Tuesday 18 December 2018

Fed Day 1. 1973-1974. God’s Work.


Baltic Dry Index. 1406 +05   Brent Crude 58.62

This great Nation will endure as it has endured, will revive and will prosper. So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself—nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.

FDR 1932.
GB Brexit 2018.

It is Fed day one, will the correction in stock prices be enough to scare the Fed into doing what President Trump has demanded, a halt to further interest rate increases? Even if they kowtow to President Trump, will it make much of a difference to falling stocks?

With so few trading days left in the year and a major correction in stocks underway, is a great tidal wave of year-end stock hedge and mutual fund redemptions already the dominant force in play?

With industrial scale stock wealth destruction in play, plus a trade war that’s distorting and acting as a drag on global trade, is this Christmas retail trading season heading for a bust? For how many department stores on both sides of the Atlantic is this their final Christmas?

Technically, the Dow and SP blew through their February to May support yesterday, though in the age of high frequency trading algos front running the market, I’m not sure that technical trading counts for much anymore. The algo thieves are only there on the upside, they’re largely missing from the market in corrections.  

Below a correction that’s on the cusp of becoming something far more serious. With the Democrats going for President Trump’s scalp starting next month as they did with President Nixon, are we about to repeat 1973-1974 starting next year? We may be witnessing history repeating or about to repeat. Trouble is this time round we have Himalaya’s of unrepayable Great Nixonian Error of fiat money debt. This might be the last chance to start scaling into a little gold and silver.


Edit. The S&P 1973 annual return -17.73%.  1974 -29.72%. Fun times, not. 

I am not a crook.

President Richard M. Nixon.

Asia stocks slide as global growth worries deepen

December 18, 2018 / 12:40 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian share markets slumped on Tuesday as heightened concerns about a slowing global economy sent Wall Street stocks skidding to their lowest levels in more than a year.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan shed 0.3 percent in mid-morning trade while Japan’s Nikkei tumbled 1.2 percent by the midday break.

Chinese shares opened in negative territory with the blue-chip index down 0.3 percent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index flat, while Australian shares fell 0.8 percent. 

MSCI’s broadest gauge of the world’s stock markets, ACWI, was down 0.05 percent on Tuesday, after having hit its weakest level since May 2017 the previous day. It has declined 16 percent from a top hit on Jan. 29.

---- On Monday, the S&P 500 lost 2.08 percent to hit its lowest since October 2017 as it breached lows reached during a sell-off in February, having wiped out about $3.4 trillion of market value since late September.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.27 percent, with Amazon, one of the best performing shares this year, sliding 4.5 percent.

A profit warning from ASOS, a previously high-flying UK online-clothing retailer, shocked investors, sending U.S. consumer discretionary shares down 2.8 percent

“U.S. retailers have been stocking up consumer goods from China before hikes in tariff, piling up inventories. From now their costs are seen rising next year. That may have been kind of known to everyone but it’s becoming reality,” said Tatsushi Maeno, senior strategist at Okasan Asset Management.

In addition, the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index indicated U.S. homebuilder sentiment had fallen to a three-and-a-half-year low. It was the second consecutive month of disappointing reading.
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Asian markets fall as Fed worries override Xi’s reassurance on economic reforms

By Marketwatch and Associated Press  Published: Dec 17, 2018 11:40 p.m. ET
Asian stocks fell on Tuesday following a major speech by Chinese President Xi Jinping, tracking losses on Wall Street as traders braced for an interest rate hike by Federal Reserve.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index NIK, -1.71%   was 1.6% lower and the Kospi SEU, -0.57%   in South Korea dropped 0.4%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng HSI, -1.19%  slipped 0.9%. The Shanghai Composite index SHCOMP, -1.20%   dropped 1%, as did Australia’s S&P ASX 200 XJO, -1.22% . Shares were lower in Taiwan Y9999, -0.70%   and Southeast Asia.

-----Investors had been anxiously awaiting a speech by Xi to commemorate the 40th anniversary of China‘s economic reforms. Some analysts were hoping Xi would announce new commitments to a free-market economy.

“China equities are parked in neutral as investors remain hopeful for a more proactive fiscal policy tone from mainland regulators at Chinas economic work conference,” said Stephen Innes, head of Asia-Pacific trading at Oanda, in a note to clients early Tuesday.

In his speech in Beijing, Xi called for China to “stay the course” on economic reforms, adding a defiant note that “no one is in a position to dictate to the Chinese people what should or should not be done,” an apparent job at the Trump administration’s efforts to force a trade deal.

Xi said economic reforms will continue, where needed. “We will resolutely reform what should and can be reformed, and make no change where there should and cannot be any reform,” he said.

He added that China has reached a point where it must move forward. “We will reinforce the development of the state economy while guiding the development of the non-state economy,” Xi said. “Opening brings progress while closure leads to backwardness.”

-----The Federal Open Market Committee begins a two-day meeting on Tuesday. It is expected to raise its short-term interest rate by a modest quarter-point, to a range of 2.25% to 2.5% a day later. Investors fear more monetary tightening would weigh on U.S. growth, and eventually, the global economy, that is already expected to slow in 2019 because of trade tensions. President Donald Trump tweeted that it was “incredible” the Fed was considering another rate hike, with “a very strong dollar and virtually no inflation.” The central bank forecasts three more rate hikes in 2019.

“Despite Donald Trump’s recent overture, the Fed looks set to hike rates again on Wednesday with market players anxious to see if the economy can handle more policy tightening given expectations for slowing growth,” ING economists Nicholas Mapa and Prakash Sakpal said in a commentary.
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All the biggest stocks that are now in a bear market, in one chart

By Jessica Marmor Shaw and Terrence Horan  Published: Dec 17, 2018 7:25 p.m. ET
There are some BIG names in bear territory right now.

And the list of bear-market stocks keeps growing every day, as the Dow Jones Industrial DJIA, -2.11%  , the S&P 500 SPX, -2.08%   and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, -2.27%   mark their worst start to December trading since 1980.

----- A correction is typically defined as a 10% drop for a stock or an index from a recent peak, while a bear market is a 20%-plus decrease. Data supplied by FactSet show that, as of the end of last week, 264 (53%) of S&P 500 companies are in bear markets.

With stocks closing down another 500 points on Monday and investors seriously on edge, that 53% may well keep ticking up as the week presses on.

The Dow is also on the verge of joining the S&P 500 in a so-called death cross, where the 50-day moving average — a short-term trend tracker — crosses below the 200-day moving average. Chart watchers believe that such a cross marks the point where a shorter-term decline graduates to a longer-term downtrend. The S&P 500 formed the death-cross pattern earlier in December, and a slew of other highly watched stocks have done the same over the past few months: Facebook FB, -2.69%   back in September, Netflix NFLX, -1.51%  and Alphabet GOOG, -2.45% GOOGL, -2.48%  in November, Amazon AMZN, -4.46%  just last week, and Apple AAPL, -0.93% is looking like it will also cross this week.
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U.S. banks quietly pull back from riskiest loans amid recession fears

December 17, 2018 / 12:09 PM
(Reuters) - As U.S. bank stocks tanked this month over fears of an impending recession, industry executives downplayed concerns to colleagues, analysts and journalists, arguing that the economy is in great shape.

But looking behind headline numbers showing healthy loan books, problems appear to be cropping up in areas such as home-equity lines of credit, commercial real estate and credit cards, according to federal data reviewed by Reuters. Lenders are also starting to cut relationships with customers who seem too risky.

All of that suggests U.S. lenders will feel the pain of a recession soon, even if losses are not cropping up quite yet.

“We are in somewhat of a goldilocks period of banking,” Andy Schornack, chief executive officer of Flagship Bank Minnesota, told Reuters. “Interest rates are high enough that you can make good money and credit quality is at high enough levels where it’s pretty hard to lose money.” Bank executives acknowledge that the U.S. economy is probably in the final stages of a long recovery from the 2007-09 global financial crisis. But they say that until credit metrics start to deteriorate meaningfully, there is no reason to boost reserves or slash customer financing.

“There is a big disconnect at this point in time between the market technicals and what we’re really seeing on the ground,” Citigroup Inc (C.N) Chief Financial Officer John Gerspach said at an industry event last week. “The fundamentals still look very good.”

His comments were echoed by other attendees including Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) CEO Brian Moynihan, Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) CEO Tim Sloan, and JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) CEO Jamie Dimon.

Although delinquency and default rates remain near historic lows, as do industry reserves and charge-offs for bad debt, banks have started to pull back.

Nearly half of the applications from customers with low credit scores were rejected in the four months ending in October, compared with 43 percent in the year-ago period, according to a survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Banks shuttered 7 percent of existing accounts, particularly among subprime borrowers, the highest rate since the Fed started conducting surveys in 2013. Home-equity lines of credit declined 8 percent across the industry, with growth slowing in areas such as credit cards and commercial-and-industrial loans, the survey showed.
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 I can take it. The tougher it gets, the cooler I get.

President Richard M. Nixon.

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Yes, it’s the banksters again. Why do these outfits still hold banking licences?
“I’m just a banker doing God’s work”

Lloyd Blankfein’s CEO Goldman Sachs. “Mr. Goldman Sacks.”

1MDB: Malaysia charges Goldman Sachs and two bankers

Malaysia has filed criminal charges against Goldman Sachs and two former employees in connection with a corruption and money laundering probe at the country's investment fund, 1MDB.

The US bank has been under scrutiny for its role in helping to raise funds for the 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB).

It is being investigated in at least six countries.

Goldman Sachs called the charges "misdirected" and said it would "vigorously defend them".

"The firm continues to co-operate with all authorities investigating these matters," the bank added.
Malaysia filed the charges against Goldman Sachs and its former bankers Tim Leissner and Roger Ng.

Mr Leissner served as Goldman's South East Asia chairman, and left the bank in 2016. Mr Ng was a managing director at Goldman until his departure in May 2014.

Last month, Mr Leissner, Mr Ng and Mr Low were served with criminal charges in the US in relation to 1MDB.

Mr Leissner pleaded guilty in the US to conspiring to launder money and violating anti-bribery laws.
In that case, prosecutors said former Goldman bankers Tim Leissner and Roger Ng worked with Mr Low to bribe government officials to win 1MDB business for Goldman Sachs.

Authorities in the US said billions of dollars were embezzled from the state fund - which was set up by the Prime Minister Najib Razak in 2009 - and were used to buy a list of expensive properties, and even finance the Wolf of Wall Street movie.

They allege that among the things bought by the money were:
  • L'Ermitage hotel property and business
  • Park Lane Hotel assets in New York
  • Four California properties
  • Four New York properties
  • One London property
  • A private jet
  • EMI assets, including royalties
  • Van Gogh painting
  • Two Monet paintings
This latest development sees Malaysia also bring charges against former 1MDB employee Jasmine Loo and financier Jho Low. 

Malaysia's attorney general Tommy Thomas said in a statement: "The charges arise from from the proceeds of three bonds issued by the subsidiaries of 1MDB, which were arranged and underwritten by Goldman Sachs."

The scandal has prompted investigations around the world and played a role in the election defeat earlier this year of Malaysia's former prime minister, Najib Razak, who is accused of pocketing $700m (£517m) from the fund he set up.

The finest steel has to go through the hottest fire.

President Richard M. Nixon.

Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

Graphene unlocks new potential for 'smart textiles'

Date: December 3, 2018

Source: University of Exeter

Summary: The quest to create affordable, durable and mass-produced 'smart textiles' has been given fresh impetus through the use of the wonder material graphene. 

The quest to create affordable, durable and mass-produced 'smart textiles' has been given fresh impetus through the use of the wonder material Graphene.

An international team of scientists, led by Professor Monica Craciun from the University of Exeter Engineering department, has pioneered a new technique to create fully electronic fibres that can be incorporated into the production of everyday clothing.

Currently, wearable electronics are achieved by essentially gluing devices to fabrics, which can mean they are too rigid and susceptible to malfunctioning.

The new research instead integrates the electronic devices into the fabric of the material, by coating electronic fibres with light-weight, durable components that will allow images to be shown directly on the fabric.

The research team believe that the discovery could revolutionise the creation of wearable electronic devices for use in a range of every day applications, as well as health monitoring, such as heart rates and blood pressure, and medical diagnostics.

The international collaborative research, which includes experts from the Centre for Graphene Science at the University of Exeter, the Universities of Aveiro and Lisbon in Portugal, and CenTexBel in Belgium, is published in the scientific journal Flexible Electronics.

Professor Craciun, co-author of the research said: "For truly wearable electronic devices to be achieved, it is vital that the components are able to be incorporated within the material, and not simply added to it.

Dr Elias Torres Alonso, Research Scientist at Graphenea and former PhD student in Professor Craciun's team at Exeter added "This new research opens up the gateway for smart textiles to play a pivotal role in so many fields in the not-too-distant future. By weaving the graphene fibres into the fabric, we have created a new technique to all the full integration of electronics into textiles. The only limits from now are really within our own imagination."

At just one atom thick, graphene is the thinnest substance capable of conducting electricity. It is very flexible and is one of the strongest known materials. The race has been on for scientists and engineers to adapt graphene for the use in wearable electronic devices in recent years.

This new research used existing polypropylene fibres -- typically used in a host of commercial applications in the textile industry -- to attach the new, graphene-based electronic fibres to create touch-sensor and light-emitting devices.
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You must pursue this investigation of Watergate even if it leads to the president. I'm innocent. You've got to believe I'm innocent. If you don't, take my job.

President Richard M. Nixon.

Once again, another year draws to a close and it’s time for my annual appeal. If you are one of the regular LIR readers of this usually six days a week update, that helps support my efforts with the occasional donation via the Paypal button, once again I sincerely thank you. A special thanks this year to the very kind reader that so generously helped me with my vet bills for the operation on my late border collie Rosie. After 12 years, Christmas won’t be the same without Rosie.
If you are a regular reader who finds the LIR informative, interesting, occasionally amusing or entertaining, please consider making a small donation via the Paypal button on the right of the LIR website. For obvious reasons in our new age of mainstream media fake news, I want to keep the LIR advertising free. But in any event thank you for reading and sending along helpful articles and suggestions.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished November.

DJIA: 25,538 +157 Down. NASDAQ: 7,331 +205 Down. SP500: 2,760 +129 Down. 
All three slow indicators are signalling more correction to come, although not necessarily ahead of the year-end. However, if a tidal wave of stock fund redemptions hits in December, 2018 could end in a great rising wave of panic selling into a generally thin markets trading year-end.

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