Saturday, 5 April 2025

Special Update 05/04/2025 A Great Lack of Trust. Canada’s Tariffs.

Baltic Dry Index. 1489 -51            Brent Crude 65.58

Spot Gold 3038                  U S 2 Year Yield 3.68 -0.03

US Federal Debt. 36.684 trillion.

“Tariffs give us great power to negotiate.”

President Trump, April 3, 2025.

United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement

---- All sides came to a formal agreement on 1 October 2018,[12] and U.S. president Donald Trump proposed USMCA during the G20 Summit the following month, where it was signed by him, Mexican president Enrique Peña Nieto, and Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau. A revised version reflecting additional consultations was signed on December 10, 2019, and ratified by all three countries, with Canada being the last to ratify on March 13, 2020. Following notification by all three governments that the provisions were ready for domestic implementation, the agreement came into effect on 1 July 2020.

---- The USMCA contains a provision for review and adjustment in 2026.

United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement - Wikipedia

Revoked by President Trump February 1, 2025. But who would now trust President Trump to uphold any “negotiated” deal? See the Canada Tariffs YouTube below.

By some estimates, the US stock casinos alone have lost some 6 trillion dollars of value in just the last two days.

Add in Asian and European stock casino losses of about the same and the reverse wealth effect this week is fast approaching 13 plus trillion dollars in just the last two days. Add in commodity market losses and that reverse wealth figure is probably close to 15 trillion dollars.

While some of this reverse wealth effect will show up in private equity groups, the real hit is being taken in insurance companies and pension providers.

Much later it will show up in reduced capital gains taxes, but short term it’s most likely to show up in a very worrying decline in consumer spending.

With US 10 percent minimum import tariffs starting today, it will also very soon show up in rising US inflation figures.

We open with China retaliating rather than negotiating.

China to impose 34% retaliatory tariff on all goods imported from the U.S.

Published Fri, Apr 4 2025 6:22 AM EDT

China’s finance ministry on Friday said it will impose a 34% tariff on all goods imported from the U.S. starting on April 10, following duties imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration earlier this week.

“China urges the United States to immediately cancel its unilateral tariff measures and resolve trade differences through consultation in an equal, respectful and mutually beneficial manner,” the ministry said, according to a Google translation.

It further criticized Washington’s decision to impose 34% of additional reciprocal levies on China — bringing total U.S. tariffs against the country to 54% — as “inconsistent with international trade rules” and “seriously” undermining Chinese interests, as well as endangering “global economic development and the stability of the production and supply chain,” according to a Google-translated report from Chinese state news outlet Xinhua.

Separately, China also added 11 U.S. firms to the “unreliable entities list” that the Beijing administration says have violated market rules or contractual commitments. China’s ministry of commerce also added 16 U.S. entities to its export control list and said it would implement export controls on seven types of rare-earth related items, including samarium, gadolinium and terbium.

CNBC has reached out to the White House for comment.

More

China to impose 34% retaliatory tariff on all goods imported from the U.S.

Dow drops 2,200 points Friday, S&P 500 loses 10% in 2 days as Trump's tariff rout deepens: Live updates

Updated Fri, Apr 4 2025 5:14 PM EDT

The stock market was pounded for a second day Friday after China retaliated with new tariffs on U.S. goods, sparking fears President Donald Trump has ignited a global trade war that will lead to a recession.

Here’s a tally of the stock market damage:

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2,231.07 points, or 5.5%, to 38,314.86 on Friday, the biggest decline since June 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic. This follows a 1,679-point decline on Thursday and marks the first time ever that it has shed more than 1,500 points on back-to-back days.
  • The S&P 500 nosedived 5.97% to 5,074.08, the biggest decline since March 2020. The benchmark shed 4.84% on Thursday and is now off more than 17% off its recent high.
  • The Nasdaq Composite, home to many tech companies that sell to China and manufacture there as well, dropped 5.8%, to 15,587.79. This follows a nearly 6% drop on Thursday and takes the index down by 22% from its December record, a bear market in Wall Street terminology.
  • The selling was broad with only 14 members of the S&P 500 higher on the day. Major market indexes closed at their lows of the session.

China’s commerce ministry said Friday the country will impose a 34% levy on all U.S. products, disappointing investors who had hoped countries would negotiate with Trump before retaliating.

Technology stocks led the bleeding Friday. Shares of iPhone maker Apple slumped 7%, bringing its loss for the week to 13%. Artificial intelligence bellwether Nvidia pulled back 7% during the session, while Tesla fell 10%. All three companies have large exposure to China and are among the hardest hit from Beijing’s retaliatory duties.

Outside of tech, Boeing and Caterpillar — big exporters to China — led the Dow lower, falling 9% and nearly 6%, respectively.

“The bull market is dead, and it was destroyed by ideologues and self-inflicted wounds,” said Emily Bowersock Hill, CEO and founding partner at Bowersock Capital Partners. “While the market may be close to the bottom in the short-term, we are concerned about the impact of a global trade-war on long-term economic growth.”

China’s efforts to respond to Trump’s tariffs extended beyond reciprocal duties of their own. Beijing added several companies to its so-called “unreliable entities list,” which asserts that the firms have broken market rules or contractual commitments. In addition, China opened an antitrust investigation into DuPont on Friday, sinking shares nearly 13%.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell back below 4% Friday as investors flooded into bonds for safety, pushing prices up and rates lower. The CBOE Volatility index, Wall Street’s fear gauge surged above 40, an extreme level seen only during rapid market declines.

Trump appeared to be steadfast in the face of the markets backlash to his tariff blitz announced Wednesday evening, posting on Truth Social Friday that his “policies will never change.”

“The fear now as we go into the weekend [is] the trade war escalates, and the US doesn’t back down,” said Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets.

All told, the S&P 500 dropped 9% on the week, its worst week since the breakout of Covid in early 2020.

Stock market today: Live updates

Nasdaq tumbles to join Russell 2000 in bear market. Here’s what history says will happen next.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average enters correction territory, and the S&P 500 teeters on the edge of a bear market

Last Updated: April 4, 2025 at 4:42 p.m. ET
First Published: April 4, 2025 at 3:43 p.m. ET

The stock-market selloff picked up steam on Friday, pushing the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite into bear-market territory amid fears that President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs have ignited a trade war that will lead to a global economic slowdown.

The Nasdaq Composite  on Friday fell 962.82 points, or 5.8%, to end at 15,587.79. The index has now officially entered a bear market for the first time since 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data. 

A bear market is widely defined as a decline of at least 20% from a recent high.

Investors now want to know how long the tech-heavy index could suffer in a bear market and, perhaps more importantly, how technology stocks have tended to perform in periods after the Nasdaq closed in such negative territory. 

Since 1973, bear markets have typically lasted 111 trading days, or over five months, for the Nasdaq Composite. The last time the index was in a bear market was when it fell over 22% from Aug. 15, 2022 to its low on Dec. 28 of that year, according to Dow Jones Market Data. 

History also shows that, going back to 1973, tech stocks have typically risen in the first month after the Nasdaq entered a bear market, with the index delivering an average return of 1.3% after 30 days and 7.1% over the following three months, according to Dow Jones Market Data (see table below).

----U.S. stocks on Friday sank in another brutal day on Wall Street, after China said the country will impose a 34% levy on all U.S. imports, matching the tariff on Chinese goods coming into the U.S. slapped by President Trump earlier this week. Investors worry the move could worsen trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies and raise the probability of a global recession.

Even a solid jobs report on Friday morning failed to reassure markets, as it sent mixed signals about the economy. The nonfarm-payrolls data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the U.S. economy added a stronger-than-expected 228,000 jobs last month, a significant increase from February’s revised gains of 117,000. The unemployment rate in March ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%.

Nasdaq tumbles to join Russell 2000 in bear market. Here’s what history says will happen next. - MarketWatch

U.S. stocks see biggest 2-day wipeout in history as market loses $11 trillion since Inauguration Day

Stocks erased a combined $6.6 trillion in value on Thursday and Friday

Last Updated: April 4, 2025 at 4:49 p.m. ET
First Published: April 4, 2025 at 12:30 p.m. ET

Roughly $11.1 trillion has been wiped away from the U.S. stock market since Jan. 17, the Friday before President Donald Trump took the oath of office and began his second term, according to data from Dow Jones Market Data.

Some $6.6 trillion of that figure was lost on Thursday and Friday alone — the largest two-day wipeout of shareholder value on record, Dow Jones data showed.

More, subscription required.

U.S. stocks see biggest 2-day wipeout in history as market loses $11 trillion since Inauguration Day - MarketWatch

In other news.

J.P.Morgan lifts global recession odds to 60% as US tariffs stoke fears

By Reuters April 4, 20257:37 AM GMT+1

April 4 (Reuters) - The risk of a U.S. and global recession this year have risen to 60% from 40% earlier on the heels of President Donald Trump's sweeping reciprocal tariffs, Wall Street brokerage J.P. Morgan said.

On Wednesday, Trump imposed a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the U.S. and higher duties on dozens of other countries.

"Disruptive US policies has been recognized as the biggest risk to the global outlook all year," J.P. Morgan strategists, led by Bruce Kasman, said in a note on Thursday, adding that US trade policy has turned less business-friendly than anticipated.

"The effect of this tax hike is likely to be magnified through retaliation, a slide in US business sentiment, and supply chain disruptions," Kasman said.

Other Wall Street brokerages, including Barclays and Deutsche Bank, also warned that the U.S. economy faces a higher risk of slipping into a recession this year if Trump's new levies remain in place.

However, Kasman expects the shock of the tariffs to be "modestly dampened" by the prospect of further rate cuts in the U.S.

J.P.Morgan reiterated its forecast of two 25-basis point rate reductions by the Federal Reserve in June and September this year, while investors expect a total of four rate cuts in 2025, per data compiled by LSEG.

J.P.Morgan lifts global recession odds to 60% as US tariffs stoke fears | Reuters

Goldman cuts oil price forecasts amid tariff fears, higher OPEC+ supply

April 4, 20256:01 AM GMT+1

April 4 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for Brent crude's average price this year by 5.5% to $69 a barrel and for WTI prices by 4.3% to $66, citing the risks of higher OPEC+ supply and the global trade war triggering a recession.

The Wall Street brokerage also chopped its 2026 average price forecast for Brent by 9% to $62 and for WTI by 6.3% to $59, and warned that the new estimates could be lowered further.

"The risks to our reduced oil price forecast are to the downside, especially for 2026, given growing risks of recession and to a lesser extent of higher OPEC+ supply," Goldman analysts said in a note.

Brent crude was priced at $69.59 a barrel as of 0408 GMT on Friday, while WTI was at $66.39.

Crude prices posted their biggest percentage drops since 2022 on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump slapped reciprocal tariffs on many countries and eight OPEC+ members unexpectedly advanced their plan to phase out production cuts by boosting output in May.

The latter, said Goldman, showed OPEC's flexibility to rapidly implement large output hikes, which diminished the likelihood of a price boost in the short term from lower supply.

The brokerage said it now expects oil demand to grow by only 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year, down from its previous forecast of 900,000 bpd, and to increase by 700,000 bpd in 2026.

Goldman cuts oil price forecasts amid tariff fears, higher OPEC+ supply | Reuters

“I think it’s going very well.”

President Trump, April 3, 2025.

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.        

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation/recession now needs an entire section of its own.

El-Erian says U.S. recession risks are now ‘uncomfortably high’

Published Fri, Apr 4 2025 3:23 AM EDT

President Donald Trump’s extensive raft of import tariffs are putting the U.S. economy at risk of recession, Allianz’s Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian warned on Friday.

He added that Trump’s swathe of so-called reciprocal tariffs could have a significant effect on the global economy.

“You’ve had a major repricing of growth prospects, with a recession in the U.S. going up to 50% probability, you’ve seen an increase in inflation expectations, up to 3.5%,” he told CNBC’s Silvia Amaro on the sidelines of the Ambrosetti Forum in Cernobbio, Italy.

“I don’t think [a U.S. recession] is inevitable because the structure of the economy is so strong, but the risk has become uncomfortably high.”

El-Erian also warned that markets were underestimating the inflation impact of the tariffs regime.

“The first reaction has been concerns about growth. We haven’t had two other reactions yet: what will happen to growth in other countries, and that makes a question mark on whether the dollar weakness will continue, and then what does the [Federal Reserve] do?” he questioned.

“I think if we’re lucky we’ll get one rate cut, not four, and it wouldn’t surprise me if we get none,” El-Erian added.

“If it’s a normal Fed — and I say this qualification with a lot of emphasis, because this has not been a normal Fed — we would unlikely to get even one rate cut.”

Liberation day: Mohamed El-Erian says Trump tariffs risk US recession

With tariff details in hand, Fed now has to weigh inflation risks against blow to growth

3 April 2025

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. Federal Reserve officials who've said they needed more details before estimating the economic impact of President Donald Trump's trade plans got perhaps more than they bargained for on Wednesday when he unveiled sweeping tariffs analysts say could dramatically reshuffle the country's economic outlook.

The levies, which Trump gleefully displayed as a globe-spanning leaderboard of import tax rates, feature a baseline 10% for major trading partners like the European Union, higher still at 25% for Canada and Mexico, a massive 46% on Vietnam and potentially more than 50% for China. Within hours economists were penciling in a U.S. recession and drawing comparisons with the 1930s and even the late 1800s, early in the country's industrial development.

On average imports may now carry a tax as high as 27%, Citi economists estimated, with higher levies on some types of goods and some countries and lower ones on others. Less than three months ago at the end of Joe Biden's presidency, that rate was about 2.5%.

If the logic of the administration's detailed plans escaped many private sector analysts - administration officials say it will lead to American economic renewal after a "transition" - the implications had already begun to register among Federal Reserve officials.

After battling inflation for two years and coming close to containing it while keeping the unemployment rate low, U.S. central bankers are now wrestling with a concept they'd rather avoid - stagflation, or a situation where prices and joblessness rise together as they did in the 1970s, a low point for the Fed.

At the moment "we're certainly not in a stagflationary environment," Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said on Wednesday in remarks given just as Trump was unveiling his chart of tariff rates in the Rose Garden.

But "we may be in a situation where we're already seeing some upside risks to inflation and some real increases in inflation, at least in some categories...We may be seeing down the road a little bit of a slowdown as well," Kugler said. "We're paying close attention about, how much will that slowdown mean? How much will those upside rates to inflation be realized?"

Stagflation, she said, was by contrast "a big word...It means really corrosive inflation...And it means you have negative economic activity. You have a recession."

Some economists already were seeing the economy moving in that direction and were cutting forecasts for U.S. growth, if not worse.

"This is a recession-producing turn – if these tariffs stay in place," wrote TS Lombard economist Steven Blitz. "The damage from (Trump's) tack to reset trade may very well create a worse, less-healthy outcome."

More

With tariff details in hand, Fed now has to weigh inflation risks against blow to growth

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

New battery tech makes sub-zero EV charging 5x faster

By Abhimanyu Ghoshal  April 03, 2025

One of the things you might not learn about electric vehicles (EV) until you live with one is that they charge slower in cold temperatures, which means you might have to spend longer at a charging station on long winter drives.

In addition, the climate's impact on your car's battery chemistry, and the power drawn when you heat the cabin and seats can together sap about 25% of range when you're cruising at 70 mph (113 km/h), compared with driving at that speed in mild weather.

Researchers at the University of Michigan have a way to tackle the first problem. By slightly altering the manufacturing process for lithium-ion EV batteries, their technique can enable rapid charging at awfully low temperatures – up to five times as fast – without reducing their energy density.

To be precise, the team's method enables '6C' charging at temperatures as low as 14 °F (-10 °C). The 'C' here is a way to express the charging speed relative to the battery's capacity. So, for example, for a car with a 50-kWh battery, a 1C charging rate would mean charging at 50 kW, and a 6C charging rate would mean charging at 300 kW (6 × 50 kW). That's ridiculously fast – and potentially good news for future EV owners in cold climes.

Why do cars charge more slowly in the cold? It's because the movement of lithium ions back and forth between electrodes via a liquid electrolyte in a battery slows down. This reduces both the charging rate as well as the battery's power.

So how do you speed up EV charging? One way is to follow researcher Neil Dasgupta's method of laser drilling tiny pathways in the graphite anode that receives lithium ions during charging.

You'll find that that this works well at room temperature, but in the cold, a chemical plating of lithium formed on the surface of the anode and prevented it from reacting with the electrolyte. So you'll need to go one step further.

By coating the laser drilled graphite anode with a glassy material made of lithium borate-carbonate, charging can be sped up by five times the rate observed in below-freezing temperatures. The team published a paper documenting this work in the journal Joule last month.

The researchers note that this has the potential to address one of the major concerns cited by adults in the US surveyed by the American Automobile Association (AAA) last year about interest in purchasing EVs. They intend to explore ways to integrate their method into battery manufacturing processes – so hopefully, we'll soon see electric cars that charge as quickly in the cold as they do in more pleasant weather.

Source: University of Michigan

New battery tech makes sub-zero EV charging 5x faster

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

This weekend’s music diversion.  Approx. 13 minutes.

Pasquale Bini (1716-1770) - Concerto grosso con Violino Principale

Pasquale Bini (1716-1770) - Concerto grosso con Violino Principale - YouTube

This weekend’s chess diversion. Approx. 14 minutes.

This Move Belongs in Chess Books!

This Move Belongs in Chess Books! - YouTube

This weekend’s reality check. Canada’s US tariffs. Approx. 12 minutes.

Is Trump right about Canada charging 250% tariffs? | About That

Is Trump right about Canada charging 250% tariffs? | About That - YouTube

I'd throw dollars out of helicopters if I had to, to stimulate the economy.

Ben Bernanke

Friday, 4 April 2025

Demolition Day. Great Depression 2.0? It’s Oz Penguins Fault.

Baltic Dry Index. 1540 -43          Brent Crude 69.47

Spot Gold 3104               US 2 Year Yield 3.71 -0.20  

US Federal Debt. 36.680 trillion!!!

From now on, the pound abroad is worth 14 per cent or so less in terms of other currencies. That doesn't mean, of course, that the Pound here in Britain, in your pocket or purse or in your bank, has been devalued.

Harold Wilson

With the global stock casinos, plus oil and gold, crashing due to the Great Trumpian Error of Tariff Tyranny, which is well covered in mainstream media, there’s little need for my input, except to ask who taught Aussie Penguins how to make electrical machinery? Why?

In a bizarre twist to the escalating U.S. trade war, President Donald Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on goods from two Australian territories inhabited solely by penguins.

The move has sparked confusion and satire across the Pacific, as the targeted region, the Heard and McDonald Islands, is entirely uninhabited and rarely visited by humans.

---- Even more puzzling were figures showing that the U.S. had imported $1.4 million worth of goods from the Heard and McDonald Islands in 2022 — mostly categorized as “electrical machinery.”

Japan stocks extend declines as Trump tariffs roil markets, Nikkei falls over 2%

Updated Fri, Apr 4 2025 10:58 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets extended declines on Friday, tracking steep losses on Wall Street after U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs rattled global markets.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 1.06%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 2.07% while the Topix declined 2.69%.

South Korea’s Kospi slipped 1.03% and the small-cap Kosdaq was 0.30% higher after the country’s Constitutional Court upheld the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol, ousting him from office.

The decision now starts a 60-day countdown where a presidential election must be held to select the next president. Prime Minister Han Duck-soo has been reinstated as acting president in the mean time.

Hong Kong and China markets are closed for the Qingming Festival.

On Wednesday, Trump unveiled reciprocal tariff rates that over 180 countries and territories will face, raising the risk of a global trade war.

U.S. futures fell after Trump’s tariffs led to the largest decline in U.S. equities in five years.

Futures tied to the blue-chip index lost 100 points, or 0.3%, after the 30-stock average tumbled more than 1,600 points in the prior session. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures each shed 0.2%.

Overnight in the U.S., the three major averages plummeted. The S&P 500 slid back into correction territory, dropping 4.84% to 5,396.52. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 1,679.39 points, or 3.98%, to close at 40,545.93 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.97% to end at 16,550.61, logging its biggest decline since March 2020. 

Asia-Pacific markets live: Nikkei 225, Trump tariffs

Dow nosedives 1,600 points, S&P 500 and Nasdaq drop the most since 2020 after Trump’s tariff onslaught

Updated Thu, Apr 3 2025 4:37 PM EDT

Stocks plummeted Thursday, sending the S&P 500 back into correction territory for its biggest one-day loss since 2020, after President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs, raising the risk of a global trade war that plunges the economy into a recession.

The broad market index dropped 4.84% and settled at 5,396.52, posting its worst day since June 2020. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 1,679.39 points, or 3.98%, to close at 40,545.93 and mark its worst session since June 2020. The Nasdaq Composite plummeted 5.97% and ended at 16,550.61, registering its biggest decline since March 2020. The slide across equities was broad, with more than 400 of the S&P 500′s constituents posting losses.

Thursday’s moves sent the S&P 500 to its lowest level since before Trump’s election win in November. The benchmark now sits about 12% from its record close touched in February.

Shares of multinational companies tumbled. Nike and Apple dropped 14% and 9%, respectively. Big sellers of imported goods were among the hardest hit. Five Below lost nearly 28%, Dollar Tree tumbled 13% and Gap plunged 20%. Tech shares dropped in an overall risk-off mood, with Nvidia off almost 8% and Tesla down more than 5%.

A baseline tariff rate of 10% on all countries goes into effect April 5. Even bigger duties against countries that levy higher rates on the U.S. will be charged in coming days, according to the administration.

----- JPMorgan economists said a recession was now likely if these new tariff rates are sustained and not negotiated lower.

Stock market today: Live updates, Trump tariffs

Dow futures fall after tariffs push market to biggest losses since 2020: Live updates

Updated Fri, Apr 4 2025 7:42 PM EDT

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slid Thursday night after President Donald Trump’s tariff plan triggered the biggest slide in U.S. equities in five years.

Futures tied to the blue-chip index lost 77 points, or 0.2%, after the 30-stock average tumbled more than 1,600 points in the prior session. S&P 500 futures lost 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures were marginally lower.

Thursday night’s action follows the worst day since 2020 for each of the three major indexes. The Dow and S&P 500 dropped roughly 4% and 4.8%, respectively, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite plunged nearly 6%.

The S&P 500 fell back into a correction Thursday, down more than 10% from its February all-time high. The small-cap focused Russell 2000 dove more than 6%, the first widely followed measure of U.S. stocks to enter a bear market, or a decline of at least 20% from its last peak.

Thursday’s sell-off hit megacap technology stocks especially hard, with CNBC’s Magnificent Seven index sliding more than 6%. Collectively, the stocks in the “Magnificent Seven,” which led the market higher in both 2023 and 2024, lost more than $1 trillion in market value.

The Nasdaq Composite has led the way lower for stocks this week, falling 4.5% as the tariff plan drove investors to reduce their risk exposure. The S&P 500 and Dow Industrials have slipped 3.3% and 2.5%, respectively, week to date. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are tracking for their worst weekly performances since September 2024 and sixth negative week of the last seven.

Global markets sold off after Trump on Wednesday announced a baseline tariff rate of 10% on imported goods from all countries going into effect April 5. Several nations face far higher levies, according to the White House.

Investors now wonder if countries will be able to strike trade deals with the U.S. to reduce tariff duties. Trump said Thursday he is open to trade negotiations, an about-face from earlier statements by administration officials.

“The Trump administration may be playing a game of chicken with trading partners, but market participants aren’t willing to wait around for the results,” said Michael Arone, SPDR chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors. “Investors are selling first and asking questions later.”

Investors on Friday morning will focus on the closely watched jobs report for March. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 140,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.1%.

Stock market today: Live updates

US dollar pounded amid fears Trump's trade war will plunge the US into recession

3 April 2925

The pound and the euro raced to six-month highs against the dollar yesterday on fears Donald Trump’s trade war will plunge the US into recession.

As panic mounted amid warnings of an economic ‘spiral of doom’, sterling topped $1.32 for the first time since October while the single currency rose above $1.11.

The greenback was also sharply lower against the Japanese yen and Swiss franc and has now fallen more than 6pc against a basket of global currencies in 2025 – its worst start to the year since 1995. It has given up all the gains made since Trump’s election win in November.

‘The blowback of US tariffs on to the US domestic economy leaves the dollar naked,’ warned Chris Turner, global head of markets at banking group ING.

Investors dumping the dollar flocked to the relative safety of government bonds, pushing prices up and yields lower.

The yield on ten-year UK gilts fell towards 4.5pc having touched 4.8pc last week in the wake of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Spring Statement.

The equivalent yield on US Treasuries dropped to 4 per cent for the first time since October.

The latest ructions came after the US President slapped a baseline 10 per cent tariff on imports from around the world and added eye-watering top-ups on dozens of trade partners.

While Trump insisted tariffs would ‘make America wealthy again’, analysts warned they could tip the US into recession.

This is how you sabotage the world’s economic engine while claiming to supercharge it,’ said Nigel Green of the global financial advisory Devere Group.

Countries are now drawing up plans for tit-for-tat tariffs as protectionism sweeps the globe. ‘It’s clear countries will think about how to retaliate in a politically astute way,’ said Justin Onuekwusi, chief investment officer at St James’s Place.

‘Significant retaliation could lead to a tariff spiral of doom that could be the growth shock that drags us into recession.’ 

The slump in the dollar and government bond yields suggests investors are more concerned about a downturn in the US economy than the inflationary impact of tariffs pushing up the price of imported goods.

George Brown, an economist at Schroders, said tariffs put the US Federal Reserve, the central bank, ‘between a rock and a hard place’ as it is left to grapple with weaker economic growth and higher inflation.

Chris Iggo, chief investment officer at AXA Investment Managers, said: ‘The US’s more aggressive stance on trade appears to be turning global investor sentiment away from the world’s largest economy.

More

US dollar pounded amid fears Trump's trade war will plunge the US into recession

Trump tariffs to drag global growth down by trillions of dollars

Thursday 03 April 2025 11:47 am

Donald Trump’s tariffs is set to drag the world economy down by trillions of dollars, according to forecasts by leading economists. 

The International Monetary Fund estimates the current global economy is worth more than $115 trillion and it has been predicted to grow by around three per cent, per various forecasts. 

But since Trump announced damaging tariffs reaching as high as 49 per cent, economists have been rapidly downgrading their forecasts. 

Panmure Liberum’s Simon French dropped his prediction for global economic output growth to 2.5 per cent from 3.25 per cent. 

He attributed this lower estimate to the “demand shock” that will shake the world. 

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research said ahead of Trump’s Rose Garden speech that ten per cent tariffs could hold back global output by around two per cent over five years. 

A 0.5 per cent knock to global GDP would equate to around $5 trillion.

Tariffs on different countries have varied as the UK was left relatively unscathed in comparison to the likes of Cambodia and Vietnam. 

China, meanwhile, now faces taxes on its exports to the US of around 54 per cent when earlier tariffs are taken into account. 

Economists have set out to calculate the global average rate of tariffs, with estimates ranging between 18 per cent and 22 per cent. 

ING’s James Knightley said the total value of the tariffs poised to upend the global economy was $600bn. 

There are growing concerns about what ‘Liberation Day’ means for some of the world’s economic powerhouses. 

US economy now “vulnerable” to recession

Oxford Economics’ Ryan Sweet said the US economy is now “dangerously vulnerable” to a recession, a prospect which is likely to devastate major trading partners across Europe and Asia. 

Sweet also suggested the worst could be yet to come, with President Trump claiming his tariffs were “very kind”. 

“Uncertainty hasn’t been materially reduced, as it’s unclear if these tariffs are a cap, if they could move even higher or how long they will be in place.”

Chatham House researcher Max Yoeli suggested an all-out global trade war had now begun.

“Internationally, it is likely today’s measures will accelerate US trade partners’ diversifying their relationships and reducing reliance on the US,” he said.

“Once the first salvos are fired in a trade war, it is difficult to predict where it will end, and this uncertainty poses vexing challenges for businesses and governments alike.” 

Trump tariffs to drag global growth down by trillions of dollars

Pharma tariff relief likely short-lived with sector-specific duties on the horizon

Published Thu, Apr 3 2025 6:25 AM EDT

Pharmaceutical companies breathed a sigh of relief Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump revealed that they would not be subject to reciprocal tariffs — but that reprieve could prove fleeting as the White House moves ahead with plans for the sector.

The Trump administration is considering launching a so-called 232 investigation into pharmaceuticals, among other industries, which could lead to import duties under the Trade Expansion Act.

“The pharmaceutical companies are going to come roaring back, they are coming roaring back, they are all coming back to our country because if they don’t they got a big tax to pay. And if they do, I’ll be very happy,” Trump said during his “Liberation Day” tariff announcement.

In a national emergency declaration accompanying the tariff plan, the White House cited the “particularly acute” need to reinforce domestic manufacturing across sectors such as pharmaceuticals, autos and shipbuilding.

Health care stocks opened slightly higher Thursday, but the Stoxx Healthcare index then dipped 0.4% by 11:00 a.m. London time, extending losses from the previous session as investors braced for more uncertainty ahead.

Switzerland’s Roche led declines, shedding 2.4%, while Wegovy-maker Novo fell 0.7%. Other regional players including NovartisBavarian NordicAstraZeneca ticked slightly higher.

The pharma industry’s hopes of a sector-wide tariff carve-out faded after Trump last week confirmed that an announcement would come soon, but drugmakers have since been lobbying the administration for a phased approach to allow companies time to relocate their manufacturing Stateside. 

“A whispered potential for a phase-in approach, if it materializes, could dampen immediate shocks across the industry,” Citi said in a note Thursday.

Nevertheless, even with a delayed approach, the complex nature of pharmaceutical supply chains mean that “larger-scale shifts are on a multi-year timeline,” making any relief potentially short lived.

Novo Nordisk declined to comment on the tariff developments on Thursday, but chairman Helge Lund told CNBC last week that the company was not speculating on any levy announcements and was instead focused on remaining “flexible.”

More

Pharma tariff relief likely short-lived as sector-specific duties on the horizon

Trump Slaps 10% Tariffs on Remote Penguin-Inhabited Islands

3 April 2025

And no - it's not a late April First.

In a bizarre twist to the escalating U.S. trade war, President Donald Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on goods from two Australian territories inhabited solely by penguins.

The move has sparked confusion and satire across the Pacific, as the targeted region, the Heard and McDonald Islands, is entirely uninhabited and rarely visited by humans.

The islands, located in the Southern Ocean between Antarctica and Australia, are considered among the most isolated places on Earth.

Covered in glaciers and home to vast colonies of penguins and seals, the volcanic islands have not seen a human visitor in nearly a decade. Despite this, they appeared on an official White House list of “countries” facing new U.S. import tariffs, as reported by Digi24.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese commented dryly, “Nowhere on Earth is safe,” after news broke that even this icy wilderness had been swept up in Washington’s sweeping protectionist campaign.

The Heard and McDonald Islands are administered by Australia as external territories, along with other sparsely populated or uninhabited regions like the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, Christmas Island, and Norfolk Island — all of which were listed separately in the White House tariff announcement.

One of the most baffling entries on the list was Norfolk Island, a tiny Pacific outpost with just over 2,000 residents, which received a 29% tariff — notably higher than mainland Australia’s 10%.

However, local officials disputed the data that underpinned the tariffs. George Plant, administrator of Norfolk Island, said, “There are no known exports from Norfolk Island to the United States.”

Even more puzzling were figures showing that the U.S. had imported $1.4 million worth of goods from the Heard and McDonald Islands in 2022 — mostly categorized as “electrical machinery.” No such production facilities or settlements exist there, raising questions about the accuracy of export data or possible mislabeling.

More

Trump Slaps 10% Tariffs on Remote Penguin-Inhabited Islands

In other news, a fatal EV fire in Madrid.

Deaths in Garage Fire

by Hugh MacArthur • April 3, 2025

Two firefighters have died and 14 injured in a garage fire in Madrid yesterday. Of those injured, only one was seriously injured with the rest all suffering from mild toxic inhalation.

According to emergency-services sources, the fire was probably caused by an electric car that went up in flames within the garage on Calle Lilos the barrio of Las Retamas.

As for the deaths, it appears that one of the deceased had been caught out by an explosion that affected several parked cars. The second death was caused by severe, toxic-fumes inhalation leading to the victim succumbing on his way to Getafe University Hospital.

The explosions, flames and toxic smoke necessitated the evacuation of the building above the garage and those within the immediate vecinity.

Deaths in Garage Fire - Costa Tropical Gazette News

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

‘Absolutely nothing good’ coming out of Trump’s tariff announcement: Analysts react to latest U.S. levies

Published Thu, Apr 3 2025 2:17 AM EDT

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday laid out the “reciprocal tariff” rates that more than 180 countries and territories will face under his sweeping new trade policy.

The announcement sent stocks tumbling and prompted investors to seek refuge in assets perceived to be safe.

Analysts generally had a pessimistic take on the announcement, with some even predicting an increased risk of a recession for the U.S.

Here is a compilation of reactions from experts and analysts:

Tai Hui, APAC Chief Market Strategist, J.P. Morgan Asset Management

“Today’s announcement could potentially raise U.S. average tariff rates to levels not seen since the early 20th century. If these tariffs persist, they could materially impact inflation, as U.S. manufacturing struggles to ramp up capacity and supply chains pass on costs to consumers. For instance, advanced semiconductor manufacturers in Taiwan may not absorb tariff costs without viable substitutes.

“The scale of these tariffs raises concerns about growth risks. U.S. consumers may cut back on spending due to pricier imports, and businesses might delay capital expenditures amid uncertainty about the tariffs’ full impact and potential retaliation from trade partners.”

David Rosenberg, President and founder of Rosenberg Research

“There are no winners in a global trade war. And when people have to realize, when you hear this clap trap about how consumers in United States are not going to bear any brunt. It’s all going to be the foreign producer. I roll my eyes whenever I hear that, because it shows a zero understanding of how trade works, because it is the importing business that pays the tariff, not the exporting country.

And a lot of that will get transmitted into the consumer, so we’re in for several months of a very significant price shock for the American household sector.”

Anthony Raza, Head of Multi-Asset Strategy, UOB Asset Management

“They’ve come up with the most extreme numbers that we can’t even comprehend. How they’re coming up with these? And then in terms of timing, I think we were hopeful that maybe this would be something that was rolled out over the course of a year, that would allow like time for negotiations or whatever. But it does seem like the timing is much more immediate and is, again, worse than our worst-case type scenario in terms of flexibility.”

David Roche, Strategist, Quantum Strategy

”These tariffs are not transitional. They are core to President Trump’s beliefs. They mark the shift from globalisation to isolationist, nationalist policies – and not just for economics. The process will last several years and be felt for decades. There will be spillovers into multiple policy domains such as geopolitics.

Right now, expect retaliation, not negotiation by the EU (targeting U.S. services) and China (focusing on U.S. strategic and business interests). The Rose Garden tariffs will cement the bear market. They will cause global stagflation as well as U.S. and EU recession.”

More

'Absolutely nothing good' coming out of Trump's tariff announcement: Analysts react to latest U.S. levies

Fed's Kugler says inflation progress may have stalled, backs steady rate policy

April 2, 2025

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Progress towards the U.S. central bank's 2% inflation target has slowed recently and may have stalled, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler said on Wednesday, a reason to keep interest rates where they are.

"Recent disinflation has been slower, and the latest data indicate that progress toward the Federal Open Market Committee's 2% goal may have stalled," Kugler said in remarks prepared for delivery for an event at Princeton University.

In addition to that lack of progress, Kugler noted the recent rise in inflation expectations, and the "upside risks associated with announced and prospective policy changes," such as the import tariffs planned by the Trump administration.

Kugler said she would support keeping the Fed's benchmark policy rate in the current 4.25%-4.50% range "for as long as these upside risks to inflation continue," given ongoing economic growth and stable employment.

The job market does seem to be moderating, she said, but does not appear to be weakening significantly.

Kugler focused much of her speech on the role inflation expectations play in price-setting behavior among firms and wage demands in households.

The fact that inflation was recently so high, she said, meant expectations may be more sensitive to further price moves.

Measures of expectations have risen lately, Kugler said, something the Fed needs to watch. She said, however, that she took "some comfort from the much smaller increases in longer-term expectations" seen in some surveys and market-based measures.

The Fed held interest rates steady at its March 18-19 meeting, and central bank officials have said they want more clarity on the impact of President Donald Trump's policies. Fed policymakers' projections for the year, however, showed they expect higher inflation and slower growth than they did in December before the sweep of Trump's tariff plans became clearer.

Fed's Kugler says inflation progress may have stalled, backs steady rate policy

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.


Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Sunny weather sees new record for British solar power

2 April 2025

Sunny conditions helped solar power generate a new record high of more than 12.5 gigawatts of electricity on Tuesday, the system operator has said.

The record 12.569GW of power from solar – equivalent to around four new nuclear power plants – was generated between 12:30 and 1pm on Tuesday.

And with the sunny conditions continuing, there is potential for the new record to be broken again later this week.

A spokesperson for the National Energy System Operator (Neso) said it was “great to see solar being able to play an ever increasing role in our energy mix”.

The spokesperson said: “Over the last six years we’ve been working to reconfigure the network to enable more and more clean power sources to operate as the use of coal has been phased out.

“Today’s new solar record is testament to the work our teams have been leading to deliver our 2025 ambition for zero carbon operation.”

Responding to the new record, Jess Ralston, analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) think tank said increased solar power generation made Britain less reliant on gas, the cost of which soared following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Every new solar panel installed in the UK makes us less dependent on gas imports, which is good for our energy independence as well as for stabilising energy bills given the sun offers up its power for free.

“As we install more solar and build more wind turbines, our reliance on gas will fall, as will our vulnerability to the likes of Putin.

“Volatile gas prices cost us an extra £140 billion since the crisis began so there are benefits for tax payers and bill payers alike,” she said.

Sunny weather sees new record for British solar power

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Another weekend and the first weekend of the newly started Trump global trade war. How long it lasts and how it ends, no one knows. Who will be the winners, if any, and who will be the losers is an open question, although US consumers will be among the losers by paying higher prices for imported goods.  Have a great weekend everyone.

The ambition of the present Labour government is that every worker in the country will have a greater than average income.

Harold Wilson