Wednesday 16 September 2015

Fed Day One – All’s Well.



Baltic Dry Index. 802 -03       Brent Crude 47.86

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

"When it becomes serious, you have to lie"

Jean-Claude Juncker. Failed Luxembourg Prime Minister and ex-president of the Euro Group of Finance Ministers. Confessed liar. EC President.

Day one of the most anticipated Federal Reserve meeting in history. Will they announce tomorrow the end of the multi decade US bond bull market? Wall Street is threatening to throw a fit if they dare, in an attempt to stop them. It’s always worked in the past.

Below, how Asia is reacting to day one.

Asian shares, U.S. bond yields rise ahead of Fed rate decision

Tue Sep 15, 2015 10:40pm EDT
Asian shares followed Wall Street higher on Wednesday, albeit in thin volume, and short-term U.S. bond yields held near 4 1/2-year highs as investors braced for the possibility of the first interest rate hike in the United States in almost a decade.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 1.3 percent, while Japan's Nikkei gained 1.1 percent.

China shares rose 0.6 percent after sliding 6 percent early in the week on concerns about its slowing economy.

Markets remain mixed on the likelihood of a rate increase by the Fed at its two-day meeting starting later in the day, and U.S. economic data published on Tuesday did little to either back, or douse, expectations of one.

"Sentiment is shifting on a 5-cent piece right now," said Ben Le Brun, markets analyst at trading platform provider optionsXpress in Sydney.

"Although futures markets are pricing in a less than 30 percent chance of a rate hike on Thursday, the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen, meaning that traders might be having an each-way bet on the outcome."

U.S. shares rose 1 percent overnight, in part helped by data showing healthy growth in consumer spending, although retail sales for August were slightly below market expectations.

Manufacturing remained soft, pressured by the impact of the strong dollar on exporters, slack economies oversees and lower oil prices.

U.S. Treasuries yields jumped on Tuesday, with the policy-sensitive two-year yield rising about 8 basis points to 0.815 percent, its highest level since April 2011.
More
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/16/us-markets-global-idUSKCN0RG02020150916

While we wait for tomorrow’s Fed announcement, today we take a look at China ahead of President Xi’s visit to President Obama next week. Is a deal on Taiwan on the table?

Ahead of election, China says to discuss Taiwan on Xi's U.S. trip

Wed Sep 16, 2015 12:09am EDT
Chinese President Xi Jinping will raise the sensitive issue of Taiwan in his talks with U.S. President Barack Obama next week, China's government said on Wednesday, ahead of a crucial presidential election in the self-ruled island in January.

Taiwan's China-friendly Nationalists are expected to be thrashed by the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) opposition in the election. China has been stepping up its rhetoric against the DPP as the vote nears.

Nationalist forces retreated to Taiwan in 1949 after a civil war with the Communists and Beijing has never renounced the use of force to bring the island under its control.

"The Taiwan issue is the most important, most sensitive issue in Sino-U.S. relations," Ma Xiaoguang, spokesman for China's Taiwan Affairs Office, told a regular briefing. Ma had been asked if Taiwan would feature on the Xi-Obama agenda.

"We believe that, when the leaders of China and the United States meet, they will exchange views on important issues of mutual concern," Ma said, without elaborating.

The United States severed formal ties with Taiwan in 1979 but is obligated by law to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself, and arms sales always deeply anger China.

----Tsai has said she favors "maintaining the status quo" when asked about her China policy. If elected, she would be Taiwan's first female president.

Ma said mainstream Taiwan public opinion wanted to continue with developing good relations with China.
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http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/16/us-china-usa-taiwan-idUSKCN0RG0CP20150916

China continued South China Sea reclamation despite halt claim: expert

Tue Sep 15, 2015 7:47pm EDT
China was carrying out land reclamation in contested waters of the South China Sea this month, more than four weeks after saying it had stopped such activity, a U.S. expert said on Tuesday, citing recent satellite images.

The evidence of continued dredging in the Spratly archipelago could complicate a visit to the United States by Chinese President Xi Jinping next week, when U.S. concerns about China's assertive pursuit of territorial claims in Asia are expected to be high on the agenda.

Bonnie Glaser, of Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, said images taken in early September showed dredging activity at both Subi Reef and Mischief Reef in Spratlys.

The dredgers at Subi could be seen pumping sediment on to areas bordered by recently built sea walls and widening the channel for ships to enter waters enclosed by the reef.

At Mischief Reef, a dredger was expanding a channel to enable easier access for ships, possibly for future use as a naval base, Glaser said.

On Aug. 5, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Beijing had halted land reclamation in the South China Sea.

Glaser said China's activity appeared to be focused on construction for military use.

Images of Fiery Cross Reef showed a completed and freshly painted 3,000 meter runway, helipads, a radar dome, a surveillance tower and possible satellite communication facilities, she said.

Security experts say a 3,000 meter strip would be able to accommodate most Chinese military aircraft.
Glaser said China's apparent preparations to build similar airstrips on Subi and Mischief Reefs raised questions about whether it would challenge freedom of navigation in the air and sea in the future.
More
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/15/us-china-southchinasea-dredging-idUSKCN0RF2XQ20150915

Exclusive: China trying to undercut Germany on submarine offer to Egypt

Tue Sep 15, 2015 5:14pm EDT
China is trying to sell two submarines to Egypt that are cheaper than vessels on offer from Germany, industry sources told Reuters, as Beijing looks to expand weapons exports beyond its traditional customer base in Asia.

Beijing has sought to undercut Western submarine makers on price and by offering attractive export-credit terms for sales in Asia, the sources said. It has won deals with Pakistan and Bangladesh so far.

China displaced Germany as the world's third-largest arms exporter, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said in March, though nearly 70 percent of those weapons went to Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar.

An Egyptian military source said China had offered to sell submarines to Cairo.

"We are studying it, but it is not an easy decision," said the source, who declined to give details or be identified because he was not authorized to talk to the media.

An Egyptian military spokesman said he "had no official details" on the issue. China's Defense Ministry did not respond to a request for comment.

Two industry sources familiar with the matter said Cairo wanted two more submarines after ordering an initial two from ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) (TKAG.DE) of Germany in 2011 that are set to be delivered in 2017. TKMS has been in talks with Egypt for the additional two, they said.
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http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/15/us-china-egypt-submarines-exclusive-idUSKCN0RF2NR20150915

"With the exception only of the period of the gold standard, practically all governments of history have used their exclusive power to issue money to defraud and plunder the people."

F. A. von Hayek

At the Comex silver depositories Tuesday final figures were: Registered 48.68 Moz, Eligible 118.63 Moz, Total 167.31 Moz. 

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, belatedly Uncle Scam has a plan to take in some war zone migrants. 10,000 if they can fit into the existing budget. Such generosity from the nation that largely caused the disasters running in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Libya. I think that Europe should just dump all the migrants onto American bases all across Europe and tell the American War Party “you broke it, it’s yours. You fix it.”

"On the whole human beings want to be good, but not too good, and not quite all the time.”

George Orwell.

U.S. making plans for Syrian migrants: Homeland Security chief

Tue Sep 15, 2015 4:09pm EDT
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security is developing a plan right now for taking in at least 10,000 Syrian refugees over the next year, within existing budget constraints, Secretary Jeh Johnson told Reuters on Tuesday.

While some lawmakers have expressed concern about opening a pipeline into the United States for terrorists, the White House last week made the first specific U.S. commitment to increase acceptance of refugees from the war-torn country.

Johnson said on Tuesday that the security review and background checks for refugees would mainly fall to Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) within his agency. That unit's budget is mostly derived from fees it collects, said Johnson, who spoke to Reuters after a swearing-in ceremony for new citizens in San Francisco.

"CIS does not depend upon, and cannot expect, appropriations from Congress," Johnson said. "The organization has to pay for itself."

He added: "Any additional undertaking has to be balanced against resource requirements, and how we are going to pay for those resources."

White House spokesman Josh Earnest told reporters on Monday that the administration for the moment does not see the need to seek additional funding to process refugees.
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Weary of refugees, Munich gears up for Oktoberfest

Tue Sep 15, 2015 3:03pm EDT
Germany's decision to restore border controls to stem a tide of refugees may have stunned Europe, but it is being cheered in Munich as it gears up for a far bigger influx of 6 million beer-swigging visitors to the 182nd Oktoberfest.

The annual festival, known here as the "Wiesn" because it is held on the Theresienwiese, an open space near the city center, is a fun-loving celebration where 7.5 million liters of brew are consumed over a two-week period by locals and tourists alike, many decked out in traditional lederhosen and dirndls.

But this year city officials are working overtime to assure the public it will not turn into a "Krisen-Wiesn", or Oktoberfest in crisis, amid a flood of over 60,000 refugees into Munich's train station in the last week alone.

Bavarian Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann raised eyebrows at the weekend by suggesting that refugees descending from trains in Munich, after harrowing journeys from the war-torn Middle East, were likely to encounter crowds of violent drunks returning from the festival, which starts on Saturday.

"Refugees from Muslim countries may not be used to seeing extremely drunk people in public," Herrmann said. "It might seem a bit odd to some of them, if I may say so, but this is the reality."

The risk of that seems to have been greatly reduced since Germany imposed the controls on its border with Austria, cutting the inflow of asylum seekers through Munich to a trickle. Only 765 refugees arrived in the central station on Monday, according to police, down from 13,000 on Saturday.
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In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

George Orwell.

Solar  & Related Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this new section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? DC? A quantum computer next?

Porsche Mission E provides all-electric glimpse at the future of supercars

Scott Collie September 14, 2015
The Frankfurt Motor Show hasn't even started yet, but already Porsche has revealed its contender for best in show. The Mission E Concept is a drop-dead gorgeous, fast-charging, all-electric supercar that Porsche says can clock the Nürburgring Nordschleife in under eight minutes.
Hiding underneath the Mission E's shapely bodywork are two permanent magnet synchronous motors, which draw on the tech used in this year's Le Mans winning 919 Spyder. The two motors combine for a total of 447 kW (600 hp), enough to punt it to 100 km/h (62 mph) in just 3.5 seconds and on to 200 km/h (124 mph) in under 12 seconds.
While power is one thing, electric motors are known for making big torque figures from zero revs. Strangely, Porsche hasn't quoted a torque figure for the Mission E – we can only assume that the headline 447 kW figure is backed up by an equally impressive torque output, but we may have to wait until the Frankfurt reveal before we know for sure.

Taking full advantage of all this performance is, as you'd expect, hard on the battery. To make sure you're not waiting around while the car charges, Porsche says it has developed an 800-volt charging system that will give you 85 percent of the car's 500 km (311 mile) range in just 15 minutes. The car is also fitted with an inductive charging coil, opening the door for wireless charging if it actually makes production.

Because the Mission E is just a concept, there's no details about where or how owners would be able to take advantage of the 800-volt Turbo Charging system, although Porsche does say the car can be charged using more conventional charging stations, albeit more slowly.

When it comes to handling, the Mission E has a number of advantages over petrol-powered supercars. Just like Tesla, Porsche has mounted the car's batteries low in the underbody, making for a low center of gravity and quick direction changes. Because the batteries stretch the length of the car and there's a motor on each axle, the car also has an even weight distribution.

Though no weight figures have yet been quoted, Porsche says it has worked hard to keep the Mission E as light as possible by using a mix of aluminum, steel and carbon fiber in the body.
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The monthly Coppock Indicators finished August

DJIA: +65 Down. NASDAQ: +168 Down. SP500: +92 Down. 

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