Baltic Dry Index. 1586 +08 Brent Crude 57.46
Some foreigners with full
bellies and nothing better to do engage in finger-pointing at us. First, China
does not export revolution; second, it does not export famine and poverty; and
third, it does not mess around with you. So what else is there to say?
Xi Jinping
Today,
tired of covering collapsing Europe, we
take a look at the US stock market, while we await closing developments from the Communist Party of China’s Congress,
and tomorrow’s announcement of the CPC’s new Politburo. President Xi’s closing
speech will be well covered later today, with Politburo watchers having a field
day tomorrow. But first this, don’t mess with President Xi.
China's Communist Party Further Elevates Xi Jinping
By Ting Shi
China’s ruling Communist Party approved a revised charter that enshrined
President Xi Jinping’s name under its guiding principles, elevating him to a
status that eluded his two immediate predecessors.
The amended constitution voted on by the Communist Party in Beijing
listed “Xi Jinping thought on socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new
era” alongside the theories of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. While presidents
Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao also secured contributions to the document, neither
was featured by name.
The revisions confirmed Xi’s rapid consolidation of power and will
reinforce speculation that he might seek to stay on after his second term ends
in 2022. No Chinese leader since Mao has managed to put his stamp on the
party’s prevailing ideology in its foundational document before stepping
down.
“Enshrining ‘Xi Jinping thought’ in the Constitution will ensure that Xi
Jinping is considered one of the great transformative leaders” of China, said
Elizabeth Economy, director of Asia Studies at the New York-based Council on
Foreign Relations. The move “again puts him on par with Mao Zedong and Deng
Xiaoping.”
More
In
US stock markets, complacency, and tax and future profit expectations have
never been higher. The algo-trading computers are virtually all-in, and virtually
all of them long. What could possibly go
wrong?
Dow, S&P 500 snap 6-day win streak as investors wade through earnings deluge
Published: Oct 23, 2017 4:42 p.m. ET
The
S&P 500 and the Dow snapped a six-day winning streak on Monday as investors
weighed prospects for tax cuts while parsing the latest corporate earnings for
clues on where stocks are headed in the near term.
The S&P 500 index SPX, -0.40% dropped 10.23 points, or 0.4%, to close at 2,564.98. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.23% shed 54.67 points, or 0.2%, to 23,273.96.
Read: The S&P 500 just made stock market history—for doing almost nothing
The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.64% fell 42.23 points, or 0.6%, to 6,586.83.
The latest decline comes after major indexes scored all-time closing highs on Friday, marking the 24th time in 2017 that all three benchmarks simultaneously closed at records. All three indexes also sat all-time intraday highs in early trade Monday before losing ground.
More
Nikkei pushes to extend win streak to 16 sessions even as Dow, S&P runs are halted
Published: Oct 23, 2017 11:58 p.m. ET
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 Index NIK, +0.04% was pushing Tuesday
toward a 16th consecutive rise, having posted a 0.17% gain to the 21,733.10
level. The yen, meanwhile, rebounded against the U.S. dollar USDJPY, -0.05% overnight and gained a bit in the Asian session.
See: Japan’s Nikkei rises for a 15th straight session as Prime Minister Abe basks in electoral win
Also on the rise Tuesday in Asia were Hong Kong and Shanghai shares, with the Hang Seng HSI, +0.03% recently up 0.1% and the Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, +0.08% having risen slightly less.
A new Chinese leadership lineup is expected soon, as the Community Party congress wraps up. And more important for markets, U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to unveil his pick to lead the Federal Reserve “very, very” soon.
More
Here’s why one chart watcher says the stock market is finally ready for a pullback
Published: Oct 23, 2017 3:07 p.m. ET
There‘s no single technical indicator that reliably calls tops and bottoms.
But when certain conditions begin to agree, it can offer a valid signal,
according to analysts. A confluence of technical considerations have formed a “perfect condition” for a mild pullback for stocks, according to Katie Stockton, chief technical strategist at BTIG. And such a pullback would help set the stage for a longer term run in record territory, she said.
The S&P 500 Index SPX, -0.40% is traded 4 points, or 0.2%, lower to 2,570, after six straight weeks of gains, which culminated with a “gap” higher open on Friday. A gap occurs on a daily price chart when an asset opens above the previous session’s high.
It’s this gap, alongside technical indicators that are flashing significantly overbought conditions, that caught Stockton’s attention.
“Prolonged overbought conditions on their own do not indicate anything other than being overbought, and markets can stay overbought for some time,” said Stockton.
“But when such a gap appears after prolonged overbought conditions, it is exhaustive in nature and suggests that the short-term momentum is likely to waiver,” Stockton said.
“Overly bullish sentiment, as seen by CNN’s Fear and Greed indicator also tends to lead to pullbacks. That indicator peaked in early October,” she said.
CNN’s Fear and Greed Index stands at 91 on a scale of 0 to 100, with the 100 being extreme greed and zero being extreme fear. On Oct. 5 it hit 94.
“If we close lower sometime this week, then, the downside risk will increase,” Stockton said.
More
The stats that show why Trump vowed to keep 401(k) plans safe
Published: Oct 23, 2017 4:22 p.m. ET
President Trump on Monday insisted 401(k) plans are
untouchable amid reports suggesting Congress has floated the idea of slashing
how much Americans can contribute to retirement.
Talk of changes to 401(k) plans has generated lots of negative press and
a pushback from Wall Street. Some House Republicans reportedly considered
cutting the limit on 401(k) contributions as part of an effort to help pay for
massive tax cuts.
The contributions reportedly could be reduced to $2,400 a year from the
current ceiling of $18,000 for people under 50, and $24,000 for those 50 and
older. (The limit goes up to $18,500 to $24,500 in 2018.)
Yet such a move would undoubtedly be unpopular with voters, a fact the White House clearly grasps. Ditto for the Republican Party’s leadership. Not a single major Republican has stepped forward to confirm the proposal is being seriously considered.
Also Read: Time to worry? Trump promises ‘no change’ for 401(k) plans in tax overhaul
It’s easy to see why. More than 55 million Americans participate in active 401(k) plans and the number is growing rapidly. (Millions of others rely on Roth IRAs, traditional pension plans and other retirement vehicles).
Although very few Americans max out on their annual contributions, most 401(k) participants easily exceed the purported $2,400 cap.
The people who would be especially hurt would be the middle and upper-middle class, groups that helped carry Trump to an upset victory in 2016. He won the majority of voters who earn between $50,000 to $199,000 a year, exit polls show.
More
GE’s stock sinks to 4 1/2-year low after analyst throws in the towel
Published: Oct 23, 2017 4:16 p.m. ET
Shares of General Electric Co. sank Monday to close at a 4 1/2-year low, as
another Wall Street analyst threw in the towel on the industrial conglomerate,
saying liquidity concerns increase the likelihood of a dividend cut.The stock GE, -6.34% plunged $1.51, or 6.3%, on heavy volume, and was the biggest decliner within the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.23% The stock closed at the lowest level since May 2, 2013, while suffering the biggest one-day percentage decline since August 2011.
Trading volume reached 184.5 million shares, more than triple the full-day average, and enough to make the stock the most actively traded on major U.S. exchanges, according to FactSet.
The stock’s weakness follows a boomerang session on Friday, when GE reported its first earnings miss in 2 1/2 years, and slashed its outlook. The stock initially tumbled as much as 6.3% in morning trade that day, then bounced sharply to close up 1.1%.
RBC Capital analyst Deane Dray said he believes the stock’s intraday
recovery Friday, in the face of a “draconian” guidance cut and “brutal honesty”
by new CEO John Flannery about GE’s troubles could be “the first sign of a
cathartic bottoming” for the stock. Dray reiterated the outperform rating he’s
had on the stock for at least the past three years.
But analyst Nigel Coe at Morgan Stanley said it is “false” logic to
believe, after Flannery threw out the kitchen sink in his assessment of the
company, that things can’t still get worse.
He downgraded GE to underweight, after being no worse than equal weight
for at least the past three years, and cut his stock price target to $22 from
$25. Coe is now the third of the 20 analysts surveyed by FactSet to rate GE the
equivalent of sell.
Coe said his bearish outlook isn’t a reflection of the new CEO, who he
believes is the right man for the mission at hand.
“However, the scale of the challenges that he and his new team face are
greater than even we had imagined,” Coe wrote in a note to clients.
He now expects GE to announce a dividend cut at the Nov. 13 investor
gathering, to reflect “substantially lower earnings power” and given the sharp
increase in debt on its balance sheet over the past few years.
More
As economic globalization
gathers momentum, China and the United States have become highly interdependent
economically. Such economic relations would not enjoy sustained, rapid growth
if they were not based on mutual benefit or if they failed to deliver great
benefits to the United States.
Xi Jinping.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, more twists and turns in dieselgate. Who would want to buy a EU
diesel vehicle?
October 23, 2017 / 11:30 AM /
Updated 17 minutes ago
France probing possible Fiat obstruction over 'Dieselgate' affair - document
PARIS
(Reuters) - Carmaker Fiat Chrysler (FCHA.MI) is subject of a
French judicial inquiry over suspected obstruction of a French inquiry into the
‘Dieselgate’ affair, concerning devices used to cheat on tests over emissions,
according to a document obtained by Reuters.
Fiat declined to comment on the matter when contacted for comment.
Volkswagen’s (VOWG_p.DE) diesel emissions-test cheating exposed by U.S. regulators in 2015 triggered global public outrage, dozens more investigations into test-rigging by the wider industry and a push by some lawmakers to ban diesel and eventually all combustion engines.
October 23, 2017 / 12:30 AM /
Updated 30 minutes ago
London introduces vehicle pollution levy in new blow to diesel
LONDON (Reuters) - London brought in a new levy on the
oldest and most polluting cars entering the city center from Monday, almost
doubling how much motorists have to pay in the latest blow to diesel.
Drivers are already charged 11.50 pounds ($15) to enter the financial district and parts of west London under a congestion charge but those driving petrol and diesel vehicles typically registered before 2006 will need to pay an additional 10 pounds.
Since the 2015 Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE) emissions cheating scandal, a number of major cities including Madrid, Paris and Athens have announced plans particularly focused on cutting diesel emissions including bans, fines and restrictions.
The new charge could further encourage motorists to switch to greener models in one of Europe’s biggest cities as Mayor Sadiq Khan hopes the new levy to reduce toxicity, known as the T-Charge, will help save thousands of lives each year.
“The air is bad, but it’s also a killer,” he told Reuters.
“There are children in London whose lungs are underdeveloped. There are
adults who suffer a whole host of conditions caused by the poor quality air
from asthma to dementia to suffering strokes.”
Although the tax also applies to older petrol cars, diesel has been
particularly maligned over the last few years, with sales down 14 percent this
year in Europe’s second-biggest car market as petrol demand continues to rise.
“There’s a budget coming up and the government’s got to step up and
announce the diesel scrappage scheme to help families and businesses,” said
Khan, a politician from Britain’s main opposition Labour Party.
Britain’s Conservative government said this year that sales of new
diesel and petrol cars would be banned from 2040 but has stopped short of an
immediate program to incentivize drivers to trade in their old models.
Whether 40,000 Uber [UBER.UL] drivers, one in three of all private hire
vehicles working in the British capital, continue to operate will also have a
major impact on London’s streets in the years ahead.
The city’s transport regulator shocked the Silicon Valley taxi app last
month by stripping it of its license, but the company can continue to operate
until an appeals process is exhausted, which could take several years.
Following discussions between Uber’s global Chief Executive Dara
Khosrowshahi and Transport for London (TfL) Commissioner Mike Brown this month,
Khan said further talks could take place.
More
Singapore to Stop Adding Cars to City From February 2018
By Sebastian Tong
October 23, 2017, 10:08 AM GMT+1 October 23, 2017, 10:55 AM
GMT+1
Singapore, among the world’s most expensive places to own a vehicle, will
stop increasing the total number of cars on its roads next year. The government will cut the annual growth rate for cars and motorcycles to zero from 0.25 percent starting in February, the transport regulator said on Monday.
“In view of land constraints and competing needs, there is limited scope for further expansion of the road network," the Land Transport Authority said in a statement on its website. Roads already account for 12 percent of the city-state’s total land area, it said.
Smaller than New York City, land in Singapore is a precious commodity and officials want to ensure the most productive use of the remaining space. Its infrastructure is among the world’s most efficient and the government is investing S$28 billion ($21 billion) more on rail and bus transportation over the next five years, the regulator said.
Singapore requires car owners to buy permits -- called Certificates of Entitlement -- that allow holders to own their vehicles for 10 years. These permits are limited in supply and auctioned monthly by the government. At the most recent offering last week, the permit cost S$41,617 for the smallest vehicles.
The LTA said the zero-growth target will affect vehicles in Categories A, B and D under its permit system -- these include cars and motorcycles. The existing vehicle growth rate of goods vehicles and buses will remain at 0.25 percent per annum until March 2021 to give businesses time to improve the efficiency of their operations and reduce the number of commercial vehicles they require, LTA said.
These
changes are not expected to significantly affect the supply of permits since
the quota is determined largely by the number of vehicle deregistrations, the
regulator said. The limit on vehicle growth rate will be reviewed again in
2020.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Today, hmmm, too
clever by half.
Are those 80,000 pound trucks tailgating each other? Soon it may be perfectly normal — and safe
In this high-tech age, that may no longer be true. In fact, it might be just the opposite, and it might even end up saving you money.
A wave of new technology intended to make trucks safer — using radar, cameras and reflective light scanning — is sweeping the industry. By next year, much of it may be combined to put pairs of trucks on the road at a distance that before would not have been possible or safe.
One reason this matters to people who don’t drive tractor-trailers is found in the annual crash-death numbers from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration: Of the 4,317 people who died in crashes involving large trucks last year, 72 percent of them weren’t in trucks, but rather passenger cars. An additional 11 percent were pedestrians, bicyclists, roadway workers or police officers standing beside the highway, according to statistics released this month.
Trucks are involved in 11 percent of fatal crashes, although they make
up just 4 percent of vehicles on the road, according to the Federal Motor
Carrier Safety Administration. Ten percent of truck fatalities are rear-end
crashes — three times as many as rear-end collisions between two cars.
The pairing of tractor-trailers at a distance of 30 to 50 feet is called
platooning. Here’s why it’s significant — and how it might save you money.
Fans of bike racing and NASCAR are acquainted with what it means to get
into someone else’s slipstream. Whether in spandex or NASCAR fire-retardant
suits, racers know they can save energy or fuel by tucking close behind another
rider or race car.
Truckers know that, too.
Trucking companies spent about $90 billion on diesel fuel last year.
Firms spend the most paying drivers, but buying diesel often is the second-biggest
expense, sometimes amounting to 20 percent of operating costs.
A
truck tucked in the slipstream of another tractor-trailer can save 10 percent
on fuel. But the truck in front also will burn about 5 percent less fuel. Why?
Part of the drag on a truck plowing into the wind is caused by turbulent air
that tumbles off the top and sides of the trailer. When two trucks pair up
closely, the air flows more smoothly from the first to the second, reducing
that turbulence
---- Safety advocates, however, have several concerns about platooning trucks, said Jonathan Adkins, executive director of the Governors Highway Safety Association.
“The chief safety concern for passenger vehicles is how other drivers
will react to platoons,” Adkins said. “How fast should platoons be permitted to
travel? Will long platoons block exit lanes that were not designed for such
circumstances? Can we limit platoons to only the right lane, rather than
blocking multiple lanes of traffic? How can we prevent cars from trying to dangerously
‘cut in’ between platooning trucks?”
Adkins adds, “The good news is that the necessary research is being
conducted.”
Two big truck manufacturing companies, Navistar and Daimler, are
preparing to put platooning trucks on the road, but an upstart California firm
called Peloton (named after the bike-racing practice of utilizing the
slipstream) says it may leapfrog the big boys to have paired trucks on the road
next year.
More
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished September
DJIA: 22,405 +223 Up. NASDAQ: 6,496 +274 Up. SP500: 2,519 +179 Up.
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