Baltic Dry Index. 1401 +36 Brent Crude 60.32
The whole history of civilization is strewn with creeds and institutions which were invaluable at first, and deadly afterwards.Walter Bagehot.
With US stock indexes
again testing the February through May support, will the Fed kowtow to
President Trump this final full week of trading, and postpone their final
interest rate hike of the year? If they
do, will it be enough to trigger the Santa Claus rally? But will any Santa
Claus rally be anything more than an exit rally?
My guess is that the
Fed will still hike this week if only to preserve an impression of independence
from the president and his team, tossing in a sop to the idea that they may
soften their stance on interest rate rises next year, if the global slowdown
looks like extending into the US economy.
That should be enough
to trigger a modest Santa Claus exit rally, to try to dress up the year-end
numbers, in what has become a horror show final quarter for stocks. But I think
any rally will be short lived and stocks will crash through that support early
next year. 2019 is shaping up to be an ugly year in US politics, US trade wars,
and US stocks. It looks dire too for Italy, Deutsche Dank and the Brexit
rump-EUSSR.
Asian shares inch higher ahead of meetings by Fed, China’s economic policymakers
Asian markets rose Monday on hopes that the Federal Reserve would re-evaluate its hawkish stance at a meeting later this week, following signs of slower global growth.Japan’s Nikkei 225 index NIK, +0.76% added 0.6% and the Kospi SEU, +0.22% in South Korea gained 0.1%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng HSI, +0.03% was up 0.1% while Australia’s S&P ASX 200 XJO, +1.01% was 0.9% higher. Shares were higher in Taiwan Y9999, +0.15% and Singapore STI, +1.38% but fell in Indonesia JAKIDX, -0.13% .
The Shanghai Composite index SHCOMP, +0.01% rose 0.1% while the smaller-cap Shenzhen Composite 399106, -0.45% fell 0.4% ahead of this week’s China’s Central Economic Work Conference, where policymakers are expected to maintain a proactive fiscal policy and commitment to supply-side reforms.
-----On Friday, weak economic data from China and Europe fueled worries about the global economy, dragging shares to eight-month lows. Sentiment was also dampened by the mess surrounding Britain’s impending departure from the European Union. The S&P 500 index SPX, -1.91% gave up 1.9%t to 2,599.95, its lowest close since April 2. The Dow DJIA, -2.02% slipped 2% and the Nasdaq composite COMP, -2.26% was 2.3% lower. All major U.S. indexes have fallen more than 10 percent from their record highs, reaching a mark known on Wall Street as a “correction.” Markets are awaiting the elusive “Santa Claus rally,” which usually makes December the best month of the year for stocks.
The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to raise its short-term interest rate — a benchmark for many consumer and business loans — by a modest quarter-point to a range of 2.25% to 2.5% after a meeting on Wednesday. This would be its ninth hike since late 2015. Markets will be watching any policy statement changes and a news conference by Chairman Jerome Powell. The central bank forecasts three more rate hikes in 2019, but softer global growth could cause a shift in its hawkish stance. Last week, China announced that its industrial output and retail sales had slowed in November.
“The ‘Santa rally’ which had been hoped for has proven to be frustratingly elusive, and now markets are quite happy, if not desperate, for at least a dovish line to be thrown by the FOMC,” Vishnu Varathan of Mizuho Bank said in a market commentary. Markets are “grasping straws led by hopes that there will be a material dial back of hawkish bias,” he added.
“The upcoming FOMC meeting and China’s policy-setting meeting, has been
the most actively discussed topics around the markets this morning,” said
Stephen Innes, head of Asia-Pacific trading at Oanda, in a note to clients
Monday. “And both events have a smoothing effect on risk sentiment.”
“We should expect a raft of stimulus measures from China policymakers in
an attempt to stabilize the domestic economy,” Innes added. “On the Fed front,
the market is banking on a dovish hike which should be kind enough to stabilize
equity risk sentiment into year end.”
More
This is the most volatile year on record, and one strategist sees wild moves sticking around
The market is ending a wild 2018 with an even wilder December.The S&P 500 has averaged a daily range of 2 percent for the month, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has closed with triple-digit moves in all but three sessions.
Big moves have pushed the VIX to a record 13 one-day moves of more than 20 percent this year.
The options market is warning that these wild swings could stick around, says Mandy Xu, director of equity derivatives strategy at Credit Suisse.
"The biggest move in the options space actually is not in the VIX, which everyone looks at, but in longer-dated options this time around, compared to, say, October," Xu said on CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Thursday.
While the VIX measures one-month implied volatility, the longer-dated options track implied volatility over longer multi-month stretches.
"The implication is actually quite important," said Xu. "What the market is telling you is that unlike in October — where the VIX went up, but markets were saying we should see a quick normalization in volatility, volatility should normalize two, three, six months out — right now the market is saying that actually volatility is likely to stay elevated in this current range for the next few months."
Xu says the change in implied volatility reflects the shifting risks
that investors expect in the New Year.
"In October, I would say the risk back then, the risk that everyone
was focused on, was very much earnings," said Xu. "This time around I
think the risks that investors are focused on are not something that's going to
be resolved in a month or two."
Worries over economic growth, uncertainty over how aggressive the
Federal Reserve could be in hiking rates next year, and little progress in
trade talks with China have muddied the market outlook, says Xu. Volatility
should linger as those issues continue to pull the market in different
directions.
Next, yet more signs of a
global slowdown. Was 2018 as good as it gets? How long before the rump-EU
buckles under Brexit? Has Trump’s trade wars already gone on too long and too
far?
Singapore's exports fell sharply in November
By Gaurav
Raghuvanshi Published: Dec 16, 2018
11:38 p.m. ET
SINGAPORE--Singapore's key non-oil exports fell unexpectedly in November
due to a high base of comparison from the previous year and amid a sharp
deceleration in the highly volatile pharmaceutical segment.
Exports of goods made in Singapore fell 2.6% in November compared with a
year earlier, after a 8.2% rise in October, trade promotion agency Enterprise
Singapore said Monday.
The median estimate of five economists in a poll by The Wall Street
Journal was for November exports to expand 1.0% from a year earlier.
Compared with the previous month, exports fell 4.2% in seasonally
adjusted terms, after expanding 4.2% on month in October. Economists in the
poll had projected a median 0.5% on month expansion in November.
Electronics exports, which now make roughly a quarter of the total, rose
4.5% on year, reversing a 3.6% decline in October. However, non-electronics
shipments fell 5.2%, compared with a 12.7% rise in the previous month.
----The
city-state's shipments to China and the European Union, its biggest export
destinations, declined in November, though exports to the U.S. remained strong.
In other news, it’s a very tetchy end to 2018. Bah
humbug! I wonder if Russia makes and exports armoured vehicles?
Canada is looking for a way out of big Saudi arms deal, says PM
December 16, 2018 / 11:11 PM
OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, speaking in
an interview that aired on Sunday, said for the first time that his Liberal
government was looking for a way out of a multibillion-dollar arms deal with
Saudi Arabia.
The comments represented a notable hardening in tone from Trudeau, who
previously said there would be huge penalties for scrapping the $13 billion
agreement for armoured vehicles made by the Canadian unit of General Dynamics
Corp.
Last month, Trudeau said Canada could freeze the relevant export permits
if it concluded the weapons had been misused.
“We are engaged with the export permits to try and see if there is a way
of no longer exporting these vehicles to Saudi Arabia,” Trudeau told CTV. He
did not give further details.
Political opponents, citing the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi
and Saudi Arabia’s involvement in the Yemen war, insist Trudeau should end the
General Dynamics deal, which was negotiated by the previous Conservative
government.
Relations between Ottawa and Riyadh have been tense since a diplomatic
dispute over human rights earlier this year. Ottawa says it has been consulting
allies on what steps to take after Khashoggi was killed inside the Saudi
consulate in Istanbul.
“The murder of a journalist is absolutely unacceptable and that’s why
Canada from the very beginning had been demanding answers and solutions on
that,” said Trudeau.
Saudi Arabia rejects U.S. Senate position on Khashoggi - statement
December 16, 2018 / 11:16 PM
CAIRO (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia early on
Monday rejected “the position expressed recently by the United States Senate”,
saying that the Jamal Khashoggi murder is a crime that does not reflect the
policy of the kingdom, a statement by Saudi’s foreign ministry said.
“The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia rejects the
position expressed recently by the United States Senate, which was based upon
unsubstantiated claims and allegations, and contained blatant interferences in
the Kingdom’s internal affairs, undermining the Kingdom’s regional and international
role”, the statement carried by Saudi Press Agency said.
“The Kingdom has previously asserted that the murder of Saudi citizen
Jamal Khashoggi is a deplorable crime that does not reflect the Kingdom’s
policy nor its institutions and reaffirms its rejection of any attempts to take
the case out of the path of justice in the Kingdom.”
The U.S. Senate delivered a rare double rebuke to President Donald Trump
on Saudi Arabia last week, voting to end U.S. military support for the war in
Yemen and blame the Saudi crown prince for the murder of journalist Khashoggi.
The statement also added “the Kingdom hopes that it is not drawn into
domestic political debates in the United States of America, to avoid any
ramifications on the ties between the two countries that could have significant
negative impacts on this important strategic relationship.”
Israel signals displeasure at Australia's 'mistaken' West Jerusalem move
December 16, 2018 / 11:34 AM
JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Israel signalled
displeasure on Sunday with Australia’s recognition of West Jerusalem as its
capital, with a confidant of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying it was a
mistake to gainsay Israeli control over the whole city.
The premier, for his part, stayed silent
on Canberra’s move at a weekly Israeli cabinet meeting that is usually his
opportunity to hold forth in public on major diplomatic developments.
Israel captured Arab East Jerusalem in a
1967 war and annexed it as its capital in a moved not recognised
internationally. Palestinians want East Jerusalem as capital of the state they
hope to found in the occupied West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
A year ago, U.S. President Donald Trump
outraged Palestinians by recognising Jerusalem as the Israeli capital, a
designation that did not acknowledge their claim on the east of the city though
it left open the question of its final borders.
On Saturday, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said Canberra
formally recognises West Jerusalem as Israel’s capital but reaffirmed his
country’s support for a Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem under a two-state
peace deal.
Israel’s Foreign Ministry responded tepidly, calling the Australian move
“a step in the right direction”. At the cabinet meeting on Sunday, Netanyahu
declined to elaborate.
More
Set in Camelot, Arthur and Guinevere have a daughter. At the Blessing of Princess Aurora, Jerome Powell arrives and sets an evil curse on the child, forcing the child into paying off the exploding national debt. Lurking darkly in the wings, President Trump promised to double it.
With apologies to Richard Gauntlett author of pantomime scripts.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Not the usual suspects today.
Today the American War Party in the dock. Syria sorted, (largely by Russia.)
That just leaves the AWP’s other murderous messes to sort out in Yemen, the Ukraine and
Afghanistan.
'Covert
action should not be confused with missionary work.'
Henry Kissinger
Damascus prepares for Christmas without mortar fire
December 16, 2018 / 8:34 AM
DAMASCUS (Reuters) - Christmas decorations are going up for the first
time in years in a Damascus neighbourhood that was a frontline in Syria’s war
until government forces wiped out the last rebel enclaves in the capital
earlier this year.
“Christmas preparations this year are more than excellent. There are no
mortars anymore,” said Hanna al-Saad, a shop owner in the Qasaa district that
was often shelled from the adjacent area of Jobar.
Abbasiyeen Square, where mortars regularly fell, and nearby parts of the
city are being decked out with lighting and Christmas trees, while musicians
with a local scout troop are preparing for a Christmas march not seen for
years.
“We are so happy. The children can now come again to the church without
worrying for their safety, and their parents feel more reassured,” said Aline
Droubi, a musician with the scout troop that practices at a church in
Abbasiyeen.
The eastern edge of Damascus bore the brunt of insurgent shelling until
government forces recovered control of the Ghouta region in a Russian-backed
offensive that the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says killed 1,600
civilians.
Over the course of the Syrian war, insurgent shelling killed some 2,000
people in Damascus, according to a Facebook group that recorded the attacks.
Following the recovery of eastern Ghouta in April, government forces
moved on to take back the Yarmouk area south of the capital, bringing all
Damascus back under state control.
“Last year we didn’t dare to walk in the streets a lot,” said Abir
Ismail, a resident of al-Qasaa neighbourhood, adjacent to Jobar town that was
controlled by an armed faction.
“We had no electricity and there were no lights or decorations,” she
added, expressing excitement at the sight of the decorated streets and houses
this year.
Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it.
Mark Twain.
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as
they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
For a longer battery life: Pushing lithium ion batteries to the next performance level
Chemists develop new anode material
Date:
December 13, 2018
Source:
University of Vienna
Summary:
Conventional lithium ion batteries have reached performance limits. Scientists
have now developed a new nanostructured anode material for lithium ion
batteries, which extends the capacity and cycle life of the batteries. Based on
a mesoporous mixed metal oxide in combination with graphene, the material could
provide a new approach how to make better use of batteries in large devices
such as electric or hybrid vehicles.
Conventional lithium ion batteries, such as those widely used in
smartphones and notebooks, have reached performance limits. Materials chemist
Freddy Kleitz from the Faculty of Chemistry of the University of Vienna and
international scientists have developed a new nanostructured anode material for
lithium ion batteries, which extends the capacity and cycle life of the
batteries. Based on a mesoporous mixed metal oxide in combination with
graphene, the material could provide a new approach how to make better use of
batteries in large devices such as electric or hybrid vehicles. The study has
now been published as cover story of the current issue of Advanced Energy
Materials.
High energy density, extended cycle life and no memory effect: Lithium ion batteries are the most widespread energy storage devices for mobile devices as well as bearers of hope for electro mobility. Researchers are looking for new types of active electrode material in order to push the batteries at the next level of high performance and durability, and to make them better usable for large devices.
"Nanostructured lithium ion battery materials could provide a good solution," says Freddy Kleitz from the Department of Inorganic Chemistry -- Functional Materials of the University of Vienna, who together with Claudio Gerbaldi, leader of the Group for Applied Materials and Electrochemistry at the Politecnico di Torino, Italy, is the study's main author.
The 2D/3D nanocomposite based on a mixed metal oxide and graphene, developed by the two scientists and their teams, seriously enhances the electrochemical performance of lithium ion batteries. "In our test runs, the new electrode material provided significantly improved specific capacity with unprecedented reversible cycling stability over 3,000 reversible charge and discharge cycles even at very high current regimes up to 1,280 milliamperes," says Department Head Freddy Kleitz. Today's lithium ion batteries lose their performance after about 1,000 charging cycles.
New recipe
Conventional anodes often exist of carbon material such as graphite. "Metal oxides have a better battery capacity than graphite, but they are quite instable and less conductive," explains Kleitz. The researchers found a way to make best use of the positive features of both compounds. They developed a new family of electrode active materials, based on a mixed metal oxide and the highly conductive and stabilizing graphene, showing superior characteristics compared to those of most transition metal oxide nanostructures and composites.
As a first step, based on a newly designed cooking procedure, the researchers were able to mix copper and nickel homogenously and under controlled manner to achieve the mixed metal. Based on nanocasting -- a method to produce mesoporous materials -- they created structured nanoporous mixed metal oxide particles, which due to their extensive network of pores have a very high active reaction area for the exchange with lithium ion from the battery's electrolyte. The scientists then applied a spray drying procedure to wrap the mixed metal oxide particles tightly with thin graphene layers.
Simple and efficient design
The use of lithium ion batteries for e-mobility is considered problematic from an environmental point of view, e.g. due to their raw material-intensive production. Small batteries that can store as much energy as possible, last as long as possible and are not too cost-intensive to manufacture could advance their use in large-scale devices. "Compared to existing approaches, our innovative engineering strategy for the new high-performing and long-lasting anode material is simple and efficient. It is a water-based process and therefore environmentally friendly and ready to be applied to industrial level," the study authors conclude.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/12/181213101305.htm?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+sciencedaily%2Fmatter_energy%2Fgraphene+%28Graphene+News+--+ScienceDaily%29
Once again, another year draws to a close and it’s time for my annual appeal. If you are one of the regular LIR readers of this usually six days a week update, that helps support my efforts with the occasional donation via the Paypal button, once again I sincerely thank you. A special thanks this year to the very kind reader that so generously helped me with my vet bills for the operation on my late border collie Rosie. After 12 years, Christmas won’t be the same without Rosie.
If you are a regular reader who finds the LIR
informative, interesting, occasionally amusing or entertaining, please consider
making a small donation via the Paypal button on the right of the LIR website.
For obvious reasons in our new age of mainstream media fake news, I want to
keep the LIR advertising free. But in any event thank you for reading and
sending along helpful articles and suggestions.
Christmas
is coming and the geese are getting fat, Please put a trillion in the
banksters’ hat. If you haven’t got a trillion a billion will do, If you haven’t
got a billion, God damn you!
Ebenezer
Squid
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished November.
DJIA: 25,538 +157 Down. NASDAQ:
7,331 +205 Down. SP500: 2,760 +129 Down.
All three slow indicators are
signalling more correction to come, although not necessarily ahead of the
year-end. However, if a tidal wave of stock fund redemptions hits in December,
2018 could end in a great rising wave of panic selling into a generally thin
markets trading year-end.
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