Baltic
Dry Index. 1476 -46 Brent Crude 74.83
Spot Gold 1989 US 2 Year Yield 4.06 +0.07
Coronavirus
Cases 01/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 17/05/23 World 688,484,953
Deaths 6,875,475
A system of capitalism presumes sound money, not
fiat money manipulated by a central bank. Capitalism cherishes voluntary
contracts and interest rates that are determined by savings, not credit
creation by a central bank.
Ron Paul.
Scenting victory over an increasingly desperate President Biden, the Republicans held firm in their US debt ceiling “talks” with team Biden yesterday.
In the stock casinos, a growing realisation that team Biden is beat but doesn’t seem to realise it yet.
Without some major spending concessions from team Biden in the next few days, President Biden faces going down in history as the man who broke the USA’s credit record, the US stock casinos, much of the US lesser banking system, and if he stays in denial long enough, probably accelerates the end of the fiat dollar reserve financial system.
Were anything like that to happen in May 2023, the spectacular collapse of Credit Swiss Bank last month will just become an obscure footnote in financial history. The global financial rout of June 2023 onwards will rival the Great Depression of the 1930s.
JPMCs CEO Jamie Dimon and the rest of the Wall Street bankster Mafia need to urgently get on the telephone to an in denial team Biden, and explain just why team Biden has already lost this round of “Russian roulette poker.”
If reality doesn’t sink in to President
Biden’s White House soon, an economic financial catastrophe lies ahead this
summer.
Dow closes more
than 300 points lower on discouraging Home Depot forecast, debt ceiling
concerns: Live updates
UPDATED TUE, MAY 16 2023 5:09 PM EDT
Stocks dipped Tuesday as investors digested a
lackluster forecast from Home Depot. Wall Street also turned its attention to a
meeting between congressional leaders and President Joe Biden on the U.S. debt
ceiling.
The Dow Jones
Industrial Average closed below its
50-day average for the first time since March 30. The 30-stock index dropped
336.46 points, or 1.01%, to 33,012.14. The S&P
500 fell 0.64% to 4,109.90.
The Nasdaq Composite declined
0.18% to 12,343.05.
Dow member Home Depot pulled back by 2.15% after the retailer reported
disappointing quarterly revenue and cut its full-year guidance, as consumers postponed large home improvement projects.
April retail sales came in weaker than expected, rising 0.4% last month. That was lower than the 0.8%
increase anticipated by economists polled by Dow Jones.
“Stocks have really been trading in this 3800 to
4200 range on the S&P 500 since the middle of November, and we’re kind of
stuck there,” said U.S. Bank Wealth Management’s Bill Merz. “I think it’s
reflective of the uncertainty that investors feel around what will happen on
the policy front. How will the economy respond? Will consumers be able to
continue spending through this period, and how long can that last?”
Investors are anxiously awaiting progress on
debt ceiling negotiations. On Monday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reaffirmed that the U.S. faced the possibility of default
as early as June 1, the so-called X
date, if a deal isn’t reached between the White House and Congress. On Tuesday,
she doubled down on her warning to raise the limit immediately.
“A default would crack open the foundations upon
which our financial system is built,” Yellen said Tuesday. “It is very
conceivable that we’d see a number of financial markets break – with worldwide
panic triggering margin calls, runs and fire sales.”
Biden maintained a more optimistic view of the
ongoing negotiations over the weekend, while House Speaker Kevin McCarthy,
R-Calif., said significant obstacles still remain. Biden has so far maintained
that raising the debt ceiling is non-negotiable. McCarthy, however, has pushed
for talks to broker a deal in which raising the debt limit would be tied to
spending cuts.
On Tuesday, the White House said Biden
will cut his upcoming international trip short as he deals with debt ceiling negotiations.
Stock market
today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Asia markets
mixed as investors digest economic data from the region, U.S. debt ceiling
looms
UPDATED WED, MAY 17 2023 12:44 AM
EDT
Asia-Pacific markets are trading mixed as
investors digested economic data from Japan and Australia. Quad leaders also
canceled a planned meeting in Sydney next week as U.S. President Joe Biden cut
his Asia trip short to return to the U.S. for talks on the debt ceiling.
Japan’s Nikkei
225 was up 0.79% – exceeding the
psychological level of 30,000. The Topix was up 0.2%, as Japan stocks surged
to the highest since August 1990.
South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.6%, while the Kosdaq jumped 1.9%. In
Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 slipped
0.45%, with mining stocks leading the losses.
In mainland China, the Shanghai
Composite ticked 0.23% lower and
the Shenzhen Component fell
0.18%. The Hang Seng index in
Hong Kong also fell 0.55%.
Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes dipped as investors turned its attention to a meeting between congressional leaders and President Joe
Biden on the U.S. debt ceiling.
The Dow Jones
Industrial Average closed below its
50-day average for the first time since March 30, falling 1.01%. The S&P
500 fell 0.64%, and the Nasdaq
Composite declined 0.18%.
European stocks
head for lower open as U.S. debt ceiling talks overshadow market sentiment
UPDATED WED, MAY 17 2023 12:36 AM EDT
European markets are heading for a lower open on
Wednesday as investors keep an eye on debt ceiling negotiations stateside.
U.S. stock futures were
modestly higher overnight as investors awaited news of developments in the
negotiations between congressional leaders and President Joe Biden on the U.S.
debt ceiling.
Asia-Pacific
markets were trading mixed against the backdrop of debt ceiling
negotiations. Quad leaders canceled a planned meeting in Sydney next week as
Biden cut his Asia trip short to return to the U.S. for talks on the debt
ceiling.
European markets
live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)
Your
Evening Briefing: Time Running Out for US Debt Ceiling Fight
16 May 2023 at 22:29 BST
The US is another day closer to defaulting on its debt. Despite
clear warnings such an event could throw millions out of work,
trigger a market selloff and raise borrowing costs, the stalemate triggered by
Republicans looking to force concessions from the White House continues with no
end in sight.
In exchange for
paying the nation’s debts, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is demanding President
Joe Biden agree to cuts in future domestic spending. The GOP wants to
slash climate programs and education funding while clawing back $65
billion in Covid-19 funds. Biden says he will cut his G-7 meeting trip
to Asia to try and rectify the impasse. “Time is running out,” warned
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who said that the US would hit its limit June 1.
Here are today’s top stories
US consumers remained
resilient in April, with retail sales rising in
the face of still-high inflation and borrowing costs. The advance in sales
suggests low unemployment and steady wage growth are supporting demand. Markets
remained squarely focused on the debt ceiling talks in Washington and traded
lower for another day. Here’s your markets wrap.
More
Bloomberg Evening
Briefing: Time Running Out for US Debt Ceiling Fight - Bloomberg
UBS flags $17 billion hit from Credit Suisse takeover
May
17, 20232 :45 AM GMT+1
May 16 (Reuters)
- UBS Group AG (UBSG.S) expects
a financial hit of about $17 billion from the takeover of Credit Suisse Group
AG (CSGN.S), the bank said in a presentation early on Wednesday as
it prepares to complete the rescue of its struggling Swiss rival.
UBS estimates a
negative impact of $13 billion from fair value adjustments of the combined
group's assets and liabilities. UBS also sees $4 billion in potential
litigation and regulatory costs stemming from outflows, the bank said.
UBS, however,
also estimated it would book a one-off gain stemming from the so-called
"negative goodwill" of $34.8 billion by buying Credit Suisse for a
fraction of its book value.
The financial
cushion will help absorb potential losses and could result in a boost to the
lender's second-quarter profit if UBS closes the transaction next month as planned.
UBS said the
estimates were preliminary and the numbers could change materially later on.
More
UBS
flags $17 billion hit from Credit Suisse takeover | Reuters
Next, what could go wrong with this?
Oil
rebounds as U.S. begins refilling strategic reserve
May 16, 2023
Investing.com--
Oil prices rose in Asian trade on Tuesday, extending gains from the prior
session as the U.S. government confirmed plans to begin refilling its
heavily-drawn on Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which sent a buy signal to
markets.
The Department of
Energy (DOE) said on Monday that it will purchase up to 3 million barrels of
oil for the SPR, confirming speculation over the move following several media
reports last week.
The move comes
after the Biden administration drew the SPR to its lowest level since 1983 over
the past year in a bid to bring down record-high fuel prices spurred by the
Russia-Ukraine conflict.
While the draw
downs had worked as intended, bringing down U.S. gasoline prices substantially,
it had also drawn ire from oil bulls and Biden’s political opponents.
The DOE also said
that it had secured the cancellation of 140 million barrels in congressionally
mandated sales from the SPR over the next four years.
The move offered
much relief to oil prices, which were battered by fears of slowing economic
growth over the past four weeks.
Oil prices were
also aided by the prospect of tighter supplies, with reports of Canadian
wildfires pointing to potential disruptions in oil flows from North America.
This comes with improving fuel demand thanks to the U.S. summer season.
But on the other
hand, the factors that spurred a four-week losing spree in oil prices still
remained in play. Markets remained on edge as data on Tuesday showed that
Chinese industrial production and retail sales grew at a slower-than-expected
pace in April, pointing to a staggered economic recovery in the world's largest
oil consumer.
More
Oil rebounds as
U.S. begins refilling strategic reserve (msn.com)
Finally today, bananas.
Genetically
modified bananas out to stop Cavendish catastrophe
Bronwyn
Thompson
May 15, 2023
It’s been more than 50 years since the lethal
soil-borne Fusarium fungal species all but wiped out the
dominant Gros Michel banana across the globe. Now, though, the tropical race 4
(TR4) strain of the fungus threatens to repeat history, potentially killing off
the world’s most popular and widespread variety, the Cavendish, and with it a
US$20 billion banana industry.
However, for the past 20 years, scientists at the Queensland
University of Technology (QUT) in Australia have been developing a genetically
modified Cavendish banana plant that isn't impacted by the fungus, also known
as Panama disease. After earlier studies into the disease-resistant gene RGA2,
the researchers spent more than six years growing the modified fruits in field
trials in the Northern Territory. The result has been plants growing Cavendish
bananas as we know them, but ones that are also highly resistant to the TR4
fungus.
They’ve
now submitted their modified Cavendish banana variety, known as QCAV-4, to the
Food Standards Australia New Zealand (FSANZ) for regulatory approval. The
assessors will look at molecular, chemical, compositional and nutritional
aspects of the disease-resistant QCAV-4. The process is expected to take around
nine months, and if successful it will be the country’s first whole genetically
modified fruit and the world’s first GM Cavendish plant.
“The devastating Panama disease TR4 is caused by a soil-borne
fungus that stays in the ground for more than 50 years, wiping out banana crops
and destroying farms for generations,” said James Dale, professor at QUT, also
known as the "banana man" for his commitment
to their genetic science. “It is a huge problem. It has devastated
Cavendish plantations in many parts of the world and could cripple the
Cavendish banana export industry worldwide.”
While
there are around 1,000 varieties of bananas grown across the globe’s tropical
regions, the Cavendish makes up around half of all types cultivated and almost
100% of international trade.
What makes
the variety particularly vulnerable is that it can’t reproduce sexually, which
is nature’s way of maintaining genetic diversity. As such, it’s propagated,
essentially creating identical clones of the plants, greatly limiting
its genetic makeup and making it incredibly susceptible
to widespread devastation from a single pathogenic invader.
More +
video.
Genetically
modified bananas out to stop Cavendish catastrophe (newatlas.com)
The
stock market in Japan was half the world market and where has the Japan economy
gone since the 1990s? Nowhere. They've been struggling for two decades in the
aftermath of a massive bubble that's collapsed. They've tried to work their way
out of it by printing even more money and it hasn't worked. Now, I'm saying
this is what all the central banks are doing. There is no honest interest rate
in the world today.
David Stockman.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Brace
yourselves, travelers: This summer could be ‘one for the record books’
By , CNN Updated
7:29 AM EDT, Mon May 15, 2023
Memorial
Day weekend – the unofficial start of the summer travel season in the United
States – is shaping up to be busy. At airports, it’s likely to be busier than
it was in 2019 pre-pandemic, according to the AAA travel forecast released
Monday.
The
automotive and trip-planning group expects 42.3 million Americans to travel 50
miles or more from home over the holiday weekend. That’s a 7% increase over
2022 or 2.7 million more people. And the group says that’s a sign of what
travelers should expect this summer.
“More
Americans are planning trips and booking them earlier, despite inflation,” said
Paula Twidale, senior vice president of AAA Travel, in a statement. “This
summer travel season could be one for the record books, especially at
airports.”
Air
travel is expected to be up by 11% over last year, with 3.4 million people
expected to fly over the holiday weekend. That figure exceeds 2019 levels by
5.4% – or 170,000 more air travelers.
AAA
says this Memorial Day weekend could be the busiest at airports since 2005.
Last
summer was a trying season for air travelers and the winter holidays were again
plagued with cancellations and delays.
There
are a number of factors – weather, airline operations, air traffic control
staffing – that are out of travelers’ control, AAA spokesperson Aixa Diaz told
CNN’s Pete Muntean.
“That
stuff you can’t control, so you have to be prepared,” Diaz said, but the
potential hassles aren’t keeping travelers from booking.
“AAA’s
best advice is to plan ahead and have those Plan Bs and Plan Cs in effect,
knowing that potentially you could run into delays or cancellations at the
airport.”
The
first flight in the morning is likely to have fewer disruptions than later
flights, Diaz said. Not checking a bag can also help.
Overall,
the weekend is expected to be the third busiest Memorial Day holiday period
since 2000. The overall number of expected travelers is just 1% below 2019
levels.
Most
travelers will be driving to their destinations over the holiday weekend. Road
trips are expected to be up 6% over last year, with more than 37 million
Americans hitting the road.
Gas
prices this year are lower than this time last year, but car travel is still
expected to be down from pre-pandemic levels by about a half million travelers.
On Friday, the national average price for regular gas was $3.542, compared with
$4.418 a year ago.
The
worst time to be on the roads for the holiday weekend? Friday afternoon from 3
p.m. to 6 p.m., Diaz said. Coming back, Monday between noon and 3 p.m. will be
the worst time on the roads.
Memorial Day air
travel is expected to top pre-pandemic numbers | CNN
Column:
Global petroleum stocks normalise after massive SPR drawdown
May
15, 2023 1:59 AM GMT+1
LONDON, May 12 (Reuters) - Global
commercial oil inventories were close to their long-term seasonal average at
the end of the first quarter of 2023 following massive releases from the U.S.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) over the previous 12 months.
In the countries of the Organisation
for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), commercial stocks of crude and
refined products stood at 2,804 million barrels at the end of March (“Short-Term
Energy Outlook”, EIA, May 12).
---- Front-month Brent futures slipped
to around $80 per barrel at the end of March 2023 from $108 at the end of March
2022 and a high of around $130 in May and June 2022, after adjusting for
inflation.
Real prices in March 2023 were in the
40th percentile for all months since 2000, down from the 68th percentile in
March 2022, and similar to March 2019 before the pandemic.
Brent’s six-month calendar spread
slipped to a backwardation of $2.50 per barrel (79th percentile), down from
over $10 (98th percentile) a year earlier.
The spread is correlated with current
stock levels as well as traders’ expectations about the future balance between
production, consumption and inventory changes.
The rise in commercial inventories has
therefore been accompanied by a weakening of the calendar spread and downward
pressure on spot prices.
But downward pressure on prices and
spreads would not have been possible without the massive draw down of the SPR –
which is unlikely to be repeated.
More than one-third of the SPR has been
depleted over the last 12 months and the remaining stock is the lowest for
almost 40 years since November 1983.
For the remainder of 2023 and 2024,
there is little prospect of another similar drawdown in the U.S. strategic
reserve.
Prices and spreads will be much more
directly responsive to the balance between the impact of OPEC⁺ restraint on
production and the global business cycle on consumption.
Column:
Global petroleum stocks normalise after massive SPR drawdown | Reuters
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
People used to fight over getting a COVID-19 vaccine.
Now millions of doses are getting tossed in the trash because no one's using
them.
Mon, May 15, 2023 at 10:49 PM GMT+1
·
The Johnson &
Johnson single-dose COVID-19 vaccine is no longer available in the US.
·
Over two years after
it was first approved, the last batch of doses has been thrown out.
·
Americans once
fought over vaccines, but still, nearly a third of doses produced went unused.
At the height of the COVID-19
pandemic, Americans were clamoring to get vaccinated as soon as they could.
But now, millions of doses of the
Johnson & Johnson vaccine are getting tossed in the trash because no one's
using them.
More than 2 years after Johnson
& Johnson's vaccine was first approved by the FDA, it is now no longer
available anywhere in the US, according to the CDC.
Over 31.5 million doses of the
J&J vaccine have been distributed across the country since March 2021 — 19
million of which made it into Americans' arms, CNN reported.
The 12.5 million remaining doses
— nearly a third of the total produced — expired on May 7, and the CDC has told
all vaccine providers to get rid of them.
Though the J&J vaccine was
the least popular of the three vaccines available in the US, its final demise
is still a stark contrast to the early days of COVID-19 vaccination when rich people were gaming the system to get vaccinated before their turn.
During the height of the
pandemic, young people also showed up at
pharmacies just before
closing time, hoping to snag soon-to-expire shots before they were trashed.
And even for those who followed
the rules, wait times for vaccine appointments at the height of the public
health crisis were often days — or even weeks.
The end of the J&J vaccine
comes less than a week after the US Department of Health and Human
Services officially ended
the COVID-19 public health emergency as the Biden administration winds down its
COVID-19 response. The World Health Organization recently said that COVID-19 is
now a disease we'll need to learn to live with — though it warned that there's
still a risk of a relapse with a new variant if countries slack off their
preventative measures.
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Today, what the save the planet
eco-loons won’t tell you. EVs will destroy the planet not save it.
ANALYSIS: Toxicity of
Lithium-Ion Batteries at Odds With Push for Electric Vehicles
May 15, 2023 Updated: May 15, 2023
Government leaders are pushing for the widespread
adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), but there are concerns about the vast
amounts of mineral mining necessary for battery production and the ensuing
waste management issues taking a toll on the environment.
Lithium, the primary component of an EV battery, can
be highly environmentally polluting in its extraction and discarding phases.
A major issue with lithium mining is the quantity of
water required. Mining just 1 ton of lithium can use up to 2.2 million gallons
of water, according to AZO Cleantech. This results in the depletion of water
sources close to mining regions and drying out of land, posing a threat to not
only the environment of the region but also communities living in the vicinity.
Lithium batteries use various elements like nickel,
copper, and lead, which can all be toxic.
The open-pit mining method of extracting minerals
required for batteries involves clearing out vegetation and digging a deep pit,
creating the circumstances for erosion, according to UL Research Institutes.
According to a January 2023 study by the Climate and Community Project, if America’s current EV
demand is projected to 2050, the U.S. market would need three times the current
world supply of lithium to meet the demand. This requires a massive expansion
of mining activities that can bring about enormous changes to landscapes and
living conditions.
The Real Carbon Footprint
A 2019 study by Circular Energy Storage (pdf) calculated that production of an NCM111 lithium
battery results in 73 kilograms of carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions per
kilowatt-hour (kWh). NCM111 batteries contain one-third nickel, one-third
cobalt, and one-third manganese in the cathode.
This means a considerable carbon footprint is
generated by an electric vehicle before it hits the road compared to cars with
an internal combustion engine.
Over 50 percent of the world’s lithium resources are
said to be lying beneath salt flats in the Andean regions of Chile, Bolivia,
and Argentina, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
Lithium mining and other mining activities have
consumed 65 percent of the water in Salar de Atacama, the largest salt flat in
Chile. This has depleted groundwater and contaminated the soil.
In Tibet, lithium mining from Chinese operations has
reportedly leaked chemicals like hydrochloric acid into the Liqi River, which
ended up killing livestock and poisoning the fish, according to the Harvard
International Review.
More
ANALYSIS: Toxicity
of Lithium-Ion Batteries at Odds With Push for Electric Vehicles
(theepochtimes.com)
When you own gold you're fighting every central bank
in the world. That's because gold is a currency that competes with government
currencies and has a powerful influence on interest rates and the price of
government bonds. And that's why central banks long have tried to suppress the
price of gold. Gold is the ticket out of the central banking system, the escape
from coercive central bank and government power.
James Rickards.
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