Baltic Dry Index. 2442 +64 Brent Crude 58.64 Spot Gold 1524
Never ending Brexit now October 31, maybe. 58 days away.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now In Effect.
USA v EU trade war postponed to November, maybe.
With hurricane Dorian stalled over the
northern Bahamas, our thoughts and prayers are with the people of the Bahamas
this morning.
We open today with positive spin on stocks from Reuters
Asia. Still, when have Reuters or Bloomberg ever said ”get out now, it’s time
to sell.”
Right now, stocks seem headed into a perfect storm of a
slowing global economy, a manufacturing recession, a never-ending trade war, a
deepening currency war, expanding negative interest rates in Europe, a Brexit
crisis, an US east coast hurricane threat, and a rapidly growing Hong Kong
crisis. Oh, and a new trade war between Japan and South Korea
To this old dinosaur market trader, with typical British
understatement, these are not ideal conditions to be staying long, let alone
adding to risk.
Asia stocks dented by trade war, Brexit showdown paralyzes pound
September 3, 2019
/ 2:00 AM
TOKYO
(Reuters) - Global stocks faced headwinds on Tuesday, stymied by U.S.-China
trade frictions while the British pound flirted with 2 1/2-year lows as Prime
Minister Boris Johnson indicated he could call an election to block lawmakers’
efforts to avert a no-deal Brexit.
China's mainland shares .CSI300 were fractionally lower while Hong Kong's benchmark edged up 0.1% .HSI.
The United States began imposing 15% tariffs on a variety of Chinese goods on Sunday and China began imposing new duties on U.S. crude oil, the latest escalation in their trade war.
Although U.S. President Donald Trump has said both sides would still meet for talks later this month, tensions have shown little sign of abating.
China said on Monday it lodged a complaint against the United States at the World Trade Organization over U.S. import duties, trashing the latest tariff actions as violating the consensus reached by leaders of China and the United States in a meeting in Osaka.
“We have so many problems around the world, starting from the U.S.-China trade war and Brexit. But investors appear to be getting used to be exposed to them,” said Hiroyuki Ueno, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management
“No one really thinks Washington and Beijing will solve the issues. But as long as the U.S. economy keeps going, stock prices will have limited downside,” he said.
U.S. manufacturing survey by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) due at 1400 GMT Tuesday is a major focus for investors.
Although U.S. manufacturing activity has been slowing in recent months, the ISM’s index has so far stayed above 50, pointing to growth in the sector.
More
U.S. stock futures weaken as tariffs go into effect
By Steve
Goldstein Published: Sept 2, 2019 12:34 p.m. ET
U.S. stock futures weakened on a holiday Monday as tariffs
on Chinese goods went into effect.With stock exchanges closed for Labor Day, futures on the S&P 500 ES00, -0.61% fell 0.7% to 2903.75, while futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average YM00, -0.64% dropped 199 points, or 0.8%, to 26207.
Tariffs of 15% on $112 billion of Chinese goods went into effect on Sunday, as did retaliatory
Chinese tariffs on U.S. products like crude-oil imports.
“While there were few hopes that U.S. President Trump would cancel the tariffs in a last-minute change of heart, investors were nevertheless steering clear of risk assets on the first trading day of the month amid worries that the latest hike in duties would be more damaging than previous ones,” said Raffi Boyadjian of XM Investment Research in London.
A report from Bloomberg News that the two sides are struggling to agree on what to discuss in trade talks added to the pressure.
Economists from UBS say the trade war is impacting the global economy.
“Despite headlines that go back and forth, two facts have become more and more clear over time. First, the trend is toward escalation, not de-escalation. Second, the cost of the uncertainty accumulates as time goes on without resolution, weighing on both the domestic and global economies,” they said in a note to clients.
More
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-weaken-as-tariffs-go-into-effect-2019-09-02?mod=mw_theo_homepage
In Hong Kong news, is China about to act?
Young traitors to ruin themselves
Source:Global Times Published: 2019/9/2
22:08:40
Two young leaders of violent protests in
Hong Kong, Joshua Wong Chi-fung and Alex Chow Yong-kang, published an article
in The New York Times on Saturday, urging US legislators to vote on the Hong
Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019, which would "give the
president of the United States the power to penalize Chinese officials who
interfere in Hong Kong affairs."
They are proactively seeking refuge with their US master, calling the "resistance movement" in Hong Kong "a critical frontline battle against the authoritarian Chinese Communist Party in Beijing."
Rioters like Wong are the new generation of traitors. They are frenziedly staking Hong Kong's future on a final bet for the interests of their small group. But be it street violence, blocking the airport, vandalizing the Hong Kong Legislative Council building or insulting the Chinese national flag and emblem, the framework of the "one country, two systems" principle has not been shaken at all.
They are proactively seeking refuge with their US master, calling the "resistance movement" in Hong Kong "a critical frontline battle against the authoritarian Chinese Communist Party in Beijing."
Rioters like Wong are the new generation of traitors. They are frenziedly staking Hong Kong's future on a final bet for the interests of their small group. But be it street violence, blocking the airport, vandalizing the Hong Kong Legislative Council building or insulting the Chinese national flag and emblem, the framework of the "one country, two systems" principle has not been shaken at all.
Therefore, like all traitors in history, they are
clinging tightly to external forces and treat the latter as their way out.
The Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act was introduced by US senators in June 2019, requiring the US secretary of state to "annually certify to Congress… whether Hong Kong is sufficiently autonomous to justify special treatment by the United States for bilateral agreements and programs" including whether Hong Kong can retain the status of a "separate customs territory," and entitling the US government to impose sanctions on Chinese officials who "violate" relevant regulations.
It is a hegemonic bill that can be used to maliciously interfere in China's internal affairs. They believe China-US relations will be impacted once the act is adopted and implemented.
Under the existing US-Hong Kong Policy Act, a 1992 act enacted by the US Congress, US preferential treatment for Hong Kong in economic, trade and finance are by no means a gift. Such treatment is beneficial to Hong Kong as well as the Chinese mainland, but also favors the US and many parties' interests.
Once the US withdraws its special treatment, the development of Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland will be affected to some extent, but China, which includes the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR), has the ability to adjust. China's destiny is not in the hands of the US. There is no room for the US to manipulate China's fate.
The US cannot even win the trade war with China. Being traitors apparently comes with less benefits but higher risks.
Wong and Chow asked the US to sanction their home city, Hong Kong. Whatever their reasons are, such villainy will be punished. The traitors showed the US their determination to be "martyrs."
The Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act was introduced by US senators in June 2019, requiring the US secretary of state to "annually certify to Congress… whether Hong Kong is sufficiently autonomous to justify special treatment by the United States for bilateral agreements and programs" including whether Hong Kong can retain the status of a "separate customs territory," and entitling the US government to impose sanctions on Chinese officials who "violate" relevant regulations.
It is a hegemonic bill that can be used to maliciously interfere in China's internal affairs. They believe China-US relations will be impacted once the act is adopted and implemented.
Under the existing US-Hong Kong Policy Act, a 1992 act enacted by the US Congress, US preferential treatment for Hong Kong in economic, trade and finance are by no means a gift. Such treatment is beneficial to Hong Kong as well as the Chinese mainland, but also favors the US and many parties' interests.
Once the US withdraws its special treatment, the development of Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland will be affected to some extent, but China, which includes the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR), has the ability to adjust. China's destiny is not in the hands of the US. There is no room for the US to manipulate China's fate.
The US cannot even win the trade war with China. Being traitors apparently comes with less benefits but higher risks.
Wong and Chow asked the US to sanction their home city, Hong Kong. Whatever their reasons are, such villainy will be punished. The traitors showed the US their determination to be "martyrs."
More
Hong Kong leader denies Beijing won't let her resign
September 3, 2019
/ 3:40 AM
HONG
KONG (Reuters) - Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam said on Tuesday she has never
asked the Chinese government to let her resign to end the city’s political
crisis, responding to a Reuters report about a voice recording of her saying
she would step down if she could.
Hundreds of thousands of people have taken to the streets since mid-June
in protests at a now-suspended extradition bill which would see people sent to
mainland China for trial in Communist Party controlled courts.
Lam told business leaders last week that she had caused “unforgivable havoc”
by introducing the extradition bill and that if she had a choice then she would
apologise and resign, according to a leaked audio recording.
Lam told a televised news conference on Tuesday that she had never
considered asking to resign and that Beijing believed her government could
solve the three-months long crisis without mainland China’s intervention.
“I have not even contemplated discussing a resignation to the central
people’s government. The choice of resigning, it’s my own choice,” Lam said.
“I told myself repeatedly in the last three months that I and my team
should stay on to help Hong Kong ... That’s why I said that I have not given
myself the choice to take an easier path and that is to leave.”
Lam added that she was disappointed that comments made in a private
meeting, where she had been sharing the “journey of my heart”, had been leaked.
More
Xinhua warns 'end is coming' for Hong Kong protesters
Chinese state media blasts West for
attempting to 'kidnap' the city
MITSURU OBE, Nikkei staff writer
TOKYO -- China issued a stern warning to Hong Kong protesters as well as
the West on Sunday, reiterating that it will not tolerate any attempt to
undermine Chinese sovereignty over the city.
"The end is coming for those attempting to disrupt Hong Kong and
antagonize China," stated a commentary piece published by the state's
Xinhua News Agency.
The strongly worded message was directed at "the rioters and their
behind-the-scene supporters" -- which can be taken as an accusation of
Western meddling. It said that "their attempt to 'kidnap Hong Kong' and
press the central authorities is just a delusion," adding, "No
concession should be expected concerning such principle issues."
The warning came as thousands of people blocked roads and public
transport links to Hong Kong's airport. The demonstrations, which started in
response to a proposed bill that would have allowed extradition to the
mainland, have morphed into a broader rejection of Beijing's growing control
over the semiautonomous city.
The commentary said three lines must not be crossed: no one should harm
Chinese sovereignty, challenge the power of the central authorities or use Hong
Kong to infiltrate and undermine the mainland.
More
Next, more dodgy statistics from the UN climate IPCC. The
“science,” far from settled, is more like propaganda.
A Famine of Fact at U.N. Climate Panel
The IPCC sounds an alarm about food production, but another U.N. agency’s data show it’s a false one.
By
James Taylor Aug. 30, 2019 5:42 pm ET
“Climate change . . . has adversely impacted food security and
terrestrial ecosystems as well as contributed to desertification and land
degradation in many regions,” the report asserts. “Warming compounded by drying
has caused yield declines in parts of Southern Europe. Based on indigenous and
local knowledge, climate change is affecting food security in drylands,
particularly those in Africa, and high mountain regions of Asia and South
America.”
At the same time, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization reports
that new records were set for global corn, wheat and rice production five years
running through 2017, the most recent year for which data are available. How is
that possible?
The IPCC report parses words and engages in semantic tricks to give
readers a false impression of declining global crop production. Note the
reference to declining yields in “parts” of Southern Europe. The report doesn’t
mention that yields are increasing in Southern Europe as a whole. What sense
does it make to blame declining yields in a small portion of the world on
global warming without crediting global warming for global gains?
The IPCC claims that “indigenous and local knowledge”—as distinct from
objectively quantifiable data—supports its claim of declining food production
in “drylands” of Africa, Asia and South America. Yet data show crop yields are
increasing throughout all three continents and in almost all the nations
characterized by drylands.
Environmental activist groups, bureaucrats, socialists looking to
transform Western society, and biased journalists continue to make climate
claims that have no basis in fact. They hope a constant drumbeat of
authoritative-sounding falsehoods will convince you we’re in a crisis only they
can solve.
Finally, India, and UK and Ireland, yet more signs of a
growing global manufacturing recession.
India manufacturing PMI dipped to 15-month low
By Saurabh
Chaturvedi Published: Sept 2, 2019
3:15 a.m. ET
India's manufacturing activity eased in August with the Purchasing
Managers' Index hitting a 15-month low, in the latest sign of ongoing weakness
in the economy.
The purchasing managers index for August fell to 51.4 from 52.5 in July,
IHS Markit said in a statement on Monday. A PMI reading above 50 indicates
expansion while a reading below that points to contraction in activity.
The PMI reading comes after data Friday showed India's economic growth slowed
to a six-year low in the fiscal first quarter.
The gross domestic product growth at Asia's third-largest economy
slipped to a weaker-than-expected 5.0% in the three months through June
compared with a year earlier.
Last month saw "an undesirable combination of slowing economic
growth and greater cost inflationary pressures in the Indian manufacturing
industry," IHS Markit principal economist Pollyanna de Lima said.
There was drop in input buying activity that reflected a mixture of
intentional reductions in stocks and shortages of available finance, she said.
"Until manufacturers are willing to loosen the purse strings, it's
difficult to foresee a meaningful rebound in production growth on the
horizon," she said.
British manufacturing PMI drops to seven-year low in August
The IHS Markit/CIPS U.K. manufacturing PMI
fell in August to a seven-year low of 47.4, down from 48 in July. Econommists
polled by FactSet expected a 48.3 reading. Any reading under 50 indicates
contracting conditions.
"The high levels of economic and political
uncertainty pervasive across domestic and global markets continued to weigh
heavily on the performance of UK manufacturing during August. Output volumes
fell as intakes of new work contracted at the fastest pace for over seven
years, while business optimism dropped to a series-record low," IHS Markit
said.
Irish manufacturing activity shrinks for third straight month - PMI
September 2,
2019 / 1:34 AM
DUBLIN (Reuters) - Irish factory activity shrank for the third
successive month in August and at a similar pace to July as a global
manufacturing slowdown and Brexit uncertainty continued to weigh on demand, a
survey showed on Monday.
The recent dip in activity in the sector is the first since a near
identical three-month downturn in early 2013, just before Ireland’s economy
began its run as the EU’s best performer for each of the last five years.
The economy has managed to weather the uncertainty created by the June
2016 vote by Britain, its near neighbour and close trading partner, to leave
the EU, although data last week showed some moderation in the rapid pace of
jobs growth.
The AIB IHS Markit manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) edged
slightly lower to 48.6 in August from 48.7 in July, remaining below the 50 mark
that separates growth from contraction.
While the contraction in output and new export orders was not as sharp
as July, pre-production inventories fell for the first time in a year to 48.0
from 50.8 in the previous month, with panellists citing weaker demand
conditions.
The sub-index measuring stocks of purchases had hit its highest level in
the 21-year history of the survey in March, as manufacturers stockpiled ahead
of the then March 31 Brexit deadline that has since been extended to Oct. 31.
More
I learned early that there is
nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the
hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will
happen again. I’ve never forgotten that.
Jesse Livermore
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
80 years ago today, Britain declared war on Germany over Germany’s
invasion of Poland. Later that same day a U-boat torpedoed it’s first passenger
liner.
Today, the sad story of the SS Athenia, the first ship sunk in World War
Two, and sunk in error. What rapidly goes wrong in war, which is why it’s
generally a good idea not to start them.
Sinking of SS Athenia
The first shots of the Battle of the Atlantic was fired on September 3rd
1939, by Fritz Julius Lemp of U-30, a Type VIIA U-boat while on patrol in the
northwestern sector of Ireland. When France and Great Britain declared war on
Germany, Hitler was still hopeful of a diplomatic resolution. He believed that
he might yet be able to dissuade the Western Powers from war and to this end,
he issued strict orders for U-boats to follow the Prize Regulations. Under
these regulations, attacks against passenger liners were prohibited, but
unfortunately, the first ship that was sunk by a U-boat turned out to be a
passenger liner. It caused an immediate furor in both Allied and neutral
circles. It appeared that Germany was in favor of conducting unrestricted
submarine warfare, as it had done during the First World War which came so
close to strangling the shipping lanes of Great Britain.
This chapter presents the political situation surrounding the U-boat
force at the onset of war, the events that unfolded during the first sinking
and the aftermath of the incident.
On that day, when France and Great Britain declared war on Germany,
Hitler was still optimistic of a diplomatic solution. He believed he might yet
be able to persuade the Western Powers to accept German sovereignty in Europe,
just as how the British had established colonies in Asia. If he was successful,
then Poland would have been gained at a low price. To that end, he issued
strict orders for the U-boat force to follow the Prize Regulations, which
Germany had signed in 1936. Under the Prize rules, merchant ships had to be
stopped and searched, and if found to be carrying contraband, then it could be
sunk, but only after the crews had been safely evacuated in lifeboats and
provisioned for. If no contraband was found, then the ship was allowed to sail
on unmolested. Only warships, including troopships and vessels escorted in
convoys could be sunk without warning. Attacks on passenger liners were
strictly prohibited.
----At 1630
hours, U-30 was at the northern tip of its patrol zone when the bridge watch
sighted a large ship looming in the distant horizon. U-30’s patrol zone was at
Grid AM1631, which Lemp had chosen for concealment as it was out of the normal
shipping lanes. Lemp made speed on the surface to close the distance, then
dived for a closer periscope inspection. By 1900 hours, the two vessels had
closed. Peering through his periscope, and by now in the fading light of the
summer evening, Lemp observed that she was darkened and was zigzagging at high
speeds in front of the U-boat. She was large enough to be a passenger liner,
but passenger liners were not supposed to be blacked out or zigzagging as if
they were combatant vessels. On this basis and her unusual route through
Rockall banks, Lemp concluded that she must be a British Armed Merchant
Cruiser, a converted passenger liner fitted with naval guns and thus fair game
under the Prize Regulations.
He sent his crew to battle stations and made ready two torpedo tubes. At
1940 hours, from a submerged position, Lemp fired the first shots of the Battle
of the Atlantic. The first torpedo struck the target squarely, stopping her
dead in its tracks. The second had malfunctioned and ran wild. Fearing that it
might circle back and endanger the boat, he dived deep to evade and resurfaced
only after the danger had passed. By that time, the sky had darkened as it was
about twilight. From the bridge of U-30, Lemp observed the listing target
through his binoculars. It did not appear to be in danger of sinking, so he
fired a third torpedo at it. It too malfunctioned and ran wild. Exasperated at
the torpedo failures, Lemp edged ever closer to finish off the kill.
Taking
care to keep the moon at his back, as this helped conceal the approaching
U-boat, Lemp was now able to clearly make out the silhouette of the darkened
ship. He checked it against the boat’s copy of the Lloyd’s Register and what he
discovered horrified him. After all the warnings and orders issued by his
Fuehrer about attacking passenger liners, he discovered his error and learnt
that he had just torpedoed the SS Athenia, a 13,580 ton British
passenger liner of the Donaldson line. All doubts about the identity of the
ship were removed when the operator of the Athenia radioed a distress call in
plain English, providing her identity, position and a three letter code SSS,
meaning she was attacked by a submarine. As it turned out, the Athenia was
bound for Canada with over 1,100 passengers, including women and children and
311 Americans who were fleeing the war which had just erupted in England.
Lemp did not render any assistance to his victims and fearing that he
might be recalled and relieved, he did not report the incident to BdU. He
simply sailed away silently.
----Donitz
first learnt about news of the sinking from the BBC. It came as a rude shock to
him and to that of Grand Admiral Raeder. Berlin was still in the dark as Lemp
had yet to report in. But after reviewing the patrol zones of all U-boats
deployed in the Atlantic, Donitz had concluded correctly that Lemp in the U-30
had sunk the Athenia.
More
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Mathematicians develop new statistical indicator
Date:
August 9, 2019
Source:
Technische Universität Dresden
Summary:
Up to now, it has taken a great deal of computational effort to detect
dependencies between more than two high-dimensional variables, in particular
when complicated non-linear relationships are involved. Mathematicians have now
developed a dependence measure called 'distance multivariance'.
In statistics, correlations are important for predicting the future
behaviour of variables. Such scientific forecasts are frequently requested by
the media, be it for football or election results.
To measure linear dependence, scientists use the so-called correlation
coefficient, which was first introduced by the British natural scientist Sir
Francis Galton (1822-1911) in the 1870s. Shortly afterwards, the mathematician
Karl Pearson provided a formal mathematical justification for the correlation
coefficient. Therefore, mathematicians also speak of the "Pearson
product-moment correlation" or the "Pearson correlation."
If, however, the dependence between the variables is non-linear, the
correlation coefficient is no longer a suitable measure for their dependence.
René Schilling, Professor of Probability at TU Dresden, emphasises:
"Up to now, it has taken a great deal of computational effort to detect
dependencies between more than two high-dimensional variables, in particular
when complicated non-linear relationships are involved. We have now found an
efficient and practical solution to this problem."
Dr. Björn Böttcher, Prof. Martin Keller-Ressel and Prof. René Schilling
from TU Dresden's Institute of Mathematical Stochastics have developed a
dependence measure called "distance multivariance." The definition of
this new measure and the underlying mathematical theory were published in the
leading international journal Annals of Statistics under the title
"Distance Multivariance: New
Dependence Measures for Random Vectors."
Martin Keller-Ressel explains: "To calculate the dependence
measure, not only the values of the observed variables themselves, but also
their mutual distances are recorded and from these distance matrices, the
distance multivariance is calculated. This intermediate step allows for the
detection of complex dependencies, which the usual correlation coefficient
would simply ignore. Our method can be applied to questions in bioinformatics,
where big data sets need to be analysed."
In a follow-up study, it was shown that the classical correlation
coefficient and other known dependence measures can be regained as borderline
cases from the distance multivariance.
Björn Böttcher concludes by pointing out: "We provide all necessary
functions in the package 'multivariance' for the free statistics software 'R',
so that all interested parties can test the application of the new dependence
measure."
The desire for constant action irrespective
of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even
among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money everyday,
as though they were working for regular wages.
Jesse Livermore
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished August
DJIA: 26,403 +52 Down. NASDAQ: 7,963 +59 Down.
SP500: 2,926 +53 unchanged.
An inconclusive month, but
all three shows signs of weakening.
