Baltic
Dry Index. 2016 -36 Brent Crude 68.51
Spot Gold 3391 US 2 Year Yield 3.85 -0.03
US Federal Debt. 37.133 trillion
US GDP 30.150 trillion.
In a world dependent on international trade and commerce, and staggering under a heavy load of international debt, no policy is more destructive than protectionism. It cuts off markets, eliminates trade, causes unemployment in the export industries all over the world, depresses the prices of export commodities, especially farm products of the United States. It is the crowning folly of government intervention.
Hans F. Sennholz
Later today, Fed Chairman Powell gets to address a big international bankster Pow Wow in Washington, District of Crooks. Will he use the occasion to hit back at President Trump?
Will he opine on US inflation in the light of Team Trump’s Trade War on the rest of the world?
Will he announce an early resignation?
Rarely has a central banker’s speech been so
eagerly awaited.
Asia-Pacific markets mixed after Wall Street
benchmarks hit record highs
Updated Mon, Jul 21 2025 11:57 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific stocks traded mixed Tuesday,
with Japanese
stocks reopening higher after the ruling coalition lost its majority
in the upper house over the weekend.
Investors are also assessing the
resilience of corporate earnings on Wall Street amid tariff threats, after two
of the three key
benchmarks hit record highs overnight.
Here are today’s highlights and a live
snapshot of how markets are faring:
- Shares
of SoftBank Group surged
over 5.7%
- Singapore
stocks broke
their 11-session rally
- South
Korea’s trade and finance ministers set to meet U.S.
counterparts on Friday
More
Asia
stock markets today: live updates
European stocks set for another lower open as
tariff uncertainty dents sentiment
Updated Tue, Jul 22 2025 12:28 AM EDT
Good morning from London, and welcome to
CNBC’s live blog covering all the action and business news in European
financial markets on Tuesday.
Futures data from IG suggest a negative
start to the new trading week for European bourses, with London’s FTSE 100 seen opening 0.3%
lower, France’s CAC 40 down
0.3%, Germany’s DAX down
0.4%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB 0.4%
lower.
European bourses have been on edge since
U.S. President Donald Trump announced earlier in July that he would impose a
30% tariff on goods imported from the EU starting Aug. 1. The EU said it hopes
to strike a trade deal before then but an agreement remains elusive. The bloc’s
policymakers are reportedly considering retaliatory measures if a deal can’t be
reached.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott
Bessent said Monday that implementing high tariff rates on countries
starting Aug.
1 “will put more pressure on those countries to
come with better agreements.”
European
markets on Tues July 22: Stoxx 600, FTSE, DAX, CAC
U.S. Leading Indicators Show Economic Clouds
Gathering
While no recession has been yet forecast,
economic growth is expected to slow substantially in 2025, The Conference Board
says
July 21, 2025 10:46 am ET
The U.S. economy is set to slow, leading
economic indicators say, with the impact of tariffs becoming more pronounced in
the second half of the year through higher prices.
The Leading Economic Index, or LEI,
published Monday by research group The Conference Board, declined 0.3% to 98.8
in June, a stronger fall than the 0.2% expected by a consensus of economists
polled by The Wall Street Journal. It followed an unchanged reading in May that
was revised upward from the 0.1% downtick originally reported.
The stock price rally was for a second
straight month the main support of the LEI, said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica,
senior manager for business cycle indicators at The Conference Board.
However, that wasn’t strong enough to
offset still-low consumer expectations, weak new orders in manufacturing, and a
third month of rising unemployment-insurance claims, she noted.
While no recession has been yet forecast,
economic growth is expected to slow substantially in 2025, with the impact of
tariffs becoming more apparent as consumer spending slows due to higher prices,
Zabinska-La Monica said.
The LEI has already fallen by 2.8% over
the first half this year, a faster rate than the 1.3% contraction over the
second half of 2024, The Conference Board said.
The LEI is meant as a predictive index. It
is based on 10 components, among them manufacturers’ new orders, initial claims
for unemployment insurance, building permits for new private housing units,
stock prices and consumer expectations, and aims to signal shifts in the
business cycle.
U.S.
Leading Indicators Show Economic Clouds Gathering - WSJ
US Economic Outlook Faces Two Storm Fronts
July 21, 2025 at 11:15 PM GMT+1
When it comes to trade and deficits, today
was not a great day for the US economic outlook. First there was new data
showing the number of shipping containers carrying US imports fell for a
second straight month, setting the stage for one of the sharpest year-on-year
reversals on record thanks to President Donald Trump’s trade war.
Veteran industry analyst John McCown,
writing in a monthly report based on the 10 largest US ports, said that
inbound container volume fell 7.9% in June from a year before. Similar declines
during the global financial crisis and the pandemic were short-term slumps. In
this case, however, he estimated that a 25% reduction in US container volumes
is “readily possible” and would translate “directly into a $510 billion
reduction in annual commerce for the US.”
More
US
Economic Outlook Faces Two Storm Fronts: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg
EU Targeted by China for Retaliation Over Bank
Sanctions
July 21, 2025 at 5:01 PM GMT+1
The European Union was put on notice that Beijing plans to retaliate
against the bloc’s newest sanctions. China’s Ministry of Commerce said that
last week’s EU penalties against two banks and five companies seriously
harmed trade, economic and financial ties.
China issued the warning ahead of
a summit
scheduled with EU leaders later this week in Beijing. The two trading
giants had sought to improve commercial ties as a
buffer against US President Donald Trumps import duties. But
that initial calculus seems to have changed as the EU also seeks to
ramp up pressure against entities
violating sanctions against Russia.
China’s close
ties with the Kremlin had subjected its banks to similar sanctions
from the US before, prompting them to re-evaluate businesses and clients.
Beijing has a number of diplomatic levers at its disposal, that range from
flexing economic power in metal exchanges to
piling legal pressure
on merchant bankers still wanting a piece of the world’s biggest
export market. —
Jonathan Tirone
EU
Targeted by China for Retaliation Over Bank Sanctions - Bloomberg
In other news.
U.S. firms scramble to secure rare-earth magnets —
imports from China surge 660%
Published Mon, Jul 21 2025 3:08 AM EDT
China’s exports of rare-earth magnets to
the United States in June surged more than seven times from the prior month, as
American firms clamor to get hold of the critical elements following a
preliminary Sino-U.S. trade deal.
In April, Beijing placed restrictions on
several critical magnets, used in advanced tech such as electric vehicles, wind
turbines and MRI machines, requiring firms to receive licenses for export. The
move was seen as retaliation against U.S. President Donald Trump’s steep
tariffs on China.
Beijing has a stranglehold on the
production of rare-earth magnets, with an estimated 90% of the
market, as
well as a similar hold on the refining of rare-earth elements, which are used
to make magnets.
The U.S. received about 353 metric tons of
rare-earth permanent magnets in June, up 660% from the previous month, data
released by the General Administration of Customs showed, though the exports
were about half that from June last year.
The U.S. was the second-largest
destination for China’s rare-earth magnets, behind Germany, as it relies
heavily on their imports for its large manufacturing sector, particularly in
automotive, electronics, and renewable energy.
In total, China exported 3,188 metric tons
of rare earth permanent magnets globally last month, up nearly 160% from May,
but 38% lower compared with the same period last year.
The growth in exports came after
Washington and Beijing agreed last month on a trade
framework that
included easing controls on Chinese rare-earth exports as well as a rollback of
some American tech restrictions for shipments to China.
AI behemoth Nvidia said last week it was
planning to resume shipments of its H20 AI chips to China, after the exports
were restricted in April. Last month, controls on American AI chip software
companies’ business in China had also been rolled back.
Chinese rare-earth magnet producers started
announcing the
approval of export licenses last month.
If exports continue to increase, it will
be of great benefit to companies that have been suffering from shortages of
magnets due to the lengthy time required to secure export licenses. For
example, several European auto-parts suppliers were forced to halt production in recent
months.
The magnet shortages had also hit emerging
industries such as humanoid robotics. In April, Elon Musk said production of
Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robots had been disrupted.
China’s controls on its rare-earths sector
have prompted some global governments to reexamine their rare-earth supply
chains and search for ways to support domestic mining of the minerals.
However, experts say that setting up
alternatives to China’s rare-earth magnet supply chain could take years, as it
requires an intricate process of rare-earth element refining and
separation.
More
U.S. firms
scramble to secure rare-earth magnets
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Beef
prices are the new egg prices. They’re soaring
Published
7:00 AM EDT, Mon July 21, 2025
Last
month, Tyson Foods CEO Donnie King said during their earnings call that “beef
is experiencing the most challenging market conditions we’ve ever seen.”
Cattle
herd sizes are at their lowest levels in 74 years, according to the American
Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). Cattle ranching is not as profitable as it once
was, and experts say many ranchers have given up.
“Even
with these record high prices, margins for cattle farmers and ranchers are
razor thin thanks to continued elevated supply costs,” wrote AFBF economist
Bernt Nelson in a market intel report from May.
One
of those supply costs: feed. Sustained drought throughout large portions of US
ranchland have dried out pastures, forcing ranchers to rely on more expensive
feed for cattle instead of free-grazing grass, according to the AFBF.
At
the same time, Americans are looking for more options.
Imported
beef from countries like Argentina, Australia and Brazil now account for
roughly 8% of US beef consumption, according to Swanson. At the same time,
exports of beef have slowed — dropping 22% in May compared to the year before,
according to the AFBF.
“It’s
a big change that we’ve seen this year that wasn’t on anybody’s playbook. Only
a couple of years ago, we were net neutral, where we exported some and imported
some,” said Swanson, adding that we’ll “continue to see more beef consumption
in the United States being supplied by the world market, and they’re happy to
do it since we’re the highest priced beef in the world.”
But
Americans continue to eat beef despite record prices, according to the AFBF,
with overall US demand remaining strong.
With
prices so high, some retailers are finding creative ways to cut costs.
Last
month, Walmart opened its first-ever owned and operated beef facility. The new
facility, located in Olathe, Kansas, allows Walmart to work directly with its
suppliers, cutting out a middleman and saving on costs.
More
Beef
prices are the new egg prices. They’re soaring | CNN Business
German
central bank warns US tariffs could bring further recession
19
July 2025
Germany's
central bank, the Bundesbank, has warned that the tariffs announced by US
President Donald Trump could plunge the German economy back into recession.
This
year, gross domestic product could shrink, and next year the previously
expected growth of 0.7% could be completely "eaten up," Bundesbank
President Joachim Nagel said on the sidelines of a meeting of the Group of 20
(G20) developing and developed countries in the South African city of Durban on
Friday.
Nagel
said that companies are already feeling enormous uncertainty, but at the same
time he insisted that a tariff agreement should not be reached at any price.
"And
that is also my wish, my request to the US side, not to play with the situation
here," Nagel said, "because in the end, it is our prosperity that is
at stake if economic policies are pursued that could cause great damage
globally."
German
economic output has contracted slightly in the previous two years, but gross
domestic product rose slightly in the first quarter of 2025.
Trump
has announced plans to impose tariffs of 30% on imports from the European Union
from August 1. His finance minister, Scott Bessent, joined a separate meeting
of the Group of Seven (G7) leading indistrialized nations in Durban via video
link.
German
Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil reported that there was broad agreement with
Trump that a solution must be found. At the same time he emphasized that
"there will be no deal at any price."
The
EU is ready at any time to take decisive countermeasures to protect jobs and
companies in Europe, he said.
German central
bank warns US tariffs could bring further recession
‘30%
is untenable’: From Irish whiskey to Italian cheese, Trump’s tariff threat
rattles EU exporters
Published
Sat, Jul 19 2025 1:00 AM EDT
Along
the “last road in Ireland,” on the country’s rugged west coast, June
O’Connell’s business Skellig Six18 makes gin and whiskey — a
time-intensive process guided by the wind, rain and cool temperatures that roll
in year-round off the Atlantic.
America
was a natural target market once their first spirits were ready to sell in
2019, according to O’Connell, given its strong familiarity with Ireland and big
appetite for premium drinks. As an independent supplier, negotiations with
distributors, marketers and retailers took more than a year, and her first
products left County Kerry in November 2023 for a U.S. launch in early 2024.
Then
the political tide started turning in the White House.
“Once
it became clear which way things were heading, people were trying to get a lot
of product stateside ahead of tariffs. We did do some of that, but now
warehouses are full, importers are saying don’t send any more, and it’s only
the big customers who are getting priority,” O’Connell told CNBC.
Since
the start of the year, President Donald Trump’s unpredictable tariff
announcements have been roiling businesses of all sizes.
The
European Union in particular has drawn Trump’s ire for its 198 billion euro
($231 billion) trade surplus in goods with the U.S.
He argues tariffs are
needed to
create a more balanced relationship; EU officials, however, argue that trade is
more even across goods, services and investments, and have pledged to increase
oil and gas purchases to narrow the gap.
Last
weekend, Trump announced he is planning to hit the EU with a
blanket tariff rate of 30% from Aug. 1, after last-minute negotiations
failed to produce a framework deal. Huge uncertainty now hangs over whether an
agreement can be struck in the next two weeks, and what details or compromises it might
contain.
‘It
will be a lose-lose situation’
The
Trump administration has already imposed a 10% baseline duty on EU imports,
along with higher rates for automotives and metals.
The
fact that the U.K.’s trade deal
with the U.S. maintained
a 10% baseline tariff with some sector exemptions has led many to believe that
this could be Europe’s best hope. The Financial Times reported
Friday that
Trump is now taking a harder line in EU negotiations and pushing
for minimum tariffs of 15-20%, citing people briefed on the talks.
CNBC has not independently confirmed the report.
The
EU’s food and drink trade with the U.S. is worth almost 30 billion euros, and
trade group FoodDrinkEurope warned this week that any escalation in tariffs —
which are generally paid by the importer — would hit European producers and
farmers, while limiting choice and driving up costs for U.S. consumers.
More
From Irish whiskey
to Italian cheese, U.S. tariffs rattle EU exporters
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Today, off topic, but
interesting.
'Universal cancer vaccine' trains the immune system to kill any tumor
By Bronwyn Thompson July 18, 2025
Following on from their breakthrough human trial
that successfully reprogrammed the immune system to overpower glioblastoma, an
aggressive brain tumor, the same scientists have now further developed the mRNA
vaccine to fight not one but any cancer. It has the potential to do away with
chemotherapy, surgery and radiation treatment.
University of Florida (UF) scientists have
developed an experimental vaccine that dramatically boosts the immune system’s
ability to fight tumors – even without targeting a specific cancer type. This
"general purpose" mRNA jab works in a similar way to a Covid-19
vaccine but with a different target; it instructs the body's immune cells to
rally and hit any kind of tumor in the same way they would attack a viral spike
protein.
“This paper describes a very unexpected and
exciting observation: that even a vaccine not specific to any particular tumor
or virus – so long as it is an mRNA vaccine – could lead to tumor-specific
effects,” said Elias Sayour, a pediatric oncologist and principal investigator
at the RNA Engineering Laboratory at UF. “This finding is a proof of concept
that these vaccines potentially could be commercialized as universal cancer
vaccines to sensitize the immune system against a patient’s individual tumor."
Sayour has spent a decade working to harness the
power of mRNA science in order to effectively treat cancer. The success with
the glioblastoma
study led to broadening the treatment's scope, not
targeting one kind of tumor but instead focusing on giving the body's immune
system the tools to fight any kind of cancer cell. It's part of a growing
body of evidence that suggests mRNA vaccines might be a
serious weapon in fighting the disease.
More
New mRNA
vaccine shows promise against all cancers
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Today, something a little different.
Who discovered tea.
History of tea
---- In Chinese legend, some
time around 2737 BC, Emperor Shennong was drinking a bowl of just boiled water
because of a decree that his subjects must boil water before drinking it.[10] A few leaves were blown from a nearby tree
into his water, changing the color and taste. The emperor took a sip of the
brew and was pleasantly surprised by its flavor and restorative properties. A
variant of the legend tells that the emperor tested the medical properties of
various herbs on himself, some of them poisonous, and found tea to work as an
antidote.[11] Shennong is also mentioned in Lu Yu's famous early work on the subject, The Classic of Tea.[12] A similar Chinese legend states that Shennong
would chew the leaves, stems, and roots of various plants to discover medicinal
herbs. If he consumed a poisonous plant, he would chew tea leaves to counteract
the poison.
A later legend comes from Japan. In this
telling, Bodhidharma, the founder
of Chan Buddhism, accidentally fell asleep after meditating in front
of a wall for 9 years. He woke up in such disgust at his weakness that he cut
off his eyelids. They fell to the ground and took root, growing into tea
bushes, the leaves of which could make a drink to keep people from falling
asleep.[13] Another version of the story has Gautama Buddha in place of Bodhidharma.[14]
More.
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
At
least half of the popular fallacies about economics come from assuming that
economic activity is a zero-sum game, in which what is gained by someone is
lost by someone else. But transactions would not continue unless both sides
gained, whether in international trade, employment, or renting an apartment.
Thomas
Sowell
