Thursday, 27 March 2025

Every Man For Himself!!! More Trump Tariff Anarchy. Depression 2.0?

Baltic Dry Index. 1634 -08          Brent Crude 73.73

Spot Gold 3031               US 2 Year Yield 3.98  +0.02  

US Federal Debt. 36.647 trillion!!

“Son, if you really want something in this life, you have to work for it. Now quiet! They’re about to announce the lottery numbers.”

Homer Simpson.

Is the global economy about to enter Great Depression 2.0?  To this old dinosaur stock and commodities follower since 1968, I think the answer is yes!

Corporation, consumers and nations are already drowning in a Pacific Ocean of largely unserviceable debt, which excepting for Germany wasn’t the case in 1930.

Team Trump’s attempt to undo 80 years of Pax Americana since 1945 in less than one year is highly likely to fail in a giant repeat of the 1930s depression.

Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed after Wall Street declines on Trump’s fresh tariffs on autos

Updated Thu, Mar 27 2025 1:22 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Thursday, tracking losses on Wall Street as investors weighed U.S. President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on auto imports.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 traded 1.01% lower in its last hour while the broader Topix index dropped 0.53%.

Over in South Korea, the Kospi index declined 1.19% while the small-cap Kosdaq fell 1.06%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.87% while mainland China’s CSI 300 was up 0.4%.

India’s benchmark Nifty 50 started the day 0.42% higher while the broader BSE Sensex rose 0.48%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 ended the day 0.38% lower at 7,969.

U.S. futures edged down after the three key Wall Street indexes logged losses overnight.

The S&P 500 lost 1.12% and ended at 5,712.20, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 132.71 points, or 0.31%, to close at 42,454.79. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite shed 2.04% and closed at 17,899.01, as Nvidia shares dropped nearly 6%.

Major tech names such as Meta Platforms and Amazon dropped more than 2%, while Alphabet lost more than 3%. Tesla slid more than 5%.

Asia markets live: Stocks fall on Trump tariffs

Shares of Asia’s automakers fall as Trump announces 25% tariffs on car imports

Published Wed, Mar 26 2025 9:38 PM EDT

Shares of Asia’s automakers fell after U.S. President Donald Trump announced he will impose tariffs on cars not made in the country.

Japanese automakers Toyota and Honda fell 3.69% and 2.91% respectively. Nissan, which has two plants in Mexico, declined 2.92%, and Mazda Motor lost over 6%. Mitsubishi Motor fell 4.9%. 

South Korea’s Kia Motors, which has a manufacturing plant in Mexico, dipped 2.76%. Shares of Chinese automakers Nio and Xpeng fell 3.94% and 1.97% respectively.

These new tariffs will go into effect April 2. White House aide Will Scharf explained that the tariffs will apply to “foreign-made cars and light trucks,” in addition to existing duties. 

The full details of the proclamation remain unclear, as most cars consist of parts from various countries.

These tariffs are also expected to bring in over $100 billion of new annual revenue to the U.S., Scharf estimated.

“Every automaker that sells vehicles in the U.S. depends on global supply chains for automotive parts, with many of them coming from China,” said Karl Brauer, executive analyst at iSeeCars.

“That means even if Honda or Toyota assembles a model in the U.S., the parts that come from China will raise the cost of producing those vehicles,” he told CNBC via email, adding that these costs will either reduce an automaker’s profit or be passed on to consumers in the form of higher price.

Vehicles assembled in the U.S. will also be impacted, though at a lower level, based on the makeup of its foreign parts, said the analyst.

“No U.S. automotive retailer will escape the impact of these tariffs,” said Brauer.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen criticized the tariffs on social media platform X and affirmed that the European Union will continue seeking negotiated solutions “while safeguarding its economic interests.”

“The fact that it’s a signed executive order makes it a little stronger than we thought it would be,” said Joseph McCabe, CEO and President of AutoForecast Solutions.

“Rolling it back before April 2 doesn’t seem to be likely. This is going to be in effect for most likely a couple weeks if not a month, and then we’re going to see some some devastation in that time frame,” he added.

Shares of Asia's automakers fall as Trump announces 25% tariffs on car imports

China’s industrial profits slip at start of the year as deflationary pressures, tariff risks mount

Published Wed, Mar 26 2025 9:38 PM EDT

China’s industrial profits slipped in the opening months of the year, official data showed Thursday, as enterprises navigate persistent deflationary pressure and rising global trade tensions.

Profits at major industrial firms dipped 0.3% in the first two months this year, after three consecutive years of sharp declines, supported by improved profitability in manufacturing and raw material sectors.

In December, profits rebounded 11% year on year, snapping four consecutive months of declines, signaling Beijing’s stimulus measures since late September have been trickling through the economy though the latest data clouds the picture.

“The mood on Chinese economy is definitely improving,” Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Thursday. The Wall Street bank has raised its forecast for China’s economic growth this year to 4.5% from 4.0%.

“However, it is still showing a mixed bag,” he said, adding that “corporate profit is still lagging and consumer sentiment is still at subdued levels.”

State-backed industrial companies saw their bottom-line grow 2.1% in the first two months and those with foreign investments saw profits rise 4.9%, according to official data.

Profits in the manufacturing sector and utilities industry — electricity, heat, gas and water supply — increased by 4.8% and 13.5% from a year earlier, respectively. However, profits at the mining industry plunged 25.2% from a year ago.

Yu Weining, a statistician at the National Statistics Bureau, attributed the smaller decline to the expansion of Beijing’s consumer goods trade-in and equipment upgrade policy. “Profitability improved in the corresponding industries and enterprises in those supply chains,” Yu said, according to CNBC translation of the Chinese statement.

Yu cautioned that some operating challenges still persist amid “a more challenging external environment.”

U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed 20% additional tariffs on Chinese goods in just a little over two months in office. He announced on Wednesday night stateside auto tariffs of 25% on cars “not made in the U.S.,” starting April 2.

More

China’s industrial profits slip at start of the year as deflationary pressures, tariff risks mount

In other news, more and more red flags. Prepare for 1930s 2.0!

Japanese Carmakers Face Catastrophic Profit Hit From Trump's Auto Tariffs

Thursday, Mar 27, 2025 - 04:12 AM

As the fallout from Trump’s tariff plans comes into relief, a harsh truth is emerging for the automotive industry: there are lots of losers and not many winners. But foreign automakers, those without US facilities, will be hit especially hard. 

As Bloomberg notes, from South Korea’s Hyundai to Germany’s Volkswagen, and to a lesser extent America’s own General Motors, many of the world’s most prominent carmakers will soon face higher costs from Trump’s new levies on auto imports and key components. That's because about 46% of all new cars sold in the US are imported.

“There are very few winners,” Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting for AutoForecast Solutions, said in a phone interview. “Consumers will be losers because they will have reduced choice and higher prices.”

One notable winner in the tariff chaos is Elon Musk. His Tesla, which has large factories in California and Texas, churns out all the electric vehicles it sells in the US, although as Elon noted late on Wednesday, the company will also not remain unscathed.

Important to note that Tesla is NOT unscathed here. The tariff impact on Tesla is still significant.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 27, 2025

Ford could also face a less-severe impact than some rivals, with about 80% of the cars it sells in the US being built domestically.

Others will be less lucky: starting April 2, the new 25% tariffs will apply to all imported passenger vehicles and light trucks, as well as key parts like engines, transmissions. 

Not surprisingly, the tariffs give automakers that heavily source parts in the US an edge, and Trump also allowed an exemption: the new levies will only apply to the non-US share of vehicles and parts imported under a free-trade agreement with Canada and Mexico. That may soften the blow for vehicles whose supply lines zig-zag across the continent. 

Tariffs on parts from Canada and Mexico that comply with the trade deal also won’t take effect until the US sets up a process to collect those levies. The US neighbors could use that window to try to stave off full implementation, even if it’s a long shot.

And while NAFTA, pardon USMCA, nations will do everything in their power to be loopholed out, foreign brands heavily reliant on imported vehicles are fresh out of luck. South Korea’s auto giant Hyundai risks being among the hardest hit: although the carmaker and its affiliate Kia have plants in Alabama and Georgia, and just yesterday announced a $21 billion US expansion plan, it imported more than a million vehicles to the US last year, accounting for more than half of its sales in the country, according to figures from Global Data. 

More

Japanese Carmakers Face Catastrophic Profit Hit From Trump's Auto Tariffs | ZeroHedge

Five Spring Statement charts you need to see: Weaker growth, higher debt costs and fewer interest rate cuts

26 March 2025

Fresh forecasts on the outlook for the British economy were published on Wednesday alongside Chancellor Rachel Reeves' Spring Statement

The Office for Budget Responsibility's latest figures reflect bleaker economic prospects for the UK and globally since its last projections in Autumn.

Forecasts for economic growth, public debt, inflation and other key measures have been revised and reflect the impact of adjustments outlined by the Chancellor earlier today. 

Reeves told the House of Commons on Wednesday: 'Since autumn, the world has changed. 

'Europe is now facing a generational challenge to its collective security. 

'Global economic uncertainty has increased sharply, growth has slowed in many of Britain’s major trading partners, and borrowing costs have risen across most advanced economies. 

'As an open trading economy, the UK is not immune to these challenges.'

This is Money highlights the key data from the OBR's latest projections and how the outlook has changed.

Growth forecasts downgraded

The OBR halved its October GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2 to 1 per cent as the watchdog highlighted a 'structural weakness' it says is 'concentrated in productivity', which it also cut forecasts for.

It also pointed to 'cyclical, temporary, factors' such as higher interest rate expectations, increases in gas prices and 'elevated uncertainty'. 

The OBR now expects growth to average 1.75 per cent a year over the rest of the decade. 

Debt costs set to climb further  

The Chancellor's Spring Statement took place in the shadow of elevated government borrowing costs, which are taking up an ever-greater share of the Treasury's outgoings. 

But the OBR said on Wednesday it now expects longer-term borrowing costs to continue rising over the next five years - even as interest rates fall. 

Yields on 10-year gilts - the interest paid on public debt - have risen roughly 25 basis  points since October alongside similar moves in many other advanced economies.

The OBR now expects 10-year yields to average 4.8 per cent over the next few years to 2030, up from 4.4 per cent in October. 

More

Five Spring Statement charts you need to see: Weaker growth, higher debt costs and fewer interest rate cuts

FedEx Executive Issues Economy Warning

March 25, 2025

An executive at FedEx has issued a gloomy warning for the U.S. economy, which is already grappling with fears over an impending recession.

Last week, John Dietrich, executive vice president and chief financial officer for the delivery and logistics company, said: "I think it's reasonable to assume that the macro-environment is not going to significantly improve at least for the first half of [financial year] 2026."

Dietrich's comments came following the release of FedEx's third-quarter results, as the company lowered its full-year earnings and revenue guidance to reflect "continued weakness and uncertainty in the U.S. industrial economy."

Why It Matters

Economists and financial institutions have been voicing increasingly urgent concerns about the overall health of the U.S. economy, with many suggesting that the country is on the brink of a major economic downturn.

FedEx's guidance revision suggests that these warnings are being heeded by corporations themselves and that some of the country's largest firms are now pricing in the possibility of a recession in the near future.

What To Know

On Thursday, FedEx released its quarterly results for the period ending February 28. Despite posting increases in both revenue and profit, the company lowered its revenue and earnings forecasts for the full year, now projecting revenue to range from flat to slightly declining year-over-year, compared to its previous expectation of this remaining "approximately flat."

"Our revised earnings outlook reflects continued weakness and uncertainty in the U.S. industrial economy, which is constraining demand for our business-to-business services," said Dietrich.

FedEx's CFO is not alone in his predictions. According to a recent survey by CNBC, 60 percent of U.S. CFOs now expect a recession to occur in the second half of 2025, while an additional 15 percent believe this will take place in 2026. Seventy-five percent of respondents expressed being "somewhat pessimistic" about the U.S. economy, while 95 percent stated that policy uncertainty from the administration was affecting their decision-making.

Last week, Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi told CNN that it felt like the country was being "pushed into a recession." The chances of this occurring, he added, were "uncomfortably high" as a result of President Trump's tariff policies.

This pessimism has continued to spread into the consumer space, according to data released on Tuesday morning.

According to The Conference Board, consumer confidence retreated for its fourth straight month in March, dropping to its lowest level since February 2021. The Expectations Index, which reflects consumers' short-term outlooks for income, business, and labor market conditions, fell to 65.2—its lowest level in 12 years and below the 80-point threshold that the research firm identifies as a signal of an impending recession.

More

FedEx Executive Issues Economy Warning

Treasury Department is set to lay off a ‘substantial’ number of employees, official says

Published Wed, Mar 26 2025 7:56 AM EDT

The Treasury Department is planning to furlough a “substantial” level of its workforce in conjunction with Elon Musk’s efforts to shrink the size of the federal government, according to a court document.

As part of a complaint in a related case, Trevor Norris, the department’s deputy assistant secretary in human resources, indicated that the layoffs will be coming as part of the Department of Government Efficiency’s ongoing moves to cut the federal employee rolls.

In a sworn statement, Norris said the Treasury is wrapping up plans to comply with President Donald Trump’s executive order backing DOGE’s activity. The Treasury currently has more than 100,000 employees.

“These plans will be tailored for each bureau, and in many cases will require separations of substantial numbers of employees through reductions in force (RIFs),” Norris said in an affidavit.

The case involves a complaint by the state of Maryland to get a stay on the layoffs. In recent days, three judges have issued restraining orders putting temporary halts on DOGE’s efforts to hit several departments.

“The Treasury Department is considering a number of measures to increase efficiency, including a rollback of wasteful Biden-era hiring surges, and consolidation of critical support functions to improve both efficiency and quality of service,” a Treasury spokesperson said in a statement. “No final decisions have yet been made, and any current reporting to the contrary is false.”

Treasury Department is set to lay off a 'substantial' number of employees, official says

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Moody's Says US Fiscal Strength on Course for Continued Decline

By Reuters  March 25, 2025, at 10:02 a.m.

NEW YORK (Reuters) -Ratings agency Moody's said on Tuesday that the U.S.' fiscal strength is on track for a continued multi-year decline as budget deficits widen and debt becomes less affordable.

The agency said in a report that the country's fiscal health deteriorated further since Moody's lowered its outlook on the U.S. triple-A rating in November 2023.

The report comes amid heightened uncertainty in U.S. financial markets as President Donald Trump's decision to impose punitive tariffs on key trading partners has sparked investor fears of higher price pressures and a sharp economic slowdown.

"Even in a very positive and low probability economic and financial scenario, debt affordability remains materially weaker than for other Aaa-rated and highly rated sovereigns," Moody's said.

It projects debt to gross domestic product, a key ratio in assessing a country's finances, will rise to around 130% by 2035 from nearly 100% in 2025. Debt affordability will worsen at a faster rate, with interest payments accounting for 30% of revenue by 2035 from 9% in 2021, it said.

Moody's is the last among major ratings agencies to keep a top, triple-A rating for U.S. sovereign debt, though it lowered its outlook in late 2023 due to wider fiscal deficits and higher interest debt payments.

Fitch cut the U.S. sovereign rating by one notch to AA+ from AAA in 2023, citing fiscal deterioration and repeated down-the-wire debt ceiling negotiations that threaten the government’s ability to pay its bills. It was the second major rating agency to strip the United States of its top triple-A rating, after Standard & Poor's did so after the 2011 debt ceiling crisis.

Investors use credit ratings to assess the risk profile of companies and governments when they raise financing in debt capital markets. Generally, the lower a borrower's rating, the higher its financing costs.

Moody's said on Tuesday that lower U.S. debt affordability has meant that the central role of the dollar and the Treasury market in global financial markets has become more critical in supporting the triple-A rating.

However, the potential negative economic impact of tariffs as well as the prospect of unfunded tax cuts complicates the picture.

"We see diminished prospects that these strengths will continue to offset widening fiscal deficits and declining debt affordability," it said.

Republicans are pushing a $4.5 trillion tax cut extension, but its impact on deficits remains uncertain without major spending cuts, which could clash with Trump’s pledges to protect social programs.

Moody's said large spending cuts that require bipartisan support in Congress will be politically difficult to implement.

Other spending cuts, such as the ones spearheaded by the newly established Department of Government Efficiency, led by Elon Musk to reduce wasteful spending, are minor compared to mandatory expenditures and are unlikely to generate substantial savings in the short term.

Tariffs may offer temporary revenue support, but over time, persistently high tariffs are likely to hinder growth, counteracting their positive effect on revenues, it said.

Moody's Says US Fiscal Strength on Course for Continued Decline

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.


Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Why are a growing number of airlines banning power banks on flights?

26 March 2025

Several airlines in Asia are tightening rules on carrying lithium batteries on planes following a series of overheating and fire incidents on board.

A portable power bank with a lithium battery has been found to be a possible source of a fire that engulfed an Air Busan plane in January while waiting for takeoff, South Korea’s transport ministry said in a press release, citing the investigation committee and forensic services.

Investigators found “multiple electrical melting marks from the remains of a power bank,” the release said.

Travelers often pack lithium-ion battery power banks to charge their phones, tablets, laptops and cameras on the go. The pocket-sized devices keep gadgets fueled to play games or watch downloaded movies to stay entertained on long-haul flights.

But manufacturer issues, misuse and aging can heighten the risk from the batteries, which use flammable materials, potentially posing a fire danger on flights. More than 500 in-flight lithium battery incidents involving smoke, fire, or extreme heat have been recorded by the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in the past two decades.

Which airlines have changed their rules?

South Korea implemented nationwide restrictions that took effect this month, banning passengers from storing power banks and e-cigarettes in overhead cabins on all of the country’s airlines. Passengers can store power banks either in the seat pocket or under the seat.

Charging a power bank on the plane by plugging it into the seat’s USB outlet is also prohibited, according to the new regulations.

“Sockets of a power bank should be covered with friction tape or put in a protective pouch or a plastic bag (eg. zipped bag) so they don’t touch other metals,” the country’s transport ministry said.

Thai Airways announced passengers are no longer allowed to use or charge power banks on flights from March 15, following “incidents of in-flight fires on international airlines, suspected to be linked to power bank usage.

Starting in April, Singapore Airlines is banning passengers from using power banks to charge phones and personal devices in-flight. Power banks are also not allowed to be charged using aircraft USB ports.

Low-cost carrier Air Asia said it will require passengers to store power banks under the seat or in the seat pocket, and prohibit charging portable electronic devices throughout the flight.

Taiwan’s major carriers, EVA Air, China Airlines, and Uni Air, have also banned the use of portable chargers in-flight.

Hong Kong’s aviation regulator said it will prohibit passengers from using power banks during flights and from storing lithium batteries in the overhead cabins from April 7. The change comes after a Hong Kong Airlines flight from the Chinese city of Hangzhou was forced to divert after a portable charging device reportedly triggered a fire in an overhead compartment.

More

Why are a growing number of airlines banning power banks on flights?

Passenger’s lost phone causes Air France flight to cut short nine-hour journey

26 March 2025

An Air France flight was forced to make a U-turn to Paris mid-air after a missing phone sparked safety concerns in the cabin.

Flight AF750 from Paris Orly to Pointe-a-Pitre, Guadeloupe, was over an hour into the almost nine-hour journey when a passenger reported a lost mobile phone on Friday (21 March).

According to an AirLive report, the Air France flight departed Paris at 11.51am CET before turning around and starting to circle at 31,000ft over the west coast of France.

The crew decided to return the aircraft to Paris Orly as a “precautionary measure” after a passenger's mobile phone could not be located despite extensive search efforts, said the outlet.

The Boeing 777-300ER, with 375 passengers and 12 cabin crew onboard, safely landed back in the French capital at 3.25pm, two hours and 16 minutes after it had taken off.

Maintenance teams were reportedly deployed to locate the missing phone, and the aircraft departed for Guadeloupe just 20 minutes later.

----Lithium-ion batteries commonly found in smartphones and power banks pose a fire risk to aircraft and confined cabin spaces if they are damaged or overheated.

For this reason, you cannot typically check power banks in your luggage due to safety concerns – these must be carried in cabin baggage only.

The Independent has contacted Air France for comment.

Passenger’s lost phone causes Air France flight to cut short nine-hour journey

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

“Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that’s even remotely true!”

Homer Simpson.

Wednesday, 26 March 2025

UK Mini Budget Day. Tax Rise Day. US Consumer Confidence Dives.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1642 -10          Brent Crude 73.25

Spot Gold 3021               US 2 Year Yield 3.96  -0.08  

US Federal Debt. 36.643 trillion!!

If ignorance is bliss, why isn't the world happier?

Mark Twain

In the UK, tax rise day, as the inept, hard left, socialist government issues a second tax raising budget in less than a year.

In the USA, a dodgy relief rally in the greatly disconnected stock casinos from President Trump’s great uncertainty over tariffs, due to take effect on April 2nd.

From Asia, through Europe to the America’s, a massive shock is about to hit the global economy, friend as foe alike. Just don’t let on to the perma bulls gambling in the stock casinos.

Asia markets trade mostly higher after Wall Street extends gains on hopes of softer Trump tariffs

Updated Wed, Mar 26 2025 1:34 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets traded higher Wednesday, tracking Wall Street gains on expectations that U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs could be softer than expected earlier. 

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.71% to close at 7,999.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 1.03%, while the Topix added 0.73%. South Korea’s Kospi climbed 1.17% while the small-cap Kosdaq traded 0.53% higher.

Thailand’s SET Index rose 0.53% after Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra survived a no-confidence vote.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.16% while mainland China’s CSI 300 dipped 0.25%. The Hang Seng Tech index, which tracks the 30 largest technology companies listed in Hong Kong is 0.61% higher as it dances around the brink of correction.

According to reports from The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg, the White House’s planned tariffs set for April 2 are expected to be narrow in scope. Trump also on Friday suggested some “flexibility” for his reciprocal tariff plans for trading partners. However, U.S. consumers’ confidence is taking a hit.

“As President Trump prepares to escalate the trade war next week, U.S. consumers are increasingly inflation-weary, their finances are more fragile, and they face higher risks in the labor market,” Morning Consult wrote in a note, adding that U.S. consumers are expected to cut spending across all income brackets.

U.S. stock futures were little changed after the S&P 500 posted a marginal gain, marking its third positive session in a row.

Overnight in the U.S., all three major averages closed higher. The S&P 500 posted a slim gain, adding 0.16% to close at 5,776.65. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.46% and ended at 18,271.86. The Dow Jones Industrial Average crept higher by 4.18 points, or 0.01%, to settle at 42,587.50.

Asia-Pacific markets live: Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225

Recession is coming before end of 2025, generally ‘pessimistic’ corporate CFOs say: CNBC survey

Published Tue, Mar 25 2025 7:33 AM EDT Updated Tue, Mar 25 2025 10:28 AM EDT

The stock market experienced a relief rally to start the week, and attempted to keep the comeback going on Tuesday morning, as comments from the Trump economic team over the weekend suggested a softer stance on tariffs. But within the boardroom, hope is not likely to replace caution any time soon.

Many executives in the C-suite and across the economy remain disturbed about the trade war outlook and a White House that has given every indication it is ideologically committed to a major change in global economic policy. Shifting messages from President Trump that continue to add confusion to the tariff planning process haven’t helped.

In a word, the “pessimism” has crept back in where the animal spirits had been after Trump’s election. That’s one way to sum up the results from the latest CNBC CFO Council quarterly survey for Q1 2025. While some chief financial officers said Trump is doing what he promised on the campaign trail, many CFOs said the way he is going about delivering on his agenda is not what was expected. 

“Too chaotic for business to navigate effectively” was how one CFO respondent framed their view of Trump’s second term to date. 
 
“Extreme”; “Disruptive”; “Aggressive”; “A wild ride,” were some of the other ways CFOs portrayed their current view. 

It all adds up to a majority of CFOs (60%) saying they expect a recession in the second half of the year – another 15% say a recession will hit in 2026.

Just a quarter ago, when the recession question in the quarterly survey was laid on the Fed rather than Trump – in the Q4 2024 survey, we asked whether the central bank’s efforts to tame inflation would lead to an economic slump – only 7% of CFOs said they thought that was on the calendar for 2025. 

In recent weeks, recession has become a more popular default setting in the market, for the first time since the Fed began aggressively raising interest rates to beat back runaway inflation in March 2022. The odds of recession are running as high as 50% at some financial firms, new “recession watch” indicators are being created, and other recent CNBC surveying, among money managers and economists, shows a spike in recession fears.

The CFO Council survey is a sampling of views from chief financial officers at large organizations across sectors of the U.S. economy, with 20 respondents included the Q1 survey conducted between March 10 and March 21.

U.S. trade policy is the primary reason for the new economic downturn base case. It is now being cited as the top external business risk by CFOs, at 30%, followed by the related risks: inflation (25%) and consumer demand (20%), with the latest reading on consumer confidence in income, business and job prospects hitting a 12-year low.  

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Recession is coming, 'pessimistic' corporate CFOs say: CNBC survey

In other news, poor John Bull gets his pocket picked yet again.

UK consumer confidence is plummeting warns KPMG

25 March 2025

Three in five Brits believe the UK economy is worsening, a new survey ran by KPMG has shown, as Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Spring Statement risks failing to lift people’s spirits. 

Reeves is set to announce policies aimed at swinging business confidence at her Spring Statement on Wednesday but a new survey suggests consumers are increasingly downbeat about the economy. 

Just under a half of respondents told One Poll, which was commissioned by KPMG, that they are planning to cut back spending on everyday items, as some 36 per cent of people said they are saving more as a contingency. 

The survey of 3,000 consumers also showed that a growing number of people said they felt financially insecure. 

One in 50 people said they are now incurring debt to pay their bills. 

The latest data showing a slump in consumer confidence sends a final warning to the Chancellor ahead of her Spring Statement. 

The Chancellor is not expected to provide some relief to consumers and make changes to taxes. 

Meanwhile, her tax hikes, announced in the Autumn Budget, are set to bite businesses in April. 

Those taxes include increases to national insurance contributions (NICs) and changes to inheritance tax bands. 

It means more people will have to pay taxes on assets from next month as the government seeks to take in an extra £40bn in tax receipts. 

Businesses are also likely to pass on costs to consumers, according to various surveys, with the Bank of England predicting inflation to hit a peak of 3.75 per cent this year. 

Consumers are already responding to high inflation of around three per cent in January as consumers have eaten out less and bought fewer clothes, according to the survey. 

Linda Ellet, KPMG’s head of consumer and detail, said the research shows that most people think the economy is “heading in the wrong direction”. 

“This nervousness about the economy is leading many, including some of those who are secure in their current personal financial circumstances, to cut everyday spend, defer big ticket buying, and save more.

“Cautious consumers are certainly preparing for the potential impact on them from what they believe to be a worsening economy.  

Ellet also said the Chancellor should try to rectify consumer confidence.

“This week’s Spring Statement needs to give people confidence in the longer-term UK economic outlook,” she added. 

UK consumer confidence is plummeting warns KPMG

Small businesses to offload Reeves’ tax hikes onto customers

Tuesday 25 March 2025 10:57 am

Small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) have taken steps to combat the Chancellor’s tax hikes as they brace for further changes in Reeves’ Spring Statement.

Fresh research from Grant Thornton showed 71 per cent of SMEs have formed plans to offload rising employment costs onto consumers – a 15 per cent increase from December.

Almost seven in ten businesses said they planned to reduce or freeze hiring in the next six months as they battled costs.

SMEs have suffered mounting pressure since the Autumn Budget, with the government’s flurry of tax increases and employment reforms hitting business confidence.

Rachel Reeves announced in the Budget that employers’ national insurance contributions would rise by 1.2 per cent, and upped the national minimum wage across all age rates.

Labour’s Employment Bill has created a headache for SMEs, with the radical overhaul of worker’s rights sparking fears for employers that they will be more easily subjected to lawsuits.

However, as SMEs prepare to battle the fallout of the budget, optimism in the mid-market has experienced an uptick, with 85 per cent of firms optimistic about their revenue growth over the next six months.

Giles Mullins, head of core advisory at Grant Thornton UK, said: “How long this confidence will last though remains to be seen.

“As we head towards the Spring Statement, the majority of mid-sized businesses are also expecting the Chancellor to increase taxes on businesses again this year.”

This marks a stark difference from larger firms, who had a ten point decrease in their optimism on the UK economy.

Mullins said larger businesses’ exposure to the “increasingly turbulent international geopolitical environment” is likely weighing upon their future outlook.

“After years of high inflation, interest rate increases and economic and political turmoil, businesses of all sizes are used to adapting to changing cost environments, putting plans in place to protect their operations and reduce the impact to their bottom line and profit growth.

“But mid-sized businesses may be able to adapt more quickly to the shifting economic realities and more easily make changes to mitigate the impact of these employment costs on their operations than larger businesses, who may be faced with a larger wage bill,” he added.

Small businesses to offload Reeves' tax hikes onto customers

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

US Consumer Sentiment Takes Another Dive

March 25, 2025 at 9:51 PM GMT

US consumer confidence hit the lowest level in four years as higher prices and President Donald Trump’s escalating tariff war stoke concerns among everyday Americans about the future of the economy—and re-emerging inflation. 

The Conference Board’s gauge of confidence decreased 7.2 points to 92.9 while the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a reading of 94. A measure of expectations for the next six months dropped nearly 10 points to 65.2, the lowest in 12 years, while a gauge of present conditions declined more modestly. The dollar, meanwhile, is headed for its worst month in over a year.

Consumer sentiment surveys from both the Conference Board and the University of Michigan have been dismal of late, as Trump’s protectionist rhetoric, global retaliation and business uncertainty fuel a resurgence in the rising prices the 78-year-old Republican promised to end. Companies have warned of rising costs and less demand, coinciding with economists’ warnings that the US could soon face the curses of stagflation and recession.

Still, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell reminded not too long ago, “hard data” suggests the economy is still on a solid footing. Unemployment remains low and manufacturing activity picked up in February. So the big question for economists and policymakers now is if the weak sentiment trend translates into observable behavior, like a marked pullback in spending.

US Consumer Sentiment Takes Another Dive: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg
Wall Street braces for Trump’s April 2 tariff deadline—it foresees 18% EU import duties and a 43% chance of a U.S. recession

March 24, 2025

·         Analysts are closely watching April 2 for potential new U.S. tariff announcements, as President Trump has already imposed and threatened further tariffs on key trading partners, including the EU, Canada, Mexico, and China. Market concerns about a possible recession are rising, with Deutsche Bank reporting a 43% average expectation of a downturn, while opinions within Trump's cabinet remain divided on the economic impact of his trade policies.

Analysts have a date metaphorically circled in the calendar a little over a week from now: April 2, the day further tariff pledges are expected to be confirmed, and potentially the moment when a universal tariff is announced.

Hikes have already been threatened, rescinded, and then ultimately placed on key trading partners like Canada and Mexico, with increases also placed on imports coming from China.

Since President Trump took office in late January, tariffs have also been placed on goods coming out of the EU, such as steel, with further policy expected to be announced.

Markets have been chided by Deutsche Bank before for failing to take the Oval Office at its word, but research out of the financial giant now shows that analysts are waking up to the threat.

In its March global markets survey—which spoke to 400 market makers across the world—Deutsche Bank found sentiment about the extremity of Trump's tariff regime is moving towards the upper end.

For example, on a scale of zero to 10 (zero being no additional tariffs and 10 being an extreme regime) the December 2024 average was a five.

By March this had risen to approximately six, with the average dragged up by more analysts answering at the higher end of the scale.

The note penned by research strategist Jim Reid adds: "However, markets are expecting Europe to face a sustained U.S. tariff rate of 18% which feels higher than what is priced in."

Having asked analysts for their sustained rate, not the peak at which tariffs are likely to start during negotiations, the majority of respondents (26%) said 10% to 15%. However, a further 24% and 22% of correspondents chose 15% to 20% and 20% to 25% respectively.

It comes after Trump adopted a tougher stance on the EU when running for his second term. On the campaign trail the Republican politician said he would make no exceptions for one of America's closest trading partners, saying: “I’ll tell you what, the European Union sounds so nice, so lovely, right? All the nice European little countries that get together.”

Per Reuters, he added: “They don’t take our cars. They don’t take our farm products. They sell millions and millions of cars in the United States. No, no, no, they are going to have to pay a big price.” 

This threat has been followed up since, with Trump telling his cabinet in February that while he “loves the countries of Europe,” the EU had been formed to “screw” the United States, saying: “That’s the purpose of it. And they’ve done a good job of it.”

As Reid points out, this higher-for-longer outlook amid tense geopolitics goes beyond the market's current pricing strategy. As JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon recently pointed out, tariffs can do “good stuff” that is only modestly inflationary by “0.1% or 0.2%.”

However the man paid $39 million for his work in 2024 added that a universal 25% tariff on all imports would be, in his view, “quite recessionary and inflationary.”

More

Wall Street braces for Trump’s April 2 tariff deadline—it foresees 18% EU import duties and a 43% chance of a U.S. recession

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Home battery demand soars amid Americas power grid struggles

24 March 2025

For years, Americans have been blanketing their homes with scads of solar panels. Now, they’re adding a growing number of batteries to store that electricity and protect against blackouts.

Battery storage in US homes surged by 64% in 2024 compared to the previous year, outpacing increases in commercial and utility installations, according to new data from Wood Mackenzie and the American Clean Power Association, a trade group. These storage units are now in about half a million homes and collectively hold 3,028 megawatt-hours of electricity. 

“The market has pretty much doubled in two years,” said Wood Mackenzie research analyst Hanna Nuttall. “That’s a pretty significant rate of growth.”

Homeowners are socking away power for a number of reasons, particularly to avoid fluctuating electricity rates and blackouts. Those with solar panels, meanwhile, can power their homes more cheaply by keeping the electrons they generate instead of selling them back to the grid, which typically pays lower rates than the retail price of electricity.

Solar and storage go hand in hand and the vast majority of home batteries are wired to an array of panels, Nuttal said. 

It also helps that costs for storage systems have plummeted, in part because battery makers have switched to cheaper chemical recipes. Utilities, for example, saw battery costs drop by 16% in the past year, according to Wood Mackenzie. Prices for a residential solar array have fallen as well and are near an all-time low. 

Despite the jump in home battery installations, the US trails Europe. In Germany and Italy, over 70% of new home solar arrays are hitched to batteries and many older systems are as well.  In the US, meanwhile, there are now almost 5.3 million homes with solar but only about 10% have battery storage.

The US battery boom is concentrated in sunny places — namely California and Texas. However, it’s starting to spread in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic as well. 

“It’s definitely the more technologically savvy people who are springing for storage,” Nuttall said. “But in states where resiliency is a challenge, that’s where we’re seeing more general adoption.”

Puerto Rican homeowners, for example, have been buying battery storage to keep the lights on during hurricane season.

More

Home battery demand soars amid Americas power grid struggles

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

I saw a startling sight today, a politician with his hands in his own pockets.

Mark Twain