Baltic Dry Index. 751 +04
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
"The most puzzling development in politics during the last decade is the apparent determination of Western European leaders to re-create the Soviet Union in Western Europe."
Mikhail Gorbachev
For more on President Obama’s merger bid for
the sclerotic, socialist, Eurocratic, Bilderberger EUSSR, scroll down to Crook’s
Corner.
We open today with Euroland’s second largest
economy in deep trouble. Too big to bail or fail France, seems to be dropping
into a new recession. But massive tax
increases are coming to France this year, likely to make any recession deep. To
quote from the ever interesting website Zerohedge.com
In its
just released annual report, France’s state auditor, the Cour des Comptes, told
the government that it was dreaming. Its forecast of 0.8% growth for 2013 was
way high. Try 0.3%. And forget about the budget deficit target of 3% of GDP,
which had been based on that illusory 0.8% growth. And even if growth
came in at 0.8%, the deficit would still be above that all-important 3%.
To get to
the deficit target, the government had raised a slew of taxes to extract
another €32 billion this year from households and businesses that are already
gasping for air.
"When it becomes serious, you have to lie"
Jean-Claude Juncker. Luxembourg Prime Minister and Ex-president of the Euro Group of Finance Ministers. Confessed liar.
French GDP Shrinks as Hollande Faces Job Cuts, Recession Risk
By Mark Deen - Feb 14, 2013 6:30 AM GMT
The French economy shrank in the fourth quarter as manufacturers slashed
thousands of jobs and President Francois Hollande struggled to
keep the nation from falling back into recession for the first time since 2009.
Gross domestic product dropped 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous three months when it climbed 0.1 percent, the national statistics office Insee in Paris said today in an e-mailed statement. Economists had forecast a 0.2 percent drop, according to the median of 28 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. GDP fell 0.3 percent from a year earlier.
France, like others among the 17 nations using the euro, is suffering in the wake of the region’s sovereign debt crisis. Yet while neighboring Germany is showing signs of recovery in confidence, exports and manufacturing, Hollande is grappling with tens of thousands of job cuts in companies such as Renault SA and an economy that has barely grown in more than a year.
“Recent macro data suggest that France may be about to significantly underperform the rest of the region,” JPMorgan Chase economists David Mackie, Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Alex White said in a note to clients. “While the rest of the region looks to be stepping up at the start of the year, France looks to be stepping down.”
----The quarter is only the second since the first three months of 2009 in which French GDP has declined. Economists expect output to drop again in the current period, putting France in recession, Bloomberg Surveys show.
With jobless claims at a 15-year high and a trade deficit that was the second-largest on record last year, Hollande has pledged to slash government spending by 60 billion euros ($81 billion) over five years, put in place a cut in payroll taxes and is easing labor regulation in a bid to improve competitiveness.
More
Next, take pity on the hapless Euroland tax slaves,
they’re about to hosed again.. In
austerity ravaged Euroland, is raising new taxes really going to help solve
Europe’s lack of growth problem. My guess is it will just quickly add to Europe’s
rising unemployment problem. There’s no such thing as a free lunch. The Great
Vampire Squids of Wall Street, and the City-Slicker Spivs of London, will
quickly find a way around the new taxes. Below that, Germany joins France in
GDP contraction. Not to worry say the spinmeisters, The German recovery is
already underway. Time will tell, I suppose.
The trouble with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money.
Margaret Thatcher.
EU Seeks Broad Transaction Tax to Curb Rules ‘Patchwork’
By Rebecca Christie - Feb 14, 2013 1:52 AM GMT
The European Union will propose a far-reaching tax on financial transactions
which could be collected worldwide as soon as Jan. 1 next year by the 11
nations that have so far signed up to participate. The plan by the EU in Brussels, to be outlined today, invokes “residence” and “issuance” ties to firms in participating countries, in a bid to prevent traders from escaping the levy by trading outside the tax’s zone, according to documents obtained by Bloomberg News. The plan says that to escape the proposed tax entirely, firms in other nations would have to entirely cease financial-services business with the 11 EU nations involved.
The proposal marks a new stage in the EU’s efforts to raise revenue from the financial sector and curb what it sees as a “patchwork” of local levies. Like a prior, failed proposal for all 27 EU nations, today’s plan would set a rate of 0.1% for stock and bond trades and 0.01% on derivatives trades.
The EU estimates the arrangement could raise 30 billion euros ($40 billion) to 35 billion euros per year. It would need approval by the 11 participants to proceed. All EU nations can sit in on the talks and have the option to join.
The proposals would exclude certain types of trading from the scope of the tax: day-to-day transactions by individuals and non-financial firms; primary offerings of stocks and bonds; and trades with central banks, the European Stability Mechanism and other official institutions. According to EU documents, it also would exclude trades in units of collective investment funds along with certain restructuring operations.
----The plan also would include pension
funds. The EU intends to argue that a well-designed tax could make pension
funds safer by encouraging them to make untaxed purchases on the primary market
and hold securities to maturity, the documents show.
----While the U.S. will study the proposal, it doesn’t
support the European financial transactions tax, according to a U.S. Treasury
Department spokeswoman who asked to not be named. The tax would harm U.S.
investors who bought affected securities, a concern that Treasury officials
have raised with their European counterparts, the spokeswoman said.
More
German Economy Contracted More Than Forecast in 4Q
By Jeff Black - Feb 14, 2013 7:20 AM GMT
The German economy, Europe’s largest, shrank more than economists forecast
in the fourth quarter as exports declined. Gross domestic product fell 0.6 percent from the third quarter, when it gained 0.2 percent, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. That’s more than the 0.5 percent contraction predicted in a Bloomberg News survey of 47 economists
----Germany’s Bundesbank in December lowered
its growth forecast for this year to 0.4 percent, citing the knock-on effects
of the sovereign debt crisis that has tipped the euro region into recession.
Still, there are signs Germany is already rebounding from its fourth-quarter
slump, with business and investor confidence rising more then forecast in
January and unemployment unexpectedly dropping.
More
Next Japan, just in time for the start of tomorrow’s G-20 finance ministers meeting in Moscow, Japan’s Q4 12 GDP figure shows that Japan was still stuck in a mild recession. Light cover for Japan’s currency war attempt to devalue the yen. Unfortunately for Japan, the latest figure also show Japan’s exports recovering and Japan likely to recover from recession this quarter, likely to create friction with the USA, China, France and Germany.
Japan fourth-quarter GDP shows economy still in recession, pick-up eyed
TOKYO |(Reuters) - Japan's economy contracted for the third consecutive quarter in October-December, showing the country is struggling to escape from a mild recession and adding weight to the new government's push for radical policy steps to revive growth.
Gross domestic product (GDP) fell 0.1 percent in October-December from the previous quarter, compared with the median forecast of 0.1 percent expansion, according to a Reuters poll.
----Looking to kickstart the economy and end two decades of deflation, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe plans to combine the country's biggest stimulus spending since the financial crisis with aggressive monetary policy easing.
"Data show that overseas economies are recovering, so we expect Japan to return to growth in the first quarter. A weak yen will also help exporters," said Shuji Tonouchi, senior fixed income strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.
More
The Japanese Banking Crisis
According
to inside contacts, the Japanese banking crisis shows no signs of ameliorating.
If anything, it's getting worse.
Following last week's news that Origami Bank had folded, we are hearing that Sumo Bank has gone belly up and Bonsai Bank plans to cut back some of its branches.
Karaoke Bank is up for sale and is (you guessed it!) going for a song.
Meanwhile, shares in Kamikaze Bank have nose-dived and 500 back-office staff at Karate Bank got the chop.
Analysts report that there is something fishy going on at Sushi Bank and staff there fear they may get a raw deal.
Following last week's news that Origami Bank had folded, we are hearing that Sumo Bank has gone belly up and Bonsai Bank plans to cut back some of its branches.
Karaoke Bank is up for sale and is (you guessed it!) going for a song.
Meanwhile, shares in Kamikaze Bank have nose-dived and 500 back-office staff at Karate Bank got the chop.
Analysts report that there is something fishy going on at Sushi Bank and staff there fear they may get a raw deal.
Anon.
At the Comex silver depositories Wednesday final figures were: Registered 36.92
Moz, Eligible 122.64 Moz, Total 159.56 Moz.
Crooks and
Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
Today, President
Obama’s bid to drag the USA kicking and screaming into a merger with “the envy
of the world,” the European Union. Ironically, UK Prime Minister “Homosexual
Marriage” Cameron, who’s proposing to lead the UK out of the EU in 2017,
pledged Britain to do everything it could to help broker the difficult talks. No I am not
making any of this lunacy up. But why stop there? Why not merge the fiat dollar
with the fiat euro? Unfortunately the title Eurodollar is already taken, but we
might get away with calling it the Ruddle, in anticipation of yet another
merger further down the road.
If American’s think that they have problems now, just wait until some
faraway court stuffed with continentals in obscure Strasbourg, starts bossing
them around in Dallas, and orders them to hang up their guns. My guess is that
this is just the last desperate ploy to try to keep the fast dying euro
monetary union alive. To try to keep the UK contributing to the ever less
democratic EU. Obama for EUSSR President in 2017?
This ailing continent needs newer and better politicians. But where could we find them? There is no sign of a European Obama or anything remotely like him.
Der Spiegel.
Europe and US pledge to create world’s biggest trading bloc
The European Union and America are to open negotiations with the aim of creating the world’s biggest free trade area worth €86bn (£75bn) within two years.
The talks
have been heralded as a “game-changer” that could help kick-start stagnant or
contracting European economies back into growth by adding 0.5pc to GDP every
year.
David
Cameron pledged that Britain, which currently chairs the G8 group of countries,
would do everything it could to help broker the difficult talks.
“Breaking
down the remaining trade barriers and securing a comprehensive deal will
require hard work and bold decisions on both sides,” the Prime Minister said.
EU and US
economies account for nearly half of the world’s economic output and a third of
global trade, meaning that a transatlantic free-trade bloc would hold great
sway over emerging economic superpowers China, Brazil and India.
The talks
are expected to be arduous, as trade relations and negotiations between the US
and EU have previously been hindered by disputes over market access, regulations
and non-tariff barriers, which are often used to protect domestic markets.
Agriculture
is also likely to prove a major sticking point, since the US and many EU
countries, notably France and those in southern Europe, protect their farming
interests and exports. Last week, the EU and Canada failed to resolve problems
holding up a free trade pact, with agriculture among “a number of important
gaps to be bridged”.
John
Cridland, the director-general of the CBI, said: “It’s crucial that both sides now
roll up their sleeves and begin formal negotiations. One of the best
opportunities to create jobs and stimulate long-term growth is through major
trade deals, which make it easier for UK firms and their overseas counterparts
to do business.”
José Manuel
Barroso, the European Commission president, hailed President Barack Obama’s
commitment in Tuesday’s State of the Union address to EU-US trade talks as “an
assurance that we mean business”. “It shows that the EU and the US are
strategic partners who are ready to go the extra mile to strengthen their
economies,” he said.
Mr
Barroso expressed hope that negotiations could begin in the first half of this
year with a two-year deadline to reach an agreement.
More
“Reviewing
someone’s first novel, it is customary to be polite about it,” started Philip
Hensher in The Observer. “So let me say straight away that James Thackara’s The
Book of Kings is printed on very nice paper, and the typeface is clear and
readable.”
The
Observer Book Review October 2000.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished January:
DJIA: +106 Up. NASDAQ: +126 Up. SP500: +140 Up. All three indexes are giving the same signal,
up.
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