Baltic
Dry Index. 1627 -129 Brent Crude 73.22
Spot Gold 2637 US 2 Year Yield 4.27 -0.02
The international monetary order is more precarious by far today than it was in 1929. Then, gold was international money, incorruptible, unmanageable, and unchangeable. Today, the U.S. dollar serves as the international medium of exchange, managed by Washington politicians and Federal Reserve officials, manipulated from day to day, and serving political goals and ambitions. This difference alone sounds the alarm to all perceptive observers.
Hans F. Sennholz.
In the stock casinos, still more disconnect from a global economy rolling over.
Will the anti-Trump deep state and demoralised liberals try to destabilise stocks and the US economy right after President Trump resumes power?
Asia markets mostly lower as China keeps lending
rates steady; investors assess Japan trade data
Updated Wed, Nov 20 2024 12:26 AM EST
Asia-Pacific markets were mostly lower
Wednesday, following a mixed day on Wall Street amid mounting geopolitical
tensions between Ukraine and Russia.
Investors assessed October
trade data out of Japan. Export growth came in at 3.1% year over year,
topping estimates by economists polled by Reuters and up from a 1.7% drop in
September. Import growth also beat estimates at 0.4% but was down from 2.1% the
prior month.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.10% in
choppy trading, while the Topix lost 0.25%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was was down
0.11%, while Mainland China’s CSI 300 was up 0.27%.
China’s central bank left its benchmark
lending rates unchanged on Wednesday after cutting them in October.
South Korea’s Kospi was up 0.66% while the
Kosdaq Index rose 0.50%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.57%
to end the day at 8326.3.
Overnight in the U.S., the Nasdaq popped 1.04% to
finish at 18,987.47, while the S&P
500 gained 0.4% to end at 5,916.98. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped
120.66 points, or 0.28%, to settle at 43,268.94.
The market pressure began overnight after
Russian President Vladimir
Putin warned the U.S. that the threshold for the use of nuclear
weapons had lowered, a new stance coming after President Joe Biden allowed
Ukraine to use U.S. weapons to strike inside Russia.
Losses then accelerated on reports that
Ukraine hit the Russian border region Bryansk with U.S.-made missiles.
Asia markets live: Japan trade data, China lending rates
Nasdaq jumps 1% as Wall Street looks past
Russia-Ukraine tensions, Nvidia shares surge: Live updates
Updated Tue, Nov 19 2024 4:36 PM EST
The Nasdaq Composite gained Tuesday,
driven by Nvidia shares, as investors shrugged off concerns of mounting
geopolitical tensions between Ukraine and Russia.
The Nasdaq popped 1.04% to
finish at 18,987.47, while the S&P
500 gained 0.4% to end at 5,916.98. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped
120.66 points, or 0.28%, to settle at 43,268.94.
One bright spot was technology stocks
and Nvidia, which gained
nearly 5% ahead of its closely watched earnings report Wednesday. Walmart added 3% after
posting better-than-expected
earnings and hiking its outlook on strong discretionary
spending. Tesla rose
2%, bringing its month-to-date rally to 38%. Shares are headed for their best
month since January 2023. Alphabet and Amazon also added more than
1% each.
“The underlying trend for the market is
positive,” said Keith Lerner, Truist’s co-chief investment officer. “The
geopolitical stuff — that’s certainly a risk — but you’re seeing some modest
selling. I’m not seeing panic. It’s more of a digestion of the recent gains.”
The market pressure began overnight after
Russian President Vladimir
Putin warned the U.S. that the threshold for the use of nuclear
weapons had lowered, a new stance coming after President Joe Biden allowed
Ukraine to use U.S. weapons to strike inside Russia.
Then losses accelerated on news Ukraine
hit the Russian border region Bryansk with U.S.-made missiles, according to the
Russian military. The New York Times confirmed the attack, citing U.S. and
Ukrainian officials. The attack was on an ammunition warehouse, according to
the report.
“Rising geopolitical tensions has been and
continues to be a risk for markets,” said Gaurav Mallik, chief investment
officer at Pallas Capital Advisors. “The combination of Russia ratcheting up
its war rhetoric and uncertainty about how the incoming U.S. presidential
administration will respond, is a recipe for stock market volatility.”
Treasury prices increased as investors
moved into the safe haven, driving yields lower. Gold futures also gained.
The CBOE Volatility Index,
or VIX, considered the best “fear gauge” on Wall Street, spiked at around 16.
Stock market news for Nov. 19, 2024
In other news.
Japan exports rise more than expected in
October, rebounding from 43-month low
Published Tue, Nov 19 2024 7:18 PM EST
Japan’s exports posted a 3.1% rise in October compared
to a year ago, rebounding from a fall in September that marked a 43-month low.
The climb beat expectations of a 2.2% rise
from economists polled by Reuters, and is a reversal from the 1.7% fall in
September.
Government data showed that Japanese
exports increased the most to the Middle East region, recording a 35.4% rise,
compared to the same period a year ago.
Imports to Asia’s second largest economy
by GDP rose 0.4%, compared to expectations of a 0.3% fall from the Reuters
poll.
As such, Japan’s trade deficit expanded to
461.2 billion yen ($2.98 billion), wider than the Reuters poll expectations of
360.4 billion and compared to September’s revised figure of 294.1 billion yen.
In a Nov. 19 note, Daniel Hurley, who
is global equities portfolio specialist at T. Rowe Price, said that the key
area to monitor for Japan equities would be U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s
plans for tariffs and trade relationships with partners.
Tariffs are clearly the biggest risk for
an open and exporting economy like Japan’s, he said, while also pointing out
that the country has a very close relationship with the U.S., and Trump in
particular.
He added: “Any escalation of tensions
between the U.S. and China on tariffs and trade is likely to weigh upon global
trade and global growth. Japan, as an open and cyclical economy, will be
impacted by any deterioration in global trade and the global economy.”
Japan exports rise more than expected, rebounding from 43-month low
China expectedly keeps benchmark lending rates
steady as Beijing assesses stimulus measures
Published Tue, Nov 19 2024 8:15 PM EST
China’s central bank on Wednesday kept major benchmark lending rates unchanged, as
Beijing assesses the effects of its recent stimulus measures.
The People’s Bank of China said it would
keep the 1-year loan prime rate at 3.1%, and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%.
Market watchers polled by Reuters had expected PBOC to keep the
lending rates unchanged this month.
There was “no immediate need to adjust the
LPR this month,” said Bruce Pang, chief economist and head of research for
Greater China at JLL, adding that the Chinese leaders were likely still
assessing the impact of recent measures aimed at boosting the economy.
The record-low net interest margins at
Chinese commercial banks have limited their ability to support lower lending
rates, Pang said, “while another policy rate cut before the end of the year
seems unlikely, there remains potential for interest rate cuts in 2025.”
The 1-year LPR affects corporate and most
household loans in China, while the 5-year LPR acts as a benchmark for mortgage
rates.
The rate decision came
after a cut of 25 basis points to both the 1-year and 5-year LPRs last
month, and followed China’s
October economic data that underscored lackluster momentum in the
economy, despite the recent barrage of stimulus announcements.
In October, China reported
slower-than-expected industrial production and fixed asset investment growth.
The annual decline of real estate investment from January to October also
steepened from a year ago.
Only retail sales beat expectations, with
a 4.8% year-on-year increase, indicating that recent stimulus had started
seeping into certain sectors of the economy.
Since late September, Chinese
authorities have ramped up stimulus announcements to spur economic
growth, which has been dragged down by a prolonged property crisis as well as
weak consumer and business sentiment.
Earlier this month, the Ministry of
Finance unveiled a 5-year
fiscal package totaling 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) to tackle
local government debt problems, while signaling more economic support could
come next year.
China’s central bank also planned to
maintain supportive monetary policy, said Governor Pan Gongsheng, who had
indicated in October that there was still room to cut several key policy rates
by end of the year.
Morgan Stanley expects China’s growth to
slow to around 4% in each of the next two years, and has downgraded Chinese
equities to “slight underweight” in a note dated Sunday, naming a deflationary
environment and rising trade tensions as risks.
More
China keeps benchmark lending rates steady as Beijing assesses stimulus measures
Trump tariffs to push down U.S. growth ‘a great
deal’ going into 2026, Morgan Stanley warns
Published Tue, Nov 19 2024 10:13 PM EST
Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs will dent
U.S. economic growth going into 2026, said Morgan Stanley’s chief global
economist Seth Carpenter.
President-elect Trump has stated that he
intends to impose a blanket tariff of 10% to 20% on all imports, along
with extra tariffs ranging from 60% to 100% on goods imported from China.
During the September Presidential debate, he described this approach as a means
to extract funds from competing countries.
There is also a question of when and how
swiftly these tariffs get implemented. In the event that they are enacted all
at once, they could result in a “big negative shock” to the economy, Carpenter
told CNBC’s Sri Jegarajah on the sidelines of Morgan Stanley’s annual Asia
Pacific Summit in Singapore.
Carpenter, who maintained Morgan Stanley’s
base case of these tariffs being spread over 2025, said they would lead to
higher inflation.
“Then into 2026, we think growth starts to
come down a great deal in the U.S. because of those tariffs and some of the
other policies,” he cautioned.
“Very clear, tariffs push up inflation.
Very clear, tariffs are a drag on growth for the U.S., not just for the
countries that the tariffs are put on,” Carpenter added.
Mark Malek, CIO at brokerage firm Siebert
noted that if the proposed tariffs are levied, especially on top of those
already imposed by the Joe Biden administration, a slew of sectors including
the automobile, consumer electronics, machinery, construction and retail space
would see higher inflation.
Trump’s proposed 60% tariff on Chinese
goods, along with Biden’s existing 100% tariff on Chinese-made EVs, will
“significantly impact” the auto industry, while a universal 10% tariff on
consumer electronics’ imports would increase costs for companies such as Tesla,
Microsoft and Apple, Malek said. These higher costs will will likely be passed
along to consumers, he added.
Though the U.S. consumer price index climbed
2.6% in October compared to a year ago, slightly more than September’s
2.4%, inflation has ebbed in the U.S. after years, and has prompted the U.S.
Federal Reserve to cut rates.
Should sweeping tariffs be enacted,
markets could price out interest rate cuts entirely for 2025, said Ben Emons,
chief investment officer and founder of FedWatch Advisors, adding that tariffs
could also “restrain” growth.
Trump tariffs to push down U.S. growth going into 2026: Morgan Stanley
Finally, more layoffs at troubled Boeing.
Boeing to lay off over 2,500 workers in US as part
of sweeping cuts
By Daniel Catchpole and Allison Lampert November 19,
20246:07 AM GMT
Nov 18 (Reuters) - Boeing (BA.N), opens new
tab will
lay off more than 2,500 workers in the U.S. states of Washington, Oregon, South
Carolina and Missouri, according to federally required filings posted on Monday
and a union official, as part of the debt-heavy U.S. planemaker's plan to cut 17,000 jobs, or 10% of its
global workforce.
Nearly 2,200 layoff notices went to
workers in Washington and another 220 in South Carolina, the two states where
Boeing builds commercial airliners. Boeing declined to comment on the layoffs
on Monday.
The aerospace giant started telling
affected U.S. workers on Wednesday that they will stay on Boeing's payroll
until Jan. 17, to comply with federal requirements to notify employees at least
60 days prior to ending their employment.
News that Boeing would send out the Worker
Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) in mid-November was widely
expected. Another round is expected in December. Boeing could also use
workforce attrition, selective hiring and sales of subsidiaries to reduce
workforce.
Boeing shares gained 2.6% to close at
$143.87 on Monday.
In October, Boeing's new CEO, Kelly Ortberg, said the
company does not intend to "take people off production or out of the
engineering labs." Industry-watchers have been waiting for the WARNs for
some indication of how the layoffs could affect workers in the company's key
manufacturing hubs.
However, several hundred engineers and
production workers were among those who received pink
slips last
week.
The Society of Professional Engineering
Employees in Aerospace said 438 of the union's members at Boeing received
layoff notices last week, including 218 engineers and 220 technicians.
The International Association of
Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) District Lodge 837 in St. Louis said
Boeing sent notices to 111 members, most of whom made wing components for the
777X.
Who is being laid off seems to vary
between sections within Boeing, several non-union workers who received WARNs
told Reuters.
More
Boeing to lay off over 2,500 workers in US as part of sweeping cuts | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
The history of fiat money is little more than a register of
monetary follies and inflations. Our present age merely affords another entry
in this dismal register.
Hans F. Sennholz.
Why
one veteran economist is doubling down on his 2025 recession call after Trump's
victory
November
18, 2023
The
US economy is still likely to slow into a recession next year —
and Trump's election victory may have made the economic outlook even more
challenging, Steve
Hanke,
a top economist, said.
The
Johns Hopkins professor, who's warned of a coming downturn for months, said he
was sticking to his 2025 recession call in an interview with
NYSE TV Live on
Friday. That's mainly because of a concerning trend in the money
supply,
he said, referring to the total volume of money flowing around markets and the
economy.
M2,
one class of the money supply, shrank from mid-2022 to March 2024, according to
Federal Reserve data. That's a rare trend that's only happened four times over
the past century and has ended in a recession in every instance, Hanke said.
The
M2 money supply started to re-expand this year, rising 2.47% year-over-year at
the end of September. But that rate remains well-below the 6% growth Hanke
thinks is needed to maintain inflation at the Fed's target rate — a sign, in
his view, that the economy is growing too slowly.
"My
view is that the economy is going to continue to slow down and probably will
experience a recession next year," Hanke said.
"The
fuel for the economy, to make it simple, is the money supply. And what's going
on in the money supply? And if you get significant changes in it, you get
significant changes in nominal GDP," he said.
Trump's
protectionist economic policies could also be a "big negative" for
the economy, Hanke added.
Economists
say some aspects of Trump's agenda, like his plan to levy steep tariffs on US
imports, could boost economic
growth,
which would challenge Hanke's recession outlook. And some see the policies
as inflationary, which
complicates the deflation piece of Hanke's argument.
If
imposing tariffs raises costs for consumers, that could backfire on the US
economy, as higher prices could lead consumers to demand fewer goods, Hanke
said.
"It's
very clear. If you put tariffs on imports, it's like putting a sales tax on
those imports. And if you put a sales tax on something, what happens? People
don't demand as much of it," he said.
More
Why one veteran
economist is doubling down on his 2025 recession call after Trump's victory
Audi Pulls the Plug on Another Model as Buyers Look Elsewhere
19
November 2024
The
future of Audi’s flagship electric SUV, the Q8 e-tron, looks increasingly grim
as Volkswagen confirms the collapse of talks to sell the Brussels factory where
it’s produced.
Hopes
for the survival of Audi’s Q8 e-tron were dashed when a potential buyer for the
596,570-square-meter Brussels plant backed out of negotiations. The facility,
which has churned out over 8 million vehicles since 1949 and employs more than
3,000 workers, is now slated for closure in February 2025.
Volkswagen,
Audi’s parent company, revealed that discussions with as many as 26 potential
buyers—including Chinese electric carmaker Nio—had been ongoing.
However,
a spokesperson recently confirmed, “There is no potential investor for the
site, so the active search for an investor is over.”
According
to Automotive
News Europe,
with the focus now shifting to managing staff layoffs, the plant’s closure
signals the likely end of Q8 e-tron production.
The
Audi Q8 e-tron has faced mounting challenges, with demand in its segment sharply
declining. In July 2024, Audi acknowledged the slump, stating the Q8 e-tron was
experiencing an “intensified drop in demand” and hinting at an early end to
production.
If
no alternative for the Brussels factory is found, Audi warned the plant’s
closure would also mean the cessation of the Q8 e-tron line.
The
electric SUV, originally introduced as the Audi ‘e-tron’ in 2020 and rebranded
as the Q8 e-tron in 2022, was aimed at competing with rivals like the BMW iX,
Mercedes-Benz EQE, and Tesla Model X. However, sales have lagged significantly.
In
Australia, Audi sold just 154 Q8 e-trons in the first nine months of
2024—accounting for less than one-third of total Audi Q8 sales (535), which
include petrol and plug-in hybrid versions.
Broader
Cuts Across Volkswagen Group
The
Q8 e-tron’s demise is part of a broader restructuring within the Volkswagen
Group. Falling sales have prompted the company to announce the closure of three
European factories, including one in Germany, with up to 10,000 jobs at risk.
For
Audi’s once-promising Q8 e-tron, the writing is now on the wall.
Without
a buyer for the Brussels plant and with demand continuing to plummet, the
flagship electric SUV’s days appear numbered.
Audi Pulls the Plug on Another Model as Buyers Look Elsewhere
Rachel Reeves's tax changes torn apart in brutal letter by UK high street giants
19
November 2024
Britain's
largest retailers have warned that jobs will be lost and prices will rise
because of national insurance rises
announced at the Budget.
More
than 70 businesses including Tesco, Asda and Sainsbury's voiced their
concerns in an open letter to Chancellor Rachel Reeves, saying the
changes mean price hikes are a "certainty".
The
letter said: "We appreciate Government's focus on improving the fiscal
situation and investing in public services; we also recognise the role
businesses have in supporting this.
"But,
the sheer scale of new costs and the speed with which they occur create a
cumulative burden that will make job losses inevitable, and higher prices a
certainty."
Ms
Reeves revealed a £25.7 billion change to employers' national insurance
contributions in last month's Budget, which would increase the rate of the tax
and the threshold at which firms must pay.
But
businesses claim the combined raft of packages announced in the budget
including national insurance rises, packaging levies and increases to the
national minimum wage could cost the industry more than £7 billion each year.
Also
joining the chorus of signatures were the bosses of Aldi, Amazon UK, Boots,
Lidl, JD Sports, Primark, Morrisons and Greggs.
The
group said they would "welcome" the chance to meet with Ms Reeves and
recommended potential changes including phasing the introduction of the
National Insurance lower earnings threshold, delaying timelines for packing
levy implementations and revisiting business rates proposals announced in the
budget.
It
read: "By adjusting the timings of some of these changes, the Government
would give businesses time to adjust and greatly mitigate their harmful effects
on high streets and consumers.
Sentiments
were echoed by another joint letter organised by UK Hospitality earlier this
month, with some bosses revealing minimum wage jobs could become
"unviable" as a result of the new national insurance contributions
threshold.
More
Rachel Reeves's tax changes torn apart in brutal letter by UK high street giants
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
More on just how unprepared the UK was for a Covid pandemic or any pandemic.
No
blanket do-not-resuscitate order during Covid, Robin Swann tells inquiry
18
November 2024
Mr
Swann told the UK Covid-19 Inquiry that he believed it would have been
“unethical and unnecessary” to deploy the orders based on age or disability.
The
inquiry is examining the impact the pandemic had on healthcare systems –
including the use of Do Not Attempt Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (DNACPR)
orders.
During
his evidence, Mr Swann told counsel to the inquiry Nick Scott that it was
“ill-founded that there was a blanket response”.
Asked
how he knew this, Mr Swann said it was based on feedback from officials.
He
added: “They were being applied appropriately and there wasn’t a blanket
response.”
However,
Mr Swann accepted he had been aware of concerns from families about an increase
in the number of DNACPR orders applied to patients being admitted to hospital.
During
his earlier evidence, Mr Swann was questioned about his decision to site
Northern Ireland’s Covid Nightingale hospital in the tower block at Belfast
City Hospital (BCH).
Mr
Swann, who was Northern Ireland’s health minister during the pandemic, told the
inquiry the hospital was not the preferred site for the Nightingale unit, but
logistics prevented the facility being placed at a non-hospital site.
Mr
Scott asked the former minister about the creation of the Nightingale facility
to deal specifically with critically ill Covid patients in April 2020.
Mr
Scott showed a Department of Health briefing paper which said a number of
non-hospital sites had been explored, including the Eikon Exhibition Centre
near Lisburn, the Titanic Exhibition Centre and Belfast Harbour Studios.
The
document said the Eikon centre was considered the most suitable option, but it
was not progressed due to the amount of work which would have been required to
transform it into a medical facility.
The
barrister asked: “That is the reason why the Nightingale ended up in the
Belfast City Hospital tower, fundamentally because the preferred option could
not be made ready in time?”
Mr
Swann replied: “That is correct.”
Mr
Scott said: “Is that a reflection of the fact that there had been a lack of
planning for a Nightingale at an earlier stage?”
Mr
Swann said: “The work that would have had to be done to make oxygen available,
to make all the proper medical necessities available for critical care beds,
the Eikon centre would have taken an inordinate amount of work to bring it up
to status because it is a large exhibition centre, a warehouse, rather than the
facilities which would become available by the adaptations of the tower block
in the City Hospital.”
Mr
Scott asked if the Eikon centre could have been used if planning had begun
earlier.
Mr
Swann said: “In a roundabout way I could agree, but there’s a difference
between planning to make those changes and actually putting physical site works
in place that would have allowed us to put ICU beds into that facility.”
More
No blanket do-not-resuscitate order during Covid, Robin Swann tells inquiry
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Toyota
Manufacturing unveils solar power farm
Taylor
Mitchell Mon, November 18, 2024 at 11:40
PM GMT
HUNTSVILLE,
Ala (WHNT) — Toyota Alabama unveiled a new addition to its Alabama plant on Monday,
a 168-acre solar power farm.
The
company said the 30-megawatt solar energy system was the result of a
partnership between Toyota Alabama, Toyota Tsusho America, Inc (TAI) and
Huntsville Utilities. Toyota said the project cost $49 million and will provide
70 percent of Toyota Alabama’s energy usage.
The
project is part of the automaker’s goal of achieving carbon Neutrality at all
of its North American facilities by 2035.
“Toyota
is committed to clean and sustainable power. We know that the collective future
for our community and our team members depends on clean mobility, clean air,
clean water, and biodiversity,” said Jason Puckett, president of Toyota Motor
Manufacturing, Alabama. “We are thankful for our partners on this project who
have created a model of environmental stewardship in North Alabama.”
The
solar array will generate nearly 62,000 megawatt hours of energy each year,
which Toyota said will reduce an estimated 22,000 metric tons of CO emissions
each year.
The
array is located in the North Huntsville Industrial Park and surrounds Toyota
Alabama with 73,000 individual solar panels. TAI said it owns the array and is
responsible for its long-term upkeep.
Both
Huntsville Utilities President and CEO Wes Kelley and Mayor Tommy Battle said
the new array is an important step in the energy growth of the city and its
move towards carbon neutrality.
“Clean
solar energy is vital for powering the City of Huntsville as we continue to see
a steady rise in energy demand,” Battle said. “Our partnership with Toyota has
been instrumental in advancing this initiative, and we are excited about
upcoming solar projects that will further enhance our commitment to
sustainability and a cleaner future for our community.”
The
joint power purchase agreement that the facility was built under will also
allow Huntsville Utilities to purchase clean energy, in what Toyota says is the
largest agreement of its kind.
Toyota
Manufacturing unveils solar power farm
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
For
more than two thousand years gold's natural qualities made it man's universal
medium of exchange. In contrast to political money, gold is honest money that
survived the ages and will live on long after the political fiats of today have
gone the way of all paper.
Hans F.
Sennholz.
