Baltic Dry Index. 2876 +41
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $3,000.
"A man who has not been in Italy, is always conscious of an inferiority, from his not having seen what it is expected a man should see."
Samuel Johnson
It’s over says, Professor Roubini, “the US has run out of bullets.” Germany’s Dr. Sinn and Harvard’s Professor Ferguson both agree. For now the US is living on borrowed time. Why not, just about everything else in the US economy is borrowed, either from foreigners now realizing that they have been duped for years by US politicians, or borrowed sales from the future via home and auto subsidies. My guess is that the borrowed time runs out sometime after the US mid-term elections in November. 2011 is shaping up to be a very ugly economic year.
Below, the doomsters gathering on the shores of Lake Como. Not even the natural beauty of the setting could raise their gloom.
"The Creator made Italy from designs by Michelangelo."
Mark Twain
No defence left against double-dip recession, says Nouriel Roubini
The United States, Japan and large parts of Europe have exhausted their policy arsenal, leaving them defenceless against a double-dip recession as recovery slows to ‘stall speed’.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor in Cernobbio, Italy
Published: 9:49AM BST 05 Sep 2010
“The US has run out of bullets,” said Nouriel Roubini, professor at New York University, and one of a caste of luminaries with grim forecasts at the annual Ambrosetti conference on Lake Como.
“More quantitative easing (bond purchases) by the Federal Reserve is not going to make any difference. Treasury yields are already down to 2.5pc yet credit spreads are widening again. Monetary policy can boost liquidity but it can’t deal with solvency problems,” he told Europe’s policy elite.
Dr Roubini said the US growth rate was likely to fall below 1pc in the second half of the year, despite the biggest stimulus in history: a cut in interest rates from 5pc to zero, a budget deficit of 10pc of GDP, and $3 trillion to shore up the financial system.
The anaemic pace compares with rates of 4pc-6pc at this stage of recovery in normal post-war recoveries.
“We have reached stall speed. Any shock at this point can tip you back into recession. With interbank spreads rising, you can get a vicious circle like 2008-2009,” he said, describing a self-feeding process as the real economy and the credit system hurt each other.
“There is a 40pc chance of double-dip recession in the US, and worse in Japan. Even if it is not technically a recession it will feel like it,” he added.
Hans-Werner Sinn, head of Germany’s IFO Institute, said the US would have to purge its debt excesses the hard way.
“The bitter truth is that there is no way out of this with monetary and fiscal policy. They will just have to see their living standards go down. I see a decade of difficulties for the US,” he said.
Dr Sinn said the US the market for mortgage securities (CDOs) had collapsed from $1.9 trillion in 2006 to just $50bn last year, leaving the US property market reliant on federal agencies.
“The world is simply not willing to buy these dubious financial products again. Germany is leaving, China is no longer there, and Japan is pulling away. The US system of mortgage finance is on government life support and that cannot drive a sustainable upswing,” he said.
Harvard Professor Niall Ferguson said the US has exhausted fiscal stimulus given warnings from the Congressional Budget Office that interest payments as a share of tax revenues will reach 20pc by 2020 and 36pc by 2030 without drastic retrenchment.
“The fiscal crisis seems to be out of control. The 'big crossover’ is approaching when the US spends more on debt service costs than on security, and historically that is the tipping point for any global power,” he said.
Mr Ferguson said the “Chimerica” marriage of recent years is on the rocks. China is no longer willing to fund the US Treasury bond market, cutting its share of holdings from 13pc to 10pc of the total debt stock.
While China must find ways to recycle its trade surplus and hold down the yuan, it is doing this by stockpiling commodities, buying hard assets around the world, or rotating into Asian bonds.
Dr Roubini said US companies have plenty of cash but are boosting profits by a policy of “slash and burn” on labour costs. “We’ve lost 8.4m jobs and if you include the loss of hours worked it is equivalent to another 3m. We need to generate an extra 450,000 jobs every month for three years to get it back,” he said.
After all that doom, we end today’s shorter edition with something to uplift the spirit. Follow the links for why the doomsters went to “heaven” in northern Italy. Normal service resumes tomorrow.
"You may have the universe if I may have Italy."
Giuseppe Verdi
THE ITALIAN’ HEAVEN – LAKE COMO
http://www.wayfaring.info/2008/11/01/the-italian-heaven-lake-como/
Cernobbio
http://www.comoeilsuolago.it/eng/cernobbioE.htm
Detailed Facts about Lake Como, Italy
http://www.comoguide.com/about-lake-como.html
“Consult not your fears but your hopes and your dreams. Think not about your frustrations, but about your unfulfilled potential. Concern yourself not with what you tried and failed in, but with what it is still possible for you to do.”
Pope John XXIII 1958-1963.
At the Comex silver depositories Friday, final figures were: Registered 51.83 Moz, Eligible 58.88 Moz, Total 110.71 Moz.
+++++
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Next, why do I get the sense America has an important election coming up?
A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul.
George Bernard Shaw. Socialist.
SEPTEMBER 4, 2010
Government to Deploy Broader Mortgage Aid
The Obama administration on Tuesday will launch its most ambitious effort at reducing mortgage balances for homeowners who owe more than their homes are worth.
Officials say between 500,000 and 1.5 million so-called underwater loans could be modified through the program, the first initiative to target homeowners who are current on their mortgage payments but are at risk of default because they have no equity in their homes. Some experts are warning, however, that the same knots that tied up prior initiatives could do so again.
Under the new "short refinance" program, banks and other creditors that write down mortgages to less than the value of the property can essentially hand off the reduced loan to the government. The process involves refinancing borrowers into loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration.
While the program puts taxpayers at risk—officials estimate one in five loans in the program could default—the government has set aside $14 billion previously earmarked for housing aid from the Troubled Asset Relief Program to cover losses.
The new program, which was announced in March, is starting as the housing market shows signs of renewed trouble and as the Obama administration's signature Home Affordable Modification Program, or HAMP, falls short of its goals of helping three million homeowners. Half of the 1.3 million borrowers that enrolled in temporary loan modifications have fallen out of HAMP because they didn't qualify. Only one-third has received permanent modifications.
The initiative also comes as mortgage rates fall to their lowest levels in more than 50 years. Average rates on 30-year fixed-rate loans dropped to 4.43% last week, down from 4.55% during the previous week, according to a survey published Wednesday by the Mortgage Bankers Association.
One of the biggest dangers facing the housing market is the glut of underwater homeowners who could default if their personal finances or home prices worsen. About 11 million borrowers, or 23% households with a mortgage, were underwater as of June 30, according to CoreLogic Inc.
“It’s easier to resist at the beginning than at the end.”
Leonardo da Vinci. 1452-1519
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished August:
DJIA: +243 Down. NASDAQ: +366 Down. SP500: +243 Down.
The bull market (or bear market rally) that commenced on Nasdaq on 30/4/09 at 1717 has ended. (30/5/09 SP 500 at 919, 30/5/09 DJIA 8500.) While the indicators can flip flop at market turns, this action is rare on the slow monthly indicators. August is the third down month in a row and “crash season” approaches.
