Wednesday, 23 December 2015

Another Red Flag!

Baltic Dry Index. 474  -04     Brent Crude 36.43

 LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

The history of taxation shows that taxes which are inherently excessive are not paid. The high rates inevitably put pressure upon the taxpayer to withdraw his capital from productive business.

Andrew Mellon.

A very happy, healthy, and joyful Christmas to all. May 2016 finally bring peace to the ruined moslem lands and people of the Middle East.

This morning, finally a clear morning as I walk my dog at 5.30 on her first comfort break of the day. Venus and Jupiter are again visible in the early morning sky. No longer in conjunction, Jupiter is overhead and “heading west,”  Venus is now settling in the east and “heading east.” God’s amazing world never fails to impress. This Christmas day, we get the first Christmas day full moon since 1977. Clouds permitting, enjoy.

We’re ending the year with yet another indicator signalling trouble ahed for the Fedster’s rigged stock market bubble. But who needs yet another indicator to know that the Fedster’s have run out of road and talent. If as their talking chair and the rest of the furniture suggest, that they will raise their key interest rate 4 times in 2016, unlikely, their stock market bubble is already on borrowed time. The smart money is already exiting ahead of the coming crash. Only the robo-traders and HFT thieves are still going long, but increasingly in an ever smaller pool of trophy stocks. As with trophy wives, an unpleasant divorce looms. 2016 is all too likely to become an epic year.

This ‘smart money’ indicator nailed the dot-com bust, and it’s even more bearish now

Published: Dec 22, 2015 12:51 p.m. ET
“Smart money” is betting against the bulls in a huge way.

When it comes to investing in the stock market, the crowd is often wrong at extremes. A contrarian’s delight.

This, according to Dana Lyons of J. Lyons Fund Management, is not one of those times. At least, if history is any indication. Of course, that’s a pretty big “if.”

Nevertheless, it’s worth noting what’s going on with the traders of S&P 100 options OEX, +0.83%
Historically, this group has been on the right side of the market more times than not when their collective options position is at an extreme,” Lyons wrote in a blog post in which he pointed out that OEX traders have never held more put options relative to call options.

By the numbers, Friday’s readings marked the first time in history with more than three put options for every call. The record didn’t last long. On Monday, it rose to 3.3 options for every call.

This chart shows just how rare these kinds of extremes have been. To put it in perspective, between 1999 and 2014, the reading broke past two puts for every call just 15 days.

As you can see, the chart also shows what tends to happen at these levels, and that’s clearly been bad news for bulls.

“They were almost all accurate in forewarning of struggles in the stock market,” Lyons said. “In late 1999 and mid 2007, the extreme readings preceded cyclical market tops. In mid-2011, the extreme occurred prior to the sharp summer decline. And while readings in June 2003 and late 2014 did not precede major weakness, the stock market did stagnate for several months following.”

In energy sector news, 2016 looks likely to be the Big Bust. Now even LNG wants in on some of that downward action.

American LNG Exporters Turn to Europe as Asian Demand Sputters

December 22, 2015 — 12:01 AM GMT Updated on December 22, 2015 — 9:17 AM GMT
For years, U.S. gas companies looking to export liquefied natural gas dreamed of a booming Asia. Now, with demand there falling and the first shipment weeks away, Europe has emerged as the unlikely savior of American LNG.
European gas production is down and countries there want to get more of the heating and power plant fuel from places other than Russia –- a major supplier, but one that’s brought plenty of headaches.
“It’s going to make a lot more sense for the U.S. gas to flow into the European market,” said Jason Bordoff, director of Columbia University’s center on global energy policy. “European energy security” comes from having “a diversity of supply," he said.
It’s the latest twist in the U.S. gas boom. A decade ago, Cheniere Energy Inc. was building LNG import terminals on the Gulf Coast because people thought the U.S. didn’t have enough of the fuel. Then came the shale revolution, prompting Cheniere to convert its Sabine Pass facility to export LNG. The first tanker is set to dock there as soon as next month.

Five U.S. liquefaction projects are now being built and they could have a combined capacity to ship 7.76 billion cubic feet of LNG a day by 2019, according to an analysis by Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
That’s enough to put the U.S. in the company of Russia and Qatar, the world’s largest gas exporters.

Companies like Annova LNG LLC are adapting to the shifting market. A couple of years ago, Annova President David Chung was brushing up on his Korean, thinking that’s the language buyers would speak. Increasingly, the Houston-based company is finding English will do.

“We have definitely been surprised by the level of interest in Europe,” said Mitchell Walk, director of LNG for the company, which is backed by Chicago-based electricity producer Exelon Corp.
Slowing Asian demand for gas is one factor behind the shift. China will only accept 77 percent of contracted cargoes in 2015 amid the country’s slowest economic growth since 1990, according to industry consultant IHS Inc.
Then there’s the fact that Asian gas prices are more heavily linked to crude oil than in Europe. In February 2014, spot LNG to northeast Asia fetched a record $19.70 per million British thermal units, according to the World Gas Intelligence publication in New York. Now, after the worst oil rout in a generation, it’s closer to $7 -- not much higher than European prices -- reducing the incentive to ship U.S. product halfway around the world.

The fairness of taxing more lightly income from wages, salaries or from investments is beyond question. In the first case, the income is uncertain and limited in duration; sickness or death destroys it and old age diminishes it; in the other, the source of income continues; the income may be disposed of during a man’s life and it descends to his heirs. Surely we can afford to make a distinction between the people whose only capital is their mettle and physical energy and the people whose income is derived from investments. Such a distinction would mean much to millions of American workers and would be an added inspiration to the man who must provide a competence during his few productive years to care for himself and his family when his earnings capacity is at an end.

Andrew Mellon.

At the Comex silver depositories Tuesday final figures were: Registered 40.49 Moz, Eligible 119.02 Moz, Total 159.52 Moz. 

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
A permanent Governor of the European Central Bank [your central banksters here] would be one of the greatest men in Euroland. He would be a little `monarch` in every City; he would be far greater than the Elected Leaders. He would be the personal embodiment of the ECB; he would be constantly clothed with an almost indefinite prestige. Every nation in business would bow down before him and try to stand well with him, for he might in a panic be able to save almost anyone he liked, and to ruin almost anyone he liked [Greece, Cyprus.]  A day might come when his favour might mean prosperity, and his distrust might mean ruin. A position with so much real power and so much apparent dignity would be intensely coveted.

With Apologies to Walter Bagehot. Lombard Street. 1873.

"There are some gambling banksters upon this earth of yours," returned God, "who lay claim to know us, and who do their deeds of passion, pride, ill-will, hatred, envy, bigotry, and selfishness in “Gods” name, who are as strange to us and all our kith and kin, as if they had never lived.”

With Apologies to A Christmas Carol, Charles Dickens.

Finally the Great Vampire Squid’s threat that cows the talking furniture and central banksters everywhere.

"If the financial system goes down, our business is going down and, trust me, yours and everyone else's is going down, too."

Lloyd Blankfein. CEO Goldman Sachs. November 8, 2009

Solar  & Related Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this new section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? DC? A quantum computer next?

Technology Tuesday: Graphene roped in for fight against oil spills

22/12/2015 6:30 am

Oil spill responders have a new weapon in the fight to clean up hydrocarbon spills – graphene.
The firm behind the new mobile decontamination unit are confident it could be used in the North Sea.
Italian firm Directa Plus has commercially launched its mobile Grafysorber decontamination unit, the world’s first graphene-based system for tackling oil spills.
The unit has already field tested the unit in Romania and Italy with encouraging results and sold its first three units to Italian firm Biocart.
Directa chief executive Giulio Cesareo, said: “Due to the mobile nature of the unit, it can be stored nearer to an area where an event may occur, thereby reducing the time and costs ordinarily associated with the transportation of a solution.”
The Grafysorber contains a proprietary and patented plasma machine that is able to produce on site all the absorbent graphene material needed to clean up water contaminated with hydrocarbons. As it is a mobile unit, it can be quickly deployed to the site of the spill.
The ability to produce the graphene on site and in the right quantity renders it a very cost-effective solution compared with conventional solutions, according to Directa.
During 2015, two industrial remediation activities have been carried out with Grafysorber, treating approximately 35,000m3 of water contaminated with petroleum hydrocarbons.
Less than 5g/m3 of Grafysorber were able to remove the hydrocarbon contaminants, reducing the concentration from 550mg/l to a safe level of approximately 0.5mg/l, with a significant cost reduction of 50-60% compared with traditional technologies.
Grafysorber is a sustainable product as it enables the recovery and recycling of the adsorbed oils; it is recyclable; and it does not contain any toxic substances.
It has recently received approval from the Ministry of Environment in Italy and in Romania.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished November

DJIA: +25 Down. NASDAQ: +121 Down. SP500: +45 Down. 

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