Baltic Dry Index. 1328 -28 Brent Crude 55.89
Harold
MacMillan
Today’s
big story is the appalling, senseless massacre that occurred in Las Vegas. As of the time of writing the latest figure
stand a 59 dead, and 527 injured. Casualty figures that far exceed the death
toll from the two recent hurricanes in the Caribbean. But with media everywhere
leading with the tragedy, we will turn instead to the other senseless, man-made
tragedy unfolding in Spain – Catalonia.
Whether
the Catalonian referendum was legal or not, the Spanish government’s fascist
like response was overkill and has probably altered events on the ground for
good. If there wasn’t a majority for
independence from the Kingdom of Spain before the referendum, there almost
certainly is now. Faced with such repression and anti-democratic thuggery, the
European Union is supposed to suspend Spain’s voting rights, and put Spain’s
government on notice of other sanctions. The trembling EUSSR bureaucracy will
do no such thing. The Eurocrats and apparatchiks fear bringing the whole EUSSR
house of cards crashing down if Spain splits.
But a
split, amicable or not, now seems inevitable. Better a negotiated agreed split
like The Czech Republic and Slovakia, than a protracted, bitter legal fight,
that drags on for months or years, generating violence, increased regional
hatred, that whatever happens leaves two neighbouring peoples at each other’s
throats.
But with
Germany still in disarray from its election, President Macron sinking without
trace in French polls, Italy seemingly headed towards an anti-establishment
government next year, and Her Majesty’s Government of GB incompetents totally
irrelevant, don’t look for constructive leadership on this issue from Europe.
America has more pressing troubles on its mind, and North Korea hasn’t gone
away.
Below,
with Europe’s blue touch paper already lit, will anyone have the brains to put
it out? Euros anyone? Brexit now, before
the whole of continental Europe blows up.
History is apt to judge harshly those who sacrifice tomorrow for
today.
Harold
MacMillan
October 2, 2017 / 8:23 AM
Catalan leader calls for international mediation in Madrid stand-off
MADRID/BARCELONA (Reuters) - The secessionist leader of Catalonia called
for international mediation on Monday in the region’s dispute with Madrid, a
day after hundreds of people were hurt as police swung truncheons and fired
rubber bullets to disrupt an independence referendum.
Results showed voters had overwhelmingly backed independence in the
referendum, which Spain has ruled illegal and which opponents of secession
mostly boycotted.
The vote was valid and must be implemented, said Catalan leader Carles
Puigdemont.
“It is not a domestic matter,” he told a news conference on Monday. He
said it was “obvious that we need mediation”, adding: “We don’t want a
traumatic break ... We want a new understanding with the Spanish state.”
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy met leaders of other political parties and
his conservative government issued a statement saying he was seeking a joint
response to the crisis. He also spoke to other European leaders and thanked
them for supporting Spain’s constitutional order, the statement said.
----Elsewhere, life in the city returned to near normal, but the violence had clearly left people in shock and may have hardened attitudes among those who favour independence.
“There is no possibility of dialogue now with the government. We are
clear on that,” said a 51-year-old retired worker who declined to give his
name.
Spain’s wealthiest region, wedged in the northeast on the Mediterranean
coast below the mountainous border with France, has its own language and
culture, and a growing minority there have nurtured hopes of independence for
years. Madrid says the constitution prohibits secession and is non-negotiable.
The crisis could deepen further if the Catalan regional parliament uses
the vote as justification for a unilateral declaration of independence, as
foreseen in the referendum law enacted by the region but rejected by Madrid.
With 95 percent of the vote counted, authorities said the “Yes” vote
stood at 90.1 percent, on a turnout of 2.26 million out of 5.34 million
registered voters.
Polls before Sunday’s vote put support for secession at only around 40
percent, but most opponents were expected to boycott the vote. The Spanish
government has taken the risk that its violent crackdown could increase support
for the secessionists.
----Other
European leaders have mostly shied away from commenting on what they consider
an internal matter, although some have expressed alarm at the violence.
----Any
move to impose central control over the region of 7.5 million people risks
hurting Spain’s emergence from years of recession. Financial markets were
rattled. Spain’s borrowing costs surged and its blue-chip stock index fell 1.2
percent.
More
October 2, 2017 / 11:26 AM
EU urges Spain to talk to Catalans, condemns violence
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The EU executive urged Spain to talk to Catalan
separatists on Monday, condemning violence but also calling for unity, a day
after Spanish police beat people trying to vote in an independence referendum
in Catalonia.
Edging into a minefield it has tried hard to avoid, despite a danger for
stability in Spain and the euro zone, the European Commission issued a balanced
statement that voiced trust in Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s ability
to manage this “internal matter” but also called for dialogue and reminded
Madrid of a need to respect citizens’ basic rights.
“We call on all relevant players to now move very swiftly from
confrontation to dialogue. Violence can never be an instrument in politics,”
the Commission said in a statement read out by chief spokesman Margaritis
Schinas, shortly before Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont asked for EU mediation
with Madrid.
Pressed by reporters, Schinas declined to say specifically that the EU
was condemning Spanish police tactics, though it was their actions at polling
stations on Sunday which mostly shocked fellow Europeans and generated public
pressure that saw a number of other governments including Germany call for more
dialogue.
Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker was to speak to Rajoy later on
Monday after being in contact over the weekend, though the EU spokesman
declined to say whether the Union would mediate in what would be an unusual
step for Brussels to take within one of the bloc’s own member states.
The Commission statement also supported Madrid’s line that the vote,
which Catalan leaders said recorded a huge result for independence, was “not
legal” under Spain’s constitution.
Brussels has in the past given little or no encouragement to separatist
movements inside the European Union, whether those of the Catalans, Scots,
Flemings or others.
“These are times for unity and stability, not divisiveness and
fragmentation,” it said. Any breakaway state would have to leave the EU and
re-apply to join, the statement also noted.
Even that could only happen if the split were amicable. This
distinguishes Scotland, which held a referendum agreed with London in 2014,
from Catalonia, where Spain’s Constitutional Court has said the 1978
constitution forbids secession.
More
Political Risk Makes a Comeback in Europe
By Viktoria Dendrinou and Nikos Chrysoloras
If the wind really is “back in Europe’s sails,” as European Commission
President Jean-Claude Juncker put it last month, then it’s still unclear where
the bloc may be heading.
The beatings Spanish police handed out to separatists in the region of
Catalonia at the weekend took investors by surprise, raising questions about
whether the instability that has plagued the European Union for the best part
of the last decade is really over.
Regional identity politics is one of multiple issues that have been
building up under the radar of political establishment in
Europe, according to Carsten Nickel, a managing director at Teneo
Intelligence in Brussels. The result is that just as the EU looked to have left
its crisis years behind, the threat of more turmoil has leapt back onto the
agenda.
“On the question of whether political risk is back in the EU, the answer
is it never went away,” Nickel said. “The real work is ahead of us,
whether you look at domestic reforms in France, Brexit negotiations or
coalition talks in Germany.”
----Yet the events in Catalonia are a reminder of the risks the bloc still faces, especially with uncertainty over the outcome of Brexit negotiations and elections approaching in Austria and then Italy, countries where the rise of euro-skeptic candidates could fan financial and political instability for the whole bloc.
In Italy, a new level of uncertainty is looming in the third-biggest economy in the euro area, where political instability is a way of life. With elections due early next year, the populist Five Star Movement is virtually tied in polls with the Democratic Party of Prime Minister Paulo Gentiloni. Luigi Di Maio, Five Star’s 31-year-old candidate for the premiership, has called for a referendum on Italy’s euro membership as “a last resort” to force EU reform.
Before then, Italy faces its own, more limited test of unity. The anti-immigrant Northern League party is planning to stage an online “referendum” on Oct. 22 on more autonomy for the wealthy Lombardy and Veneto regions, with powers over taxes a key demand.
More
In market bubble
news, it was all bubble on, buy more. China’s upcoming Communist Party meeting
is the new Trumponomics. What could possibly go wrong?
Stocks Add Gains, Dollar Climbs on Economic Cheer: Markets Wrap
By Adam Haigh
Strong
factory data and the prospect for American tax cuts boosted confidence in the
global economy, lifting the dollar and emboldening bulls who drove U.S.
equities to fresh record highs and pushed up shares in Asia.
Japan’s
benchmark stock gauge is heading for its highest close in more than two years,
bolstered in part by a weaker yen. Chinese shares in Hong Kong jumped the most since November after
the People’s Bank of China said it would cut the reserve requirement ratio for
some loans and the nation’s official factory gauge rose to a five-year high.
The U.S. currency climbed against all the major counterparts, sending the
Bloomberg dollar index to its strongest since July. Gold was little changed,
while oil slipped closer to $50 a barrel.
----Speculators,
who built up a large short position against the dollar amid its decline, have
kept adding bearish bets even as the currency rebounded, as seen in the chart
below. One potential consequence of that is a classic short squeeze if traders
are able to drive the dollar high enough to trigger so-called stop-loss points.
The greenback took a sudden leg up in the Asian morning against the euro and yen.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts see the dollar as having some further
room to run, thanks to solid growth prospects and the chance that Federal
Reserve interest-rate hikes will prove more aggressive than market players
currently anticipate. Goldman sees the greenback rising particularly against
the euro, which could be hurt by political concerns amid the Spanish woes over
Catalonia and elections in Austria and Italy in coming months.
The latest news on the U.S.-North Korean standoff, that the White House
rules out talks with the country, had little impact on markets.
More
Six similarities between today and 1987, when the Dow plummeted 23% in one day
Published: Oct 3, 2017 12:01 a.m. ET
It was 30 years ago this month. I had millions of dollars of my own money
invested in the stock market. Other investors did too, and everyone was making
money. On Oct. 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.68% fell 22.6%. The S&P 500 Index SPX, +0.39% dropped 20.5%. It’s known as Black Monday, or the Crash of ’87.
Three decades on, could the stock market fall at a similar rate? If so, what should you do to protect yourself? These are the key questions investors ought to ponder now that U.S. stocks are collectively trading at record highs. History does not always repeat, but we must still learn from history. Let’s explore.
The similarities
Please click here for a table showing the six similarities in the stock market between today and 1987.
The first similarity, but not others, needs some explanation. In 1987, money managers were buying stocks with impunity because they thought the stock market was a one-way street — large profits and little risk. They were sold portfolio insurance by the wizards of Wall Street that, in theory, should have protected them against losses. Portfolio insurance was accomplished through derivatives such as options and futures. With the benefit of hindsight, we now know that portfolio insurance not only failed to protect them, but it also accelerated selling.
A similar danger exists now in the popularity of exchange traded funds (ETFs), especially large flows of money in ETFs by passive investors. At this time, most investors do not have any appreciation for the risks in passive ETF investing, just as when, in 1987, most portfolio managers had no appreciation for the risks in portfolio insurance.
When it comes to sentiment in the stock market, investors need to be careful. Those numbers, such as those from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), are based on surveys. At The Arora Report, our research shows that in this bull market, there are significant differences between what investors say and what they do. For this reason, the proprietary sentiment measures that we use at The Arora Report in our complex timing model give heavier weight to what investors are actually doing and less weight to what they are saying.
More
It is,
of course, a trite observation to say that we live "in a period of
transition." Many people have said this at many times. Adam may well have
made the remark to Eve on leaving the Garden of Eden.
Harold
MacMillan.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, how the left party politicise a disaster. Presented without need
for comment.
No, Trump Didn't Botch the Puerto Rico Crisis
A Q&A with former
Navy Captain Jerry Hendrix on smart preparations the White House
and Pentagon made for the looming storm.
by Tobin Harshaw 30 September 2017, 12:00 GMT+1
"Send in the cavalry."That was the advice retired Army General Russel Honore gave President Donald Trump this week about responding to the devastation of Puerto Rico by Hurricane Maria. And Honore's opinion was well informed:
In 2005, President George W. Bush sent him to bail out New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina's 30-foot storm surge overran its levees. And by Honore's judgment, Trump has fallen short: "This is a hit on White House decision making," he told Bloomberg News.
Plenty of others piled on, including a pair of Trump's 2016 presidential opponents:
President Trump, Sec. Mattis, and DOD should send the Navy, including the USNS Comfort, to Puerto Rico now. These are American citizens. https://t.co/J2FVg4II0n
— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) September
24, 2017
"The logistics chain is broken and only the U.S. military can stand it up," insisted Florida Senator Marco Rubio. "And it is truly my hope that at some point in the next few hours the generals that are down there now, someone with ... two stars, or three stars on their shoulder, will be able to be the ultimate decision maker until we get basic logistics."
So, how fair were such criticisms?
Taken literally, Clinton's weren't. By the time she tweeted, the Navy had long been coordinating with the Federal Emergency Management Agency and several Marine amphibious ships were operating off the coast. However, it wasn’t until after her comment that the White House ordered that the Comfort, one of the Navy's two floating hospitals, head for the island. As for Rubio, we'll have to see how the logistical issues play out in the days ahead.
But to look at the larger context of the entire relief operation, I decided to talk to someone whose experience rivals that of General Honore: retired Navy Captain Jerry Hendrix. Now a senior fellow with the Center for a New American Security, Hendrix served for decades both on the high seas and in high-level staff jobs, including with the Chief of Naval Operations' Executive Panel and the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy's Irregular Warfare Quadrennial Defense Review. Few people know more about military history than Hendrix, who has degrees from Purdue, Harvard, the Naval Postgraduate School and a Ph.D. from Kings College in London. Little wonder that in 2012 was named the service's director of naval history.
Here is a lightly edited transcript of our discussion:
---- TH: So, it seems like everybody has blasted Trump administration's response to the Puerto Rico crisis. Has that criticism been fair?
JH: No, I don’t think so. First of all, there was a fair amount of
anticipatory action that is not being recognized. Amphibious ships including
the light amphibious carriers Kearsarge and Wasp and the amphibious landing
ship dock Oak Hill were at sea and dispatched to Puerto Rico ahead of the
hurricane’s impact.
These are large ships that have large flight decks to land and dispatch
heavy-lift CH-53 helicopters to and from disaster sites. They also have big
well-decks -- exposed surfaces that are lower than the fore and aft of the ship
-- from which large landing craft can be dispatched to shore carrying over 150
tons of water, food and other supplies on each trip. These are actually the
ideal platforms for relief operations owing to their range of assets. The
ships, due to their designs to support Marine amphibious landings in war zones,
also have hospitals onboard to provide medical treatment on a large scale. That
these ships were in the area should be viewed as a huge positive for the
administration and the Department of Defense.
TH: On the flip side, others say that sending the hospital
ship Comfort was unnecessary -- purely symbolic and possibly counterproductive
-- given that the number of hospital beds was not the problem. What's your
opinion?
JH: Comfort can add to the solution, but her lack of well-decks and large
boats as well as her limited support of helicopter operations means that she
has to go alongside a pier to be effective. In the immediate aftermath of a
huge storm, pulling into a port that has not been surveyed for underwater
obstacles like trees or cables or other refuse is an invitation to either put a
hole your ship or foul your propellers or rudders.
That being said, there was a broad misunderstanding of the Comfort’s
mission. She is not an “emergency response ship” but rather a hospital ship.
She was built to accompany a large military force into a war zone as part of a
buildup over time of capabilities to respond to wartime injuries. She is manned
by military and civilian mariners as well as active and reserve medical
personnel. It takes time to both man and equip her for sea. Given that there
was no certainty where the hurricane would hit, it doesn’t make sense to have
readied her prior to its impact.
It is revelatory of where the U.S. group mind is now that when the
American public thinks about ships like the Comfort and Mercy, they
automatically think of them as part of a civilian emergency response force
rather than quietly considering the type of potential conflict that would
require a hospital ship with 1,000 beds. I can tell you that when I think of
those ships, I internally shudder at the thought of the type of conflict they were
intended to support.
Morehttps://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-09-30/no-trump-didn-t-botch-the-puerto-rico-crisis
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Tesla Powerwalls + Solar Panels Sent To Puerto Rico
October 1st, 2017 by Cynthia Shahan
Puerto
Rico has been ravaged and is facing significant loss of human life and harm to
human life, among other things. Lack of drinking water, dehydration, food
scarcity, and so many other problems are facing the Americans living
there. The electric power grid in Puerto Rico is gone.
In a humanitarian effort to help the devastated
and threatened population, one of the companies stepping in to help is Tesla.
Bloomberg
reports that Tesla is sending hundreds of its Powerwall
battery systems to be paired with solar panels. The joint systems will help the
battered island territory restore electric power. The company said that some of
the systems are already there. Others are on the way.
Time is of the essence, and Puerto Rico has
needed more aid than it has gotten. Bloomberg continues: “The company
has employees on the ground to install them and is working with local
organizations to identify locations.” In case you haven’t been paying close
attention, the island is still largely
without electricity.
More
Roll-up solar panels power Flat Holm island
Roll-up solar panels are being used to help power an island off the
coast of Cardiff.
The Rapid Roll system allows flexible solar panels to be unrolled like a
carpet from a trailer in two minutes.
The pioneering technology aims to meet demands from increased tourism
and environmental and logistical challenges on Flat Holm.
The hope is for the technology in future to offer a solution in areas
hit by natural disasters like hurricanes.
This is the first time the system has been used in Wales and it is the
first long-term deployment of the technology anywhere in the UK.
The technology was developed by John Hingley, managing director at
Renovagen, based in Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire.
He came up with the idea of scaling up the concept of mobile solar
technology while away travelling five years ago.
By making the panels rollable, a much larger power capacity can fit into
a smaller box.
So a 4x4's trailer can take enough solar panelling to power a 120-bed
mobile clinic or to desalinate 25,000 litres of sea water every day.
"Compared with traditional rigid panels, we can fit up to 10 times
the power in this size container," said Mr Hingley.
Flat Holm in the Bristol Channel, a site of special scientific interest for its plants and birdlife, was once the location for a cholera sanatorium and was where Guglielmo Marconi transmitted the first wireless signals over open sea in 1897.
It does not have a mains supply and the island previously relied on a combination of diesel generators and older style solar panels to provide electricity.
According to Flat Holm team leader Natalie Taylor, providing electricity for the island is a challenge.
"As we promote the island more and we get more visitors here, there's going to be a lot more demand for electricity so it's really important that we've got a really high functioning system that can provide for those people," she said.
More
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished September
DJIA: 22,405 +223 Up. NASDAQ: 6,496 +274 Up. SP500: 2,519 +179 Up.
Hello,
ReplyDeleteWhether the Catalonian referendum was legal or not, the Spanish government’s fascist like response was overkill and has probably altered events on the ground for good.The technology was developed by John Hingley, managing director at Renovagen, based in Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire.With the benefit of hindsight, we now know that portfolio insurance not only failed to protect them, but it also accelerated selling.Thank you for your post.....
----http://onedaytop.com/bmw-produces-monster-remote-charging-pad-car/