Saturday 28 August 2010

Weekend Update – August 28, 2010

Baltic Dry Index. 2712 - 44 on the week.

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $3,000.

"policy options are available to provide additional stimulus"

Ben Bernanke. August 27, 2010.

With the “good news” from Jackson Hole widely covered in the mainstream media, I will just confine myself to the following observation, once started on Quantitative Easing it’s practically impossible to stop. A few months back both the Fed and the BOE trumpeted that they had won the war, “mission accomplished” and that at some point ahead they were looking to unwind all the QE. It was lying nonsense then and as we now see, the Fed is about to initiate QE2 and what the WSJ calls “bolder moves”. Once started, there is no way back. QE will become a regular tool of both central banks, until eventually the USA and UK default or trigger currency revulsion and hyperinflation. Greenspan-Bernanke’s dismal past record of always opting for the wrong decision, is now about to catch up with the Bernanke Fed. If QE works, why is Zimbabwe not rich, and why not “boldly” have the Fed buy up a house or an apartment and car for everyone? We are “boldly” heading towards Reykjavik.

Next we’re doomed! The tall buildings index just got another recession signal. And this on the heels of back to back Hindenburg Signals!

The ability of the index to predict economic collapse is surprising. For example, the Panic of 1907 was presaged by the building of the Singer Building (completed in 1908) and the Metropolitan Life Building (completed in 1909). The skyscraper index also accurately predicted the Great Depression with the completion of 40 Wall Tower in 1929, the Chrysler Building in 1930, and the Empire State Building in 1931.

City council approves plans for new tower near Empire State Building

NBC New York August 25, 2010

The full City Council has approved plans to build a new skyscraper that will stand taller than the Empire State Building -- currently the highest tower in New York City.

The project, which gained council approval around 2:30 p.m. today [Aug. 25], is expected to create 7,000 jobs and will include $150 million in transportation infrastructure improvements.

Earlier today, both the Zoning and Franchising subcommittee and Land Use committee had already voted in favor of allowing construction of the 15 Penn Plaza project.

The Empire State Building's owner opposes the project. Anthony Malkin says the proposed 1,200-foot glass office tower will ruin the view from the renowned landmark and negatively alter the skyline.

http://www.glassmagazine.com/news-item/commercial/city-council-approves-plans-new-tower-near-empire-state-building-106618

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We end for today with news from India. In just 5 weeks time the Commonwealth Games are heading for a fiasco.

Mosquitoes and Delays: India's Commonwealth Games Mess

The biggest international sporting spectacle ever to head for India is just five weeks away — and the Commonwealth Games are still mired in controversy, inefficiency, bureaucratic infighting and delays. Even the anthem — composed by double Oscar winner A.R. Rahman of "Jai Ho" fame — is late. At a press conference on Aug. 16 meant to unveil the song, Rahman sang one line and then said the song wasn't quite ready. "I still have to tweak some lyrics and do much more modification with the sound elements," he explained. A source in India's Sport Ministry, though, said the delay was due to a "lack of agreement over which minister should actually be given the honors" of introducing the song.

The games have much more serious problems. India has already spent at least $4.6 billion — nine times more than its December 2003 estimate of $500 million — to upgrade stadiums, refurbish roads and build power and water utilities. It spent another $2.7 billion on a new airport terminal. But the 12-day-long event, which will see athletes competing from the former British Commonwealth, has already been marred by allegations of corruption even before its start in New Delhi on Oct. 3.

The Indian government is in full damage-control mode. Trying to salvage the event, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has formed a special group of ministers and assigned 10 senior bureaucrats to oversee the completion of various unfinished games projects. Sonia Gandhi, leader of the ruling Congress Party, said that those guilty of corruption would not be spared after the mega sports event is over. "The prestige of the nation is involved," she said.
Mother Nature has, indeed, played a part. New Delhi's monsoon usually hits in late July, which would have given games organizers a few weeks after the rains had subsided to finish construction. Instead, this year's late monsoon has kept the city a waterlogged mess through August. Roads in the Indian capital are collapsing, including some of the new ones laid out for the games. "Already more than 20 roads have caved in," says Ajay Chadha, special commissioner of police for traffic. "The number of cases of road collapse have increased manifold this year. And some roads which have no history of such incidents have also caved in after upgradation work was done on them for the Commonwealth Games."
Debris from the construction work has also choked New Delhi's main storm-water drains, which carry excess rainwater into the Yamuna River. For all the new bike lanes, bus stations and high-tech toilets that they have built, the planners apparently never intended to install a new drainage system or to upgrade the old one.


----Then there are the cost overruns. The $7.5 billion price tag for the 2010 Commonwealth Games is already the highest ever for the event (the 2006 games held in Melbourne may have cost close to $1 billion). But the costs include, according to documents provided to investigators by the organizing committee, $89 rolls of toilet paper, $61 soap dispensers, $125 first-aid kits and treadmills rented for 45 days at a cost of $23,080 each. And there is the problem of contracts.
Read more: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2013182,00.html#ixzz0xo43cVlC

Have a great weekend everyone.

GI.

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