Baltic Dry Index. 1473 -03 Brent Crude 64.19
If all
else fails, immortality can always be assured by spectacular error.
John Kenneth
Galbraith.
Forget Brexit,
Catalonia, China even North Korea. President Trump seems to have prompted a
crackdown in Saudi Arabia, and seems now to be promoting yet another war in the
Middle East. This time round, it seems
to be team Saudi Arabia-USA v Iran-Lebanon-Syria-Russia, match up. In effect,
and all against all, Sunni v Shia showdown from the shores of the Mediterranean,
to the valley of Indian held Kashmir. Crude oil prices will likely shoot through the
roof. I wonder which side Turkey will
choose? Eradicating the poor Kurds looks an easy option with everyone else busy.
Will the Saudis invade Qatar?
But first this. Asia
bubbles on and on. Everything’s just perfect suggests Shunichi Otsuka,
general manager in the research department at Ichiyoshi Securities in Tokyo. But
some big EUSSR tax bills for some corporations lie ahead.
Asia Stocks Trade at Decade High as Oil Holds Gain: Markets Wrap
By Andreea Papuc
Updated on November 7, 2017, 5:19 AM GMT
Asian stocks climbed, with a regional index trading at its highest in a
decade, as energy and materials companies benefited from a surge in oil and
metals prices.Equities rallied from Japan -- where earnings have propelled the Nikkei 225 Stock Average to near its highest level since 1992 -- to Sydney and Hong Kong, after a muted gain in the S&P 500 Index overnight. Australia’s dollar pulled back after getting a boost as the central bank highlighted confidence in the investment outlook, though left its forecast for growth largely unchanged and kept interest rates on hold. A political power play in Saudi Arabia contributed to oil climbing to its highest in more than two years.
“Good economy, good corporate earnings, good supply-demand conditions in the market are continuing, which have been supporting the stock market,” said Shunichi Otsuka, general manager in the research department at Ichiyoshi Securities in Tokyo. “The global economy as well as Japan’s economy are growing.”
More
EU Vows Tax Action After Paradise Paper Leaks
By Nikos Chrysoloras Viktoria Dendrinou, and Rainer Buergin
Updated on November 7, 2017, 5:00 AM GMT
The
days in paradise may be numbered for those seeking refuge from heavy tax
burdens in remote islands. Finance ministers representing the world’s largest
market vowed to take action following the leak of records exposing prominent
members of the global business A-list.
“We will examine the new documents and will discuss the consequences this has for upcoming EU legislation,” acting German Finance Minister Peter Altmaier said ahead of a meeting with his euro-area counterparts on Monday. “We will take a very close look at this,” he said, referring to the so-called Paradise Papers reports by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists and partner news outlets.
The new set of data taken from an offshore law firm again exposed the hidden wealth of individuals and shows how corporations, hedge funds and investors may have skirted taxes. A year after the Panama Papers, this new massive leak of confidential information from the Bermuda law firm Appleby Group Services Ltd. has shone another light on the use of offshore accounts.
Apple Inc., which has clashed with the European Commission over taxes, was ensnared in the leak. The BBC reported that the iPhone maker moved its unit holding most of its large untaxed offshore cash reserve to the Channel Island of Jersey after a 2013 “crackdown on its controversial Irish tax practices.”
The Paradise Papers put “renewed emphasis on the work which the European Commission is doing to fight tax avoidance,” Valdis Dombrovskis, vice-president of the bloc’s executive arm, told reporters in Brussels. The bloc’s anti-trust chief, Margrethe Vestager, agreed, saying in a tweet that the leaks enable “the work against tax avoidance, for transparency.”
The EU has been working on finalizing a so-called blacklist of uncooperative tax jurisdictions by the end of the year. This list of tax havens will be discussed at a meeting of EU finance ministers on Tuesday. While the discussion was originally planned for the ministers’ December meeting, the matter was put on the agenda following the Paradise Papers revelations.
More
Now back to our new
emerging, top Trump hot spot. What could possibly go wrong in the Middle East?
Trump voices support for Saudi shakeup, as Iran accuses U.S. of meddling
Published: Nov 6, 2017 11:19 p.m. ET
Iran minister accuses Kushner of helping to destabilize Lebanon
President Donald Trump voiced his approval Monday for the weekend
political purge in Saudi Arabia that, while ostensibly part of an
anticorruption crackdown, is widely seen by analysts as a move by the kingdom’s
crown prince to consolidate power.
“I have great confidence in King Salman and the Crown Prince of Saudi
Arabia, they know exactly what they are doing,” Trump tweeted Monday from
Japan. “Some of those they are harshly treating have been ‘milking’ their
country for years!”
On Saturday, more than five dozen Saudi princes, ministers and prominent businessmen, including billionaire investor Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, were arrested. Alwaleed has a number of large holdings in Western companies, such as Citigroup Inc. C, -0.34% , eBay Inc. EBAY, -0.35% , Apple Inc. AAPL, +1.01% and Twitter Inc. TWTR, -2.56% . Separately, another Saudi prince was killed in an unexplained helicopter crash Sunday near the country’s border with Yemen.
The roundup is seen by many as a move by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the heir to the Saudi throne, to consolidate power as he moves to make sweeping changes to the country.
----Tensions in Saudi Arabia were further strained Monday after a top minister said Lebanon has declared war against it. That comes after Friday’s surprise resignation of Lebanon’s Saudi-backed prime minister, Saad Hariri, as he was visiting the Saudi capital of Riyadh. In Lebanon, Iran backs Hezbollah, a group that Hariri and the Saudis oppose.
And on Saturday, a ballistic missile fired from Yemen — reportedly by Iran-backed rebels — was intercepted over Riyadh. On Monday, Saudi Arabia blamed Iran and called it an “act of war.”
Iran on Monday accused the U.S. of fomenting turmoil in the region, with Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif tweeting that a recent visit by top Trump adviser Jared Kushner led to Hariri’s resignation in a move to destabilize the region.
Kushner took an unannounced trip to Saudi Arabia at the end of October, Politico reported last week. A source told Politico that Kushner’s trip was to advance peace in the Middle East.
Trump visited Saudi Arabia in May, just weeks before a coalition of Mideast countries, including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, Yemen and the United Arab Emirates, accused Qatar of backing terrorist activities and blockaded the small Gulf state, creating a rift between important U.S. allies in the region. Trump also met Bahrain’s king during his Saudi trip, and soon after that Bahrain violently cracked down on internal opposition.
More
U.S. oil price surges the most in about a year amid Saudi political unrest
Published: Nov 6, 2017 4:14 p.m. ET
U.S. oil marks biggest single-day move in dollar terms since Nov. 30, 2016
U.S. oil futures surged Monday, marking their best single-session rally — on a dollar basis — in nearly a year, as the crude market was rattled by political disruptions over the weekend in Saudi Arabia that saw officials and members of the royal family detained.December West Texas Intermediate crude CLZ7, -0.02% on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed up $1.71, or 3.1%, to $57.35 a barrel, marking its highest settlement since June 30, 2015, and its sharpest daily gain, in dollar terms, since Nov. 30, 2016, according to FactSet.
January Brent crude LCOF8, -0.09% gained $2.20, or 3.5%, to end at $64.27 a barrel. For Brent, it was the biggest dollar gain in a single session since Dec. 1, 2016, and the largest daily percentage increase since Sept. 25, according to WSJ Market Data Group.
Oil prices have been in a decided uptrend, climbing to the best levels in more than two years on Friday, partly on hopes this year’s Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries production-cap deal will be extended, perhaps through 2018. OPEC meets at the end of the month to make a decision on extending the global production agreement.
However, crude added to its recent rise amid news of a wave of arrests of Saudi Arabian princes, businessmen and government ministers in what has been billed as an anticorruption crackdown but is seen by some as a consolidation of power by Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman. Saudi Arabia is among the world’s top producers of oil and OPEC’s most influential member.
----On Friday, U.S. oil-rig count data from Baker Hughes BHGE, +8.79% showed that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil fell by eight to 729 last week, marking the fourth weekly decline in the past five weeks. That decline comes amid near-record demand for oil in the U.S.
On Saturday, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, Khalid al-Falih said there is still a “significant amount of work to do” to bring down global oil supply, after he met with Russian, Uzbek and Kazakh oil ministers, according to CNBC.
Beyond internal strife, moves in Saudi Arabia also come amid elevated tensions between Riyadh and Middle Eastern neighbors, including Yemen, after a Saudi prince was killed Sunday in a helicopter crash near the border. The cause of the crash is unknown.
More
Saudi Corruption Purge Snares $33 Billion of Net Worth in Riyadh
By Devon Pendleton and Zainab Fattah
Updated on November 7, 2017, 4:53 AM GMT
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s crackdown on some of Saudi
Arabia’s richest and most powerful men has put $33 billion of personal wealth
at risk.
The stunning series of arrests has implicated three of the country’s richest people, including Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, who’s No. 50 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index ranking of the world’s 500 richest people, with $19 billion. Also being held are the kingdom’s second- and fifth-wealthiest people, as well as a travel-agency mogul and Bakr Binladin, a scion of a one of the country’s biggest construction empires.
The arrests, which the crown prince said are part of a fight against corruption, reportedly have led the government to freeze the accounts of the more than three dozen men detained and believed to be held at the Riyadh Ritz-Carlton.
More
But up next, did
Citigroup’s Saudi backer just drop the bank deep in Saudi quicksand? No one
knows at this stage, but Citi will need to be whiter than white, to get out of
Saudi’s Dodge, to mangle metaphors. “Whiter than white,” isn’t something
usually associated with doing business in the Kingdom that still bans women
from driving, and has an uncomfortable association between heads and swords.
Still on the brighter side of current developments, things are probably looking
up for HSBC. However, it’s a pretty good bet that Citi CEO Michael Corbat,
won’t be heading to Riyadh anytime soon.
Not until the weather and tempers cool down. Anyone know if President
Trump ever tweeted about CEO Corbat?
Citigroup Faces Saudi Setback as Billionaire Backer Arrested
By Stefania Spezzati and Archana Narayanan
November 6, 2017, 5:53 AM GMT Updated
on November 6, 2017, 12:21 PM GMT
Citigroup Inc. may face new obstacles to rebuilding its Saudi Arabia
business after the bank’s longstanding shareholder and promoter was arrested in
an anti-corruption drive.Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, the 62-year-old Saudi billionaire, was detained by authorities on Saturday without disclosure of the allegations. The government also named former HSBC Holdings Plc Middle East and North Africa head Mohammad Al Tuwaijri as economy and planning minister as part of the crackdown.
International lenders are expanding their foothold in the kingdom as the nation overhauls its economy and plans to list Saudi Arabian Oil Co., or Aramco, in what could be the largest initial public offering in history. Citigroup, which lost its Saudi investment banking license by selling its stake in Samba Financial Group in 2004, has been plotting a return. The bank got a new license in April.
Alwaleed’s arrest is “likely to make things more difficult for Citigroup
in Saudi due to companies and individuals being cautious of any association,”
said Emad Mostaque, co-chief investment officer of emerging-markets hedge fund
Capricorn Fund Managers Ltd. The bank had a “turbulent time in Saudi Arabia
after they backed out of Samba and have steadily built their presence back up,”
he said.
A spokeswoman for Citigroup declined to comment.
Alwaleed’s Kingdom Holding Co., which has held Citigroup shares since 1991, increased its stake during the global financial crisis as shares plunged. While the size of Alwaleed’s position isn’t disclosed, neither he nor his company were listed among owners with a stake of 5 percent or more in the New York-based lender’s latest proxy filing this year.
Citigroup tried and failed to get a license to return to Saudi Arabia in 2006 and again in 2010, despite lobbying by Alwaleed. The prince said in an interview that year that he was helping the bank set up in the kingdom.
If Alwaleed faces charges even remotely connected to the licensing of Citigroup, its ability to get future business from the kingdom would be diminished, said Joice Mathew, head of equity research at United Securities in Muscat. “It would no longer be a cakewalk for them as we anticipated earlier. Their license is there to stay, but they would have to sweat a lot for generating business.”
The bank’s base of support in Saudi Arabia is broader than Alwaleed, according to two people familiar with the company’s operations in the kingdom who asked to remain anonymous. Citigroup executives have long cultivated relationships with power brokers, like members of the royal family or high-ranking officials, and don’t rely on Alwaleed for bank business such as licensing, one of them said.
More
‘Panic’ could set in after Saudi purge nabs ‘Warren Buffett of the Middle East’
Published: Nov 6, 2017 12:00 p.m. ET
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s sweeping purge over the weekend has
left investors to ponder — among all sorts of other things — what the
tightening of his grip on the Kingdom ultimately means for global markets. Specifically, should the arrest of Prince al-Waleed bin Talal, the familiar face of Saudi Arabia’s global investment scene, be a concern for those holding stakes in companies linked to his Kingdom Holding firm 4280, -5.26% which was smacked with a double-digit drop when the news broke.
In our call of the day, United Securities head of equity research Joice Mathew told Bloomberg there’s “a good chance” Twitter TWTR, -2.56% and Citigroup C, -0.34% will get hammered in reaction to the news.
“In the absence of news or details on what kind of corruption this is, we’ll see some initial panic, that’s for sure,” Mathew said. Not much panic so far, but both stocks are down in an up market early.
Al-Waleed, a Saudi royal with a vast personal fortune that puts him among the world’s richest men, is known as one of Citigroup’s biggest and most vocal shareholders. He also owns about 5% of Twitter’s outstanding shares, according to Bloomberg, and he’s a top investor in Apple AAPL, +1.01%
Now, al-Waleed, who’s been called “the Warren Buffett of the Middle East,” faces laundering charges, a source told the Wall Street Journal.
President Donald Trump probably isn’t shedding a tear:
Dopey Prince @Alwaleed_Talal wants to control our U.S.
politicians with daddy’s money. Can’t do it when I get elected. #Trump2016
So far, markets don’t appear to be all that concerned with what’s
happening over there, although the uncertainty has helped lift oil prices,
which reached levels not seen since the summer of 2015.
More
Finally today, the anti-Brexit, anti—Trump, defeatist, closet socialist,
Bloomberg, rolls over and plays Fake News American doormat to Xi’s China.
Thankfully, President Trump doesn’t follow Michael Bloomberg’s script.
"For
240 years it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against America, and now is no
time to start. America’s golden goose of commerce and innovation will continue
to lay more and larger eggs. America’s social security promises will be honored
and perhaps made more generous. And, yes, America’s kids will live far better
than their parents did."
Warren
Buffett
China Has Upper Hand, While U.S. Is Hobbled by Trump
Xi Jinping, who may be
the strongest Chinese leader since Mao, plays the high cards on Korea.
by Albert R. Hunt
November 5, 2017, 3:00 PM GMT
An American president, whose new administration is beset by chaos, meets
an emboldened leader of the world's other superpower. It's 1961, in Vienna, and
John F. Kennedy, reeling from the Cuban Bay of Pigs fiasco, is bullied by
Nikita Khrushchev with consequences. A year later, the leader of the Soviet
Union surreptitiously put nuclear weapons 90 miles off American shores.
A number of foreign-policy experts cite this analogy in worrying about
Donald Trump's meeting later this week with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, as part
of his long current Asian trip. The stakes potentially are huge, including the
threat of nuclear conflict in North Korea.
Today's two superpowers are coming from different directions. President
Xi, consolidating his hold, probably is the most powerful Chinese leader since
Mao Zedong. It's not just talk when he proclaims China is taking "center
stage" in the world, replacing American influence on Asia and filling a
leadership void in much of the rest of the world.
"China is more confident today than anytime in its modern
history," notes Tom Donilon, national security adviser to Barack Obama and
an Asia expert.
Despite all of America's economic and military power, it's a weakened
president who arrived in Asia this weekend. Trump is more unpopular than any
previous president at this juncture; neither he nor the U.S. command respect
from many countries, and he is besieged by problems at home, especially a
wide-ranging criminal investigation of his campaign and possibly him. None of
that disappears because he's 10,000 miles away.
"Trump is not going in with a strong hand," says Graham
Allison, the Harvard professor and former national security official who wrote
a book on the potential conflict between the two countries. "He may not
know that."
Moreover, a 12-day, five-nation Asian trip is punishing even for a
president in good physical condition, which Trump is not, or who engages in
careful preparation, which he does not. There will be too many opportunities
for mishaps.
There are favorable elements. Trump seems to have a genuinely good
relationship with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan. In Beijing, the Chinese
will roll out the red carpet, with parades, ceremonies and rhetorical
flourishes proclaiming seminal successes. They know Trump loves flattery.
There are multiple substantive issues, including trade and real access
to Chinese markets, not just a couple of deals likely to be announced, as well
as frictions in the South China Sea, amid some indications of a less aggressive
Chinese posture there. But North Korea, with its expanding nuclear threat, is
the dominant question.
Trump plans to pressure Beijing to strong-arm the North to relinquish
nuclear weapons. The Chinese have contempt for the regime in Pyongyang. Neither
Xi nor Kim Jong Un have visited each other's countries since taking power. Some
Chinese officials privately refer to the North Korean as "little
fatty."
But the most unacceptable outcome for Xi is a regime collapse, a unified
Korea. The Chinese won't sit still for that. Earlier this year, in a session at
Mar-a-Lago, Xi explained the complexities of the Korean Peninsula to the U.S.
president. This time he might offer another history lesson, reminding Trump
that in 1950 General Douglas MacArthur assured Washington that a war with China
over Korea was "inconceivable."
Then thousands of Chinese troops poured across the border to attack the
American-led forces. More than two and half years later, President Dwight
Eisenhower engineered a cessation to that conflict, after more than 2.5 million
casualties, including more than 36,000 Americans.
The Chinese want to tamp down the tensions to avoid any conflict, to see
the two sides stand down, and begin negotiations. Is that an opportunity Trump
should and can seize?
The Washington Post's David Ignatius, the eminent foreign policy
columnist, reports that Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and others have done a
lot of preparatory work for this week. Let's hope that's sufficient, and Trump
will pay heed.
MoreCrooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
No crooks today,
normal service resumes tomorrow.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Safari Lodges and Solar-Plus-Storage: Perfect Bedfellows
Solar energy helps safari
lodges cut costs and minimize their ecological footprint.
November 3, 2017
Safari lodges are normally located in pristine nature, far away from civilization. They are often not connected to the national grid and generate power on-site using diesel generators. Diesel power is flexible, but also has various disadvantages such as has high costs, partly due to transport, and a significant ecological impact, mainly CO2-emissions, local hazardous exhaust gases, and noise. In solar-diesel hybrid applications, solar is combined with diesel generators for reducing diesel consumption. The new THEnergy-IPS report, “Hybrid Solar Mini-grids for Remote Safari Lodges in Africa” shows that as a result, costs are reduced, and both noise and emission levels are improved.
Air conditioning, fans, fridges, freezers, dishwashers, washing machines, pumps, lighting, television, radio, phone and camera charging, and heating are among the main sources of energy consumption at safari lodges. Power is needed around the clock, with a peak during the middle of the day and in the early evening. Typical safari guests are rather demanding regarding stable electricity supply. Although green efforts by safari lodges are supported, normally guests are not willing to accept restrictions. A reliable and robust power supply is a basic requirement for safari lodges. Studies show that it contributes to high customer satisfaction. Hybrid controllers or energy conversion units are the key components for efficiently synchronizing the load with various power sources and energy storage, and will ensure a reliable power supply. In addition, solar power is often 50 percent (or more) cheaper than diesel power at remote safari locations.
Energy conversion units like IPS’s EXERON solution have been successfully
used for military and telecom applications, two sectors with extremely high
requirements regarding reliability. Customers honor hot-swappable, plug &
play approaches, which save significant costs during installations and for
maintenance — particularly in remote locations. The power demand of game
reserves might change over time, e.g. through lodge extensions or when their
vehicle fleet is electrified. Modular approaches allow for adding additional
solar and storage capacity at a later stage. The share of renewable energy can
be increased for fully powering lodges with solar or wind energy plus storage
24/7.
There is an excellent fit between safari lodges on the one hand, and
solar and energy storage applications on the other. The first safari lodge
operators like Wilderness Safaris, &beyond, Singita, and Kambaku have
turned to powering their lodges with solar and storage. The biggest off-grid
installation can reach a size of more than 400 kWp solar and 3.2-MWh battery
storage. Safari lodges are a very attractive target segment for solar and
energy storage companies.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished October
DJIA: 23,277 +233 Up. NASDAQ: 6,728 +284 Up. SP500: 2,575 +183 Up.
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