Baltic Dry Index. 578 +04 Brent Crude 64.83
LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
In 1740, British Vice Admiral Edward Vernon (whose nickname was Old Grogram for the coat of Grogram he wore) ordered that the sailors' daily ration of rum be diluted with water. The men called the mixture grog. A sailor or EC President who drank too much grog was groggy.
We open once again with Greece. If anyone has a solution to Greece’s
unrepayable debt problem, or even just a grown-ups management plan for getting
Greece beyond May 31 and June 30, please call Athens and Berlin immediately.
With the potential to trigger the next Lehman from America to China, time to be
safely parked in cash and fully paid up physical precious metals. With cash, if
in Euros, make sure the serial number starts with a sound German “X”.
Three Sheets to the Wind
A sheet is a rope line which controls the tension on corners of a square sail. If, on a three masted ship, the sheets of the three lower course sails are loose, the sails will flap and flutter and are said to be in the wind. A ship in this condition would stagger and wander aimlessly downwind acting much like a drunken sailor or Greece.
A sheet is a rope line which controls the tension on corners of a square sail. If, on a three masted ship, the sheets of the three lower course sails are loose, the sails will flap and flutter and are said to be in the wind. A ship in this condition would stagger and wander aimlessly downwind acting much like a drunken sailor or Greece.
Asia stocks, euro falter as Greek crisis saps confidence
TOKYO |
Asian stocks were mostly lower
and the euro sagged on Tuesday as barely perctible progress on talks between
debt-strapped Greece and its creditors kept investors edgy.
Spreadbetters expected jitters over
Greece to continue weighing on Europe, forecasting a slightly lower open for
Britain's FTSE, Germany's DAX and France's CAC.
MSCI's broadest index of
Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.2 percent. Decliners included
shares in South Korea, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Thailand, while Chinese equities
bucked the trend and rose modestly.
In a closely-watched Eurogroup
meeting on Monday, euro zone finance ministers welcomed progress in
negotiations between Greece and its creditors but said more work is needed to
close a cash-for-reform deal.
"It acknowledged progress,
but any further development will depend on a positive conclusion to a review of
the current program. In other words, the story remains unchanged," Richard
Cochinos, head of Americas G10 FX strategy at Citi, wrote in a note to clients.
While Greece said on Monday it
repaid about 750 million euros to the International Monetary Fund, the absence
of a clear breakthrough in negotiations made it an anxious wait for markets
worried that Athens would eventually run out of cash and default on its debts.
"Barring
an unforeseen shock, Greece should be able to carry on negotiations into June,
but cash positions are low. Based on our expectations debts will have
significant trouble being met beyond mid-June," Cochinos at Citi said.
---- A recent sharp spike in euro zone bond yields from record lows have shaken other key debt markets such as U.S. Treasuries, which saw the 30-year bond yield climb to a six-month high.
Elevated U.S. yields mean higher
borrowing costs that could hurt shares not on just Wall Street but in many
other markets as well.
"We are potentially at a
crossroads. If U.S. monetary policy
begins to tighten, U.S. equity markets may have trouble
rallying, which could translate to some caution in other equity markets including
Japan," said Stefan Worrall, director of equity at Credit Suisse in Tokyo.
China was another factor on
investors' radar after Beijing cut interest rates for the third time in six
months on Sunday. While the latest easing has generally been welcomed by global
investors, concerns remain about the outlook for the economy as it heads for
its weakest annual growth in 25 years.
More
Germany says 'helpful' referendum could decide Greece's euro fate
Finance minister touts possibility of plebiscite as Greece gets no closer to striking deal with its partners
The
German government has raised the prospect of an in-out referendum to decide
Greece’s fate in the single currency, in a sign that Europe’s largest creditor
has begun to make contingency plans for a Greek exit from the euro.
Speaking ahead of a meeting of eurozone finance ministers in
Brussels, Germany’s Wolfgang Schaeuble said a plebiscite on Greece’s euro
membership could prove to be “helpful” for the debt-stricken country and its
creditors.
"If the Greek government
thinks it must hold a referendum, then let it hold a referendum," said Mr
Schaeuble.
"That might even be a
helpful measure for the Greek people to decide whether it is ready to accept
what is necessary, or whether it wants something different."
His comments represent something of a volte-face from Berlin, who famously quashed plans by then Greek prime minister George Papandreou to hold a referendum at the height of the country's debt crisis four years ago. Both Germany and France threatened to withdraw financial aid for Greece if a referendum was held in 2011.
The president of the European parliament, German Martin Schulz chimed in with the tacit endorsement, saying a referendum was a “possibility” but ultimately it would be up to the Greek government to decide.
Popular votes have not been the preferred course of action for European officials.
The people of the Netherlands and France voted to reject the EU Constitution in 2005, while Ireland also failed to initially ratify the Treaty of Lisbon in 2008.
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras campaigned to stay in the euro when his Leftist Syriza party stormed to power in late January. But after three months of fractious talks which have yielded little agreement, Greece stands on the brink of defaulting to its own people at the end of the month.
More
Below, former
U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry “Pooped” Paulson, the man who never saw the crash
of America’s gambling banksters coming, sees another bailout for Greece ahead.
Obviously paymaster Germany should just pick up the Greeks bill.
Pooped
The poop is the stern section of a ship. To be pooped is to be struck by a high, following sea or wave on the stern.
The poop is the stern section of a ship. To be pooped is to be struck by a high, following sea or wave on the stern.
Paulson Expects Euro Area to Reach Deal to Help Greece
4:11 PM BST May 11, 2015
Former U.S. Treasury Secretary
Henry Paulson said he expects Greece and other euro-area nations to reach a
deal on the country’s bailout that will keep it in the currency bloc.
“I just assume, maybe I’m looking
at it naively from the other side of the Atlantic, that somehow or other people
will figure out how to keep Greece as part of the euro,” he said in an
interview on Bloomberg Television on Monday.
Greece is in talks with creditors
on reforms needed to unlock more aid as it tries to avoid a default. Finance
Minister Yanis Varoufakis is meeting with euro-area counterparts in Brussels on
Monday and said he expects to establish a “good paving stone” toward a deal on
funds.
Paulson also said that Greece is
just one problem facing the 19-nation region. Echoing comments repeatedly
voiced by European Central Bank Mario Draghi, he said the ECB is doing all it
can to protect the recovery, and governments need to do more.
“To me the problem is the
fundamental structural flaws in Europe,” he said. “Mario Draghi is a hero, as
far as I’m concerned, but monetary policy will only do so much, and again the
key to Europe is to stepping up on some of the structural issues and dealing
with the labor reforms, some of the more fundamental things that need to be
done.”
In oil news, US frackers are about to get a massive, increasing, cash
flow, debt service shock. The phony war in frackerland is about to get blitzed
in H2 15.
The Bitter End
The end of an anchor cable is fastened to the bits at the ship's bow. If all of the anchor cable has been paid out you have come to the bitter end.
The end of an anchor cable is fastened to the bits at the ship's bow. If all of the anchor cable has been paid out you have come to the bitter end.
Shale oil output at Bakken and Eagle Ford starts a descent
Published: May 11, 2015 6:15 p.m. ET
U.S. Energy Information
Administration
Oil production from seven major U.S. shale plays is expected to fall by a total of 86,000 barrels a day in June, according to a monthly report from the Energy Information Administration released Monday. The previous report released a month ago also showed a forecast for a fall of 57,000 barrels a day in May.
Oil output at the Eagle Ford shale play in South Texas is forecast to see the biggest decline, down 47,000 barrels a day in June. The Bakken shale play, which stretches from Canada into North Dakota and Montana, is expected to see output fall by 31,000 barrels a day, the report said. That would follow forecast declines in both regions for the month of May.
“The data shows that production in the Bakken and Eagle Ford [plays] peaked in March at 1.33 million barrels a day and 1.73 million barrels a day, respectively,” said James Williams, energy economist at WTRG Economics.
Strong shale oil production,
which contributed to the nation’s crude supply glut, was a key reason for the
drop in oil prices in the second half of last year. Prices are still down more
than 40% from their peak of roughly $106 a barrel last summer.
More
Big banks flag dangers of financial bubble in oil and commodities
Barclays warns that the latest commodity boomlet has charged ahead of economic reality across the world: 'Watch out: this rally may not last'
The big global banks have begun to warn clients that the blistering rally in oil and industrial commodities in recent weeks has run far ahead of economic reality, raising the risk of a fresh slump in prices over the summer.Barclays, Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank have all issued reports advising investors to tread carefully as energy and base metals fall prey to unstable speculative flows in the derivatives markets.
Oil has jumped 40pc since January even as the US, China and the world economy as a whole have been sputtering, falling far short of expectations.
“Watch out: this rally may not last. The risks for a reversal in recent commodity price trends are growing,” said analysts at Barclays.
“There is a huge disconnect between the price action in physical markets where differentials are signalling over-supply and the futures markets where all looks rosy.”
Miswin Mahesh, the bank’s oil
strategist, said a glut of excess oil is emerging in the mid-Atlantic, with
inventories rising at a rate of 1m barrels a day (b/d). Angola and Nigeria are
sitting on 80m barrels of unsold crude and excess cargoes are building up in
the North Sea and the Mediterranean.
Morgan Stanley echoed the
concerns, warning that speculators and financial investors have taken out a
record number of “long” positions on Brent crude on the futures markets even
though the world economy keeps falling short of expectations
---- A comparable
dynamic is playing out in the copper market, where net long positions have
jumped 60pc since the start of the year and helped power the longest rally in
copper prices since 2005, even as industrial output grinds to a halt in China
---- The mini-boom in energy and metals has taken on huge significance since it is being taken as evidence that global recovery is under way and that the dangers of a deflationary spiral have abated. Barclays said that this in turn is a key factor driving up global bond yields, and therefore in repricing the cost of global credit.
If the commodity rally is being
driven by investor exuberance in the derivatives markets – rather than a
genuine recovery in the world economy – it is likely to short-circuit before
long and could even lead to a relapse into deflation. It is extremely difficult
for central banks to navigate these choppy waters, raising the risk of a policy
mistake.
More
Cut and Run
If a smaller ship at anchor was discovered by a larger enemy vessel, the Captain of the smaller ship might decide that discretion is the better part of valor, and so would order the crew to cut the anchor cable and sail off in a hurry.
If a smaller ship at anchor was discovered by a larger enemy vessel, the Captain of the smaller ship might decide that discretion is the better part of valor, and so would order the crew to cut the anchor cable and sail off in a hurry.
At the Comex silver
depositories Monday final figures were: Registered 59.68 Moz, Eligible 116.63
Moz, Total 176.31 Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
Today,
the outrageously left wing, anti-American, anti-British, anti-Christian, anti-capitalist,
anti-Israel, pro-Labour, pro-EUSSR, homosexuality promoting, BBC gets a reality
check. Time to sell off most of it, end the licence tax, and let these loony
leftists get real jobs far away from the public trough. Long overdue too. Time to finally be done with
poisonous nest of communist fellow travellers. Other than the Labour Party, who
needs a Labour Party BBC?
Taken Aback
A dangerous situation where the wind is on the wrong [left] side of the sails pressing them back against the mast and forcing the ship astern. Most often this was caused by an inattentive BBC Trust helmsman who had allowed the BBC ship to head up into communism.
A dangerous situation where the wind is on the wrong [left] side of the sails pressing them back against the mast and forcing the ship astern. Most often this was caused by an inattentive BBC Trust helmsman who had allowed the BBC ship to head up into communism.
Tories go to war with the BBC
David Cameron, infuriated by the corporation's election coverage, appoints BBC critic John Whittingdale to "sort out the BBC" ahead of the royal charter review next year
The
future of the licence fee is in doubt after David Cameron appointed one of the
BBC's biggest critics as Culture Secretary in a move that will be seen as an
effective declaration of war on the corporation.
Downing Street sources said that Mr Whittingdale will "sort out the BBC" ahead of the corporation's royal charter review next year, which will set out the future of the £145.50-a-year licence fee.
Senior Conservatives said they were “furious at the BBC’s coverage” of the election campaign and accused the corporation of an “unforgivable pro-Labour bias”.
There are now concerns that the
corporation's coverage of the EU referendum in 2017 could betray a pro-EU bias.
Friends of Mr Whittingdale said
he is at the very least likely to freeze the licence fee and could implement
significant cuts.
He is also expected to scrap the
BBC Trust, the body that oversees the corporation, after a series of scandals
over its coverage and executive pay-offs.
His appointment will enable the
Conservatives to push ahead with the decriminalisation of the licence fee,
which was blocked in the last Parliament in the House of Lords.
Senior Tories repeatedly clashed
with the BBC during the election campaign and were particularly infuriated by
the corporation's attempts to force David Cameron to take part in a
head-to-head leadership debate.
Speaking ahead of Mr
Whittingdale's appointment, a senior Tory source said: "It's increasingly
clear the BBC is governed by ideology. The way they handled the negotiations
over the debates was appalling. There were times during the campaign when the
coverage did seem skewed in Labour's favour."
Philip Davies, a member of the
culture select committee in the last Parliament and ally of Mr Whittingdale,
accused the corporation of "dancing to Labour's tune" during the run
up to the election.
He said: "During the
election campaign the presenters barely even had the courtesy to hide their
allegiances.
More
BBC's licence fee should be decriminalised then scrapped, MPs say
The Department for Culture, Media and Sport says that the BBC is not 'brave enough' and needs to do more original programming
The BBC's licence fee is becoming "anachronistic"
and should be de-criminalised and ultimately scrapped entirely, a committee of
MPs has said.
The Culture, Media and Sport
select committee said that the corporation's broadcasting is not "brave
enough" and the it should stop trying to do "something for
everyone".
It suggested that spending on
commercial shows which are of little public service interest should be cut,
amid criticism of the BBC for buying the rights to shows like The Voice.
It said that the BBC Trust, the
body charged with overseeing the corporation, has "failed to meet
expectations" and should be abolished in the wake of the Jimmy Savile
scandal.
The committee suggested that the
licence fee should be de-criminalised because it is "out of
proportion" with the civil offences levied by utility companies and local
authorities.
More
Batten Down the Hatches
Prepare for
trouble. As at the BBC.
The securing of
property [backs,] especially the covering with protective sheeting (tarpaulin),
is called 'battening down'. A batten is a strip of wood used to secure the
sheeting. It has a nautical origin and 'battening down' was done on ships [and
at the BBC] when bad weather was expected.
Solar & Related Update.
With events
happening fast in the development of solar power, I’ve added this new section.
Updates as they get reported.
Today, an assessment of last week’s MIT reports on
the Future of Solar Energy.
Why Rate Reform Is a Better Solution to Distributed Solar Than Eliminating Net Metering
Shayle Kann of GTM Research dissects MIT’s recent Future of Solar report.
Shayle Kann May 11, 2015
Last week, a group of researchers at the MIT Energy Initiative released a sweeping 332-page study called The Future of Solar Energy. The report projects a grand future for solar as a major long-term driver of greenhouse gas reductions and is bullish on the prospects for centralized solar.But on the matter of distributed solar the report has a different view -- calling today’s net energy metering policies a “subsidy” that would be better removed from the market.
This is a controversial issue in both the solar industry and among utilities, and some might be tempted to log this report in along with the many other reports on the costs and benefits of net energy metering for which the findings vary widely. Still, I think it is worth examining this latest research more closely, because it does have something to say about how distributed solar should be compensated and how electricity rates should be structured. But my conclusions are not the same as the report’s headlines might suggest.
Does rooftop solar cost other ratepayers?
Chapter 7 of the MIT study runs a complex Reference Network Model (RNM) to simulate the impacts of distributed solar penetration on grid costs under a variety of scenarios. It finds that, while an increase in distributed PV does reduce line losses (thereby saving network costs), this is more than offset by the added distribution costs associated with investments required to maintain power quality with increasing two-way power flows. In other words, distributed solar costs the grid more than it saves.This is already a point of contention; other studies have found distributed PV (or net metering) to be a net benefit to the grid, largely by incorporating savings from avoided transmission and distribution infrastructure upgrades, reliability benefits, and/or environmental benefits (see P. 9 of this Vermont report or this great RMI meta-study for a comparison of existing research methodologies).
But let’s assume that the MIT study full accounts for all appropriate costs and benefits. Solar’s costs to the grid would still be very small. More
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/why-rate-reform-is-a-better-solution-to-distributed-solar
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished April
DJIA: +112 Down. NASDAQ: +198 Down. SP500: +150 Down.
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