Baltic Dry Index. 2051 +43 Brent Crude 66.26
Spot Gold 3378 US 2 Year Yield 3.76 +0.04
US Federal Debt. 37.216 trillion
US GDP 30.193 trillion.
By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.
John Maynard Keynes
It is the silly season once again, as is all too evident in stock casino pricing.
As Trump’s tariff war on the rest of the world increasingly takes effect, what could possibly go wrong?
Plenty, thinks Warren Buffett as he continues to sell out of stocks and pile into US Treasuries.
Tomorrow and Thursday, the latest US inflation figures.
Whoever is compiling the latest numbers will probably be thinking about how the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics got fired recently for presenting numbers that angered President Trump. Argentina here we come.
Asia-Pacific markets subdued as U.S.-China tariff
truce deadline looms
Updated Mon, Aug 11 2025 11:23 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets were trading subdued
Monday as investors awaited official announcement on whether the Aug. 12
deadline for U.S.–China tariff truce would be extended.
CATL halts production at key lithium mine
after license lapses
Shares of Contemporary Amperex Technology
(CATL), China’s leading battery producer, traded flat after it announced that it had stopped operations at a major
lithium mine after its license expired.
The Yichun mine in Jiangxi province saw its license lapse on August 9, said
CATL. The firm is working to secure a renewal “as soon as possible,” adding
that production will resume once approved.
—Lee Ying Shan
Australia central bank is expected to cut
rates by 25 points
Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower its cash
rate by 25 basis points to 3.60% on Aug. 12, after surprising that market by
holding rates in July.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia, which
participated in the survey, cited in a separate note that RBA’s concerns around
market services and durable goods inflation were “largely squashed.”
“The all‑important Q2 25 CPI data has come
and gone and confirmed the disinflation impulse in the Australian economy,” CBA
economists added.
Australia’s headline inflation rate in the
second quarter of the year came in at 2.1% year over year, slipping to
its lowest point since March 2021.
—Lee Ying Shan
China markets open higher as U.S.-China
tariff truce deadline nears
China markets opened marginally higher as
traders kept an eye out for indicators that the Aug. 12 deadline for U.S.–China
tariff truce would be extended.
The mainland’s benchmark CSI 300 climbed
0.13%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index inched 0.07% higher.
Morgan Stanley said in a note that the
Hong Kong market is likely to “resume its momentum” some time after the summer,
assuming improved clarity on the U.S.-China trade relations, as well as the
reveal of the next five-year growth plan for China.
—Lee Ying Shan
South Korea, Australia markets start the
trading day mixed
South Korea and Australia markets started
the trading day mixed. South Korea’s Kospi as well as the
small-cap Kosdaq were trading flat.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 inched 0.43%
higher. The Australian central bank is scheduled to announce its interest-rate
decision on Tuesday.
—Lee Ying Shan
Asia
markets live: RBA meeting, Kospi, CSI 300
Stock futures tick higher ahead of key
inflation data expected this week: Live updates
Updated Sun, Aug 10 2025 6:17 PM EDT
U.S. stock futures inched higher Sunday
night, with the market once again on the cusp
of all-time highs ahead of a week
of key inflation reports.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose
by 56 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.1%
and 0.1%, respectively.
Those moves come after the Nasdaq
Composite ended
last week at fresh closing highs, and the S&P 500 closed on the
threshold of another milestone. The Dow also finished the week on a high note.
A rally in Apple — which has been a significant laggard this year — helped
bolster the market.
The latest advance has some investors
wondering how much longer the stock market can skirt pitfalls, given sky-high
valuations, a dimming macroeconomic outlook, and tariff fallout all during a
period of seasonal weakness.
“We are probably going to be more in a
digestion phase than anything else,” said Jay Woods, chief global strategist at
Freedom Capital Markets. He added, “We may get a little bit of sideways action
in this market, which is not a bad thing.”
Inflation readings this week will prove a
key hurdle for a broad market index near record highs. The consumer price
index, which is set to be released Tuesday, and the producer price index, due
out Thursday, will be critical in shaping the outlook for the direction of
interest rates, especially for the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. Hotter
inflation prints could hinder the market’s advance.
“The most important thing is the CPI
data,” Woods said. “That will definitely dictate monetary policy.”
The inflation data comes ahead of the
Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting in Wyoming on Aug. 21-23, which will likely set the
tone for the September meeting.
Stock
market today: Live updates
Wall Street Week Ahead
Aug. 10, 2025 6:23 AM ET
Wall Street's focus this week will be on
key inflation data and on any further developments around trade and Russia and
Ukraine.
A busy economic calendar will take center stage, with the July consumer price
index and producer price index reports due on Tuesday and Thursday,
respectively. Market participants and monetary policymakers will be keeping a
close eye on the data for any effects of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs
on consumer and producer prices. Friday will see the retail sales reading for July.
The main event on Friday will be a scheduled meeting between Trump and Russian
President Vladimir Putin. Trump has expressed hope that a truce could be near
and could involve "some swapping of territories" between Russia
and Ukraine, a proposal that Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy
contested. WTI crude oil futures (CL1:COM) will be on
watch.
Turning to the earnings season, Dow 30 component Cisco (CSCO) will headline
another busy few days of quarterly results.
Wall Street Week
Ahead | Seeking Alpha
At 207%, the Warren Buffett indicator says the
stock market could crash!
August 10, 2025
Billionaire investor Warren Buffett has
shared a lot of wisdom throughout his successful career. However, one gem to
come off his desk is the Buffett Indicator – a simple comparison of the US
stock market’s total value divided by US GDP.
As Buffett puts it, the indicator is “probably
the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment”. And
for value investors, knowing when the stock market is overpriced is a powerful
advantage, even when relying only on index
funds.
However, looking at the Buffett Indicator
today might cause some concern.
US stocks are expensive
Historically, his Indicator has sat
between 90% and 135%. This healthy range generally indicates that US stocks are
fairly-to-slightly overvalued and presents an ideal window of opportunity to
top up on investments. But following the tremendous artificial intelligence
(AI)-driven returns of 2023 and 2024, the indicator’s been rising. So much so
that it now sits at a whopping 207%!
That’s the highest it’s ever been since
records began in the 1970s. And it’s even higher than the 194% peak seen in
late 2021, right before US stocks experienced one of the most severe market
corrections seen in over a decade.
That would certainly explain why Buffett
and his team at investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway have been busy selling
stocks lately. In fact, the firm just marked its 11th consecutive quarter of
being a net seller, with positions such as Bank of America, Citigroup,
and Capital One all getting trimmed, or outright sold off.
So could another stock market downturn be
just around the corner?
More
At 207%, the
Warren Buffett indicator says the stock market could crash!
Up next, who would want to be a commodities
copper trader?
Chile's Codelco gets approval from labor inspector
to restart El Teniente operations
9 August 2025
SANTIAGO (Reuters) - Copper miner Codelco
received authorization from Chile's labor inspector office to begin resuming
certain operations at its flagship El Teniente copper mine, it said on
Saturday, after more than a week of suspended operations following a deadly
collapse that killed six workers.
In a statement, Codelco said operations
can resume in areas not affected by the July 31 collapse, including Pilar
Norte, Panel Esmeralda, Pacifico Superior, Diablo Regimiento, and others, while
sections such as Recursos Norte and Andesita remain suspended, pending further
inspections.
The decision allows Codelco, the world's
largest copper producer, to partially restart activities at one of its key
divisions, potentially easing operational disruptions.
Chile's mining regulator had given the
green light for a partial restart on Friday evening, but the company needed the
labor inspection office to sign off on the plan before resuming mining activity
at a time when the miner grapples with production challenges.
The El Teniente division is expected to
announce its detailed plan for restarting operations along with safety measures
to ensure compliance with labor authority requirements. Inspections in
suspended areas will continue before a full restart can be authorized.
El Teniente, which is more than a century
old, spans more than 4,500 km (2,800 miles) of tunnels and underground
galleries deep within the Andes mountains.
Chile's Codelco
gets approval from labor inspector to restart El Teniente operations
Chile copper mine damage worse than first
thought, inspection shows
August 8, 2025 | 10:14 am
Inspections have shown damage to 3,700
meters (12,000 feet) of tunnel at the El Teniente mine in Chile, according to
the Public Prosecutor’s Office. That would be five times more than initial
calculations of 300 meters with severe damage and another 400 meters with
moderate damage given by the state-owned company.
Damage was identified not only in
Andesita, a new section of the mine scheduled to ramp up over the coming years,
but also in the Recursos Norte section, Aquiles Cubillos, regional prosecutor
of O’Higgins, told reporters Thursday.
Damage at Recursos Norte, which began
producing in early 2020, may restrict Codelco’s plans to resume mining at older
areas of the complex. The collapse is a major setback for the company’s effort
to recover from a yearslong slump and threatens to further tighten a copper
market already disrupted by the threat of tariffs and stoppages at other mines.
Codelco declined to comment further on
Friday, citing an active
investigation into
the incident that killed six people and injured nine.
(By James Attwood)
Chile copper mine
damage worse than first thought, inspection shows - MINING.COM
Or a commodities silver or gold trader?
HSBC raises silver price outlook on gold strength,
geopolitical risks
8 August 2025
(Reuters) -HSBC has lifted its silver
price forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027, citing strong support from high gold
prices and safe-haven demand in the face of geopolitical and economic
uncertainty.
The bank now expects average silver prices
of $35.14 per ounce in 2025, up from $30.28 previously, $33.96 in 2026, against
an earlier forecast of $26.95, and $31.79 in 2027, versus $28.30 formerly.
While silver prices have surged, HSBC
cautioned that the rally is "due more to silver's relationship with gold
than (to) underlying fundamentals", with record-high gold exerting a
"strong gravitational pull" on silver.
Spot gold prices are up 29% so far this
year after hitting a record $3,500 per ounce in April with the U.S. and China
in the midst of a full-blown trade war, which triggered moves into safe-haven
assets.
HSBC said that after four years of
record-high growth, industrial demand for silver may edge lower this year,
although any declines are likely to be limited. It said demand would likely
recover in 2026, driven by key sectors such as the photovoltaic industry and
electronics.
----On the supply side, silver mine
output continues to rise at a modest pace, HSBC said.
The bank's supply-demand model projects a
silver deficit of 206 million ounces in 2025, widening from a 167 million ounce
deficit in 2024. That is expected to narrow to 126 million ounces in 2026.
HSBC also said a weaker U.S. dollar this
year, as forecast by HSBC research, is silver positive, while ongoing debates
over Federal Reserve rate cuts and central bank policies could impact prices
going forward.
HSBC raises silver
price outlook on gold strength, geopolitical risks
White House to issue order ‘clarifying’ tariff on
gold bars
Move follows surge in precious metal’s
price after FT revealed US levy on imports
PublishedAug 8 2025 UpdatedAug 8 2025,
20:44
Donald Trump will issue an executive order
“clarifying” the US’s stance on gold bar tariffs, after a ruling that a
widely-traded form of the precious metal is subject to levies sent shockwaves
through the bullion market.
“The White House intends to issue an
executive order in the near future clarifying misinformation about the
tariffing of gold bars and other speciality products,” a White House official
said on Friday.
On Thursday, the Customs and Border
Protection agency had published a ruling, which was first reported by the
Financial Times, saying one-kilo and 100-ounce gold bars should be classified
with a customs code that is subject to tariffs. Its decision stood in sharp
contrast to a previous White House statement in April that bullion would be
exempt from Trump’s levies.
Gold for December delivery dropped by 1
per cent to $3,460 per troy ounce on Friday after the FT reported on the White
House’s plan to clarify its tariff. The precious metal had jumped to a record
high earlier after the US blindsided the global bullion market by imposing
tariffs on imports of one-kilo and 100-ounce bars — a staple in the global
precious metals market.
The London Bullion Market Association,
which represents large institutional gold traders and banks, said on Friday
evening that it was “seeking clarification” from US authorities.
The US Comex is the world’s largest
financial market for bullion, but to function efficiently the market relies on
having unfettered access to the physical gold market centred on London — which
would be threatened by any levies, according to market participants.
Many in the gold industry have questioned
whether the CBP ruling, which was written in response to an inquiry from a
Swiss refiner, could have been a bureaucratic mistake.
“The US has to decide if the White House was
wrong in April, or if the CBP is wrong now,” said one executive.
Switzerland was dealt a particularly heavy
blow as a result of the US’s tariffs decision, since the country is the world’s
largest refining hub.
The tariff ruling would “negatively
impact” the flow of physical gold around the world, noted the Swiss Association
of Manufacturers and Traders in Precious Metals Association in a statement on
Friday.
More
White House to
issue order ‘clarifying’ tariff on gold bars
In other news, AI is coming for (mostly)
white collar jobs.
The next jobs downturn could mean an AI-induced
purge of millions of workers
Aug 6, 2025
The big picture: In the last
several economic cycles, recessions have been a period in which companies
opportunistically ramped up their use of automation to lower their long-term
need for workers.
- If
that pattern holds, AI-driven productivity gains and job losses are likely
to be more severe in any bumpy period for the overall economy.
- If
last week's soft
jobs report and negative revisions turn out to be an early warning
sign of a broader labor market downturn, this moment of rapid
technological change could make it particularly painful.
Zoom out: When times turn
tough, it heightens the urgency for companies seeking to use technology to
supplant expensive labor.
- U.S.
manufacturing employment fell 26% from 2000 to 2019, for example, in
significant part due to productivity-enhancing automation.
- But
it was not anything close to a straight line. Rather, there were steep
declines in the 2001 recession and its aftermath and then in the 2008
recession and its aftermath. Manufacturing employment was steadier between
those episodes.
- If
AI eventually replaces many white-collar jobs, that pattern suggests the
impact on the job market would be most intense during a period of economic
weakness.
Between the lines: This dynamic helps
explain why the 1991, 2001 and 2008 recessions experienced long,
"jobless" recoveries in which employment did not rebound nearly as
quickly as GDP did.
- In
those downturns, output bounced back but unemployment remained elevated
for years.
What they're saying: "[W]e think
that during the course of the next recession the speed and the breadth of the
adoption of the AI tools and applications in the workplace might induce large
scale displacement for occupations that consist of primarily non-routine
cognitive tasks," wrote Murat Tasci, a senior U.S. economist at JPMorgan,
in a note.
- "If
firms face a costly adaptation process for automation to replace workers,
then the cost of adjustment comes down during recessions when the
opportunity cost of not producing is relatively low," Tasci added.
More
AI might purge
millions of workers in next jobs downturn, recession
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
US
Dollar Devaluation: A Global Currency Collapse Is Coming
Lena Petrova Aug 10, 2025
The
Coming Global Currency Crisis: Why the World's Strongest Economies Are On the
Brink
In
a world shaped by decades of economic growth, fiscal stimulus, and cheap
borrowing, we now find ourselves at a moment few thought possible: the most
powerful economies on Earth are standing on the edge of a global currency
crisis. Unlike the isolated collapses seen in emerging markets throughout the
20th century, this time it's different—and more dangerous.
This
crisis isn’t brewing in some fragile developing country. It’s centered in the
core of the global financial system: the G7. The United States, Canada, the
United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan—all once hailed as pillars of
fiscal stability—now carry
sovereign debt levels that
exceed the size of their economies. For the first time in modern history, all
seven are simultaneously vulnerable.
Economists
are beginning to refer to this group as the “D-7”—a dark rebranding that
reflects their unsustainable debt-to-GDP ratios, aggressive monetary policies,
and a system under extreme strain. What makes this situation so unprecedented
is that it’s happening in a high-interest-rate environment. In 2020, borrowing
was essentially free. Today, it's anything but.
The
Debt Spiral and Interest Rate Shock
The
roots of this crisis lie in the aftermath of two historic shocks: the 2008
global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. In both cases, governments
flooded the economy with stimulus, taking on massive amounts of new debt to
stabilize financial systems. But what was manageable in a low-rate world has
now become a ticking time bomb due to the cost of servicing that debt.
In
the United States, 30-year Treasury bond yields are nearing 5%. Other G7 nations
face similar scenarios. Governments are rolling over trillions in maturing
bonds and locking in dramatically higher interest payments. Investors are
growing anxious. Cracks in the system are beginning to show.
But
the problem isn’t just the size of the debt. It’s the speed at which the cost
of debt is rising—and the increasing likelihood that central banks and
governments will be forced into drastic action.
How
Currency Crises Begin
The
early warning signs are flashing red. When investors lose faith in a
government's ability to manage its finances, they begin to sell off sovereign
bonds. That triggers a second, more dangerous wave: the selloff of the
country’s currency. This is how currency collapses begin.
We've
seen this before. France in the 1950s. The UK in the 1960s. Italy in the 1990s.
Thailand, South Korea, and Indonesia during the 1997 Asian financial crisis.
The difference now is scale—and interconnection.
The
G-7 countries don’t just carry debt in their own currencies—they also hold
reserves in each other's currencies. If one major economy starts to fall, the
entire system feels the shock. This creates a dangerous feedback loop that
could drag down multiple currencies at once, leading to a cascading global
devaluation.
Inflation,
Devaluation, and the Domino Effect
In
theory, governments have an "escape hatch": they can inflate their
way out of debt. By printing more money, they reduce the real value of what
they owe. But that short-term fix comes at an enormous cost: rising inflation,
falling purchasing power, and the erosion of public trust in the financial
system.
As
inflation spreads, countries are forced to make painful decisions. If the U.S.
dollar begins to fall—whether by policy choice or market forces—other countries
like Canada, Mexico, and China would face immediate pressure to devalue their
currencies just to stay competitive in global trade. This is how a domino
effect forms.
This
isn’t a hypothetical scenario. In 1967, when the UK devalued the pound, several
European countries followed. The same thing happened in Asia in the late '90s.
What’s different now is that we’re not talking about emerging markets—we’re
talking about the global financial core.
More
US Dollar
Devaluation: A Global Currency Collapse Is Coming
Rice
prices plunge to 8-year low after record harvests
9
August 2025
Global
rice prices have tumbled to their lowest level in eight years, in a blow to
many farmers across Asia, as record harvests and the ending of export bans in
India flood the market with supply.
Export
prices for Thai 5 per cent broken white rice, the global benchmark, have
dropped to $372.50 per tonne in recent days, a 26 per cent decline since
late last year and their lowest level since 2017. That extends a slide that
began after India, the world’s largest exporter, started lifting restrictions
on shipments in September 2024.
The
UN’s All Rice Price index is down 13 per cent this year, according to the
body’s Food and Agriculture Organization.
“It’s
that simple: there’s just too much stock,” said Samarendu Mohanty, director of
the Centre for Sustainable Agriculture and Development Studies at Professor
Jayashankar Telangana State Agricultural University. “India’s rice production
last year was a record . The crop they just planted is going to be another
record crop.”
The
price decline marks a sharp reversal from early last year, when rice soared to
its highest level since 2008 after India introduced a series of export
curbs. That sparked a wave of panic buying among consumers and prompted
protectionist measures in other producing countries.
India’s
policy shift late last year, following a record harvest in 2023-24 that swelled
government inventories, was “the main reason” for the dramatic drop in prices,
said Oscar Tjakra, senior analyst at Rabobank.
“This
comes on top of strong production in Thailand and Vietnam, which has taken
global rice output to a record high this marketing year,” he added.
Demand,
meanwhile, has fallen. Indonesia, one of the biggest buyers, frontloaded
imports last year and has not re-entered the market in 2025. The Philippines
has banned imports until October to protect domestic prices during its main
harvest.
“Indonesia
is out, the Philippines is out — there’s no demand for white rice right now,”
Mohanty said.
India’s
unusually strong supply position reflects advances in the country’s agriculture, he said. Almost
all the farms in the country’s main rice-growing regions have irrigation
systems now, making production more resilient to drought and increasingly
erratic monsoons, he said. “India has monsoon-proofed rice production.”
Farmers
are also increasingly buying new seeds each season, which boosts yields, and
expanding acreage of rice, thanks to the country’s minimum support price system
and state bonuses, which helps shield farmers from global price swings.
“Farmers know paddy is the most attractive crop. You get an MSP, you get a
bonus, and it’s less risky,” said Mohanty.
More
Rice prices plunge
to 8-year low after record harvests
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Today, a problem that will only get
much worse. Approx. 4 minutes.
EV Burns After Sitting 2 Years – TWICE!
EV Burns After Sitting 2 Years – TWICE! - YouTube
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
The
consequences of inflation are malinvestment, waste, a wanton redistribution of
wealth and income, the growth of speculation and gambling, immorality and
corruption, disillusionment, social resentment, discontent, upheaval and riots,
bankruptcy, increased government controls, and eventual collapse.
Henry
Hazlitt
