Baltic Dry Index. 741 -02
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
Italy is not technically part of the Third World, but no one has told the Italians.
P. J. O’Rourke
With QE forever back on again according to Dr.
Bernanke, the US stock market started a relief rally. The Fed is back targeting
stocks again, just like in the mid 1990s, in an effort to generate yet another
bubble which they hope will generate a trickle down, feel good, wealth factor.
As a plan to stimulate the real US economy and main street, its merely yet
another version of voodoo economics. Limited casino capitalism is back in Wall
Street, but US consumers are in no position to “shop till they drop” as in
1995-2005, no matter what the spin in the MarketWatch article below. The next
Lehman is still out there, as Dr. Bernanke and the Fed know only too well.
Tomorrow will not be like today which was like yesterday. Since the great 1987 stock market crash
caused by insane derivatives gambling, each Federal Reserve “fix” has merely
led to a bigger new bubble and crash. Now the Fed is busy generating the
biggest bubbles of all time. A mispriced credit bubble of unprecedented
proportions, and they are the global leaders in the Anglo-American driven
system of monetisation, aka quantitative easing, aka competitive devaluation.
Stay long precious metals for the long run. Japan
is just about to join in the QE currency wars in a massive way, while the Bernoccio
Fed is still monetising at a rate of over a trillion a year. The Great Nixonian
Error of fiat money is coming to its end, an end that always finishes in fiat
money revulsion eventually. This time round will be no different. Below, how
Bernoccio misled the Senate Muppets. Today, it’s time to put on the same dog
and pony show for the House.
"When it becomes serious, you have to lie"
Jean-Claude Juncker. Luxembourg Prime Minister and ex-president of the Euro Group of Finance Ministers. Confessed liar.
Feb. 26,
2013, 4:38 p.m. EST
U.S. stocks build gains on housing data
Retailers including Home Depot, Macy’s support Wall Street
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks rose Tuesday, recouping
much of the prior day’s slide, as evidence of a solid finish for housing in
2012 and after Ben Bernanke defended the Fed’s monetary policy.
Home Depot Inc. HD +5.69%
shares rallied after the retailer raised its dividend and approved a $17
billion stock buyback.
“The market is
bouncing back after yesterday’s big decline; the other part of it is we get a
bit of a bounce from Bernanke’s comments along the lines of continued QE
[quantitative easing],” Paul Nolte, managing director at Dearborn Partners in
Chicago, said of the Federal Reserve chairman’s testimony on Capitol Hill.
----Bernanke’s prepared testimony on
Capitol Hill had him reiterating his view that the benefits of the central bank’s
easing policy outweigh any costs.
---Commerce
Department figures showed new-home sales rising 15.6% last month to an annual
rate of 437,000, the highest mark since July 2008.
“Since
most people have their wealth tied up in their home, rising home prices make
consumers more confident, more creditworthy and more willing to spend acquired
income,” Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist at BTIG LLC, noted in an email.
More
Feb. 26, 2013, 4:41 p.m. EST
Bernanke: QE benefits clear, risks manageable
Fed chief says monetary policy is supporting the recovery
WASHINGTON
(MarketWatch) — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke sent a strong signal
Tuesday that he backed the continuation of the central bank’s $85 billion
bond-buying program.
“In the
current economic environment, the benefits of asset purchases […] are clear,”
Bernanke said in remarks to the Senate Banking Committee.
“The
bottom line is that it is QE3 until the job markets improve substantially,”
said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.
----Bernanke
said that Fed policy was not fostering a bubble in the stock market. “I don’t
see much evidence of an equity bubble,” he said.
Earnings
are very high, and equity holders are risk-averse in their behavior, Bernanke
said. But the Fed is on the lookout for excessive risk-taking, he said.
In his
testimony, Bernanke backed the new stimulus programs of Japan’s Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe. This signaled the Fed chairman is not worried about any so-called
currency war.
More
In Europe, Italy’s unemployed youth vote went anti-European
Monetary Union in droves. Will Silvio and Beppe now force Italy out of the disastrous
dying monetary union? Will sanity and the lira return to Italy? The Italians
are not and never will be model modern Germans. Nor are they Greeks. Club Med
plus France look likely to exit the euro this year or early next. Time to only
take euro notes marked with a German X. Italy’s voters just started the first
skirmish in the counter reformation. Stay long physical gold and silver.
How many more laws will the ECB trash before the
EUSSR comes to a long overdue end? We should find out later today, if the ECB
jumps through hoops to support Italy’s bond sale. Today we find out if Mario dei
Paschi has “whatever it takes.”
If at first you don't succeed, try again. Then quit. There's no use being a damn fool about it.
W.C. Fields
ECB bond plan in jeopardy as Italy's voters reject conditions
Italy's electoral earthquake is “a catastrophe for the euro and the European Union”, according to Luxembourg’s foreign minister, Jean Asselborn.
The
verdict was much the same in chancelleries across the eurozone, especially in
those countries already starting to feel the first wave of contagion.
“The
result touches us all,” said Spain’s foreign minister, Jose Manuel
Garcia-Margallo. “It is a jump into the void that bodes well for nobody,
neither for Italy, nor for the rest of Europe.”
Almost
57pc of the Italian vote went to parties that have vowed to tear up the EU
austerity script. Together they control a majority of senate seats.
The Five
Star movement of comedian Beppe Grillo, which won 25pc of the vote, has called
for a euro referendum and has a return to the lira as one of its manifesto
pledges, while ex-premier Silvio Berlusconi has threatened to pull Italy out of
the currency bloc unless the EU switches to a reflation strategy.
Even if
the centre-left leader, Pier Luigi Bersani, can put together a “grand
coalition” with Mr Berlusconi, there is no going back to the hairshirt regime
imposed by Mario Monti’s technocrat government at the EU’s behest over the past
15 months.
“A deal
with Monti is impossible,” said Mr Berlusconi on Tuesday. “His austerity
policies have put the country into a dangerous recessionary spiral, with rising
debt and unemployment, and the closure of a thousand firms a day.”
The great
fear is that the European Central Bank (ECB) will find it impossible to prop up
the Italian bond market under its Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) scheme
if there is no coalition in Rome willing or able to comply with the tough
conditions imposed by the EU at Berlin’s behest. Europe’s rescue strategy could
start to unravel.
Andrew
Roberts, credit chief at RBS, said: “What has happened in these elections is of
seismic importance.
“The ECB
rescue depends on countries doing what they are told. That has now been torn
asunder by domestic politics in Italy.
“The big
risk is that markets will start to doubt the credibility of the ECB’s pledge.”
It is a
widely shared view. Luigi Speranza, from BNP Paribas, said: “We fear the
markets could lose faith in the OMT’s effectiveness.”
Bond
buying under the OMT can begin only after countries in trouble request a rescue
from the EU’s bail-out fund under strict terms. This then requires a vote in
the Bundestag.
----Yet Italy is big enough to bring down the eurozone if mishandled. It is also the one Club Med country with enough fundamental strengths to leave EMU and devalue, if it concludes that would be the least painful way to restore 35pc of lost competitiveness against Germany since the launch of the euro.
It has
low private debt and €9 trillion of private wealth. Its total debt level is
265pc of GDP, lower than in France, Holland, the UK, the US or Japan.
Its
budget is near primary balance, and so is its International Investment
Position, in contrast to Spain and Portugal. It could in theory return to the
lira without facing a funding crisis, and this may be the only way to avoid a
crisis if the ECB withdraws support. Any attempt to force Italy to knuckle down
risks backfiring disastrously for EMU creditors.
More
Italy debt auction to show cost of political crisis
MILAN |(Reuters) - Italy will pay the price for its latest political crisis with higher borrowing costs on Wednesday when it sells longer-dated bonds to investors worried about an inconclusive election.
The vote cast over the weekend gave none of the political parties a parliamentary majority, raising the risk of prolonged instability and a rekindling the euro zone crisis.
The results, notably the dramatic surge of the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement of comic Beppe Grillo, left the center-left bloc with a majority in the lower house but without the numbers to control the upper chamber.
"Markets have been underpricing Italian political risk for months and are now struggling to come to terms with an extremely unstable and fluid political situation," said Nicholas Spiro, managing director of Spiro Sovereign Strategy.
As stunned parties look for a way forward after the
messy result, the treasury will seek to sell between 3 billion and 4 billion
euros of a new 10-year bond and between 1.75 and 2.5 billion euros of five-year
paper.
The sale
comes in a challenging environment as the outcome of a six-month bill sale and
a sell-off on secondary market showed on Tuesday.
"Italy's
debt market is facing its most serious challenge since the announcement of the
European Central Bank's bond-buying program last summer," said Spiro.
More
"Sooner or later both the Greek population and international creditors will tire of fighting a losing battle, leading to a break-up of the currency union as Greece pulls out, probably followed by other countries"
Douglas McWilliams, chief executive of the Centre of Economics and Business Research.
At the Comex silver depositories Tuesday final figures were: Registered 37.27
Moz, Eligible 124.61 Moz, Total 161.88 Moz.
Crooks and
Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
Today, Bloomberg
takes on the gold miners. For many it’s time to come clean about their true
cost of production. For many, especially in South Africa, it’s probably time to
close uneconomic mines. Investors looking for a gold mining company to invest
in, should take a good hard look at Canada’s African gold miner Semafo. Not just profitable successful miners, but
socially responsible ethical miners too. As always investors must do their own
due diligence. I have no connection with the company, but a lot of respect.
Gold Miners Come Clean on Costs After Lost 6 Years: Commodities
By Liezel Hill - Feb 27, 2013 3:31 AM GMT
The gold-mining industry, which has underperformed the precious metal for
each of the past six years, is pledging to report costs more accurately as part
of its efforts to win back investor confidence. Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) and Goldcorp Inc. (G), the two biggest producers by market value, have begun reporting “all-in sustaining costs” for the first time. The new measure averaged $941 an ounce between the two companies in the fourth quarter. That’s 50 percent higher than the $626 average so-called cash cost they disclosed in the preceding three months.
The largest gold companies are seeking to lure investors back to the $300 billion industry after a string of money-losing multibillion-dollar takeovers and over-budget projects. Barrick and its competitors are vowing to focus on margins and to get a grip on soaring production costs, rather than boosting output.
Gold producers “have really done themselves a huge disservice by effectively walking around for the last 12 years promoting the gross margin as opposed to the net or the operating margin,” said Joseph Wickwire, the Boston-based manager of Fidelity Investments’ $2.9 billion Select Gold Portfolio fund. “The managements and the boards of the gold companies really have no one to blame but themselves for some of the negative sentiment and disappointment.”
Earnings statements had previously carried so-called cash costs, based on a standard developed in the 1990s that excludes expenses such as exploration and waste-rock removal.
The 55-member S&P/TSX Global Gold Sector Index (SPTSGD) trailed gold each year in 2007 through 2012. The index declined 6.9 percent during that period while gold futures more than doubled in New York. Gold traded at $1,612.20 an ounce at 12:27 p.m. in Tokyo.
Gold has advanced for 12 successive years, driven at least in part by demand from investors looking for a store of wealth amid concern about inflation. Despite benefiting from that rally, gold producers’ margins have come under pressure from rising prices for labor, equipment and raw materials.
The average cash cost of 10 of the biggest gold miners was $694 an ounce in the third quarter, 49 percent higher than in the same period two years earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The average gold price rose 35 percent in the same comparison.
More
SEMAFO is a Canadian-based mining
company with gold production and exploration activities in West Africa. The
Corporation currently operates three gold mines: the Mana Mine in Burkina Faso,
the Samira Hill Mine in Niger and the Kiniero Mine in Guinea. SEMAFO is committed to evolve in a conscientious manner to
become a major player in its geographical area of interest. SEMAFO’s
strategic focus is to maximize shareholder value by effectively managing its
existing assets as well as pursuing organic and strategic growth opportunities.
"Of all the contrivances for cheating the laboring classes of mankind, none has been more effective than that which deludes them with paper money."
Daniel Webster
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished January:
DJIA: +106 Up. NASDAQ: +126 Up. SP500: +140 Up. All three indexes are giving the same signal,
up.
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