Monday 11 August 2014

US Blowback.



Baltic Dry Index. 777  +12

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

"I just want you to know that, when we talk about war, we're really talking about peace."

George W Bush --Washington, D.C. June 18, 2002

Today, the start of blowback in the new trade war to somehow bailout America’s botched illegal coup in Kiev, that by now should have deposed Putin in Russian an Lukashenko in Belarus, allowing the west to slice and dice up most of EurAsia for its mineral wealth, isolate China, before eventually slicing and dicing up the non Han parts of China.

As Continental Europe struggles with youth unemployment of over 50% in many places, stagnant economies, and looks all too much like it’s relapsing back into recession, into this vast American War Party insane overreach, the first casualties look to be continental European milk and cheese producers, apple and pear producers, fruit and vegetable producers, luxury car makers, construction equipment manufacturers, plus American ranchers and toxic chicken suppliers to Russia.

And Russia hasn’t really started retaliating yet. Just wait until the west commercial planes get charged double Asia’s fees to overfly Russia to reach Asian destinations. Just wait until Russian tourists drop the EU as a winter vacation destination. Just wait until Azeri oil can’t reach Ceyhan Turkey for onward delivery. If things are this chilly in August, just wait until we hit November, December, January and February.

Below, the insane march towards World War Three.

"You know, one of the hardest parts of my job is to connect Iraq to the war on terror."

George W Bush --interview with CBS News' Katie Couric, Sept. 6, 2006

Lagging France is 'threat to eurozone'

France could push the eurozone to "breaking point" if politicians do not follow through on reforms, says Centre for Economics and Business Research

France's glacial pace of reform could push the eurozone to "breaking point" if another crisis hits the 18-nation bloc, a leading think tank has warned.

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) said that although the rest of the eurozone – including peripheral economies of Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain – was heading towards a tentative recovery, France's big budget deficit, stubbornly high unemployment and chronic competitiveness problem meant Europe's second-largest economy was at risk of being plunged into another crisis, with grave consequences for the rest of the currency area.

"The risk that the French economy will lag behind its neighbours in enacting reforms is not a trivial one," said Danae Kyriakopoulou, an economist at the CEBR, and co-author of the new report. "Though the troubles of the region's periphery have so far proved manageable, a crisis in [France] could have dramatic consequences for the viability of the currency union and push the eurozone to breaking point."

French president François Hollande has introduced a sweeping package of supply side reforms aimed at boosting productivity and reviving growth. Earlier this year, he announced a multi-billion euro package of spending cuts he said would pave the way for a reduction in business taxes.

However, his popularity has plummeted since his election two years ago amid record joblessness, with 3.4m people now unemployed. Meanwhile, the budget deficit, at 4.3pc of gross domestic product, remains well above the European Union limit of 3pc.
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Aberdeen chief warns on Ukraine crisis risks

Martin Gilbert, boss of Aberdeen Asset Management, says that investors have overlooked geopolitical risks

Escalating international tensions around Russian involvement in the Ukraine crisis have the potential to wreak much more damage to global stock markets, one of Britain’s top fund management executives has claimed.

Martin Gilbert, co-founder and chief executive of Aberdeen Asset Management, said in an interview with The Daily Telegraph that he finds the comparative indifference of stock markets to the crisis unsettling.

“The thing that does worry me is that everyone is too relaxed and shrugs off global events like what’s happening in the Ukraine as if they hadn’t happened,” he said.

“When the Malaysia Airlines MH17 plane went down, I was sitting there thinking: ‘Jesus, this is how world wars start’.

“I’m pretty sure it was unintended but the unintended consequences of this unintended act could have been fairly dramatic and yet all that really happened in stock markets was that the price of gold went up. We didn’t see equity markets collapsing.
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Finland's Valio to Put 800 Staff on Unpaid Leave due to Russia's Import Ban - Reports

MOSCOW, August 8 (RIA Novosti) - Finland's leading dairy company Valio may put 800 of its staff on unpaid leave as part of the reorganization plan after Russia imposed an import ban on the food products from Europe, the Yle television reported Friday.

The talks on the reorganization mainly touch upon four Valio plants out of 15. The four plants employ about 800 people, some of whom will be put on unpaid leave for an unspecified period, while others may not get their contracts extended. The company does not, however, plan any layoffs.

"Everything is caused by the situation with Russia. The talks were not a complete surprise, something of this sort was expected," a representative of the Valio Haapavesi plant said.

Russia’s move to ban agricultural imports from countries that have imposed sanctions against Moscow could cost the Finnish dairy industry 400 million euros ($534.1million), the Yle radio station reported earlier.

About 25 percent of Finnish food exports reach Russia, Finnish Food and Drink Industries' Federation (ETL) Director Heikki Juutinen said as quoted by Yle. Processed foods make most of the exports, two-thirds are dairy products such as butter, cheese and yogurt.
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Italy counts cost of sanctions as Russia spurns pears, Grana Padano

Rome — Reuters Published Friday, Aug. 08 2014, 3:01 PM EDT
Last updated Friday, Aug. 08 2014, 5:15 PM EDT
Russia has sent entire shipments of Grana Padano cheese back to Italy and cancelled exports of pears from Modena under a food import ban which could cost Italy at least €200-million ($270-million U.S.), an agriculture group said on Friday.

Russia’s ban on imports of specific foods from countries that have imposed sanctions over the Ukraine crisis puts at risk exports which were worth about €228-million in 2013, the Coldiretti group said.

“We are facing a worrying escalation of the conflict, with a trade war that confirms that food is strategic above all in times of recession,” Coldiretti president Roberto Moncalvo said in a statement.

On Thursday, Moscow announced a one-year proscription on imports of meat, fish, dairy, fruit and vegetables from the United States, European Union, Canada, Australia and Norway.

Italy, home of Parmesan cheese and Prosecco wine, is proud of its rich culture of cooking, eating and drinking. Coldiretti says food and drink exports made €34-billion in 2013, as the wider Italian economy struggled to emerge from a recession to which it returned in the second quarter of this year.

Italian exports of food and drink to Russia were worth a record €706-million in 2013, Coldiretti said, and rose a further one per cent in the first four months of 2014 despite conflict in the ex-Soviet region.

----In 2013, Russia bought Italian fruit and vegetables worth €72-million, meat worth €61-million, dairy products worth €72-million and pasta worth €50-million, Coldiretti said, adding that the possibility of surplus foreign food arriving in Italy could translate into further losses for producers.

France asks EU for help with fallout from Russia food ban

Saturday, 09 August 2014 00:25
PARIS: France has asked the European Commission to take "appropriate" measures to deal with the fallout from a Russian ban on food imports from Europe, the French presidency announced on Friday.

The request came as President Francois Hollande met with French food producers concerned about the impact of the ban.

Noting the "importance of European and French food exports to Russia," a statement from the French presidency said talks were underway with the European Commission so that the "consequences of the embargo are accurately assessed and measures appropriate to the situation are taken."

"Special attention will be paid to producers of fruits and vegetables, and farmers who are already facing difficulties in the market," the statement said.

It added that an approach to the World Trade Organization (WTO) should also be considered.
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Brazil poultry exporters ready to replace US on Russian market

August 07, 8:14 UTC+4
The Brazilian capacities allow supplying additional 150,000 tonnes of chicken to Russia to fully make up for the U.S. quota

RIO DE JANERO, August 7 (Itar-Tass) - Brazil poultry farms quite easily can meet the demand for chicken on the Russian market in connection with the Russian decision to halt agriculture imports from some countries, Brazilian Animal Protein Association President Francisco Turra said on Wednesday.

The Brazilian capacities allow supplying additional 150,000 tonnes of chicken to Russia to fully make up for the U.S. quota. The 150,000 tonnes may be Brazilian, Turra said.

Brazil supplied 60,000 tonnes of chicken to Russia last year, and the South American country have exported a total of more than 300,000 tonnes to Russia, the association president said.

Recently, the Russian veterinary control service permitted 20 chicken suppliers in Brazil to enter the Russian market, he added.

By increasing supplies to Russia, Brazil already this year may reach the level of four million tonnes, a record for it, the vice-president and the head of the poultry sector of the association, Ricardo Santin, said.
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Europe Dreads America's Chlorinated Chickens

Caroline WinterAugust 08, 2014
Europeans have long been suspicious of U.S. poultry. American birds, they complain, are bathed in a chlorine solution before they’re brought to market. That’s why EU leaders are currently fighting to uphold a ban on imports of what is popularly referred to as “Chicken in Chlorine Sauce.”

“There will be no imports of chlorinated chicken from the U.S.,” Angela Merkel insisted during the European elections earlier this year. “I have prevented those imports for years, and I will continue to prevent them. No question.”

This isn’t some kind of snobbish disdain for all-American poultry. Chlorinated chicken is real. Many American farmers treat plucked, eviscerated birds with chemicals, including chlorine, to “help meet targeted salmonella and campylobacter reductions,” according to the Department of Agriculture. In Europe, meanwhile, chicken producers tend to decontaminate birds using only cold air.

“Here in Europe we say chlorine is very bad for people, so let’s forbid it,” says Frans Fransen, owner of IFT Poultry, a poultry industry consultancy based in Belgium. He adds: “Chlorine removes the superficial bacteria, not what’s hidden in the meat.” That’s why all chicken, even chemically treated chicken, must be thoroughly cooked.

The fear of chlorinated chicken from the U.S. is particularly widespread in Germany. “The phrase Chlorhuehnchen, or chlorine chicken, has entered the parlance of everyone from taxi drivers to housewives since [global] trade negotiations began a year ago,” Reuters found. “An Internet search for the term generates thousands of results, bringing up cartoons of animals dumped in vats of chemicals and stabbed with needles.”

Europe’s concerns aren’t totally unfounded. Last year Washington Post reporter Kimberly Kindy published a disturbing look at the possible human toll of heavy chemical use at U.S. poultry factories:

“In interviews, more than two dozen USDA inspectors and poultry industry employees described a range of ailments they attributed to chemical exposure, including asthma and other severe respiratory problems, burns, rashes, irritated eyes, and sinus ulcers and other sinus problems.”

It has also been argued that chemical cleansing encourages faster, sloppier practices on the slaughter line. Citing government sources and documents, Kindy writes: “To keep speeds up, the new regulations ‘would allow visibly contaminated poultry carcasses to remain online for treatment’—rather than being discarded or removed for off-line cleaning, as is now common practice,” she writes. “The proposed rules say ‘all carcasses’ on the line would be treated with antimicrobial chemicals ‘whether they are contaminated or not.’”

----Poultry is America’s sixth-most-important agricultural export, with shipments worth more than $4.7 billion sent to nearly 100 countries last year, according to the National Chicken Council. That makes the U.S. the world’s second-biggest chicken exporter, behind Brazil.
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Poland plans new canal to by-pass Russia

Poland plans a new canal to link Vistula Lagoon with the Baltic Sea

By Matthew Day 3:41PM BST 10 Aug 2014
Poland plans to construct a new canal to bypass a stretch of coastline controlled by Russia, as the country tries to rid itself of dependence on its neighbour.

Costing an estimated £167 million, the planned canal will link the Vistula Lagoon in the north east of Poland with the Baltic Sea. Currently, all sea traffic from the lagoon and the flourishing port of Elblag has to travel through Russian waters to get to the Baltic. The canal will cut through a narrow strip of land separating the lagoon from the sea.

The approval of its construction marks an about-turn for Poland's centre-right government led by Donald Tusk, the prime minister. A year ago he rejected plans for the canal, but the war in eastern Ukraine and Russia's apparent willingness to meddle in the affairs of its neighbours appear to have changed the government's mind.

----Poland has a five-year deal with Russia on navigation rights from the lagoon to the sea that expires this year, and there are fears Moscow may not extend the agreement. Warsaw has been one of the Kremlin's harshest critics during the Ukraine crisis and has led calls for the EU to take a hard line with Moscow.
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Elsewhere, China’s real estate boom starts to look like USA 2007.

"Do you have blacks, too?"

George W Bush --to Brazilian President Fernando Cardoso, Washington, D.C., Nov. 8, 2001

Property Defaults Seen as Financing Stresses Mount: China Credit

Aug 11, 2014 2:47 AM GMT
China’s slumping property market is fueling speculation the industry is set for a shakeout as small developers face difficulty raising funds to pay off debt.

Yield premiums on Chinese real-estate bonds denominated in dollars have jumped 35 basis points this month to 582 basis points over Treasuries, the sharpest increase among emerging Asian countries, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes. That compares with a 19 basis-point advance for Indonesian builders. Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s said some smaller Chinese developers may default in the second half amid falling sales and shrinking access to credit.

China’s real-estate industry poses the biggest near-term risk to growth in the world’s second-largest economy after new home prices dropped in the most cities in two years in June, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. While government steps to ease property curbs helped builder bonds rally in July, they’re giving up those gains ahead of housing-price data due next week.
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"I would say the best moment of all was when I caught a 7.5 pound largemouth bass in my lake."

George W Bush --on his best moment in office, interview with the German newspaper Bild am Sonntag, May 7, 2006

At the Comex silver depositories Friday final figures were: Registered 59.83 Moz, Eligible 115.49 Moz, Total 175.32 Moz.  

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over. 
Today, more on our new lawless age. The world now waits to see if the USA will prosecute anyone for using illegal Nazi style World War Two torture.

“The Germans [your nation here] outside looked from America to Russia, and from Russia to America, and from America to Russia again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.”

With apologies to George Orwell and Animal Farm.

CIA waterboarding is torture: International Red Cross

The International Committee of the Red Cross has broken its silence on the use of waterboarding employed by the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) on terror suspects, calling it torture and violation of the Geneva Conventions.

It was the first time that the Red Cross, based in Geneva, Switzerland, has publicly declared that a specific interrogation technique constitutes torture.

"The definition of torture is any technique that causes severe pain or suffering, whether physical or mental, inflicted for a purpose, such as obtaining information or a confession, exerting pressure, intimidation or humiliation," Anna Nelson, the Red Cross spokeswoman in Washington, said on Friday.

"Waterboarding fits into this category and therefore qualifies as torture" under US and international law, she added.

Nelson said the recent public defense of waterboarding in the US prompted the Red Cross, which historically hasn't commented publicly on specific detention practices, to break its traditional silence.

"Given that this debate has been going on for years and continues to come up, we do not want our silence to be misconstrued as tacitly condoning this technique as permissible," she said.

Many human rights activists and legal scholars have long maintained that waterboarding and other cruel techniques inflicted on detainees during the George W. Bush administration were torture, which is prohibited by US federal law.

"There is no way any competent and knowledgeable attorney can say that waterboarding is legal under the Geneva Conventions, the Uniform Code of Military Justice, or the Convention Against Torture," said retired Major General Thomas Romig, a former US Army judge advocate general.

The new condemnation over the CIA’s cruel techniques comes amid renewed US debate over the spy agency’s practices after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, which included waterboarding several detainees at so-called secret black sites overseas. The CIA and US lawmakers have been fighting over publication of parts of an extensive Senate Intelligence Committee report that is critical of the spy agency's conduct.

Last Friday, President Barack Obama said at a news conference the coming CIA report would show some terrorism suspects suffered techniques "any fair-minded person would believe were torture."

"I wish you'd have given me this written question ahead of time so I could plan for it...I'm sure something will pop into my head here in the midst of this press conference, with all the pressure of trying to come up with answer, but it hadn't yet...I don't want to sound like I have made no mistakes. I'm confident I have. I just haven't -- you just put me under the spot here, and maybe I'm not as quick on my feet as I should be in coming up with one."

George W Bush --after being asked to name the biggest mistake he had made, Washington, D.C., April 3, 2004

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished July.

DJIA: +157 Down. NASDAQ: +318 Down. SP500: +232 Down.  The Fed’s final bubble has taken on a very scary wobble, but this is nothing compared to the return of real interest rates at some point ahead.

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