Baltic Dry Index. 2841 +85
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $3,000.
"It is a wide road that leads to war and only a narrow path that leads home again."
Anon.
Are we in line for an Autumn surprise? Rupert Murdoch’s pro-war media are back conditioning the public again against Iran. Below, the Journal takes up recent events inside Iran. By all accounts in today’s Journal, any action against Iran ought to be another “cakewalk”. Iran by all accounts is failing from within, at war with itself. Is President Obama up for “shock and awe two?” Is another “slam-dunk” being planned?
"Ladies and gentlemen, these are not assertions. These are facts, corroborated by many sources, some of them sources of the intelligence services of other countries."
Secretary of State Colin Powell, to the United Nations Security Council, Feb. 5, 2003
AUGUST 24, 2010
Cracks in the Iranian Monolith
Opposition is spreading in the streets, in prisons, and even in the military
The Iranian regime loves to boast of its military strength, international clout and hold on domestic power. Much of this is accepted by outside experts, but in fact the regime is in trouble. Iran's leaders have lost legitimacy in the eyes of the people, are unable to manage the country's many problems, face a growing opposition, and are openly fighting with one another.
A few weeks ago, according to official and private reports, the Iranian air force shot down three drones near the south-western city of Bushehr, where a Russian-supplied nuclear reactor has just started up. When the Revolutionary Guards inspected the debris, they expected to find proof of high-altitude spying. Instead, the Guards had to report to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei that the air force had blasted Iran's own unmanned aircraft out of the sky.
The Iranian regime loves to boast of its military strength, international clout and hold on domestic power. Much of this is accepted by outside experts, but in fact the regime is in trouble. Iran's leaders have lost legitimacy in the eyes of the people, are unable to manage the country's many problems, face a growing opposition, and are openly fighting with one another.
A few weeks ago, according to official and private reports, the Iranian air force shot down three drones near the southwestern city of Bushehr, where a Russian-supplied nuclear reactor has just started up. When the Revolutionary Guards inspected the debris, they expected to find proof of high-altitude spying. Instead, the Guards had to report to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei that the air force had blasted Iran's own unmanned aircraft out of the sky.
---- These incidents have taken place against a general backdrop of internal conflict within the regime. In late July, Mohammad Ali Jaffari, commander of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, the regime's Praetorian Guard, admitted publicly that many top officers were supporters of the opposition Green Movement. Shortly thereafter, according to official government announcements, some 250 officers suddenly resigned. In the past weeks, several journalists from the Guards' FARS news agency have defected, some to France and others to the United States.
Meanwhile, Iran has suffered a series of attacks against its petroleum industry. As Iranian media reported (detailed in the London Telegraph), a pipeline to Turkey was blown up last month, most likely by Kurdish oppositionists. Soon afterwards there was an explosion in a natural gas pipeline near Tabriz.
That was followed by a spectacular blast at the Pardis petrochemical plant in Assalouye, which—being a major facility for converting natural gas to fuel for vehicles—is central to Iranian efforts to cope with the new United Nations, U.S. and European Union sanctions against refined petroleum products.
The same plant was similarly sabotaged six months ago. No one has taken responsibility for that attack, but it suggests an activist opposition with considerable "inside" assistance.
That opposition is fed by enduring social and economic crises. Unemployment last month reached 15% and is as high as 45% in some regions. In Tehran, health officials warned pregnant women and mothers of young children not to drink the water. Electrical failures are widespread. Taxi drivers have been striking around the country this summer, some because of the long lines at gas stations and others because of a shortage of compressed natural gas. The sanctions seem to be having an effect.
As these pressures have mounted, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—against whom Iranians chant "Death to the Dictator!" at public gatherings and nightly from their rooftops—has sought to reaffirm his authority. Late last month he issued a fatwa declaring that his opinions had a status equal to those of the prophet Mohammed. The fatwa caused such consternation that it was removed from his website, then quietly returned a few days later.
More.
Mr. Ledeen, a scholar at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, is the author of "Accomplice to Evil: Iran and the War Against the West" (St. Martin's, 2009).
Next, more on the futility of discretionary war. Lessons unlearned by Messrs Blair and Brown as they toyed with Her Majesty’s Army. Below, does anyone remember them now, or the forlorn cause in which they were ordered to sacrifice for? What top vital national interest had Britain at stake in the region, and if there was one, just why would the Admiralty think just three ships would make all the difference? The more things change the more they stay the same. Penny packet deployments in unwise areas that lack reasonable means of support. Who thought Camp Keating Afghanistan, was a wise use of brave men, material and wealth.
"My answer is bring 'em on."
President George W. Bush
British warships sunk 90 years ago found
By Kunal Dutta Tuesday, 24 August 2010
The wrecks of three British warships that were intended to forestall a Soviet and German takeover of the Baltic states after 1917's October revolution have been found off the coast of Estonia.
An Estonian minesweeper located the remains of the cruiser HMS Cassandra and two Flower Class sloops, HMS Myrtle and HMS Gentian, in 300ft of water near the island of Saaremaa. The vessels were sunk as they tried to protect Estonia from being overrun by Bolshevik or German forces after Vladimir Lenin seized power in neighbouring Russia.
Commander Ivo Vark, the chief-of-staff of the Estonian navy, said the wrecks legally belonged to Britain and added: "We are confident these are the British ships in question, which were lost during the war of independence."
The vessels formed part of a British squadron sent to the Baltic Sea in 1918 to extend support and deliver arms to the newly-created state of Estonia, which was fighting to remain independent of both Russia and Germany.
The light cruiser Cassandra sank on 6 December 1918 after hitting a mine. The explosion killed 10 sailors but the remaining crew of 400 was evacuated. The minesweepers Gentian and Myrtle both sank on 15 July 1919 while on routine patrols. Nine sailors died in the two blasts.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/british-warships-sunk-90-years-ago-found-2060267.html
"When planning a military expedition into Pashtun Tribal areas, the first thing you must plan is your retreat. All expeditions into this area sooner or later end in retreat under fire."
British General Andrew Skeen. 1895
At the Comex silver depositories Monday, final figures were: Registered 50.82 Moz, Eligible 60.69 Moz, Total 111.51 Moz.
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Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, more on Bloomberg v the banksters at the Federal Reserve. What have they got to hide, I wonder, and why must it be kept a state secret of the first order? Why should a central bank have secrets from the people it’s supposed to be serving, unless of course it’s not serving the people. What did they know and when did they know it, and how and why did they decide to swamp some in cash while others were hammered to J.P. Morgan at an arbitrary price?
"It is always the best policy to speak the truth, unless of course, you are an exceptionally good liar."
Jerome K. Jerome
Federal Reserve loses disclosure appeal
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve has lost an appeal it lodged at the U.S. Second Circuit Court of Appeals that may force the central bank to disclose documents regarding borrowing from its discount window and other emergency lending programs. The loss means that the Fed now only has the U.S. Supreme Court as a venue to appeal. A Fed spokesman said it's reviewing the decision
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/federal-reserve-loses-disclosure-appeal-2010-08-23
Below, why the Greenspan-Bernanke Fed has plenty to hide. Click on the link for an excellent video clip of professional squirming of the finest order.
Incompetent paid shill Frederic Mishkin in his own words
The guy is also a former Fed governor, in case you were wondering what kind of corrupt idiots are running our entire financial system.
Here's his 2005 take on Too Big To Fail: What, Me Worry? Then there's his great housing bottom call in April 2007.
And congratulations to the Columbia Business School for allowing this man to remain a professor.
The interview above is reportedly by filmmaker Charles Ferguson, whose film Inside Job, about the financial collapse, will be released this fall.
http://www.wcvarones.com/2010/08/incompetent-paid-shill-frederic-mishkin.html
Banks are an almost irresistible attraction for that element of our society which seeks unearned money.
J. Edgar Hoover
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished July:
DJIA: +264 Down. NASDAQ: +427 Down. SP500: +275 Down.
The bull market (or bear market rally) that commenced on Nasdaq on 30/4/09 at 1717 has ended. (30/5/09 SP 500 at 919, 30/5/09 DJIA 8500.) While the indicators can flip flop at market turns, this action is rare on the slow monthly indicators. July seems to have confirmed June’s reversal and end of the bull market.
Help the LIR fight Banksterism, the EU, and for sound money.
If you can, help the LIR stay around and make a difference. Please make a donation at the PayPal link on the website or better still become a sponsor for what looks like an exciting 2010. Capitalism not banksterism. Many thanks to all who have helped.
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Sunspots – A 22 year colder world? (From 2004?)
Spotless Days Aug 23
Current Stretch: 4 days
2010 total: 39 days (17%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
Since 2004: 807 days
Typical Solar Min: 485 days
The long minimum seems to have ended or has it? I’m beginning to think our new Dalton Minimum of arriving global cooling, might turn out in fact to be a much longer more severe Maunder Minimum.
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