Thursday 3 September 2015

The New Norm.



Baltic Dry Index. 906 -05       Brent Crude 50.23

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

“Call it the Goldman Sachs test. If this is something Goldman would do to its clients, don't do it."

Felix Salmon.

It’s up, it’s down, it’s up, it’s down, it’s up, it’s down, the new norm is here. Quite how this new unintended consequence of global central banksters rigging stocks higher, is supposed to help the global economy hasn’t yet been explained by America’s talking chair, nor the other Goldmanite placemen running the west’s central banks.  My guess is that the new volatility doesn’t help at all. It wrecks forward planning, hedging risk, and needlessly destroys capital, is my take, but then I never worked for Goldman Sachs doing “God’s work” crushing Muppets.

Below, another unintended consequence of the dying Great Nixonian Error of fiat money.

Wall Street surges as turbulence becomes the norm

Wed Sep 2, 2015 8:15pm EDT
Wall Street stocks jumped almost 2 percent on Wednesday in the latest volatile session as investors weighed the impact of a stumbling Chinese economy and global market turmoil on the Federal Reserve's impending decision about when to raise interest rates.

U.S. investors have weathered over two weeks of unusually wide-swinging trade that has left the S&P 500 with its worst monthly drop in three years and a loss of 8.5 percent from an all-time high in May.

“What we're seeing today is not a recovery. It's market volatility, it's nervousness, it's an inability to call the direction of the market," said Jake Dollarhide, chief executive officer of Longbow Asset Management in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

"Through now and October we're going to see a lot more of this, a lot of volatility.”

U.S. labor markets were tight enough to fuel small wage gains in some professions in recent weeks, though some companies already felt a chill from an economic slowdown in China, the Fed said.

The combination of more demand for workers and worries about Chinese economic growth underscores the challenge faced by the Fed at a Sept 16-17 meeting where it may decide to raise interest rates for the first time since 2006.
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Asia Stocks Rise, Following U.S. Rally, With China Markets Shut

September 3, 2015 — 1:03 AM BST
Asian stocks rose, following a rebound in U.S. shares, with markets in China and Hong Kong closed for a holiday.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.4 percent to 126.45 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo. Chinese shares closed lower on the last trading day of this week as investors assessed the level of state support before a major military parade on Thursday. Mainland markets are closed Thursday and Friday to commemorate the end of World War II.

“One modest positive today is the fact China is offline for its Victory Day commemorations,” said Chris Weston, Melbourne-based chief markets strategist at IG Ltd. “So traders and investors will be focused on domestic data, valuations and trying to understand how to navigate these crazy markets.”

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.3 percent following a 1.8 percent gain on the underlying index on Wednesday. The U.S. equities gauge slumped 6.3 percent last month as China’s currency devaluation spurred concern over global growth, erasing more than $5.7 trillion in equity market values worldwide, while volatility surged the most on record.
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These Are a Few of the Stock Charts That Spook Louise Yamada

September 2, 2015 — 4:55 PM BST
Louise Yamada, one of the most famous chart watchers to ever watch a chart, is not very optimistic about the stock market these days.

She warned at the beginning of August that equities were vulnerable to declines due to things like narrowing stock-market breadth, violations of trend lines and depressed volume readings. In her latest report today and in an interview with Tom Keene yesterday on the radio, she wasn’t any more optimistic.

And since even Keene hasn’t figured out a way to show graphs over the radio (yet), here’s a look at what she had to say and a few of the charts that have her spooked.

“We started to see deterioration in stocks earlier in the year. It’s been a little bit like crying wolf because we may have been a little bit too cautious by February. But more and more stocks started to break support levels. And the technical indicators also became more fragile,” she said.

One of the things that caught her eye: the number of New York Stock Exchange-listed stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages wasn’t able to get above 60 percent this year, even as major market indexes continued to move higher.

Another red flag was her own volume momentum indicator, which compares trading volume of rising stocks and falling stocks. It went into an oversold condition and has been there consistently for three months.

“I think it’s important to understand that when you’re in a bull market, an oversold situation can be a very temporary registration and people tend to say ‘buy the dip,”’ she said. “But when you start going into a weakening market, a bear market for instance, the oversold can remain oversold and it is the empirical evidence of selling pressure. So all of these rallies that we’ve had since June when this indicator went oversold have been evidence with selling into strength. So people were taking their money out on the rallies that we’ve seen over the past three months.”
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We end for the day with what looks to me to be long term trouble for Uncle Scam. China is about to rewrite the rules of international finance. Why kowtow to Uncle Scam and the  World Bank using expensive American firms, if there’s an easy going cheaper option at the AIIB using Chinese or Asian or European firms.

Exclusive: China's AIIB to offer loans with fewer strings attached - sources

Tue Sep 1, 2015 | 6:24 PM EDT
BEIJING (Reuters) - China's new international development bank will offer loans with fewer strings attached than the World Bank, sources said, as Beijing seeks to change the unwritten rules of global development finance.

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) will require projects to be legally transparent and protect social and environmental interests, but will not ask borrowers to privatize or deregulate businesses for loans, four sources with knowledge of the matter said.

By not insisting on some free market economic policies recommended by the World Bank, the AIIB is likely to avoid criticism leveled against its rivals, who some say impose unreasonable demands on borrowers.

It could also help Beijing stamp its mark on a bank regarded by some in the government as a political as much as an economic project, and reflects scepticism in China about the virtues of free market policies advocated in the West.

"Privatization will not become a conditionality for loans," said a source familiar with internal AIIB discussions, but who declined to be named because he is not authorized to speak publicly on the matter.

"Deregulation is also not likely to be a condition," he added. "The AIIB will follow the local conditions of each country. It will not force others to do this and do that from the outside."
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"Markets are only a tiny facet of society, but being made by mass psychology, they are a good litmus paper for what is going on.  Markets only work when they believe, and this confidence is based on the idea that men can manage their affairs rationally.  If that belief fades, then so do the markets.  They do not merely dive, they dive and then they disappear.  It happened here in the blight of the spirit from 1930 - 1933, and it happened in other countries." 

“Adam Smith” aka George Goodman.

At the Comex silver depositories Wednesday final figures were: Registered 52.71 Moz, Eligible 115.23 Moz, Total 167.94 Moz. 

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
A trillion here a trillion there and pretty soon you’re talking real money.

Welcome to Quantitative Tightening as $12 Trillion Reserves Fall

September 2, 2015 — 8:44 AM BST
The great global monetary tightening of 2015 is under way, but it’s not being led by the Federal Reserve.
Even as U.S. policy makers ponder whether to raise interest rates this month, one recent source of central bank liquidity in financial markets is drying up and the loss of it partly explains August’s trading volatility.
Behind the drawdown are the foreign exchange reserves run by the central banks. Bolstered following financial crises in the late 1990s as a buffer against capital outflows and falling currencies, such hoards fell to $11.43 trillion in the first quarter from a peak of $11.98 trillion in the middle of last year, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Driving the decline is a combination of forces including the economic slowdown and recent devaluation in China, the Fed’s pending rate hike, the collapse of oil and decisions in Switzerland and Japan to cease intervening in currencies.
Each means central banks are either paring their reserves to offset an exit of capital or manage currencies, have less money flowing into their economies to salt away or no longer need to sit on as much. Whichever it is, the shrinking of reserves means much less money flowing into the financial system given authorities tended to recycle their cash piles into local currency or liquid assets such as bonds.
In the words of Deutsche Bank AG strategist George Saravelos and colleagues, welcome to the world of “quantitative tightening.”
They predict 2015 will mark the peak of reserve accumulation after two decades of growth with China in the vanguard as its new currency regime means it has to pare reserves to avoid a freefall in the yuan. It has already reduced its holdings to $3.65 trillion from $3.99 trillion in 2014.
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Solar  & Related Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this new section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? DC? A quantum computer next?

Graphene fuel cell electric supercar planned to take on Ferrari

1 September 2015 By Tereza Pultarova
An electric supercar powered by a graphene-based hydrogen fuel cell with better performance than a Ferrari is being developed by a newly established consortium.
The car, to be named Edison Electron One, will be the first project of the newly established Edison Motor Cars – a partnership between Sunvault Energy, the Edison Power Company and Delaware Corporation.
The firms said Edison Electron One, to be unveiled in 2016, will be equipped with an electric drive unit at each wheel, providing the vehicle with 1,355 Newton meters of torque, which is almost double that of a Ferrari 488 GTB and one third more than that of the Tesla P85D.
The firms said they are building the car to demonstrate their graphene-integrated hydrogen fuel cell technology.
"The fuel cell will be powered by an on-demand hydrogen generation unit built into the car and will only require water," said Robert Murray-Smith, Director of Sunvault Energy.
The car will be able to accelerate from zero to 100 km/h in about two seconds and will be rechargeable in five minutes, the firms said.
Edison Motor Cars will only make the car available to customers on a special-order basis.
"We are excited to be producing this truly revolutionary automobile that will put our Graphene Energy Storage Device front and centre on the world stage at the simple turn of a key", stated Sunvault Energy Chief Executive Officer Gary Monaghan. "The Electron One will not only be able to challenge any vehicle in performance, but will also be fully flexible, functional and convenient, just as a fuel-filled vehicle is today.”

http://eandt.theiet.org/news/2015/sep/edison-electron-one.cfm

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished August

DJIA: +65 Down. NASDAQ: +168 Down. SP500: +92 Down. 

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