Baltic Dry Index. 1200 +49 Brent Crude 50.35
LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
“Will you walk into my parlour?” said the Spider to the Fly,
‘Tis the prettiest little parlour that ever you did espy;
Would you like good news or bad news this morning, with your coffee or
tea? I presume no one follows old EC lying President, JC Juncker’s Scotch breakfast regimen. Not even this old
dinosaur Scot. Below, thanks to modern spin we can get both. The “good news” is
that US factory orders rose 1.8 percent in June, mostly down to a take-off in
commercial planes. The bad news is that for the 8th month
consecutively, US factory orders fell year on year. 6.2 percent for June, 3.5
percent for the half. Eight months of back to back decline is what would worry
me and I would warn clients about. The Great Vampire Squid stock pedlars and
their central bankster ilk, will surely spin the 1.8 percent “good news” rise
to the Muppets. Buy more!
The
way into my parlour is up a winding stair,
And I have many curious things to show you when you are there.”
And I have many curious things to show you when you are there.”
US factory orders advance 1.8 percent in June, while business investment posts modest gain
WASHINGTON — Orders to U.S. factories increased in June, driven by a big gain in commercial airplanes. A key category that reflects business investment plans posted a modest rise.The Commerce Department says factory orders advanced 1.8 percent in the month. The jump reflected a surge in demand for commercial aircraft, an often volatile sector.
A key category that serves as a proxy for business investment plans edged up 0.7 percent after declines in April and June. In the first half of the year, demand in the investment category is down 3.5 percent from the same period a year ago.
Manufacturing has been held back this year by a rising dollar, which dampens demand for exports, and falling oil prices, which have cut into energy industry investment spending.
More
But wait! The Fed’s putting out the word that its key interest rate is
going higher in September, won’t stocks crash in the traditional October?
Getting out early trumps being carried out late. Leave the last 10 percent for
Goldman’s Muppets. As usual with the Fedster’s since the reign of fallen former
guru Greenspan, Fedster Lockhart left himself plenty of get out of jail room.
Atlanta Fed's Lockhart: Only major weakness would prevent him backing September hike
Published: Aug 4, 2015 1:52 p.m. ET
Dennis
Lockhart, the president of the Atlanta Fed, on Tuesday said he supports a rate
hike at the U.S. central bank's next policy meeting in September. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Lockhart said
it would take major weakness in the data to convince him not to move. "I
think there is a high bar right now to not acting, speaking for myself,"
Lockhart said. The Atlanta Fed president is a voting member on rate policy this
year. He is seen by Fed watchers as a key bellwether of the thinking of the
majority on the U.S. central bank due to his pragmatic approach to economic
issues. Lockhart is the second Fed official in as many days to come out in
favor of a rate hike in September. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said in a WSJ interview released on Monday that he was in favor of
a move after the Sept. 16-17 meeting.
In China news, it’s official, it’s all working like clockwork now that
Beijing has everyone covered. Investors have never felt better about the
future, no really. No chance that this is all part of “encouraging
media to write reports that "stabilize the market".”
Oh no, no,” said the Fly, “to ask me is in vain;For who goes up your winding stair can ne’er come down again.”
Official China paper says investor sentiment has rebounded after stock rout
Investor confidence in China's stock market improved in July after the
government stepped in to halt a share price slide, China's official Shanghai Securities
News reported on Wednesday.
The newspaper cited a survey by China Securities Investor Protection
Fund Corporation, a state-owned fund set up to protect the rights of securities
investors, which said investor confidence in the stock market rose in July to
59.6, up 1.9 percent from June.
The index is measured on a scale of 1 to 100, where a level above 50
signifies confidence.
China's stock markets skidded 14 percent in July, their biggest monthly
loss in nearly six years, and are now down some 25 percent from mid-June highs.
The report also said investor sentiment was positive in June, when panic
selling started.
Since China's stock markets started crashing, Beijing has rolled out an
unprecedented series of support measures, including cajoling brokerages and
pension funds to buy stocks, cracking down on short-selling and negative
reports about the market and encouraging media to write reports that
"stabilize the market".
More
Toyota says not optimistic on China profitability
Toyota, which on Tuesday reported record first-quarter net profit for the third consecutive year, enjoyed rising China sales but price wars were sapping profit, company officials said at an earnings briefing.
China auto sales fell each month in the quarter as economic growth crawls at its slowest pace in 25 years, draining consumer sentiment. Analysts expect a stock market crash from mid-June to have a knock-on effect and further drag on vehicle sales.
Japanese automakers are widely expected to fare better than rivals due in part to sales of new sports utility vehicles (SUVs). But at Toyota, price competition has particularly hit its RAV4 as car makers seek to capitalize on a vogue for SUVs.
"In April-June, vehicle sales have progressed firmly but as for profitability, we can't be optimistic," said Managing Officer Tetsuya Otake.
Spokesman Hiroshi Hashimoto called the market "extremely hard" and added "there isn't much profitability in China."
---- The automaker attributed the earnings rise to general cost-cutting and currency gains from a strong U.S. dollar, which increased the value of income when converted into yen.
Those factors made up for a 0.4 percent decline in global retail sales
at 2.5 million vehicles. Toyota said the fall was due to economic slowdown in
Southeast Asia and lower sales of mini-cars in Japan, which were recently
subject to a tax hike.
More
“I’m
sure you must be weary, dear, with soaring up so high;
Will you rest upon my little bed?” said the Spider to the Fly.
“There are pretty curtains drawn around, the sheets are fine and thin;
And if you like to rest awhile, I’ll snugly tuck you in!”
“Oh no, no,” said the little Fly, “for I’ve often heard it said
They never, never wake again, who sleep upon your bed!”
Will you rest upon my little bed?” said the Spider to the Fly.
“There are pretty curtains drawn around, the sheets are fine and thin;
And if you like to rest awhile, I’ll snugly tuck you in!”
“Oh no, no,” said the little Fly, “for I’ve often heard it said
They never, never wake again, who sleep upon your bed!”
We leave the last word today to the Telegraph’s increasingly erratic
AEP. Don’t worry, he posits, until China
runs out of ammo. Besides, we’re saved, Ireland and Spain are booming, no, no,
really! Well maybe, but I think by when China runs out of ammo it’ll be too
late.
Said
the cunning Spider to the Fly, “Dear friend, what can I do
To prove that warm affection I’ve always felt for you?
I have within my pantry, good store of all that’s nice;
I’m sure you’re very welcome – will you please take a slice?”
To prove that warm affection I’ve always felt for you?
I have within my pantry, good store of all that’s nice;
I’m sure you’re very welcome – will you please take a slice?”
Day of reckoning postponed as global recovery builds
Monetary expansion in Europe, America and China all point to stronger growth this year, signalling another leg to the global expansion
With hindsight it is clear that the world economy came within a whisker
of recession earlier this year.
Global shipping volumes contracted by 3.4pc between January and May, according
to Holland’s CPB world trade index.
This episode is now behind us. Leading indicators and monetary data in
the US, Europe and China point to an accelerating rebound over coming months.
Gabriel Stein, from Oxford Economics, says the growth rate of the
world's real M3 money supply – based on the US, China, EMU, the UK, Japan and
Canada – rose to a six-year high of 6.2pc in June.
The M3 gauge tends to lead economic growth by 12 months or so,
suggesting that the worst may soon be over.
In Europe, the monetary kindling wood of recovery is clearly catching
fire. Spain is growing at its fastest pace since the post-Lehman crisis. So is
Ireland.
The triple effects of quantitative easing by the European Central Bank,
a 12pc fall in the trade-weighted index of the euro in 15 months and the fall
in Brent crude prices from $110 to $50 have together lifted Euroland out of its
six-year depression.
The property slump is over. Standard & Poor’s expects house prices
to rise 3pc in Holland, 4pc in Portugal, 5pc in Germany and 9pc in Ireland this
year.
Simon Ward, from Henderson Global Investors, said a key gauge of the
eurozone money supply – real six-month M1 – is growing a blistering rate of
12.6pc. This implies a surge in spending later this year. “Monetary policy is
too loose in the eurozone. It is highly questionable whether they can really
keep going with QE until the end of next year,” he said.
America is slowly weathering the effects of the strong dollar. The
economy grew at a 2.3pc rate in the second quarter. Capital Economics expects
it to accelerate to 3pc in the second half. Loans are growing at an 8pc rate.
It is not a glorious boom but nor is it the stuff of global meltdowns.
More
The
Spider turned him round about, and went into his den,
For well he knew the silly Fly would soon come back again;
So he wove a subtle web in a little corner sly,
And set his table ready to dine upon the Fly.
Then he came out to his door again, and merrily did sing,
“Come hither, hither, pretty Fly, with the pearl and silver wing;
Your robes are green and purple, there’s a crest upon your head;
Your eyes are like the diamond bright, but mine are as dull as lead.”
For well he knew the silly Fly would soon come back again;
So he wove a subtle web in a little corner sly,
And set his table ready to dine upon the Fly.
Then he came out to his door again, and merrily did sing,
“Come hither, hither, pretty Fly, with the pearl and silver wing;
Your robes are green and purple, there’s a crest upon your head;
Your eyes are like the diamond bright, but mine are as dull as lead.”
At the Comex silver depositories
Tuesday final figures were: Registered 55.76 Moz, Eligible 118.19 Moz, Total
173.95 Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
Today, the “other Greece.” The second of many to come, if Dr.
Copper and the other commodities are right about a global recession, if not
worse. In Puerto Rico, the tax free lunch just ended. Lunch, tax free or not, despite
paying, did not arrive.Puerto Rico triggers historic default as austerity spiral deepens
America's home-grown "Greece" is trapped in a vicious circle as a shrinking economy and an exodus of workers pushes the debt ratio through the roof
Puerto Rico has triggered the biggest municipal default in US history,
risking years of bitter legal warfare with creditors and an austerity
"death spiral" with echoes of Greece.
The island Commonwealth finally ran out of money on Monday after a
desperate effort to stay afloat, and missed a final deadline for a $58m payment
- handing over just $628,000.
It implies a sweeping default on much of its $72bn debt burden, equal to
100pc of Puerto Rico’s gross national product (GNP) and more than five times
the debt ratio of California or Texas.
The Commonwealth is now in legal limbo, facing a well-organised pack of
hedge funds that scooped up the debt at distressed levels and appears
determined to extract maximum value in the courts, even if this means shutting
down part of the island’s education system and social services. Puerto Rico is not covered by the “Chapter Nine” bankruptcy code in the US, and therefore cannot resort to the sort of orderly debt restructuring that helped the city of Detroit to get back on its feet after defaulting in 2013.
By a quirk of law, it does not enjoy the partial protection of full US states. At the same time, it is unable to draw on support from the International Monetary Fund since it is not a sovereign country.
“We don’t know how the bankruptcy is going to proceed. It could easily turn into a free-for-all,” said Desmond Lachman, a former IMF division chief now at the American Enterprise Institute.
“If the hedge funds press for their pound of flesh, they could drive the economy into the ground. The more the economy tanks, the less tax they collect, and the more they have to tighten. It is crazy,” he said.
“They are in a similar situation to Greece, and this is what happens if you are asked to carry out too much fiscal adjustment in a fixed exchange monetary union. Their GDP has been shrinking by 1pc a year for the last decade,” he said.
A group of 34 hedge funds, led by Fir Tree Partners and Aurelius Capital, among others, has recruited a team of former-IMF officials to push their case that Puerto Rico is able to pay its debts if it reins in public spending.
They claim that the island is “massively overspending” on education, letting costs balloon by 39pc over the past decade even though school enrollment has collapsed by a quarter. The island has already closed more than 100 schools.
----Puerto Rico has recruited its own IMF champion, the former deputy director Anne Kroeger. Her report implicitly calls for a debt haircut of 35pc, roughly the current price of debt trading in the secondary market, though there are many types of bonds. Others say debt relief nearer 50pc will be necessary.
----Yet the creditors have pushed home their narrative that Puerto Ricans are feckless, living beyond their means, and could easily pay if they tightened their belts. Great numbers of ordinary Americans bought the island’s debt because the interest was tax free.
More
Alas,
alas! how very soon this silly little Fly,
Hearing his wily, flattering words, came slowly flitting by;
With buzzing wings she hung aloft, Then near and nearer drew, –
Thinking only of her brilliant eyes, and green and purple hue;
Thinking only of her crested head – poor foolish thing! At last,
Up jumped the cunning Spider, and fiercely held her fast.
He dragged her up his winding stair, into his dismal den
Within his little parlour – but she ne’er came out again!
Hearing his wily, flattering words, came slowly flitting by;
With buzzing wings she hung aloft, Then near and nearer drew, –
Thinking only of her brilliant eyes, and green and purple hue;
Thinking only of her crested head – poor foolish thing! At last,
Up jumped the cunning Spider, and fiercely held her fast.
He dragged her up his winding stair, into his dismal den
Within his little parlour – but she ne’er came out again!
The Spider and the Fly. Mary Howitt. Stocks 2015.
Solar & Related Update.
With events
happening fast in the development of solar power, I’ve added this new section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? A quantum computer
next?
A cost-effective solution to tuned graphene production
Simple electrochemical approach allows defects to intentionally be created in the graphene, altering its electrical and mechanical properties
Date: July 29, 2015
Source:Institute of Physics
Summary: Graphene has been called the miracle material but
the single-atomic layer material is still seeking its place in the materials
world. Now a method to make 'defective' graphene could provide the answer.
Scientists now report that they have developed a simple electrochemical
approach which allows defects to intentionally be created in the graphene,
altering its electrical and mechanical properties and making the material even
more useful.
Today (30 July), in the journal Nanotechnology, a team of
researchers report that they have developed a simple electrochemical approach
which allows defects to intentionally be created in the graphene, altering its
electrical and mechanical properties and making the material even more useful.
The researchers used a technique called electrochemical synthesis to
break graphite flakes into graphene layers. By varying the voltage they could
change the resulting graphene's thickness, flake area, and number of defects --
all of which alter the properties of graphene.
"Graphene is basically a metal -- so it's somewhat boring!"
explains Mario Hofmann, a researcher at National Cheng Kung University in
Taiwan. "But when you start adding defects you begin to get interesting
effects."
----More precise control over the amount
and nature of defects could bring about new applications of graphene in drug
delivery or electronics. "Whilst electrochemistry has been around for a
long time it is a powerful tool for nanotechnology because it's so finely
tuneable." continues Hofmann. "In graphene production we can really
take advantage of this control to produce defects." Carefully controlling
the voltage has allowed the team a previously unknown level of control of the
amount of these defects.
The team developed a system of pulsed instead of continuous voltages,
allowing them to unravel the exfoliation mechanism. To monitor the evolution of
the graphene in the solvent they found that simply tracking the solution's
transparency could give them quantitative information on the efficiency and
onset of exfoliation.
They next plan to study the effects of adjusting the pulse durations
throughout the exfoliation process to improve the amount of exfoliated graphene
and introduce more complex pulse shapes to selectively produce certain types of
graphene defects.
More
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished July
DJIA: +88 Down. NASDAQ:
+189 Down. SP500: +116 Down.
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