US China Trade Talks Get Framework? CPI Day.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1680 -11            Brent Crude 66.76

Spot Gold 3340                  US 2 Year Yield 4.03 +0.02  

US Federal Debt. 36.963 trillion  

US GDP 30.064 trillion.

The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.

Ben Bernanke

In the stock casinos, trade talk optimism. After two days of talking, both sides have reached a “framework”.

“We have reached a framework to implement the Geneva consensus and the call between the two presidents,” Lutnick told reporters.

Supposedly, rare earths for the latest semi-conductor chips and equipment, but who knows how long either side will honour the new “framework”.

While the US Treasury Secretary exited the Great London Trade Pow Wow, the GLTPW will continue today under US Commerce Secretary Lutnick and US Trade Representative Greer.

Later today, the US updates the CPI, the first of this week’s two US May inflation indexes.

Asia-Pacific markets climb on optimism over progress in U.S.-China trade talks

Updated Wed, Jun 11 2025 12:08 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets climbed Wednesday as trade discussions between the U.S. and China led to an agreement, representatives from both sides said.

The deal is now awaiting a nod from the leaders of the two countries.

“We have reached a framework to implement the Geneva consensus and the call between the two presidents,” Lutnick told reporters. That echoed comments made to reporters by Li Chenggang, China’s international trade representative and a vice minister at China’s Commerce Ministry.

The talks had continued for a second day in London on Tuesday. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he was departing the ongoing trade talks, but Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer would remain to continue the negotiations. Discussions could extend into Wednesday if needed, Lutnick said previously.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 index advanced 0.77% higher while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.9%.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 added 0.45% while the broader Topix index was flat.

In South Korea, the Kospi index advanced 0.71%, briefly nearing its highest level in 42 months earlier in the session, while the small-cap Kosdaq popped 1.71%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 increased by 0.29%, after briefly hitting a new high earlier in the session.

The Nifty 50 rose 0.11% at the open.

U.S. stock futures were near the flatline in early Asian hours, as investors waited for more insight on trade discussions, as well as the release of May’s U.S. consumer inflation report.

Overnight stateside, all three key benchmarks rose on hopes for a positive resolution on the trade talks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 105.11 points, or 0.25%, and closed at 42,866.87. The S&P 500 rose 0.55% to end at 6,038.81, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.63% and settled at 19,714.99. It was the third positive session for both indexes.

Asia stock markets today: live updates for June 11 2025

China, U.S. officials reach agreement for allowing rare-earth, tech exchange. Now it’s up to Trump and Xi

Published Tue, Jun 10 2025 8:01 PM EDT

The U.S. and China have reached an agreement on trade, representatives from both sides said after a second day of high-level talks in London, with the deal now awaiting a nod from the leaders of the two countries.

“We have reached a framework to implement the Geneva consensus and the call between the two presidents,” U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told reporters.

That echoed comments to reporters from Li Chenggang, China’s international trade representative and a vice minister at China’s Commerce Ministry.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke by phone late last week, stabilizing what had become a fraught relationship with both countries accusing each other of violating the Geneva trade agreement. At a meeting in Switzerland in mid-May, the world’s two largest economies had agreed to a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs added in April, and a rollback of certain other measures.

Lutnick said he and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will head back to Washington, D.C., to “make sure President Trump approves” the deal outline. If Xi also agrees, then “we will implement the framework,” Lutnick said.

The fact that the two sides will now brief their leaders “is a clear sign that some disagreements or unresolved details still require internal discussion,” said Jianwei Xu, senior economist at Natixis. The framework agreement signals a commitment to de-escalate and continue the dialogue process, but whether it will lead to “concrete agreements or substantive breakthroughs” continues to be uncertain, he said.

Chinese restrictions on rare-earth exports to the U.S. are a “fundamental part” of the latest agreement and the U.S. expects the issue “will be resolved in this framework implementation,” Lutnick said.

He indicated U.S. restrictions on sales of advanced tech to China in recent weeks would be rolled back as Beijing approves rare-earth exports.

“This deal is taped together by the two sides’ leverage over each other, not common principles or shared interests,” said Scott Kennedy, senior adviser and trustee chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. “The chances for further stops and starts is quite high.” 

While Chinese state media had been quick to announce Xi’s call with Trump last week, Beijing’s official mouthpieces were conspicuously silent more than one hour after Lutnick’s comments, except for a lower-profile mention citing Vice Commerce Minister Li as saying that the talks helped build bilateral trust.

On Tuesday local time in London, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters he was headed back to the U.S. in order to testify before Congress.

Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, the lead negotiator on trade talks with the U.S., and Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao also participated in this week’s discussions.

China’s CSI 300 index was trading slightly higher, while U.S. stock futures were down as investors awaited details on the trade framework.

U.S.-China agree on framework to implement Geneva trade consensus

Futures inch lower as investors await details on China-U.S. trade framework; inflation report looms: Live updates

Updated Wed, Jun 11 2025 8:45 PM EDT

Stock futures ticked lower on Tuesday night as investors sought details on a trade policy consensus reached between the U.S. and China. They also anticipated the release of May’s consumer inflation report.

Futures tied to the S&P 500 were off 0.16%, while Nasdaq 100 futures inched down 0.17%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 55 points, or 0.14%.

U.S. and Chinese officials reached a consensus on trade after a second day of talks in London, according to an NBC transcript.

---- The discussions are a key focus for investors and a broader market that remains jittery toward any jolts on trade policy. Both China and the U.S. previously agreed to temporarily pause high tariffs on one another in May, although a fully ironed out agreement has yet to materialize.

---- Even as stocks have been resurging, tariff fears and rising bond yields could hang over the market, according to Deutsche Bank.

“One key concern is that the Trump administration, buoyed by the market rebound, may resume aggressive tariff rhetoric—potentially triggering renewed retaliation from China and Europe, as seen earlier this year,” the firm’s group chief economist David Folkerts-Landau said in a Tuesday note.

“At the same time, rising long-end bond yields are amplifying fiscal concerns globally, particularly given plans for expanded deficits across multiple major economies,” he added. “With several countries already on unsustainable debt paths, the events of 2025 may have accelerated an inevitable reckoning.”

Investors will get further insight into the U.S. economy on Wednesday morning as the Bureau of Labor Statistics rolls out May’s reading of the consumer price index. Economists polled by Dow Jones call for a 0.2% month-over-month increase, while headline CPI is anticipated to have grown 2.4% from 12 months earlier. A hot report could spook investors who are already on edge over inflationary pressures.

“Ultimately this report is not expected to cause any significant changes to the Fed’s current wait and see approach when it comes to setting rates,” said Sam Millette, director of fixed income at Commonwealth Financial Network. “With that being said, we’ll have to wait and see if the report shows the anticipated modest rise in price pressure that’s expected or if there are any surprises in store for investors.”

Stock market today: Live updates

In other news, a gigantic over reaction?

Ag experts say crop fungus smuggled by Chinese researchers is already prevalent in US

June 10, 2025

When Damon Smith first read reports that two Chinese nationals were accused of smuggling a dangerous biological pathogen into the United States with the potential to be used as an agroterrorism weapon, he thought it was possibly a new pathogen.

The University of Wisconsin-Madison Division of Extension field crops pathologist soon realized that the alleged dangerous biological weapon was a common fungus that most farmers and ag experts are already familiar. The fungus Fusarium graminearum more commonly known in wheat as "scab" or "head blight" and in corn as "gib" or "ear rot" is already widespread in the U.S. crop fields.

Smith says Midwest farmers have been dealing with the disease for over 35 years. According to the U.S. Department of Justice, "head blight" in some crops is responsible for billions of dollars in economic losses globally each year.

"Under conditions that are favorable for disease, such as warm and wet conditions, the disease can significantly impact yield and grain quality," Smith said.

Who was implicated in smuggling pathogens into the U.S.?

According to an FBI criminal complaint, Zunyong Liu, 34, a researcher currently in China, brought the fungus into the United States while visiting his girlfriend, Yunqing Jian, 33, in July 2024, Reuters reported. Liu was denied entry into the U.S. when the pathogen was found in his luggage. He told authorities that he wanted to conduct research on the fungus at a University of Michigan laboratory where Jian worked.

A third Chinese researcher was arrested on Sunday after landing at the Detroit Metropolitan airport on a flight from Shanghai, according to charging documents. She was charged with smuggling goods into the US and making false statements.

Upon Chengxuan Han’s arrival to the US, border officers discovered Han sent four packages in both 2024 and 2025 addressed to individuals associated with a laboratory at the University of Michigan that “contained biological material related to round worms” from China, the New York Post reported.

Han admitted to shipping the biological materials to the lab from her research as a Ph.D. student from the College of Life Science and Technology in the Huazhong University of Science and Technology (HUST) in Wuhan, according to court documents.

How is the fungus controlled in the U.S.?

Agricultural experts interviewed by Reuters says the fungus can be prevented by spraying pesticides. Researchers have also developed strains of wheat that are resistant to the fungus.

The pathogen is only dangerous if ingested regularly and in large quantities. Smith says the fungus can produce the mycotoxins referred to as deoxynivalenol (DON or vomitoxin) and zearalenone. DON can induce vomiting and gastrointestinal issues in cattle. The second can affect animal reproductive systems.

More

Ag experts cast doubt on FBI claim that smuggled crop fungus is a threat

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

'No recession bet whatsoever': The stock market isn't pricing in any sort of economic downturn, investment firm says

June 9, 2025

Investors are betting that the US economy will continue to grow and they're behaving as if there's "no recession risk whatsoever," market research firm The Leuthold Group wrote in a note last week.

That conclusion is based on a key indicator, the S&P 500 Cyclical/Defensive Ratio, which compares the most economically sensitive sectors, like consumer discretionary, industrials, and materials, to more stable areas of the market such as consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities.

The Leuthold Group calculates this metric based on price to earnings, price to cash flow, price to sales, and price to book ratios.

Cyclical stocks typically trade at a discount during recessions because their earnings are more vulnerable to economic slowdowns. Investors, meanwhile, pay a relative premium for the safety of defensive stocks with more inelastic demand.

In May, this ratio hit an all-time high of 1.19, indicating a 19% premium for cyclical stocks relative to defensive shares. This isn't an anomaly, as the ratio has held above 1.05 — placing it in the top 10% of historical readings — for 13 consecutive months.

Recession fears have come down since reaching a fever pitch in April. After the announcement of a 90-day tariff pause and trade negotiations with China, the odds of a recession have fallen from 66% to 28% on prediction market Polymarket.

However, several Wall Street strategists are still concerned, as a 28% chance of recession is still higher than the long-term average of around 15%. Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo, and Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, have been ringing the bell on stagflation concerns.

According to The Leuthold Group, a 28% chance of recession is still far too high based on what the market is pricing in. Ahead of past recessions — including 2000, 2008, and 2020 — cyclical sectors were trading at steep discounts to their more stable counterparts.

The average valuation gap at pre-recession market peaks was about 25% in favor of defensives. During these recessions, the average valuation gap increased to 38%.

"Much of the recession 'discount' in the comparative valuations of Cyclicals occurred during the twelve months (or earlier) preceding the pre-recession stock market peak. Today, that process does not appear to have begun," the firm wrote.

The elevated S&P 500 Cyclical/Defensive Ratio also reflects some valuation shifts that have occurred over the last few decades. Defensive stock valuations have been declining as long-term growth for consumer staples and healthcare companies slow down.

These companies now trade at a 10% discount to the S&P 500, compared to a medium premium of 10% since 1990. During previous recessionary bear markets, defensives traded at a 33% premium relative to the rest of the market, suggesting room for a defensive comeback if recessionary fears return. If this does occur, investors heavily exposed to cyclicals will suffer the most.

Investors are continuing to bet on the most economically sensitive parts of the market. As long as cyclical stocks retain their valuation premium against defensives, it seems like there's no recession scare to be worried about.

'No recession bet whatsoever': The stock market isn't pricing in any sort of economic downturn, investment firm says

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

Doctors warn of painful symptom in new Covid Nimbus variant NB.1.8.1

9 June 2025

Over five years on from the onslaught of Covid-19 in the UK, officials are grappling with a novel strain that's infiltrating countries worldwide.

Dubbed the Nimbus variant, or NB. 1.8.1, this version of the virus has cropped up in 22 countries so far and is behind surging infections in India, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Thailand. The escalating global concern reached British shores with the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) confirming its presence in the UK last Thursday, June 5.

While only 13 cases have been spotted across England to date, health chiefs are mindful of the burgeoning representation of NB. 1.8.1 internationally, signalling an uptick in the proportion of global Covid infections attributed to this variant, reports the Manchester Evening News. Initially identified on January 21, the World Health Organisation (WHO) elevated NB. 1.8.1 to a strain "under monitoring" as early as May 23, noting its climb to account for 10.7% of worldwide cases by late April 2025, a stark jump from merely 2.5% a month earlier.

Yet, despite the spread, the WHO isn't currently endorsing any new travel bans in response to the Nimbus strain. Echoing international insights, Dr Gayatri Amirthalingam, Deputy Director at UKHSA, remarked: "NB.1.8.1 has been detected in small numbers in the UK to date, but international data suggests that it is growing as a proportion of all COVID-19 cases.

"Based on the available information so far however, there is no evidence to suggest that this variant causes more severe disease than previous variants, or that the vaccines in current use will be less effective against it."

Key symptoms of Covid NB. 1.8.1 to look out for

Medics have issued a warning about one distinctive and painful symptom that could indicate you've been infected with Covid.

Symptoms of the new strain are thought to be similar to earlier versions of the Covid virus, particularly of the Omicron variant, a highly transmissible version of Covid that first emerged in November 2021.

The Nimbus variant is a sub-variant of Omicron, which tends to cause mostly mild symptoms like a runny nose, sore throat, and other cold-like symptoms, as opposed to lower respiratory tract symptoms.

According to Dr Naveed Asif, GP at The London General Practice, the NB. 1.8.1 variant has a distinctive symptom, a severe sore throat known as a "razor blade sensation". This is a sharp, stabbing pain when you swallow, often at the back of the throat.

More

Doctors warn of painful symptom in new Covid Nimbus variant NB.1.8.1

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Scientists build 29.5%-efficiency all-perovskite tandem solar cells through universal interfacial engineering

An international team of researchers used a novel interfacial treatment to improve the performance of perovskite solar cells across a range of narrow and wide bandgap single junction, tandem, and mini-module samples. An all-perovskite tandem solar cell demonstrated its use with a certified efficiency of 29.5%.

June 10, 2025 

An international research team led by Huazhong University of Science and Technology was able to improve (Sn-Pb) single junction tin lead perovskite solar cells, as well as all-perovskite tandem and mini-module variations. using a novel mercapto-functionalized scaffold interfacial engineering strategy.

In the study, “Mercapto-functionalized scaffold improves perovskite buried interfaces for tandem photovoltaics,” published in nature communications, the researchers describe how their approach enabled a single-junction narrow bandgap (NBG) tin lead perovskite solar cell with a power conversion efficiency of 23.7%, a two-terminal (2T) all-perovskite tandem solar cell with a certified efficiency of 29.5% and 24.7%-efficient mini-modules measuring 5 × 5 cm2.

As for stability testing, the modified solar cells consistently outperformed control devices, according to the research.

“The compatibility of our strategy across multiple architectures was highly encouraging. We successfully applied it to narrow-bandgap tin lead (Sn-Pb) perovskites, wide-bandgap (WBG) perovskites, and conventional-bandgap perovskites,” Zonghao Liu, corresponding author, told pv magazine. “This universal interfacial engineering approach demonstrates significant potential for scaling perovskite solar modules.”

----- Several devices were demonstrated and characterized in the study. The NBG solar cells had an open circuit voltage of up to 0.89 V and an efficiency of 23.7%. Further tests with the MSN-SH treatment were conducted on neat lead cells with bandgaps of 1.52 eV, 1.68 eV, and 1.77 eV and compared to control devices. The team found that the buried interface modification method was consistently effective. In particular, the 1.77 eV wide bandgap (WBG) solar cell achieved an efficiency of up to 20.6% with an open-circuit voltage of 1.33 V. in line with the certified results.

To further demonstrate the technology, a monolithic 2T all-perovskite tandem cell was fabricated. It had a certified efficiency of 29.50% and a maximum power point efficiency of 28.7%. The performance was certified by the Shanghai Institute of Microsystem and Information Technology in China.

“Encouragingly, this is one of the highest performance values reported for the monolithic two-terminal all-perovskite tandems, to the best of our knowledge,” said the researchers.

More

Scientists build 29.5%-efficiency all-perovskite tandem solar cells through universal interfacial engineering – pv magazine International

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Whenever destroyers appear among men, they start by destroying money, for money is men’s protection and the base of a moral existence. Destroyers seize gold and leave to its owners a counterfeit pile of paper. This kills all objective standards and delivers men into the arbitrary power of an arbitrary setter of values. Gold was an objective value, an equivalent of wealth produced. Paper is a mortgage on wealth that does not exist, backed by a gun aimed at those who are expected to produce it. Paper is a check drawn by legal looters upon an account which is not theirs: upon the virtue of the victims. Watch for the day when it bounces, marked: “Account Overdrawn.”

Ayn Rand

US v China Trade Talks Continue. Global Trade Dying?

Baltic Dry Index. 1691 +58            Brent Crude 67.27

Spot Gold 3311                  US 2 Year Yield 4.01 -0.03 

US Federal Debt. 36.959 trillion  

US GDP 30.062 trillion.

People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices…. But though the law cannot hinder people of the same trade from sometimes assembling together, it ought to do nothing to facilitate such assemblies, much less to render them necessary.

Adam Smith, The Wealth Of Nations, 9 March 1776.

In the stock casinos, no news from the USA v China trade talks in London yesterday, is good news. President Trump said so yesterday.

But, as Mandy Rice-Davis, said at trial in the 1963 Profumo scandal, “well he would say that, wouldn’t he.” Actually, “well he would, wouldn’t he.”

Well maybe. But for the second time the US negotiating team scurried off to a foreign city to meet with a Chinese team already making a scheduled visit.

Who is showing weakness to whom? Who is apparently desperate for a deal, any deal?

At best, at least the London talks will continue this morning. At worst, what if no oily joint PR press release is the outcome if President Xi, following Canada's lead, continues plays hardball?

Already there are signs that global trade is starting to die.

China and U.S. set to continue trade talks as Trump touts ‘good reports’ from London

Published Mon, Jun 9 2025 3:12 AM EDT

U.S.-China trade talks were set to continue in London on Tuesday, as the world’s top two economies strive to sort out differences following a call between the leaders of the two countries.

President Donald Trump’s top trade officials met their Chinese counterparts in London on Monday, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer negotiating on behalf of the U.S.

Trump has authorized Bessent’s team to potentially remove U.S. restrictions on the sales of chipmaking software, jet engine parts and ethane, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing sources familiar with the matter.

Trump said that the talks were going well and he was “only getting good reports,” according to Reuters.

China’s Foreign Ministry said Saturday that Vice Premier He Lifeng, Beijing’s lead trade negotiator, will be in the U.K. from June 8 to13. Commerce Minister Wang Wentao and China International Trade Representative and Vice Minister of Commerce Li Chenggang also participated in Monday’s talks, according to state media.

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett on Monday told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that the U.S. was seeking confirmation China would restore the flows of critical minerals.

“The purpose of the meeting today is to make sure that they’re serious, but to literally get handshakes ... and get this thing behind us,” Hassett said.

He added that he expected it “to be a short meeting with a big, strong handshake.”

“Our expectation is that ... immediately after the handshake, any export controls from the U.S. will be eased, and the rare earths will be released in volume, and then we can go back to negotiating smaller matters,” Hassett said.

The discussions will continue on Tuesday morning, a source familiar with the situation told CNBC’s Megan Casella.

The talks come after Trump last week said he had held a lengthy phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping as both look to avert a full-blown trade war.

Diplomatic efforts by both sides have ramped up after weeks of heightened trade tension and uncertainty after Trump announced sweeping import tariffs on China and other trading partners in April.

Beijing retaliated, and a tit-for-tat escalation in duties ensued before both sides agreed in Geneva in May to temporarily slash duties for 90 days and to facilitate talks. At the time, the U.S. tariff on Chinese imports was cut from 145% to 30%, while China’s levies on U.S. imports were lowered from 125% to 10%.

China and the U.S. have since repeatedly accused each other of violating the Geneva agreement, with Washington saying Beijing was slow to approve the export of additional critical minerals to the U.S., while China criticized the U.S. imposing new restrictions on Chinese student visas and additional export restrictions on chips.

U.S. press secretary Karoline Leavitt on Sunday said that the London talks would focus on moving forward with the Geneva agreement, noting the two sides’ strategic interests in each other’s markets.

No quick fix

Analysts said the Monday talks were unlikely to make much progress in resolving disagreements and sector-specific tariffs targeting a range of strategic industries, ranging from technology and critical minerals to manufacturing and agriculture.

Rebecca Harding, chief executive of the Centre for Economic Security, told CNBC on Monday that China and the United States “are locked in an existential battle at the moment.”

More

China and U.S. set to continue trade talks as Trump touts 'good reports'

Asia-Pacific markets climb as investors await details of U.S.-China trade talks

Updated Tue, Jun 10 2025 12:26 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets climbed Tuesday as investors awaited further details on the U.S.-China trade talks, which were slated to continue for a second day.

Officials from both countries held trade talks in London on Monday, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer meeting with their Chinese counterparts led by Beijing’s Vice Premier He Lifeng.

Christian Floro, market strategist at Principal Asset Management foresees that the “market backdrop will remain uncertain in the period ahead,” in light of the “fluid nature of trade policy.”

Urging investors to prepare for continued market volatility, Floro noted that now is an opportune time to look at “previously overlooked value-oriented stocks and international equities.”

He identified investment opportunities in domestic-oriented sectors such as utilities, real estate and financials which are typically less sensitive to trade-related shocks. Pockets of opportunities can also be found in software and internet companies, Floro added in a Tuesday note.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 climbed 0.92%, while the broader Topix index increased by 0.43%.

In South Korea, the Kospi index advanced 0.42%, while the small-cap Kosdaq added 0.77%.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 index moved up 0.16% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.33%.

Over in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 benchmark advanced 0.73%.

Meanwhile, India’s benchmark Nifty 50 BSE Sensex started the day flat.

U.S. stock futures rose in Asian hours, after President Donald Trump said that the talks with China were going well and he was “only getting good reports,” according to Reuters.

Overnight stateside, moves on all three key benchmarks on Wall Street were muted. The broad-based S&P 500 inched up 0.09% and notched a second winning session, closing at 6,005.88. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.31% to end at 19,591.24. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked down 1.11 points and closed at 42,761.76.

Asia stock markets today: live updates for June 10 2025

Europe to follow global markets higher as China-U.S. trade talks continue in London

Updated Tue, Jun 10 2025 12:35 AM EDT

Good morning from London, welcome to CNBC’s live blog covering all the action in European financial markets as well as the latest regional and global business news, data and earnings.

Futures data from IG suggests London’s FTSE will open 11 points higher at 8,838, Germany’s DAX up 62 points at 24,234, France’s CAC 40 up 23 points at 7,807 and Italy’s FTSE MIB 83 points higher at 40,545.

Global markets have been buoyed by trade talks that are taking place between U.S. and Chinese officials in London this week, with hopes rising that both sides can avert large-scale punitive tariffs and a trade war.

Global markets will be keeping an eye on the talks, which are set to continue Tuesday.

The latest U.K. unemployment figures are also due, but there are no other significant earnings or data reports Tuesday.

European markets on Tues June 10: China-US talks, Stoxx 600, DAX, FTSE

US Container Imports Just Dropped 10% From the Last Month

June 9,2025

The latest shipping data just arrived, and it reveals a sharp drop in overall container volumes for May 2025 — they’re now down 9.7% from April.

It’s the first drop after months of growth in these imports, and reflects the impacts of large-scale tariff changes, as well as the removal of the de minimis exemption for China imports.

The same container volumes are also down 7.2% from this time last year, and month-over-month numbers have dropped even further for China imports specifically, falling by 20.8%.

Lowest Monthly Total Since March 2024

By any measure, shipments are down. In fact, total container volumes in May added up to the lowest monthly total since March 2024.

The new stats come from Descartes Systems Group and its Global Shipping Report. The month of May 2025 ended just over a week ago, and its this month that the report focuses on. What’s behind the decrease? Frontloaded cargo and tariff impacts, according to the report.

“The drop followed a wave of frontloading in April and reflects a broader adjustment to shifting trade policies, including the expiration of the de minimis exemption and ongoing tariff volatility. Although the U.S. lowered tariffs on goods imported from China to 30% under a 90-day truce effective May 14, most imports that arrived in May were booked under the earlier, higher rates.” -the Global Shipping Report

Higher Monthly Drop Than the 2020 Pandemic

Historically, shipping volumes jump up between April and May, according to Descartes, which notes that 2025 is the first year out of the last seven years to see a month-over-month decline between these two months, with one exception: The 2020 pandemic.

Even in 2020, though, shipping volumes only dropped by 8.2%, a percentage that was just beaten by the 9.7% decrease the nation experienced last month.

Back in April, we covered a prediction from the ITS Logistics’ Port Rail Ramp Index, which stated that cargo operators should plan for a change in May or June. The index called it a “cliff event similar to the impacts felt during the immediate COVID response.”

Now, we have data on May shipments, and they have indeed fallen farther than the pandemic months of April and May.

What’s in the Future?

This news is certainly not unexpected. Higher tariffs mean that vendors are finding shipments to be costlier, and in many cases are pivoting to a new product or strategy entirely. Others are still taking a wait-and-see approach.

Future shipment volumes remain to be seen, but they seem likely to continue the current trend. We’ll keep seeing the ripple effects of the higher tariffs for months to come.

US Container Imports Just Dropped 10% From the Last Month

In other news, a worrying European drought. Approx. 2.5 minutes.

Half Of Europe Hit By Drought In May | WION Climate Tracker

Half Of Europe Hit By Drought In May | WION Climate Tracker - YouTube

To widen the market and to narrow the competition, is always the interest of the dealers…The proposal of any new law or regulation of commerce which comes from this order, ought always to be listened to with great precaution, and ought never to be adopted till after having been long and carefully examined, not only with the most scrupulous, but with the most suspicious attention. It comes from an order of men, whose interest is never exactly the same with that of the public, who have generally an interest to deceive and even oppress the public, and who accordingly have, upon many occasions, both deceived and oppressed it.

Adam Smith, The Wealth Of Nations, 19 March 1776.

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

UK retail sales growth slowed in May, casting doubt on consumer resilience

Shoppers traded down to cheaper items, especially in non-food areas such as clothing

9 June 2025
UK retail spending growth slowed to its weakest pace this year in May, according to new data, casting doubt on the strength of consumer resilience.

The value of retail sales increased at an annual rate of 1 per cent in May, the lowest rate in 2025 and well below the average of 2.5 per cent between January and May, according to figures published by the British Retail Consortium on Tuesday.

The figure also lagged behind the April inflation rate of 3.4 per cent, suggesting a fall in real-terms spending.

Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium, said consumers had “put the brakes on spending”, especially on non-food items such as fashion and full price, big-ticket purchases, held back “by lower consumer confidence”.

However, food sales had remained steady, helped by several major football tournaments, while gaming had also performed well because of popular new releases, she added.

Official data showed that in the three months to April, the inflation-adjusted sales rose 1.8 per cent compared with the previous three months, the fastest rate since July 2021. However, the BRC data suggest that the figures for May, published on June 20, could be weaker.

In the first three months of the year, the UK economy grew more than expected at 0.7 per cent, but economists, including at the Bank of England, expect the pace to slow in the second quarter.

Linda Ellett, UK head of consumer, retail and leisure at KPMG, which helps compile the BRC data, said sunny weather had meant some shoppers made seasonal purchases early, contributing to a slowdown in sales growth in May. She added that spending appetite was also damped after households were hit by a rise in essential bills in April.

The BRC figures chime with those from Barclays, which on Tuesday reported consumer credit and debit card spending growing by an annual rate of only 1 per cent, also below the latest pace of inflation.

Card spending on clothing rose just 0.9 per cent in May while transactions in the sector were up 3.8 per cent, which Barclays said indicated shoppers were switching to cheaper items or brands. Spending on electronics and home improvement contracted.

Barclays’ head of retail, Karen Johnson, said shoppers were “becoming more value-conscious”, balancing essential spending with small luxuries such as cinema trips, garden projects or short breaks. And while sunshine in the first half of the month helped sales, “longer-term uncertainty continues to shape how and where people choose to spend”, she added.

UK retail sales growth slowed in May, casting doubt on consumer resilience

Recession Risk After The Jobs Report

Jun 08, 2025, 09:19am EDT

---- Recession Indicators

Accurately forecasting an economic downturn in advance with any accuracy is exceptionally challenging. However, in an environment with tariff threats, monitoring specific high-frequency data can provide an early warning about increased recession risks. These indicators are updated weekly or daily and have shown a strong correlation with economic activity. Indeed, other indicators are crucial, but they are typically only available on a monthly basis, sometimes with a significant time lag. Despite the economic data remaining resilient, consensus estimates of 2025 US GDP growth remain well below the levels seen earlier in the year. Economists generally expect the drag from tariffs to slow economic growth in the second half of the year.

Credit Spreads

Baa corporate bond data has a long history and provides a look at the “typical” credit quality of companies, as Baa credit rating is the lowest level of investment-grade bonds. The spread is the yield that investors demand beyond US Treasury bond rates to compensate for the default risk associated with buying corporate bonds. These spreads expand when investors worry that more bond defaults could be on the horizon, typically driven by deteriorating economic conditions. Spreads on Baa corporate debt are below the highs hit as stocks bottomed in early April. The narrowing of spreads is consistent with a lower risk of economic downturn.

Financial Conditions

The Chicago Fed produces the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) on a weekly basis. It looks at 105 measures across three categories, risk, credit, and leverage, to create a measure of financial conditions. According to the Chicago Fed, “Positive values of the NFCI have been historically associated with tighter-than-average financial conditions, while negative values have been historically associated with looser-than-average financial conditions.” The chart indicates that periods of tighter-than-normal financial conditions have frequently been correlated with recessions. Similar to credit spreads, the tightness of financial conditions has eased from the early-April highs.

Cyclical Stock Performance

The more economically sensitive cyclical stocks have recently been outperforming the less economically sensitive defensive stocks. The improved performance of cyclical stocks suggests that the economic growth scare is waning.

Yield Curve

The 10-year Treasury minus 2-year yield is arguably the most well-known predictor of recession. Historically, when the yield on the US 10-year Treasury falls below the 2-year yield, also known as yield curve inversion, a recession is likely to follow. Since the 1970s, a yield curve inversion has occurred before every recession. The only blemishes on its record are the 1998 and mid-2022 inversions, which did not produce subsequent economic recessions. The US economy did see a significant slowdown in the first half of 2022 but rebounded in the second half. Unfortunately, even when the signal is correct, it has widely variable lead and lag times. The yield curve still has a better predictive track record than economists and is used in nearly every Federal Reserve model; therefore, it is worth watching despite its flaws. The curve is not currently inverted and has generally been steepening instead.

Jobs

The labor market is the most crucial part of the economy since consumer spending eventually wanes without wages to fund the purchases. Initial claims for unemployment benefits are reported weekly, but the four-week moving average of claims is used here to reduce volatility. Initial claims are ticking higher, but the level is not exhibiting a strong uptrend or one consistent with economic woes.

The other weekly job data is ongoing claims for unemployment benefits, which are also off its lows and show a slow uptrend. The uptrend suggests that it is taking longer for those losing their jobs to find new ones. Recall that the number of employees in the US has more than doubled since 1970, so even though the current roster of those receiving unemployment benefits is as high as it was during the 1969-1970 recession, the numbers aren’t comparable. The labor market is softening, but it has not yet reached the tipping point.

The closely watched monthly jobs report was released on Friday. Payroll job growth was slightly better than expected at 139,000, but the previous two months were revised lower. The household survey reported job losses of 696,000, but the labor force contracted by a similar amount, leaving the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2%.

(Emphasis mine.)

Examining the employment of prime working-age people, aged 25 to 54, can provide a good indicator of the labor market’s condition. In addition to being a crucial group, the measure also avoids some of the demographic distortions associated with other methods. Prime-age employment to population ratio fell month-over-month, but using the three-month average to remove volatility, it held steady. The trend appears to be flat to lower, which adds some concern to the outlook.

Overall, job growth is adequate, with the labor market bending lower but not yet breaking. Markets reacted favorably to the monthly jobs report on Friday, indicating less worry about the economic outlook, with US Treasury yields and stocks moving higher.

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Recession Risk After The Jobs Report

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Billion-dollar battery plant pauses construction amid electric vehicle and tariff uncertainty

7 June 2025

A Japanese company has halted construction on a $1.6 billion factory in South Carolina to help make batteries for electric BMWs, citing “policy and market uncertainty.”

While AESC didn't specify what those problems are, South Carolina's Republican governor said the company is dealing with the potential loss of federal tax breaks for electric vehicle buyers and incentives for EV businesses as well as tariff uncertainties from President Donald Trump's administration.

“What we’re doing is urging caution — let things play out because all of the these changes are taking place,” Gov. Henry McMaster said.

AESC announced the suspension in construction of its plant in Florence on Thursday,

“Due to policy and market uncertainty, we are pausing construction at our South Carolina facility at this time," the company's statement said.

AESC promised to restart construction, although it didn't say when, and vowed to meet its commitment to hire 1,600 workers and invest $1.6 billion. The company said it has already invested $1 billion in the Florence plant.

The battery maker based in Japan also has facilities in China, the United Kingdom, France, Spain and Germany. In the U.S., AESC has a plant in Tennessee and is building one in Kentucky. The statement didn't mention any changes with other plants.

The South Carolina plant is supposed to sell battery cells to BMW, which is building its own battery assembly site near its giant auto plant in Greer. BMW said the construction pause by AESC doesn’t change its plans to open its plant in 2026.

AESC has already rolled back its South Carolina plans. They announced a second factory on the Florence site, but then said earlier this year that their first plant should be able to handle BMW's demand. That prompted South Carolina officials to withdraw $111 million in help they planned to provide.

The company is still getting $135 million in grants from the South Carolina Department of Commerce and $121 million in bonds and the agency said a construction pause won't prompt them to claw back that offer.

South Carolina is investing heavily in electric vehicles. Volkswagen-owned Scout Motors plans to invest more than $4 billion and hire 10,000 people for a plant to build its new electric SUVs scheduled to open in 2027.

The state has for decades made big bets on foreign manufacturers like BMW, Michelin and Samsung that have paid off with an economic boom this century, but there is uneasiness that Trump's flirtation with high tariffs might stagger or even ruin those important partnerships.

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Billion-dollar battery plant pauses construction amid electric vehicle and tariff uncertainty

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

There is no art which one government sooner learns of another than that of draining money from the pockets of the people.

Adam Smith, The Wealth Of Nations, 9 March 1776.