Baltic Dry Index. 879 -06
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
The principal cause of the crisis was the dismantling of the
system of regulation and supervision in the financial sector which had for much
of the post-war period kept the most dangerous elements of that sector in
check. In the absence of an appropriate system of effective supervision and
regulation, what happens is that the actors in the system, who are intent upon
taking the greatest degree of risk — including actors who are intent upon using
fraudulent methods to increase their returns — come to dominate parts of the
system.
J. K. Galbraith. The New Deal.
Poor Italy. Exactly what they did to offend
the gods isn’t known, but whatever it was, the gods have retaliated by turning
disgraced former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi into the King maker. In politics
as usual in Italy, the Democratic Party dumped its leader last Friday, allowing
Enrico Letta the new leader of the party to strike a deal with Berlusconi’s
People of Liberty party, to then both reappoint 87 year old Giorgio Napolitano
as President. In return Napolitano then called on Letta to form a government
with Berlusconi in support. Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement, the reform
party, wasn’t consulted. “A
failure to strike a deal could prompt Napolitano to call snap elections,”
posits Bloomberg.
Hardly.
Last February Italians voted against politics as usual. This back room fix,
excluding FSM, will likely promote FSM into winning any snap election called
for later this year. Both parties entering into an unofficial weak coalition
know this, and now need each other for the near term. An uneasy period of minor
token reform now seems likely with all parties now positioning for electoral
advantage at the next election, probably sometime next year. The markets
rewarded this development by dropping Italy’s borrowing rate. A great
complacent disconnect it seems to me. Italy’s new government is in no way able
to bring in real reform, challenge outdated union practices, nor tackle the
black economy. Italy’s too big to fail, yet too big to bail economy will merely
stagger along getting worse for another year. Despite politics as usual, Italy
remains the most likely nuke to first detonate in Club Med.
“In politics, stupidity is not a handicap.”
Napoleon Bonaparte.
Italy Led by Letta Brings Berlusconi Back to Governing as Winner
By Andrew
Frye & Alessandra Migliaccio - Apr 24, 2013 11:01 PM GMT
Silvio Berlusconi,
the three-time prime minister and two-time convicted lawbreaker, won a path
back to power in Italy by outmaneuvering rivals during an eight- week political
stalemate. A year and a half after resigning in near-disgrace, the 76- year-old billionaire became the key figure in talks to form the next Cabinet after Enrico Letta of the Democratic Party was appointed prime minister yesterday. Berlusconi and his 241 lawmakers, the second-biggest contingent, hold the votes Letta, 46, needs to secure a parliamentary majority.
Berlusconi is one of the last of his
generation standing after outgoing Premier Mario Monti,
70, was rejected by voters in February and 61-year-old Pier Luigi Bersani was
discarded in a Democratic Party mutiny.
----Inconclusive
Feb. 24-25 elections split parliament in three blocs and left the Democratic
Party, the top vote getter, with no clear path to the majority it needs to
succeed Monti. The party, known as the PD, initially refused to consider a deal
with Berlusconi while Bersani fruitlessly pursued Beppe Grillo’s Five Star
Movement, the third-biggest force.
That
strategy failed, and Bersani conceded defeat April 19. The next day, Berlusconi
and the PD eased the deadlock by joining to re-appoint President Giorgio
Napolitano, 87, to a seven-year term. Letta’s mandate, given by the president
after consultations with party leaders except Grillo, who has renounced
traditional politics, signalled a broader accord.
----Representatives of Berlusconi’s People of Liberty party are due to meet Letta and his PD allies today to seek common ground on a government program and divide up Cabinet positions. A failure to strike a deal could prompt Napolitano to call snap elections.
“The Letta government is an opportunity for Berlusconi to regroup, catch his breath and prepare for the next round of elections,” said Federico Niglia, international history professor at Rome’s Luiss University.
More.
Elsewhere in Europe, in the second most likely nuke economy to detonate in Club Med, gloom has long since turned into doom. Not to worry though, there’s a light at the end of Renault’s tunnel. Chief Financial Officer Dominique Thormann said yesterday on a conference call with analysts. Industry deliveries in the region are probably “not far from the bottom.” Still optimism from a man who never saw Europe’s auto sales car crash coming, isn’t something you might want to rely on in court later. With the euro busy killing Europe, and rising unemployment across Euroland, to this observer on the right side of the English Chanel, there’s every reason to believe Europe’s car market contraction will go on for a seventh year. Perhaps the ECB could buy every Cypriot a Renault to make up for the theft of their bank deposits. It’s a funny old world on wealth destroying, one size fits all, Bilderberger fiat euros.
Renault First-Quarter Revenue Falls 12% on European Drop
By Mathieu Rosemain - Apr 24, 2013 11:01 PM GMT
Renault SA
(RNO), France’s
second-biggest carmaker, said first-quarter revenue fell 12 percent as an
intensifying car-market contraction in Europe that’s now
in its sixth year overwhelmed delivery growth outside the region. Sales dropped to 8.27 billion euros ($10.7 billion) from a restated 9.37 billion euros a year earlier, the Boulogne- Billancourt, France-based company said yesterday in a statement. Revenue was less than the 8.57 billion-euro average of 11 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Renault and larger competitor PSA
Peugeot Citroen (UG) cut their forecasts for industrywide European car
sales in 2013 as a recession in the 17 countries that use the euro pushed the
automotive market in Europe to a two-decade low. Renault reiterated targets for
its carmaking division of a positive operating margin and positive free cash flow this
year.
---- The European car-market contraction also contributed to first-quarter operating-profit declines of 26 percent at Volkswagen AG (VOW), the region’s largest auto manufacturer, and 56 percent at Daimler AG, owner of the Mercedes-Benz luxury brand. Daimler reduced its full-year forecast for earnings before interest, taxes and one-time items yesterday, saying profit will fall rather than match the 2012 level.
Renault’s margin and cash-flow forecasts depend on no further worsening in the European car market, Chief Financial Officer Dominique Thormann said yesterday on a conference call with analysts. Industry deliveries in the region are probably “not far from the bottom,” he said.
More
Elsewhere in the on-going tragedy known as Europe,
hapless Slovenians aka the next Cypriots, have just days to get their money out of
Slovenian banks. One way that just might work, is to cut a good deal with the
local impoverished Renault dealership. After the bank deposits get seized later
in May, the vehicles can always be driven over the border towards Germany,
exchanged there for euro notes marked with the magic “X”. Alternatively, it
might just be easier to buy physical gold in Austria. Either way, unless
Frankfurt or dim witted Americans come through ala Jon Corzine, Slovenia is
well on its way to get “Cyprussed.”
“Life is tough but it’s tougher when you're stupid”
John Wayne.
Slovenian Banks Need $1.2 Billion by July 31, May Require More
By Boris Cerni - Apr 24, 2013 11:23 PM GMT
Slovenian banks including Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d and Nova
Kreditna Banka Maribor d.d. will need a capital injection of at least 900
million euros ($1.2 billion) by the end of July as the government works to fix
the banking industry without seeking outside aid. The government of Prime Minister Alenka Bratusek, in power for five weeks, included a list of priorities in a draft document posted yesterday on the website of the parliament in Ljubljana. It said the plan will be sent to European officials by May 9.
“We don’t have the final cost of the bank recapitalization, but we estimate banks need to be recapitalized by July 31 with 900 million euros,” the government said in the draft. Lenders may need more, depending on how the Slovenian economy develops and how much money will be transfered to a bad bank currently being set up, it said.
---- In addition to any capital injection, the government plans to exchange bad loans for as much as 4 billion euros of state- guaranteed bonds.
---- Slovenia, rated Baa2 at Moody’s Investors Service, is carrying out a roadshow in the U.S. to check investor interest for another debt sale as it seeks to aid banks and finance the budget.
More
We end for the day in dismal Euroland, with
even the Germans now getting infected like Holland by Club Med. Renault
optimism anyone?
German business gloom grows as export markets wobble
BERLIN |(Reuters) - German business sentiment in April was worse than the most pessimistic of forecasts, falling for the second consecutive month as Europe's largest economy was undermined by both its euro zone and Chinese export markets.
Munich-based Ifo think tank said on Wednesday its business climate index, based on a survey of some 7,000 firms, fell to 104.4 in April from 106.7 in March.
It came a day after a preliminary purchasing managers' survey showed Germany's private sector contracted in April, bolstering the case for the European Central Bank to cut interest rates at its meeting next week.
The Ifo report pushed the euro down to its lowest in nearly three weeks against the dollar while Bunds edged up briefly.
"The sharp dip in Germany's Ifo index marks another nail in the coffin for stronger recovery this year," said David Brown at New View Economics. "Germany will be very lucky to avoid a near term recession in the recent two quarters."
The German economy long fought off the euro zone crisis that sent much of the rest of the bloc into recession but contracted in the final quarter of 2012. Data now point to it struggling to leave that gloom behind, especially because of weakness in the Chinese economy which had proved a strong alternative market.
More
There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history counts for
so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is
part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not
have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.
J. K. Galbraith
At the Comex silver depositories Wednesday final figures were: Registered 39.14
Moz, Eligible 128.18 Moz, Total 167.18 Moz.
Crooks and
Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
Today, thanks to Congressman Ruppersberger, we now all know where to get
the knowhow to build and detonate an anti-personnel bomb. Why not make it
really easy for the murderously inclined in the wider world.
“He had just about enough intelligence to open his mouth when he
wanted to eat, but certainly no more.”
P. G. Wodehouse.
Boston bombs were detonated by remote used for toy cars
WASHINGTON
| Wed Apr 24, 2013 8:25pm EDT
(Reuters)
- The two bombs that went off at the Boston Marathon, killing three people and
wounding 264, were detonated with the kind of remote device used to control a
toy car, U.S. investigators told a House of Representatives panel on Wednesday.
"It
was a remote control for toy cars," U.S. Representative Dutch
Ruppersberger, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, told
reporters after officials from the Department of Homeland Security, FBI and
National Center for Counterterrorism briefed the committee.
"Which says to me, and brother number two has said, they got the information on how to build the bomb from Inspire magazine," Ruppersberger added.
Inspire was created by the American-Yemeni preacher Anwar al-Awlaki, a leader of al Qaeda's affiliate in Yemen who was killed in a U.S. drone strike.
Ruppersberger said the article on bomb-building in Inspire was headlined: "How to build a bomb in your mom's kitchen."
More
U.S. had more tips on Boston suspect; Congress asks questions
WASHINGTON/CAMBRIDGE, Massachusetts |(Reuters) - U.S. intelligence was alerted when one of the Boston bombing suspects traveled to a volatile region of Russia last year, U.S. officials said on Wednesday, raising new questions about the government's handling of the case and how well law enforcement agencies share information and cooperate with one another.
The trip by the suspect, Tamerlan Tsarnaev, to southern Russia has come under scrutiny over whether he became involved with or was influenced by Chechen separatists or Islamic militants there, according to U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Russia, which tipped off the FBI in early 2011 with concerns that Tsarnaev may have been a radical Islamist, made a second, identical request to the CIA in late September of the same year, they said. The FBI interviewed Tsarnaev following the first tip and found no serious threat.
More
“Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and
I'm not sure about the universe.”
Albert Einstein.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished March:
DJIA: +119 Up. NASDAQ: +132 Up. SP500: +157 Up. Another Fed bubble, but now it’s challenged.
No comments:
Post a Comment