aviation safety standards to reduce the risk of battery-related incidents during flights," the airline said.

AIR ASTANA

Kazakhstan's Air Astana from March 13 prohibited charging or using power banks during flights and said lithium batteries, external batteries and e-cigarettes must be kept in hand luggage and placed on the luggage racks.

BATIK AIR

From March 14 passengers on Indonesia's Batik Air, part of the Lion Air Group, may not use power banks in flight. Two power banks may be carried on their person and not in overhead cabins.

"Passengers are also advised to exercise caution when carrying auto-magnet charge power banks, as these may pose additional risks," the airline said.     

CHINA

China's aviation regulator has said from at least 2014 that passengers should not charge devices using power banks during flight. 

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Factbox-Airlines that have updated their lithium battery policies

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

The economic repercussions of a stock market crash depend less on the severity of the crash itself than on the response of economic policymakers, particularly central bankers.

Ben Bernanke