Saturday, 5 December 2015

Weekend Update 05/12/2015 – More Than A Wobble!

Set in Camelot, Arthur and Guinevere have a daughter. At the Blessing of Princess Aurora, Janet Yellen arrives and sets an evil curse on the child, forcing the child into paying off the national debt….
Apologies to Richard Gauntlett.

We open with OPEC’s war on America and Canada. If 2015 was a rout for American frackers, it’s “take no prisoners” time in 2016. Get ready for the bust of all busts in America’s oil patch. And we haven’t even got to one extra barrel of Iranian oil yet. This winter only keep the car half full.  A spectacular run of fracking bankruptcies comes next.

"We shouldn't pour cold water on everything. We, the eight or nine players in global investment banking, have a very good future."

Deutsche Bank, CEO Josef Ackermann. Davos, January 2007.

OPEC Offers No Hope for End to Oil Slump as Target Removed

December 4, 2015 — 5:09 PM GMT Updated on December 5, 2015 — 5:10 AM GMT
OPEC signaled no respite from the global oil glut that has driven prices to a six-year low.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will keep pumping about 31.5 million barrels a day, the group’s President Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu said Friday after a meeting of ministers in Vienna. Members set aside their previous daily output target of 30 million barrels, a ceiling breached for 18 months. OPEC will wait until June to decide on a new limit, Secretary General Abdalla El-Badri said.

“Why should OPEC alone sacrifice its part in the market,” Iraq’s Oil Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi told reporters after the meeting. “Americans don’t have any ceiling, Russians don’t have any ceiling, why should OPEC have a ceiling?”

Guided by its biggest producer Saudi Arabia, OPEC has increased output in an oversupplied market in a bid to force higher-cost producers to scale back their operations. A proposal Thursday from Venezuela for a 5 percent cut in the group’s production went nowhere as Iran joined the ranks of members refusing to accept any curbs.

“The volume-maximizing strategy goes on for OPEC,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG in Zurich. “It’s at least better to give up a useless ceiling. The burden to adjust supply remains on non-OPEC producers.”

Crude slumped about 38 percent in the last year, with global benchmark Brent crude headed for its lowest annual average in a decade after reaching a six-year low of $42.23 on Aug. 24. Brent fell 1.9 percent to $43 a barrel Friday, while West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 2.7 percent to $39.97.

----After Friday’s OPEC decision “everyone does whatever they want,” said Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh. “I think there will be a decision about how to act on the market in the second quarter of 2016,” after Iran has restored some of its oil shipments, he said.

After Friday’s OPEC decision “everyone does whatever they want,” said Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh. “I think there will be a decision about how to act on the market in the second quarter of 2016,” after Iran has restored some of its oil shipments, he said.

Iran won’t accept any production curbs until it restores about 1 million barrels a day of output after the removal of international sanctions next year over its nuclear program, he said. Saudi Arabia said it didn’t feel obliged to cut production, which is running close to a record.

And in America, worrying signs of a new recession arriving.

There Go The Truckers: Unprecedented 59% Plunge In November Heavy Truck Orders

by ZeroHedge • 

The rout beneath the relative calm of the market surface continues today as another sector has gotten crushed today in reaction to the domestic and global collapse in trade, the spreading domestic manufacturing recession and the bursting of the commodity bubble: truckers, and especially the heaviest, Class 8 trucks, those with a gross weight over 33K pounds, those which make up the backbone of U.S. trade infrastructure and logistics.

----What happened? Nothing short of a complete disintegration in the heavy trucking sector. Wells Fargo explains:

November Class 5-8 orders decreased 40% yr/yr and 26% from October. The yr/yr decline was the eighth consecutive month of Class 5-8 contraction. The decline yr/yr was driven by weaker Class 8 order intake.  
Class 8 orders of 16,600 were below our channel check based 22,000-25,000 expectation, dropped 59% yr/yr and 36% from October (vs. the ten-year average 7% decrease in November from October), and was the weakest order month on a seasonally adjusted basis since August 2010. Clearly, November 
Class 8 orders slowed to weak levels and were beneath expectations. We estimate the Class 8 order intake translates into a Class 8 backlog decline of about 6-8% from October and 15-18% yr/yr. Further, we estimate that backlog to inventory fell to 1.6-1.7 from October’s 1.82 and remained beneath 2 for the third consecutive month.

Fundamentals appear to be progressively negative for future production trends, especially combining the sub-2 backlog to inventory ratio with a low likelihood for significant near-term order increase, given issues that tend to weigh on orders are becoming more prevalent according to our channel check (i.e., shorter order to delivery lead times and decreased used equipment pricing impact on trade-in values). We believe the Class 8 orders will be a negative surprise to investors and likely weigh on truck equipment related stocks.

And the punchline:

Class 8: Class 8 orders dropped 59% yr/yr to 16,600 and decreased 36% from October. The November orders were beneath our channel check based 22,000-25,000 unit forecast range and also below seasonal trends (below the ten-year average 7% decrease in November from October). This will likely disappoint some investors.
Visually, here is how the biggest collapse since the great recession looked like:

----Which is very bad news for these guys, who incidentally have been one of the few bright spots of hiring in the otherwise moribund US jobs market…

Just don’t tell the Fedster’s, or the Great Vampire Squids and the robo HFT traders. It’s still Party Time at the NYC Fedster’s Jim Jones gang of riggers and fix-its. More Kool Aid now.

"Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate farmers, liquidate real estate… it will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up from less competent people."

Andrew Mellon.

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