Baltic Dry Index. 1522 -36 Brent Crude 75.53
Spot Gold 2016 US 2 Year Yield 3.99 +0.01
Coronavirus
Cases 01/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 16/05/23 World 688,379,964
Deaths 6,874,902
If all else fails, immortality
can always be assured by spectacular error.
John Kenneth
Galbraith.
In
the stock casinos, China’s latest economic data disappointed.
But
the big news today will be the outcome of todays talks in Washington on raising
the US debt ceiling before the USA runs out of money to pay its bills and
rollover its massive debts.
With
the US Congress due to start their Memorial Day holiday this Thursday, not to
resume until early June, and President Biden due to fly off to Japan tomorrow
for a G-7 Great Leaders summit, time for debt relief is fast running out.
While
the holiday could be delayed or scrapped entirely, that would take big
concessions by President Biden to get the House Republicans to agree.
With
the House Republicans having President Biden trapped over a barrel of his own
making, it will take big concessions to get them to agree.
While
still unlikely, the chance of a spectacular error rises with each passing day.
Asia markets
trading mixed as investors digest key China’s April activity data
UPDATED MON, MAY 15 2023 11:19 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets are trading mixed as
investors digest key
economic releases from China that missed estimates despite
market expectations of a further rebound growth.
Retail sales jumped 18.4%,
industrial production rose 5.6% and fixed asset investment gained 5.2% – all
below forecasts by economists surveyed by Reuters.
Mainland China markets fell, with
the Shanghai Composite 0.14%
lower and the Shenzhen Component falling
0.4%. Hong Kong’s Hang
Seng index climbed 0.63%.
Japanese stocks rose, with the Nikkei 225 rose
0.68% and the Topix climbed 0.38% and hit its highest level since August 1990.
Semiconductor-related stocks led
gains in the Topix, with Tokyo Electron
Device jumping
by more than 3% and Advantest Corp rising
more than 4%.
South Korea’s Kospi and Kosdaq
also saw gains, advancing 0.28% and 0.1% respectively, while Australia’s S&P/ASX
200 slipped
0.21%.
Overnight in the U.S., all
three major indexes rose as investors looked ahead to negotiations
on the U.S. debt ceiling this Friday.
The S&P 500 added
0.3%, while the Dow
Jones Industrial Average snapped a five-day losing streak and
advanced 0.14%, to 33,348.60. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led
gains in the U.S., rising 0.66%.
Asia markets trading
mixed as investors digest key China's April activity data (cnbc.com)
Biden-McCarthy debt talks to
resume after new default warning
Issued
on: Modified: 0
Washington (AFP) – President Joe Biden and Republican leaders are set
to reconvene Tuesday for crunch talks on raising US borrowing limits, with a
possible debt default now just weeks away.
The Treasury
has warned of "catastrophic" economic consequences if the US runs out
of cash to pay its bills, which would leave it unable to pay federal workers
and trigger a likely surge in interest rates with knock-on effects for
businesses and mortgage holders across the country -- and financial markets
around the world.
Fresh data
reinforces the prospect of default "potentially as early as June 1,"
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned on Monday in a letter to House speaker
Kevin McCarthy.
The two
parties remain sharply divided on the issue, with Republicans insisting Biden
agree to significant spending cuts in exchange for their support to raise the
debt ceiling.
Democrats have
been calling for a "clean" increase of the borrowing limit with no
strings attached, and have accused Republicans of using extreme tactics to push
their political agenda ahead of the so-called "X-date" at which the
US starts defaulting on its debts.
The
nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office forecasts that the X-date could be
reached by June 15.
Little
progress was made in the first round of talks between Biden and congressional
leaders last week, with both sides blaming each other for the stalemate.
A second round
of talks scheduled for Friday was postponed, giving House, Senate and White
House negotiators time to meet over the weekend in a bid to make progress, US
media reported.
On Monday,
McCarthy said Democrats were still not taking the debt talks seriously.
"I still
think we're far apart," he told reporters in the US Capitol, adding
"it doesn't seem to me yet that they want a deal."
----Little time remaining
There are now only three days
remaining when the House and Senate are both in session before June 1, when the
Treasury predicts the US could run out of money.
Some senators have acknowledged
that they may have to cancel the Memorial Day recess beginning Thursday to get
a deal finalized, although there is no official plan to do so.
In recent days, Biden has suggested
he may be forced to postpone a planned trip to Asia this week if the two sides
fail to reach agreement, but has stopped short of canceling his visit while the
talks continue.
As the X-date draws closer,
Democrats in Congress have begun considering a range of alternatives, including
using an arcane congressional procedure to bypass McCarthy.
They've also contemplated asking
Biden to invoke the 14th Amendment to raise the debt ceiling unilaterally,
which some legal scholars believe would allow the Treasury to simply ignore the
debt limit.
But Biden has cautioned that such a
move could be challenged in court, and has instead continued to call on
Republicans to support a clean increase to the debt ceiling.
A US default would likely cause a
recession, which would be "catastrophic," Deputy Treasury Secretary
Wally Adeyemo told CNN over the weekend.
More
Biden-McCarthy
debt talks to resume after new default warning (france24.com)
US
on track for June 1 default without debt ceiling hike, Treasury says
May
15, 2023 11:31 PM GMT+1
WASHINGTON, May 15 (Reuters) - The U.S.
Treasury Department reiterated Monday it expects to be able to pay the U.S.
government's bills only through June 1 without a debt limit increase,
increasing pressure on congressional Republicans and the White House to reach a
deal in coming days.
In her second letter
to Congress in two weeks, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen confirmed that the
agency will be unlikely to meet all U.S. government payment obligations by
early June, triggering the first-ever U.S. default. The debt ceiling could
become binding by June 1, she said.
The new date reflects further data on
revenues and payments received since Yellen's told Congress on May 1 that
Treasury would likely run out of cash to pay government bills in early June, and potentially as early as
June 1. It comes a day before U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to meet
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy for talks, and ahead of an overseas trip for the
President that starts Wednesday.
The actual date
Treasury exhausts extraordinary measures could be a number of days or weeks
later than these estimates, Yellen said in today's letter, a shift from May 1's
letter that warned only of ""a number of weeks later." She said
she will provide an additional update to Congress next week as more information
becomes available.
Biden travels to
Japan on Wednesday for a Group of Seven leaders summit, then to Australia, a
trip that will take about a week. McCarthy said Monday there had been no
progress in marathon talks at the staff level throughout the weekend.
More
US
on track for June 1 default without debt ceiling hike, Treasury says |
Reuters
Finally,
it’s looking less and less likely there will be food price inflation relief
from this year’s northern hemisphere crops.
Farmers Set to Abandon US Wheat Crops at Highest Rate
Since 1917
Fri, May 12, 2023 at
9:42 PM GMT+1
(Bloomberg) -- America’s wheat fields have
become so plagued by drought that farmers are now poised to abandon crops at
the highest rate in more than a century.
Producers are expected to harvest
about 67% of their planted acres, the US Department of Agriculture said Friday.
If realized, that would be the lowest harvest ratio since 1917, the agency said
in a monthly report.
Years of dry conditions on the US
Plains have taken their toll on America’s famed fields of grain. Some wheat
plants this season were so stunted by a lack of moisture that they won’t
produce so-called heads of grain, leaving little reason to harvest them.
Farmers can instead file crop-insurance claims for failed acres, or choose to
plant something else. Next week, an annual tour in the top wheat-growing state
of Kansas will allow analysts to survey fields and make production estimates.
“We’ll see short wheat, thin stands,
some wheat that looks really good and a lot of fields that aren’t going to be
harvested,” Justin Gilpin, chief executive officer of the trade group Kansas
Wheat, said of next week’s crop tour.
The USDA forecast that the high rate
of abandonment will drag US wheat supplies to lower levels than analysts were
expecting. That could keep domestic prices elevated, even with rival producers
such as Canada and Argentina likely to boost output.
Futures of hard red winter wheat, the
variety grown in drought-struck states including Kansas and Oklahoma, surged as
much as 6.9% after the data was released. That’s the biggest intraday gain for
the most-active contract since October.
Meanwhile, corn production in the US
is expected to rise to a record, bringing up global grain supplies and giving
relief to livestock producers hit by rising feed costs.
Corn futures were little changed.
Traders were forced to exit short positions after the “shocker”
wheat-production estimate, Charlie Sernatinger, head of grains at Marex
Capital, said in a note.
Farmers Set to
Abandon US Wheat Crops at Highest Rate Since 1917 (yahoo.com)
Southeast Asia
hit with record-breaking heat and heavy air pollution
Several cities in
Southeast Asia experienced sweltering temperatures over the weekend, with some
areas hitting new all-time highs as global climate change intensifies both heat
waves and air pollution in the region.
The temperature in
Tuong Duong, a city in Vietnam, reached a record high of 111.6 degrees
Fahrenheit (44.2 degrees Celsius) Sunday, according to the Vietnamese National
Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting. Luang Prabang, a city in Laos, saw
a record-high temperature of 110.3 degrees Fahrenheit (43.5 degrees Celsius)
Saturday, according to the Thai Meteorological Department.
Bangkok, the capital
city of Thailand, also experienced a record-high temperature of 105.8 degrees
Fahrenheit (41 degrees Celsius) over the weekend.
Singapore hit 98.6 degrees Fahrenheit (37 degrees
Celsius) Saturday, matching its all-time record, which was recorded 40 years
ago, the National Environment Agency said.
Southeast Asia is one
of the regions most vulnerable to climate change, which has
fueled more frequent and severe heat waves and worsened the region’s air
pollution. The combination of extreme heat and high smog levels in the region
has exacerbated the risk of heat-related illnesses as well as respiratory and
cardiovascular problems.
The scorching temperatures this
year can be linked to a combination of issues, including lower rainfall over
the past winter and El Niño, a
weather pattern that typically brings hotter and drier
conditions to the region.
More
Southeast Asia hit with record-breaking heat, heavy air pollution (cnbc.com)
“Tax increases don’t eliminate deficits they
increase govt. spending.”
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Today,
when socialism and fiat money fail. How long before our G-7 spendthrift
politicians and bent central banksters turn us all into Argentina?
Argentina
plans emergency economic measures to avoid big devaluation
Central
bank to raise interest rates to 97% and step up currency intervention
May 14, 2023
Argentina
will announce on Monday a new round of emergency government measures, including
raising interest rates 600 basis points to 97 per cent, to try to stave off the
country’s worst economic crisis in two decades.
The
Peronist government is desperate to avoid a big devaluation before elections in
October. But the South American country is also running out of foreign exchange
reserves as Argentines abandon the fast-devaluing peso and embrace the US
dollar.
Fuelled
by money-printing to finance a large government deficit, Argentine inflation
hit 109 per cent a year in April, the highest level since 1991. The economy
ministry said the new measures, to be announced Monday, would involve the
central bank stepping up intervention in the foreign exchange market to try to
slow the peso’s fall.
Economy minister Sergio Massa is also trying
to persuade the IMF to bring forward the disbursement of agreed loans and will
travel to China on May 29 to seek greater use of the renminbi in foreign trade.
Last month, Argentina activated a currency swap with China allowing it to pay
just over $1bn of its imports this month in renminbi.
The IMF has already shown leniency towards Argentina over the past year,
allowing it greater leeway on targets to increase reserves and reduce
money-printing in an attempt to keep a $44bn loan programme on track. It is
unlikely to want to bring forward disbursements in the months before a
potentially pivotal election, which the government is likely to lose.
Massa
also plans to allow the importation of food at zero tariff to try to bring down
inflation, a first in a country which is one of the world’s largest grain
exporters. The government will also lower interest rates on a state-run scheme
for Argentines to buy locally made products on credit, part of an effort to
boost national industry.
More
Argentina plans
emergency economic measures to avoid big devaluation | Financial Times (ft.com)
‘Country
of beggars’: Argentines reel as 104% inflation keeps rising
Argentina's
fragile economic situation has been aggravated by a historic drought since last
year, which has hammered soybeans, corn and wheat exports, draining foreign
reserves and hindering the government's ability to fight currency weakness.
Argentines, grappling with one of the highest inflation rates in the world at 104% – and rising – are increasingly having to skimp and save as salaries fall behind prices, stoking anger and frustration at the country’s center-left government.
The South American nation, an important grains exporter and the region’s no. 2 economy, is expected to have seen prices rise 7.5% in April alone, a Reuters poll of analysts shows, with the inflation rate for the year likely to end near 130%.
That has pushed one in four people into poverty in a country that in the early 1900s was among the wealthiest in the world, though it has battled for decades with high inflation, along with cyclical debt and currency crises.
Dwindling central bank reserves are now imperiling the government’s finances.
“They’ve turned us into a country of beggars,” Carlos Andrada, a 60-year-old self-employed worker, told Reuters as he searched for cut-price deals at a vegetable stall at a market in the suburbs of capital city Buenos Aires.
“One despairs because after working all your life, you have to fight just to get a tomato or a bell pepper,” he said.
Argentina’s fragile economic situation has been aggravated by a historic drought since last year, which has hammered soybeans, corn and wheat exports, draining foreign reserves and hindering the government’s ability to fight currency weakness.
“When I came last time (to the market), I paid 300 pesos a kilo for bell peppers – it’s 300 pesos a half kilo now,” said Olivia María Belbruno, 70, a retiree.
“These are the governments we have and we, the citizens, must think because we are the ones who give them our votes.”
The Peronist ruling coalition is battling to bring prices down ahead of August primary elections and a general ballot in October, where high prices and poverty are badly hurting its chances of staying in office as voters feel the pain.
“I’ve stopped going out to eat
once a month, we haven’t been on vacation anywhere for four years, we had to
sell the car because we couldn’t pay insurance, licenses and garage costs,”
said graphic worker Salvador Paterno, 64.
“We use little air conditioning,
heating. Everyone cuts back on these habits to make ends meet – if you even
make it at all.”
First
published on: 12-05-2023 at 19:37 IST
‘Country of beggars’: Argentines reel as 104% inflation keeps rising | World News,The Indian Express
“As government expands, liberty contracts.”
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
A Colossal Failure Around the
World
The safety data are nothing less than
horrifying
Let’s summarize what we now know of the negative efficacy of the COVID-19 vaccines, and why vaccinated people—not the unvaxxed—suffer frequent bouts of COVID-19.
The COVID-19 vaccines—and the new bivalents, of which they are a
part—are alarmingly and irredeemably unsafe, as well as ineffective for the
advertised purposes. It is increasingly recognized by laypeople, physicians,
and scientists throughout the world that the COVID-19 vaccines are neither
safe, nor effective, nor reversible.
In this article, I show
irrefutable proof that the COVID-19 vaccines are irredeemably ineffective. (See
many dozens of my other Substack articles, and my book, “Neither Safe Nor
Effective,” on how dangerous these vaccines are.)
Background
U.S. mortality data at the end of
2020 did not support the allegation of a pandemic, because there was no more of
an outlying peak in excess deaths in 2020 than other peaks throughout the past
two decades, as reported at that time. A series of CDC [Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention] revisions have continually increased the number claimed
dead in 2020. Even now, as of April 24, the CDC shows that 3,383,729 people
died from all causes in the United States in 2020 on one page written in
December 2021, [1] and also claims that
3,390,079 people died from all causes in the United States in 2020 on a
different page.
If even two years after the end of 2020, allegations of the number of
those dead in 2020 continue to increase, at what point will that number be
settled? How is it that by December 2021 an accurate number of deaths in 2020
was not available to the CDC?
In either case, mortality for 2020 (the year of COVID-19 virulence) was
less than for 2021 (the year of the COVID-19 vaccine), which was
3,464,000. [2] The 2020 mortality number remained at about one
percent of the total U.S. population, as in each of the previous three years, in
which there was no pandemic.
More
A Colossal Failure Around the World
(theepochtimes.com)
Judge Orders FDA to Accelerate
Release of COVID-19 Vaccine Trial Data to Just 2 Years
May 13, 2023 Updated: May 14, 2023
A federal judge in Texas ordered the Food and Drug
Administration (FDA) to make public data it relied on to license COVID-19
vaccines at an accelerated rate, requiring all documents to be made public by
mid-2025 rather than, as the FDA wanted, over the course of about 23.5 years.
In a May 9 decision hailed as a win for transparency
by the lawyer representing the plaintiffs (the parents of a child injured by a
COVID-19 vaccine) in a lawsuit (pdf) against the FDA, the agency was ordered to produce the
data on Moderna’s vaccine for adults and Pfizer’s for children about 10 times
faster than the agency wanted.
“Democracy dies behind closed doors,” is how U.S.
District Judge Mark Pittman opened his order (pdf), which requires the FDA to produce the data on
Moderna’s and Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccines at an average rate of at least 180,000
pages per month.
The FDA had argued it would be “impractical” to
release the estimated 4.8 million pages at more than between 1,000 and 16,000
pages per month, which would have taken at least 23.5 years.
Aaron Siri of Siri & Glimstad, who represents the
plaintiffs in the legal action against the FDA, called the decision “another
blow for transparency and accountability” that builds on an earlier court order
targeting Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine data for those aged 16 and older.
The January 2022 order (pdf), also issued by Pittman, forced the FDA to produce all
its data on Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine for those aged 16 and older at a rate of
55,000 pages per month, or much faster than the 75 years the agency had sought.
More
Andrew Bridgen M.P. looks set to be proved right
within two years.
Update
from John
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Graphene Solar Cell
Market Size 2023, Latest Trends, Growth Drivers, Industry Analysis by Top
Companies and Forecast 2030
Published: May 15, 2023 at 4:34 a.m. ET
Graphene Solar Cell Market Size, Share &
Industry Analysis, By Type(Monocrystalline, Polycrystalline, Thin Film), By
Application (Residential, Commercial, Industrial, Utilities) and Regional
Forecast, 2023-2030
May 15, 2023 (The Expresswire) --
Fortune Business Insights provides a basic overview of the industry including
definitions, classifications, and industry chain structure. The Graphene Solar Cell Market 2023-2030 analysis is
provided for the international markets including development trends,
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structures are also analyzed.
This report also states
import/export consumption, supply and demand, price, revenue, and gross
margins. The report focuses on major leading industry players providing
information such as company profiles, specifications, shipments, price,
revenue, and contact information. The Graphene Solar Cell industry development
trends are analyzed.
The recently released Fortune Business Insights™
research on the Graphene Solar Cell Market survey report provides facts and
statistics regarding market structure and size. Global Graphene Solar Cell
Market Industry, 2023-2030 Research report presents an in-depth analysis of the
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forecast, competition landscape and growth Opportunities.
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More
“We should measure welfare's success by how
many people leave welfare, not by how many are added.”
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