Baltic Dry Index. 575 -05 Brent Crude 67.29
LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
Oh, so they have internet on computers
now!
Red Ed Milliband, with apologies to Homer
Simpson.
We open with the UK election heading towards a hung Parliament. Hanging’s
too good for them say most of the UK’s voters! The return of “hung, drawn and
quartered?”
I'm normally not a
praying man, but if you're up there, please save me Superman.
Dave "hug a hoddie" Cameron, with
apologies to Homer Simpson.
U.K. Votes in Unprecedented Election With Outcome Elusive
12:01 AM BST May 7, 2015
Britain votes on Thursday in the most uncertain election since World War II,
a ballot that looks set to be followed by negotiations to secure a
parliamentary majority and clashes over who has the legitimacy to govern.Polls suggest that neither Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron nor his Labour opponent Ed Miliband will come close to getting enough seats in Parliament to govern alone. Instead, they face days or even weeks of talks to try to win over enough smaller parties to command a majority.
“After the voting, counting and negotiating is over, it is likely that the loser will have been only a few thousand -- possibly a few hundred -- votes short of power,” said Rob Hayward, an electoral expert and former Conservative lawmaker.
The uncertainty attached to the electoral outcome in a Group of Seven nation is beginning to play out in markets, with volatility buffeting the pound and gilts. One reason is the political risks even once a government is formed: If Cameron manages to stay in office, he’ll hold a referendum on leaving the European Union. If Miliband gets in, it will be with the support of the Scottish National Party, which will be looking for opportunities to further the cause of independence.
While the Labour and Tory campaigns have failed to inspire the electorate -- the polls have stubbornly refused to budge since the beginning of the year -- other parties have engaged voters who have been sidelined for decades. The SNP looks set to win at least six times as many seats as it took in 2010. At the other end of the country, the anti-EU U.K. Independence Party may win seats for the first time at a general election.
More
Operator!
Give me the number for 911!
Nick
"U-turn" Clegg, with apologies to Homer Simpson.
In other EUSSR news, it’s all your fault Berlin tells
Athens. Meanwhile a panicked ECB stumps up once more for Greece.
Berlin insists only Europe can rescue the Greeks as ECB injects bumper emergency cash to banks
Wolfgang Schaeuble says the Troika are not to blame for Athens' cash crisis, insisting the country had long been "living above its means"
Germany's finance minister has
insisted only Europe can save the bankrupt Greeks as the European Central Bank
provided its biggest liquidity boost to the country in over three months.
Speaking in Berlin, Wolfgang
Schaeuble said Greece's financial problems came from years of profligacy where
the country "lived beyond its means" and failed get enough people to
pay taxes.
He also suggested that the
radical Left government had faltered in its bid to secure financial aid from Russia for a much-vaunted gas pipeline deal.
Greece managed to avoid defaulting on its creditors on Wednesday,
making a €200m loan repayment to the International Monetary Fund.
In a sign that talks over a
reforms-for-cash deal were progressing, the ECB boosted its emergency cash
(ELA) to Greece's banks by €2bn on Wednesday - that largest single dose of
funds since Syriza were elected in late January.
This takes the total ELA limit to
around €79bn, and makes the latest dose almost double the 12 previous
increments drip fed by the central bank. The ECB also refrained from increasing
the collateral requirements on the country's stricken banks.
----Marking 100 days in office, Athens' radical Left government risked provoking the anger of its paymasters by pressing ahead with plans to rehire thousands of sacked public sector workers who lost their jobs under Troika-imposed austerity drives.
The Greek parliament passed legislation which could pave the way for upto 13,000 former civil servants to be rehired - one of the key pre-electoral promises of the Leftist government.
More
In real news, there’s
big trouble building in the real global economy. Far away from our central
bankster’s stock and bond bubbles, the real economy as represented by shipping,
now seems to be reeling from currency wars, blowback from sanctions, and
western
consumers all tapped out. Get ready for an earthquake in retailing.
Rebuke To The Money Printers: Containerized Freight Index Plunges to Multi-Year Lows
by Wolf Richter • May 5, 2015
If trade is a reflection of global demand, and if shipping rates are a
reflection of the supply of ships by carriers and the demand for those ships by
exporters to meet that global demand for goods – well then, we’ve got a
situation on our hands.Two weeks ago, when I wrote about the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), the index had fallen so far so fast that it seemed to be a statistical fluke, something that would instantly bounce back. The SCFI tracks the spot rates from Shanghai to various destinations around the world. At the time, the SCFI component for Northern Europe had plunged 14% from the prior week to $399 per twenty-foot container equivalent unit (TEU), down 67% from a year ago. An all-time low.
There was a lot of handwringing because, even with the lower bunker fuel costs, the break-even rates for these routes were $800 per TEU, according to a report by Drewry Maritime Research. Over twice the spot shipping rates!
The question was how much lower could rates drop?
A lot lower. Over the two weeks since, the SCFI for Northern Europe plunged another 14% to $343, setting a new all-time low. A terrific 68% collapse from the same week a year ago. Something big is going on in the China-Europe trade.
Carriers have tried to impose hefty rate increases, with UASC pushing for an increase of $1,300 per TEU, and a gaggle of others going for an increase of $1,000 per TEU, according to the Journal of Commerce. None of them were able to make them stick.
The
swooning rates came as bunker fuel costs have been rising off their January
lows. Higher input costs are hitting container carriers just as revenues
are collapsing. A toxic mix.
---- Another index, the Worldwide Container Index for routes from Asia to the Americas and Europe, which Drewry cites, has plummeted 41% since January to below $1,300 per FEU (ugly chart). Clearly, something is going on in the east-west container business – and beyond – to create this sort of gloom.
On top of the list of reasons is weak demand for imports in Europe, particularly the Eurozone, whose currency has been purposefully massacred by the ECB to achieve just that sort of effect: reducing imports and goosing exports as part of the currency war. Imports measured in euros may actually rise, since the same imports are now more expensive. But the number of containers would drop, since the same amount of euros now buys a lot less in China, whose currency is pegged to the dollar.
---- On the Chinese side, the impact has already shown up, however foggy the figures may be. China’s “official” manufacturing PMI, which was released on Friday, came in at 50.1, barely in expansion mode, and the worst reading for an April since 2005. But it captures the state-owned giants that are less engaged in manufacturing for exports.
The HSBC manufacturing PMI,
released today, fell to 48.9 in April, solidly in contraction mode, the worst
level since April last year. The new-orders sub-index, which points at what the
near future might look like, dropped to 48.7. The March PMI had also been in
contraction mode. It’s the HSBC PMI that captures the private-sector companies
that are heavily export-oriented. These companies are struggling with very
lackluster global demand for their products.
More
Oh, the SNP can come up with statistics to
prove anything, Dave. 14% of Scots people know that.
UKipper Farage, with apologies to Homer
Simpson.
At the Comex silver
depositories Wednesday final figures were: Registered 62.20 Moz,
Eligible 112.52
Moz, Total 174.72 Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
Germany’s the EUSSR problem. Kick Germany out and
Club Med might just have a chance at prospering. It’ll never happen though. In
the EUSSR, paymaster Germany and feckless France are exempt from the so called
rules.
Germany's record trade surplus is a bigger threat to euro than Greece
If EU law were properly enforced, Germany would face fines for endangering eurozone stability and breaching the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure for the fifth year in a row
Germany’s current account surplus is out of control. The European Commission’s Spring forecasts show that it will smash all previous records this year, reaching a modern-era high of 7.9pc of GDP. It will still be 7.7pc in 2016.Vague assurances that the surplus would fall over time have once again come to nothing. The country is now the biggest single violator of the eurozone stability rules. It would face punitive sanctions if EU treaty law was enforced.
Brussels told Germany to do its “homework” a year ago, but recoiled from taking any action. We will see if Jean-Claude Juncker's commission does any better this time.
If not, cynics might justifiably conclude that big countries play by their own rules in Europe, and that Germany can defy all rules.
The EMU punishment machinery is highly political, in any case. The story of the EMU debt crisis is that the authorities persistently enforce a creditor agenda rather than macro-economic welfare (an entirely different matter).
This is the fifth consecutive year that Germany’s surplus has been above 6pc of GDP. The EU’s Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure states that the Commission should launch infringement proceedings if this occurs for three years in a row, unless there is a clear reason not to.
There are few extenuating circumstances in this case. Germany’s surplus is not caused by a one-off shock. The surplus remains huge even if adjusted for lower energy import costs. It is a chronic structural abuse, rendering monetary union unworkable over time, and is surely more dangerous for eurozone unity than anything going on in Greece.
“The European Commission should stop pulling its punches: Germany should be fined,” said Simon Tilford, from the Centre for European Reform.
“Their surplus should be treated in the same way as the southern deficits were treated earlier, as a comparable threat to eurozone stability. What is so worrying is that the surplus would normally be falling rapidly at this stage of the economic cycle,” he said.
----The International Monetary Fund warned last year that the German surplus – then 8.25pc of GDP when adjusted for the cycle - is destructive for EMU as a whole. It is between three and six percentage points higher than is either “desirable” or justified by fundamentals. It is not in Germany’s own economic interest, and makes it even harder for the EMU crisis-states to claw their way out of trouble.
The IMF said Germany’s exchange rate is undervalued by as much as 18pc under trade elasticity theory even then, before the more recent plunge in the euro. This was achieved by squeezing wages in the early years of EMU, undercutting the South.
More
"Ye lover of the picturesque, if ye wish to drown your
grief,
Take my advice and visit the ancient town of Crieff."
Take my advice and visit the ancient town of Crieff."
SNP Fuhrer Sturgeon, with apologies to Scotland’s top poet
William McGonagall.
Solar & Related Update.
With events
happening fast in the development of solar power, I’ve added this new section.
Updates as they get reported.
The Future of Solar Energy
An Interdisciplinary MIT Study led by the MIT Energy Initiative
May 5, 2015
This
study is the latest in the MIT Energy Initiative's "Future of"
series. Its predecessors have shed light on a range of complex and important
issues involving energy and the environment.
More
Below, good old Yankee hype and hopium, though I expect some mileage out of both. We are just at the start of our new Carbon Age boosted by graphene.
Ketra Creates ‘Dynamic’ LED Light
At Lightfair this week, Ketra is showing its dynamic light that changes in intensity and color temperature in accordance with time of day, changing natural light or occupant preference. With the ability to shift continuously, dynamic light allows for exact replication of natural light, says Ketra.Ketra’s dynamic light technology is already used by Tiffany & Co, Museum of Science and Industry (Chicago), MGM Grand and Google.
Ketra is now offering dynamic light to residential customers. The company has created a system of LEDs, software and controls that all work together, offering a retrofit solution for homeowners that delivers control via wireless communication. The system integrates with existing infrastructure and standard lighting fixtures.
Ketra.
Tesla to benefit from pent-up demand for its cars, while new battery a bonus
Published: May 5, 2015 12:19 p.m. ET
The battery is the icing on the cake, says Jefferies
“It’s all about the battery,” analysts wrote.
The company’s relentless drive to improve battery storage capacity, longevity and performance, while also lowering the cost per kilowatt/hour “results in a key competitive advantage that helps (Tesla) evolve into new markets, products…and services,” they wrote.
Jefferies started coverage of Tesla with a buy rating and a price target of $350—50% upside from Tuesday’s price and 36% more than the stock’s average price target on Wall Street, according to FactSet.
The car business is also looking strong. Tesla TSLA, -1.08% could sell at least 500,000 of its electric cars a year by 2020 in North America and Western Europe alone, said the note.
"It
is never difficult to distinguish between a Scotswoman with a grievance and a
ray of sunshine."
Dave,
Ed and Nick, with apologies to P. G. Wodehouse.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished April
DJIA: +112 Down. NASDAQ: +198 Down. SP500: +150 Down.
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