Baltic
Dry Index. 997 +03 Brent Crude 74.17
Spot
Gold 2621 U S 2 Year Yield 4.31 +0.01
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the
age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it
was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of
Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had
everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to
Heaven, we were all going direct the other way—in short, the period was so far
like the present period.
Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities.
In
US stocks, a year-end profit taking wobble or the start of something more?
In
the US bond market, the returning Rip Van Winkle bond vigilantes seem to be
betting on something more.
Still,
as usual, Wall Street’s perma-bulls see nothing ahead in 2025 but a soaring
future, now under Trump 2.0.
With
official US debt at 36.275 trillion, (36, 275, 000, 000, 000) on a GDP of just
29.394 trillion, I’m more willing to bet that the returning bond vigilantes are
on to something, like Warren Buffett.
Look
away from that rapidly normalising US treasury yield curve now.
Dow
falls more than 300 points Friday but breaks 3-week losing streak: Live updates
Updated
Fri, Dec 27 2024 4:34 PM EST
Stocks
declined on Friday, led by technology names, but major indexes still posted a
positive holiday week.
The
blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial
Average shed 333.59 points, or 0.77%, to 42,992.21, falling for the
first time in six sessions. The S&P
500 fell 1.11% to 5,970.84. The Nasdaq Composite slid 1.49%
to 19,722.03, as Tesla dropped
about 5% and Nvidia fell
2%.
Still,
the Dow squeezed out a roughly 0.4% gain on the week, breaking a three-week
losing streak. The S&P 500 advanced 0.7% this week after posting its best
Christmas Eve performance since 1974 on Tuesday, according to Bespoke. The
Nasdaq slightly outperformed with a nearly 0.8% gain this week.
A
rise in Treasury yields this week may have pressured equities. The yield on the
benchmark 10-year Treasury rose
more than 4 basis points Friday to 4.627% after the rate hit its highest level
since May in the previous session.
“I
think what you’re seeing today is a lack of faith,” Alan Rechtschaffen, UBS
Global Wealth senior portfolio manager, said on CNBC’s “Money Movers.” “I think
there’s a lot of noise about tariffs, there’s a lot of concern about
productivity.”
Some
investors remain hopeful that stocks will rise into the new year, spurred by
the so-called Santa
Claus rally. This refers to the market’s tendency to rise in the final five
trading days of the year and the first two in January. Since 1950, the
S&P 500 has returned 1.3% on average during this period, outpacing the
market’s average seven-day return of 0.3%, according to LPL Financial.
“The
nation is experiencing a collective sigh of relief after navigating through a
contentious election cycle and unusual market dynamics to end 2024 with strong
year-to-date gains,” said Todd Ahlsten, chief investment officer at Parnassus
Investments. “Looking ahead to 2025, the markets are expected to broaden and
improve.”
In
December, the Nasdaq is on pace for a 2.6% advance, lifted by a jump in Tesla
and Alphabet shares, as well as by a rally in Apple that has brought the iPhone
maker closer to a $4 trillion market cap. The S&P 500 is down 1% on the
month. The Dow is on pace for its worst month since April, with a roughly 4.3%
decline.
Stock
market news for Dec. 27, 2024
10-year
Treasury yield rises, hovering near a seven-month high
Published
Fri, Dec 27 2024 4:10 AM EST Updated Fri, Dec 27 2024 4:07 PM EST
The
10-year Treasury yield rose again on Friday, hovering near a seven-month high.
The
yield on the benchmark 10-year
Treasury was 4 basis points higher at 4.626%. The 10-year rate hit a
high of 4.641% in the previous session, hitting its highest level since May.
The 2-year Treasury was
fractionally lower at 4.318%.
One
basis point is equal to 0.01%. Yields move inversely to prices.
After
the Christmas break, jobless claims data released Thursday for the week
ending Dec. 21 came in 1,000 lower at 219,000, below the 225,000 consensus
forecast from Dow Jones.
However,
continuing claims rose by 46,000 for the week ending Dec. 14 to the highest
level since November 2021.
The
10-year Treasury yield has risen more than 40 basis points in December as
traders anticipate
a more hawkish Federal Reserve in 2025. The central bank next meets at the
end of January, when a rate hold is expected.
10-year
Treasury yield rises slightly, hovering near seven-month high
The
economic lookout for 2025 is strong, but there’s still a lot that could go
wrong
Published
Fri, Dec 27 2024 12:42 PM EST Updated Fri, Dec 27 2024 1:43 PM EST
With
a fair share of familiar obstacles and challenges ahead, 2025 will begin with a
largely optimistic view for the U.S. economy.
Elevated
interest rates, potential weakening in the labor market and a likely volatile
political climate on Capitol Hill are just some of the hurdles the nearly $30
trillion economy will face.
But
with consumers holding strong in the face of persistent inflation, corporate
profits again expected to surge and the prospect for a more business-friendly
environment in Washington, the mood on Wall Street is largely buoyant heading
into the new year.
“There’s
a strong probability that this economy accelerates in 2025 and continues to
outperform,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. “This is the
economy we want. It’s the economy we need.”
In
the scenario Brusuelas considers most likely, real gross domestic product will
accelerate at a 2.5% rate in the year ahead, just a bit slower than the
approximately 2.7% pace that seems likely for 2024.
That’s
a scenario to which he assigns about a 50% probability. In fact, the second
most likely case he sees is growth that runs above 3%. A recession, he
estimates, carries only about a 15% likelihood. Those numbers are ahead of the
Federal Reserve’s projection for 2.1% growth and the 2.2% estimate from
the Survey of Professional Forecasters.
Still,
it is consistent with a generally positive outlook for both the economy and the
stock market.
The
main drivers will be “strong household consumption, absolutely rock solid and
fixed business investment,” Brusuelas said. “Moreover, I’m very optimistic
around the productivity-enhancing investment in equipment, software and
intellectual property that firms are making to prepare for the [artificial
intelligence] revolution.”
---- Much of the economic story lately has been
related to President-elect
Donald Trump’s agenda of lower taxes, less regulation and tax cuts —
along with what is expected to be a strong round of government spending on
things like energy exploration and AI.
However,
those initiatives are more likely to be a 2026 story, with a growing likelihood
that Trump will face stiff resistance in Congress on spending in particular as
he tries to push his program through. Rather, the near-term picture could be
fueled more by the continued push from tech innovation and business investment,
along with a resilient consumer.
More
The
economic lookout for 2025 is strong, but plenty could go wrong
In
other news.
South
Korea impeaches acting President Han Duck-soo, deepening political turmoil
Published
Fri, Dec 27 2024 2:56 AM EST
South
Korea’s lawmakers on Friday voted to impeach acting President Han Duck-soo, in
the second head-of-state ousting this month after a short-lived martial decree
on Dec. 3, according
to South Korean news agency Yonhap.
Finance
Minister Choi Sang-mok is next in line to take on the mantle of the acting
presidency, according to South Korean law.
Han’s
predecessor, President Yoon Suk Yeol, was impeached a mere two weeks
prior,
after imposing martial law for six hours at the start of the month for the
first time since the military coup of 1979, citing the need to “protect the
constitutional order based on freedom and eradicate shameful pro-North Korea
anti-state groups, that are stealing freedom and happiness of our
people,” according
to NBC News.
Opposition
lawmakers brought the motion against Han on Thursday over the acting
president’s reluctance to immediately appoint three justices in the
Constitutional Court, which is preparing to kick off deliberations on upholding
Yoon’s impeachment or reinstating him. Han’s ruling Power People Party has
argued that filling the Constitutional Court vacancies exceeds Han’s mandate as
acting president. The Constitutional Court held a first hearing on Yoon’s case
on Friday and has 180 days to reach its conclusion.
A
simple 151 majority, rather than two-thirds of parliamentary support, was
required to pass the Friday vote. The assembly approved Han’s
impeachment motion with 192-0 in favor, while governing party lawmakers
boycotted the poll, according
to a Google-translated Yonhap update. The agency reports that acting Han has
said he will respect the Friday decision.
Han’s
own impeachment plunges South Korea into renewed political turbulence, shaking
the foundations of its democratic success story and driving the Korean won down
0.40% to 1,472.22 after the Friday news. South Korea’s Kospi slid 1.02% during the Friday
session.
Earlier on Friday, the Finance Ministry’s Choi warned of the economic and
security impact of Han’s impeachment vote on Asia’s fourth-largest economy.
“In
a time of global trade wars and national emergencies, the absence of a control
tower for state affairs would cause severe damage to our country’s credibility,
economy, national security and governance continuity,” Choi said, according to
Yonhap.
The
International Monetary Fund projects 2.5% growth in South Korea’s gross
domestic product for 2024, and also a 2.5% inflation print over the period.
South Korea
impeaches acting President Han Duck-soo
Germany’s
president dissolves parliament ahead of February election
27
December 2024
German
president Frank-Walter Steinmeier has ordered the country’s parliament to be dissolved
and set new elections for February 23 in the wake of the collapse of Chancellor
Olaf Scholz’s governing coalition.
Mr
Scholz lost a confidence vote on December 16 and leads a minority government
after his unpopular and notoriously rancorous three-party coalition collapsed
on November 6 when he fired his finance minister in a dispute over how to
revitalise Germany’s stagnant economy.
Leaders
of several major parties then agreed that a parliamentary election should be
held on February 23, seven months earlier than originally planned.
Since
the post-Second World War constitution does not allow the Bundestag to dissolve
itself, it was up to Mr Steinmeier to decide whether to dissolve parliament and
call an election.
He
had 21 days to make that decision. Once parliament is dissolved, the election
must be held within 60 days.
Germany’s
president dissolves parliament ahead of February election
Panic-selling
as hated tax hits new record after Rachel Reeves Budget
27
December 2024
Panic
selling has seen Brits fork out a Capital Gains Tax (CGT) bill of more than £1
billion as they raced to sell off assets, property and shares.
Fears
that the Chancellor Rachel Reeves would push up the CGT charged on the profits
made on asset sales saw many thousands of people embark on a mass sell-off to
protect their wealth.
As
a result, the government raked in more than £1bn between July and November,
which was up by more than £200m on the same period last year, according to
figures from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC).
Experts
said the trend was fuelled by "indiscriminate panic" and
"uncertainty" among wealthy investors over the government's budget
plans.
Ahead
of the Budget, there was speculation that CGT ncould be increased from a
typical rate of 20 percent to bring it into line with income tax, which is
either 40 percent or 45 percent for high earners. Rachel Reeves did announce an
increase, but to a lower than feared level of 24 percent.
Ian
Cook, of Quilter, said: "It was panic-selling because many feared that
capital gains tax would align with income tax, instead of the 24 percent it
landed on.
"Lots
of people saw the opportunity to take gains at rates they thought they were
unlikely to see again in this Parliament.
"The
communications from the Government were not clear and it felt potentially
everything was up for grabs. I was inundated with call after call after call
about pensions and capital gains tax. The panic was indiscriminate.
"I
think it has a negative psychological impact on clients and investors not
knowing what to do for the best."
Chris
Etherington, of accountancy firm RSM, said landlords were particularly hard
hit.
He
told the Telegraph: "Ahead of the Budget, there was a lot of noise around
there being a capital gains tax rate increase. Landlords in particular thought
they might be first in line in terms of who might be impacted.
More
Panic-selling as
hated tax hits new record after Rachel Reeves Budget
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given our Magic Money
Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
Global recession in 2025? Rising inflation,
geopolitics fuel economic uncertainty
ByMudit Dube Dec 25, 2024
04:55 pm
What's
the story
As 2025 nears,
worries of a possible global recession are growing louder. This is because a
few major economies are showing evident signs of stress.A recession is
characterized by two consecutive quarters of gross domestic product (GDP)
contraction, which reflects a major decline in economic activity.Germany, Europe's largest economy, is under significant strain from soaring
energy costs, while geopolitical tensions and potential trade disruptions
involving the US and China have further fueled concerns of a global recession.
Economic
stagnation
UK and Japan's economies face
recession threat
The UK is on the
brink of a recession, with revised GDP figures showing zero growth in Q3 2024,
indicating economic stagnation.Japan, the world's third-largest economy, unexpectedly slipped into a
recession earlier this year amid weak domestic demand.Average household debt in
Japan increased to ¥6.55 million in 2023, exceeding average incomes and
compelling many households to turn to high-interest loans.
Recession impact
New Zealand's economy contracts,
marking weakest performance since 1991
New Zealand has also slipped into a recession, with its
GDP contracting by 1% in the July-September quarter.This comes after a revised
1.1% contraction in April-June.According to Kiwibank Economics,
this six-month contraction marks New Zealand's worst economic performance since
1991, barring the COVID-19 pandemic period.
Economic
resilience
US economy remains resilient amid
global recession fears
Unlike these
struggling economies, the US economy has been resilient.Goldman Sachs
recently lowered the chances of a US recession in the next 12 months to 15%,
from an earlier prediction of 20%. This was on the back of a strong job
market."There's no sign of a recession. If markets and the economy are
doing well, you might get some stress in pricing, leading to inflation,"
said Bhaskar Laxminarayan of Julius Baer.
More
Global recession in 2025? Rising inflation, geopolitics fuel economic
uncertainty
Covid-19
Corner
This section will
continue until it becomes unneeded.
This weekend, something different.
Bird flu virus shows mutations in first severe
human case in US, CDC says
Thu, December 26, 2024 at
11:30 PM GMT
(Reuters) - The U.S.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Thursday its analysis of
samples from the first severe case of bird flu in the country last week showed
mutations not seen in samples from an infected backyard flock on the patient's
property.
The CDC said the
patient's sample showed mutations in the hemagglutinin (HA) gene, the part of
the virus that plays a key role in it attaching to host cells.
The health body said the
risk to the general public from the outbreak has not changed and remains low.
Last week, the United
States reported its first severe case of the virus, in a Louisiana resident
above the age of 65, who was suffering from severe respiratory illness.
The patient was infected
with the D1.1 genotype of the virus that was recently detected in wild birds
and poultry in the United States, and not the B3.13 genotype detected in dairy
cows, human cases and some poultry in multiple states.
The mutations seen in the
patient are rare but have been reported in some cases in other countries and
most often during severe infections. One of the mutations was also seen in
another severe case from British Columbia, Canada.
No transmission from the
patient in Louisiana to other persons has been identified, said the CDC.
Bird flu virus shows mutations in first severe
human case in US, CDC says
Research in Spain reveals that olives, garlic,
grapes, rosemary and saffron act as drugs against cardiovascular disease
24 December 2024
An investigation
initiated from a bachelor's thesis at the Autonomous University of Barcelona,
with the participation of researchers from the Neurosciences Institute of the
UAB (INc-UAB), the University of Barcelona, and institutions in Cuba and Chile,
has resulted in a comprehensive literature review of a group of Mediterranean
plants whose active ingredients are reported to have pharmacological actions in
the field of cardiovascular diseases that most affect the population. The study
has been published in Food Bioscience.
Cardiovascular problems
are the leading cause of disease and mortality worldwide. Plant extracts, rich
in bioactive compounds, have significantly contributed to the development of
medications, as they offer therapeutic potential for various of these diseases.
However, their use is limited by potential side effects, drug interactions, and
the lack of scientific evidence from high-quality preclinical and clinical
studies.
During the 2023-24
academic year, biologist Mateu Anguera Tejedor made a significant contribution
in this field with his undergraduate thesis in Biology at UAB, supervised by
the former postdoctoral researcher at the Institute of Neuroscience of UAB (INc-UAB)
and current professor at the Faculty of Pharmacy and Food Sciences of the
University of Barcelona, René Delgado.
The study, recently
published as a scientific article in the journal Food Bioscience, provides an
overview of the mechanisms of action and preclinical and clinical evidence, as
well as the adverse effects of essential bioactive compounds derived from a selected
group of Mediterranean plants, which are integrated into the Mediterranean
diet.
Among the species
analyzed, six representative plants and their major active components are
reported: garlic (Allium sativum, with diallyl trisulfide, allicin, and S-allyl
[cysteine]), hawthorn (Crataegus monogyna, with quercetin, apigenin, and
chlorogenic acid), saffron (Crocus sativus, with crocin and safranal),
olive (Olea europaea, with oleic acid, oleuropein, hydroxytyrosol, and
oleacein), rosemary (Salvia rosmarinus, with rosmarinic acid and
carnosic acid), and grapevine (Vitis vinifera, with resveratrol). The
review focused on the most important pharmacological mechanisms, highlighting
their antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, and vasodilatory actions, as well as the
regulation of lipid metabolism, which may be relevant for conditions such as
atherosclerosis and hypertension. The results show that these active components
hold promise in the potential treatment of atherosclerosis and could reduce the
risk of heart attack and stroke.
In addition to
summarizing the current scientific evidence, the study serves as a reference
guide for future research, as it identifies possible knowledge gaps and
provides timely recommendations for designing preclinical and clinical studies
in this field. Key areas for future exploration include the long-term safety of
these compounds, the assessment of their synergistic effects when consumed as
part of the Mediterranean diet, and the need to establish standardized
protocols in controlled clinical settings. By expanding the scientific basis of
these traditional remedies, this review can help pave the way for using them as
active pharmaceutical ingredients in the development of future phyto-medicines.
More
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Graphene, the programmed revolution in electronics, is it coming
soon?
27 December 2024
Thibaut Lalire - PhD student in
materials science, IMT Mines Alès – Institut Mines-Télécom
"Material of the 21st century,"
"revolutionary material," this is how graphene has been described
since its discovery in 2004 by Konstantin Novoselov and Andre Geim. The work on
graphene by these two scientists earned them the 2010 Nobel Prize in Physics,
but what's the status 17 years after this breakthrough?
Graphene is globally renowned for its
remarkable properties, whether mechanical, thermal, or electrical. Its perfect
honeycomb structure composed of carbon atoms is why graphene excels in many
fields. Its morphology—formed as a sheet only about one atom thick—allows it to
belong to the family of 2D materials.
Since its discovery, industries have
intensified research on the material. Various applications have emerged,
particularly by harnessing graphene's electrical performance. Several sectors,
such as aerospace, automotive, and telecommunications, are being targeted.
Is graphene present in airplanes?
Graphene is prized not only for its
status as a champion of electrical conductivity but also for its low density
and flexibility. These properties have earned it a place in the exclusive club of materials used in the aerospace sector.
Lightning strikes and ice accumulation
on the fuselage are common challenges faced when airplanes are at high
altitudes. The impact of lightning on a non-conductive surface can cause severe
damage, even leading to the aircraft catching fire. Adding graphene, thanks to
its high electrical conductivity, helps dissipate this high-energy current.
Aircraft are designed in such a way as to channel the current as far away as
possible from high-risk areas, such as fuel tanks or control cables, to avoid
losing control of the aircraft or even explosion.
A coating made of resin reinforced with
graphene, called a "nanocomposite," is used as a substitute for
metallic coatings. Its low density allows for lighter materials than the
originals, reducing the aircraft's weight and thus its fuel consumption.
Electrically conductive materials required to dissipate lightning energy
usually suffer the drawback of reflecting electromagnetic waves, making them
unsuitable for stealth applications in the military... read
more ⯈
Graphene, the programmed revolution in electronics, is it coming soon? 🕒
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
This
weekend’s music diversion. Approx. 8 minutes.
Locatelli,
Violin Concerto No.1 in D major, 3rd mov〈The Art of Violin〉Op.3 (Giuliano
Carmignola)
Locatelli, Violin
Concerto No.1 in D major, 3rd mov〈The
Art of Violin〉Op.3 (Giuliano
Carmignola)
This
weekend’s chess diversion. Approx 9
minutes.
It
Has Begun... WITH FIREWORKS!! || Erenburg vs Firouzja || FIDE World Rapid
Championship (2024)
This
weekend’s final diversion. Approx 5 minutes.
The
History of Aviation
But: RICHARD PEARSE
Was
he the first man to 'fly' a mechanically powered aeroplane?
The gold standard makes the money's purchasing power independent
of the changing, ambitions and doctrines of political parties and pressure
groups. This is not a defect of the gold standard; it is its main excellence.
Ludwig von Mises.
