Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the
future.
Niels Bohr
Below, Euroland misses again! But not to worry, it’s all going to be jam tomorrow, say the experts. Not if Brussels has any say in the matter. But the future looks bright in China, as in adding almost 19 tonnes of gold in July.
"[The]
Eurozone economy is still growing at a middling pace based on a variety of
leading indicators," Eric Lascelles, chief economist at RBC Global Asset
Management, said.
"Looking
forward, we expect the quarterly growth rate to pick up to 0.5 per cent to 0.7
per cent over the next year (consistent with more than 2 per cent annualised
growth) as fiscal austerity fades, risk appetite returns and lending conditions
continue to improve."
I never think of the future - it comes soon enough.
Albert Einstein
Eurozone economic growth misses expectations in the second quarter
14 August 2015 10:05am
The
Eurozone economy put in a disappointing performance in the second quarter,
despite the European Central Bank's (ECB) generous stimulus package.
A flash
estimate from Eurostat showed the 19-country bloc grew 0.3 per cent in the
three months to June, down from 0.4 per cent at the start of the year, and
missing economists' expectations for no change.
It
follows months of disappointing economic surveys - such as industrial
production, retail sales and construction.
And it's
hardly surprising given earlier data showed the Eurozone's two biggest
economies - Germany and France - experienced lacklustre growth in the second
quarter. Additionally, economic expansion in Italy and the Netherlands was also
weaker than forecast.
French
economic output was zero in the three months to June, according to its official
statistics body Insee. This came in below economists' expectations for a 0.2
per cent increase. It was weighed down by declines in investment and
inventories, as well as consumer spending.
Germany's
economy grew by an anaemic 0.4 per cent during the same period according to its
official statistics body Destatis. This was also below the 0.5 per
cent economists had forecast. While exports had received a boost from the
weak euro, investment declined.
At the
beginning of this year it looked like the Eurozone economy had turned a corner.
This was thanks to a happy confluence of the ECB's bond-buying programme, a
weak euro and low oil prices.
Since
then the Greek debt crisis has hit business and consumer confidence. Meanwhile
fears surrounding a slowdown in the Chinese economy rage on. But analysts
predict the Eurozone economy will shrug this off in the second half of this
year.
More
But
it doesn’t look like jam tomorrow to the oil patch. If commodities are
correctly calling the future, a deflationary bust or worse lies ahead.
Oil's Worst-Ever Summer Signals Price Rout Is Nowhere Near Done
August
14, 2015 — 11:29 AM BST
If
crude’s slump back to a six-year low looks bad, it’s even worse when you
reflect that summer is supposed to be peak season for oil.
U.S.
crude futures have lost 30 percent since the start of June, set for the biggest
drop since the West Texas Intermediate crude contract started trading in 1983.
That beats the summer plunges during the global financial crisis of 2008,
the Asian economic slump in 1998 and the global supply glut of 1986.
It even
surpasses the decline of 2011, when prices fell as much as 21 percent over the
summer as the U.S. and other large oil-importing nations released 60 million
barrels of oil from emergency stockpiles to make up for the disruption of
Libyan exports during the uprising against Muammar Qaddafi.
WTI, the
U.S. benchmark, fell to a six-year low of $41.35 a barrel Friday. It may slide
further, according to Citigroup Inc.
“Summer
is when refineries are all running hard, so actual demand for crude is as good
as it gets,” Seth Kleinman, London-based head of energy strategy at Citigroup
Inc., said by e-mail.
OPEC’s
biggest members are pumping near record levels to defend their market share and
U.S. production is withstanding the collapse in prices and drilling. The oil
market is still clearly oversupplied and “it will get more so as refiners go
into maintenance,” Kleinman said.
Oil demand usually climbs in the summer as U.S. vacation driving boosts purchases of gasoline and Middle Eastern nations turn up air-conditioning.
Oil demand usually climbs in the summer as U.S. vacation driving boosts purchases of gasoline and Middle Eastern nations turn up air-conditioning.
More
UPDATE 1-China gold holdings up in July in 2nd monthly update
Judy Hua and Manolo Serapio Jr 54 Mins Ago
Reserves
updates seen coming more frequently in transparency bid
*
Holdings rise to 53.93 mln troy oz, from 53.32 mln at end-June
(Adds
analysts' comments, details)
BEIJING/MANILA,
Aug 14 (Reuters) - China's gold reserves rose by nearly 19 tonnes in July from
June, the central bank said on Friday, disclosing its holdings for the second
time in two months in a move seen as a Beijing bid to increase transparency.
Before
China announced its gold holdings for end-June last month, the last time it had
adjusted its reserves figure was in April 2009.
The gold
reserves stood at 53.93 million troy ounces by the end of July, up from 53.32
million at end-June, the central bank said, an increase of about 610,000 troy
ounces or nearly 19 tonnes.
The increase is equivalent to about $680 million at
current prices.
"If
they're now reporting every month and the numbers are different then it
certainly does a lot for the transparency of the gold market in China,"
said Victor Thianpiriya, commodity strategist at ANZ Bank in Singapore.
China had
previously considered its gold holdings a state secret and did not report its
holdings on a monthly basis to the International Monetary Fund as most other
countries do.
More
The future ain't what it used to be.
Yogi Berra
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