The UK Election - 2015

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H. L. Mencken.

"It was the SNP wot wun it" for Cameron, to adjust the Sun's headline from 1979 and Maggie Thatcher.  While the polls were hopelessly wrong in England they were nearly 100% right in Scotland. Anticipating getting 50+ seats out of Scotland's 59, the Scottish harridan running the Scottish National Party, started bragging about putting in Milliband, and forcing his agenda hard left. Meanwhile, the ex-leader Comrade Salmond, confident at winning a seat in Westminster and leading the SNP rabble army there, was boasting that he was going to write Labour and Milliband's first budget. Labour would pay homage and Danegeld to the SNP for putting Labour in office. But most UK voters live and vote in England. They were horrified at this prospect. Every time the SNP boasted in the last two weeks, they drove thousands of English voters back to the Tories. They might have held their nose while they voted, but they voted against Scotland and a vassal Labour government in England.

In England south of Sheffield, the Lib Dem vote when it switches, supposedly splits roughly 70:30 back to the Tories. North of Sheffield pretty much the reverse. But the Libs held far more seats in the south rather than the north. Hence the near wipeout of the Libs from 55 to 8, with nearly all going to the Tories, and 10 to the SNP in Scotland. The Libs have round tripped back to the late 70s when all their MPs could fit in a London taxi, except for the alleged paedophile Cyril Smith who was too fat.

But the election also showed just how inadequate the UK system is in an age of multi parties. It was designed in the 19th century for voters qualified by owning rateable property, in an age of just two parties, male sufferage, and at a time when the House of Lords was far more dominant. In reality since about 1990 it's been an accident waiting to happen. Starting with Blair tinkering with the system from 1997 onwards but not reforming it, we got to yesterday's multiple car crash.

The SNP got only half the vote in Scotland, 1.4 million, but got 56 out of 59 seats. The Lib Dems got 2.41 million votes, but got only 8 seats. UKIP got almost 3.9 million votes, more than the SNP and LibDems combined, but got only 1 seat. The Greens got 1.16 million votes not that far off the SNP, but got only 1 seat. In Wales the Nationalists got 3 seats on only 182,000 votes. In Northern Ireland the DUP got 8 seats on only 184,000 votes.  There are now too many disenfranchised voters, but neither the Conservatives nor Labour will change the system since it suits them. 

In fact, the Tories are likely to use their new unexpected power to reorder the constituencies to make them closer to a universal size by voter. Something Labour and the Libs had blocked, since they gained an advantage of about 20 seats for Labour, and 5 for the Libs, over the Tories, from smaller constituencies.  My guess is that the growing disenfranchised will begin seriously agitating for electoral reform. And the UK still has reform of the Lords to tackle, plus reform of the EUSSR or UK voters will likely vote to leave in 2017.

So all UK polls nonsense.  Also bloody nose for BBC.

Rupert Murdoch.