Baltic Dry Index. 1320 +12 Brent Crude 55.82
“Men,
it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in
herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.”
Charles
Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and
the Madness of Crowds
Today escapism, everyone likes to escape from the harsh reality
of everyday life. Nowhere more so than in stock market bubbles. But one man’s
bubble, is the madness of crowds, to the herd. The herd never sees the bubble
until after the crash.
Below the markets bubble on, no one it seems is following
the melt down of Europe.
October 5, 2017 / 2:04 AM /
Updated an hour ago
Asian shares edge up slightly after strong U.S. data
TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares were a tad firmer on Thursday, taking
their cues from strong U.S. data although holiday-thinned trade and uncertainty
about the impact of recent hurricanes on the U.S. economy are likely to keep
investors cautious.
Japan’s Nikkei was almost flat while Australian shares ticked up 0.2
percent.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS
was almost flat with Hong Kong and South Korea, as well as mainland China,
closed for public holidays.
Wall Street’s three major stock indexes hit fresh highs on Wednesday as
did MSCI’s all-country world stock index .MIWD00000PUS.
The Institute for Supply Management’s index of non-manufacturing
activity rose to 59.8 in September, its highest reading since August 2005,
pointing to the resilience of the vast U.S. services sector despite disruption
from two powerful hurricanes.
The data came after a surge to 13-year high in the survey of
manufacturers as well as car sales at 12-year high, both released earlier this
week.
“Shares markets were supported as economic data was generally strong,”
said Masahiro Ichikawa, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management.
But analysts also cautioned that the data reflected temporary demand
stemming from repair and replacement spending in the aftermath of the
hurricanes.
Data from private payrolls processor ADP showed monthly hiring slowed to
an 11-month low of 135,000 [USADP=ECI], again due partly to disruptions from
hurricanes, although this was better than economists’ median forecast.
Economists expect Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, one of the most
closely watched pieces of economic data in financial markets, to show a similar
slowdown.
----The yield on Spanish bonds ES10YT=TWEB shot up to the highest level since March as prices fell, stretching the gap over German benchmarks to the widest in more than five months after Catalonia’s secessionist leader said the region will declare independence in “days.”
Spain's IBEX stock index .IBEX
posted its worst single-day loss in 15 months with a 2.85 percent decline on
Wednesday.
Catalonia will move to declare independence from Spain on
Monday while Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s government said Catalonia
must to “return to the path of law” before any negotiations could take place.
More
Some investors see signs stock market ‘on verge’ of a melt-up
Published: Oct 4, 2017 5:40 p.m. ET
‘Excessive credit and a timid Fed’ set the stage, analyst says
Some market veterans think stocks are at long last due for a meltup.“We make the case that despite the Fed’s intent, we’re on the verge of being in a melt-up stage, fueled by excessive credit and a timid Fed,” wrote technical analyst Jeff deGraaf, chairman of Renaissance Macro Research, in a Wednesday note.
Longtime market bull Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James, on Tuesday argued that the S&P 500 SPX, +0.12% in the wake of a Sept. 25 reversal to the upside, “now appears to be involved in a melt-up.”
The S&P followed that turnaround with a series of fresh records and is up more than 13% so far this year. The Dow Jones Industrial DJIA, +0.09% is up 14.7%. The S&P notched its fifth straight record close Tuesday, albeit with a gain of just 0.1%, matching a streak that ended in February. If the index closes at a record Wednesday, it will mark its longest streak since June 1997.
Saut pointed to the Investopedia definition of a meltup as a “dramatic and unexpected” rise in the performance of an asset class driven in part by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on the rise rather than by improvements in fundamentals. Melt-ups are often followed by market drops.
Saut, who noted that Raymond James’s short- and intermediate-term models had turned negative in early August, said the recent rally “was certainly unexpected by us.”
----De Graaf, meanwhile, argued that it is the strong data, and what he sees as a behind-the-curve Fed, that is setting the stage for a potential meltup.
He fears that favorable credit conditions are driving asset inflation and points to the gap between the yield on the 2-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD02Y, +0.01% which is near a 10-year high at 1.479%, and the fed-funds rate, which stands at 1% to 1.25% (see chart below).
Employment data and purchasing managers index readings are at levels
that both “generally imply overheating and a Fed aggressively pinching off the
excesses with higher rates,” he said. RenMac’s Master Employment Index is now
in the 90th to 100th percentile, which is historically negative for S&P 500
forward returns, he said, as it signals the economy is running too hot.
PMI readings are also in the top decile, which also points to a negative
impact on S&P returns three and 12 months forward, he said.
But the Fed’s preferred thermostat, inflation, remains in the bottom
quartile, he worries.
“That’s a little like judging the heat in a microwave by touching the
door,” he said, calling it the “wrong instrument for the wrong device.”
In Puerto Rico news, will President Trump really trash PR’s
bondholders? Will the richest nation on earth really gamble with its debt
reputation? True, there’s only an implied US guarantee on PR’s debt, but in trashing
PR’s bondholders, is President Trump playing Russian roulette with US sovereign
debt? Will the USA one day trash its own bond holders?
Trump's Gambit on Puerto Rico Debt Is Classic Emerging Markets
By James Crombie
4
October 2017, 13:09 GMT+1
President
Donald Trump’s starting point for repaying Puerto Rico’s $74 billion in debt --
zero -- isn’t just hallmark behavior from the man who wrote “The Art of the
Deal.” It recalls some classic emerging-market sovereign debt
restructurings of recent years.
Think
Argentina, which long argued that its ability to repay $100 billion in debt was
next to nothing. Every time the populist president spoke about the country’s
liabilities, creditors were cast as “vultures” and the other main party trying
to bring Argentina in line was dubbed “The International Misery Fund.” And
there’s Ecuador, where populist President Rafael Correa rose to power in 2007
on an anti-investor platform and declared the national debt illegitimate.
True, Puerto Rico is a commonwealth and the liabilities are municipal bonds, not U.S. sovereign debt, but Trump’s suggestion that “you can say goodbye to that” debt bears the hallmarks of a populist leader facing tumult in the streets.
It doesn’t necessarily mean that’s the final offer, though. Those worried that the president will actually “wipe out” the debt can take some comfort from the eventual deals. Correa’s government wound up paying 35 cents on those “illegitimate” bonds. In Buenos Aires, even though it took more than a decade to work out,
Argentina regained access to international capital markets by paying back about 25 cents on the dollar.
That’s a lot more than zero, though maybe much less than what Argentina could have paid. And that’s the art of the deal.
We close for the day with flu news. I can only hope the
Wizards of Oxford know what they’re doing, and aren’t releasing a flu vaccine
with unintended consequences.
Universal flu vaccine to begin human trials this winter
Michael Irving 5 hours agoThe flu virus is a crafty foe, constantly adapting to our best weapons. It's an arms race every year, as scientists need to go back to the drawing board and predict how the virus might change. But now we might be gaining the upper hand in the war: a universal flu vaccine has been cleared for widespread human trials in the UK that should be much more effective at destroying different forms of the virus.
The flu might seem common and largely harmless, but the virus is not to be underestimated: the illness spreads easily and in severe cases can annually cause up to half a million deaths worldwide, particularly in people over the age of 65. Every year, it's a race for scientists to develop and deliver vaccines to fight the strains predicted by the World Health Organization to be the most likely to circulate. Unfortunately, the constantly-adapting bug often has other plans, with different strains spreading and undermining the vaccine's effectiveness – that's why you might still get the flu after getting the jab.
Previous research into a universal flu vaccine has uncovered the mechanism by which immune cells remember which strains they've already encountered, and an antibody that's particularly good at neutralizing different strains.
----Human trials are due to begin in the UK this winter, involving an expected sample of at least 500 people over the age of 65, since they are the most at-risk group. Of those, 25 people will be selected to undergo extra blood tests, receiving the regular annual immunization along with either the new vaccine or a placebo shot, in order to compare the two.
"Every year, flu in older adults causes serious illness and sometimes death," says Sarah Gilbert, Professor of Vaccinology at Oxford and co-founder of Vaccitech. "We want to improve the situation, but in order to do that we need volunteers to help us test a new vaccine. If you are invited to take part, please consider doing so."
Source: Oxford University
http://newatlas.com/universal-flu-vaccine-human-trials/51606/?utm_source=Gizmag+Subscribers&utm_campaign=6d29eac94f-UA-2235360-4&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_65b67362bd-6d29eac94f-90625829
“We
find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object, and go
mad in its pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed
with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new
folly more captivating than the first.”
Charles
Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions
& the Madness of Crowds
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, after years of tax abuse by Juncker’s Luxembourg, plus the
Republic of Ireland, the EUSSR finally
has had enough. Spain v Catalonia drags on. Nothing good for either party lies
ahead in confrontation, nor for the incompetent, impotent, useless EU and EC.
Below, news from the inmate run asylum aka the dying EUSSR.
October 3, 2017 / 2:40 PM /
Updated 15 hours ago
EU to reform sales tax, prepares changes to rates
STRASBOURG (Reuters) - The European Commission will propose on Wednesday
changes to the way sales taxes are levied in the European Union, in an effort
to close tax loopholes and eliminate fraud, a draft document said.
The new measures on value-added tax would mostly tackle frauds in which
companies pocket VAT revenues from cross-border sales instead of paying them to
the local government.
The move would also end the practice of companies avoiding VAT by basing
themselves in countries with low VAT rates. They will now, as a general rule,
have to pay the VAT charged by the country where their products are sold.
That principle has already been established by temporary regulations.
The proposed reform would make that permanent.
“This definitive VAT system will be based on the principle of taxation
in the member state of destination,” the document, seen by Reuters, said.
The proposed changes are expected to permanently end tax advantages for
supplier companies that serve the EU market from a low-tax country, like
Amazon, which is based in Luxembourg.
The EU executive said the changes would reduce the need for a harmonised
VAT rate policy. By November it will make new proposals to reform VAT rates,
giving states more power to set them.
The move is also aimed at reducing scams that deprive EU states of large
amounts of VAT revenues. Often such fraud involves companies collecting tax
when a product is sold but not paying it to the government of its home country.
Collecting the tax in the country where a product is sold would eliminate that
fraud.
October 4, 2017 / 10:32 AM /
Updated 5 hours ago
EU takes Ireland to court for not claiming Apple tax windfall
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Commission said on Wednesday it was taking Ireland to the European Court of Justice for its failure to recover up to 13 billion euros (11.56 billion pounds) of tax due from Apple Inc (AAPL.O), a move labelled as “regrettable” by Dublin.
The Commission ordered the U.S. tech giant in August 2016 to
pay the unpaid taxes as it ruled the firm had received illegal state aid, one
of a number of deals the EU has targeted between multinationals and usually
smaller EU states.
“More than one year after the Commission adopted this decision,
Ireland has still not recovered the money,” EU Competition Commissioner
Margrethe Vestager said, adding that Dublin had not even sought a portion of
the sum.
“We of course understand that recovery in certain cases may be more
complex than in others, and we are always ready to assist. But member states
need to make sufficient progress to restore competition,” she added.
The Commission said the deadline for Ireland to implement its decision
had been Jan. 3 this year and that, until the aid was recovered, the company
continued to benefit from an illegal advantage. Apple is appealing the case.
Vestager, who was also announcing a demand for Amazon (AMZN.O) to pay about 250 million euros in taxes to Luxembourg, declined to comment on possible penalties on Ireland if it were not to comply with an eventual ECJ ruling against it.
Ireland’s finance ministry said it had never accepted the
Commission’s analysis in the Apple state aid decision, but was committed to
collecting the money due pending Dublin’s own appeal of the ruling.
MoreCatalan Leader Keeps Spain Guessing on Independence Declaration
By Charles Penty and Esteban Duarte
Catalan President Carles Puigdemont kept the rest of Spain
guessing on if and when he will declare independence, prolonging the
uncertainty over the breakaway region’s ultimate card in its confrontation with
the government in Madrid.
Speaking in a televised statement on Wednesday night, Puigdemont
reiterated an offer for mediated talks while attacking King Felipe VI’s
condemnation 24 hours earlier of Catalonia’s illegal referendum on Sunday.
The regional government in Barcelona will soon apply the results of its
makeshift vote, Puigdemont said, though he stopped short of saying how or when
he would trigger the process to leave Spain.
“We will show our best face in coming days when our institutions apply
the results of the referendum,” Puigdemont said, striking a less
confrontational tone after a day of escalating rhetoric.
It buys some time in what’s already the biggest constitutional crisis
since democracy was restored in Spain in the late 1970s. Catalonia
accounts for a fifth of Spain’s economic output and support for
independence had dipped during the country’s recovery since the European debt
crisis.
The prospect of secession by the region is now piling pressure on Prime
Minister Mariano Rajoy and his minority government and unnerving Spanish
financial markets. The premier has been seeking cross-party political support
for his hard-line approach after police stormed polling stations and triggered
mass demonstrations. The next move could involve suspending the regional
government and implementing direct rule from Madrid.
More
Europe Could See Another Brexit-Like Rupture—Beyond Spain
Rumblings in Catalonia
may only be the beginning. Tensions are growing in Eastern Europe.
By John
Micklethwait 5 October 2017
----Now, another
rupture may be sneaking up on Europe, driven by a similar mixture of pent-up
anger and short-term political maneuvering. This one is between the old West
European democratic core of the EU, led by Merkel and increasingly by Emmanuel
Macron, who are keen to integrate the euro zone, and
the populist
authoritarians of Eastern Europe, who dislike Brussels. This time the arguments
are ones about political freedom and national sovereignty.
However, Babis is plainly opposed to increased European integration of the sort that Macron wants and is also against Brussels meddling in Eastern Europe. That means that, whatever the subtleties of Babis’s relatively centrist brand of populism, he is likely to be bundled in with Viktor Orban of Hungary and Jaroslaw Kaczynski of Poland as part of Europe’s authoritarian fringe.
Kaczynski is not the formal leader of Poland, but he runs the right-wing Law & Justice Party that holds both the presidency and the premiership (which he’s delegated to others). A fierce critic of Merkel, especially on immigration, he’s at almost permanent war with the EU, with his battles ranging from institutional—after Brexit, he called for powers to be returned from Brussels—to the personal—he tried (unsuccessfully) to stop his more conciliatory fellow Pole, Donald Tusk, from becoming president of the European Council. For the EU’s part, Frans Timmermans, a European Commission vice president, is formally investigating Law & Justice’s judicial “reforms,” which look like an attempt to clear out any unsympathetic judges, and its interference in the press. At its worst, this could mean triggering Article 7, which would suspend Poland’s voting rights on the European Council.
More
“Nations, like
individuals, cannot become desperate gamblers with impunity. Punishment is sure
to overtake them sooner or later.”
Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of
Crowds
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Asphalt helps lithium batteries charge faster
Lab finds asphalt-nanoribbon anode more efficient, resistant to dendrites
Date:
October 2, 2017
Source:
Rice University
Summary:
A touch of asphalt may be the secret to high-capacity lithium batteries that
charge up to 20 times faster than commercial lithium-ion batteries, according
to scientists.
A touch of asphalt may be the secret to high-capacity lithium metal
batteries that charge 10 to 20 times faster than commercial lithium-ion
batteries, according to Rice University scientists.
The Rice lab of chemist James Tour developed anodes comprising porous
carbon made from asphalt that showed exceptional stability after more than 500
charge-discharge cycles. A high-current density of 20 milliamps per square
centimeter demonstrated the material's promise for use in rapid charge and
discharge devices that require high-power density. The finding is reported in
the American Chemical Society journal ACS Nano.
"The capacity of these batteries is enormous, but what is equally
remarkable is that we can bring them from zero charge to full charge in five
minutes, rather than the typical two hours or more needed with other
batteries," Tour said.
The Tour lab previously used a derivative of asphalt -- specifically,
untreated gilsonite, the same type used for the battery -- to capture
greenhouse gases from natural gas. This time, the researchers mixed asphalt
with conductive graphene nanoribbons and coated the composite with lithium
metal through electrochemical deposition.
The lab combined the anode with a sulfurized-carbon cathode to make full
batteries for testing. The batteries showed a high-power density of 1,322 watts
per kilogram and high-energy density of 943 watt-hours per kilogram.
Testing revealed another significant benefit: The carbon mitigated the
formation of lithium dendrites. These mossy deposits invade a battery's
electrolyte. If they extend far enough, they short-circuit the anode and
cathode and can cause the battery to fail, catch fire or explode. But the
asphalt-derived carbon prevents any dendrite formation.
An earlier project by the lab found that an anode of graphene and carbon
nanotubes also prevented the formation of dendrites. Tour said the new
composite is simpler.
"While the capacity between the former and this new battery is
similar, approaching the theoretical limit of lithium metal, the new
asphalt-derived carbon can take up more lithium metal per unit area, and it is
much simpler and cheaper to make," he said. "There is no chemical
vapor deposition step, no e-beam deposition step and no need to grow nanotubes
from graphene, so manufacturing is greatly simplified."
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished September
DJIA: 22,405 +223 Up. NASDAQ: 6,496 +274 Up. SP500: 2,519 +179 Up.
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