US-China Trade Talks Day 2. About That US-EU “Deal”. Gold Dips.

Baltic Dry Index. 2226 -31            Brent Crude 69.96

Spot Gold 3314                  US 2 Year Yield 3.91 unch.

US Federal Debt. 37.162 trillion

US GDP 30.165 trillion.

Neither side published the text of their agreement on Sunday. Although both presidents said that the EU’s baseline tariff would be 15%, they appeared to have different interpretations of some of the details.

Trump and EU Reach Tariff Deal, Avoiding Trade War - WSJ

In the stock casinos, that US-EU tariff “deal” underwhelmed.

On to day two of those USA v China trade talks in Stockholm Sweden.

Tomorrow, Fed Chairman Powell gets to set out the US central bank’s take on all the Trump tariff deals so far.

Tomorrow or just possibly Thursday, the US Federal debt will exceed the US GDP by 7 trillion, that's 7 followed by 12 zeros; and the US economy is not in recession nor the country at war. A good time to take advantage of gold's recent price dip.

On Thursday, the PCE, the Fed’s preferred US inflation measure.

On Friday, the latest US jobs data.

All in all, something of a 50:50 week for the major stock casinos.

Asia-Pacific markets fall as traders await outcome of U.S.-China trade talks

Updated Tue, Jul 29 2025 11:20 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets fell Tuesday as investors awaited the outcome of the ongoing U.S.-China trade talks.
Investors also look ahead to the result of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting due Wednesday stateside, where it will make a decision on whether to cut interest rates.

Asia markets start Tuesday trading in the red

Asia markets started the trading day lower.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 fell 0.61%, while the Topix lost 0.76%.

South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.09%, and the small-cap Kosdaq slipped 0.88%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.42%.

—Lee Ying Shan

Asia markets live: Federal Reserve, Australia CPI

Stock futures are little changed after S&P 500 ekes out another closing record: Live updates

Updated Tue, Jul 29 2025 7:34 PM EDT

Stock futures were relatively unchanged on Monday on the heels of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite eking out yet another record despite a market rally failing to materialize.

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures gained roughly 0.1%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added just 6 points.

The moves come after the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite hit new all-time and closing highs during Monday’s trading session, just barely seeing gains. It was the 15th record close for the broad market index in 2025. The S&P 500 ultimately finished the day just above the flatline, while the 30-stock Dow ticked down by 0.1%. The Nasdaq ended 0.3% higher, by contrast.

The broad market index’s initial moderate gains earlier in the day followed President Donald Trump’s announcement Sunday that the U.S. has struck a trade deal with the European Union, an agreement that will impose 15% tariffs on most goods imported from Europe, including automobiles. The president also said Monday that the baseline global tariff rate will be “in the range of 15 to 20%.”

While investors effectively looked past the U.S.-EU trade deal, they will be watching for any other potential deals between the U.S. and other countries, such as China, to be announced by Friday’s tariff deadline. Top U.S. and Chinese officials met in Stockholm Monday for another round of trade talks.

Tariffs and inflation will remain a focal point throughout the week in other areas as well. The Federal Reserve is set to offer its decision on interest rates Wednesday following its two-day policy meeting. Central bank policymakers are widely expected to keep rates steady at a range of 4.25% to 4.5%.

This week also marks the busiest week of earnings season, with more than 150 S&P 500 companies due to report. That includes several “Magnificent Seven” companies, namely Meta Platforms and Microsoft slated for Wednesday as well as Amazon and Apple for Thursday. Additionally, UPS, Procter & Gamble, Merck and Boeing are among several names reporting before the bell Tuesday.

“If we get no surprises in earnings and some dovish comments by the Fed, it’s likely we’ll see yet more new highs by the end of the week,” Louis Navellier, founder and chief investment officer at Navellier & Associates, said in a recent note.

As it stands, 170 S&P 500 companies have reported their quarterly results, and more than 83% have beaten expectations, according to FactSet data.

It’s a big week for data, with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) due Tuesday, the ADP private payrolls report Wednesday and weekly jobless claims Thursday.

July’s nonfarm payrolls due Friday will be a key event for traders. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect the report to show 100,000 jobs added in July, less than the 147,000 added in June. The unemployment rate is anticipated to rise slightly to 4.2% from 4.1%.

Stock market today: Live updates

CNBC Daily Open: Markets are already looking past U.S.-EU trade deal and need another catalyst

Published Mon, Jul 28 2025 9:03 PM EDT

Stock markets in the U.S. and Europe didn’t seem that delighted with the U.S.-European Union trade deal reached over the weekend.

The S&P 500 ticked up, but by the barest margin, while the Stoxx 600 Europe fell. Both indexes were trading higher during their respective sessions but had given up those gains as the day ended.

For those on the continent, perhaps it was a dawning realization that the agreement wasn’t too much in their favor. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and France’s minister for Europe, Benjamin Haddad, expressed a desire for more open trade.

With U.S. President Donald Trump announcing Monday that he would probably impose a blanket tariff of between 15% and 20% on countries without trade agreements, it’s starting to seem like most duties will settle around that level eventually, easing some uncertainty.

What’s more, economists appear to be revising downward their expectations of the impact tariffs will have on the U.S. economy — so any deals in the future might not trigger rallies, or strong ones at least, on Wall Street.

Tariff considerations, then, are on the backburner for now. Investors can turn their attention to Magnificent Seven earnings: Meta Platforms and Microsoft will be releasing results on Wednesday. If all goes well, they might give markets the cheer that was missing on Monday.

What you need to know today

Global baseline tariff of between 15% and 20%. For countries that have not negotiated separate trade agreements with the U.S., Trump said he would likely impose that blanket tariff rate on their exports. But Wall Street doesn’t seem as frightened of tariffs anymore.

Less than two weeks for Russia to reach a peace deal with Ukraine. That’s the new deadline Trump issued to Moscow — if Russia fails to meet it, the U.S. president will implement massive ’secondary tariffs” on the country’s trade partners, Trump said.

Europe isn’t that pleased with its U.S. trade deal. The agreement, which imposes a 15% tariff on most European Union goods exported to the U.S., has been criticized by European leaders and analysts as “asymmetric” and “unbalanced.”

Markets have a muted response to EU deal. On Monday, the S&P 500 closed near the flatline, down from a 0.2% increase during its session high. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index lost 0.22%, erasing earlier gains.

More

CNBC Daily Open: Markets are already looking past U.S.-EU trade deal

XAU/USD outlook: Gold falls to three-week low as dollar benefits from US-EU trade deal

 07/28/2025 15:52:35 GMT

Gold continues to trend lower and extends drop from last week’s top ($3438) into fourth straight day on Monday.

The metal’s price fell to the lowest in three weeks after US-EU trade agreement further lifted dollar, pushing gold through key supports at $3340 (daily cloud top) and $3330 (triangle support line), with fresh acceleration hitting levels just ticks ahead of psychological $3300 support.

Bears faced headwinds here (oversold conditions) but expected to remain in play if gold closes within the cloud and below triangle’s lower boundary today.

Fresh weakness pushed the price into the lower side of broader consolidation under new record high ($3500/$3120 range), but verification of new negative signal would require violation of $3300 (near the mid-point of the range) and cloud base ($3285) that would also avoid scenario of a false break out of triangle (last week’s short-lived violation of an upper triangle boundary).

The structure on daily chart weakened (MA’s turned to bearish setup, but 14-d momentum hovers at the centreline).

Focus shifts on Fed’s policy decision (due later this week) that would provide fresh direction signals.

XAU/USD outlook: Gold falls to three-week low as dollar benefits from US-EU trade deal

In other news, about that USA-EU trade “deal”. The ever excellent website MishTalk sums up the reality.

Can Ursula Sign a Deal for the EU?

The answer is no.

She is the chief negotiator. Then what?

• Negotiation: The European Commission, through the Trade Commissioner, then leads the negotiations with the partner country.
• Council Approval for Signing: After the negotiations are completed and an agreement is reached, the Commission submits the proposal to the Council of the EU, which must adopt a decision authorizing the signing of the agreement.
• European Parliament Consent: The signed agreement is then sent to the European Parliament for its consent. The Parliament has the power to approve or reject the agreement, but it cannot amend it.
• Final Conclusion: Only after the European Parliament has given its consent can the Council adopt the final decision to formally conclude the agreement.
• Ratification (for “Mixed” Agreements): In some cases, where the trade agreement covers areas of shared competence between the EU and its member states, the agreement also needs to be ratified by the national parliaments of each EU member state before it can be fully implemented. 

There Is No Deal

Ultimately European Parliament will have the final say. And in some issues national governments have a say as well.

More

Trump Announces a 15 Percent Tariff Deal With the EU But There Is No Deal – MishTalk

EU Defends Trade Deal Amid Mounting Criticism

July 28, 2025 at 10:49 PM GMT+1

European leaders on Monday sought to defend their trade deal with President Donald Trump, an accord that will see the European Union accepting a 15% tariff on most of its exports to the US while reducing levies on some American products to zero.

Industry officials in Germany have warned that the deal leaves the auto industry exposed and will make companies in Europe less competitive. “The agreement is an inadequate compromise and sends a disastrous signal to the closely intertwined economies on both sides of the Atlantic,” said Wolfgang Niedermark, a member of the executive board of Germany’s BDI industry federation.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen hailed the agreement, arguing it will offer stability and predictability to businesses and consumers. Von der Leyen urged critics to “not forget where we came from,” referencing tariff rates Trump threatened that were as high as 50%. 

Wall Street appeared to be aware of the dodged bullet argument, kicking off a pivotal week with record highs and a dollar that climbed the most since May. The euro meanwhile slid the most in more than two months. The S&P 500 briefly topped 6,400 and Treasuries barely budged amid mixed results from US debt sales. Here’s your markets wrap. —Natasha Solo-Lyons

EU Defends Trade Deal Amid Mounting Business Criticism: Evening Briefing - Bloomberg

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Federal Reserve likely to hold interest rates steady despite pressure from Trump. Here's what that means for your money

 Published July 25, 2025 • Updated on July 25, 2025 at 6:39 am

·         Despite escalating political pressure from President Donald Trump, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold its benchmark short-term borrowing rate steady at its meeting next week.

·         All sorts of consumer borrowing costs are impacted by the what the central bank decides.

·         From mortgage rates and auto loans to credit cards and savings accounts, here's a look at how the Fed affects your finances.

Ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting, relations between President Donald Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell have hit a low.

"Families are being hurt because Interest Rates are too high," Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Wednesday.

Trump has said he wants the Fed to sharply lower interest rates by as much as 3 percentage points to spur economic growth. (Although the central bank typically adjusts its benchmark in 25-basis-point increments, rates were slashed to near zero as recently as the Covid pandemic. "The Fed only resorts to such extreme measures in response to severe economic distress," said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.)

The president has argued that maintaining a federal funds rate that is too high makes it harder for businesses and consumers to borrow and puts the U.S. at an economic disadvantage to countries with lower rates.

The Fed's benchmark sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending, but also has a trickle-down effect on almost all of the borrowing and savings rates Americans see every day.

Powell said earlier this month that the Fed likely would have cut rates by now, but that it has held off due to the uncertainty and inflation risks posed by Trump's tariff agenda. Many economists say that the full impact from tariffs on pricing has only just started to be felt, and inflation could pick up in the second half of the year.

Since December, the federal funds rate has remained steady in a target range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Futures market pricing is implying almost no chance of an interest rate cut when the Fed meets next week, according to the CME Group's FedWatch gauge. Market pricing indicates the Fed is much more likely to consider a rate cut in September.

Once the fed funds rate comes down, consumers could see their borrowing costs start to fall as well.

However, "there is no guarantee this would translate into lower rates," said Brett House, an economics professor at Columbia Business School — "largely because many types of borrowing, mortgage rates specifically, are not benchmarked off the Fed."

From mortgage rates and auto loans to credit cards and savings accounts, here's a look at how the Fed affects your finances.

More

Federal Reserve likely to hold interest rates steady despite pressure from Trump. Here’s what that means for your money – NBC 6 South Florida

The Bull Market for Economists Is Over. It’s an Ominous Sign for the Economy.

Earning a Ph.D. in economics has long been a reliable path to affluence and prestige. Not anymore.

July 28, 2025

The moment it dawned on Thomas Fullagar that his job search was not going well came in April, about six months into the process, when he applied for a position in Manhattan, Kan.

The job, at a technology company called CivicPlus, involved relatively straightforward data analysis that he wouldn’t strain to do. In fact, he had done much more complicated work while completing his Ph.D. in economics at the University of California, Santa Barbara. Further improving his odds, he had grown up in Manhattan, the home of Kansas State University, and his mother knew someone at the company, who helped fast-track his application.

Yet despite his connections and credentials, he did not get the job. He didn’t even get a second interview. “It was in Manhattan, Kansas — who the heck is applying for this?” Dr. Fullagar, 33, wondered. “That one was really baffling.”

For decades, earning a Ph.D. in economics has been a nearly foolproof path to a lucrative career. Even as bearers of advanced degrees in history, English or anthropology struggled to find gainful employment, the popularity of economics as an undergraduate major created plenty of tenure-track teaching positions, while government agencies snatched up Ph.D. economists in bulk. Those looking for even larger paychecks could turn to tech companies, Wall Street and consulting firms, which bid up the price of economists as if they were a bespoke cryptocurrency.

Last year, the average base salary for newly hired economics professors at major research universities was more than $150,000, according to the American Economic Association, and their compensation swelled to about $200,000 once bonuses and summer teaching were included. As recently as the 2023-24 academic year, the employment rate for Ph.D. economists within a few months of graduation was 100 percent, said John Cawley, the chair of the association’s Committee on the Job Market, citing the group’s surveys. Job satisfaction topped 85 percent.

Those glory days seem to be ending. Universities and nonprofits have scaled back hiring amid declining state budgets and federal funding cuts. At the same time, the Trump administration has laid off government economists and frozen hiring for new ones.

More

Economists Are Struggling to Find Jobs. It’s an Ominous Sign for The Economy. - The New York Times

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

The growing threat of battery fires from e-scooters and e-bikes

27 July 2025

Firefighters face growing challenges presented by electric vehicles and need new training and equipment, the leader of the Fire Brigades Union (FBU) has said.

Steve Wright, who took over as general secretary of the FBU earlier this year, said illegally modified e-bikes and scooters were a particular concern.

The Office for Product Safety recently reported that there were at least 211 e-scooter and e-bike fires last year, including five that caused fatalities. The figure in 2020 was 26.

Natasha Johnson-Mall, 27, and her partner, Karlo Bogdan, 24, died in an e-bike fire last November. Their two dogs also perished in the blaze at their Coventry home, caused when a battery Karlo had installed on the e-bike burst into flames.

The West Midlands Fire Service reported that the fire began when the battery caught fire and “rapidly escalated into an intense blaze”.

“The battery that we believe Karlo had purchased was subject to a product recall before he purchased it due to… other fires that have happened nationally,” said fire investigation officer Annette Carrington. “It’s obvious that this risk was unknown to Karlo.”

The unique dangers of lithium-ion battery fires

Most of the e-bike and e-scooter fires reported last year were in London, and the true national total is certain to be higher since it is based on voluntary reporting by regional brigades.

“It seems like a lot of people are buying scooters cheaper, and actually they are not regulated, and then they are storing them in high-rise blocks of flats,” FBU leader Wright told The i Paper.

The fire brigade union chief said traditional methods were ineffective against lithium-ion battery fires and that further research – and new equipment and training – was needed.

“I think our equipment needs to keep pace with the advances in technology. So also the training of firefighters that’s been cut over the years,” he said.

“Cars are more advanced, and lithium-ion battery risks are going up. There is no way of extinguishing a lithium-ion battery in a motor vehicle. Water will not put that out.”

Why are lithium-ion battery fires so dangerous?

Lithium-ion battery fires are challenging to extinguish due to their unique characteristics.

Internal chemical reactions within them can sustain combustion even without external oxygen, as the battery itself generates oxygen during thermal runaway.

This process, where heat triggers further heat-generating reactions, can lead to rapid temperature increases, potentially causing explosions or the release of flammable gases, such as hydrogen, methane, and ethylene.

These gases can ignite, intensifying the fire, while toxic emissions like carbon monoxide, hydrogen fluoride, and hydrogen chloride pose health risks.

These elements make lithium-ion battery fires more hazardous and difficult to manage compared to fires fuelled by conventional materials.

More

The growing threat of battery fires from e-scooters and e-bikes

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Trump indicated in comments to the press that his global steel-and-aluminum tariffs, which are currently at 50%, would remain unchanged. Von der Leyen said the two had agreed to a quota system that would keep tariffs lower for some EU metals exports to the U.S.

Trump and EU Reach Tariff Deal, Avoiding Trade War - WSJ 

Tariff Friday Or TACO Friday? An USA-EU Tariff Deal. US-China Trade Talks.

Baltic Dry Index. 2257 -01            Brent Crude 68.79

Spot Gold 3340                  US 2 Year Yield 3.91 unch.

US Federal Debt. 37.158 trillion

US GDP 30.163 trillion.

Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance.

George Bernard Shaw

To no one’s great surprise,  the USA and EU reached a trade deal yesterday. Well, announced a tariff deal, sort of. Each side had a different spin.

On Friday, August 1^st, one sided US tariffs go into effect for most of the rest of the world, unless of course, President TACO delays them yet again.

Far from getting the 90 deals in 90 days, President Trump once boasted of, as far a I can see, President Trump has struck sort of deals with Britain, China, Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines and the EU.

American consumers now face paying higher prices for autos, coffee, orange juice, French and Italian cheese, olive oil, German cars and wines, imported steel and aluminium, toys, drugs and just about everything else imported into the USA.

A Great Global Economic Disruption now lies ahead.

Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed as investors await details of U.S-China talks

Updated Mon, Jul 28 2025 12:28 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Monday, with investors awaiting more details of the trade talks between the U.S. and China, which were set to kick off in Stockholm later in the day.

The talks will be led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. Bessent said on Fox Business that he expects a trade-truce extension during the negotiations, which he added will include a broader range of topics, such as Beijing’s oil purchases from Russia and Iran.

The U.S.-China talks followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement that the U.S. had reached an agreement with the European Union  on Sunday stateside.

The president had previously threatened 30% tariffs on most imported goods from the U.S.’s largest trading partner.

Here are today’s highlights:

• Shares of Japanese semiconductor equipment maker Advantest plunged over 10% in early trade
• Samsung Electronics’ shares rose after it announced its $16.5 billion contract to supply semiconductors to Tesla
• Hong Kong’s CK Hutchison wants a Chinese firm as a ‘major strategic investor’ for a BlackRock-led consortium bidding for its ports business
• Vietnamese stocks hit a fresh high, extending gains for the fifth session
• Indonesian stocks hit a nine-month high, extending its rally for fourth session

Indian stocks fall in early trade

Indian stocks fell in early trade Monday.

The 50-stock benchmark Nifty 50 was down 0.21% while the BSE Sensex index lost 0.22% as of 9.30 a.m. Indian Standard time (12 a.m. ET).

More

Asia stock markets today: live updates

US and EU reach tariff agreement to avert trade war

Deal follows Scotland talks between Donald Trump and European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen

27 July 2025

The US and EU have struck a tariff deal that will avert a transatlantic trade war between the two sides but still impose American tariffs of 15 per cent on most imports from the bloc.

As part of the deal the EU has agreed to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on US energy products and weapons, and accepted a broad 15 per cent levy that covers many key European exports, including cars.

The agreement was struck following a meeting on Sunday between US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at his Turnberry golf resort in Scotland.

The deal marks a victory for Trump, who has spent months forcing America’s trading partners into bruising negotiations by threatening steep tariffs, although the terms are in line with what Brussels had told EU member states to prepare for.

“This is probably the biggest deal ever reached in any capacity, trade or beyond trade,” Trump said as he announced the agreement.

 “Today’s deal creates certainty in uncertain times . . . for citizens and businesses on both sides of the Atlantic,” von der Leyen said, adding that the 15 per cent US tariff would apply to European cars, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors — important products for Brussels.

A senior US official later confirmed that European exports of automobiles, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors to the US would all be subject to the 15 per cent tariff.

However, Trump said US levies on steel and aluminium, which he has set at 50 per cent on many countries across the world, would not be cut to 15 per cent for EU products — dashing the hopes of industry in the bloc for an early and low tariff quota.

He said the US would put tariffs of 15 per cent on EU goods, including automobiles, in exchange for the bloc “opening up their countries at zero tariff” to American exports.

He had threatened to impose 30 per cent tariffs on the EU if no deal had been struck by August 1.

Trump said the EU would spend an additional $750bn on US energy products, invest $600bn in America and buy “a vast amount” of his country’s military equipment worth “hundreds of billions of dollars” as part of the deal.

Von der Leyen confirmed the EU would seek to buy $250bn of US energy products each year for the next three years.

“With this deal we are securing access to our largest export market,” she said, while acknowledging that the 15 per cent US tariff would be “a challenge for some” European industries.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz saluted the agreement as “avoiding an unnecessary escalation in transatlantic trade relations”.

He said a trade war “would have hit Germany’s export-oriented economy hard”, highlighting how the German automotive industry would now see US tariffs cut from 27.5 per cent to 15 per cent.

However, Wolfgang Niedermark, board member of the Federation of German Industries trade body, called the agreement “an inadequate compromise”, with the EU “accepting painful tariffs”.

A 15 per cent US tariff rate “will have a huge negative impact on Germany’s export-oriented industry”, he said.

Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who had urged restraint to avert an escalatory trade war, welcomed the deal.

More

US and EU reach tariff agreement to avert trade war

U.S. and China to resume tariff talks on Monday in effort to extend truce

Published Sun, Jul 27 2025 4:23 PM EDT

Senior U.S. and Chinese negotiators meet in Stockholm on Monday to tackle longstanding economic disputes at the center of the countries’ trade war, aiming to extend a truce keeping sharply higher tariffs at bay.

China is facing an Aug. 12 deadline to reach a durable tariff agreement with President Donald Trump’s administration, after Beijing and Washington reached a preliminary deal in June to end weeks of escalating tit-for-tat tariffs.

Without an agreement, global supply chains could face renewed turmoil from duties exceeding 100%.

The Stockholm talks, led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, take place a day after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met Trump at his golf course in Scotland to clinch a deal that would see a 15% baseline tariff on most EU goods.

Trade analysts on both sides of the Pacific say the discussions in the Swedish capital are unlikely to produce any breakthroughs but could prevent further escalation and help create conditions for Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to meet later this year.

Previous U.S.-China trade talks in Geneva and London in May and June focused on bringing U.S. and Chinese retaliatory tariffs down from triple-digit levels and restoring the flow of rare earth minerals halted by China and Nvidia H20 AI chips and other goods halted by the United States.

So far, the talks have not delved into broader economic issues. They include U.S. complaints that China’s state-led, export-driven model is flooding world markets with cheap goods, and Beijing’s complaints that U.S. national security export controls on tech goods seek to stunt Chinese growth.

“Stockholm will be the first meaningful round of U.S.-China trade talks,” said Bo Zhengyuan, Shanghai-based partner at China consultancy firm Plenum.

More

U.S. China trade tariff talks

What the prediction markets are saying about the big Wall Street events ahead

Published Fri, Jul 25 20253:08 PM EDT

The coming week poses a critical test for the stock market’s record-setting run with a number of make-or-break events — the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, July jobs report and President Donald Trump’s tariffs deadline.

Popular wagers on prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket offer an alternative view into how the mainstream thinks things will unfold next week. These markets became established in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election and have been widely used by investors and even Wall Street strategists to gauge the consensus crowd view of a certain event.

The S&P 500 has rebounded more than 30% off its low on April 7, reaching consecutive record highs this week after the benchmark closed above 6,300 for the first time. Investors have cheered resilient economic growth and corporate profits even in the face of higher tariffs. Still, next week marks a wild card that could easily derail the bull run.

Fed meeting

Consistent with the pricing in the futures markets, prediction platform Kalshi is assigning virtually no chance for a rate cut when the Fed meets next week.

But the prediction markets do anticipate some drama during the Fed meeting with Powell perhaps losing his grip on the consensus of his peers.

Kalshi is pricing in a 82% chance of a dissenting vote against a no-cut decision. Notably, Fed Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller have said they would favor a rate cut in July so long as inflation pressures stay muted. So they could be the two that emerge.

Fed Chairman Powell and his fellow policymakers have been reluctant to lower rates as they wait to see the impact that Trump’s tariffs have on inflation. Powell has also argued that the economy is strong enough that it can withstand higher rates as officials watch how the data evolves.

----Jobs report

July jobs report next Friday will offer a fresh look at the health of the labor market that has been resilient in the face of Trump’s tariffs.

Kalshi traders expect a solid jobs report in the Goldilocks range. Kalshi is pricing in a 79% chance that the payroll number will be higher than 100,000, but just an 18% chance that it will be higher than 150,000. The jobless rate has been assigned a 55% likelihood to be above 4.1%.

For context, economists polled by FactSet expect that the U.S. economy will have added 115,000 jobs in July, down from 147,000 in June. The unemployment rate is expected to have edged up to 4.2% from 4.1% previously. 

Aug. 1 tariff deadline 

The world is bracing for more erratic trade headlines as the Aug. 1 deadline approaches. Trump said Friday there is a 50-50 chance that the U.S. would reach a trade agreement with the European Union.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen posted on X later Friday that she and Trump have agreed to meet in Scotland on Sunday to discuss trade. The EU is preparing countermeasures in case of a no-deal scenario. The prediction market is pricing in a 53% likelihood of a deal with the EU.

As for China, which faces an Aug. 12 deadline to reach a deal, Polymarket assigns an 83% chance that the two countries will come to an agreement.

What the prediction markets are saying about the big Wall Street events ahead

Trump’s trade deals and tariffs are on the chopping block in court. What happens next

Published Sat, Jul 26 2025 8:00 AM EDT Updated Sat, Jul 26 2025 3:51 PM EDT

President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff powers and recent trade deals could soon run into a legal buzzsaw.

A federal appeals court is set to hear oral arguments next week in a high-profile lawsuit challenging Trump’s stated authority to effectively slap tariffs at any level on any country at any time, so long as he deems them necessary to address a national emergency.

The Trump administration says that that expansive tariff power derives from the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA.

The bulk of Trump’s biggest tariffs — including his fentanyl-related duties on Canada, Mexico and China, and the worldwide “reciprocal” tariffs he first unveiled in early April — rest on his invocation of that law.

The U.S. Court of International Trade struck those tariffs down in late May, ruling that Trump exceeded his authority under IEEPA.

But the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit quickly paused that decision, keeping the tariffs in effect while Trump’s legal challenge plays out.

The case, known as V.O.S. Selections v. Trump, is the furthest along of more than half a dozen federal lawsuits challenging Trump’s use of the emergency-powers law.

It’s set for oral argument before the Federal Circuit on Thursday morning.

“I think the tariffs are at risk,” said Ted Murphy, partner and head of global trade practice at law firm Sidley Austin, in an interview with CNBC.

The law has “never been used for this purpose,” and it’s “being used quite broadly,” Murphy said. “So I think there are legitimate questions.”

V.O.S.

IEEPA gives Trump some powers to deal with national emergencies stemming from “any unusual and extraordinary threat” that comes in whole or in large part from outside the U.S.

But attorneys representing the handful of small businesses that sued Trump argue that the law does not let him unilaterally impose tariffs.

“IEEPA nowhere mentions tariffs, duties, imposts, or taxes, and no other President in the statute’s nearly 50-year history has claimed that it authorizes tariffs,” they wrote in a court brief this month.

Attorneys for Trump and his administration, however, argue that Congress has long empowered presidents to impose tariffs to address key national concerns.

They argue that the statute’s language authorizing Trump to “regulate … importation” means he can use it to impose tariffs.

Supreme Court incoming

No matter how the Federal Circuit ultimately rules in V.O.S., the case appears destined for the Supreme Court, which bears a 6-3 conservative majority and includes three justices appointed by Trump.

But some experts still expect that Trump’s IEEPA tariffs will be scrapped.

“Trump will probably continue to lose in the lower courts, and we believe the Supreme Court is highly unlikely to rule in his favor,” U.S. policy analysts from Piper Sandler wrote in a research note Friday morning.

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Trump's trade deals, tariffs face key test in court next week

In other news, despite all the froth in the stock casinos, is money getting tight all around? What happens, if it is, with tariffs still largely to hit?

Auction sales fall 6% in the first half, raising fears of an art market shift

Published Fri, Jul 25 2025 10:53 AM EDT

Auction sales have been declining for the third year in a row, as dealers, auctioneers and collectors ponder a deeper crisis in the art market.

Auction sales for the first half of the year at Sotheby’s, Christie’s and Phillips fell to $3.98 billion, a drop of 6% compared with the same period in 2024, according to ArtTactic. The auction total is the lowest in at least a decade (setting aside the 2020 pandemic) and is now down 44% — or more than $3 billion — from 2022. The declines follow a 19% drop in 2023 and 26% decline in 2024.

Postwar and contemporary art, which has been the main engine of growth for art auctions in recent decades, fell by an even greater 19% in the first half, according to ArtTactic.

“Lingering concerns over global economic growth, ongoing inflation, and rising geopolitical tensions are weighing on confidence and creating a more cautious investment climate,” ArtTactic said. “These factors are likely to challenge the market’s momentum in the second half of the year, as the industry adapts to a still-uncertain global landscape.”

Those lingering concerns, however, aren’t showing up in other areas of the wealth economy. The prosperity of the wealthy is at record levels, with the top 10% of Americans adding $37 trillion to their wealth since Covid, marking a 45% increase. Stock markets were up more than 20% in both 2023 and 2024 and are up again so far in 2025. Housing values and business valuations have also soared, adding to personal wealth.

Yale professor William Goetzmann has studied the relationship between art prices and financial wealth going back over 300 years and found they are “highly correlated.”

“Demand for art increases with the wealth of art collectors,” he wrote in his famous paper “Accounting for Taste, Art and the Financial Markets over Three Centuries.”

With personal wealth at all-time highs, however, Goetzmann said the 300-year correlation is broken. He said there are one of two explanations for the divergence: Either the dip in the art market is a temporary aberration and will bounce back this year or next, or the art market is going through a more structural change.

“The question is, is there some kind of fundamental deviation from the social norm of the very wealthy being highly involved in collecting art at the highest prices and levels,” he said. “We don’t know yet.”

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Auction sales fall 6% in the first half, raising fears for art market

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Trump’s Tariff Blitz Sparks Global Trade Tensions and Economic Uncertainty

27 July 2025

U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, announced in a series of letters to global trading partners, are sending shockwaves through the world economy.

With proposed tariffs of 30% on imports from the European Union and Mexico, a staggering 50% on Brazil for political reasons, and 25% on Japan, the U.S. is escalating a trade war that threatens to disrupt decades of global trade liberalization. These measures, set to take effect on August 1, 2025, are fueling economic uncertainty and prompting dire forecasts, with the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) projecting global growth to slow to 2.3% in 2025—the weakest in 17 years outside of recession periods. As nations brace for retaliatory measures and markets reel, Trump’s tariff strategy is reshaping global trade dynamics with far-reaching consequences.

A Wave of Tariffs Targets Key Trading Partners

President Trump’s latest tariff announcements, detailed in letters posted to his Truth Social platform, target some of the U.S.’s largest trading partners. The 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico, two of the U.S.’s top trade partners, aim to address what Trump calls “unfair” trade deficits. In 2024, the U.S. trade deficit with the EU was $235.6 billion, while Mexico’s trade surplus with the U.S. has long been a point of contention. Trump’s letter to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum also cited the flow of fentanyl across the border as a justification, though critics argue the tariffs are more about economic leverage than drug enforcement.

Brazil faces an even steeper 50% tariff, a move Trump explicitly linked to the political prosecution of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, a close ally. This politicization of trade policy has raised eyebrows, with analysts warning that it sets a dangerous precedent for using tariffs as a tool for geopolitical score-settling. Japan, a key U.S. ally, was slapped with a 25% tariff, particularly impacting its automotive sector, which accounts for 20% of its exports to the U.S. The Nikkei 225 plummeted 7.8% on April 7, 2025, following an earlier tariff announcement, underscoring the economic toll on export-heavy economies.

These tariffs build on a broader strategy that began in April 2025, when Trump imposed a 10% global tariff and higher rates on 57 countries, raising the average U.S. tariff rate from 2.5% to an estimated 27%—the highest in over a century. Sector-specific levies, including 50% on steel and aluminum and 25% on autos, have further amplified the impact. The White House argues that these measures will boost domestic manufacturing and generate $100 billion in tax revenue, but critics warn of higher consumer prices and global retaliation.

Global Economic Fallout and Recession Fears

The OECD’s forecast of 2.3% global growth in 2025 reflects the mounting economic strain from Trump’s tariffs. The organization slashed its projections from 3.3% in December 2024, citing “higher trade barriers” and “increased geopolitical and policy uncertainty” as key drivers. The U.S. economy is expected to grow at just 2.2% in 2025, down from 2.4%, while Canada’s growth was cut to 0.7% and Mexico’s to a contraction of 1.3%. J.P. Morgan now estimates a 60% chance of a global recession by year-end, up from 40%, as markets grapple with the fallout.

Consumers are already feeling the pinch. The Penn Wharton Budget Model projects that Trump’s tariffs will raise $5.2 trillion in revenue over 10 years but reduce U.S. GDP by 8% and wages by 7%, with the average household facing a $58,000 lifetime loss. Higher prices for imported goods, from cars to canned food, are expected to add $1,300 annually to household costs in 2025 alone. For example, economist Arthur Laffer estimates that the 25% auto tariff could increase new car prices by $4,711, hitting consumers and industries reliant on imported parts.

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Trump’s Tariff Blitz Sparks Global Trade Tensions and Economic Uncertainty

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

Why do COVID-19 cases rise every summer? CDC reports surge in Texas, 9 other states

July 25, 2025

The seasonal surge in COVID-19 cases has arrived, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports an increase in activity in the majority of states.

As the U.S. approaches the midpoint of summer, the CDC is reporting cases of the virus are growing or likely to grow in 26 states, including Texas. A July 18 report used data from emergency department visits in its epidemic trend modeling. This modeling reflects trends in overall cases, not the actual numbers.

COVID summer 2025 surge: Why do cases rise every summer?

The rate of positive COVID-19 tests is increasing nationally, the CDC said, based on data from the last week, with emergency department visits for the virus increasing among children 4 years old and younger.

Although there is an uptick in COVID-19 cases in more than two dozen states, the CDC reports that the overall number of people seeking care for acute respiratory illnesses remains at a very low level. That's accompanied by low levels of seasonal influenza activity and very low levels of RSV activity, the CDC says.

Overall, trends in COVID-19 cases continue downward as compared to the last few years, according to long-term data trends in deaths, emergency room visits and positive cases.

The U.S. has experienced a surge in COVID-19 cases every summer since 2020. The CDC attributes the July and August increases to a variety of virological, behavioral and environmental factors. For one, most get annual vaccinations in the fall, so by late summer, those individuals' immunity "has waned considerably." Infection also becomes more likely as more transmissible variants emerge.

The summer heat drives people indoors to air-conditioned spaces, where restrictions on ventilation and air circulation enable the virus to spread more easily. Travel also peaks in the summer, and this year's season has proven particularly popular with travelers, as demonstrated by record-breaking numbers over the Memorial Day and Independence Day. The CDC warns that in addition to the higher rates of exposure related to travel, those who partake "may be more likely to write off mild symptoms as simply the result of jet lag, not illness."

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Why do COVID-19 cases rise every summer? CDC reports surge in Texas, 9 other states

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

HydroGraph launches Compounding Partner Program to expand graphene-enhanced thermoplastics

Through the establishment of a qualified network of partners, HydroGraph is building commercial availability of unreinforced and reinforced thermoplastic compounds that incorporate its Fractal Graphene material.

Published 07/25/2025

HydroGraph Clean Power Inc. (Vancouver, BC, Canada), producer of high-purity graphene, has announced the launch of the Compounding Partner Program aimed at accelerating the adoption of its high-performance Fractal Graphene in unreinforced and fiber-reinforced thermoplastics.

The initiative establishes a qualified network of plastic compounders with demonstrated expertise in processing graphene-enhanced thermoplastic materials, with early partners already piloting new formulations across automotive and packaging sectors. Participants in the program will undergo a qualification process to ensure adherence to performance, quality and consistency benchmarks defined by HydroGraph’s technical lab.

“Establishing a select network of certified compounders enables HydroGraph to ensure consistent processing of Fractal Graphene at commercial scale,” says Kjirstin Breure, president and CEO of HydroGraph. “This initiative provides end customers with a vetted supply chain for sourcing graphene-enhanced compounds with confidence.”

Qualified partners will receive technical support, knowledge transfer and business referrals for commercial opportunities. The program is designed for compounders with advanced material capabilities, strong quality control systems and a track record in innovative product development.

Fractal Graphene is a turbostratic graphene material manufactured using HydroGraph’s patented detonation synthesis technology. Characterized by its 99.8% carbon purity and consistent morphology, the material’s fractal structure enables performance at addition rates 10 to 100 times lower than conventional graphene nanoplatelets, offering potential reductions in material use, cost and environmental impact. Unlike traditional forms of graphene, which often require high loadings that may affect processability or material properties, Fractal Graphene achieves mechanical and electrical enhancements at ultra-low concentrations. HydroGraph’s production method is designed to operate with low energy and carbon intensity compared to traditional manufacturing approaches.

HydroGraph’s certified compounding partners will support customers across industries seeking lighter, stronger and more sustainable materials, including automotive, construction, packaging, agriculture and textiles.

Plastic compounders interested in joining HydroGraph’s Compounding Partner Program can contact the company at partners@hydrograph.com.

HydroGraph launches Compounding Partner Program to expand graphene-enhanced thermoplastics | CompositesWorld

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

The longer I live, the more convinced am I that this planet is used by other planets as a lunatic asylum.

George Bernard Shaw