George Washington is the only president who didn’t blame the
previous administration for his troubles.
Anon.
No matter which party and old age pensioner wins today’s
US elections, Wall Street is betting on trillions of more Magic Money Tree
Money to pour out of Washington.
The polls say it will be a Democratic Socialist in the
White House, taking over in the midst of a coronavirus pandemic at age 78. An
age that suggests just a one term presidency, if not standing down earlier.
If the polls are right, it’s the outcome hoped for in
Europe, Russia, China, Iran, and much of the rest of the world.
But with a second wave of coronavirus pandemic surging
over America and Europe, leading to Europe’s main economies entering lock downs
light as winter approaches, our stock casinos are far removed from what’s
happening and about to happen in the real world economies.
Hopefully, by mid-day tomorrow the outcome of the US
election comedy will be settled. Our coronavirus challenged real economies have
a very trying winter directly ahead. Eventually, all the Magic Money Tree “money”
has to be paid for. There is no such thing as a free lunch.
U.S. Futures, Asian Stocks Rise
Ahead of Election: Markets Wrap
S&P 500
index rebounds after posting worst week since March
·Currency markets signal traders bracing for
post-poll swings
U.S. futures and Asian stocks rose Tuesday ahead of the
American presidential election, while currency traders braced for increased
volatility.
Shares in Hong Kong, Australia and South Korea climbed more
than 1%. Japan is closed for a holiday and Treasuries won’t trade until London
opens. S&P 500 contracts advanced after the benchmark equity gauge gained
Monday following last week’s 5.6% drop. Australian bond yields and the dollar
fell after the central bank cut the cash rate and said it planned to buy A$100
billion ($70 billion) of five- and 10-year bonds over the next six months.
Implied volatility for the offshore yuan spiked. The
one-week tenor -- often used as a proxy of market risk -- has more than doubled
in the past week to the highest since Bloomberg began compiling the data in
2011. Overnight gauges for other currencies, such as the Australian dollar and
sterling, also jumped as the presidential vote and its aftermath loom.
“Uncertainty will likely remain until Wednesday morning
when we should have clarity on who holds the Presidency and Senate, assuming
and this is a big if, the polls are correct,” Sebastien Galy, a senior macro
strategist at Nordea Investment Funds SA, wrote in a note.
Polls continue to show Democratic nominee Joe Biden ahead,
though battleground states remain tight. Investors are fretting about the
possibility the outcome will be contested, which means a clear winner might not
emerge for some time, weighing on market sentiment. Also, while there has been
a slight slowdown in virus cases in the U.S., several states continue to notch
record numbers of infections.
“It’s pretty much a binary outcome,” said Quincy Krosby,
chief market strategist at Prudential Financial. “The question is, is the
market right now looking at a Biden victory? And will it be disappointed if we
don’t have that?”
Once the U.S. election passes, investors will contend with
the Federal Reserve delivering a policy decision Thursday before the October
jobs report Friday. Elsewhere, oil held gains after jumping the most in three
weeks on Monday on increasing signs OPEC+ will delay a planned easing of output
cuts.
These are some key events coming up:
Earnings are due from
companies including Nintendo Co., Macquarie Group Ltd., Toyota Motor
Corp., Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and AstraZeneca Plc.
Nov.
2 (UPI) -- The three major U.S. indexes rose to
set off the month of trading on Monday as markets prepared for Election Day and
the potential effect of the result on long-awaited stimulus.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 423.45 points, or
1.6%, while the S&P 500 increased by 1.23%. The Nasdaq Composite gained
0.42% as its rise was limited by declining tech stocks.
Analysts predicted that the results of the presidential
election the various Senate races could lead to an end
in the ongoing stalemate in negotiations over another round of stimulus in
response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
"We have been emphasizing that the Senate outcome is
important for the trajectory of fiscal policy," Citi economist Andrew
Hollenhorst said.
"Under any election scenario, we expect a $1.5
trillion plus fiscal package, possibly as early as just post-election."
The Treasury Department on Monday, however, scaled back its
estimates for borrowing through the end of the year, predicting it
would borrow $617 billion from October through December down from $1.22
trillion estimated in early August.
Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, said in a note Sunday
that the market sell-off ahead of election day helps to reduce risk in the
event of a contested result.
"Even though we're worried that there could still be
one more wave down if we get another big influx of uncertainty, we think the
stock market is now setting up nicely for a nice net advance over the next two
months or so," Maley said.
The major averages entered the month coming off of their
worst week since March 20 amid rising COVID-19 cases throughout the country.
LONDON (Reuters) - Britain’s financial watchdog said on Monday it would
extend payment holidays on credit cards, car finance, personal loans and pawned
goods before tougher coronavirus restrictions come into effect this week.
Britain announced a one-month lockdown across England would start on
Thursday to contain a second wave of the pandemic.
Consumers who have not yet had a payment deferral under guidance issued
in July can request one that lasts for up to six months, the Financial Conduct
Authority said in a statement.
Borrowers who have already had one deferral would be able to apply for a
second deferral, the FCA said.
“Borrowers should only take up this support if they need it,” the FCA
said in a statement.
For high-cost, short-term credit like payday loans, consumers could
apply for a payment deferral of one month if they have not already had one, the
FCA said.
“We will work with trade bodies and lenders on how to implement these
proposals as quickly as possible, and will make another announcement shortly,”
the FCA said.
The FCA said on Saturday it would propose further relief to help
mortgage borrowers and would make a statement on Monday.
Goldman slashes Europe's
fourth-quarter economic growth outlook
November 2,
202010:04 AMBy Reuters Staff
LONDON (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs sharply cut
Europe’s fourth quarter economic forecasts on Monday as a surge in COVID-19
cases prompted the introduction of partial nationwide lockdowns in some
countries in November, halting a nascent recovery seen during the summer.
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson ordered
England back into a national lockdown from Thursday as a second wave of
infections threatened to overwhelm the health service. The move brought England
into alignment with France and Germany which imposed nationwide restrictions
early last week.
The U.S. investment bank said it expects the
euro area’s real gross domestic product (GDP) to shrink 2.3% in the fourth
quarter, a sharp reversal from its earlier projection of 2.2% growth.
Similarly, it cut UK GDP growth forecasts to
minus 2.4% from a 3.6% expansion it had earlier expected.
“Looking ahead, we assume that the new
restrictions will last for three months before they are gradually rolled back
starting in February,” Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a note to clients.
Citi economists, meanwhile, said they
expected UK GDP to shrink by over 4% between October and December. “More
protracted national lockdowns cannot be ruled out,” Citi said in a note.
“With virus risks still likely to persist
until Q2-2021, we expect output to remain more than 11-13% below Q4-2019 levels
until then, with local restrictions and an acute behavioural response weighing
sharply (alongside Brexit). The risk of more permanent effects is also
growing.”
The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who
count the votes decide everything.
Joseph Stalin
This week it’s all about the USA. More correctly, who
will become the next USA President next January.
The polls give the soon to be 78 years old challenger a
nine percent to fourteen percent lead over defending incumbent President Trump.
Though the polls were badly wrong in 2016, they are unlikely to be badly wrong
again.
Almost as important is the outcome of the Senate elections.
If the Democrat Socialists gain control of all three branches of government,
America and the rest of the world are in for at least four years of some very
left wing changes.
Would that be enough to end the Federal Reserve stock
casinos bubbles. To this old dinosaur, probably. Worse, since getting out early
always beats getting carried out last, many stock gamblers are likely to try to
rush for the exit all at the same time. Long before the Democrat Socialists get
control in January.
For most of the week what happens next in America drives most
stocks.
In the real world where most people live and work, what
happens next in the coronavirus crisis, what happens next in unemployment,
commercial and residential real estate, in oil and commodities pricing, is far
more important as winter approaches.
Asian Stocks Climb in Volatile
Trading; Oil Falls: Markets Wrap
Asian stocks climbed in a volatile start to a crucial week
spanning the U.S. election and a Federal Reserve policy meeting, events that
could set the tone for financial markets for the rest of the year. Oil tumbled
to a five-month low.
S&P 500 futures nudged up after erasing an earlier
decline. The dollar ticked higher with Treasuries. Japan stocks outperformed.
The moves at the beginning of November come after global equities posted two
months of losses.
Concern that economic growth will be hampered by further
lockdown measures in Europe dragged crude prices and commodity currencies lower. The pound slipped as
increased restrictions in England aimed at controlling the coronavirus
overshadowed signs of progress on Brexit trade talks.
The main event this week will be Tuesday’s U.S. election,
with Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump in polls.
Virus developments are also front and center with the recent surge in U.S. cases
showing signs of slowing over the weekend. Countries in Europe are restricting
the movement of people in a bid to contain the spread of the pathogen.
“Whichever way you look at it, this coming week will be
huge for U.S. and global markets,” said Simon Ballard, chief economist at First
Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC. “We see the potential for a sharp rise in volatility
around these events -- and all in the context of a still deteriorating Covid-19
situation across much of the U.S., Europe and elsewhere.”
China’s economic recovery continued in October, with manufacturing
gauges beating expectations.
Also weighing on crude Monday was a continued ramp up of production in
Libya. Meantime, gold recouped earlier losses.
These are some key events coming up:
Earnings are due from
companies including Nintendo Co., Macquarie Group Ltd., Toyota Motor
Corp., Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and AstraZeneca Plc.
Asian shares boosted by stronger
China factory data
By
YURI KAGEYAMA 2
hours ago
TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares were mostly higher on Monday buoyed by further
signs of recovery in China’s manufacturing sector.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 added 1.4% to 23,303.42 in morning trading,
while South Korea’s Kospi gained nearly 0.9% to 2,287.17. Australia’s
S&P/ASX 200 added 0.4% to 5,952.40. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged up 0.7% to
24,277.75, while the Shanghai Composite inched down less than 0.1% to 3,221.78.
The Caixin manufacturing PMI, a major indicator for China’s
manufacturing sector, rose in October, showing that domestic demand is holding
up. But if coronavirus cases continue to rise in the U.S. and Europe, that’s
likely to hurt China’s exports.
Still, a resurgence of outbreaks of COVID-19 has investors worried, on
top of uncertainty over the U.S. presidential election.
The government’s top infectious diseases expert has cautioned that the
U.S. will have to deal with “a whole lot of hurt” in the weeks ahead due to
surging coronavirus cases. Dr. Anthony Fauci said in a Washington Post
interview that the U.S. “could not possibly be positioned more poorly” to stem
rising cases as more people gather indoors during the colder fall and winter
months.
Aside from pandemic and election concerns, market players are looking
ahead to a slew of earnings reports expected from Japan and the rest of the
region, including automakers and video-game maker Nintendo Co.
“With voters in the U.S. going to the polls this week, or more
accurately, not going to the polls, having already cast their postal votes in
huge numbers, Asia will be looking nervously westwards this week, wondering
what the outcome will be, and that it will mean for them,” said Robert Carnell,
regional head of research for ING.
The focus is on U.S. China relations, but investors aren’t sure what
change either outcome might bring on that issue. Although Democratic candidate
Joseph Biden might go easier on tariffs, say he is unlikely to soften U.S.
policy on other issues such as human rights, Carnell said in a report.
Last week proved punishing for Wall Street, with the S&P 500 posting
its first back-to-back monthly loss since the coronavirus pandemic first
gripped the economy in March.
Investors have been cashing in gains from the recovery in the past
several months, moving to lock in profits ahead of the election.
Following the markets on both sides of the Atlantic since 1968. A dinosaur, who evolved with the financial system as it was perverted from capitalism to banksterism after the great Nixonian error of abandoning the dollar's link to gold instead of simply revaluing gold. Our money is too important to be left to probity challenged central banksters and crooked politicians.
