Baltic Dry Index. 1023 -40 Brent Crude 81.64
Spot Gold 2712 US 2 Year Yield 4.23 -0.04
US Federal Debt. 36.360 trillion!
Nothing is easy, but who wants nothing?
Donald Trump.
This is the last weekend in office for the hopelessly ineffective outgoing Team Biden.
In on Monday, the highly erratic, bombastic, enemy of friend and foe alike, tariff Team Trump.
We are in for an unpredictable, challenging four economic years.
Asia-Pacific markets mixed after China’s
fourth-quarter GDP beats estimates
Updated Fri, Jan 17 2025 12:28 AM EST
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Friday
as investors parse a slew of economic data out of China.
China’s economy expanded
by 5% year on year in 2024, with an upswing in the final quarter of the
year. The country’s fourth-quarter GDP beat expectations with a 5.4% growth.
China’s retail sales in December jumped
3.7% from a year earlier, exceeding Reuters’ forecast of 3.5%. Industrial
output expanded 6.2% from a year earlier, versus expectations of 5.4%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index traded 0.23%
higher, and mainland China’s CSI 300 rose 0.63%. The offshore yuan strengthened
0.06% to 7.3419 against the greenback.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.54%,
while the Topix lost 0.46%. South Korea’s Kospi traded 0.26% lower
while the Kosdaq shed 0.18%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dipped 0.2%
to close at 8,310.4.
Overnight in the U.S., the major averages
gave up gains from earlier in the day with the S&P 500 slipping to end a
three-day winning streak as big tech shares pulled back.
The broad market index slid 0.21% to
5,937.34. The tech-heavy Nasdaq
Composite dropped 0.89% to 19,338.29. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell
68.42 points, or 0.16%, to 43,153.13.
Asia
markets live: China GDP, industrial output, retail sales
CNBC Daily Open: Apple’s fall overshadows positive
bank earnings
Published Thu, Jan 16 2025 7:51 PM EST
S&P 500 snaps three-day winning streak
U.S. markets fell
on Thursday, with the S&P
500 snapping its three-day winning streak. Treasury yields retreated
further on waning inflation fears. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index added
0.98%. Richemont jumped
16% after reporting a better-than-expected 10%
increase in fiscal third-quarter sales, pushing up other stocks in the
luxury sector.
Apple falls
Apple shares slumped 4% on
Thursday, with losses nearly
at 12% from the stock’s most recent peak in December. The slide comes
after a report Thursday from market research firm Canalys said the iPhone maker
had fallen to third place in terms of smartphones sold in China in 2024, behind
homegrown manufacturers Vivo and Huawei.
Potential U.S. Treasury secretary
testifies
Scott Bessent, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for Treasury
secretary, testified
Thursday before the Senate Finance Committee. During the session, Bessent,
a hedge-fund manager, said Trump’s proposed policies won’t
cause inflation, described U.S. spending as “out
of control,” and threw cold water on the idea of a possible U.S.
digital currency.
Meager economic growth in UK
The U.K.
economy grew 0.1% in November, data from the Office of National Statistics
showed Thursday. The growth was lower than the 0.2% month-on-month expansion
expected in a Reuters poll. The disappointing gross domestic product figure is
fueling expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rate at its
next meeting on Feb. 6.
More
CNBC
Daily Open: Apple’s fall overshadows positive bank earnings
Trump tariffs on Canada could jeopardize oil and
gas exports to U.S., says trade chief
Published Thu, Jan 16 2025 4:37 PM EST
If President-elect Donald Trump follows through
with his threat to impose
tariffs on Canadian goods, Ottawa is prepared to retaliate with levies that
could take aim at the energy sector, Canada’s minister of international trade,
Mary Ng, said Thursday.
“Everything is on the table,” Ng told
global markets reporter Seema
Mody on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.”
This includes dollar-to-dollar
retaliation. Canada’s trade chief also refused to rule out an export tax
on Canadian
oil and gas bound for the United States.
“I don’t actually think Americans want us
to not be selling electricity, oil and gas to America, because you know, I’m
here in New York, the lights on Broadway, lots of it is Canadian electricity,”
said Ng.
“If you’re going to put tariffs on Canada,
what it actually will do is make things more expensive for Americans,” she
added.
Trump has
threatened a 25% blanket tariff on all Canadian exports when he takes
office Monday. The threat is similar to one made towards Mexico, the
three parties to the USMCA trade agreement. Trump has also talked about
increasing tariffs on Chinese imports by 10%.
Canada and the United States have a trade
relationship that is practically unrivaled. In 2022, Canada was the largest purchaser of American goods and the
third-largest exporter of goods to the U.S.
Ng and her team are currently drafting a
list of U.S. exports to Canada that could see additional tariffs in the event
that trade tensions escalate. “Everything is going to be on the table,” she
said.
The same goes for Canadian goods that
enter the United States.
“You can pretty much be sure that if
you’re buying something [at a] supermarket... think about a candy bar. There’s
probably some Canadian in there. So if you’re paying $4 today, you might be
paying $5 tomorrow,” said Ng.
The potential threat of a looming trade
war with the United States is also prompting Ottawa to continue engaging with
the rest of its trade partners around the globe, including Japan and the
European Union.
More
Trump tariffs: Canada's trade chief warns oil and gas exports could be in play
In other news.
India is staring at an oil shock as U.S. sanctions
on Russian crude loom
Published Fri, Jan 17 2025 1:06 AM EST
India’s days of buying cheap Russian oil
could be over.
Sweeping sanctions by the U.S. against
Russia’s energy companies and operators of vessels that transport oil will
complicate Indian efforts to keep importing cheap Russian crude and could push
up inflation in Asia’s third-largest economy, analysts said.
The country could be looking at a
potential oil shock, said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group.
“India will be more affected than China by
sanctions, since India imports much greater amount of its oil from Russia than
China,” he told CNBC.
Last Friday, the U.S.
Treasury announced sanctions on two Russian oil producers, along with 183
vessels which are primarily oil tankers that have been shipping barrels of
Russian crude. At present, tankers sanctioned by the U.S. are still permitted
to offload crude oil until March 12.
The South Asian nation imported a significant 88% of its oil needs between
April and November 2024, little changed from a year earlier, according to
government data. Around 40% of those imports came from Russia, data from trade
intelligence firm Kpler showed.
Out of the newly sanctioned 183 tankers,
75 of them have transported Russian oil to India in the past, according to data
provided by Kpler. Just last year alone, the 183 sanctioned tankers transported
around 687 million barrels of crude, of which 30% were shipped to India.
“Most of these barrels went to Indian
refiners and, hence, the impact will likely be largest there,” BNP Paribas’
senior commodities strategist Aldo Spanier said in a research note following
the sanctions.
The new U.S. sanctions were deeper and
broader than foreseen by markets, and the disruptions are expected to amplify,
Spanier added.
More
India
is staring at an oil shock as sanctions on Russian crude loom
Unburned home in Pacific Palisades is damaged by
landslide, highlighting new risk in wildfire zones
BySid Garcia
Thursday, January 16, 2025 8:21PM
LOS ANGELES (KABC) -- Fierce winds
and devastating
wildfires have shifted land in the burn areas of the Eaton and
Palisades fires, raising the risk of landslides and debris flows, the director
of the Los Angeles County Department of Public Works said Thursday.
At a morning news conference, Los Angeles
County Department of Public Works Director Mark Pestrella was asked about a
landslide that severely damaged a house in Pacific Palisades after the
Palisades Fire began.
"Both areas suffered watershed damage
... to such a significance that we expect massive debris-laden flows when it
rains," Pestrella said.
The home in question, which sits above the
Pacific Coast Highway, apparently emerged from the fire unscathed but sustained
other major damage - it was seen in aerial and ground footage effectively split
in half.
The Los Angeles Fire Department and its
damage assessment teams are still trying to figure out what exactly happened.
"If you look right above (the home)
you're going to see a lot of smoldering debris and things that have
burned," said LAFD Capt. Erik Scott. "It's apparent the
infrastructure is absolutely compromised... the water is still flowing from the
area... It's damaged so significantly that is has been red-tagged.
More
‘Very, very cold’: Inauguration temperatures will
be lowest since 1985
January 16, 2025, 4:20 AM
It will be bitterly cold for
President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration Monday as temperatures dip well
below average for this time of year in the D.C. area.
The weather forecast calls for a chance of
snow Sunday followed by gusty winds and high temperatures only around 20
degrees.
“We’re going to have dangerously cold
temperatures with low wind chills,” said Brian LaSorsa, meteorologist with the
National Weather Service.
By late morning, temperatures will likely
be going from the teens to the low to middle 20s for the actual air
temperature.
The hundreds of thousands of people in
town for the inauguration will feel strong wind blowing almost constantly
throughout the day.
“We’re looking at winds about 15 to 20
miles per hour with gusts 25 to 30 miles per hour,” LaSorsa said. “When you
combine that with the very cold air temperatures, that’s what’s going to cause
the dangerously low wind chill values.”
The wind chill will be in the single
digits to lower teens.
“It’s going to be very, very cold,”
LaSorsa said. “Our average high for what it’s worth is in the upper 30s, so
we’ll be well below average for this time of year.”
More
‘Very, very cold’: Inauguration temperatures will be lowest since 1985 - WTOP News
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
UK
economy grows just 0.1 per cent following Budget
Thursday
16 January 2025 7:05 am | Updated: Thursday 16
January 2025 8:20 am
The UK economy grew at a
slower pace than expected in the month after the Budget, new figures show,
raising fears that the Chancellor’s plans have contributed to economic
stagnation.
Gross
domestic product (GDP) increased 0.1 per cent in November, according to the
Office for National Statistics (ONS), which was slower than the 0.2 per cent
expansion predicted by City experts.
The
dominant services sector grew 0.1 per cent, led by healthcare and social work,
while there was positive news in consumer-facing services, which grew 0.5 per
cent having contracted in October. Construction output also rose 0.4 per cent.
This
offset a 0.4 per cent decline in industrial production, with manufacturing,
mining and water supply activities all dropping month-on-month.
Although
weaker than expected, the figures confirm that the economy returned to
expansion after two consecutive 0.1 per cent contractions in September and
October.
But
it still means the economy showed no growth in the three months to November,
compared to the prior quarter.
“The
economy continues to be broadly flat, having grown slightly in November
following two small falls in the previous months,” Liz McKeown, director of
economic statistics at the ONS said.
“Services
grew a little, with wholesaling, pubs & restaurants and IT companies all
doing well, partially offset by falls in accountancy and business rental &
leasing.”
The
figures will likely do little to quiet criticism of Chancellor Rachel Reeves,
amid accusations that the government’s economic agenda has stymied growth.
Economic
momentum has ground to a halt since Labour took office while business
confidence has also fallen sharply, particularly in the wake of October’s
Budget.
Including
November’s figures, the UK economy has grown in only two of the last six
months.
“Such
an anaemic pace of growth is hardly worth celebrating,” Michael Brown, chief
research strategist at Pepperstone said.
Business
surveys from the end of last year point to a further slowdown in activity as
firms brace for the impact of the national insurance hike.
---- The figures
come at a precarious point for the UK gilt market, which has suffered a
bruising sell-off since the turn of the year driven in part by concerns about
the UK’s lacklustre growth outlook.
The
yield on benchmark 10-year gilt hit its highest level since the financial
crisis last week, which could potentially force the Chancellor into further
spending cuts later in the year.
However,
pressure on gilts eased following the publication of December’s inflation
report yesterday.
Inflation
unexpectedly fell last
month, dipping to 2.5 per cent. This contributed to a rebound in the gilt
market, as traders anticipated further interest rate cuts.
UK economy grows just 0.1 per cent following Budget
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Bereaved
families criticise Covid-19 vaccine rollout at public inquiry
Family
members of those who died after contracting Covid-19 gave evidence to the
public inquiry on Wednesday.
Rosie Shead Wednesday 15 January 2025 16:27 GMT
Bereaved
families have criticised the “haphazard” rollout of the coronavirus vaccine,
including concerns over who was classed a key worker and access for rural
communities.
At
the UK Covid-19 inquiry on Wednesday, campaigners whose family members died
after contracting the virus discussed issues related to the vaccination
programme including disparities in how it was implemented across different
areas of the UK.
Fiona
Clarke, representing the Northern Ireland Covid-19 Bereaved Families for
Justice, was asked by counsel to the inquiry Daniel Mansell about her witness
statement where she highlighted that in June 2021 the Government in England indicated vaccines would
become compulsory for care home staff but that this approach was not adopted by
the devolved government in Northern Ireland.
“It
was so haphazard. Nobody knew what the other one was doing,” she replied.
Ms
Clarke, who was previously taken to hospital with Covid and whose mother died aged 90
after testing positive for the virus in January 2021, went on to say she
thought there should have been a different approach for vaccinating those in
rural communities.
She
said: “They should have had a mobile, a doctor on call to go out and administer
the medication, administer the vaccines, it would have been so much more
helpful.”
Giving
evidence, Melanie Newdick, whose mother died after contracting Covid-19,
criticised disparities in the speed of the vaccine rollout across the different
parts of the UK, including Scotland.
When
vaccines began at the end of 2020, there was a “fast pace” of delivery, which
then “slowed”, she said.
Ms
Newdick, who travelled 600 miles to represent the group Scottish Covid Bereaved
at the hearing in London, said: “The part of Scotland where
I live, which is a very remote part of Scotland, the delivery slowed because
Christmas came, so some people didn’t get the vaccine as early as they could,
which could have had impacts for them as well, and we also had the situation
where people missed their opportunity to get vaccinations because they were in
hospital which seems incredible, really, when you think about it.”
Ms
Newdick went on to raise concerns about the current system for arranging
vaccines in Scotland, saying “very few” patients can access immunisations via
their GP, after changes made in April 2023 and, instead, these are administered
at vaccination clinics.
She
said of the system: “We have to ring the health board, or we have to go online,
and we have to find a clinic to go for that vaccination. We can’t go to the GP
for any vaccination, not a tetanus, not a childhood vaccination, not a flu, not
a Covid, nothing.”
She
continued: “It doesn’t work for a remote rural community – who is going to
drive 220 miles to get a vaccine?
More
Bereaved families criticise Covid-19 vaccine rollout at public inquiry | The Independent
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
ADNOC Gas
explores technology that turns methane into graphene, hydrogen
16
January 2025
Abu
Dhabi: ADNOC Gas plc, in partnership with Baker Hughes - an energy technology
company - announced they have successfully installed British climate technology
firm Levidian’s patented LOOP technology at the Habshan Gas Processing Plant.
This
marks the first-ever deployment of the technology at an operational gas
processing site. Carbon will be captured from methane, the main constituent of
natural gas, and transformed into graphene, a material set to shape the future
of multiple industrial applications.
The
graphene produced at the Habshan complex will be evaluated and utilised by
ADNOC’s Technology team to explore possible applications. Graphene has the
potential to be used across industries from enhancing the performance of
electric vehicle batteries and solar panels to creating stronger, more durable
materials such as concrete, tires, and polymer pipes.
The
LOOP unit is capable of producing more than 1 tonne per annum (tpa) of graphene
and 1 tpa of hydrogen, making it a dual-purpose innovation aligned with global
energy transition goals. Future industrial-scale installations are expected to
deliver 15 tpa.
Mohamed
Al Hashemi, COO of ADNOC Gas, said, "The deployment of LOOP technology is
a significant milestone for ADNOC Gas. By transforming methane into valuable
graphene and clean hydrogen, we are unlocking new value from natural gas,
driving decarbonisation and supporting the UAE’s industrial growth and climate
ambitions. This project reflects our dedication to shaping a more sustainable
energy future while delivering tangible benefits for the industries we
serve."
Data
collected during the pilot will be used to refine the ongoing development of AI
modelling and digital twins to minimise energy consumption and maximise
graphene output from future installations as part of Levidian’s growing fleet
of LOOP units.
Alessandro
Bresciani, Senior Vice President Climate Technology Solutions at Baker Hughes,
said, “This project demonstrates once more how the collaboration between Baker
Hughes and ADNOC Gas unlocks the potential of new decarbonisationn
technologies.”
He
added, “Bringing innovation from startups and research labs into the reality of
complex industrial sites requires technical skills and the highest level of
collaboration and focus on health, safety and environment. We are delighted to
have brought Levidian's technology into ADNOC Gas’ Habshan plant, as part of
our company’s long-term focus in bringing to market and scaling up innovative
solutions for our customers."
John
Hartley, CEO of Levidian, said, “We’re seeing huge appetite within the market
for our graphene and are excited to be working with Baker Hughes and ADNOC to
unlock a new source of this super-material, which will help establish Levidian
as one of the world’s largest producers of graphene that is less carbon
intensive, more affordable and of a consistently higher quality than anything
available on the market today."
ADNOC Gas explores
technology that turns methane into graphene, hydrogen
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Another
weekend and the last weekend of team Biden. Few outside of the USA and Israel will
lament Team Biden’s passing, but will bombastic, erratic Team Trump be better or
worse? Have a great weekend everyone.
The
final key to the way I promote is bravado. I play to people's fantasies. People
may not always think big themselves, but they can still get very excited by
those who do. That's why a little hyperbole never hurts.
Donald
Trump.
