Baltic
Dry Index. 1676 -90 Brent Crude 74.48
Spot Gold 2679 US 2 Year Yield 3.93 -0.02
I have no faith in political arithmetic.
Adam Smith. “An Inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations”, 1776.
In the stock casinos, long divorced from the harsh reality of the global economy, the greater fool stock bubble continues to make new highs almost daily.
Remind me again how 1929 ended.
China property stocks drop over 5% after housing
ministry briefing; broader Asia markets mostly up
Updated Thu, Oct 17 2024 12:11 AM EDT
China property stocks dropped following a
briefing by the country’s housing ministry, while the broader CSI 300 was up
along with most other Asia-Pacific markets.
The CSI 300 real estate index — which had
gained over 5% on Wednesday — fell 5.5%, while the benchmark CSI 300 was up
0.3%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.6%,
while the broad-based Topix was little changed as investors assesed trade data out of Japan.
Japan’s exports fell 1.7% in September
compared to the same period last year, surprising economists polled by Reuters
who expected a 0.5% growth rate. It’s the first time that exports contracted
this year and was down sharply from a revised growth rate of 5.5% in
August.
September’s import growth came in at 2.1%
also missing expectations of economists who expected growth of 3.2%. The figure
was down from August’s growth of 2.3%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.6% in
trading.
Australia’s unemployment rate for
September in at 4.1%, slightly down from a Reuters poll that expected it to
remain unchanged from August at 4.2%.
Australia’s labor participation rate
slightly increased to 67.2% in September, up 0.1 percentage points from August
as well as forecasts.
South Korea’s Kospi was trading flat,
while the small-cap Kosdaq was up 0.15%.
The Hong Kong Hang Seng index rose 1.2%
following a number of policy
announcements from its chief executive on Wednesday.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
Company is set to report earnings later Thursday. TSMC’s results will
be in focus after poor sales forecasts from Dutch semiconductor equipment maker
ASML drove
down global chip stocks.
Overnight in the U.S., the Dow Jones
gained 337.28 points, or 0.79%, to ended at 43,077.70.
The S&P 500 added 0.47% to
5,842.47, while the Nasdaq
Composite jumped 0.28% to close at 18,367.08.
Asia markets live updates: China breifing, Japan trade, Australia jobs (cnbc.com)
China pledges more financial support for
‘whitelist’ real estate projects
Published Wed, Oct 16 2024 9:38 PM EDT
China will expand its “whitelist” of real
estate projects and speed up bank lending for these unfinished developments to
4 trillion yuan ($561.8 billion) by the end of the year, the country’s housing
ministry said Thursday.
Ni Hong, China’s minister of housing and
urban-rural development, made the announcement at a press conference, alongside
officials from the central bank, finance ministry and the National Financial
Regulatory Administration.
A total of 2.23 trillion yuan had already
been approved in loans to whitelisted developers. That figure will almost
double to 4 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, according to a senior official
from the financial regulatory administration.
Launched in January, China’s “whitelist” initiative allows city governments to
recommend residential projects to banks for speedier lending. The intent was to
ensure the completion of unfinished housing projects so they could finally be
delivered to buyers.
All commercial housing projects are now
eligible for the “whitelist” project, Xiao Yuanqi, vice minister of the
administration said Thursday. The move is expected to broaden the list.
Xiao also stressed that banks should
deploy funds “as soon as possible,” saying they could release the loans in full
to developers rather than in tranches, according to CNBC’s translation of the
Chinese.
The briefing was the latest in a series of
high-level government policy announcements aimed at bolstering the economy.
---- Disappointing
briefing
Some investors saw the recent flurry of
activity as a sign that Beijing was finally ready to take drastic measures to
stimulate growth, and had hoped for more stimulus measures from the briefing.
As Xiao was speaking, Chinese CSI 300 real estate index dropped over 5%, in a
sharp turnaround from gains of around 8.7% in the previous three trading
sessions.
Over the weekend, officials from China’s
Ministry of Finance announced that they would allow local governments
to issue more special bonds for land purchases and allow affordable housing
subsidies to be used for existing housing inventory, instead of only new
construction.
Chinese property stocks soared
on Monday off the news, with the Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index
rising over 2%. Real estate was also the leading gainer in Mainland China’s CSI
300, advancing by nearly 5%.
From its peak in 2020, HSMPI had lost more
than 80%. In May, Ni told reporters at a press conference that developers “that
must go bankrupt, should go bankrupt, or be restructured.”
Real estate slump
More than 50 cities across China had
introduced policies to boost the real estate market, according to state media, citing the housing ministry.
Ahead of the Golden Week holiday, the city
of Guangzhou announced it will remove all restrictions on home purchases.
Meanwhile the governments of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen moved to ease
homebuying restrictions by non-local buyers and lowered the minimum
down-payment ratios.
The slew of measures came after China’s
previous measures had led to little meaningful rebounds. New home prices in
August dropped at the fastest pace in more than nine years, according to
the National Bureau of Statistics data.
More
China pledges more financial support for 'whitelist' real estate projects (cnbc.com)
Stock futures are little changed after Dow closes
at another record high: Live updates
Updated Thu, Oct 17 2024 7:49 PM EDT
U.S. stock futures hovered near the
flatline Wednesday evening after the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed
at a record for the second time this week.
Dow futures lost 38 points,
or 0.09%. Futures tied to the S&P
500 and Nasdaq 100
futures fell around 0.1% each.
Aluminum producer Alcoa jumped nearly 6% in
extended trading after posting adjusted earnings that topped expectations.
Transport stock CSX fell
almost 4% on disappointing results.
During regular trading Wednesday, the
blue-chip Dow advanced 0.79%. The S&P 500 rose 0.47%, while
the tech-heavy Nasdaq
Composite added 0.28%.
Earnings results from companies that have
reported in the week, notably financials, indicate a “Goldilocks type of
atmosphere, with resilient growth, fading inflationary pressures [and] a
normalization of the economy,” Adam Crisafulli, Vital Knowledge founder, said
Wednesday on CNBC’s “Closing
Bell: Overtime.”
“That, more than anything, has really
helped put a bid underneath the market. It’s helped catalyze a lot of these
cyclical value groups, and we’re seeing tech take a back step a little bit the
last few days because of it,” he said.
Indeed, the financials sector rose 1.2% on
Wednesday, seeing a boost from Morgan
Stanley. The bank rose 6.5% after topping
estimates for third-quarter profit and revenue.
Corporate earnings are set to continue
with insurance company Travelers,
alternative asset manager Blackstone and
health insurer Elevance Health slated
to report Thursday morning. Regional banks KeyCorp, M&T Bank and Truist Financial are also on
deck.
On the economic front, traders will be
looking toward weekly jobless claims and September’s retail sales due on
Thursday. Industrial and manufacturing production data are also due.
Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Deere Announces More Layoffs in Iowa, Illinois
During Farm Slump
Wed, 16 Oct 2024, 9:34 pm BST
(Bloomberg) -- Deere & Co. is laying
off an additional nearly 300 people in Iowa and Illinois as demand for farm
equipment slows from the peak production of recent years.
It’s the latest round of layoffs this year
for the world’s top agricultural machinery maker, after it slashed its annual
earnings outlook in May. An expansion in crop supplies this year has pressured
grain prices, leaving farmers with less to spend on new gear.
The move is unrelated to plans to shift
some of its production from the US to Mexico, Deere said in a statement. Former
President Donald Trump has threatened to hit the company with steep tariffs if
it moves jobs to Mexico. Deere has said it is committed to US manufacturing.
“It is important to note these layoffs are
due to reduced demand for the products produced at these facilities,” the
company said Wednesday. “As we have repeatedly stated, layoffs this fiscal year
are due to the weakening farm economy.”
Deere said it boosted its work force when
demand surged during the Covid-19 pandemic, which roiled supply chains, only
for the farm economy to start slowing.
About 200 production workers will be laid
off in East Moline, Illinois; 80 workers in Davenport, Iowa; and seven in
Moline, Illinois.
Deere Announces More Layoffs in Iowa, Illinois During Farm Slump (yahoo.com)
Finally, yet another warning on spiralling global debt.
Don’t worry, it’s only fiat money right? Not real money? I mean, with a President Trump or Harris, (PM Starmer in the UK, Trudeau in Canada, Macron in France and Scholz in Germany,) what could possibly go wrong?
IMF warns global government debt will hit $100
TRILLION this year with Britain told it must act
16 October 2024.
Total public debt across the world will
top $100 trillion (£77 trillion) for the first time by the end of this year,
according to a stark forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
As Rachel Reeves struggles to make her
Budget numbers add up, the global watchdog said governments must act now to
prevent debt spiralling further out of control or risk having to take even more
painful action in future.
Its projections see global debt reaching
93 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) by the end of this year and
100 per cent by 2030.
But it highlighted the risk that the debt
burden could surge even more quickly as governments face pressure to increase
spending thanks to the ageing population, climate change, and rising defence
budgets amid growing global tensions.
In a ‘severely adverse scenario’ it could
hit 115 per cent in three years’ time, the IMF said.
Its report said debt has increased more
rapidly in large countries such as the UK since the pandemic – when billions
were splurged on saving lives and protecting jobs.
The IMF warned that delaying any move to tackle
debt would be costly and mean the required ‘correction’ – through tax rises or
spending cuts – would be even larger.
And it also made clear that there was a
big risk in not tackling the problem early enough.
If jittery bond investors take fright that
would mean countries find it hard to borrow money in the event of a crisis that
requires more spending.
‘Country experiences suggest that high
debt and the lack of credible plans for dealing with it can trigger adverse
market reactions and leave little fiscal room for manoeuvre in the face of
adverse shocks,’ the report said.
And the IMF chided indebted countries for
failing to get to grips with the colossal scale of debt.
More
EU prepares Tariff retaliation as Trump outlines
trade plans
16 October 2024
Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that the
European Union has prepared a list of American goods on which it could impose
tariffs if Donald Trump wins the November presidential election in the US and,
as he has promised, applies tariffs to all imported products.
Trump, the Republican Party's presidential
candidate, sparred in an interview conducted on Tuesday with Bloomberg News editor-in-chief
John Micklethwait about the tariffs he plans to impose on all goods imported
into the US should he win in November.
When the interviewer pointed out that most
economists, including experts questioned by the conservative newspaper
"The Wall Street Journal," consider Trump's plans
pro-inflationary, he replied: "What does the Wall Street Journal know?
They've been wrong about everything. So have you, by the way. You've been wrong
your whole life."
Brussels ready for retaliation
Bloomberg, citing "people familiar
with the thinking" in the EU, reported on Wednesday that Brussels
has prepared a list of American goods on which it could impose tariffs if
Trump wins the election and follows through on his threat, impacting the
Community with punitive trade measures.
According to the agency, the list of goods
prepared by the EU for tariffs will be used exclusively in retaliation for
actions by the White House.
One anonymous source emphasised that
the EU would prefer seeking an agreement with Trump in areas of common
interest, such as China.
EU prepares Tariff retaliation as Trump outlines trade plans (msn.com)
Great nations are never impoverished by private, though they sometimes are by public prodigality and misconduct.
Adam Smith. “An Inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations”, 1776.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Inflation
falls below two per cent for first time since April 2021
Wednesday 16 October 2024 7:02 am Updated: Wednesday 16 October 2024 7:49 am
Inflation
fell further than expected last month, dropping below the two per cent target
for the first time since April 2021 in a further boost for the Bank of England.
The
consumer price index fell to 1.7 per cent in September, according to the Office
for National Statistics (ONS), down from 2.2 per cent in August.
This
was a bigger fall than economists had expected. City traders had expected
inflation to fall to 1.9 per cent in September.
“Inflation
eased in September to its lowest annual rate in over three years,” ONS Chief
Economist Grant Fitzner said.
“Lower
airfares and petrol prices were the biggest driver for this month’s fall. These
were partially offset by increases for food and non-alcoholic drinks, the first
time that food price inflation has strengthened since early last year,” he
added.
The
figures showed that services inflation eased much faster than expected,
dropping to 4.9 per cent from 5.6 per cent in August. Economists had expected
services inflation to fall to 5.2 per cent.
Services inflation has been a
key measure for Bank officials as they seek to understand the underlying
inflationary dynamics in the economy.
The
sharp drop indicates that inflationary pressures might be easing faster than
the Bank’s most recent forecasts would suggest.
Suren
Thiru, economics director at ICAEW said the “notable drop” suggests domestic
price pressures are becoming “less sticky”.
“The
squeeze from slower economic activity and weaker wage growth should help keep
it on a downward trajectory,” he continued.
Darren
Jones, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, said it will be “welcome news for
millions of families” that inflation is below two per cent.
September’s
inflation figures came a day after official data showed a further easing in
wage growth, which bolstered bets that the
Bank would cut interest rates again in November.
Following
this morning’s figures, the pound dropped sharply to just over $1.30, its
lowest level since mid-August. Gilt yields fell across the curve too,
suggesting markets expect a faster pace of interest rate cuts.
More
Inflation falls below two per cent for first time since April 2021 (cityam.com)
Hopes
of TWO interest rate cuts by Christmas as inflation tumbles
16
October 2024
Brits
could get a Christmas boost with
two quick interest rate cuts after inflation tumbled
below the Bank
of England's
target for the first time in three years.
Headline CPI dropped to
1.7 per cent in September from 2.2 per cent the previous month - much better
than analysts had expected.
The
Pound immediately plunged against the US dollar as markets priced in a
near-certain cut by Threadneedle Street next month, followed by a further
likely reduction in December.
The
slowdown in prices - to the lowest level since was April 2021 - was driven by
easing petrol costs and
plane fares.
Food
costs did nudge up and the rate could lift again this month due to the energy
cap increasing.
But
Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has already
suggested that interest rate cuts could be more 'aggressive' if inflation
remans under control.
Chancellor
Rachel Reeves also looks set to hike taxes significantly in the Budget on
October 30, which could take more momentum out of the economy.
The
CPI figures follow data yesterday showing wage rises slowing down, another key
factor for the Bank.
Regular
pay went up by an annual rate of 4.9 per cent in the three months to July -
from 5.1 per cent in the previous quarter.
That
was the lowest level since June 2022, although still 2.6 per cent above
the CPI inflation
rate.
The
inflation figure for September is used to set a variety of benefits.
It
means UK state benefits will rise by 1.7 per cent next year, and confirms that
state pensions will increase by 4.1 per cent next April, due to the triple-lock
policy.
More
Hopes of TWO interest rate cuts by Christmas as inflation tumbles (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Why
young children are less likely to get severe Covid as XEC variant spreads
across Europe
15
October 2024
It
has been almost five years since the first case of Covid-19 was
discovered and one of the first things scientists were able to identify about
the disease was that young children were less likely to become severely ill.
Cases of coronavirus are
currently spreading across Europe with new variant XEC suspected to be the
cause.
The
number of people being taken to hospital with coronavirus in Wales doubled in
September. The XEC variant was first detected in Germany in June.
The
strain is a combination of the KS.1.1 and KP.3.3 variants. So far the symptoms
of the variant are no different to previous variants of Covid.
A
new research paper that looks into why pre-schoolers, who are under five years
old, are less likely to develop severe disease has been published. The paper
describes how it isn't that these children haven't had Covid as data from the
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that 90% of children from
infancy to the age of 17 have been exposed to coronavirus.
Scientists
worldwide were perplexed by this as children of this age are often
significantly affected by the flu and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). One
study in America discovered that, just like adults, if a child was infected
with coronavirus, antibodies specific to the virus rose quickly. However unlike
adults, where those antibodies then declined again over several months,
children tended to maintain the levels of antibodies, or saw them rise, for a
much longer period.
Dr
Bali Pulendran, lead investigator of research carried out at Stanford, also
described pre-schoolers as having an "abundance of inflammation-promoting
proteins" in the nasal cavity area. One of these proteins is called
alpha-interferon, which can shut down viral replication in infected cells, as
reported in Medicalxpress.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Stunning solar
cells offer 25% efficiency, 95% stability after 2,000 hrs of trial
12 October 2024
Researchers have developed a new fabrication technique for substantially
enhancing the prospects of commercializing perovskite solar cells.
Developed
by researchers at the City University of Hong Kong (CityUHK), the technique
improves stability, reliability, efficiency and affordability of perovskite
solar cells.
Using
the technique, the CityUHK team has built a simple device structure that can
facilitate future industrial production and enhance confidence in the
commercialization of perovskite solar cells.
Significant
step in making solar energy more accessible
They
improved the long-term stability of perovskite solar cells with an atomic-layer
deposition (ALD) method. The layer replaces the fullerene electron transport
layer with tin oxide.
Professor
Zhu Zonglong of the Department of Chemistry stated that the mineral perovskite is
used extensively to convert sunlight into electricity efficiently.
Zonglong
underlined that the improvements in stability and the simplification of the
production process of perovskite solar cells represent a significant step
forward in making solar energy more
accessible and affordable.
In
broad terms, the CityUHK team is working on a new type of solar cell that can
turn sunlight into electricity more efficiently and last longer than current
solar cells, according to a press
release.
Two
innovations have been developed by the team for creating the structure of
solar cells.
The
first innovation is the integration of the hole-selective materials and the
perovskite layers, which simplifies the manufacturing process. The second is
that the operational stability of the device is
greatly enhanced by using the inorganic electron transport layer, tin oxide,
which has excellent thermal stability, to replace traditional organic materials
such as fullerene and BCP, according to researchers.
Dr Gao
Danpeng, co-author of the Science paper and a post-doc at CityUHK, stated that
the device structure reported in this study represents the most simplified
architecture in the current field of perovskite solar cells, offering
significant advantages for industrialisation.
This
solution does not require a traditional organic transfer layer, effectively
reducing the material cost in the manufacturing process while greatly
simplifying the production steps, according to Dr Gao.
Power
conversion efficiencies exceeding 25%
Professor
Zhu claimed that
the team has achieved power conversion efficiencies exceeding 25% by optimising
oxygen vacancy defects within the tin oxide layer while retaining over 95%
efficiency after 2,000 hours of continuous operation under rigorous test
conditions.
Researchers
maintained that this performance exceeds the stability of traditional
perovskite solar cells, meeting several industry benchmarks for longevity. The
results pave the way for more reliable and efficient solar cells, simplifying
manufacturing processes and making producing solar cells at scale more
cost-effective, according to the study.
Professor
Zhu claimed that the research has the potential to be implemented in solar
energy systems within the next 5 years.
“This
research is a critical step towards achieving more sustainable and
environmentally friendly energy production globally,” added Zhu.
The
study titled “Long-term stability in perovskite solar cells through atomic
layer deposition of tin oxide” is published in Science.
Stunning solar
cells offer 25% efficiency, 95% stability after 2,000 hrs of trial (msn.com)
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Goods
can serve many other purposes besides purchasing money, but money can serve no
other purpose besides purchasing goods.
Adam Smith. “An Inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations”, 1776. [Ed. Error. In America money can buy politicians.]
