IMF Pie in the Sky.

Baltic Dry Index. 880 +04

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

"For more than two thousand years gold's natural qualities made it man's universal medium of exchange. In contrast to political money, gold is honest money that survived the ages and will live on long after the political fiats of today have gone the way of all paper."

Hans F. Sennholz

More on IMF pie in the sky later, first this.

The gold market was just rigged lower, and mainstream media for once noticed! Cui bono comes to mind. In the lawless age of the 21^st century, don’t expect any alphabet soup agency to investigate. The 1 percent just fleeced the other 99 percent, and enjoyed every second of separating the Muppets from their fictitious futures contract wealth. It’s why I only advocate buying physical gold and silver and getting delivery.

But the 1 percent have overplayed their hand. Thanks to their unbridled avarice, some gold mines will now close laying off their miners. While that might not matter in the USA, where we are all told a major recovery is underway and happy days are here again, in South Africa it just blew up any chance of the miners getting a wage increase in the coming round of wage negotiations. The 1 percent just made a direct attack on Africa’s miners. I doubt if China, the world’s largest gold miner, failed to notice the blatant rigging by US interests too. The coming G-20 meeting is quite likely to be “interesting”.  What’s good for the USA goose, is about to become good for China and others, gander. Two can play at rigging markets and the USA is especially vulnerable. The lawlessness is about to increase. More MF Global’s looks to be the future in our new era of blatant market rigging. China and the gang were just highly incentivised Friday and Monday, to bring forward dropping the dollar.

"When paper money systems begin to crack at the seams, the run to gold could be explosive."

Harry Browne

The gold price crash is further evidence of market rigging

By Thomas Pascoe Economics Last updated: April 16th, 2013
The facts in the public domain do not justify the sharp fall in the gold price over the past two trading days. At the time of writing, the price per 100oz is $1363, down over $200 since Friday's open. The scale of the sell-off was the worst in 30 years, with the volatility index standing at the highest level in its history. John Kemp at Reuters has calculated that based on a normal distribution, you would expect to see movements like Monday's only once in every 500 million trading days, or two million years. The news which would justify such a price swing is curiously absent – in fact, my view is that the market ought to be bullish for gold. Something doesn't add up.

In any market, price is determined by the confluence of demand and supply. In many respects  supply of gold is relatively fixed. We know the extent of discovered gold reserves and the rate of production. While Cyprus is being forced to dump "excess" gold in order to meet the ever escalating bank bail-out bill, its whole holdings are worth only $750m, hardly enough to move one of the worlds deepest and most liquid markets to this degree.

In fact, most of the selling pressure has come from ETFs dumping holdings. A record $9.2bn of net outflows from gold ETFs in the first three months of 2013 are indicative of a loss of faith on the part of investors, as well as of a structural change in a market which has been opened up to electronic trading by the invention of these instruments.

But why would investors wish to sell their gold holdings? As an alternative store of value, it is easiest to think of demand for gold in terms of demand and supply of fiat money. When demand for fiat money falls or supply rises, people decide to hold less and move their cash into alternative stores (gold, silver and now Bitcoins being the most common)

----Well, the world's stock of fiat money is not contracting. Quite the opposite, in fact. Japan has just launched stimulus on steroids which will see the developed world's most indebted economy create a proposed $1.4 trillion in Yen in a bid to break free from depression. Nor is money creation in the West likely to subside. Earlier this month the Fed hinted it would continue buying bonds for the foreseeable future, while there is an expectation in London that Mark Carney's arrival at the Bank of England will see more activist monetary policy here, too.
More
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/thomaspascoe/100024081/the-gold-price-crash-is-further-evidence-of-market-rigging/

Gold Bears Scarce in India as Rout Lures Buyers to Bazaar

By Swansy Afonso - Apr 17, 2013 6:38 AM GMT

Gold buyers in India, the world’s biggest consumer, are flocking to stores to buy jewelry and coins, betting a selloff that plunged bullion to a two-year low may be overdone.

“My daughter is just six months old, but I think it is never too early to buy gold,” said Sharmila Shirodkar, a 28- year-old housewife, while displaying a new pair of earrings she bought from a store in Mumbai’s Zaveri Bazaar. “I had been asking my husband every day if prices will go down more. I couldn’t wait anymore.”

While the drop in gold prompted investors worldwide to pare holdings in exchange-traded products, surging physical demand in India may help stem the 18 percent slide in prices this year. The plunge after rallying for 12 straight years may make bullion more affordable to Indians, according to Mehul Choksi, chief executive officer of Gitanjali Gems Ltd. (GITG), the nation’s biggest retailer of jewelry and diamonds by sales.

“This is a perfect time to buy as prices will only go up from here,” said Vishal Mehta, a 33-year-old garment dealer, while ordering coins from Choksi V. Naginchand & Co. in Zaveri Bazaar. “I usually buy one gold coin a month, but this time I am buying two.”
More
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-16/gold-bears-scarce-in-india-as-selloff-lures-shoppers-to-bazaars.html

Central bank stimulus under the spotlight at IMF, G20

MEXICO CITY/WASHINGTON | Wed Apr 17, 2013 1:07am EDT
(Reuters) - Global policymakers will discuss the impact of unprecedented monetary policy easing at meetings in Washington this week along with the softly-softly approach central banks will need to eventually wean the world off super-cheap funds.

The Bank of Japan has joined other major central banks in aggressive policy stimulus, pledging to inject $1.4 trillion over the next two years and fanning tensions over currency wars.

Officials preparing for Group of 20 talks on the sidelines of World Bank and International Monetary Fund meetings said Japan's stimulus would dominate discussions on the world economy, especially the repercussions on asset prices and risks of stoking speculative buying.

"Everyone is interested in a strong Japanese economy, but the repercussions of these measures and their viability need to be explored," one G20 official said on condition of anonymity.
More
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/17/us-global-economy-idUSBRE93G05L20130417

Now back to pie in the sky from the morally challenged IMF in Washington. “If Europe's debt crisis doesn't worsen, a U.S. rebound takes hold, and robust growth in China will drive a 4% global expansion next year, it said.” Well maybe, but if the Queen had other attributes she would be King. With immature logic like this in the IMF in Washington, there’s a real danger that they soon will own a bridge in Brooklyn.

"We need only take our heads out of the sand to see clearly that interventionism not only has failed to provide the promised something-for-nothing, but has led to all sorts of undesirable consequences. Indeed, many are just beginning to realize that we are moving towards disaster even though we have been on a wrong heading for decades."

Leonard Read

Updated April 16, 2013, 10:26 a.m. ET

IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecasts

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its economic forecasts around the globe as Europe's persistent recession and a spring swoon in the U.S. economy are hurting the prospects of the recovery this year.

In its World Economic Outlook, the IMF lowered the estimate for global economic growth by 0.2 percentage point to 3.3%, or only slightly more than last year's expansion. One exception: Japan, where the IMF says loose monetary policy and fiscal stimulus are boosting growth expectations.

The IMF said it expects the U.S. economy to expand by 1.9% this year, weighed down by new taxes and budget cuts the fund deems too harsh during a recovery. The IMF expects the current U.S. spending cuts will be replaced by more paced budget belt-tightening and sees the U.S. growing at 3% in 2014.

The IMF sees quicker growth in the second half of the year. If Europe's debt crisis doesn't worsen, a U.S. rebound takes hold, and robust growth in China will drive a 4% global expansion next year, it said.

"Global economic prospects have improved again but the road to recovery in the advanced economies will remain bumpy," the report said.

----The IMF said in its report that Europe's woes are dragging down the rest of the world, as fiscal austerity in the euro zone is retarding growth more than expected. The IMF says governments need to slow down the pace of budget cuts. At the same time, euro states must assure investors that debt can be lowered to healthy levels by taking politically tough decisions to restructure their economies.

The IMF now expects the French economy to contract this year, instead of expanding, as in said in its January forecasts. Output in Italy and Spain is now forecast to shrink by roughly 1.5% this year.

The euro crisis has required four IMF bailouts and forced a protracted recession. Economic weakness is spreading from the smaller, weaker economies to the core countries, the fund said.

More

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323346304578426502903053768.html?mod=WSJEurope_hpp_LEFTTopStories

We end for the day with the feeling that perhaps happy days aren’t here again in America. Is the City of Brotherly Love solvent or what? What are the great Vampire Squids and politicians planning that requires closed backroom meetings? What is relly happening in the Quaker City?

"Too bad ninety percent of the politicians give the other ten percent a bad reputation."

Henry Kissinger.

Philadelphia Holds Closed Meeting With Wall Street

By Romy Varghese - Apr 17, 2013 4:28 AM GMT

Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter, whose municipality has the lowest credit rating of the five most-populous U.S. cities, will address investors at a conference financed by underwriters and closed to the public and the press.

The invitation bills tomorrow’s meeting as a chance to hear “Philadelphia leaders and investors discuss building the city’s future.” In addition to Nutter, a 55-year-old Democrat, speakers will include finance director Rob Dubow and Mark Gale, chief executive officer of Philadelphia International Airport, according to the agenda.

Philadelphia is hoping to attract investors for the city, which is rated three steps above junk by Standard & Poor’s. The city and its authorities have $8.75 billion in outstanding debt as of September, according to bond documents. Philadelphia’s pension system is 47.6 percent funded this year, the documents say.

Tours of city assets are set for the second day of the conference, including the Philadelphia Gas Works, the largest municipally owned natural-gas utility in the U.S. The city plans to hire a broker to steer the sale of the system, which may fetch as much as $496 million, according to Lazard Ltd. (LAZ)

“It is a private meeting,” said Mark McDonald, a spokesman for Nutter. Underwriters pledged to cover the $8,500 cost of the conference, he said by telephone. McDonald said the donors will be made public when the city receives the full amount.

----Bloomberg News wrote Nutter April 4 objecting to the press’s exclusion from the conference. The Associated Press, the Philadelphia Inquirer, and the Arlington, Virginia-based nonprofit Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press have supported the protest.

Philadelphia, where more than a quarter of the population of 1.5 million lives in poverty, carries ratings by the three major companies that are the lowest for the top five most populous cities.

More

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-17/philadelphia-holds-closed-meeting-with-wall-street.html

"The international monetary order is more precarious by far today than it was in 1929. Then, gold was international money, incorruptible, unmanageable, and unchangeable. Today, the U.S. dollar serves as the international medium of exchange, managed by Washington politicians and Federal Reserve officials, manipulated from day to day, and serving political goals and ambitions. This difference alone sounds the alarm to all perceptive observers."

Hans F. Sennholz

At the Comex silver depositories Tuesday final figures were: Registered 41.91 Moz, Eligible 123.37 Moz, Total 165.28 Moz.  

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over. 

Today, when seriously bent European banksters fall out. Michele Sindona, Roberto Calvi, bricks,  frati neri and Blackfriars bridge in London, come to mind, though the 1982 scaffolding is long gone. A return to the good old days of Italian banking.

"The secret of life is honesty and fair dealing. If you can fake that, you've got it made."

Mario Draghi, with apologies to Groucho Marx.

April 16, 2013, 6:20 a.m. ET

Italian Police Seize $2.35 Billion From Nomura in MPS Probe

MILAN—Italian financial police have seized €1.8 billion ($2.35 billion) from Banca Nomura International PLC, a unit of Nomura Holdings Inc., 8604.TO -0.90% as part of an investigation into Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, BMPS.MI +1.73% prosecutors from the town of Siena said Tuesday.

Prosecutors also said they have placed Sadeq Sayeed and Raffaele Ricci under investigation over potential obstruction of supervisory authority and potential violation of market rules while they were Nomura executives.

"I vigorously deny all allegations," Mr. Sayeed said. Mr. Ricci couldn't be immediately located for comment. A spokeswoman for Nomura declined to comment on the probe, but confirmed that Mr. Sayeed left Nomura in March 2010. She declined to comment on Mr. Ricci's position at the bank or whether he was still employed by the bank.

Nomura is Monte dei Paschi's counterpart in a structured products transaction dubbed Alexandria, which is at the center of the investigation into the Italian bank.

Prosecutors also said that police have seized money from three former executives of the Tuscan bank. They said they seized €2.3 million from former Monte dei Paschi's Executive Chairman Giuseppe Mussari, €9.9 million from former General Manager Antonio Vigni and €2.2 million from former executive Gianluca Baldassarri.

In addition, prosecutors said police have seized all existing contracts related to the so-called Alexandria transaction.

Monte dei Paschi and lawyers for Mr. Mussari, Mr. Vigni and Mr. Baldassarri didn't immediately reply to requests for comment.

Nomura said in January: "Nomura acted fairly and responsibly with the client at all times, and strongly refutes any suggestion to the contrary."

Prosecutors said Tuesday that the seizures from Nomura related to alleged aggravated usury and alleged aggravated fraud against Monte dei Paschi on the Alexandria transaction.

Prosecutors said the seizures include €1.7 billion of collateral given by the Italian bank to Nomura for a loan that relates to the Alexandria transaction and €88 million in commissions received by Nomura.

The seizures come after Italian police searched Nomura's offices in Milan on March 27, as part of the investigation into potential wrongdoing related to Alexandria.

Monte dei Paschi sued Nomura on March 1 to recoup losses on Alexandria. The same day Nomura filed a claim against Monte dei Paschi in the U.K. seeking a declaration by a London court that the contracts relative to the transaction are valid.

The Italian bank has said that the Alexandria transaction was incorrectly represented in its accounts. In November, Monte dei Paschi launched a review that found the bank had to book a loss of €273.5 million on the Alexandria transaction.

More

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324030704578426181947134270.html?mod=WSJUK_hpp_LEFTTopWhatNews

"We are in a world of irredeemable paper money - a state of affairs unprecedented in history."

John Exter

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished March:

DJIA: +119 Up. NASDAQ: +132 Up. SP500: +157 Up.  Another Fed bubble, but now it’s challenged.