Geopolitical (Trade?) War(s.)

Baltic Dry Index 852 -53       Brent Crude    60.40

Trump 25 percent tariffs 31 days away.  Brexit 60 days away.

“The world is a place that’s gone from being flat to round to crooked.”

Mad Magazine.

Add geopolitical war to our unstable world of trade wars, currency wars and officially denied regime change in the Middle East. Add Venezuela to regime change too, although that is now official policy in Washington DC.

Former bus driver, and for now still Venezuelan President Maduro, isn’t likely to fare better than former CIA agent General Noriega, once President of Panama, although that took a US invasion in the end. For now, Washington’s hopes lie in cutting off Maduro’s source of foreign exchange.

Given that three million Venezuelans have already fled the collapsing economy, there’s a pretty good chance it will work, and that Venezuela’s military high command will switch sides in exchange for an amnesty. I suspect things will happen pretty fast if it’s going to peacefully happen at all.

Of greater concern this morning is the new geopolitical front the USA is opening up against China over Huawei. Officially of course, it’s just a run of the mill “rule of law, legal action,” though few inside or outside of the USA will see it that way.  It’s all part of a US led attempt to take down China’s Huawei and ZTE high tech companies now starting to beat silicon valley at their own game.

For now both sides pretend that it won’t impact on the new trade war talks about to start in Washington tomorrow.  We shall see. To this old dinosaur commodities trader and market watcher, it’s time to hope for the best but plan for the worst. Plan for a new global recession in 2019. The Baltic Dry Index seems to agree with me.

Asian markets fall amid worries that Huawei charges may hinder U.S.-China trade talks

By Associated Press and Marketwatch  Published: Jan 28, 2019 10:56 p.m. ET

Worrying Wall Street earnings also weigh on investors

Asian markets fell — though were last above session lows — on Tuesday after the U.S. Justice Department unsealed criminal charges against China’s Huawei, its subsidiaries and a top executive ahead of trade talks.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index NIK, -0.30%   slipped 0.7% and the Kospi SEU, -0.22%   in South Korea shed 0.2%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index HSI, -0.44%  was 0.5% lower and the Shanghai Composite index SHCOMP, -0.29%   fell 0.5%. Australia’s S&P ASX 200 XJO, -0.53%  , reopening after a holiday, eased 0.4%. Stocks fell in Taiwan Y9999, -0.83%   and Singapore STI, -0.55%   but rose in Indonesia JAKIDX, -0.37%  .

Among individual stocks, SoftBank Group 9984, +0.89%  , Sony 6758, -0.69%   and Nintendo 7974, +0.67%   declined in Tokyo trading. Samsung 005930, +0.22%   and steel maker Posco 005490, -0.93%   slipped in South Korea. Casino operator Galaxy Entertainment 0027, +0.49%   and Apple supplier AAC 2018, +0.63%   rose in Hong Kong, while Geely Automobile 0175, -4.70%   and oil producer CNOOC 0883, -2.61%   fell. Taiwan Semiconductor 2330, -2.62%   tumbled after reports that a chemical defect had damaged its production.

U.S. stocks fell Monday on signs that slowing Chinese growth was affecting corporate America. Caterpillar CAT, -9.13%  , considered an economic bellwether, reported weaker-than-expected earnings for the fourth quarter of 2018. The company said it expects the growth of construction equipment sales in China to be flat this year. Chipmaker Nvidia NVDA, -13.82%   slashed its fourth-quarter revenue estimate, citing slowing demand in China among other reasons. The S&P 500 index SPX, -0.78%   lost 0.8% to 2,643.85. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.84%   was down 0.8% at 24,528.22 and the Nasdaq composite COMP, -1.11%   gave up 1.1% to 7,085.68.

The U.S. criminal charges against Chinese tech giant Huawei allege that it violated U.S. sanctions by using a Hong Kong shell company to sell equipment in Iran. The company is also accused of stealing trade secrets, including technology behind a robotic device that T-Mobile TMUS, -1.26%   used to test smartphones. Several of Huawei’s subsidiaries and its chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou were to also face criminal charges. Meng was arrested while changing flights in Canada last month. China has demanded her release and warned of retaliation against American and Canadian executives.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said at a briefing Monday that President Donald Trump is set to meet Chinese Vice Premier Liu He in Washington. Negotiators from both countries are expected to sit down for two days of trade talks starting Wednesday. While a meeting with Trump may show that the U.S. is serious about striking a deal, charges against Huawei could cast a cloud over negotiations going forward.

Charges against Huawei “illustrate the risks attached to the U.S.-China relationship,” DBS Group Research strategists Philip Wee and Eugene Leow said in a commentary. “The actions by the DOJ show that it would not be enough for China to buy more U.S. goods. America wants China to make structural reforms especially on its intellectual property practices,” they added.

More

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-markets-fall-amid-worries-that-huawei-charges-may-hinder-us-china-trade-talks-2019-01-28

Huawei denies U.S. violations, ‘disappointed’ by criminal charges

By Associated Press  Published: Jan 28, 2019 11:57 p.m. ET

BEIJING — Chinese tech giant Huawei denied in a statement Tuesday that it committed any of the violations cited in U.S. indictments of company.

“The company denies that it or its subsidiary or affiliate have committed any of the asserted violations of US law set forth in each of the asserted violations,” the statement said.

---- The Justice Department unsealed criminal charges Monday against Huawei, a top company executive and several subsidiaries, alleging the company stole trade secrets, misled banks about its business and violated U.S. sanctions.

Read: U.S. announces set of indictments against Huawei ahead of trade talks with China

The sweeping indictments accuse the company of using extreme efforts to steal trade secrets from American businesses — including trying to take a piece of a robot from a T-Mobile lab.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/huawei-denies-us-violations-disappointed-by-criminal-charges-2019-01-28

As China, U.S. resume trade talks, few indications that a breakthrough is likely

By Bob Davis and Lingling Wei  Published: Jan 28, 2019 10:33 p.m. ET

WASHINGTON — Cabinet-level delegations from the U.S. and China will resume trade negotiations here Wednesday, but early indications are that the two sides remain sharply divided, suggesting a hard slog ahead for a deal to be cut before a March 1 deadline.

The Chinese delegation, dozens strong and led by Vice Premier Liu He, plans to offer a big increase in purchases of U.S. farm products and energy, along with modest reforms in industrial policies, said people in China who are closely following the talks. But Beijing will fight U.S. demands for deep structural changes in the Chinese economy, these people said. Those demands have included eliminating subsidies to favored industries, as well as regulatory help and other aid to Chinese companies, especially state-owned enterprises.

U.S. officials said a draft negotiating document laying out terms has yet to be assembled. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Monday he expects “significant progress” in this week’s talks, although U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on CNBC last week that the two sides remain “miles and miles” apart.

“One hope [for the talks] is to get a draft document on which two sides can negotiate an agreement,” said Hudson Institute China scholar Michael Pillsbury, who consults with the Trump team. That outcome is unlikely, he said, given the big gaps between the two sides.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-china-us-resume-trade-talks-few-indications-that-a-breakthrough-is-likely-2019-01-28

In other China news, the next global recession gets closer with each passing month.

More Chinese provinces cut growth targets this year as gloom spreads

January 29, 2019 / 3:26 AM

BEIJING (Reuters) - More Chinese provinces have cut their annual growth targets in 2019 than the year before, a sign of deepening pessimism among local governments amid weakening domestic demand and an prolonged trade dispute with the United States.

The lower regional targets reinforce expectations of a further slowdown in the world’s second-biggest economy this year, after 2018 gross domestic product expanded at its slowest pace in nearly three decades. 

Of China’s 31 provinces, regions and municipalities, at least 23 cut their economic growth targets for this year, according to provincial announcements this month. In 2018, 17 provinces set lower targets.

Shandong, China’s third-richest province, has yet to announce its 2019 target.

Five provinces - Sichuan, Hebei, Guizhou, Gansu and Hainan - kept their targets unchanged from last year. That compares with 12 provinces that maintained their targets in 2018.

Only one province - Hubei - raised its target, encouraged by an emerging high-tech manufacturing sector.

More

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-economy-gdp-provinces/more-chinese-provinces-cut-growth-targets-this-year-as-gloom-spreads-idUKKCN1PN08O?il=0

“The U.N. is a place where governments opposed to free speech demand to be heard.”

Mad Magazine.

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over banksters and politicians.

Below, what the elite think, from Davos. Probably already moot thanks to geopolitical war.

"We shouldn't pour cold water on everything.  We, the eight or nine players in global investment banking, have a very good future."

Deutsche Bank, CEO Josef Ackermann. Davos, January 2007.

Opinion: Three things I learned in Davos, where the exuberance of 2018’s WEF gathering was among the no-shows

By Huw van Steenis  Published: Jan 28, 2019 10:57 a.m. ET

Artificial intelligence replaced blockchain as the big conversational topic, second only to U.S.-China trade, writes senior adviser to the governor of the Bank of England

The mood at Davos was the most uncertain in years. U.S.-China trade tensions, slowing global growth, the backlash against big tech, volatile markets and political standoffs are sowing seeds of doubt with investors and business leaders. It’s a long way from the heady exuberance of a year ago.
Conversation the World Economic Forum’s annual gathering in the Swiss Alps was dominated not only by who was there but by who was not. Numerous political leaders stayed home. One investor argued we are seeing the biggest political and policy uncertainty since the 1970s.

Behind the scenes, I found three big themes with special relevance to finance:

1. How worried should we be about artificial intelligence?

AI has replaced blockchain as the big conversation for executives, second only to U.S.-China trade; there were 11 public sessions on AI, the most of any topic. Eighty-five percent of CEOs thought AI and machine learning from huge data sets would dramatically change their business over the next five years, according to a PwC report. But when asked if AI will displace more jobs than it creates, CEOs sat on the fence: 49% think yes, 41% no and 10% don’t know.

----2. Will big tech beat big finance?

There has been a sea change in recent years at Davos on the perceived threat from new tech-enabled models to impact banks’ profits. Bankers — and some policy makers — worry that new entrants could undercut banks’ profits and leave banks exposed with expensive legacy costs.

The battle between every startup and financial institution comes down to whether the former gets distribution before the incumbent gets innovation. The largest global banks at Davos are dramatically upping their game on digital transformation spending and cyber defences. Little wonder that many of the fintechs that haven’t yet got scale are now looking to partner instead of trying to be disrupters.

But the speed of growth and size of some of the new firms is giving bankers pause for thought. In China, leading platforms have already moved into banking and insurance at scale. Chinese payment firm Ant Financial just passed one billion customers — five times more than Citigroup C, -0.19%  . It’s the threat from large platforms becoming more active in financial services that keeps the finance bosses at Davos on their toes.

More

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/three-thinks-i-learned-in-davos-where-the-exuberance-of-2018s-wef-gathering-had-dissipated-2019-01-28

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21^st century onwards?

Innovative technique could pave way for new generation of flexible electronic components

Date: January 24, 2019

Source: University of Exeter

Summary: Researchers have developed an innovative technique that could help create the next generation of everyday flexible electronics.

A team of engineering experts have pioneered a new way to ease production of van der Waals heterostructures with high-K dielectrics- assemblies of atomically thin two-dimensional (2-D) crystalline materials.

One such 2-D material is graphene, which comprises of a honeycomb-shaped structure of carbon atoms just one atom thick.

While the advantages of van der Waals heterostructures is well documented, their development has been restricted by the complicated production methods.

Now, the research team has developed a new technique that allows these structures to achieve suitable voltage scaling, improved performance and the potential for new, added functionalities by embedding a high-K oxide dielectric.

The research could pave the way for a new generation of flexible fundamental electronic components.

The research is published in the journal Science Advances.

Dr Freddie Withers, co-author of the paper and from the University of Exeter said: "Our method to embed a laser writable high-K dielectric into various van der Waals heterostructure devices without damaging the neighbouring 2D monolayer materials opens doors for future practical flexible van der Waals devices such as, field effect transistors, memories, photodetectors and LED's which operate in the 1-2 Volt range"

The quest to develop microelectronic devices to increasingly smaller size underpins the progress of the global semiconductor industry -- a collection of companies that includes the tech and communication giants Samsung and Toshiba -- has been stymied by quantum mechanical effects.

This means that as the thickness of conventional insulators is reduced, the ease at which electrons can escape through the films.

In order to continue scaling devices ever smaller, researchers are looking at replacing conventional insulators with high-dielectric-constant (high-k) oxides. However, commonly used high-k oxide deposition methods are not directly compatible with 2D materials.

The latest research outlines a new method to embed a multi-functional, nanoscaled high-K oxide, only a within van der Waals devices without degrading the properties of the neighbouring 2D materials.

More

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/01/190124095148.htm?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+sciencedaily%2Fmatter_energy%2Fgraphene+%28Graphene+News+--+ScienceDaily%29

Why did I take up stealing? To live better, to own things I couldn't afford, to acquire this good taste that you now enjoy and which I should be very reluctant to give up.

Cary Grant. To Catch A Thief.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished December.

DJIA: 23,327 +115 Down. NASDAQ: 6,635 +152 Down. SP500: 2,507 +90 Down. 

Normally this would suggest more correction still to come, but with President Trump wanting to be judged by the performance of the stock market and his Treasury Secretary activating the Plunge Protection Team after the Christmas Eve Crash, will a politicised PPT cover the President’s back? [Yes] Probably the safest action here is fully paid up synthetic double options on most of the major indexes.

Hopefully a USA – China trade deal reinvigorates the markets, but failure and 25 percent tariffs, is a market killer.

USA v China Round 6? An Interesting Week.

Baltic Dry Index 905 -34       Brent Crude    61.00

Trump 25 percent tariffs 32 days away.  Brexit 61 days away.

As usual the Liberals offer a mixture of sound and original ideas. Unfortunately none of the sound ideas is original and none of the original ideas is sound.

Prime Minister Harold MacMillan

An interesting week ahead. The US Government reopens. China v USA trade talks resume in Washington.  The Federal Reserve holds its first meeting of 2019, though it’s expected to remain firmly in President Trump’s camp and leave its key interest rate unchanged. Apple and Microsoft report results during the week. Brexit gets another round of voting in the UK Parliament.  The EU – Japan trade treaty comes into effect on February 1^st. The USA seems to be lining up allies in South America to invade Venezuela.

Below stocks in Asia cautiously probe higher. 

Stocks advance after U.S. government reopens for now

January 28, 2019 / 12:41 AM

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian stocks advanced on Monday as Wall Street rallied after a deal was announced to reopen the U.S. government following a prolonged shutdown that had taken a toll on investor sentiment.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan climbed 0.4 percent.

The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.7 percent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up 0.5 percent.

South Korea’s KOSPI edged up 0.1 percent, while Japan’s Nikkei bucked the trend and eased 0.3 percent. Australian financial markets were shut for their ‘Australia Day’ holiday.Facing mounting pressure, U.S. President Donald Trump agreed on Friday to temporarily end a 35-day-old partial U.S. government shutdown without getting the $5.7 billion he had demanded from Congress for a border wall.

In response Wall Street rallied broadly on Friday as investors were relieved to see an end to one of the longest U.S. government shutdown in history.

---- “The rise in the broader stock markets looks to keep going. The U.S. government reopening is definitely a plus for market sentiment,” said Soichiro Monji, senior economist at Daiwa SB Investments.

“There are still potential risk factors, such as the U.S.-China trade row and Brexit,” he said.

Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will visit the United States on Jan. 30-31 for the next round of trade negotiations with Washington.

More

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-markets/stocks-advance-after-u-s-government-reopens-for-now-idUKKCN1PM011

White House lifts sanctions on firms linked to Putin ally

Date created : 28/01/2019 - 05:19

The Treasury Department on Sunday announced it was lifting sanctions on three companies connected to Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska.

The move comes despite an effort in Congress to block the action with many lawmakers concerned that the Trump administration is not being tough enough on Russian President Vladimir Putin and his allies.

Treasury said it was removing Russian aluminum giant Rusal and two other companies from its sanctions list on the grounds that the companies have reduced Derapaska's direct and indirect shareholding stake in the three companies.

Congress voted earlier this month to try to block the administration's efforts to remove the sanctions. In the House, 136 Republicans joined Democrats to disapprove the deal while in the Senate 11 Republicans supported the move but fell short of the 60 votes needed.

The two votes represented a major break in the solid GOP backing Trump has enjoyed in his first two years as president and sent a strong signal that congressional Republicans are willing to split with the White House on national security matters.

In its brief statement, Treasury said that Rusal and the other two companies, En+ Group and EuroSiobEnergo had severed Derapaska's control.

"This action ensures that the majority of directors on the En+ and Rusal boards will be independent directors ... who have no business, professional or family ties to Deripaska," Treasury said.

The statement also said that the companies had agreed to "unprecedented transparency for Treasury into their operations by undertaking extensive, ongoing auditing, certification and reporting requirements."

---- The sanctions against Rusal had raised worries in global markets about the loss of aluminum production from the company, the world's second largest producer of aluminum.

https://www.france24.com/en/20190128-trump-white-house-lifts-sanctions-firms-linked-russia-putin-ally-oleg-deripaska-rusal

Businesses struggle as cracks appear in China's economy

Date created : 27/01/2019 - 05:12

Cracks are opening in China's mighty economy: investors are backing away from deals, factories are moving abroad and companies are shedding jobs.

The world's second-largest economy is losing steam, hitting its slowest growth in almost three decades last year, and flagging further in recent months.

While gross domestic product grew at 6.6 percent in 2018 -- a rate that would be the envy of most nations -- China's efforts to cut its debt mountain have weighed on the economy.

Private businesses in particular face new hurdles as costs rise and financing becomes harder to come by, while the trade war with the United States has not helped.

Here is a look at some of the struggles faced by Chinese companies and people:

- Game over for gamers -

Feeding China's addiction to video games seemed an easy bet for Beijing Yixin Technology, a tech startup behind the mobile game Farm Take Home.

The game allows players to harvest wheat, raise chickens and plant apple trees -- a bucolic refuge from the pressures of urban China.

But in real life, the tech firm has struggled to find investors.

"In December our company's funding ran out, we had an investment lined up, but the money never came through," said chairman Cui Yi.

"This month I arranged another investor, then he backed out too. I think we can't hold out."

His company is not alone.

Venture capital funding dried up at the end of last year. Total investment in the fourth quarter fell 13 percent from a year earlier, according to data from Preqin market research.

----- Trade war -

Other companies are facing the fallout from the trade war with the United States.

More than a handful of exporters have sought to get around US tariffs by building factories outside China, according to a review of public stock filings.

Others are sending workers home early for Chinese New Year or cutting overtime.

Last month China's exports fell.

"It has hit our profits," Harry Shih, manager of Runfine Bearings in eastern Zhejiang province, said of the trade war.

More

https://www.france24.com/en/20190127-businesses-struggle-cracks-appear-chinas-economy

US, China resume high-stakes poker in trade talks

Date created : 27/01/2019 - 02:43

With a month left in their truce, senior US and Chinese officials will meet in Washington this week, hoping to move toward a bargain to end their unprecedented trade war.

Beijing's trade envoy, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, will lead a 30-person delegation at the invitation 

of US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, who is heading up the American effort.

At a meeting in Argentina last month, US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping agreed to bury the hatchet provisionally -- with Trump delaying a sharp increase on US duties for $200 billion in Chinese goods until March 1.

Washington has made its demands clear: China must agree to far-reaching "structural" reforms in its trade practices, curbing massive state intervention in markets and the alleged theft of American technological know-how, including through hacking and the forced transfer of intellectual property.

Trump also wants to cut the soaring US trade deficit with China, which in 2017 hit a record $375 billion, not including trade in services.

Since last year, the world's two largest economies have exchanged tit-for-tat tariffs on more than $360 billion in two-way trade, with the largest amount, more than $250 billion, imposed by Washington.

The American president's protectionist moves have begun to weigh on the Chinese economy, which last year posted its slowest economic growth in nearly three decades, causing Trump to claim he has the upper hand in the talks.

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said Thursday Washington and Beijing remained "miles and miles" from the finish line in their talks, cautioning against putting too much hope for a final resolution at this week's talks.

"I think next week's negotiations will be critical in determining whether the Chinese are willing to talk about any of the structural issues the United States is concerned about," Edward Alden, a trade expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, told AFP.

- 'Made in China 2025' -

Early this month, Chinese officials signaled they were open to reducing the trade imbalance but there has been scant sign of movement on Washington's tougher demands.

A deal could be especially hard to reach should Beijing prove unwilling to cede any ground on the state subsidies at the heart of Xi's vision for industrial pre-eminence.

"It will be very difficult to reach an agreement unless the Chinese are willing to address some of those issues," said Alden.

The Chinese are likely to reject any US demand seen as an obstacle to the "Made in China 2025" strategic plan, according to Alden.

More

https://www.france24.com/en/20190127-us-china-resume-high-stakes-poker-trade-talks

Finally, Reuters takes a look at the week ahead.

Take Five: Time for a break? World markets themes for the week ahead

January 25, 2019 / 1:55 PM

LONDON (Reuters) - Following are five big themes likely to dominate thinking of investors and traders in the coming week and the Reuters stories related to them.

AND SO BEGINS THE PAUSE

The U.S. Federal Reserve convenes its first monetary policy meeting of 2019 after hiking rates for a fifth time in as many quarters in December. But while it has forecast two more hikes for 2019, the darkening global economic outlook, convulsing stock markets and a record-long government shutdown are clouding the policy picture.

Now, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is preaching “patience” with regard to future rate increases, and he’s been joined by two other governors and all 12 Fed regional bank presidents.

---- OH CHINA, WHERE ART THOU?

Alarm bells from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are still ringing in investors’ ears, after the Fund cut global growth forecasts, warning in particular that failure to resolve trade tensions could further destabilise the world economy. So markets will focus on Chinese manufacturing data due on Thursday and Friday to glean how the world’s number two economy is faring.

---- PLAN B FOR BREXIT

Another week, another vote. On Jan 29, Britain’s parliament will debate Prime Minister Theresa May’s proposed next Brexit steps as well as alternative plans put forward by lawmakers, including some that seek to delay Britain’s March 29 exit from the EU.

---- TORRID TECH TIMES?

Results from Apple on Tuesday and Microsoft on Wednesday will be high on the agenda as global tech struggles to recover from a tumultuous end of 2018 that saw tumbling shares and sharp downgrades to earnings expectations.

The updates from the two U.S. giants follows a string of dour numbers from chipmakers across the globe, signalling more gloom in coming months for the once-high-flying sector.

More

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-markets-themes/take-five-time-for-a-break-world-markets-themes-for-the-week-ahead-idUKKCN1PJ1IK

The wise man does at once what the fool does finally.

Niccolo Machiavelli

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over banksters and politicians.

In most of Europe, the Euro “Bin Laden” banknote comes to an end. Allegedly the favourite of tax dodgers, criminals and terrorists, in Europe they’ll just have to go back to swapping stolen old masters and other art treasures, I suppose. Better get a whole load more CCTV cameras for Italy’s churches.

Mixed emotions in Germany as 500-euro note bows out

Date created : 27/01/2019 - 04:48

As the ECB takes the final step in phasing out the 500-euro note, few are expected to mourn a bill favoured by criminals but rarely seen in daily life.

Except perhaps in cash-loving Germany.

Only the German and Austrian central banks are clinging on a while longer, until April 26, to "ensure a smooth transition", the European Central Bank said in a statement.

Medical technician Rolf, from the German town of Marburg, said he found the demise of the single currency's highest-denomination note "hard to accept".

Standing a stone's throw from Frankfurt's blue-and-yellow euro sculpture after a meeting in the city, the 61-year-old said he had made a point of paying for his car in 500s.

"I prefer using cash for large payments, it doesn't mean I'm involved in anything dodgy," Rolf said, declining to give his last name.

The ECB decision to end the note's issuance will lead to fewer and fewer circulating as commercial banks gradually return them to their countries' central banks, where they will be replaced by lower-denomination bills.

But anyone hoarding 500s under their mattress needn't worry, as all existing bills remain legal tender.

"They can continue to be used to spend or to save, and they will always retain their value," said ECB spokeswoman Eva Taylor.

The 500-euro bill accounted for just 2.3 percent of all euro notes in circulation last month.

- The 'Bin Laden' -

The banknote's death warrant was signed in 2016 when the ECB formally ended its production over concerns it could "facilitate illegal activities" after research linked its use to money laundering, tax evasion and terrorism financing.

Sometimes dubbed the "Bin Laden", the note has proved a compact way to transport illicit money.

A million euros in 500-euro notes weighs just 2.2 kilogrammes (4.8 pounds), fitting easily into a laptop bag.

The same sum in $100 bills, the US currency's highest denomination, would weigh almost six times as much and require a much larger case.

While the plan to slowly kill off the 500 made few waves abroad, it sparked an emotional debate in Germany where many feared it was a prelude to abolishing cash altogether.

Among the fiercest opponents was Jens Weidmann, chief of Germany's powerful Bundesbank central bank, who said scrapping the note would do little to combat crime but could "damage trust" in the single currency.

Critics also said the move would make it more difficult and expensive for banks to physically store large amounts of cash in order to bypass negative interest rates.

The ECB's deposit rate currently stands at minus 0.4 percent, meaning banks pay to park excess funds with the Frankfurt institution.

More

https://www.france24.com/en/20190127-mixed-emotions-germany-500-euro-note-bows-out

One who deceives will always find those who allow themselves to be deceived.

Niccolo Machiavelli

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21^st century onwards?

'GO dough' makes graphene easy to shape and mold

New form of graphene oxide is fun to play with -- and solves manufacturing challenges

Date: January 25, 2019

Source: Northwestern University

Summary: A team has turned graphene oxide into a soft, moldable and kneadable play dough that can be shaped and reshaped into free-standing, three-dimensional structures.

Called "GO dough," the product might be fun to play with it, but it's more than a toy. The malleable material solves several long-standing -- and sometimes explosive -- problems in the graphene manufacturing industry.

"Currently graphene oxide is stored as dry solids or powders, which are prone to combustion," said Jiaxing Huang, who led the study. "Or they have to be turned into dilute dispersions, which multiply the material's mass by hundreds or thousands."

Huang recounted his most recent shipment of 5 kilograms of graphene oxide, which was dispersed in 500 liters of liquid. "It had to be delivered in a truck," he said. "The same amount of graphene oxide in dough form would weigh about 10 kilograms, and I could carry it myself."

The research was published today (Jan. 24) in the journal Nature Communications. Huang is a professor of materials science and engineering in Northwestern's McCormick School of Engineering.

Graphene oxide, which is a product of graphite oxidation, is often used to make graphene, a single-atom-layer thick sheet of carbon that is remarkably strong, lightweight and has potential for applications in electronics and energy storage.

Just add water

Huang's team made GO dough by adding an ultra-high concentration of graphene oxide to water. If the team had used binding additives, they would have had to further process the material to remove these additives in order to return graphene oxide to its pure form.

"Adding binders such as plastics could turn anything into a dough state," Huang said. "But these additives often significantly alter the material's properties."

After being shaped into structures, the dough can be converted into dense solids that are electrically conductive, chemically stable and mechanically hard. Or, more water can be added to the dough to transform it into a high-quality GO dispersion on demand. The dough can also be processed further to make bulk graphene oxide and graphene materials of different forms with tunable microstructures. Huang hopes that GO dough's ease of use could help graphene meet its much-anticipated potential as a super material.

"My dream is to turn graphene-based sheets into a widely accessible, readily usable engineering material, just like plastic, glass and steel," Huang said. "I hope GO dough can help inspire new uses of graphene-based materials, just like how play dough can inspire young children's imagination and creativity."

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/01/190125172942.htm?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+sciencedaily%2Fmatter_energy%2Fgraphene+%28Graphene+News+--+ScienceDaily%29

The promise given was a necessity of the past: the word broken is a necessity of the present.

Niccolo Machiavelli

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished December.

DJIA: 23,327 +115 Down. NASDAQ: 6,635 +152 Down. SP500: 2,507 +90 Down. 

Normally this would suggest more correction still to come, but with President Trump wanting to be judged by the performance of the stock market and his Treasury Secretary activating the Plunge Protection Team after the Christmas Eve Crash, will a politicised PPT cover the President’s back? [Yes] Probably the safest action here is fully paid up synthetic double options on most of the major indexes.

Hopefully a USA – China trade deal reinvigorates the markets, but failure and 25 percent tariffs, is a market killer.