Baltic Dry Index. 1384 -18 Brent Crude 75.01
Spot Gold 1976 US 2 Year Yield 4.28 +0.04
Coronavirus
Cases 01/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 22/05/23 World 688,989,562
Deaths 6,880,332
Victoria Day Canada (and a few parts of eastern Scotland.)
A happy, enjoyable and safe Victoria Day to all celebrating today’s holiday, though it’s only a bank holiday in Canada I believe.
Though Uncle Sam hasn’t yet defaulted on his debts and hopefully won’t, the debt ceiling scare has already done damage to the prestige of the USA and the dollar reserve standard.
Why sell oil, arguably the worlds most important commodity after grains, only for ever more dodgy US fiat dollars, when Euros, Yuan, Yen and Roubles are also viable and useful, and carry only a little more risk than increasingly dodgy fiat US dollars?
The big news this week will be what sort of compromise, face saving deal team Biden will manage to reach with the Republicans in Washington, who have already passed in the House their version of debt ceiling relief.
While a no deal this week will certainly
rattle the stock casinos and worry the global economy, no deal doesn’t mean
that the USA will start defaulting on June one as implied by US Treasury
Secretary Yellen.
But that will reduce the amount of money and money equivalents circulating in the US economy, plus reduce the velocity of money in the US economy, with spill over effects on the Canadian and Mexican economies.
If that only lasted a day or two the effect
would be minimal. A month or two calamitous.
Biden, McCarthy
to meet Monday for debt ceiling negotiations; Yellen warns of 'hard deadline'
MAY 21, 2023 / 3:20 PM
May 21 (UPI) -- President Joe Biden will resume negotiations on the debt ceiling
with House Speaker Kevin
McCarthy as the June default
deadline nears.
McCarthy said he spoke with the president Sunday to
schedule the meeting. Biden is returning to the United States after a trip to
the G7 summit in Hiroshima, Japan.
"Just
got off the phone with the president while he's out of the country,"
McCarthy tweeted. "My position has not changed. Washington cannot continue
to spend money we do not have at the expense of children and grandchildren.
Tomorrow, he and I will meet in person to continue negotiations."
Negotiations
stalled last week as Republicans remain committed to vast budget cuts while
Biden and Democrats seek a resolution without strings attached. Biden had
previously stated that raising the
debt ceiling was "not negotiable."
---- Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Janet
Yellen reaffirmed that June
is a "hard deadline" for the government to raise the debt ceiling and
avoid default.
During an appearance
on Meet The Press, Yellen said the likelihood of the United States
being able to pay all of its bills through June 15 is unlikely without a
resolution.
"I
indicated in my last letter to Congress that we expect to be unable to pay all
of our bills in early June and possibly as soon as June 1. And I will continue
to update Congress, but I certainly haven't changed my assessment," Yellen
said. "So I think that that's a hard deadline."
More
In the stock casinos this morning, cautious
optimism that success will be snatched from the jaws of disaster, plus incredulity
that this is happening at all.
European markets head for cautious open as U.S.
debt ceiling talks are set to resume
UPDATED MON, MAY 22 2023 12:41 AM
EDT
European markets are heading for a mixed open
Monday, with investors keeping an eye on tense debt ceiling talks in the United
States.
Federal leaders are expected to
continue with negotiations on
the U.S. debt ceiling on Monday as the country approaches a potential default,
with President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy scheduled to meet at
the White House.
On Sunday, U.S. Treasury
Secretary Janet Yellen said
“hard choices” will need to be made about which bills will go unpaid if the
debt ceiling is not raised and reaffirmed her warning that the United States
could default on its debt as early
as June 1.
Asia-Pacific markets mostly
rose overnight as stocks in Tokyo extended a rally, while U.S.
stock futures retreated slightly on Sunday evening.
European
markets live updates: stocks, news, U.S. debt ceiling talks (cnbc.com)
Stock futures fall slightly as Wall Street
focuses on tense debt ceiling negotiations
UPDATED SUN, MAY 21 2023 7:06 PM EDT
Stock
futures retreated slightly on Sunday evening as traders monitored the negotiations
over the U.S. debt ceiling.
Futures for the Dow Jones
Industrial Average ticked down 48 points, or about 0.1%. S&P 500 futures
dipped about 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures also shed 0.1%.
Stocks rose last week despite the
uncertainty in Washington. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 3.04%, while the
S&P 500 gained 1.65%. The Dow added 0.38%.
President Joe Biden and House
Speaker Kevin McCarthy,
R-Calif., are set to meet Monday to continue
negotiations. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has
said the U.S. could default on its debt as early as June 1.
The market has continued to grind
higher, led by tech stocks, even in the face of a potential debt default and
stubborn inflation. Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian on Sunday
hiked her year-end
target for the S&P 500 to 4,300 from 4,000, saying that the
focus of companies on efficiency would make earnings more stable and that
stocks were not overvalued.
“Current valuations are not low,
but rarely are low during profits recessions. On cyclically adjusted earnings,
valuations argue for price returns of 5% per year for the S&P 500 over the
next decade,” Subramanian said in a note to clients.
The first-quarter earnings season
is winding down, but there are a few notable reports in the coming days, with Zoom Video on
Monday and Lowe’s and Dick’s Sporting Goods on
Tuesday.
The upcoming week has a
relatively light slate of economic data, highlighted by a second reading for
first-quarter GDP on Thursday and the personal consumption expenditures
inflation gauge on Friday. The release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes
on Wednesday could also shed light on how central bankers are thinking about
the possibility of further rate hikes.
Traders will also be keeping an
eye on JPMorgan Chase’s investor day on Monday.
Stock
futures fall slightly as Wall Street focuses on tense debt ceiling negotiations
(cnbc.com)
How Wall Street is preparing for possible US
debt default
May
22, 2023 5:54 AM GMT+1
NEW YORK/WASHINGTON, May 22 (Reuters) -
As talks over raising the U.S. government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling go down
to the wire, Wall Street banks and asset managers
have been preparing for the fallout from a potential default.
The financial
industry has prepared for such a crisis before, most recently in September
2021. But this time, the relatively short time frame
for reaching a compromise has bankers on edge, said one senior industry
official.
Less than two weeks remain until June
1, when the Treasury Department has warned that
the federal government might not be able to pay all its debts, a deadline U.S.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reaffirmed on Sunday.
Citigroup (C.N) CEO
Jane Fraser said this debate on the debt ceiling is
"more worrying" than previous ones. JPMorgan Chase & CO (JPM.N) CEO Jamie Dimon said the bank is convening weekly meetings on
the implications.
WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF THE U.S.
DEFAULTED?
U.S. government
bonds underpin the global financial system so it is difficult to fully gauge
the damage a default would create, but executives expect massive volatility
across equity, debt and other markets.
The ability to trade in and out of
Treasury positions in the secondary market would be severely impaired.
Wall Street
executives who have advised the Treasury's debt operations have warned that Treasury market
dysfunction would quickly spread to the derivative, mortgage and commodity markets,
as investors would question the validity of Treasuries widely used as
collateral for securing trades and loans. Financial institutions could ask
counterparties to replace the bonds affected by missed payments, said analysts.
Even a short breach
of the debt limit could lead to a spike in interest rates, a plunge in equity
prices, and covenant breaches in loan documentation and leverage agreements.
Short-term funding
markets would likely freeze up as well, Moody's Analytics said.
Banks, brokers
and trading platforms are prepping for disruption to the Treasury market, as
well as broader volatility.
More
How
Wall Street is preparing for possible US debt default | Reuters
Nothing is so admirable in
politics as a short memory.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Professor Boyle on the rising US commercial real estate problem. Approx. 14 minutes.
Commercial
Real Estate Meltdown?
Commercial
Real Estate Meltdown? - YouTube
Covid-19
Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Strange and stranger but no
one anywhere is investigating the continuing rise in excess deaths. Why?
Probably because any investigation
would turn up the wrong sort of data for big pharma. Was there a reason big
pharma knew that they needed indemnity from vaccine harm lawsuits? Approx. 14 minutes.
Excess
deaths in Canada
Excess
deaths in Canada - YouTube
Supreme
Court Justice Neil Gorsuch blasts U.S. response to COVID-19
MAY 20, 2023 / 7:41 PM
May 20 (UPI) -- U.S. Supreme
Court Justice Neil
Gorsuch has issued a rare
official statement, blasting the response of the United States to the COVID-19 pandemic as one of the "greatest
intrusions on civil liberties."
Gorsuch,
55, issued the
statement after the high
court on Thursday rejected an appeal from Republican-led states seeking to
maintain the Title 42 public health order, which was imposed by the
administration of former President Donald
Trump that allowed quick
expulsion of migrants at the border.
The Supreme Court, in its one-sentence
decision, had simply instructed an appeals court to dismiss the motion by the
Republican-led states as "moot" likely because the health emergency
used to justify Title 42 expired earlier this month. The administration of
President Joe Biden has previously pushed to end Title
42.
More
Supreme Court
Justice Neil Gorsuch blasts U.S. response to COVID-19 - UPI.com
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Today, more on so you really, really,
really want an electric vehicle (EV.)
EXCLUSIVE: Blind
charity slams electric car owners who dangle charging cables across the
pavement and force pedestrians to dice with death by walking in the road
May 20, 2023
Electric vehicle car charging cables hanging out of windows and draped
over pavements have been slammed by leading charities as 'ludicrous' and
'unsafe'.
The National Federation of the Blind UK, Living Streets and Guide Dogs
urged local authorities and electric car companies to improve charging
infrastructure which currently poses a 'risk' to pedestrians.
It comes after images of poorly maintained charging cables hanging out
of windows and trailing across pavements across the UK have provoked backlash
on social media.
In one photo, an orange cable can be seen hanging out the window of a
house in Wandsworth, London, trailing down to a lamppost and wrapped around a
20mph sign.
And in another, an orange charging cable can be seen running over a
permit holders only sign in Wandsworth, London.
The NFBUK,
which campaigns for the blind and partially sighted, said it was 'totally
unsafe' and 'ludicrous' for homeowners to run cables from their houses to
charge their cars.
A spokesman
said: 'With the growth in electric vehicle ownership it is essential the
infrastructure for charging them keeps up with the sales.
'Expecting
people to charge them with cables coming from out their houses crossing
pavements is absolutely ludicrous and is unsafe.
'They can
become trip hazards and the cables should not be allowed to cross the
pavements.'
'It is totally
unsafe for homeowners to run cables from their houses to charge their cars.
'It's
imperative the charging for electric vehicles is undertaken on the road with no
cables being present on any part of the pavement.
The spokesman
added: 'Pavements are for people to use to get to A to B on foot or by using
mobility device, not for EV charging cables.
'The local
authorities along with the EV companies should be working together to ensure
off pavement charging facilities are designed that do not impact the safety and
accessibility of the pavement for blind, visually impaired, disabled and older
pedestrians.
'This will
ensure those people purchasing such vehicles will be able to do so with our
impacting other people's safety and accessibility.'
There are
37,055 public electric vehicle charging devices in the UK, according to recent
figures.
And the number
of devices has increased by 31 per cent over the last year, with 8,680
installations across the UK.
More, plus pictures.
If all else fails, immortality
can always be assured by spectacular error.
John Kenneth
Galbraith.
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