Baltic Dry Index. 836 +44
LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
"Those entrapped by the herd instinct are drowned in the deluges of history. But there are always the few who observe, reason, and take precautions, and thus escape the flood. For these few gold has been the asset of last resort."
Antony C. Sutton
We open today with bad, but expected, news from
Japan. Predictably, raising the sales tax from 5 percent to 8 percent in April,
caused Japanese consumers to beat the tax rise whenever they could, by
purchasing ahead of the tax rise. Even so, the oil market is signalling a
rising global slowdown. Our Great Disconnect is heading to its Waterloo. Here
endeth today’s good news.
Aug. 12, 2014, 10:41 p.m. EDT
Japan's economy contracts sharply
TOKYO--Japan's economy contracted
sharply in the second quarter after a sales-tax increase in April sent
household spending tumbling, which economists said could pressure the
government to take additional stimulus measures.
Real gross domestic product, the
total value of all goods and services produced in the economy, shrank 6.8% in
the three months through June on an annualized basis from the prior quarter.
That was slightly less than a
7.1% contraction forecast by economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal,
but economists said a larger-than-expected drop in private consumption and a
sharp increase in inventories raised concerns about the resilience of Japan's
economic recovery.
A fallback in economic output was
expected after the nation's sales tax rose to 8% from 5% on April 1. Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe and other policy makers have said they expect the downturn
to be short-lived.
If that forecast proves too rosy,
the government might have to compile more economic-stimulus measures and
reconsider plans to raise the sales tax further to 10% in October 2015,
economists said.
more
Aug. 12, 2014, 3:10 p.m. EDT
Oil futures drop; U.S. production at highest in decades
Highest average production since 1972 in store for 2015: EIA
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Oil prices fell on Tuesday after
the International Energy Agency cut its forecast for global oil demand and the
U.S. Energy Information Administration said the U.S. in July produced the most
oil in nearly 30 years.
Crude
for September delivery CLU4
-0.30%
fell 71 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $97.37 a barrel on the New York Mercantile
Exchange. That snapped a three-session winning streak.
In
London’s ICE, Brent crude for September delivery UK:LCOU4
-0.43%
fell $1.66, or 1.6%, to end at $103.02 a barrel.
Prices
were under pressure after the International Energy Agency said Tuesday that
supplies were plentiful despite ongoing geopolitical conflicts.
“Despite
armed conflict in Libya, Iraq and Ukraine, the oil market today looks better
supplied than expected, with an oil glut even reported in the Atlantic basin,”
the IEA said in its August monthly oil-market report released Tuesday.
The
IEA also cut its global demand-growth forecast for 2014 to 1 million barrels a
day, down 180,000 barrels per day, citing weaker-than-expected demand in the
second quarter.
More
Now for the bad news. America’s puppet regime in Kiev has
apparently been given the green light by Washington to start a real war with
Russia. Currency collapse and mass migration come next if America’s War Party
doesn’t change direction.
"With the exception only of the period of the gold standard, practically all governments of history have used their exclusive power to issue money to defraud and plunder the people."
F. A. von Hayek
Ukraine to Block Russian Aid Trucks as It Tightens Noose Around Rebels
Aug 12, 2014 10:01 PM GMT
A convoy Russia
says is loaded with humanitarian assistance for rebel-held areas of Ukraine
headed for the border, as the government in Kiev set conditions for letting the
aid in and the Red Cross demanded more details. Russia’s government said 280 trucks with 2,000 metric tons of donated food, medicine and water left Moscow yesterday and would proceed into Ukraine under the auspices of the Geneva-based International Committee of the Red Cross. Ukraine expressed fears the convoy is carrying military equipment to aid the pro-Russian separatists.
The
ICRC needs “some clarification first regarding modalities, practical steps that
have to be implemented prior to launch such an operation,” Laurent Corbaz, its
head of operations for Europe, said in a video on the Red Cross website. “We
seriously need security guarantees, for example, and direct contact with all
the parties; this is not settled yet. We need as well to know precisely what is
inside the convoy, the size of this convoy, and the various material that is
going to be handed over.”
----“The Russian aid mission raises the prospect of incidents -- calculated or accidental -- that could further escalate the crisis by enabling Moscow to argue that Ukrainian and international organizations are unwilling or unable to provide adequate security,” New York-based Eurasia Group analyst Alexander Kliment said in an e-mail. “This logic would then lead Russia to insert troops under the pretext of protecting aid workers.”
Amid the continued tensions,
Ukraine’s currency, the hryvnia, plunged as much as 6.9 percent to a record-low
13.715 per dollar yesterday. The head of the central bank, Valeriya Gontareva,
told lawmakers in Kiev the hryvnia dropped after “a mood of panic” spread
“because of speculation about the start of a full-scale war.”
More
Next, more on Europe’s unneeded tragic economic suicide for Uncle Scam. Stay long fully paid up physical gold and silver. Any real war in the Ukraine will quickly go regional, wiping out the euro as collateral damage. Morgan Stanley is already writing off the region even before America’s puppets in Kiev initiate the shooting war with Russia. It’s the madness of 1914 all over again.
"The history of paper money is an account of abuse, mismanagement, and financial disaster."
Richard M. Ebeling
EU’s East Braced for Sanctions Pain With GDP Set to Slide
Aug 12,
2014 11:01 PM GMT
The European Union’s biggest eastern economies are flagging as escalating
sanctions against Russia
and retaliation from President Vladimir
Putin exacerbate the euro area’s stuttering recovery from a record slump. Poland probably grew 0.5 percent from the previous three months in the second quarter, less than half the pace of the January-March period, according to a Bloomberg survey. Czech expansion probably slowed to 0.3 percent from 0.8 percent, while Hungary’s decelerated to 0.7 percent from 1.1 percent, separate surveys show. The three nations report the data tomorrow.
The worst standoff in more than two decades between Russia and its former Cold War foes is curbing trade in the EU’s ex-communist members and threatening the euro region’s revival. As Russia responds to sanctions by banning food from the EU, Germany, the east’s No. 1 export market, is facing a first economic contraction in two years and crumbling confidence.
“The region will face more growth worries should geopolitical risks choke off the already stunted recovery in the euro area, which accounts for a significant share of central and eastern European exports,” Shweta Singh, a London-based economist at Lombard Street Research, said in an Aug. 11 report.
----Eastern Europe is “vulnerable to a protracted conflict, especially in case of further escalation,” Morgan Stanley said yesterday in an e-mailed report in which it downgraded its recommendations for Hungarian and Romanian debt to underweight while maintaining a neutral position for Poland.
“These developments shift the risks around growth to the downside,” it said, citing “spillovers from Russia.”
More
Euro Near Nine-Month Low on Economy; Yen Holds Declines
Aug 13,
2014 6:31 AM GMT
(Corrects date of U.K. gross domestic product release in 11th paragraph.) The euro traded 0.2 percent from a nine-month low before reports this week that may show growth in the region weakened and inflation slowed, adding to signs the bloc’s economy is struggling to recover.
Europe’s shared currency fell yesterday after data showed German investor confidence slumped more than analysts forecast, following figures last week that indicated Italy returned to recession. The yen held a two-day slide, as Bank of Japan officials said they will maintain unprecedented stimulus and Japan’s economy shrank. Australia’s dollar rose after consumer confidence improved. Thailand’s baht gained as local markets reopened after a holiday.
“Concerns that Europe’s economic recovery will slow will keep the euro under pressure,” said Junichi Ishikawa, an analyst at IG Markets Securities Ltd. in Tokyo. “The focus should be whether or not the European Central Bank will add to easing this year.”
----The European Union’s statistics office will probably say tomorrow growth in the euro-area economy weakened to 0.1 percent in the second quarter from 0.2 percent in the previous period, according to the median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. A separate report may confirm consumer prices gained 0.4 percent last month on an annual basis, the slowest pace in more than four years.
More
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-12/euro-near-nine-month-low-on-economy-yen-holds-declines.html
Norway Oil Services Risking Arctic Growth on Russian Sanctions
Aug 12, 2014 11:01 PM GMT
Aker
Solutions ASA (AKSO), the offshore engineering company controlled by
billionaire Kjell Inge Roekke, could miss opportunities to expand into Russia’s Arctic
region if Europe
and the U.S. uphold sanctions on the country. “If the political situation continues and the sanctions are long-term, they will mean lost market opportunities,” Chairman Oeyvind Eriksen said in Oslo yesterday. While the Fornebu, Norway-based company isn’t currently involved in any large projects in Russia, it’s “ready to consider” opportunities when the restrictions are lifted, he said.
Aker Solutions, which has experience of the Arctic through projects it’s worked on off northern Norway, is seeking to expand into new markets as the company splits to focus on its subsea and engineering businesses to cut costs and improve shareholder returns. The company’s owners, which include Roekke’s investment company Aker ASA (AKER) and the Norwegian state, approved the split at a meeting in Oslo yesterday.
“Russia is one of the world’s biggest oil and gas producers, with large resources not least in the Arctic region, which is part of the core competence of Aker Solutions,” said Eriksen. “I hope the political situation is clarified quickly, and not only for commercial reasons.”
More
Crisis stalks Europe again as deflation deepens, Germany stalls
Data from Germany, Italy and Portugal put pressure on ECB to act
Portugal has crashed into deep deflation and Italy’s inflation rate has fallen to zero as the eurozone flirts with recession, automatically pushing these countries further towards a debt compound spiral.The slide comes amid signs of a deepening slowdown in the eurozone core, with even Germany flirting with possible recession. Germany’s ZEW index of investor confidence plunged from 27.1 to 8.6 in July, the sharpest fall since June 2012, during the European sovereign debt crisis. “The European Central Bank has to act now,” said Andrew Roberts, credit chief at RBS.
Markets were stunned by the sudden fall in Portugal’s HICP inflation to -0.7 in July, from -0.2pc the month before. Spain’s provisional estimate is for a fall of 0.3pc. The risk is that this cause inflation expectations to become unhinged and extremely difficult to reverse.
“The latest inflation figures call for the ultimate bazooka from the ECB. We’re seeing the Japanification of Europe,” said Lena Komileva from G+ Economics. “Deflation pushes up the debt ratios in the southern countries and makes their task even more insurmountable.”
More
"If ever there was an area in which to do the exact opposite of that which government and the media urge you to do, that area is the purchasing of gold."
Robert Ringer
At the Comex silver depositories Tuesday final figures were: Registered 59.83 Moz,
Eligible 115.40 Moz, Total 175.23 Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
Today, more on the Great Growing Wobble in China. A
massive mal-investment bubble looks increasingly likely to burst."The paper standard is self-destructive."
Hans F. Sennholz
China Credit Gauge Plunges as Expansion in Money Supply Slows
Aug 13, 2014 6:28 AM GMT
China’s broadest measure of
new credit unexpectedly plunged to the lowest level since the
global financial crisis, adding risks to economic growth already headed for the
weakest annual pace in 24 years. Aggregate financing was 273.1 billion yuan ($44.3 billion) in July, the People’s Bank of China said today in Beijing, suggesting a tightening after a Bloomberg LP gauge showed China loosened monetary conditions last quarter at the fastest pace in two years. New local-currency loans of 385.2 billion yuan were half of projections, while M2 money supply grew a less-than-anticipated 13.5 percent from a year earlier.
Chinese stocks fell after the credit slowdown joined a property slump in testing Premier Li Keqiang’s economic-expansion target of about 7.5 percent this year, spurring speculation the government will ease policy. The PBOC said the drop in financing resulted from recent regulation and financial institutions’ enhanced control of risks.
“The numbers reflect both tightened regulation over certain financing activities and an underlying weak economy,” said Zhang Bin, an economist in Beijing with the state-run Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. “There’s still no real recovery in growth -- at best, we can say that economic performance is stabilizing at a low level.
The
Shanghai Composite Index reversed gains following the data and was down 0.5
percent at 1:24 p.m. local-time. The aggregate financing figure compared with
the 1.5 trillion yuan
median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.
More
With Uncle Sam fully occupied in
Iraq and busy trying to start a shooting war in the Ukraine, China has upped
the ante in squeezing old enemy Japan. While Uncle Sam feigns neutrality in the
China v Japan Diaoyu Island dispute, staying neutral in a looted antiquities
dispute isn’t an option. America can’t have one law for looted Nazi European treasure,
but another for Japanese looted Asian treasure. Why should Japan’s Emperor be
holding stolen Chinese treasure?
China Presses for Japan's Return of Plundered Antiquities
Islands.
Airspace. Antiquities. Until now, China has concentrated its attention on the
first two as it fights against Japan for dominance in East Asia. In focusing on
the wrongs done by Imperial Japan before and during World War II, China’s
government has escalated
its claims to uninhabited islands in the East China Sea controlled by Japan
and has designated airspace in the area as its own.
----China has plenty of ways to poke its neighbor. Determined to leave no grievance unaired, China has opened a fresh front in its battle against Japan: A group has demanded the return of a 1,300-year-old relic that Japanese soldiers whisked away from China’s northeast a century ago. The Honglujing Stele, three meters wide, 1.8 meters tall, and two meters thick, dates back to the Tang Dynasty and now belongs to Japan’s Emperor, according to the official Xinhua news agency.
A group called the China Federation of Demanding Compensation from Japan is now demanding that the Emperor give it back. Stolen items such as the Honglujing Stele “have done great damage to Sino-Japanese ties,” Wang Jinsi, the federation official in charge of recovering cultural relics, told Xinhua. “They should be returned to their rightful owner.”
That may be, but Wang’s group has chosen an interesting time to make its point. As Xinhua points out, Japanese troops went on a rampage in the mainland in the 50 years between China’s defeat in the First Sino-Japanese War and the end of the Second World War, with Japan stealing some 3.6 million relics. Only now is the Chinese group calling on the imperial family to return one of them.
Pressing the claim is smart politics for China. The loss of the relics was indeed a great injustice. Even if Japan doesn’t return them, China’s government can score points with its citizenry by standing up to Japan. That seems to be a goal of President Xi Jinping and other leaders, who have been taking a far more aggressive stance against not only Japan but the Philippines and Vietnam, with which China has separate territorial disputes. By whipping up nationalist fervor, the government may boost its credibility with many Chinese.
And what of the group’s letter demanding the return of the Honglujing Stele? According to Xinhua, Emperor Akihito has yet to write back.
"The gold standard, in one form or another, will prevail long after the present rash of national fiats is forgotten or remembered only in currency museums."
Hans F. Sennholz
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished July.
DJIA: +157 Down. NASDAQ: +318 Down. SP500: +232 Down. The Fed’s final bubble has taken on a
very scary wobble, but this is nothing compared to the return of real interest
rates at some point ahead.
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