"I never think of the future. It comes soon enough."
Albert Einstein.
Will fast arriving technology next
decade, kill off many of the jobs we take for granted at present? Sadly, the
answer is probably, not possibly, but more on that later.
First more sign of our stock markets
struggling in the thin air at the top of what I think is a dying bubble. All
news is no longer good news as we approach the end of 2017, and 2018 already
looks stormy, to say the least. As America approaches a Thanksgiving Day
holiday shortened, and usually thinner, trading week, US markets are rife for
manipulation up or down.
"If facts
do not conform to theory, they must be disposed of."
N.R.F. Maier, Maier's Law.
Elevated CAPE ratio suggests stock market returns to decline, regional Fed bank finds
Published: Nov 13, 2017 2:54 p.m. ET
Post-2009 stock-market returns looking unrealistic, San Francisco Fed paper finds
A popular measure of valuing stocks looks set for a decline, and stock returns will suffer because of it, according to new research published Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.The cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings, or CAPE, ratio is the inflation-adjusted value of the S&P 500 index SPX, -0.26% divided by the real earnings of companies in the index averaged over the most recent 10 years.
Going back to 1881, big run-ups in the CAPE ratio—usually from the advent of new technologies including high-speed rail, automobiles and the internet—were met with substantial decline in stock prices.
The quarterly average CAPE ratio stands at around 30, exceeded only by the peak values of 43 in 2000 and 31 in 1929, according to a paper from San Francisco Fed research adviser Kevin Lansing.
Lansing compared the CAPE ratio against different economic variables to determine whether it’s signaling that stocks are overvalued. So far, the answer isn’t really—the actual CAPE ratio is about 8% above where a regression model that includes the natural rate of interest, potential GDP and core inflation suggests it should be. It was 40% above the fitted ratio in early 2000, at the peak of the internet bubble.
But the projected path of that model implies a 13% decline in the CAPE ratio over the next 10 years.
More
Dow, S&P log weekly loss as investors weigh earnings, tax plan
Published: Nov 17, 2017 4:38 p.m. ET
Tesla gains after electric big rig unveiled
U.S. stocks finished lower on Friday, with the S&P 500 and the Dow logging a second straight week of losses as investors tracked the progress of the Republican tax cut plan wending its way through the legislative grind.How did the main benchmarks perform?
The S&P 500 SPX, -0.26% fell 6.79 points, or 0.3%, to 2,578.85 for a weekly decline of 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.43% shed 100.12 points, or 0.4%, to 23,358.24. For the week, the blue-chip index dropped 0.3%.
The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.15% slid 10.50 points, or 0.2%, to 6,782.79. However, it outperformed the S&P 500 and the Dow on a weekly basis, adding 0.5%.
The small-cap Russell 2000 index RUT, +0.40% gained 5.94 points, or 0.4%, to 1,492.82.
More
Now back to technology arriving to
threaten many jobs in trucking, general transportation, and repair sectors, as
we switch over to driverless electric vehicles. EVs have fewer moving parts and
will require less complicated maintenance ahead. Driverless vehicles, trucks,
busses and cars, are just that driverless. Where will all the redundant drivers
go to find work? But if driverless vehicle technology becomes standard, how
long before it extends into ships, trains and airlines? What happens if EVs are the future, in the
petro-chemical sector?
"Very few people can afford to be poor."
George Bernard Shaw.
Tesla Unveils ‘World’s Fastest Production Car’ and Electric Big Rig
By Dana Hull
November 17, 2017, 4:30 AM GMT Updated
on November 17, 2017, 6:15 AM GMT
Elon Musk pulled off a Steve Jobs-ian “one more thing” surprise at the
unveiling of Tesla Inc.’s Semi model, rolling a new Roadster
sports car out of the back of a big rig on stage.The Semi truck going into production in 2019 will boast 500 miles of range, a battery and motors that will last 1 million miles and cheaper total operating costs than diesel models, Tesla’s chief executive officer said. The Roadster, available a year later, will be the fastest production car ever made, he said.
“The point of doing this is to just give a hardcore smack-down to gasoline cars,” Musk told the crowd gathered at Tesla’s design studio near Los Angeles, touting the Roadster’s 1.9-second 0-60 miles per hour time and 620 miles of range. “Driving a gasoline sports car is going to feel like a steam engine with a side of quiche.”
It was crucial for Musk to wow watchers of the Semi event. Tesla has stumbled out of the gate with the Model 3 sedan, the first car it’s trying to mass produce and sell to more mainstream consumers. With battery bottlenecks undercutting output, the CEO and master pitchman was seeking to regenerate hype about future products capable of hauling in more revenue.
“Elon’s showmanship remains intact, even as his customers’ patience for Model 3 delivery wanes,” Karl Brauer, executive publisher of Kelley Blue Book and Autotrader, wrote in an email.
“The specs on the new semi truck and sports car would put both vehicles at the top of their segments, assuming they can be produced and sold as part of a sustainable business plan. So far that final element has eluded Tesla.”
The truck is vital to Musk’s mission to electrify all the major forms of “terrestrial transport.” While battery-powered passenger cars generate much more buzz, electrifying big rigs would make a material difference in cleaning up the transportation sector.
The urgency to shift from emissions-spewing diesel
engines is particularly acute in California, where the ports of Los Angeles and
Long Beach plan to phase them out in favor of natural gas or zero-emission
powertrains. Adding autonomous features like Autopilot -- an enhanced version
of which will be offered as standard on the Semi -- may also help operators
save on labor costs and spur major
upheaval to the commercial trucking industry.
Tesla’s target market for the Semi is both fleet
operators and independent owner operators. The company will be its own first
customer, using the truck to transport parts from its battery gigafactory in
Nevada to its auto assembly plant in California.
----Tesla is far from alone in trying to electrify semi trucks. Mercedes-Benz maker Daimler AG has shown several battery-powered prototypes this year. Paccar Inc. is working on electric, hybrid, hydrogen fuel cell and natural gas-powered models, Chief Executive Officer Ron Armstrong said in April, though he cautioned it’ll be about 10 years before electric trucks pose a credible threat.
Volvo AB has been testing a hybrid concept truck for long-haul applications, while Navistar International Corp. and Volkswagen AG’s truck division have said they’ll jointly develop a battery-powered medium-duty truck for as soon as 2019.
More
Driverless cars on British roads as Jaguar Land Rover moves ahead in race for autonomy
Alan
Tovey17 November 2017 • 12:01am
Jaguar
Land Rover has quietly started testing driverless cars on British roads that
are simultaneously being used by the general public, in a clear indication that
Britain’s biggest manufacturer is determined the country will play a leading
role in the race to develop autonomous vehicles.
Coventry-based
JLR has been putting its computer-controlled vehicles through their paces on
the streets of its home town for several weeks.
This is
the first time a UK-based manufacturer has unleashed such technology on the
open road. Driverless cars have previously been confined to closed roads and
tracks or only used on open roads for short demonstration periods.
Ralf
Speth, chief executive of JLR, said: “We stand on the brink of a mobility
revolution. The impact of the changes we are about to embrace will be huge
across all sectors of the UK economy.
“The opportunities are great: this mobility revolution
will change lives profoundly.”
As part of the UK Autodrive consortium, JLR cars are driving a challenging half-mile route on Coventry’s roads in a “mixed use” area. Although a safety driver is on board to take over in an emergency, the cars rely on their own sensors to react to traffic, pedestrians and signals, with the driver not touching the controls in a “hands-off, feet-off” scenario.
The tests are designed to help future autonomous vehicles replicate human behaviour and reactions when driving.
Britain taking a lead in driverless technology could deliver a massive boost to the country’s economy. The worldwide value of autonomous systems has been estimated at £900bn by 2025.
A study by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, the industry trade body, has calculated that 320,000 British jobs could be created by 2030 if the UK establishes itself as a leader in the field. The Government announced policies in last year’s Queen’s Speech that were aimed at minimising red tape for self-driving cars.
Britain already has a headstart over many nations in autonomous vehicles because the UK never ratified the Vienna Convention. This legislation requires that “every driver shall at all times be able to control his vehicle”. The UK therefore does not have to rewrite the law in order to test self-driving vehicles on public roads.
More
Norway Idea to Exit Oil Stocks Is ‘Shot Heard Around the World’
By Joe Ryan and Anna Hirtenstein
November 17, 2017, 5:01 AM GMT
Norway’s proposal
to sell off $35 billion in oil and gas stocks brings sudden and unparalleled
heft to a once-grassroots movement to enlist investors in the fight against
climate change.The Nordic nation’s $1 trillion sovereign wealth fund said Thursday that it’s considering unloading its shares of Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc and other oil giants to diversify its holdings and guard against drops in crude prices. European oil stocks fell.
Norges Bank Investment Management
would not be the first institutional investor to back away from fossil fuels.
But until now, most have been state pension funds, universities and other
smaller players that have limited their divestments to coal, tar sands or some
of the other dirtiest fossil fuels. Norway’s fund is the world’s largest equity
investor, controlling about 1.5 percent of global stocks. If it follows through
on its proposal, it would be the first to abandon the sector altogether.
“This is an enormous change,” said Mindy Lubber, president of Ceres, a non-profit that advocates for sustainable investing. “It’s a shot heard around the world.”
The proposal rattled equity markets. While Norwegian officials say the plan isn’t based on any particular view about future oil prices, it’s apt to ratchet up pressure on fossil fuel companies already struggling with the growth of renewable energy.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Oil and Gas index reversed gains after the announcement, sliding 0.4 percent in London. Shell’s B shares declined 2.4 percent in London. Exxon fell 0.8 percent and BP Plc slipped 0.8 percent.
Norway’s Finance Ministry, which oversees the fund, said it will study the proposal and will take at least a year to decide what to do. The fund has already sold off most of its coal stocks.
More
Finally, food for thought. Is this the
future of banking in the 21st century? If it is, how many jobs will
go?
November 18, 2017 / 4:14 AM
China Citic, Baidu launch direct bank in fintech push
BEIJING (Reuters) - China Citic Bank Corp (601998.SS) and search engine giant Baidu
Inc (BIDU.O) launched on Saturday a direct banking
joint venture, dubbed AiBank, to capitalize on China’s rapidly growing fintech
sector.
AiBank is one among several tie-ups between an internet firm and a lender in China’s booming online finance market where technology gurus like Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA.N) and Tencent Holdings Ltd (0700.HK) have already set up their own finance arms to offer a range of financial products including payment, wealth management and micro loans.
A direct bank offers services over the internet instead of
through physical branches.
AiBank will focus on lending to individuals and small
businesses while leveraging big data and artificial intelligence to build new
risk control models, Li Rudong, president of the new bank said at a launch
event in Beijing.
Li said
60 percent of the new bank’s employees will be technology staff.
“AiBank
is the future of intelligent finance...It is an institution that understands
customers best and understands finance best,” said Baidu Chief Operating
Officer Lu Qi.
Mid-tier
lender Citic Bank owns 70 percent of the joint venture, while Baidu controls
the remaining 30 percent. The direct bank has a registered capital of 2 billion
yuan.
China’s
banking regulator approved the establishment of AiBank earlier this year.
"God must love the common man, he made so many of them."
Abraham Lincoln, 16th United States President.
It is distressing to read and listen to the nonsense in the Canadian media
about Donald Trump. It is too early to predict whether he will be a successful
president or not. But no one relying on the Canadian media would be aware that
he has more than doubled the economic growth rate, reduced illegal immigration
by about 80 per cent, withdrawn from the insane Paris Climate accord, helped
add trillions to U.S. stock market values, created nearly two million new jobs,
led the rout of ISIL, and gained full Chinese adherence to the unacceptability of North Korean
nuclear military capability. He will probably pass the greatest tax cuts and reforms since Reagan, if not Lyndon
Johnson, by Christmas, and may throw out the most unpopular feature of
Obamacare, the coercive mandate, with it.
He can be a tiresome and implausible public figure at times, and the reservations widely held about him, in the United States and elsewhere, are understandable and not unfounded. He is, however, the most effective U.S. president since Reagan. In the 20 pre-Trump years, over $5 trillion and scores of thousands of American casualties were squandered in Middle East wars (while most Iraqis were handed over to Iranian influence), an immense humanitarian refugee tragedy was provoked, along with the greatest world economic crisis since the 1930s, American GDP per capita growth and capital investment shrunk by 75 per cent, the work force lost over 15 million people, millions of unskilled, illegal migrants were admitted, and the national debt of 233 years of American independence more than doubled in the last seven years of Obama. Those 20 years were the only time of absolute decline in American history, as well as a period of prolonged economic stagnation. Americans, unlike the older great nations of Europe and the Far East, have never experienced such setbacks and stagnation, and don’t like or accept them. It was in these circumstances that this unusual president was elected.
And finally, finally, some sense, real
news on Donald Trump’s America, even if from a most unlikely writer. Just don’t
anyone tell the extreme left wing BBC. My thanks to Ian in Toronto for supplying
the link.
21st
century adage: Is that true, or did you hear it on the BBC?
Conrad Black: Trump is already the most successful U.S. president since Ronald Reagan
The Canadian media has failed in its coverage of the biggest political news in the world in many years. Trump is the most effective U.S. president since Reagan
November 17, 2017 11:15 AM EST
He can be a tiresome and implausible public figure at times, and the reservations widely held about him, in the United States and elsewhere, are understandable and not unfounded. He is, however, the most effective U.S. president since Reagan. In the 20 pre-Trump years, over $5 trillion and scores of thousands of American casualties were squandered in Middle East wars (while most Iraqis were handed over to Iranian influence), an immense humanitarian refugee tragedy was provoked, along with the greatest world economic crisis since the 1930s, American GDP per capita growth and capital investment shrunk by 75 per cent, the work force lost over 15 million people, millions of unskilled, illegal migrants were admitted, and the national debt of 233 years of American independence more than doubled in the last seven years of Obama. Those 20 years were the only time of absolute decline in American history, as well as a period of prolonged economic stagnation. Americans, unlike the older great nations of Europe and the Far East, have never experienced such setbacks and stagnation, and don’t like or accept them. It was in these circumstances that this unusual president was elected.
----In many advanced democratic countries, the political
systems have begun to fragment. The German Social Democrats have
half-disintegrated, the British Labour Party has been taken over by outright
Marxists, France has practically obliterated its traditional parties except for
the residue of the Gaullists, and in elections where only 30 per cent of
eligible voters voted, the French handed the legislature to a party that was
only invented, out of whole cloth, 15 months ago. The Austrian and Czech
electorates have divided their support among a variety of parties and elevated,
as France has, men in their thirties, who could be young nephews of Justin
Trudeau. It was in these circumstances that Hillary Clinton narrowly kept her
Democratic Party out of the hands of Senator Bernie Sanders and his socialist option,
and Donald Trump, as he smashed the Bush-McCain-Romney tweedle-dee
near-Democrats, also defeated the Ted Cruz far-right Republicans.
More, much, much, more.
“Socialism only works in two places: Heaven where they don’t
need it and hell where they already have it.”
Ronald Reagan.
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